How Igor-mania swept New York
New York has seen athletes like Igor Shesterkin before. They come to the city heralded by years of hype. Their arrival marks a new era for their teams. Unfortunately, these young stars get chewed up and spit out by an unrelenting, impatient monster of a market. But some, like Shesterkin, exceed those expectations, enchant the city and become sensations.
Which is why, after just 108 career NHL games, “Igor-mania” is running wild in NYC.
The 26-year-old was the NHL’s top goaltender last season, winning the Vezina Trophy and finishing third in the MVP race. He has become the most popular member of the New York Rangers, despite playing only four seasons. He has quickly entered that pantheon of elite New York sports stars, sliding into the spot vacated by Henrik Lundqvist — one icon comfortably taking over for another, like the Mario Lemieux era fading into the Sidney Crosby years in Pittsburgh.
“I am amazed that you can go from the Garden chanting ‘Hen-rik’ to ‘I-gor.’ He’s as good as advertised,” Mike Richter told me this week.
Richter is second to Lundqvist in wins and games played as a Ranger but cemented his legacy by breaking a 54-year curse for the franchise in back-stopping them to the 1994 Stanley Cup championship. His number hangs from the Madison Square Garden rafters, right next to Lundqvist’s. Perhaps the only flaw in his career was that he didn’t have a chantable first name.
“Yeah, you need that two syllable thing,” he said, with a laugh. “They went with ‘Rich-ter.’ It was fine. I’ll take anything.”
They chanted “Ed-die!” and “Beez-er!” too. Perhaps it has been obscured by their lack of Stanley Cup success — one Stanley Cup since 1940, as any Islanders or Devils fan can quote from memory — but the Rangers have one of the NHL’s strongest goaltending legacies.
Starting in 1953, the Gump Worsley era led to the Ed Giacomin era; John Davison was the bridge to the John Vanbiesbrouck era, which overlapped with the Richter era; Richter retired in 2003, and Lundqvist arrived in 2006; Lundqvist’s last season with the Rangers was 2020, which is when Shesterkin arrived.
“Different personalities and different styles, but the common denominator is that we’re all competitors,” Richter said. “I think it’s a testament to how good their drafting is. You know, you don’t pull Henrik Lundqvist out of the seventh round without doing a little homework. Sometimes you get lucky, but there’s a pattern there.”
Richter spent all 14 years of his NHL career with the Rangers. He has been in Shesterkin’s skates before as a highly hyped novice goalie, finishing third in the Vezina voting as a rookie in 1990-91.
“Sometimes there’s an eyeroll about how much media coverage there is for New York teams. But with that comes a lot of challenges,” he said. “That’s part of the kind of bargain of playing in New York. And I wouldn’t have it any other way.
“I know lots of athletes are hesitant to come to New York. Once they do, they recognize what an incredible place it is to play and to live. And that the people, you know, surprisingly don’t eat their babies or whatever. These are great people that have a lot of demand of their teams and are passionate. Good or bad, they’re going to let you know how they feel.”
So far, it has been a honeymoon for Shesterkin in New York. He earned his “I-gor!” chants by winning 68 of his first 108 NHL games. His .935 save percentage and 2.07 goals-against average last season led the NHL en route to the Vezina. He followed that with a playoff performance that dragged the Rangers to the Eastern Conference finals, with a .929 save percentage.
“He stole some games last year that we had no business being in,” Rangers forward Ryan Reaves told me. “You need a goalie like that for deep playoff runs.”
Reaves played four years with Marc-Andre Fleury and said Shesterkin is “up there with him” when it comes to those mind-boggling saves you see when they’re locked into a game. He said that effort starts well before those games.
“I always say that you’ve got a good goalie when he’s battling on second and third pucks in practice,” Reaves said. “I’ve played with goalies where you take the first shot, the rebound goes in front and he really doesn’t care. Shesty will battle. I think that’s why he’s so good. He treats every puck like it’s never going in his net.”
If there’s one common rejoinder about Shesterkin from his Rangers teammates, it’s that competitive fire. Good goalies don’t want opponents to score on them. Elite goalies truly believe that opponents never should.
“He does take it personally,” Reaves said.
The Rangers have learned to live with that intensity. There’s a Jekyll and Hyde aspect to Shesterkin, based on whether or not he’s playing.
“Depends on the day, I guess,” Reeves said, smiling. “No, he’s a great guy. It’s just on game days, he’s definitely quiet. He’s a goalie that needs to focus. Don’t talk to him. Stay out of his way. Don’t be yelling at him or anything like that. Unless you’re releasing him.”
