‘Giving him the business’: College football’s most iconic call
“You’re a football ref, an ordinary man, 60, 65 years old. You’re not making the big millions like the football players, but you’ve got one thing. You’ve got a button on a belt. And you know that all you’ve got to do is click that puppy on and for the first time in your whole stupid life, the entire country is listening to every word that comes out of your mouth.” — comedian Richard Jeni at the 1995 ESPYS
The job of an official is to blend into the scenery. Manage the game, throw the flags and, unless you make a particularly egregious mistake, you’re forgotten. There are moments in every game, however, when the referee flicks a switch on his belt, activating a microphone, and the entire audience — thousands in the stands and perhaps millions more on TV — hang on his every word.
This is the story of how former ACC referee Ron Cherry used one of those moments in an otherwise forgettable 2007 game between Maryland and NC State to make arguably the most famous call in college football history …
Ron Cherry, former ACC referee
Going into Raleigh was always one of my favorite places to officiate a football game. But this was a dreary Saturday, and Maryland was putting the wood to them.
Tom O’Brien, former NC State coach
We were 5-6 with a chance to maybe get to a bowl game, which would’ve been a pretty big accomplishment. We’d lost nine starters. But we just played a lousy game. We acted like we didn’t even want to win that game.
Kalani Heppe, former NC State offensive lineman
It was senior day. We were supposed to win, and for whatever reason, nothing worked.
Steve Martin, play-by-play broadcaster for Lincoln Financial Network
Ron Cherry was one of the top officials in the ACC, and I questioned, why did he get this game? Wasn’t Clemson playing somebody that day?
Mike Wooten, ACC official
Usually when you have games that are lopsided like that. you have to interject yourself a lot more because there’s some extracurricular activities.
Cherry
We get a little later into the ballgame and I hear someone saying, “Ref, dammit, he can’t do that.” I looked down in the pile and I didn’t see it, but I told the player, “Maybe I missed that.”
Kevin Barnes, former Maryland defensive back
I remember it got a little chippy maybe two plays prior to it. At least seven or eight people got into it a little.
Heppe
Old Kevin, every time we’d run a sweep to the left, he’d come up and cut my knees out.
Cherry
Sure as hell, a play or two later, they get started again, and this time I saw it. So I threw the flag.
Andre Brown, former NC State running back
This was such a crappy game, but then you had to laugh. Like, what did Ron Cherry just call? It was the most ridiculous thing we’d ever heard.
Cherry
I flipped the mic and made the announcement, I just said, “Personal foul, No. 69, offense. He was giving him the business.” … And once you communicate it out, it’s out there and you can’t get it back. And it was out there and got a lot of mileage.
Cherry was in the Air Force when he officiated his first football game. When he was discharged and returned home to Virginia, he took a job with Norfolk Southern railroad and found extra work calling high school games for $2 or $3 a night. “I was on cloud nine,” Cherry said, “because it was an opportunity to be part of the game.” Cherry began his ACC career in 1993 and served as referee for the first time in Georgia Tech‘s 1994 game against Western Carolina, a day so hot Cherry thought he might pass out on the field, and a game so wild that “every penalty in the book, we called.”
Cherry
I came in as a side judge. The second season we had this roundtable meeting in Charlottesville with all the officials assembled. At the end of the meeting, [Brandon Faircloth] walked out and said, “Walk with me, Ron.” I said, “Oh hell, I’m about to get fired.” He said, “Ron, I want to make you a referee.” I don’t know if all the color drained out of my body.
John Swofford, former ACC commissioner
He could manage his crew, deal with coaches, knew the rules tremendously well but, beyond that, you really have to have common sense and know how to manage situations, and over the years, he just developed such a rapport with people and a respect from people.
Cherry
I talked to a lot of players, just as I would anybody else. I tried to call them by name if I could, and they called me Ron. It wasn’t “Mr. Ron.” It was, “Hey Ron.” And I was happy with that because it made us equal components in a lot of ways.
Brown
I did not like Ron Cherry. I felt like he was always out to get me. Like, “We’ve got Ron Cherry here, I’ve got to make sure my uniform’s right. I’ve got to make sure I get back to the huddle in a calm manner.” My cheerfulness and all the swag I claimed I had at the time, I had to straighten up and fly right around him. If I was cursing, “Hey buddy, that’s enough of that.”
Pat Ryan, ACC official
Let me tell you, he expected excellence on the field. I saw him undress officials. I saw him undress people that were auxiliary. We were at TCU one time and he ran the alternate box guy out. That’s the guy on the other side of the chains that keeps track of where the ball is. He wasn’t doing his job, and right in the middle of the game, Ron said, “OK, you’re out of here.” He ran the guy off and they stopped the game until they could find another guy.
Swofford
I would tell young officials, “Go watch and listen to Ron Cherry and do your best to emulate him and you’ll be a heck of an official.”
Ryan
There was a coach from Boston College, and they said, “Be ready. He’s going to be ornery.” Sure enough, Ron goes over there, and the first thing he says, “I’m going to have five captains.” Ron says, “No, you can only have four captains.” I got away from it, and then next thing I know, I look over, and they’re arm-in-arm, hugging and giggling. And guess what? They only brought out four captains.
If Cherry was known as a no-nonsense official on the field, off it, he was the closest thing referees had to a rock star. He was well known as one of the first and most prominent Black officials for a major conference, and his style — a Southern twang and sharp, emphatic signals — made him a household name.
Cherry
In the early days, I always wanted to be talking to the television, to the person that’s at home, since they didn’t have the benefit of being here in the stadium, giving them some clarity in a brief, concise way.
Doc Walker, TV analyst
I looked forward to his games because he had a personality. He wasn’t a clone or a cyborg.
Barnes
He was always a cool ref, always very animated every game. I don’t know every ref I played, but he’s definitely one that stood out, so the fact that he was the one to make that call, I’m not surprised at all because he has that type of personality.
Mack Brown, former Texas head coach and current North Carolina head coach
He had the best voice that there has ever been for a college official.
Rick Page, ACC official
He had that enunciation that seemed to stand out more than anybody else. And he wasn’t showboating; that was just his natural way of addressing the fouls.
Cherry
My girls would tell me, “Daddy, you sound so country,” and I’d say, “What? No way.”
Ryan
Ron was a character of the game, and he loved it. We’d walk through airports, and he’d split the crowds — just, “That’s Ron Cherry, that’s Ron Cherry.” People loved him. Everybody knew him. A lot of the African American people that worked at the stadium would come down and hug him.
Cherry
We can’t all be clones. I’m over 6 feet, African American, long arms and long legs. There’s not a lot of places I can hide once I get out there. So you accept what you have.
Swofford
He was a bit of a trailblazer. From a minority standpoint, he was, relatively early on, one of the most visible and prominent and respected minority officials on the field, which I’m sure inspired many others. His leadership in that aspect of it is really immeasurable.
Cherry
I never thought of myself as being anything other than an official. I was doing a job. It wasn’t that I was Ron, the Afro American referee. That wasn’t how I saw myself. I knew that there was not a lot of minorities, when I first started, that had those opportunities. And it wasn’t always easy for me, but if I made it look easy, maybe it would give them some confidence to make them think they could do the same. But it wasn’t just African Americans. It was anybody. I’m just a football official. I don’t have time to sort out all that other stuff, not during this game.
Cherry simply liked people, and because of that, he made friends quickly. Nearly everyone who worked with him has a Ron Cherry story.
