‘Giving him the business’: College football’s most iconic call
“You’re a football ref, an ordinary man, 60, 65 years old. You’re not making the big millions like the football players, but you’ve got one thing. You’ve got a button on a belt. And you know that all you’ve got to do is click that puppy on and for the first time in your whole stupid life, the entire country is listening to every word that comes out of your mouth.” — comedian Richard Jeni at the 1995 ESPYS
The job of an official is to blend into the scenery. Manage the game, throw the flags and, unless you make a particularly egregious mistake, you’re forgotten. There are moments in every game, however, when the referee flicks a switch on his belt, activating a microphone, and the entire audience — thousands in the stands and perhaps millions more on TV — hang on his every word.
This is the story of how former ACC referee Ron Cherry used one of those moments in an otherwise forgettable 2007 game between Maryland and NC State to make arguably the most famous call in college football history …
Ron Cherry, former ACC referee
Going into Raleigh was always one of my favorite places to officiate a football game. But this was a dreary Saturday, and Maryland was putting the wood to them.
Tom O’Brien, former NC State coach
We were 5-6 with a chance to maybe get to a bowl game, which would’ve been a pretty big accomplishment. We’d lost nine starters. But we just played a lousy game. We acted like we didn’t even want to win that game.
Kalani Heppe, former NC State offensive lineman
It was senior day. We were supposed to win, and for whatever reason, nothing worked.
Steve Martin, play-by-play broadcaster for Lincoln Financial Network
Ron Cherry was one of the top officials in the ACC, and I questioned, why did he get this game? Wasn’t Clemson playing somebody that day?
Mike Wooten, ACC official
Usually when you have games that are lopsided like that. you have to interject yourself a lot more because there’s some extracurricular activities.
Cherry
We get a little later into the ballgame and I hear someone saying, “Ref, dammit, he can’t do that.” I looked down in the pile and I didn’t see it, but I told the player, “Maybe I missed that.”
Kevin Barnes, former Maryland defensive back
I remember it got a little chippy maybe two plays prior to it. At least seven or eight people got into it a little.
Heppe
Old Kevin, every time we’d run a sweep to the left, he’d come up and cut my knees out.
Cherry
Sure as hell, a play or two later, they get started again, and this time I saw it. So I threw the flag.
Andre Brown, former NC State running back
This was such a crappy game, but then you had to laugh. Like, what did Ron Cherry just call? It was the most ridiculous thing we’d ever heard.
Cherry
I flipped the mic and made the announcement, I just said, “Personal foul, No. 69, offense. He was giving him the business.” … And once you communicate it out, it’s out there and you can’t get it back. And it was out there and got a lot of mileage.
Cherry was in the Air Force when he officiated his first football game. When he was discharged and returned home to Virginia, he took a job with Norfolk Southern railroad and found extra work calling high school games for $2 or $3 a night. “I was on cloud nine,” Cherry said, “because it was an opportunity to be part of the game.” Cherry began his ACC career in 1993 and served as referee for the first time in Georgia Tech‘s 1994 game against Western Carolina, a day so hot Cherry thought he might pass out on the field, and a game so wild that “every penalty in the book, we called.”
Cherry
I came in as a side judge. The second season we had this roundtable meeting in Charlottesville with all the officials assembled. At the end of the meeting, [Brandon Faircloth] walked out and said, “Walk with me, Ron.” I said, “Oh hell, I’m about to get fired.” He said, “Ron, I want to make you a referee.” I don’t know if all the color drained out of my body.
John Swofford, former ACC commissioner
He could manage his crew, deal with coaches, knew the rules tremendously well but, beyond that, you really have to have common sense and know how to manage situations, and over the years, he just developed such a rapport with people and a respect from people.
Cherry
I talked to a lot of players, just as I would anybody else. I tried to call them by name if I could, and they called me Ron. It wasn’t “Mr. Ron.” It was, “Hey Ron.” And I was happy with that because it made us equal components in a lot of ways.
Brown
I did not like Ron Cherry. I felt like he was always out to get me. Like, “We’ve got Ron Cherry here, I’ve got to make sure my uniform’s right. I’ve got to make sure I get back to the huddle in a calm manner.” My cheerfulness and all the swag I claimed I had at the time, I had to straighten up and fly right around him. If I was cursing, “Hey buddy, that’s enough of that.”
Pat Ryan, ACC official
Let me tell you, he expected excellence on the field. I saw him undress officials. I saw him undress people that were auxiliary. We were at TCU one time and he ran the alternate box guy out. That’s the guy on the other side of the chains that keeps track of where the ball is. He wasn’t doing his job, and right in the middle of the game, Ron said, “OK, you’re out of here.” He ran the guy off and they stopped the game until they could find another guy.
Swofford
I would tell young officials, “Go watch and listen to Ron Cherry and do your best to emulate him and you’ll be a heck of an official.”
Ryan
There was a coach from Boston College, and they said, “Be ready. He’s going to be ornery.” Sure enough, Ron goes over there, and the first thing he says, “I’m going to have five captains.” Ron says, “No, you can only have four captains.” I got away from it, and then next thing I know, I look over, and they’re arm-in-arm, hugging and giggling. And guess what? They only brought out four captains.
If Cherry was known as a no-nonsense official on the field, off it, he was the closest thing referees had to a rock star. He was well known as one of the first and most prominent Black officials for a major conference, and his style — a Southern twang and sharp, emphatic signals — made him a household name.
Cherry
In the early days, I always wanted to be talking to the television, to the person that’s at home, since they didn’t have the benefit of being here in the stadium, giving them some clarity in a brief, concise way.
Doc Walker, TV analyst
I looked forward to his games because he had a personality. He wasn’t a clone or a cyborg.
Barnes
He was always a cool ref, always very animated every game. I don’t know every ref I played, but he’s definitely one that stood out, so the fact that he was the one to make that call, I’m not surprised at all because he has that type of personality.
Mack Brown, former Texas head coach and current North Carolina head coach
He had the best voice that there has ever been for a college official.
Rick Page, ACC official
He had that enunciation that seemed to stand out more than anybody else. And he wasn’t showboating; that was just his natural way of addressing the fouls.
Cherry
My girls would tell me, “Daddy, you sound so country,” and I’d say, “What? No way.”
Ryan
Ron was a character of the game, and he loved it. We’d walk through airports, and he’d split the crowds — just, “That’s Ron Cherry, that’s Ron Cherry.” People loved him. Everybody knew him. A lot of the African American people that worked at the stadium would come down and hug him.
Cherry
We can’t all be clones. I’m over 6 feet, African American, long arms and long legs. There’s not a lot of places I can hide once I get out there. So you accept what you have.
Swofford
He was a bit of a trailblazer. From a minority standpoint, he was, relatively early on, one of the most visible and prominent and respected minority officials on the field, which I’m sure inspired many others. His leadership in that aspect of it is really immeasurable.
Cherry
I never thought of myself as being anything other than an official. I was doing a job. It wasn’t that I was Ron, the Afro American referee. That wasn’t how I saw myself. I knew that there was not a lot of minorities, when I first started, that had those opportunities. And it wasn’t always easy for me, but if I made it look easy, maybe it would give them some confidence to make them think they could do the same. But it wasn’t just African Americans. It was anybody. I’m just a football official. I don’t have time to sort out all that other stuff, not during this game.
Cherry simply liked people, and because of that, he made friends quickly. Nearly everyone who worked with him has a Ron Cherry story.
Cherry
My personality, you could turn the switch — Clark Kent into Superman and then turn back. I felt like my part was, maybe it’s like a guy who does the news or a disc jockey on a radio station, where every day he’s just happy-go-lucky, which I was. I liked to cut up and mean mug and do all those crazy things, but when it was time to turn the mic on, hell, I can remember thinking, “Why am I looking so serious all of a sudden?”
Dr. Jerry McGee, former official
Ron was really, really serious about the job at hand, but he also had some fun with it. We had a really bang-bang play downfield and I didn’t have any help, and it went against the home team. The crowd was going nuts. I was standing 40 yards downfield, and I cut my eyes back to Ron, and he blew me a kiss. Like 80,000 fans here are mad but I still love you.
Bill LeMonnier, former Big Ten official and current ESPN analyst
My granddaughter was watching a game and when I came on, she said, “There’s Grandpa.” Then the next game comes on, and that’s Ron’s game. When he gets on the mic, sure enough, she yells, “There’s Grandpa.” So I called Ron up and told him about it. “She called you Grandpa. Can you explain that to me?” He said, “Well, I’m just going to take that as a compliment, Bill, and if you have any other questions, you can contact my lawyer.” We had a good laugh over that and we’ve even told it when we’ve done some clinics together that he was my granddaughter’s real grandpa.