Reaves is referring to a ritual built around Shesterkin as the Rangers are ready to hit the ice. It was a bit the veteran winger started in Vegas that he carried over to New York. Shesterkin stands in front of his teammates as they wait inside the locker room hallway. Reaves then screams, “SHESTY: RELEASE USSSSSSSS!” and the goalie leads the Rangers to the rink.
Whoops ? pic.twitter.com/unzjycmpuZ
— New York Rangers (@NYRangers) October 17, 2022
Naturally, it has inspired its own T-shirt.
“Igor-mania” isn’t just about his stats. It has also been sparked by the panache with which he plays and the inherent goofiness he inspires from teammates.
“He’s awesome. His personality is awesome in and around the rink,” defenseman K’Andre Miller said. “He’s a quiet guy obviously — doesn’t speak that much English. But he’s opened up a good amount the last couple of years.”
Miller said the language barrier — Shesterkin’s English has improved, but he still uses a team-provided interpreter — make him more endearing.
“I think that adds to his goofiness, not knowing those social cues or a couple of words,” he said.
For defenseman Ryan Lindgren, who has played with Shesterkin in the Rangers organization since the goalie arrived in North America, Shesterkin’s good nature has allowed him to thrive in a difficult market.
“It’s a big thing for goalies. Don’t overstress. Be big on game days, and on off days, you let it go,” he said. “There’s a lot of pressure being a goalie and then playing in New York as well. That’s why it’s good that he’s having fun, not putting too much pressure on himself.”
But personality didn’t primarily make Shesterkin a star. Don La Greca, co-host of “The Michael Kay Show” on ESPN Radio in New York, draws a comparison with another local athlete in that regard: New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom.
“I don’t believe their personalities made them stars,” La Greca told me. “Both did it with their play. Both went from zero to 60 in a millisecond. Both did well in the postseason early in their careers.”
I asked La Greca how Shesterkin might surpass the accomplishments of Richter and Lundqvist, the two best Rangers goalies of the past 30 years.
“He has to win. Richter got the Cup. Hank had his looks and leadership along with his play to win people over,” La Greca said. “However, another way for Igor is his play with the puck. Mark my words: He will score a goal.”
Hopefully he does, and hopefully it happens at the Garden. In full disclosure, I was infected by “Igor-mania” while covering the Rangers’ playoff run last season. I’d put him right there with Connor McDavid, Cale Makar and Alex Ovechkin as players I’d pay to watch for their sheer entertainment value. It’s the way he makes those saves. It’s the way he handles the puck. It’s all the things that earn him those “I-gor!” chants echoing through the rafters where many of his predecessors in the Rangers’ crease have their numbers hanging.
You can feel it when an athlete has forged a bond with New York City. When they’re on a first-name basis with fans. When everyone knows that as long as they’re in the lineup, good things are possible.
“You go into every game knowing that you have a shot,” Reaves said. “If you’re in the middle of the game and he’s getting shelled and the boys don’t have it that night, then you’re like, ‘OK, we’ve gotta pick it up. But Shesty’s got us right now.'”
And New York’s got “Igor-mania” right now, too.
Jersey Foul of the week
From Jeff Veillette:
I guess they couldn’t decide pic.twitter.com/WsaQCx68nV
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 1, 2022
This P.K. Subban nameplate with a Carey Price number might be a confusing foul. But given their tight friendship as Montreal Canadiens teammates — remember the triple low-five? — perhaps this is a tribute jersey to the duo’s legacy for the bleu, blanc et rouge.
Video of the Week
the PAUSE on “father” ? pic.twitter.com/JdG7g1Roq0
— katie (@itsmitchmarney) November 1, 2022
If you’re not familiar with the Paul Marner discourse, he’s the father of Toronto Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner and has been a participant in several Toronto media news cycles.
In 2018, he spoke with The Athletic about Mitch and said, “It drives our family nuts when we hear you guys all talk about who should be the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch never hardly gets any consideration,” while comparing his on-ice temperament to that of Hockey Hall of Famer Doug Gilmour.
He was prominently mentioned by fans during Mitch Marner’s contract talks with the Leafs, as they believed he was feeding information to local media.
With that context, I loved this aside from Mitch Marner on Tuesday, as the Leafs continued to struggle. When asked if friends and family know not to inundate the players with what has been said about them in the media, Marner said, “None of us really kind of read it. … I mean, I guess my father does.”
This video demands a 40-minute podcast by psychology and body language experts, immediately.