Cherry
My personality, you could turn the switch — Clark Kent into Superman and then turn back. I felt like my part was, maybe it’s like a guy who does the news or a disc jockey on a radio station, where every day he’s just happy-go-lucky, which I was. I liked to cut up and mean mug and do all those crazy things, but when it was time to turn the mic on, hell, I can remember thinking, “Why am I looking so serious all of a sudden?”
Dr. Jerry McGee, former official
Ron was really, really serious about the job at hand, but he also had some fun with it. We had a really bang-bang play downfield and I didn’t have any help, and it went against the home team. The crowd was going nuts. I was standing 40 yards downfield, and I cut my eyes back to Ron, and he blew me a kiss. Like 80,000 fans here are mad but I still love you.
Bill LeMonnier, former Big Ten official and current ESPN analyst
My granddaughter was watching a game and when I came on, she said, “There’s Grandpa.” Then the next game comes on, and that’s Ron’s game. When he gets on the mic, sure enough, she yells, “There’s Grandpa.” So I called Ron up and told him about it. “She called you Grandpa. Can you explain that to me?” He said, “Well, I’m just going to take that as a compliment, Bill, and if you have any other questions, you can contact my lawyer.” We had a good laugh over that and we’ve even told it when we’ve done some clinics together that he was my granddaughter’s real grandpa.
Ryan
He was the type of guy, the people cleaning our rooms, he’d talk to them like they were his brother. And then we’d go to a game at SMU and George Bush would show up with Laura, and he could just swoon them. He can relate to anybody. That’s his biggest forte, and that helped him on the field, too.
Cherry
George Bush and his wife were going to walk out to midfield with me and we sat there and talked with the president for more than 30 minutes. … [After the coin toss], I got the coin off the ground and presented it to the president and said, “Thank you for what you do, and thank you for your service.” And this is true. He says, “Right on, brother.” I had goose bumps.
If his colleagues were familiar with his quirks and charm before, the rest of the country learned on Nov. 24, 2007. With Maryland leading 37-0, Cherry flipped on the mic at Carter-Finley Stadium and delivered a call for the ages.
It was second-and-7, and Andre Brown took the pitch for a sweep to the left. Heppe was the pulling guard on the play, and once again, he was met by Barnes in the backfield and then “The business” ensued.
Andrew Redfern, former NC State offensive lineman and Heppe’s roommate
It couldn’t have happened to a more perfect teammate.
Heppe
My roommate was on the bench, and I was like, “You know, I’ve done about everything you can on a football field. I’ve gotten interceptions, recovered fumbles, sacks, touchdowns. I’ve never been kicked out of a game. I’m getting kicked out.”
Redfern
He was getting pretty irate. He’d come to his wit’s end and was ready to go.
Heppe
The parents section is right behind the away team’s bench. After the last game, you go over and give your mom flowers and your jersey. And Fern says, “If you get kicked out, you’re not going to be able to give your mom your jersey.” No, I’m getting my mom my jersey, and furthermore, I’m walking back to the tunnel wearing my knee braces and my girdle and everything else is going up in the stands. This is going to be a production.
Ralph Friedgen, former Maryland head coach
We blitzed the guy off the edge. They ran a sweep and pulled the guard, and our guy cut the guard, which he’s supposed to do — take out the interference so someone else can make the play.
Andre Brown, NC State running back
The sweep play was my play. That’s how we were getting yardage for most of the season, and Kalani was a pulling guard.
Heppe
I see Kevin kind of scooting up a little bit and I think, “Game time. Here we go.”
Barnes
I’m a corner and if you’re pulling on me, our job was to take out their knees or they would essentially run through us and pancake us. I’m not going to let you pancake me.
Heppe
We snap the ball, I pull, he goes straight for the knee. And I just reach back and right hook straight up in the jaw line. It was blatant. And I looked straight up at Ron. Ron kind of always had my number anyway. He’s funny as hell, don’t get me wrong, but for whatever reason, Ron really enjoyed throwing flags on me. So this happens, I jack him in the jaw, get up and try to act like nothing’s happened, all nonchalant.
Barnes
I try to roll over, and I couldn’t get up. I’m literally looking at the sky. It’s a cloudy Saturday afternoon. And I can’t get up. I give him credit. He kept it PG-13 and above the waist. He’s giving me body shots and I’m like, “Ref, I really can’t get up.” And I’m just thinking, there’s no way possible they can’t see this.
Cherry
I had a flashback to the late 1950s and early ’60s, there was a series, “Leave It to Beaver” and Wally always used to tease The Beaver about giving him the business. And without even thinking, I said, “Well, that’s the business down there.”
Wooten
He would use that phrase a lot in our pregames — like, “If somebody’s giving him the business, we need to catch that” — and I guess in that moment of deciding what to announce, he used that phrase, and it was kind of poetic.
Walker
Some of the best things are ad-libbed. They’re floating around. They don’t come from nowhere. But the moment comes up and then you put it all together.
On the TV broadcast, Martin notes a flag in the backfield, but quickly switches gears to discuss the litany of injuries sustained by NC State that season. Barnes listens in on the discussion between officials and walks away clapping, knowing Heppe has finally been caught. Cherry steps forward, clicks on his mic, and out it comes: “Personal foul. 69. Offense. He was giving him the business. Replay the down.” The crowd goes wild, and Martin begins cackling and quips, “Ron Cherry with the quote of the year.”
O’Brien
The announcers on the call, I thought, did a great job. “Where’s that in the rulebook?” I thought that was good.
Gary Hahn, NC State radio voice
Nobody’s ever heard an official say that before, or at least I never had. He explained it but he didn’t explain it. I heard the crowd chuckling a little bit. The first thing that came to my mind was somebody’s either biting or kicking or gouging.
Friedgen
I had my family ask me after the game, “I never heard that penalty called before.” I said, “Neither did I.”
Johnny Holliday, Maryland radio voice
Both of us just kind of said, “Did we hear what we thought we heard?” And it’s all we could do to contain ourselves because I thought it was great.
Barnes
I walk away clapping because they caught him in the act. I was literally getting the business. That’s the great thing about the call is it fit the description perfectly. Growing up in football, coaches always tell you when there’s a scrum at the bottom of a pile, you’ve got to protect yourself. And at that moment, I remember thinking, “This is what they were talking about.”
Heppe
I came off after that three-and-out and Fern was just laughing his ass off — just this uncontrollable chortle coming out of him. Our coach comes up — it was Don Horton. Don comes up and says, “Hep, what do you have to do to give someone the business?”
Andre Brown
I just remember that baffled moment in the huddle. We were all talking like, “What just happened?”
Cherry
I turned the mic off and thought, “Why are those people laughing up in the stands?” It just didn’t register. Guys in the crew were looking at me and I was thinking, “What the hell is going on?”
Wooten
After he announced the penalty, I heard the crowd react, but I didn’t listen because I was walking off the yardage. When I got to the locker room, my phone was blowing up with messages like, “I can’t believe he said that.” I look at Ron and asked, “What did you say?” He told me, and I about fell out of my chair.
Heppe
I’m waiting for “player is ejected,” but then he comes out with “giving him the business.” And apparently the whole crowd is chanting “Giving him the business! Giving him the business!” I hear none of this because I am calling Ron every name in the book besides an upstanding gentleman. I completely ransacked Ron Cherry.
Andre Brown
Adrenaline going, all that stuff, and I just remember Kalani saying explicit words.
Heppe
We go three-and-out like we had most of the afternoon, and then we go to punt, and I just started in on him again. And he starts trotting off the field. We’re stride for stride, and he looks at me and says, “6-9, you can say whatever you want to me, but you’re finishing this game, son.” Well, s—. It wasn’t his first rodeo.