Ryan
He was the type of guy, the people cleaning our rooms, he’d talk to them like they were his brother. And then we’d go to a game at SMU and George Bush would show up with Laura, and he could just swoon them. He can relate to anybody. That’s his biggest forte, and that helped him on the field, too.
Cherry
George Bush and his wife were going to walk out to midfield with me and we sat there and talked with the president for more than 30 minutes. … [After the coin toss], I got the coin off the ground and presented it to the president and said, “Thank you for what you do, and thank you for your service.” And this is true. He says, “Right on, brother.” I had goose bumps.
If his colleagues were familiar with his quirks and charm before, the rest of the country learned on Nov. 24, 2007. With Maryland leading 37-0, Cherry flipped on the mic at Carter-Finley Stadium and delivered a call for the ages.
It was second-and-7, and Andre Brown took the pitch for a sweep to the left. Heppe was the pulling guard on the play, and once again, he was met by Barnes in the backfield and then “The business” ensued.
Andrew Redfern, former NC State offensive lineman and Heppe’s roommate
It couldn’t have happened to a more perfect teammate.
Heppe
My roommate was on the bench, and I was like, “You know, I’ve done about everything you can on a football field. I’ve gotten interceptions, recovered fumbles, sacks, touchdowns. I’ve never been kicked out of a game. I’m getting kicked out.”
Redfern
He was getting pretty irate. He’d come to his wit’s end and was ready to go.
Heppe
The parents section is right behind the away team’s bench. After the last game, you go over and give your mom flowers and your jersey. And Fern says, “If you get kicked out, you’re not going to be able to give your mom your jersey.” No, I’m getting my mom my jersey, and furthermore, I’m walking back to the tunnel wearing my knee braces and my girdle and everything else is going up in the stands. This is going to be a production.
Ralph Friedgen, former Maryland head coach
We blitzed the guy off the edge. They ran a sweep and pulled the guard, and our guy cut the guard, which he’s supposed to do — take out the interference so someone else can make the play.
Andre Brown, NC State running back
The sweep play was my play. That’s how we were getting yardage for most of the season, and Kalani was a pulling guard.
Heppe
I see Kevin kind of scooting up a little bit and I think, “Game time. Here we go.”
Barnes
I’m a corner and if you’re pulling on me, our job was to take out their knees or they would essentially run through us and pancake us. I’m not going to let you pancake me.
Heppe
We snap the ball, I pull, he goes straight for the knee. And I just reach back and right hook straight up in the jaw line. It was blatant. And I looked straight up at Ron. Ron kind of always had my number anyway. He’s funny as hell, don’t get me wrong, but for whatever reason, Ron really enjoyed throwing flags on me. So this happens, I jack him in the jaw, get up and try to act like nothing’s happened, all nonchalant.
Barnes
I try to roll over, and I couldn’t get up. I’m literally looking at the sky. It’s a cloudy Saturday afternoon. And I can’t get up. I give him credit. He kept it PG-13 and above the waist. He’s giving me body shots and I’m like, “Ref, I really can’t get up.” And I’m just thinking, there’s no way possible they can’t see this.
Cherry
I had a flashback to the late 1950s and early ’60s, there was a series, “Leave It to Beaver” and Wally always used to tease The Beaver about giving him the business. And without even thinking, I said, “Well, that’s the business down there.”
Wooten
He would use that phrase a lot in our pregames — like, “If somebody’s giving him the business, we need to catch that” — and I guess in that moment of deciding what to announce, he used that phrase, and it was kind of poetic.
Walker
Some of the best things are ad-libbed. They’re floating around. They don’t come from nowhere. But the moment comes up and then you put it all together.
On the TV broadcast, Martin notes a flag in the backfield, but quickly switches gears to discuss the litany of injuries sustained by NC State that season. Barnes listens in on the discussion between officials and walks away clapping, knowing Heppe has finally been caught. Cherry steps forward, clicks on his mic, and out it comes: “Personal foul. 69. Offense. He was giving him the business. Replay the down.” The crowd goes wild, and Martin begins cackling and quips, “Ron Cherry with the quote of the year.”
O’Brien
The announcers on the call, I thought, did a great job. “Where’s that in the rulebook?” I thought that was good.
Gary Hahn, NC State radio voice
Nobody’s ever heard an official say that before, or at least I never had. He explained it but he didn’t explain it. I heard the crowd chuckling a little bit. The first thing that came to my mind was somebody’s either biting or kicking or gouging.
Friedgen
I had my family ask me after the game, “I never heard that penalty called before.” I said, “Neither did I.”
Johnny Holliday, Maryland radio voice
Both of us just kind of said, “Did we hear what we thought we heard?” And it’s all we could do to contain ourselves because I thought it was great.
Barnes
I walk away clapping because they caught him in the act. I was literally getting the business. That’s the great thing about the call is it fit the description perfectly. Growing up in football, coaches always tell you when there’s a scrum at the bottom of a pile, you’ve got to protect yourself. And at that moment, I remember thinking, “This is what they were talking about.”
Heppe
I came off after that three-and-out and Fern was just laughing his ass off — just this uncontrollable chortle coming out of him. Our coach comes up — it was Don Horton. Don comes up and says, “Hep, what do you have to do to give someone the business?”
Andre Brown
I just remember that baffled moment in the huddle. We were all talking like, “What just happened?”
Cherry
I turned the mic off and thought, “Why are those people laughing up in the stands?” It just didn’t register. Guys in the crew were looking at me and I was thinking, “What the hell is going on?”
Wooten
After he announced the penalty, I heard the crowd react, but I didn’t listen because I was walking off the yardage. When I got to the locker room, my phone was blowing up with messages like, “I can’t believe he said that.” I look at Ron and asked, “What did you say?” He told me, and I about fell out of my chair.
Heppe
I’m waiting for “player is ejected,” but then he comes out with “giving him the business.” And apparently the whole crowd is chanting “Giving him the business! Giving him the business!” I hear none of this because I am calling Ron every name in the book besides an upstanding gentleman. I completely ransacked Ron Cherry.
Andre Brown
Adrenaline going, all that stuff, and I just remember Kalani saying explicit words.
Heppe
We go three-and-out like we had most of the afternoon, and then we go to punt, and I just started in on him again. And he starts trotting off the field. We’re stride for stride, and he looks at me and says, “6-9, you can say whatever you want to me, but you’re finishing this game, son.” Well, s—. It wasn’t his first rodeo.
Cherry
I wouldn’t throw him out. When you’re in a ballgame, you feel the emotions — the ebbs and flows. To me, it was one of those situations where the foul, in my opinion, the score, the time in the ball game, it wasn’t something I wasn’t going to do.
O’Brien
That was the good thing about the call and one thing about Ron. He looked at the situation and saw a knucklehead doing a knucklehead thing and decided, “I’m not going to throw him out. I’m just going to penalize him and tell him to get back in the huddle,” which he did.
The game ended with Maryland winning 37-0. NC State’s season was over, but the legend of Cherry was just beginning.
Heppe
I was in there first thing Sunday morning to watch film. I was a little hungover. And actually one of my family friends came with me and was like, “Bro, just go straight to the play. We can always rewind it back.” You can see it a little bit on the YouTube clip. You see that right hand come back and his head jerk. But on the south end zone view, it’s pretty rough.
Barnes
That Monday, it was a big joke — especially in the DB room. It’s hard to keep a lot of DBs serious at one time.
Cherry
The next morning, we go to the airport, get on the airplane and this lady sitting up front is saying, “That’s him! That’s him! That’s the guy who said ‘Giving him the business.'” I thought, what is she talking about? Because it still didn’t register. I get home and my daughter calls me and said, “Daddy, it’s on YouTube.” And I said, “What is YouTube?”
Ryan
Next thing I know, on Sunday, I get a call from one of the guys and they go, “It’s got 2 million hits already.”
Cherry
I went to the damn link and said, “Oh s—.” Then it started. People were wearing me out with it.
Holliday
I’m sure he didn’t do it for attention, that’s the last thing on his mind. But he did it because that’s what came to his mind, and nobody else in the country did what he did, and it made national news.
Heppe
It was on VH1’s “Best Week Ever.” Jimmy Kimmel talked about it. Jim Rome. The press it got, and this is before everybody had camera phones and social media around the world and everything else. I can’t imagine what it would be like now, but it was crazy.