Winners and losers of the week
Winner: Erik Karlsson
It might not last and it’s around three years too late for the San Jose Sharks, but it’s really awesome to see Karlsson playing at his Norris Trophy-level, point-per-game dominance again.
Jeff Marek asked me during a radio hit if Karlsson is a Hall of Famer. He had a six-year stretch that was Hall of Fame-worthy. As Eric Lindros showed, that might be all you need to earn your plaque.
Loser: St. Louis Blues
GM Doug Armstrong felt the need to answer for his team’s 3-5-0 start, which has inexplicably seen the NHL’s third-best scoring team from last season (3.77 goals per game) become the NHL’s worst-scoring team this season (2.38). Ryan O’Reilly has one point in eight games — think he misses David Perron? Jordan Kyrou has three goals but has gone scoreless in six of eight games and is a minus-13.
The Western Conference is too good to stumble around for too long. See also: Predators, Nashville.
Winner: Lindy Ruff
Has a coach ever gone from having fans chanting for his firing at the start of the season to being a Jack Adams Award finalist by the end of the season? Because if the New Jersey Devils keep rolling, that could be Ruff’s tale for 2022-23.
Loser: Barry Trotz’s intentions
Trotz let it be known that he would be open to a return to coaching by December and told the “Cam and Strick” podcast that he would be interested in coaching an Original Six team. Given that four of those six have first-year head coaches and the Rangers have Gerard Gallant. … Well, needless to say, Trotz sent Toronto into a tizzy.
He clarified his comments with Bob McCown, saying that he just never had the chance to coach an Original Six team before and that it wasn’t a Toronto-specific comment.
Which meant he forgot the No. 1 rule in hockey media: Everything is about the Leafs.
Winner: Boston Bruins Winter Classic logo
The @penguins and @NHLBruins Winter Classic logos have dropped.
The BOSTON wordmark is “a custom typeface created by adidas and inspired by the original spoked-B worn in 1948.”
Penguins’ logo is inspired by city’s original NHL franchise, the 1925 Pittsburgh Pirates. pic.twitter.com/Jia95CtZxb
— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) November 1, 2022
The wordmark is cool and unique. But as many Boston fans told me, the reason to celebrate this Fenway Classic logo is the return of … ahem … “meth bear.”
Loser: Pittsburgh Penguins Winter Classic logo
While I respect the history behind using the 1925 Pittsburgh Pirates logo as inspiration for the Penguins, their previous outdoor game jerseys have featured a tiny penguin in a little scarf. Anything else is a letdown.
Winner: Mullett Arena
Say what you will about the temporary home of the Arizona Coyotes — a college hockey arena on the campus of Arizona State University — but all the players who have competed there rave about the quality of the ice and the liveliness of the boards. “The ice was great. It was unbelievable. Even for warm-ups. It was awesome,” Winnipeg’s Cole Perfetti said.
Loser: Remaining at Mullett Arena
With the Tempe arena issue likely headed to the voters after the city council, and with the specter of potential litigation always looming, it’s looking like the Coyotes are going to have to pick up that optional fourth year in a college arena. Which is rough.
Puck headlines
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The Sportico NHL franchise valuations were an interesting read. There are 10 teams valued at over a billion dollars. I would not have expected the Jets to be more valuable than 10 other NHL teams, but here we are.
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John Tortorella has Sheldon Keefe’s back against the Toronto media: “I hope he jams it to you all, quite honestly.” Ouch!
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What is going on with Shane Wright and the Seattle Kraken? “Given Wright’s main obstacle seems his lack of experience facing fully grown men, it’s tough to see how another season against players mostly 19 and under would help his development.”
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Good piece by Stephen Whyno on how Bruce Boudreau has adapted through the years as an NHL head coach.
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Getting to know PHF MVP Kennedy Marchment of the Connecticut Whale.
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The Ottawa Senators are for sale, and the LeBreton Flats arena project holds the key to their future.
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Really liked this piece on the current state of the Maple Leafs. “I can’t remember the last time I looked forward to watching this team. I still do watch, and sometimes I don’t even end up regretting it. But these days, with this team and its history, it feels like a slog. It’s duty, or force of habit. The wins don’t matter and the losses all blend together, so what are we doing here?”
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How the Vancouver Canucks snagged Cobie Smulders for their pregame hype video. This reminds us of our favorite “How I Met Your Mother” moment, when Robin brags about meeting Mason Raymond and Barney proclaims is “the opposite of name dropping.”
From your friends at ESPN
Yours truly and Arda Ocal have taken our preview show “The Drop” and turned it into a weekly YouTube streaming show. Check out our Phil Kessel celebration, Roman Josi interview and much more.
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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