Cherry
I wouldn’t throw him out. When you’re in a ballgame, you feel the emotions — the ebbs and flows. To me, it was one of those situations where the foul, in my opinion, the score, the time in the ball game, it wasn’t something I wasn’t going to do.
O’Brien
That was the good thing about the call and one thing about Ron. He looked at the situation and saw a knucklehead doing a knucklehead thing and decided, “I’m not going to throw him out. I’m just going to penalize him and tell him to get back in the huddle,” which he did.
The game ended with Maryland winning 37-0. NC State’s season was over, but the legend of Cherry was just beginning.
Heppe
I was in there first thing Sunday morning to watch film. I was a little hungover. And actually one of my family friends came with me and was like, “Bro, just go straight to the play. We can always rewind it back.” You can see it a little bit on the YouTube clip. You see that right hand come back and his head jerk. But on the south end zone view, it’s pretty rough.
Barnes
That Monday, it was a big joke — especially in the DB room. It’s hard to keep a lot of DBs serious at one time.
Cherry
The next morning, we go to the airport, get on the airplane and this lady sitting up front is saying, “That’s him! That’s him! That’s the guy who said ‘Giving him the business.'” I thought, what is she talking about? Because it still didn’t register. I get home and my daughter calls me and said, “Daddy, it’s on YouTube.” And I said, “What is YouTube?”
Ryan
Next thing I know, on Sunday, I get a call from one of the guys and they go, “It’s got 2 million hits already.”
Cherry
I went to the damn link and said, “Oh s—.” Then it started. People were wearing me out with it.
Holliday
I’m sure he didn’t do it for attention, that’s the last thing on his mind. But he did it because that’s what came to his mind, and nobody else in the country did what he did, and it made national news.
Heppe
It was on VH1’s “Best Week Ever.” Jimmy Kimmel talked about it. Jim Rome. The press it got, and this is before everybody had camera phones and social media around the world and everything else. I can’t imagine what it would be like now, but it was crazy.
Mack Brown
We all got a big chuckle out of it, especially from him because he was just being Ron Cherry.
Cherry
The next morning, I’m in the office, and one of my clients calls and says, “Ron, you’re all over the place.” I said, “It’ll go away by day’s end. Nobody will stay with that thing.” And sure enough my boss calls on the football side of things and asks what was that all about.
Swofford
I was asked, “Should we do something about it?” I said, “What do you mean do something about it? That’s one of the great descriptions on television ever. We’re going to applaud him.”
Cherry
The next weekend’s assignment, I couldn’t go anywhere — the hotel, restaurants, on the radio they were saying it.
Heppe
A friend of mine was working the sideline for a game the following year. [Cherry] was working the game, and she went up to him and said, “You don’t know me but I believe you know one of my friends.” And he said, “Let me guess: Mr. Business.”
Cherry was actually not the first official to use “Giving him the business” during a call. That distinction belongs to former NFL referee Ben Dreith, who flagged Marty Lyons for “Giving him the business down there” during a 1986 game between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. But if Cherry’s version wasn’t the first, it remains the most iconic.
Cherry
I knew Ben from television but I never had occasion to be in his presence. It’s not like a thief in the night or anything. My reaction was pure without any premeditation or thought. When you attempt to premeditate something like that, it blows up on [you].
Wooten
They’ll compare the two, but I know for a fact it wasn’t a copycat issue. It was a favorite phrase of Ron’s. That was Ron Cherry at his best.
Page
If somebody else tried to do it, it would almost be like an imitation of Ron. I don’t think they could ever get the same effect out of it that he got.
Swofford
In my entire career, I don’t recall any on-field description from an official that I have any recollection of other than that one.
Ryan
We had the Fiesta Bowl one year and we had a very odd play. It was an extra point that got tipped, went into the end zone, the linebacker picked it up and threw it forward. And Ron announced, “We have a very unusual play.”
Cherry
It was one of those situations where you try to use the simplest expression to explain it, and they didn’t know it was unusual, so I said it was unusual and set it up that way.
Page
[Giving him the business] got him somewhat noticed, but as the story built, people listened more to what his announcements might be. I don’t think he came out with anything quite so dramatic after that, but they listened.
Cherry’s officiating career came to an abrupt end on Nov. 25, 2016, during a game between Notre Dame and USC. Cherry had planned to retire the following season, but a collision with Trojans linebacker Michael Hutchings knocked him out cold on the field. Cherry went through concussion protocols and was allowed to fly home to Atlanta the next day. But a month later, he was still experiencing symptoms and ultimately required two surgeries to relieve pressure on his brain.
Cherry
What I remember was being in a dressing room and an ambulance. … I finally went to the hospital] the day after Christmas. I was playing macho man around the house and not letting my family know about it, but I was having trouble.
Hutchings
My helmet hit him right under his chin. I tried to catch him to brace his fall, but he fell so quickly. And right afterward, I was in shock. Right as I hit him, I knew it wasn’t good.
Ryan
That brings up some strong emotions right now. I thought he had a heart attack. I mean, I was scared to death. And I’m a firefighter, and I said, “It’s going to be tough if I’ve got to do CPR on my good buddy.”
Cherry
I was going to [retire] the next year anyway, but you get knocked on your ass. I remember going into a deep kind of depression — not because I got hurt, but I didn’t get to say goodbye to the game the way I came in, on my two feet.
Hutchings
The refs are in such tough positions. You think about an umpire that’s in the middle of the play. It’s such a freak accident and I hated that his career had to end that way.
Cherry
It took a year and a half, two years — maybe three now — before I finally had enough courage to sit down and look at it. And it just made me cry. Being injured wasn’t it. I had a lot of people to help me recover and get my life back in order. It was more emotional because of not being able to say thank you.
Cherry officiated more than 300 Division I games in his career and helped influence a generation of officials. He helped create opportunities for Black officials, and he continues to work with the ACC to recruit new talent. He remains beloved by coaches, players and his fellow officials, but, for better or worse, he’ll always be best remembered for that one call 15 years ago.
Barnes
It’s a very small play between Maryland and NC State in 2007, a game that didn’t have too much significance, and it’s been able to live on this long. That’s pretty special.
Swofford
That’s one of the many beauties of college football. It’s not entirely corporate and it’s not entirely perfect, and those are the reasons it’s loved the way it is.
Heppe
ESPN put it back on their Instagram, and I had three or four people send it to me. But there was a picture of me doing something with my daughter and somebody posted that I was teaching her the ways of giving the business. Or at work, people will be like, “Boy, you really gave that guy the business for being late this morning.”
Barnes
It’s funny because maybe about a month ago, one of my teammates, JJ Justice, just randomly sent it to me on IG. I remembered it right away. The copy on YouTube is pretty bad, so nobody really knows it’s me. One time in the comments I said, “Yeah, that was crazy I got the business.”
Redfern
I still see highlights of it and it’s fun to reminisce even though it was a pretty awful game for us. It wasn’t the best way to finish a senior year, but it was still hilarious.
Andre Brown
Me and my family have a group chat, and my cousin just posted it in the group chat.
Heppe
Nobody will remember I was All-ACC, but everybody knows I gave somebody the business. Ron’s kind of immortalized me, and I appreciate that.
Cherry
If this is a part of my legacy, so it is. But so is everything else — the ton of snaps I saw and officiated. It’s the funny things, the crazy things, the stupid things, the camaraderie. The best thing that ever happened was I got to meet people from all walks — from university presidents to the officiating staff to doctors to lawyers to the FBI. It was just the whole gamut. It was the experience of a lifetime, and to that end, I’m humbled and gracious that I got to wear stripes.