Mack Brown
We all got a big chuckle out of it, especially from him because he was just being Ron Cherry.
Cherry
The next morning, I’m in the office, and one of my clients calls and says, “Ron, you’re all over the place.” I said, “It’ll go away by day’s end. Nobody will stay with that thing.” And sure enough my boss calls on the football side of things and asks what was that all about.
Swofford
I was asked, “Should we do something about it?” I said, “What do you mean do something about it? That’s one of the great descriptions on television ever. We’re going to applaud him.”
Cherry
The next weekend’s assignment, I couldn’t go anywhere — the hotel, restaurants, on the radio they were saying it.
Heppe
A friend of mine was working the sideline for a game the following year. [Cherry] was working the game, and she went up to him and said, “You don’t know me but I believe you know one of my friends.” And he said, “Let me guess: Mr. Business.”
Cherry was actually not the first official to use “Giving him the business” during a call. That distinction belongs to former NFL referee Ben Dreith, who flagged Marty Lyons for “Giving him the business down there” during a 1986 game between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. But if Cherry’s version wasn’t the first, it remains the most iconic.
Cherry
I knew Ben from television but I never had occasion to be in his presence. It’s not like a thief in the night or anything. My reaction was pure without any premeditation or thought. When you attempt to premeditate something like that, it blows up on [you].
Wooten
They’ll compare the two, but I know for a fact it wasn’t a copycat issue. It was a favorite phrase of Ron’s. That was Ron Cherry at his best.
Page
If somebody else tried to do it, it would almost be like an imitation of Ron. I don’t think they could ever get the same effect out of it that he got.
Swofford
In my entire career, I don’t recall any on-field description from an official that I have any recollection of other than that one.
Ryan
We had the Fiesta Bowl one year and we had a very odd play. It was an extra point that got tipped, went into the end zone, the linebacker picked it up and threw it forward. And Ron announced, “We have a very unusual play.”
Cherry
It was one of those situations where you try to use the simplest expression to explain it, and they didn’t know it was unusual, so I said it was unusual and set it up that way.
Page
[Giving him the business] got him somewhat noticed, but as the story built, people listened more to what his announcements might be. I don’t think he came out with anything quite so dramatic after that, but they listened.
Cherry’s officiating career came to an abrupt end on Nov. 25, 2016, during a game between Notre Dame and USC. Cherry had planned to retire the following season, but a collision with Trojans linebacker Michael Hutchings knocked him out cold on the field. Cherry went through concussion protocols and was allowed to fly home to Atlanta the next day. But a month later, he was still experiencing symptoms and ultimately required two surgeries to relieve pressure on his brain.
Cherry
What I remember was being in a dressing room and an ambulance. … I finally went to the hospital] the day after Christmas. I was playing macho man around the house and not letting my family know about it, but I was having trouble.
Hutchings
My helmet hit him right under his chin. I tried to catch him to brace his fall, but he fell so quickly. And right afterward, I was in shock. Right as I hit him, I knew it wasn’t good.
Ryan
That brings up some strong emotions right now. I thought he had a heart attack. I mean, I was scared to death. And I’m a firefighter, and I said, “It’s going to be tough if I’ve got to do CPR on my good buddy.”
Cherry
I was going to [retire] the next year anyway, but you get knocked on your ass. I remember going into a deep kind of depression — not because I got hurt, but I didn’t get to say goodbye to the game the way I came in, on my two feet.
Hutchings
The refs are in such tough positions. You think about an umpire that’s in the middle of the play. It’s such a freak accident and I hated that his career had to end that way.
Cherry
It took a year and a half, two years — maybe three now — before I finally had enough courage to sit down and look at it. And it just made me cry. Being injured wasn’t it. I had a lot of people to help me recover and get my life back in order. It was more emotional because of not being able to say thank you.
Cherry officiated more than 300 Division I games in his career and helped influence a generation of officials. He helped create opportunities for Black officials, and he continues to work with the ACC to recruit new talent. He remains beloved by coaches, players and his fellow officials, but, for better or worse, he’ll always be best remembered for that one call 15 years ago.
Barnes
It’s a very small play between Maryland and NC State in 2007, a game that didn’t have too much significance, and it’s been able to live on this long. That’s pretty special.
Swofford
That’s one of the many beauties of college football. It’s not entirely corporate and it’s not entirely perfect, and those are the reasons it’s loved the way it is.
Heppe
ESPN put it back on their Instagram, and I had three or four people send it to me. But there was a picture of me doing something with my daughter and somebody posted that I was teaching her the ways of giving the business. Or at work, people will be like, “Boy, you really gave that guy the business for being late this morning.”
Barnes
It’s funny because maybe about a month ago, one of my teammates, JJ Justice, just randomly sent it to me on IG. I remembered it right away. The copy on YouTube is pretty bad, so nobody really knows it’s me. One time in the comments I said, “Yeah, that was crazy I got the business.”
Redfern
I still see highlights of it and it’s fun to reminisce even though it was a pretty awful game for us. It wasn’t the best way to finish a senior year, but it was still hilarious.
Andre Brown
Me and my family have a group chat, and my cousin just posted it in the group chat.
Heppe
Nobody will remember I was All-ACC, but everybody knows I gave somebody the business. Ron’s kind of immortalized me, and I appreciate that.
Cherry
If this is a part of my legacy, so it is. But so is everything else — the ton of snaps I saw and officiated. It’s the funny things, the crazy things, the stupid things, the camaraderie. The best thing that ever happened was I got to meet people from all walks — from university presidents to the officiating staff to doctors to lawyers to the FBI. It was just the whole gamut. It was the experience of a lifetime, and to that end, I’m humbled and gracious that I got to wear stripes.
The 12-team College Football Playoff will again include the five highest-ranked conference champions — a guarantee that expands the pool of candidates to include any team that has a shot at winning its conference.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 32 teams — the most in the CFP era — with at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoff. They come from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but how many of them can actually win the national title?
“Four or five,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said.
“I’d say there’s eight,” Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer said.
This list will shrink by November, but below it starts with 32 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also see their chance to win the national title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The CFP selection committee doesn’t always agree with the computers, though. Here’s a look at how they will view the 32 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 83.9% | Win national title: 24.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Longhorns should be in — either as the SEC champ, or through an at-large bid. But ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game, and that’s not going to happen with a first-time starting quarterback — no matter what his last name is. There’s an extraordinary amount of pressure on Arch Manning, and while he could lead the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he’s going to need some margin for error along the way. Texas will have four new starting offensive linemen, and it is replacing its top three pass catchers from last season. The Longhorns are a playoff team — but there are too many questions heading into the season opener against Ohio State to declare them a preseason No. 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 at Georgia. Yes, the season opener at Ohio State might be the biggest game of the year, but there will be plenty of time to make up for a loss. History tells us it’s better to lose early than late (See: Notre Dame vs. NIU). The Longhorns’ game at Georgia, though, comes at the most critical point in the season, when the conference standings and a guaranteed first-round CFP bye are within reach.
What the committee will like: Road wins. Texas has ample opportunities to impress the group with tough road wins at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida, plus its annual neutral-site game against rival Oklahoma. That’s the kind of lineup that will help separate the Longhorns from otherwise comparable teams.
What the committee won’t like: A weak September. If Texas loses at Ohio State, there won’t be anything to separate the Longhorns as a true contender heading into October. Texas would likely have a 3-1 September start in that scenario with home wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. Style points will matter, but only so much against unranked, overmatched non-power opponents. That could come back to haunt it in the committee meeting room as the rankings play out — especially if some SEC opponents such as Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t finish as CFP top 25 teams.
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +800
CFP ranking history: 54 appearances, highest at No. 1 (15 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 78.6% | Win national title: 17.9%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Georgia is a playoff team that’s a coin flip with Texas to win the SEC. Like Texas, the Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback and four new offensive linemen. If Georgia is going to repeat as SEC champs and advance deeper into the CFP bracket, though, its receivers have to be more dependable (last season Georgia led Power 4 conference teams in dropped passes) and the Bulldogs need to create more holes in the running game — especially to help out quarterback Gunner Stockton.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. This is the only game on Georgia’s schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs less than a 50% chance to win (49.5%).
What the committee will like: A September to remember. If Georgia can start 4-0 with wins against Tennessee and Alabama, the selection committee will remember those through Selection Day. It could also help Georgia earn a top-four seed even if the Bulldogs finish with one loss to Texas and don’t win the SEC. This assumes the Vols and Bama will finish as CFP top 25 opponents.