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — Cody Bellinger stood in the on-deck circle during the fourth inning Tuesday night — the ideal vantage point to follow the 100 mph fastball that Aaron Judge somehow launched from over a foot inside off the plate and into the sky down the left-field line in what was perhaps the most important swing of the New York Yankees‘ 2025 season.
Bellinger had just one wish: “I was just saying, ‘Hit the f—ing foul pole.'”
When it did, striking the pole three-quarters of the way to the top for a game-tying three-run homer against the Toronto Blue Jays, a path to survival cleared for the Yankees, who were facing elimination in Game 3 of the American League Division Series.
Finally, after being dominated the first two games and falling behind by five runs Tuesday, there was life. Soon after, for the first time all series, the Yankees took the lead on Jazz Chisholm Jr.‘s laser to right field in the fifth inning.
In the end, fueled by their first offensive explosion of the postseason and a crucial bullpen performance, the Yankees won 9-6 to force a Game 4 on Wednesday.
“You just never know with the wind if it’s going to push it foul and keep curving or not,” Judge said. “But I guess a couple ghosts out there in Monument Park helped kind of keep that fair.”
The Blue Jays had been 39-0 this season when leading by at least five runs. The Yankees had not won a playoff game after trailing by at least five runs since the 2010 AL Championship Series, and they became the fifth team in history to overcome a five-run deficit when facing elimination.
“It was just keep putting together at-bats,” Bellinger said. “Grinding away, chipping away. The confidence in this room is very high. We all believe in each other. Not an ideal start for us, obviously, but we got to pick each other up, and we did a good job of that today.”
The series shifted to the Bronx after two games in Toronto, but the script appeared nearly identical early. Outscored 23-8 at Rogers Centre, the Yankees fell behind 6-1 through 2½ innings Tuesday. Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continued his superstar turn with his third home run of the series, a two-run blast in the first inning. All-Star Carlos Rodón lasted just 2⅓ innings, forcing New York’s bullpen to cover at least 20 outs.
The Yankees were reeling again.
But this time, they rebounded, tallying two runs in the third inning, three in the fourth on Judge’s power display, two more in the fifth and a final one in the sixth with help from two Toronto errors and Anthony Santander‘s errant diving attempt on a double by Bellinger.
Meanwhile, five Yankees relievers combined to toss 6⅔ scoreless innings. Devin Williams logged 1⅓ frames — the first time he has pitched more than one inning this season — to extend his scoreless streak to 12⅓ innings since Sept. 7. David Bednar followed to finish the job with a five-out save.
“They were awesome,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said of the relievers. “Again, I don’t think any of them, hopefully, are overly taxed too, with the game tomorrow.”
On the other side, the Blue Jays used six relievers to cover 5⅓ innings after Shane Bieber exited with two outs in the third inning. Louis Varland, the second one summoned, was inserted by manager John Schneider to face Judge in the fourth inning. The hard-throwing right-hander got ahead 0-2 when he threw a pitch that he nor anybody else in the stadium thought Judge could hit over the wall and keep fair.
“It just shows he’s just unbelievable,” Chisholm said of Judge. “We all went over the video about 10 times in the dugout after he hit it. It was crazy.”
“You just never know with the wind if it’s going to push it foul and keep curving or not. But I guess a couple ghosts out there in Monument Park helped kind of keep that fair.”
Aaron Judge
The blast was the sixth of Judge’s career in potential elimination games, tying David Ortiz for the most in postseason history. The two-time AL MVP finished Tuesday’s contest 3-for-4 with a double and an intentional walk, pushing his playoff batting average to .500 and OPS to 1.304. Judge added two diving catches in right field and heads-up baserunning that led to a run in the third inning.
Heavily scrutinized for his October struggles in previous years, Judge is carrying the Yankees.
“It was a best-player-in-the-game type performance,” Boone said. “It was special when, obviously, needless to say, we’re backs against the wall and then some in a Game 3 situation.”
The Yankees will be in that position again in Game 4, their fourth elimination game in less than a week. They will have, on paper, the pitching edge with Cam Schlittler getting the start and the Blue Jays deploying a bullpen game with Varland as the opener.
The path to survive another day and force a winner-take-all Game 5 in Toronto on Friday is there.
“For us, it’s about living to fight another day, right?” Bellinger said. “That’s all you can really do in this game.”
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Greg Wyshynski
The Colorado Avalanche are going to win the 2026 Stanley Cup.
I made the declaration about a month ago when pressed for a Cup pick. At the time, I thought I was being a Brooklyn hipster going against a wave of sentiment behind the Edmonton Oilers, who have lost consecutive Stanley Cup Finals; the Dallas Stars, who have lost three straight Western Conference finals; and the Vegas Golden Knights, who added Mitch Marner in the offseason.
Imagine my surprise when I looked at the ESPN hockey family’s season predictions and saw the Avalanche were in fact the chalk of a very crowded field. A hipster picker’s nightmare, indeed.
As is tradition, I revealed my Stanley Cup selection to a member of that team while at the player media tour in Las Vegas:
Me: I wanted to inform you that I’m picking you guys to win the Stanley Cup.
Avalanche star Cale Makar: I appreciate that.
Me: I also wanted to inform you that I’m not good at making Stanley Cup predictions.
Makar: Well, we’ll prove that wrong, hopefully.
I have the Avalanche winning the Cup over the Carolina Hurricanes, who are in at least their sixth attempt to break through in the Eastern Conference under coach Rod Brind’amour. I explain why below in my full 2025-26 NHL season standings predictions.
Here’s my division-by-division breakdown. Playoff teams are bolded. Good luck to all 32 teams. Hope everyone has fun out there.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Tampa Bay Lightning
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida Panthers
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
Boston Bruins
There’s probably no greater example of the constant power rebalancing in the Atlantic than the fact that the Lightning haven’t finished atop the division since 2018-19. That’s despite having Nikita Kucherov, second only to Connor McDavid in points (378) over the past three seasons; Andrei Vasilevskiy, third in save percentage (.913) in that span; Victor Hedman, seventh in points among defensemen (191) and a defensive rock on which to build; and the rest of a cast that includes Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel.
Oh, and behind the bench a guy named Jon Cooper, considered by everyone except Jack Adams Award voters to be the best coach in the league.
The Lightning will win the Atlantic this season handily. Kucherov’s line with Point and Guentzel averaged over four goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The duo of Cirelli and Hagel produced a 61% expected goals percentage together last season. Ryan McDonagh, a true glue guy, returned to the scene of his two Stanley Cup wins and had one of the most underappreciated seasons by a defenseman in 2024-25. Tampa Bay gets full seasons of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, and 24-year-old Gage Goncalves has another gear to hit. The Bolts will have at least one new banner to raise in the rafters after this season.
One of the bottom-feeders in the Atlantic was eventually going to be full enough to rise into contention, and that ended up being the Senators, who made the playoffs last spring for the first time since 2017. They’ll continue to ascend provided the forward group cooperates.
Brady Tkachuk, growing into one of the NHL’s greatest captains, needs to get back to the mid-30s in goals — and having linemate Tim Stützle return to the 90-point plateau is key in that. Dylan Cozens already showed he’s going to be the next in the grand tradition of Buffalo Sabres’ transactional regrets after last year’s trade deadline pickup. But this season hinges on players such as Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig and Fabian Zetterlund, a trade deadline dud whom Ottawa still extended for three seasons.
The forwards being make-or-break means I’m fairly confident in the Sens’ back end. Jake Sanderson established himself as an elite top-pairing guy, which has allowed Thomas Chabot to thrive on a second pairing with Nick Jensen. Jordan Spence comes over from the Kings to significantly upgrade what Travis Hamonic gave the Sens last season. Linus Ullmark was awesome from December on last season. His crease-mate, Leevi Merilainen, could be a sneaky Calder Trophy candidate. There’s a lot to like here for coach Travis Green, who made major strides in giving this team some defensive structure last season. The Senators are adding while others in the Atlantic are subtracting.
Losing Mitch Marner means losing points in the standings for the Maple Leafs. He’s a 100-point winger who led the team in power-play points and was their best penalty-killing forward. Did that transfer over to the postseason? Absolutely not, which is why Marner deserved criticism, though perhaps not to pariah levels. But no one had a higher wins above replacement on the Leafs last regular season than Marner (2.8). I’m sure that will be celebrated when he returns to Toronto with Vegas on Jan. 23 for a game that’ll make John Tavares‘ return to Long Island as a Leaf look like a concert by The Wiggles by comparison.
The “Core Four” lost one but might have gained another. Replacing Mitch Marner with Matthew Knies appears a bit like the Ninja Turtles swapping Leonardo for Casey Jones, but Knies is primed to pop after a 29-goal campaign. The Leafs know what they have in William Nylander, who is eighth in goals scored (125) over the past three seasons, and they have him next to Tavares, who at 35 is half the player he used to be and is paid as such. If we’re going by his career cadence, Auston Matthews should score over 60 goals this season. The Leafs would probably settle for seeing the former MVP’s dangerous dominance after injuries diminished him last season. So would Team USA in the Olympic Games in February.
The Leafs imported Matias Maccelli from Utah to help replace Marner’s points, and it still seems like a weird decision to add a guy who had six hits in 55 games to a Craig Berube team. Because everywhere you look on this roster, you’re starting to see a Craig Berube team: Nicolas Roy, acquired from Vegas in Marner’s departure, is a very solid 3C. A full season of Brandon Carlo adds to a blue line full of size and punishment in front of the goaltenders Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who made me a believer last year despite their constant injury concerns. There’s a sturdiness here that would normally lead to playoff success. The Maple Leafs’ undoing might be not having enough superstar offensive skill around it.
Speaking of talent subtractions: Can the Panthers survive without Matthew Tkachuk until at least December and without Aleksander Barkov until at least April? The answer is “in this conference, probably.” But it brings me no joy to report that the Panthers’ three-peat attempt could end with them missing the playoffs entirely, especially given how much I’ve grown to love the beach vistas and fried fish in covering their past three runs to the Stanley Cup Final.
The Panthers’ most important player this season is Sam Reinhart, full stop. Over the past two seasons playing without Barkov on his line (593:21 in 5-on-5 ice time), the Panthers had 0.75 fewer goals per 60 minutes with Reinhart on the ice while breaking even in what they scored and gave up. Coach Paul Maurice seems to favor bumping Brad Marchand up with Sam Bennett while Eetu Luostarinen and Anton “Baby Barkov” Lundell play with Reinhart during Tkachuk’s absence. When Tkachuk comes back, Reinhart, who has scored 160 goals in 321 games since joining the Panthers, will still have to drive his line in Barkov’s absence, which isn’t a given.
There’s probably something freeing for a two-time defending champ to enter a season with the pressure somewhat diminished by these injuries. The Panthers already had a “just get in” mindset for the playoffs. Now, they can hunker down, and rely on a defensive structure fortified by arguably the best top four in the conference — Aaron Ekblad and Gus Forsling, Seth Jones and Niko Mikkola — in front of Sergei Bobrovsky. GM Bill Zito kept this band together to try to become the NHL’s first dynasty with three consecutive Cups since the 1980s Islanders. With a healthy Tkachuk and Barkov, the three-peat could be within reach. But getting an invite to that playoff party will be harder than it has been since Maurice arrived in Sunrise.
The Sabres are easily the most confounding team in the Atlantic this season. They’ve regressed in the standings in consecutive seasons. Health seems to always be a concern, never more so than when Josh Norris is being relied upon as a critical center. The goaltending is more “fingers crossed” than Vezina Trophy-worthy. There are some givens — Tage Thompson‘s offensive rampage to ensure an Olympic roster spot, Rasmus Dahlin potentially being the Norris Trophy flavor of the season — but the incremental improvements GM Kevyn Adams has made to this roster don’t seem to answer its many questions.
That established, the hockey analytics community loves the Sabres this season more than data scraping in Python. Most fancy stats analysts I read have them finishing with over 90 points, with my friends at Evolving Hockey going as high as 99 points. As Jack “JFresh” Fraser writes in his season preview: “Ryan McLeod, Owen Power, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins — all pretty good to great players. This is a team that’s had abundant weak links for years and seems, maybe, to have patched them up for a change. Add in Dahlin and Thompson, who both profile like superstars, and there you go. Would I put money on it? Hell no. But it’s something to watch for.”
The Canadiens also broke out last season to qualify for the playoffs, losing to the Washington Capitals in five games. I think this talented young team takes a step back this season before an eventual leap forward. The Canadiens can’t defend. They’re a playoff team whose expected goals against last season at even strength (2.87, 31st) ranked behind the San Jose Sharks, who were disinterested in playing defense at all. They were fourth from the bottom in scoring chances allowed. I don’t think they’ve done much to remedy that. In fact, it might have gotten worse, despite all that Noah Dobson and Ivan Demidov can bring plenty to the team offensively. There’s only so much that Sam Montembeault can paper over with goaltending that saw him save 25 goals above expected last season.
The latest amendment to GM Steve Yzerman’s “Yzerplan,” which the Red Wings have executed since 2019: Finally getting John Gibson out of Anaheim for the last two years of his contract. Detroit used four goalies last season, and Cam Talbot was the only keeper. This new goalie battery on a Todd McLellan-coached team gave me pause, but not as much as Gibson’s inability to stay in the lineup does. Otherwise, it’s another season with some young bright spots — Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Lucas Raymond and hopefully Marco Kasper, or else Detroit’s in real trouble this season. The Wings don’t have the talent to make the playoffs but have enough of it to limit their lottery odds. Which is unfortunately the most palpable result of the Yzerplan.
I might be low on the Bruins here. If the defense corps is healthy in front of Jeremy Swayman, who had a proper training camp this time, they could grind out some wins for first-year coach Marco Sturm. And by “defense corps” we essentially mean Charlie McAvoy, who was limited to 50 games last season while posting his lowest points-per-60 minutes average in six seasons. But even a return to Norris contention for Charlie Mac isn’t going to turn the tide for Boston, whose overall depth is that of a team which went on a selling spree at last season’s trade deadline. David Pastrnak is now Ilya Kovalchuk on the Atlanta Thrashers: someone who’s good for 50 goals and a 100-point pace no matter who surrounds him, but in service of a basement dweller.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
Carolina Hurricanes
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers
Whereas the Atlantic Division has some upwardly mobile teams below the contenders, the Metro feels like four teams with strong playoff chances and then four teams those top four will mine for points — with one exception.
The Hurricanes are tied with the Oilers and Golden Knights for the best odds to make the playoffs on ESPN BET, which says as much about the relative strengths of the Metro and Pacific as it does about these teams. I infamously picked the Hurricanes to miss the playoffs in last year’s column, and hey, it’s not like they made it all the way to the conference finals to make me look like a total idiot. Picking them to win the Metro and the entire Eastern Conference is not an act of contrition but a tacit admission that Carolina has hit that sweet spot of veteran impact players comingling with outstanding young stars in the most consistently effective coaching system in the NHL.