What the committee won’t like: Road upsets. Winning at Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State won’t be easy, but if Georgia is a true national title contender, it shouldn’t have a losing road record. The neutral-site game against rival Florida is also a chance to impress the committee away from Athens, but the reality is Georgia has only those three true road games — and should be the favorite on every trip. And three of Georgia’s home games are against non-power opponents Marshall, FCS team Austin Peay and Charlotte.
Last year: 14-2, CFP champion
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (five times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 70.6% | Win national title: 10.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The defending national champs are again a playoff-caliber team, but before handing them a first-round bye, consider how difficult Ohio State’s schedule is. In addition to the home season opener against Texas, Ohio State has road trips to Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and rival Michigan — none of which are gimmes. The back-to-back October trips to Illinois and Wisconsin will be trickier than they appear on paper, and Washington should be a better team this fall in the second season under coach Jedd Fisch. ESPN analytics projects Ohio State’s lone regular-season loss will be at home in the season opener against Texas. But Penn State might have something to say about that on Nov. 1 in Columbus.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to prepare for the game that will help determine a spot in the Big Ten championship. While the Big Ten winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff, it’s possible the runner-up could join the league champ in the selection committee’s top four and also get a first-round bye as a top-four seed. If Ohio State loses to Texas and Penn State, though — both at home — a bye would be in jeopardy.
What the committee will like: A November to remember. The committee’s first ranking will be released on Nov. 4 — right after Ohio State starts the month against Penn State. If the Buckeyes go 5-0 in November with two wins against CFP top 25 teams, it will help Ohio State compensate for a possible second loss. Ohio State could make a case as the committee’s top two-loss team if the Buckeyes lose to Texas and stumble elsewhere on the road. A close loss to a top 25 Illinois team might not be as bad as it sounds right now — as long as they recover in November.
What the committee won’t like: A second loss to an unranked opponent. It’s not that a team can’t overcome a bad loss, but it could mean the difference between a first-round bye and having to win four straight games to win the national title (again). The committee factors in everything — including where the game was played and how it was won or lost — but the caliber of opponent still matters. If Ohio State were to lose at Washington or Wisconsin, and neither of those teams finish in the CFP top 25, the committee could rank the Buckeyes behind another two-loss contender that suffered a better, close loss. Ohio State learned this last season when it sank four spots following its loss to unranked Michigan.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (24 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 66.2% | Win national title: 10.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Tide will be better in Kalen DeBoer’s second season, but after a four-loss finish last fall, Alabama is going to have to play its way back into top-four contention. With a new starting quarterback and depth questions on the defensive line, Alabama needs to survive September before the playoff predictions begin.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Georgia. If DeBoer is going to get the Tide back to the top of the SEC — and back into the playoff — this would be the game to do it.
What the committee will like: The No. 10 schedule in the country. Alabama was the committee’s top three-loss team last season and ranked No. 11 on Selection Day — that was with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The committee will likely give the Tide some margin for error again considering an SEC lineup that includes trips to Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, plus home games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. And two of the first three nonconference opponents are against Power 5 teams Florida State and Wisconsin. At worst, Alabama should be 3-1 with a loss to Georgia heading into the heart of SEC play.
What the committee won’t like: Four losses? Alabama’s No. 11 ranking last season was evidence to the contrary of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s concerns about the committee not valuing the difficulty of playing in the SEC. Had ACC champion Clemson not bumped the Tide out of the playoff, Alabama would have slid into the field with two of the worst losses of the season. For Alabama to be excluded from the playoff again, it likely would have to land in that unlucky No. 11 or No. 12 spot and get bumped — or it would have to fail the eye test along the way.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +600
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 3
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 63.8% | Win national title: 7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. There’s no excuse for Penn State not to reach the playoff. Penn State can make a case for No. 1 this preseason because it has one thing no other team ranked above it has: a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might also have the best running back tandem in the country in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Plus, defensively, they hired one of the nation’s best coordinators in Jim Knowles, who left Ohio State to take the job. Coach James Franklin faces a burden of proof when it comes to beating the Buckeyes and elite opponents, but this is a roster talented enough to do it.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus in its past six tries. This might be the only ranked opponent the Nittany Lions face in November, when the selection committee is paying the closest attention. Penn State will have home-field advantage against Oregon on Sept. 27.
What the committee will like: A winning record against Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Penn State’s résumé is only as strong as its opponents’, and if the Nittany Lions fail to win at Ohio State (again), they might only have two wins against CFP top 25 teams — Oregon and Indiana (maybe?) — and both are home games. Penn State avoids Illinois and Michigan, which should be two of the league’s better teams this fall, so it needs to take advantage of the few opportunities it has against elite competition.
What the committee won’t like: A weak nonconference schedule. Wins against Nevada, FIU and Villanova aren’t going to help Penn State earn a first-round bye if the Nittany Lions are looking to earn a top-four seed as the Big Ten runner-up. If Penn State finishes as a two-loss team with no Big Ten title, it can still get into the playoff, but that September lineup will be scrutinized on Selection Day.
Last year: 13-1, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1200
CFP ranking history: 44 appearances, highest at No. 1 (six times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 57.5% | Win national title: 4.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is still a talented playoff team, albeit with a vastly different composition than last season’s 13-1 group. Oregon ranks 107th in returning offensive production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, but coach Dan Lanning lured in the program’s best freshman class. Nonconference games against rival Oregon State and Oklahoma State won’t be easy, but this is a manageable schedule that could land the Ducks back in the Big Ten title game.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Penn State. This is the only game that ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon less than a 50% chance to win. It’s a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten title game, but it’s in Happy Valley — at night. The head-to-head result will impact the committee’s ranking each week.
What the committee will like: Style points. If Oregon doesn’t win the Big Ten, it might be tough to earn a bye if the Ducks don’t have enough wins against top 25 opponents — unless they look like a dominant one- or two-loss team. It depends on what happens elsewhere. Last year, both Oregon and Penn State finished in the selection committee’s top four. This year, PSU has a chance to beat Ohio State during the regular season and Oregon does not. Instead, the Ducks will have to assert themselves against the likes of Indiana and Iowa.
What the committee won’t like: Upsets. It’s not that they can’t be overcome, but there’s not a lot of wiggle room in a schedule that might only include one or two CFP top 25 teams on Selection Day (Penn State, Indiana?). And this schedule has trap games all over it, including trips to Iowa and Washington.
Last year: 10-4, CFP 1st round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +900
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest at No. 1 (eight times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 47.3% | Win national title: 2.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Clemson was overrated heading into the 2024 season. Now it’s underrated. The Tigers’ offense is loaded, starting with much-improved quarterback Cade Klubnik and a deep receiver corps. Klubnik also has a veteran offensive line to work with, and the defensive line should be one of the best in the country. Clemson has a chance to not only win the ACC, but return to the top of the sport.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 at South Carolina. A true road game against a ranked in-state SEC rival tops everything else on the schedule as far as difficulty. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a slim 51.9% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. Head-to-head wins are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses, and a season-opening win against LSU and a win at South Carolina to end the regular season would separate Clemson from other elite contenders — including in the SEC. If by chance one of those teams wins the SEC, there might not be a bigger trump card in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No wins against ranked ACC teams. If Clemson doesn’t go 2-0 against the SEC, this could be an issue. Clemson doesn’t face Miami during the regular season, but SMU and Louisville could be top 25 opponents — and maybe Syracuse or Georgia Tech sneak in. Nobody knows what to expect from the Bill Belichick experiment at North Carolina. If Clemson is going to make a deep run into the playoff, though, or have a chance at a bye, it shouldn’t lose to Louisville again. The Tigers were fortunate to beat SMU in last year’s ACC title game, and they shouldn’t lose to the Mustangs at home this year. If Clemson returns to the ACC championship game and loses to Miami, it can still reach the playoff as an at-large team, but a weak ACC schedule would be glaring in the committee meeting room.
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 46.3% | Win national title: 2.7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Miami has more to prove before it is taken seriously as a playoff contender — like winning the ACC. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes more than a 50% chance to win each game, but the season opener at home against Notre Dame will be the first indicator of Miami’s playoff potential. Miami has continued to find ways to flop in games it should win — and that was with Cam Ward, the eventual first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. If the Canes are going to win a title of any kind this fall, the defense will have to do its part and help an offense now led by former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. The selection committee noticed the porous defense last season, and that was a critical component that kept them out of the playoff.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at SMU. Yes, the Notre Dame game will be huge as far as the national spotlight and playoff implications, but the Canes at least have home-field advantage. Miami doesn’t leave its home state until it goes to SMU. Traveling to Texas for a conference game to face the ACC runners-up right before the first CFP ranking is released is another glaring opportunity for the Canes to stumble.