What a long, strange trip it’s been for GM Eric Tulsky. He landed Jake Guentzel at the 2024 trade deadline, only to bow out in the second round and watch him leave for Tampa Bay. Still seeking that playoff scoring solution, Tulsky last season landed Taylor Hall from Chicago and Mikko Rantanen from Colorado for Martin Necas, but traded Rantanen after just 13 games because he wouldn’t commit long-term in Raleigh.
That resulted in Carolina getting Logan Stankoven, an outstanding 22-year-old forward, and a bunch of picks from Dallas. And after searching the free agent options for top-line left wing help, the Hurricanes went down a tier and signed Nikolaj Elhers from the Jets, a play-driving winger with some injury history who’s nonetheless well suited for what they do. They money they didn’t spend on Rantanen went to Ehlers and defenseman K’Andre Miller, a pending restricted free agent acquired from the Rangers partially through one of the first-rounders they received from Dallas. He joins a deep defense corps bolstered by one of the NHL’s best rookies in Alexander Nikishin.
There are some points of concern with the Canes, starting with second-line center. Jesperi Kotkaniemi hasn’t been the answer. They’ve been using Stankoven there and might still try Seth Jarvis as an internal solution. This might be where Tulsky tries to use his cap space and draft capital to improve the team before the deadline. Or perhaps that’ll be in goal, where Frederik Andersen remains dominant but a constant injury concern, with Pyotr Kochetkov yet to show he’s anything but a downgrade.
Rod Brind’Amour has led the Hurricanes to a .604 points percentage or better in six of his seven season as head coach. He has led them to the conference finals three times without ever playing for the Stanley Cup. The Canes will kick that wall down this season with a tenacious, talented group that has room for improvement.
Are the Devils keeping their powder dry for a run at Quinn Hughes? They’d be silly not to if there’s even a small chance that Vancouver trades him to “play with his brothers” before his 2027 unrestricted free agency. But the reason the Devils tinkered with the roster instead of taking big swings is likely because they like what they have already and want to see what it looks like with a healthy Jack Hughes.
They were 33-23-6 with Hughes in the lineup until his injury on March 2, creating a points cushion that enabled them to still make the playoffs despite losing 12 of their final 21 games of the season. He has been over 3.2 points per 60 minutes in each of his past four seasons. Hughes is everything for the Devils, from being their offensive engine to being the reason they just paid a 22-year-old defenseman $63 million for services yet rendered. If Luke Hughes is happy, Jack’s hopefully happy.
New Jersey has a deeply talented blue line and the goaltending tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, who took their team save percentage from 30th to 11th. GM Tom Fitzgerald had a nice signing in former Oiler Connor Brown and has anointed Cody Glass as the third-line center to start the season. If the bottom six is better and the team has better injury luck, the Devils are poised to make noise this season. Or, failing that, just trade for Quinn, I guess.
The Capitals don’t know what the future holds for 40-year-old Alex Ovechkin, who is now the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer at 897 and in the last year of his contract. But Capitals coach Spencer Carbery told ESPN’s “The Drop” that he’s relieved there isn’t another overriding Ovechkin story that his team is experiencing every night on the road, with “Ovi’s last season” replacing The Great Chase.
“Definitely. No doubt. If that was the case then every building you go into, especially the Western teams, it’ll be the last time definitely that he goes into those arenas,” he said.
Instead, the Capitals can remain focused on repeating their incredible 111-point campaign from last season, which saw them advance to the second round of the playoffs. GM Chris Patrick won almost every bet he made last offseason, such as with Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun and Logan Thompson. Provided there’s little to no regression there, and young players such as Aliaksei Protas and Ryan Leonard progress, they’ll keep Ovechkin in contention in what could be his final NHL season.
The Rangers were messy last season, but regime change generally is. GM Chris Drury played hardball with veterans who had trade protection, resulting in captain Jacob Trouba and franchise pillar Chris Kreider flying to Anaheim and former Ranger J.T. Miller returning from Vancouver to say, “I’m the captain now.” Coach Peter Laviolette paid with his job for the Rangers’ descent from the conference finals to outside the postseason. Enter Mike Sullivan, another former Ranger (as assistant coach from 2009 to 2013), who escaped the rebuilding Penguins.
The Rangers have enough talent in the right places to overcome significant lineup holes and earn a playoff spot this season. Miller’s arrival helped pull Mika Zibanejad out of a nightmarish season. Will Cuylle is burgeoning star who’ll take over most of what Kreider was doing in the lineup. The line of Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck is a dependable force — and Panarin is in a contract year, too.
The Rangers need Adam Fox to recapture the magic of his Norris Trophy form, and importing Kings defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov as a free agent should do the trick. Provided Igor Shesterkin bounces back with a better structure in front of him — and he had 21.6 goals saved above expected — the Rangers should be the fourth Metro playoff team, if not much more than that.
It doesn’t get more inspiring than what the Blue Jackets did last season, finishing two points out of a playoff spot while playing through unfathomable grief. I love what they’re building in Columbus, and a wild-card spot isn’t out of the question.
It’s conceivable that Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko all take another huge leap forward surrounded by an improved supporting cast — I love the Charlie Coyle addition. It’s possible that Denton Mateychuk has a breakout season on a blue line that needs more skill. But the season probably rests on the shoulder pads of 24-year-old Jet Greaves, and whether he’s good enough to wrest the crease from Elvis Merzlikins. Because someone needs to.
The combination of a CBA-mandated relaxed dress code and the post-Lou Lamoriello lift on facial hair restrictions could have the Islanders’ dressing room looking like Bonnaroo. Frankly, it’s about time this organization had an infusion of personality, and it arrives in the form of 18-year-old Matthew Schaefer. The No. 1 pick has boundless enthusiasm and charisma to spare. This is largely the same roster that Lamoriello created, which finished with 82 points last season. A full season of Mathew Barzal probably gets the Islanders slightly more than that, but not much more.
There’s no point in assessing the playoff potential of the Penguins, whose roster is like a random name generator surrounding a core of six veterans stuck in hockey purgatory under new head coach Dan Muse. The entire conversation about this team will be about what happens to that core by the trade deadline, most specifically the fates of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Everyone around Sid wants the legend to remove himself from this narrative, join a Stanley Cup contender and thrive in the postseason spotlight again. But he has steadfastly dedicated himself to seeing things through in Pittsburgh as a Shein version of the Capitals’ retool around Ovechkin. I’m still optimistic that he’ll change his mind. I’m even more convinced that Malkin will move this season, especially after he cast an appreciative eye toward the fun Brad Marchand was having last season. You know, with the Florida Panthers, the team near one of Malkin’s homes in Miami and that currently has an opening for a veteran No. 1 center. Just sayin’.
The most that the Flyers can hope for this season is the continued progress of its young players as new coach Rick Tocchet power-drills fundamentals into them. They’re going to be a tough out and fun to watch, depending on how much time Trevor Zegras and Matvei Michkov are given to create content. But the Flyers aren’t likely to grab too many headlines in Philadelphia this season. The Jalen Hurts discourse can continue, uninterrupted.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Utah Mammoth
Winnipeg Jets
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
The simplest justification for why I think the Avalanche will win the Stanley Cup is that they again have the essential building blocks for a championship team. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are top-five NHL players overall and one Connor McDavid away from both being the best at what they do. The Avs have their No. 2 center in Brock Nelson after years of post-Nazem Kadri searching. They have a goalie in Mackenzie Blackwood who has at least the potential to be the guy who might not win you a series but won’t lose it for you either.