What the committee will like: An unofficial state championship. If Miami isn’t going to leave its own state until November, it would help the Canes to own it. Miami’s only road trip before November is on Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes will have home-field advantage against three of their toughest opponents: Notre Dame, Florida and Louisville. A winning record against them will boost Miami’s chances in the committee meeting room. If the Canes can go 3-0 against their in-state opponents, including South Florida (Sept. 13) and Florida (Sept. 20), it would help ease the blow of a close home loss to Notre Dame — or Louisville. Two home losses before heading to SMU, though, would put Miami’s playoff hopes on the brink.
What the committee won’t like: Late road losses. Miami ends the season with back-to-back road trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh — two opponents capable of playing spoiler. If both teams are outside the committee’s top 25, a loss to one or both could come back to haunt the Canes if they don’t win the ACC and are jockeying for an at-large bid.
Last year: 14-2, CFP championship game
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 55 appearances, highest at No. 2 (four times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 45.6% | Win national title: 2.7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Notre Dame has one of the best running back tandems in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but the Irish will have a new starting quarterback for the sixth straight season. With two SEC opponents, a regular-season rivalry game against USC, a trip to Miami, and a home game against a Group of 5 CFP contender in Boise State, this is a schedule tailor-made to impress the committee — or knock the Irish out.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 at Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 56.2% chance to win — the only opponent it doesn’t predict Notre Dame to beat. The Canes will have the edge in quarterback experience with Beck, but both teams have questions in their secondary. If Notre Dame beats the eventual ACC champs, a head-to-head win in the season opener would increase in value on Selection Day.
What the committee will like: Two wins against conference champs. If Miami and Boise State both win their leagues, Notre Dame could have wins against the ACC and Mountain West Conference champs, respectively. In theory, the Irish could have even more if Navy wins the American Athletic Conference, but for now, Miami and Boise State are the most likely options. That’s a significant accomplishment for the Irish, who as an independent can’t win a conference title, and it gives the committee an added comparison point — not to mention a head-to-head tiebreaker over teams that could be in the running for a first-round bye.
What the committee won’t like: Another bad loss. Last year’s home loss to Northern Illinois stuck with some committee members through the entire season, and while the Irish were able to ultimately overcome it, there was no margin for error. In each of the past three seasons, Notre Dame has dropped a game it shouldn’t have (2022 Marshall, 2023 Louisville, 2024 Northern Illinois). With no conference championship to guarantee Notre Dame a spot in the field, its only path is an at-large bid, and losing to Purdue or Stanford isn’t the way to earn one.
Last year: 10-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 38.5% | Win national title: 2.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS). With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Alabama. Yes, the Sept. 13 game against Georgia is probably a tougher opponent, but going to Tuscaloosa to face Bama could mean a second loss before November. And that’s with Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp still looming. ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama a 71.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia. This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.
What the committee won’t like: Unconvincing wins. While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition, the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn’t impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 34.3% | Win national title: 2.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is a lot of faith in a team that lost four of its final five games and needed a defensive overhaul. The Aggies can make the playoff as an at-large team, but having success against the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule will require significant improvement. That can be measured early with a Sept. 13 win against Notre Dame, a team that beat the Aggies at home last season.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 80.4% chance to win this Friday night rivalry game in Austin, but if the Aggies pull off the upset, they might be able to claim a win against the eventual SEC champs.
What the committee will like: Marquee road wins. The Aggies’ best chances to impress the committee are trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Midseason trips to Arkansas and Missouri will also be difficult, and are part of a three-game road swing that will help define the Aggies’ place in the committee’s rankings. The committee would reward Texas A&M for a winning record in those five road games. That would mean Texas A&M beat at least one of the big three — Notre Dame, LSU or Texas — along with Arkansas and Missouri. The better they fare against those opponents, the more margin for error the committee might give them at home against Florida and South Carolina.
What the committee won’t like: Another November to forget. The only team Texas A&M beat last November was New Mexico State. Slow golf clap. If the Aggies are going to stay relevant, they’ve got to finish strong, punctuating their résumé with a win against someone other than Samford. Back-to-back wins at Mizzou and South Carolina would provide some wiggle room heading into Texas.
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +5000
CFP ranking history: 34 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 30.7% | Win national title: 1.5%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for a two-loss SEC team that can earn an at-large bid. Coach Lane Kiffin has had at least 10 wins in three of the past four seasons and can do it again. Ole Miss will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in three seasons following the departure of Jaxson Dart, but rookie Austin Simmons has fared well in limited time, and the Rebels should again have a talented group of receivers. The defense made significant strides it can continue to build on but is looking to replace the bulk of production up front.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Georgia. Ole Miss won this game at home last year 28-10, but it was unable to turn that into a playoff berth, adding a third loss in their next game at Florida. This time, the game is at Georgia, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs an 80.6% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 win against Tulane. Don’t sleep on the importance of beating the AAC champs — especially if they wind up being a playoff team as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Tulane a 45.4% chance to win the AAC, a significant lead over Memphis at 14.9%. A head-to-head win against a playoff team would earn Ole Miss credit on Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: An October slide. The Rebels end the month with back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to beat both. If those are the only two games Ole Miss loses, it can still be a playoff team, but LSU and South Carolina are also on the schedule. If Ole Miss is going to finish as a two-loss team or better, there will be some pressure to be undefeated heading into late October.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1800
CFP ranking history: 47 appearances, highest at No. 1 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 30.3% | Win national title: 2.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is the deepest, most complete team Brian Kelly has had at LSU, and he has said repeatedly it’s good enough to contend for the national title. LSU might have the best quarterback in the country in veteran Garrett Nussmeier, but he will work with four new starters on the offensive line. While the defense has much to prove, Kelly said the group is good enough to win the big games.
Toughest test: Aug. 30 at Clemson. The Tigers also have to travel to Ole Miss and Alabama, but neither of those opponents have a starting quarterback as experienced as Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. This season opener will give the winner an early edge in the committee meeting room because of a strong nonconference win against a ranked opponent.
What the committee will like: A winning road record. LSU has the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, and some of that has to do with trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Vandy, Bama and Oklahoma. If LSU is going to get into the CFP as an at-large bid, the committee would have a hard time excluding the Tigers if they went at least 3-2 in those games. They should beat Vandy and OU if they’re a true playoff team, but that record would also assure at least one more win against another contender.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Clemson. If LSU doesn’t win, its nonconference résumé will likely be 3-1 with wins against Louisiana Tech, Southeast Louisiana and Western Kentucky. Clemson’s head-to-head win would also give it one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to help separate otherwise comparable teams. It’s not that LSU can’t overcome a tough season-opening road loss to what could be the ACC champs — but it will be under pressure to earn statement wins that won’t be any easier. ESPN’s FPI currently gives LSU less than a 50% chance to win its games against Clemson, Ole Miss and Alabama.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +3000
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.3% Win national title: 1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Michigan should be better than last year’s 8-5 finish, but by how much? There are more questions than answers heading into the season opener against New Mexico, starting at the top. Coach Sherrone Moore is expected to be suspended for two games as part of the self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions advanced scouting scandal. It’s also still unclear if talented freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will lead the offense from Day 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. Michigan couldn’t possibly beat the defending national champs a fifth straight time … could it?
What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Oklahoma. The Sooners are a borderline top 25 team, but as long as they have a respectable season above .500, the committee will reward Michigan for a road win against an SEC team through Selection Day. This is also one of the few opportunities Michigan has to impress the committee with a road win against a ranked opponent.
What the committee won’t like: Only one win against a ranked opponent. If the Sooners don’t crack the top 25, it’s possible that Ohio State will be the only ranked opponent Michigan faces this season. The Wolverines avoid both Penn State and Oregon. It’s also possible Michigan earns a win against a ranked Oklahoma team — but loses to Ohio State. While the committee does appreciate wins against teams above .500, other contenders with multiple wins against CFP top 25 opponents will likely have an edge in the rankings.
Last year: 12-2, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 9
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.2% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Boise State should have the best chances of any Group of 5 team to earn a spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State has the best chance of any team in the country to win its league (45.6%). The Broncos also rank No. 13 in returning production (67%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Quarterback Maddux Madsen will have a veteran offensive line in front of him, and the defense should remain one of the best in the Mountain West.
Toughest test: Oct. 4 at Notre Dame. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State less than a 50% chance to beat. It’s the first real opportunity to determine whether Boise State can still hang with the nation’s elite without Ashton Jeanty.
What the committee will like: A close game against the Irish. The committee pays attention to how teams lose, and if Boise State can take the Irish to the wire on their home turf, that’s the kind of performance that the group will remember on Selection Day. The same thing happened last season, when Oregon beat Boise State 37-34 at home. Even though it was a loss, the committee held the Broncos in high regard for pushing the eventual Big Ten champs to the limit.
What the committee won’t like: The No. 81 schedule strength. Boise State has what should be a fun, entertaining lineup, but it’s not going to do the Broncos any favors if they don’t win their conference — and that’s not a given. UNLV will again be right on their heels, this time under coach Dan Mullen. Boise State needs to hope that one or two of its opponents — maybe UNLV, App State or San Jose State — sneak into the committee’s top 25 to help boost its résumé. It would be an interesting debate if Boise State beat Notre Dame but didn’t win the MWC. That head-to-head tiebreaker would loom large in the room, but if both teams finish with one loss, Notre Dame’s No. 38 schedule could nullify it on Selection Day, preventing an at-large bid in spite of one of the best wins in the country.
Last year: 9-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 14 appearances, highest at No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 24.3% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Someone from the Group of 5 is going to make the CFP, and it’s most likely going to be the champion from either the Mountain West Conference or the American. Tulane has the best shot to win the latter, at least on paper this preseason, but Memphis will be its biggest challenger.
Toughest test: Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. The Green Wave will again have a chance to impress the committee with a tough nonconference game after coming up painfully short against Kansas State and Oklahoma last season. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 78.1% chance to win — the only opponent Tulane has less than a 50% chance of beating.
What the committee will like: Style points. Tulane and Boise State have similar schedules (Boise State is No. 81 and Tulane is No. 86). There’s no difference in that gap in the committee meeting room, which means that if both of them win their respective conferences — and lose to the toughest nonconference opponents — the deciding factor will simply be who has played consistently better all season. This doesn’t mean Tulane has to run up the score (the committee doesn’t incentivize margin of victory) — but it does need a strong showing against the likes of Army and Memphis.
What the committee won’t like: A home loss to Duke or Northwestern. If the committee is going to reward Tulane with a playoff spot, some people in that room will have a hard time voting the Green Wave ahead of the Mountain West champ with a home loss to Duke or Northwestern. Yes, Duke is coming off a respectable 9-4 season and is trending up with coach Manny Diaz, but if Boise State finishes with one loss (Notre Dame) and Tulane has two (Ole Miss and Duke), the committee’s choice seems obvious.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 7
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 22.2% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The reality is the Big 12 is once again the most wide-open race in the FBS, but with quarterback Avery Johnson returning for his second season as the starter, expectations are high. According to ESPN’s FPI, K-State has a 19.9% chance to win the Big 12, a slight edge over defending champ Arizona State (13%). It’s not impossible for the Big 12 to get two playoff teams in, but the most likely scenario for the second team is as the league runner-up in a close loss — similar to what happened with SMU last year in the ACC.
Toughest test: Oct. 25 at Kansas. An in-state rival on the road during the heart of the season will have implications on the Big 12 standings and in turn the CFP race. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a 52.1% chance to win. The Wildcats escaped with a two-point win last year.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Iowa State in Dublin. The Cyclones are capable of winning the Big 12, and if K-State can knock them off in the season opener, it could help alleviate the blow of a loss in the Big 12 title game if they meet again. K-State would be able to claim a regular-season win against the conference champs. That’s a résumé booster that has helped teams before in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No statement wins. If K-State doesn’t beat Iowa State, it might not have a win against a ranked team on its résumé. The Wildcats don’t face Arizona State or BYU during the regular season. Texas Tech could play its way into the top 25 and even make a run at the Big 12 title, and Kansas could as well, but there’s no headliner in the lineup to help separate K-State from another comparable contender.
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 29 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.8% | Win national title: 1.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Auburn might be one of the most improved teams in the country, but it might not show in wins against the nation’s 14th-toughest schedule. Auburn could still be a four-loss team (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama), and while that would be its best finish under coach Hugh Freeze, it’s unlikely to make the cut for the 12-team field.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Georgia. There’s still a significant gap between these two programs, and it’s up to the Auburn offense to close it. The Tigers averaged 13.3 points in their seven losses last fall, and they’ll need stronger quarterback play to have a chance against Georgia, which won 31-13 last year.
What the committee will like: An Iron Bowl win. Beating rival Alabama in the regular-season finale could be a critical head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record and are on the bubble. It’s not unreasonable for both Alabama and Auburn to finish with three losses this fall — but it’s also possible that Alabama earns a spot in the SEC title game. Auburn will have home-field advantage against the Tide, and a win would leave a lasting impression, especially if Alabama has a chance to win the SEC.
What the committee won’t like: Bad losses. Auburn lost to Cal and Arkansas last season, two unranked teams that both finished with at least six losses. If Auburn is going to have any shot as an at-large CFP team, it has to avoid similar traps.
Last year: 11-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Four appearances, highest at No. 20
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.3% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is the right spot for UNLV, which can earn a spot in the playoff as the Mountain West Conference champion but is still looking up at Boise State until it proves otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Boise State. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI projects will beat UNLV, giving the Broncos a 59.8% chance to win. Last year, UNLV lost twice to Boise State — first during the regular season, and again in the MWC title game.
What the committee will like: Coach Dan Mullen. In a room filled with sitting athletic directors, former coaches and players, Mullen is a proven coaching commodity who will bring continued credibility to the sideline. He has lured in a roster filled with former blue-chippers and/or signees from power conferences. If he can translate that into some style points against weaker competition, it will help. UNLV will need to leave no doubt it’s the better team against the likes of Idaho State, Sam Houston, Wyoming and Nevada.
What the committee won’t like: The nation’s 113th strength of schedule. Any way you slice it, UNLV has to win the Mountain West to reach the CFP. A nonconference win against UCLA could help — maybe — but a Tulane win against Oklahoma would be better, and that would be a part of the conversation if the committee were comparing Tulane and UNLV as conference champs.
Last year: 11-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Nine appearances, highest at No. 8
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.1% | Win national title: .5%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for the Mustangs, who should be sitting behind Clemson and Miami when it comes to representing the ACC in the playoff this fall. SMU will face them both, though, during the regular season and have a chance to prove otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Clemson. SMU came within a 56-yard field goal of winning the ACC title in its first season as a member of the conference, but this will be different. It’s on Clemson’s turf, and the Tigers are loaded with elite talent and veteran experience. Clemson will already have been challenged in its season opener against LSU, while this will likely be the first ranked opponent SMU will face.
What the committee will like: At least split with Clemson and Miami. SMU didn’t face either of them during the regular season last year, which was a major criticism of the Mustangs’ inclusion into the CFP. SMU can quiet some of its naysayers and impress the committee by avoiding an 0-2 record against the ACC’s two favorites. If SMU can steal one of those wins and return to the ACC title game, it will have a chance at returning to the CFP as an at-large team as the ACC runner-up. SMU’s schedule is average — No. 43 — but it’s significantly behind the SEC, which owns 15 of the nation’s 16 most difficult schedules. That will matter if SMU is trying to edge out an SEC team with more losses for an at-large bid. Clemson and Miami are SMU’s two best opportunities to impress the committee against ranked CFP contenders.
What the committee won’t like: A rerun of the first half of the 2024 ACC championship game. SMU played poorly in the first half of the ACC title game against Clemson and was a half a game away from being excluded from the CFP last year. Had the Mustangs not redeemed themselves with a respectable second half and near win, they would have been out. SMU went on to lose convincingly to Penn State in the first round of the playoff. Although the selection committee members insist they start with a “blank slate” each year and each week, they’re also human — and the finish last season will be hard to forget. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who returns, threw three interceptions — including two returned for touchdowns — in the CFP loss to Penn State. If SMU doesn’t win the ACC, it’s going to need to consistently look like a playoff team to return.
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: 33 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. USC is a borderline at-large CFP team that’s going to have two tough road trips to rival Notre Dame and Oregon. If those are the Ducks’ only two losses, it’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the Trojans, but right now USC has much to prove after last year’s 7-6 finish.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Oregon. This earned a small edge over the game in South Bend simply because of the Big Ten implications. Both Oregon and USC should be looking up at Ohio State and Penn State in the league standings, but the Ducks will be looking to protect their shot at returning to the Big Ten title game, and Autzen Stadium will be unforgiving.