(Results are pending on that last one.)
Can Martin Necas give them 75% of what Mikko Rantanen did, as was the gamble in trading their star winger last season? Can Samuel Girard and Josh Manson be the rock-solid second paring behind the ridiculously good Makar and Devon Toews? Can Gabriel Landeskog, one of last season’s most heartwarming stories that lacked a storybook ending, become Gabriel Landeskog again?
I’m saying yes to all of this. I’m also putting my faith in an aggressive front office to once again bolster this lineup before the postseason if necessary, whether incrementally or with a big swing. Say, did you hear Nathan MacKinnon grew up in Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia? I wonder if that’s relevant to any other current events in the NHL …
Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022, the Avalanche have been eliminated in the first round to Seattle, the second round to Dallas and the first round to Dallas again. That last seven-game loss to the Stars left MacKinnon “shocked” and unsure how to process it. That’s exactly what you want to hear as an Avalanche fan. Palpable disgust is what fueled MacKinnon’s first Cup win. The tank’s nearly full again.
The first question that needs to be asked about the Stars is whether they made three straight Western Conference finals because they were coached by Pete DeBoer or because they were a three-time conference finalist that he happened to coach. We’ll find out now that DeBoer is somewhere muttering things about Jake Oettinger under his breath while Glen Gulutzan, an Oilers assistant who coached the Stars from 2011 to 2013, takes over.
The Stars are still in the sweet spot for NHL teams: productive veterans and outstanding young players and a franchise goalie combining for a Cup-worthy team. Last season saw them add a superstar in Mikko Rantanen, and anyone who watched the playoffs understands his postseason impact.
Yet Dallas has room for improvement. Teams of scientists are still trying to determine what happened to Wyatt Johnston in the 2025 playoffs, mustering four goals in 18 games with a minus-16. The Matt Duchene regression seems inevitable. They’re going to have to replace what they lost in Mikael Granlund, Mason Marchment and Evgenii Dadonov. The young standouts such as Thomas Harley, Lian Bichsel and Mavrik Bourque must continue to level up.
Again: The Dallas Stars can win the Stanley Cup this season if the mix is right and the path is friendly. One just hopes that DeBoer didn’t take their window to win with him, and that the legacy of his group is as the Western Conference’s annual bridesmaid.
The Mammoth will make the playoffs. I’m a believer that the core they’ve built there — Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley — is trending to be the type of elite trio that powers a team to the postseason. Keller and Nick Schmaltz anchor one line. Cooley, whose ceiling increasingly looks to be a Jack Hughes-adjacent player, is in the middle of Guenther and JJ Peterka, their big offseason acquisition from the Buffalo Sabres.
It gets a wee thinner at forward after that, with more role players (Lawson Crouse, Brandon Tanev) than impact players. But that’s fine. The Mammoth don’t need to be the Florida Panthers. They just need their top two lines to be their motor.
Speaking of the Panthers, the delightful Nate Schmidt joins a Mammoth back end that was besieged by injuries last season. A full season of Sean Durzi and John Marino is essential to Utah’s success. I’m also interested in seeing if and when rookie Maveric Lamoureux, a really talented 6-foot-6 shutdown defender, makes his mark. Fingers crossed that Karel Vejmelka gives the Mammoth another strong season with a more dependable backup in Vitek Vanecek. If the back end holds up, the first Stanley Cup playoff games played in Salt Lake City await.
The Wild, Blues and Jets are all going to be in the mix for the wild cards, with maybe one team from the Pacific Division contending against them. The Central has boasted five playoff teams twice in the past four seasons.
The Jets are easily the best team of these three, and they’re my pick to make the playoffs again on the strength of Connor Hellebuyck, who rightfully won the Hart and the Vezina last season. His side quest to the Olympics means some extra physical and mental strain, but he’s going to give the Jets at least 60 games of the league’s best goaltending. He’s on that McDavid and MacKinnon level of being able to will a team into the postseason on his own.
He’ll have to be great because the team in front of him is diminished after Nikolaj Ehlers left in free agency. Maybe that would be further diminished: The Jets were 20th in 5-on-5 scoring chances last season and 13th in expected goals. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele combined for 80 goals last season. Without Ehlers, they need continued support from Gabriel Vilardi, and more of it from Cole Perfetti. (What Jonathan Toews gives them as a No. 2 center at this stage of his career is anyone’s guess.)
In the end, they’re solid enough defensively in front of the league’s best goaltender that this offense can get them into the playoffs, but it’s going to be a precipitous drop from last season’s 116-point campaign.
The Blues were one shot away from eliminating the Jets in Game 7 of the first round before losing in double overtime, and this is the first time I realized how ironic that must have been for Jordan Binnington after the 4 Nations Face-Off.
There’s a lot that I like about the Blues, beginning with coach Jim Montgomery. They went 35-18-7 after he abruptly took over from Drew Bannister just 22 games into the season. He got them to hunker down defensively in front of Binnington, as the Blues were fourth in NHL in goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Jimmy Snuggerud is going to be a rookie sensation and will give this team valuable secondary scoring behind the usual suspects like Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. I’m not in love with the aging curve of the Blues’ top three defensemen, but there’s no question that Colton Parayko played himself back onto everyone’s radar and the team hit a new gear once GM Doug Armstrong rescued Cam Fowler from the Ducks.
I have St. Louis right on the cusp of the playoff bubble. If the Blues make it, no surprise. If they barely miss it, no surprise. Heck, if they finish second in the division, no surprise because Montgomery gets that out of teams. But Monty’s teams can also sometimes underwhelm you offensively without stars doing star things — see David Pastrnak during the coach’s time with the Bruins. The Blues don’t have that guy, and they ended up 27th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season at 5-on-5. I think they barely miss.
The Wild will spend $136 million to keep Kirill Kaprizov through 2033-34. Bold prediction: At some point during that run, the Wild will have built a Stanley Cup contender around him. You can see the broad strokes of it now. Brock Faber and Zeev Buium anchoring the defense. Jesper Wallstedt as the franchise goalie. Offense up front from Matt Boldy, Danila Yurov and … uh … is Marco Rossi officially not going to be traded?
Point being that this feels like a transition year for the Wild. I’m not a huge fan of their offensive depth beyond Kaprizov, assuming he remains healthy. Which he better be, because with him limited to 41 games last season, the Wild were the worst 5-on-5 team offensively in the NHL, with expected goals percentage 29th. That was the reason they finished minus-11 in goal differential last season, second worst among all playoff teams.
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Wild ink Kirill Kaprizov to largest contact in NHL history
Check out the numbers behind Kirill Kaprizov’s record NHL deal.
The Predators held on to coach Andrew Brunette, not only because GM Barry Trotz believes in the offensive game he preaches, but also because the team would probably be paying him not to coach until at least 2027. He was part of those offseason additions a year ago that had us all convinced the Predators were going to be a force in the Western Conference, until it became apparent that the Lightning guessed right on Steven Stamkos‘ decline, Brady Skjei was a product of the Hurricanes’ system and Jonathan Marchessault‘s game is much better when surrounded by contender-level talent. Factor in Juuse Saros playing to below replacement level, and Nashville was cooked like Hattie B’s.