What the committee will like: A head-to-head win against the Irish. It’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to separate teams with comparable records, and if Notre Dame and USC are both competing for an at-large bid, this result will be critical.
What the committee won’t like: No statement road wins. A win against Purdue isn’t going to do USC any favors, but unless the Trojans show some significant improvement from 2024, it might be the only road win they get. USC also travels to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon. Not one of those is a guarantee. Nebraska finished with its first winning season since 2016 last year. If Nebraska and Purdue are the Trojans’ only road wins, they need to hope the committee thinks highly of those opponents. The Huskers could be a surprise success in the Big Ten. These road trips could either help USC tremendously — or knock the Trojans out entirely.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: Seven appearances, highest at No. 14
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 20.3% | Win national title: 1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Gamecocks have the nation’s 13th-most difficult schedule, but this is probably also the most equipped the program has been to deal with it. Redshirt sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers is just scratching the surface of his talent, and the defensive front seven should remain one of the SEC’s best. South Carolina was on the brink of the CFP last season and is one statement win away from reaching it.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at LSU. The season opener against Virginia Tech is by no means a gimme, but if South Carolina is a playoff team, it should enter Baton Rouge undefeated. In addition to being one of the most difficult places to win in the country, this trip will give the committee a critical head-to-head result to consider, along with an edge in the SEC standings.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. It was surprising — and controversial — last year that the committee didn’t give South Carolina more credit for beating eventual ACC champion Clemson. Historically, that has played a role in its Selection Day deliberations. This year, the expectations are even higher for Clemson, which is talented enough to repeat as ACC champs and make a deeper CFP run beyond the first round. If the committee has Clemson ranked higher than its No. 16 finish in 2024, and Virginia Tech finishes above .500, it will give South Carolina a stronger boost on Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: Another 0-3 record against LSU, Bama and Ole Miss. South Carolina lost to LSU and Alabama last year by a combined five points. It still wasn’t enough for an at-large bid, as the Gamecocks finished No. 15 on Selection Day. Winning those games would obviously change that. South Carolina was stuck behind both Bama and Ole Miss because the committee continued to honor the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 52 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 18.4% | Win national title: .8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Sooners have lots to prove in their second season in the SEC after a 6-7 finish that was punctuated with a bowl loss to Navy. They’re a fringe contender in desperate need of an offensive answer after finishing next to last in the SEC in scoring offense (24 points per game). With a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, and coach Brent Venables now calling the plays on defense, it’s time to see if the overhaul pays off in Year 4 for Venables.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. The rival Longhorns are the SEC favorites, and ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win this game. It will reveal the gap between the two storied programs and how far the Sooners have to go to return to playoff relevance.
What the committee will like: Look like an SEC team. Let’s start with the basics. Somehow, the only thing Oklahoma won in the SEC last year was the unofficial Iron Bowl, beating both Alabama and Auburn — but nobody else in the conference. While the committee members will say repeatedly they rank teams, not conferences, their past rankings indicate a high regard for the SEC (Alabama was the top three-loss team last year). If OU is going to join that club, though, the Sooners have to start looking the part of an SEC school.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 6 home loss to Michigan. It’s the only nonconference opportunity against a Power 4 opponent to impress the committee. Wins against Illinois State, Temple and Kent State won’t help the Sooners overcome any SEC losses. A win against Michigan could be a CFP top 25 win, and the head-to-head result could be a significant tiebreaker if they’re both competing for an at-large bid.
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 16.1% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Where’s the computer love for the defending Big 12 champs?! The Sun Devils return 79% of last year’s production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is a team that should start the season on the bubble of the bracket — not the top 25. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson are potential first-round NFL draft picks, and 10 starters return from a defense that led the league in run defense (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 in scoring defense (22.6 points).
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Iowa State. Ames is a notoriously tricky place to win, and this game will be important for both Big 12 and CFP standings. Last year, ASU beat Iowa State 45-10 to win the Big 12 title and earn the league’s lone CFP spot.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. It’s going to be difficult (again) for the Big 12 runner-up to secure a second CFP spot unless it’s a lights-out, no-brainer pick, and it’s going to be difficult for ASU to prove that with the nation’s No. 73 schedule strength — especially when so many SEC teams’ schedules are ranked among the top 15. Arizona State will have some opponents sneak into the CFP top 25, and the committee respects wins against good teams — even if they’re not ranked — but it will also give the edge to contenders that have better statement wins against a more rigorous schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Mississippi State. Don’t let the SEC label fool you. ASU beat the 2-10 Bulldogs last year and should do it again if it’s a true playoff team. A loss would mean no Power 4 nonconference wins, as the rest of the schedule includes Northern Arizona and Texas State. There’s also upset potential at Baylor to end September, and that would be a devastating start for a program aiming for history.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 6 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 14.5% | Win national title: .7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Florida might have the best quarterback in the country in DJ Lagway, but it also has the most difficult schedule in the FBS. Again. The Gators are a long shot to win the SEC, and their chances of earning an at-large bid hinge on their ability to beat a lineup comprised mainly of top-25 teams.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Georgia. The Gators also have to face Texas in October, but the history between the Gators and Bulldogs runs deep. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 79.7% chance to win. Florida lost to both Georgia and Texas last year in back-to-back weeks. This year, the Gators have a bye week to prepare for Georgia.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 road win against Miami. The committee factors in the intangibles of rivalry games, and an in-state win against what should be a ranked Canes team would earn Florida some credit in the room. It could increase in value if Miami wins the ACC and clinches a spot in the playoff as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champs. Even if Miami doesn’t win the ACC, the head-to-head tiebreaker could be a factor in the room if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. This is also the kind of nonconference win that could help separate Florida from the Big 12 runner-up if they’re competing for an at-large spot.
What the committee won’t like: An injury to Lagway. His health is critical to the team’s success, and the committee considers injuries to key players — which is why undefeated Florida State didn’t make the CFP in 2023 as the ACC champ. That’s not to say that Florida couldn’t make the playoff without Lagway — in 2014 Ohio State won the national title with its third-string quarterback. But the Gators would have to prove to the committee that they still look like a playoff team with Lagway sidelined. He has already dealt with a shoulder injury, a lower body injury and a hamstring injury during his career.
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest at No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make the playoff: 13.4% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Kansas’ only role in the CFP last year was as a spoiler, knocking off three CFP-ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado) in consecutive weeks. It was too little, too late, though, and Kansas finished 5-7. Although the Jayhawks can build on their 3-1 finish and contend to win a wide-open Big 12, Kansas has to show more consistency before being taken seriously as an at-large possibility.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have poured booster money into their NIL collective, quietly building a roster capable of surprising the Big 12 favorites. It certainly won’t be easy for Kansas to go into Mizzou on Sept. 6 and win, but the mid-October trip to Lubbock will have bigger postseason implications.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Missouri. The Tigers are a fringe top-25 team, but their defense last year was one of the best in the FBS. If Mizzou can navigate offseason turnover on offense and have a respectable season — which it should — this could be a significant SEC road win for Kansas’ résumé.
What the committee won’t like: Any doubt. Kansas has little if any margin for error if it doesn’t win the Big 12. In addition to beating the Big 12’s best, the Jayhawks need to do what they couldn’t last year — avoid upsets and look like a playoff team against unranked competition.
Last year: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +30000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.6% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Because BYU has a strong chance to win the Big 12, it should be higher on this list — but how much higher depends on how the Cougars look without quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars still return their leading rusher, LJ Martin, and wide receiver Chase Roberts, who had over 850 yards and four touchdowns last year. BYU’s defense was also one of the best in the country last year at snagging turnovers. The returning talent will help ease the transition of whoever replaces Retzlaff as the starter.
Toughest test: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Cougars will have a bye week to prepare for this, but it’s still the second straight tough road trip following the Oct. 25 game at Iowa State. ESPN’s FPI projects BYU to lose both of those games, but if the Cougars can’t win in Ames, the trip to Texas Tech becomes even more consequential.
What the committee will like: One loss or better. BYU finished 10-2 last year, good enough for No. 17 on Selection Day. BYU probably has to win the Big 12 to earn a playoff spot, and it can’t lose to an opponent it’s supposed to beat (such as unranked Kansas last year). If BYU is going to have any shot at an at-large bid, its ideal scenario would be as a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, with the lone loss coming in the conference championship game. If BYU finishes with two losses, though, and no Big 12 title, it’s probably going to land where it did last year — in a regular bowl game.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. BYU starts September against Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina — none of which will help the Cougars’ playoff résumé. BYU has the No. 74 schedule in the country, and while the September slate might be ideal to break in a new starting quarterback, an early loss or ugly win to an unranked opponent will still be remembered in the committee meeting room.
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 13
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.5% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Until proved otherwise, everyone in the ACC is looking up at Clemson, Miami and SMU. Virginia Tech has a chance to surprise some people, but it fell below expectations last year and has even more questions heading into this season after 24 players entered the transfer portal and others moved on to the NFL.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. South Carolina. Yes, the Hokies will have had all summer to prepare for their most difficult game of the regular season, but so will the Gamecocks, who are leading the race between the two programs to reach the CFP for the first time. ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 65.7% chance to win. There are also personal ties involved, as South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s father, Frank, was the longtime head coach of the Hokies, where the younger Beamer was also a former assistant.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. A week after opening with the neutral site game against South Carolina, Virginia Tech hosts Vanderbilt, a much-improved SEC team that’s no longer a gimme. If the Hokies can win both of those games, it will compensate for the following two weeks against Old Dominion and Wofford. Those head-to-head results could also factor in as tiebreakers if any of the teams are in contention for an at-large bid and have similar records.
What the committee won’t like: A three-loss ACC team without a title. Considering three-loss Alabama was the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team last year (and still didn’t make the playoff at No. 11 on Selection Day), there’s even less margin for error in the ACC. If Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina, at Georgia Tech and against Miami, its playoff hopes are over without an ACC title. There are enough opportunities to impress the committee, but if Virginia Tech can’t manage a winning record against its ranked opponents, it’s going to be a hard sell in the room without winning the league.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 5
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.5% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Baylor is a team that can be in the conversation in November simply because it can win the Big 12. Coach Dave Aranda said this is his best team, and the Bears are poised to build off a strong finish to 2024. Still, Baylor will have to play its way into the committee’s top 25 before it’s taken seriously in the race.
Toughest test: Sept. 6 at SMU. This is a difficult in-state trip against the ACC runner-up, as ESPN’s FPI gives SMU a 65.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 start. If Baylor beats Auburn and SMU — two games ESPN’s FPI projects it will lose — the Bears’ playoff stock will rise immediately. With two nonconference wins against Power 4 opponents, Baylor will separate from other contenders who played a weaker lineup — including in the Big 12. There’s also the slim possibility that Auburn or SMU is competing with Baylor for an at-large spot, and that head-to-head win would tilt at least one major tiebreaker in the Bears’ favor.
What the committee won’t like: A November fade. Baylor’s schedule is frontloaded with opportunities to impress the committee, including league matchups against favorites Arizona State and K-State. That leaves a lull, though, in the backstretch, which might not include one ranked opponent over the span of the final six games. That’s also when the rankings are in full swing, and the committee is the most dialed in. Historically, it’s been easier for teams to overcome early losses than late ones. A loss to an unranked league opponent would damage the Bears’ résumé at a critical point in the committee’s deliberations.
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Eight appearances, highest at No. 10
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Nebraska should take another step forward this fall, but even a three-loss Huskers team is a long shot for an at-large bid. Nebraska lost six games a year ago and is still trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon in the CFP race. It might also be looking up at Michigan, depending on the outcome of the Sept. 20 game.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Penn State. Nebraska avoids Ohio State and Oregon this year, leaving the road trip to Happy Valley easily the most difficult game. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State an 83.2% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A strong showing at home. Even if Nebraska loses at Penn State, the Huskers have plenty of chances at home to boost their playoff résumé, starting with the Michigan game. If Nebraska can win that one, it will have a strong chance to be undefeated heading into November against USC. That would make Nebraska relevant when it matters the most and give the Huskers some margin for error. Nebraska also ends the season at home on a Friday against Iowa. Home wins against Michigan, USC and Iowa would put the Huskers in the conversation.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian aren’t going to help Nebraska’s playoff résumé, especially if the Huskers are looking for an at-large bid.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 25 appearances, highest at No. 3 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It’s hard to believe this program played for the national title as recently as 2022. The Horned Frogs are again a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team trying to build off last year’s 9-4 finish. The staff lured in the league’s top-rated recruiting class, but it’s going to take some time to translate. Until TCU plays its way into the CFP top 25, this is the right spot for the Frogs.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Kansas State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 63.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. The season opener at UNC will be a fascinating Labor Day coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and TCU’s Sonny Dykes. It’s impossible to tell how UNC’s season will unfold — a win in Chapel Hill might not amount to anything in the committee meeting room come Selection Day if the Tar Heels don’t put together a respectable season. If they do, though, and TCU also earns a home win against 2024 ACC runner-up SMU, it could help the committee determine whether the ACC or Big 12 might be more deserving of a second team.
What the committee won’t like: Road woes. If TCU is going to make a run at the Big 12 title, it’s going to have to beat the league’s best on the road. Trips to Arizona State, K-State and BYU will help determine the league leader, and TCU will need a winning record against them to stay in the mix.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: N/A
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Red Raiders are a CFP sleeper team, but not as far from a shot as the computers indicate. The program spent more than $10 million to sign 17 new players, including seven on the offensive and defensive lines. The defense has been under construction after allowing at least 35 points in each of its five losses last year, but with improvement and the return of quarterback Behren Morton, Texas Tech can contend for the Big 12 title — and in turn a spot in the CFP.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Arizona State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Sun Devils a 61.2% chance to win. The defending Big 12 champs return 79% of their total production from last season, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against Arizona State and Kansas State. They’re both likely to be CFP top 25 teams, and beating them on the road would position Texas Tech at or near the top of the Big 12 standings.
What the committee won’t like: A September stumble. If Texas Tech is going to be taken seriously as a CFP contender, it should go undefeated in September. The Sept. 20 trip to Utah will be the toughest game of the month, but the Red Raiders can’t afford a Week 3 upset to Oregon State, either. The committee members won’t be wowed by home wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State or Oregon State — but they won’t forget losses to any of them. While a road loss to Utah isn’t horrible, it would put Texas Tech in a hole before the Red Raiders travel to ASU and K-State later in the season.
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Seth Wickersham
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Seth Wickersham
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior Writer for ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine
- Joined ESPN The Magazine after graduating from the University of Missouri.
- Although he primarily covers the NFL, his assignments also have taken him to the Athens Olympics, the World Series, the NCAA tournament and the NHL and NBA playoffs.
Stanford is set to hire former Nike CEO John Donahoe as the school’s new athletic director, sources told ESPN on Thursday.
Donahoe, 65, will arrive in the collegiate athletic director space with a vast swath of business experience, as Stanford officials viewed him as a “unicorn candidate” because of both his business ties and history at the school. Stanford coveted a nontraditional candidate for the role, and Donahoe’s hire delivers a seasoned CEO with stints at Nike, Bain & Company and eBay. He also served as the board chair of PayPal.
Donahoe also brings strong Stanford ties, as he’s a 1986 MBA graduate. He has also had two stints on the Stanford business school’s advisory board, including currently serving in that role.
Donahoe replaces Bernard Muir, who announced in February he was stepping down from the school after serving in that role since 2012. Alden Mitchell has been working as the school’s interim athletic director.
The hire is a head-turning one for Stanford, bringing in someone with Donahoe’s high-level business experience. And it comes at a time when the athletic department has struggled in its highest profile sports, as football is amid four consecutive 3-9 seasons and the men’s basketball team hasn’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2014.
In hiring Donahoe, they are aiming for someone who can find an innovative way to support general manager Andrew Luck and the Stanford football program while also figuring out a sustainable model for the future of Stanford’s Olympic sports.
Stanford’s Olympic sports remain the best in the country, as Stanford athletes or former athletes accounted for 39 medals in the 2024 Paris Olympics. If Stanford were a country, they would have tied with Canada for the 11th most medals. (Stanford has also won 26 of the possible 31 director’s cups for overall athletic success in college, including a 25-year streak from 1995 to 2019.)
Stanford officials approached Donahoe in recent weeks about the position, with both President Jonathan Levin and former women’s basketball coach Tara VanDerveer among the chief recruiters. Donahoe has a long-standing relationship with both, as he maintained strong ties to the school throughout his career.
Per ESPN sources, Luck will report to Donahoe in this role. Luck spent time with him in the interview process and is excited to work with him, per sources. (That’s a change from the prior structure, as upon Luck’s hiring he had been slated to report to Levin.)
Stanford is set to begin a football season in which it is picked last in the 17-team ACC. Former NFL coach Frank Reich is the interim coach, and both sides have made clear this is a definitive interim situation and he won’t return after the 2025 season.
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