Are the Predators going to be better than 68 points this season? Undoubtedly yes if Saros has an average season and the team isn’t out of the playoff race by early December like it was last season, when it went 7-16-6 in its first 29 games. But that won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in the Central. Does Trotz need to have some tough conversations with players who have term and trade protection about the direction of this team? Or is there any way the team’s next wave — such as Matthew Wood, Fedor Svechkov and eventually Brady Martin — breaks out in time to maximize the years left on those veterans’ contracts?
Finally, some reasons to watch the Blackhawks beyond Connor Bedard, who might not spend the next seven months feeling dejected and competitively lonely. Frank Nazar is legit, although he’s going to have the same “center who should really be a winger” discourse surrounding him that Bedard does. I want to see what Sam Rinzel does as a 6-foot-4 power-play point man. The Blackhawks are going to be terrible — hopefully less so under new coach Jeff Blashill — but at least we can tune in for glimpses of the future rather than a bunch of veteran placeholders orbiting Bedard for 82 games.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Edmonton Oilers
Vegas Golden Knights
Los Angeles Kings
Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Seattle Kraken
San Jose Sharks
For all the fanfare about Connor McDavid forgoing free agency to re-sign with the Oilers, the fact remains that he heard their plans, looked at their roster and decided that he’s spending only the next three seasons chasing a Stanley Cup with them. Although that doesn’t inspire much confidence about the long-term prospects of the Oilers, it does mean McDavid believes there’s enough here to win in the short term.
(And hey, cheer up, Leon Draisaitl, even though McDavid might bolt in summer 2028 and you’re signed through 2032-33. Remember: Mark Messier won the Cup after Wayne Gretzky left!)
In many ways, this is the same team that came up short against the Panthers (again) in the Stanley Cup Final, albeit one that should have a healthy Zach Hyman at some point in the next few months. GM Stan Bowman made some additions by subtraction (such as Evander Kane) and is hoping a combination of veteran additions like Andrew Mangiapane and an infusion of youth in players like Matthew Savoie can provide the secondary scoring the team needs behind Connor and Leon.
Edmonton’s top six defensemen are pretty terrific, especially with the emergence of Jake Walman. The goaltending is … well, the kind of thing that probably makes McDavid want to sign only a two-year extension. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, last seen being the evil of two lessers before a Stanley Cup Final elimination game, are back, and the Oilers hope former Utah goalie Connor Ingraham might be able to contribute at some point as well.
Kris Knoblauch has coached this team to a .656 points percentage in 151 regular-season games. There’s no reason to believe the Oilers can’t repeat that feat this season. On paper, this doesn’t look like a team destined for a third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final, but it would be foolhardy to bet against McDavid and Draisaitl finding a way to get back there. And if they fall short … one down, two to go before Connor Watch begins again.
It’s a bit surprising to see the Golden Knights get so much support as a Stanley Cup favorite given that Alex Pietrangelo, their most important defenseman, will miss the season with a hip issue. But with Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud, they still have a stout top four on defense in front of Adin Hill and whoever will end up sharing the crease with him.
But the reason the Golden Knights have inspired this kind of buzz can be summed up in two words: Mitch and Marner. Imagine the feeling of being extracted from the Toronto pressure cooker to end up on Jack Eichel‘s wing — and imagine being Jack Eichel, lining up with a 100-point, 200-foot player who could elevate your game to unforeseen heights. Their line with Ivan Barbashev could reach juggernaut status. The same could be said for the Knights’ checking line: Reilly Smith and Mark Stone flanking William Karlsson. As the Panthers have shown in the past two seasons, it’s almost unfair to have a third line that good. (And that’s with no slight to the Knights’ second line, anchored by Tomas Hertl.)
The Western Conference is better when the Knights are swaggering villains. Landing Marner, the offseason’s top free agent prize, who has his share of detractors, has helped restock the bile reserves for Vegas.
I love Kings captain Anze Kopitar proclaiming that this season will be his last. Not only does it mean the NHL writ large can celebrate the legacy of one of the best two-way centers and best Slovenian player in league history — with apologies to Jan Mursak — but it means the Kings are going to be extra aggressive in trying to maximize their last year with him.
The Kings have enough offensive weaponry around Kopitar (10th in expected goals for at 5-on-5 last season) to thrive. Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are both coming off 35-goal seasons, and Quinton Byfield has more to give. Imagine where their offense would have been with something better than the 27th-best power play in the NHL last season.
My concerns, beyond Jim Hiller’s atrocious decision-making in the playoffs: that the depth on their defense, including Cody Ceci and Joel Edmundson, is too ineffective and slow; that goalie Darcy Kuemper regresses from his Vezina-nominated season; and that GM Ken Holland’s peculiar first offseason as Kings GM negatively impacts the roster. But hey, he did sign Corey Perry, which obviously means the Kings will play for the Stanley Cup.
I have the Canucks in the playoffs because I’m taking the completely naïve approach that everything will work itself out. That Elias Pettersson can regain his 100-point form after a healthy offseason and with the toxins drained out of the Canucks’ locker room now that J.T. Miller is on the Rangers. That the Canucks have the good sense to pair Pettersson with a returning Brock Boeser. That Filip Chytil remains healthy enough. That Thatcher Demko remains healthy enough. That Quinn Hughes remains healthy enough and is a Norris finalist while — and this is the crucial part — wearing a Vancouver jersey this season instead of one with devil horns.
If all of these things happen, the Canucks are a playoff team. If half of them happen … well, maybe the Central gets five teams in the playoffs again this season.
In my bold predictions for the 2025-26 season, I said the Ducks would be in the playoff hunt until the last week of the race. I’m sticking to that. For better or worse, Joel Quenneville is back behind an NHL bench, and I’m confident he’s going to unlock something in players such as Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish and Jackson LaCombe that Greg Cronin failed to unleash. It’s a heavy lift for the Ducks to go from hapless defensive sieve to playoff bubble contender, and I’m putting a lot of faith in that influx of veteran talent — Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund included — to get this group of ducklings waddling in the right direction. Well, that and goalie Lukas Dostal continuing to progress toward franchise goaltender status.
The Flames shocked the league last season with a 96-point campaign that was a tiebreaker away from postseason qualification. They can thank Gilroy, California’s own Dustin Wolf for that, backstopping them to 29 wins in 53 games with a .910 save percentage, and finishing second in the voting for NHL rookie for the year. I’m still trying to figure out this magic trick, considering how utterly average the Flames were at 5-on-5 last season.
As has been the case since Matthew Tkachuk was traded, they’re a supporting cast in search of a star. Now they’re caught in a purgatory as some of their top names are aging out (Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund) while the next wave — like brilliant 19-year-old defenseman Zayne Parekh — needs some time to ripen. This could be a double-digit points decline, but the future is bright for the Flames.
I’ve seen projections that have the Kraken anywhere from 72 points to 84 points under new head coach Lane Lambert. I’ll take the lower end of that scale. I didn’t love the Kraken’s underlying offensive numbers last season (28th in expected goals for, 30th in scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5), and the Islanders were middle of the pack at best during his time as their head coach. It’s a middling team in need of a new direction under GM Jason Botterill. A robust trade deadline sale under a rising salary cap would be a good start.
Much like Macklin Celebrini had he remained at Boston University, the Sharks are entering their junior year of college. It’s still a party, it’s still a team that can be bad but fun, and we find it charming. Players such as Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund and Michael Misa can flaunt gaudy offensive stats without being overly concerned with their plus/minus deficit. They can spend one more year in the draft lottery — and wouldn’t Gavin McKenna look great on Celebrini’s wing? — before it’s time to graduate to something resembling playoff contention next season.
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