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The Bank of England has raised the base rate of interest by 0.75 percentage points to 3% – the single biggest increase in more than three decades – and said that the UK is already in recession.

The Bank warned that the UK could face a protracted contraction in the coming years, with high inflation and the unemployment rate climbing to 6.5% – the highest since the financial crisis.

The length of its forecasted recession – eight successive quarters in which gross domestic product shrinks – would make it the most protracted since comparable records began – albeit less deep than most previous downturns, including those in 2008/2009 and the 1980s.

The economy would still be well below its 2022 size at the end of 2025.

Enormous uncertainty hangs over these forecasts, however: on the one hand they are based on market expectations for interest rates that were unusually high, which makes the economic outlook seem gloomier than it might be in practice.

On the other hand, they do not incorporate any of the expected spending cuts and tax rises the Treasury is considering imposing at its autumn statement on 17 November, which would worsen the outlook.

Rates may rise further

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Andrew Bailey, the Bank governor, told a news conference: “From where we stand now, we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year, probably quite sharply.

“To make sure that happens, Bank rate may have to go up further in the coming months… but by less than currently priced in financial markets.

“That’s important, because it means the rates on new fixed-term mortgages should not need to rise as they have done.”

Markets reacted to the gloomy update through further pressure on the pound.

It had slumped against a surging dollar earlier in the day but later fell further to $1.11 – a decline of more than two cents.

The recession forecast by the Bank is partly a consequence of higher energy prices, after the chancellor’s decision to curtail the length of the energy price guarantee (which limits the amount households can be charged per unit), and partly a consequence of the rising cost of borrowing.

According to Bank calculations, higher rates will mean the average household has a £3,000 annual increase in their mortgage costs, more than outweighing any government help with energy bills.

Biggest hike ever voted for

The Bank’s decision to lift borrowing costs by three-quarters of a percentage point is the single biggest increase since 1989, save for a brief two percentage point increase in 1992 that lasted less than 24 hours.

It is the biggest increase ever voted for by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Seven of the nine members voted for it. One member, Swati Dhingra, voted for a 0.5 percentage point increase and another, Silvana Tenreyro, voted for a 0.25 percentage point hike.

The minutes to the MPC’s meeting inserted a note of caution to money markets which, at the time of the Bank’s forecasting round, were expecting a peak of 5.25%, saying: “The majority of the Committee judged that should the economy evolve broadly in line with the latest Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank rate might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets.”

The upshot is that notwithstanding the big increase in interest rates, back to their highest level since late 2008, the Bank is implying that they may not rise quite as far as many had expected.

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Ukraine presses Russia for 30-day ceasefire as Starmer among leaders in Kyiv for talks

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Ukraine presses Russia for 30-day ceasefire as Starmer among leaders in Kyiv for talks

Sir Keir Starmer has joined other European leaders in Kyiv to press Russia to agree an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

The prime minister is attending the summit alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine at the same time – arriving in the capital by train – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets with French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on board a train to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv where all three will hold meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, May 9, 2025. Stefan Rousseau/Pool via REUTERS
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Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kyiv. Pic: Reuters

Leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Pic: PA
Image:
Leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Pic: PA

It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.

Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.

“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”

Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP

Trump calls for ceasefire. Pic: Truth Social
Image:
Trump calls for ceasefire. Pic: Truth Social

Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine and its allies are ready for a “full, unconditional ceasefire” for at least 30 days starting on Monday.

Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement.

European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing


Dominic Waghorn - Diplomatic editor

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.

But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.

The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.

The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.

European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.

Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.

But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.

Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.

“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.

“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”

Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP

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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained

The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.

But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.

“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.

“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”

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Read more:
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.

They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

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This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

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Special constable jailed after taking pictures of dying man from bodycam footage

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Special constable jailed after taking pictures of dying man from bodycam footage

A special constable has been jailed after taking pictures on his phone from bodycam footage showing a dying man.

Former police volunteer William Heggs, 23, was sentenced to 12 months’ imprisonment at Leicester Crown Court on Friday after showing the photos of victim William Harty, 28, to a female colleague and storing them on his Snapchat account.

Mr Harty was found seriously injured in a residential street in Leicester on 25 October 2021 and Heggs had attended the scene, helping with CPR before paramedics arrived.

Mr Harty died in hospital a day later and the man responsible for his injuries, his brother-in-law Martin Casey, was subsequently convicted of his manslaughter.

Heggs showed the pictures he had taken of bodycam footage of Mr Harty’s body to a Leicestershire Police constable, who reported Heggs and said she did not like seeing blood.

His phone was seized and officers discovered other photographs and video clips of bodyworn footage of incidents Heggs had attended on duty, including of a knife seizure, use of baton and pepper spray, and a man with an injured hand receiving first aid.

He also took pictures of a police computer screen, showing details of crimes and suspects, without consent.

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Heggs stored the materials in a Snapchat folder and disclosed graphic details – most of which were not in the public domain – about the injuries to a woman who was killed in a road traffic collision he had attended, to a friend on the social media platform.

Heggs was suspended from the force in November 2021 and resigned in October 2024 before pleading guilty to 11 computer misuse and data protection offences this March.

Widow Mandy Casey. Pic: PA
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William Harty’s widow Mandy Casey. Pic: PA

‘He has traumatised me’

Mr Harty’s widow, Mandy Casey, said in a victim impact statement read to the court that Heggs “took (her) husband’s dignity when he was most vulnerable”.

“You don’t take someone’s dignity and pride from them on their deathbed.”

She continued: “When I found out special constable Heggs had done this, I just wanted to ask why. He has traumatised me. I feel I will never know if he showed them to others.”

Ms Casey said she was still scared that photos of her husband’s body might appear on social media.

She added that she had lost trust in the police.

Public trust in police ‘significantly undermined’

Judge Timothy Spencer told Heggs, who has autism and ADHD, that he was “probably too immature to be working as a police officer” as he handed down the sentence.

He said Heggs had received “extensive training”, including on the importance of data protection, and knew he should only share materials for “a genuine policing purpose”.

Heggs’s actions had “significantly undermined” public trust and confidence in police, according to the judge.

Read more from Sky News:
Man charged with murder of 87-year-old
Iranian arrested in counter-terror probe

Malcolm McHaffie, from the Crown Prosecution Service, added: “William Heggs abused the public’s trust in the office he held as a special police constable.

“He violated the dignity of the deceased victims for no apparent reason other than what could be considered personal fascination and to gain credibility among his peers.”

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Man charged with murder after 87-year-old dies following alleged robbery

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Man charged with murder after 87-year-old dies following alleged robbery

A man has been charged with the murder of an 87-year-old after an alleged robbery in north London, police say.

Peter Augustine, 58, of Hornsey, is accused of killing pensioner John Mackey in Manor House.

Augustine appeared at Willesden Magistrates’ Court on Saturday charged with murder and robbery.

He was remanded in custody to appear at the Old Bailey next week.

The Metropolitan Police said officers were called to a report of a robbery on Goodchild Road just before 6pm on Tuesday.

The London Ambulance Service attended the scene and an 87-year-old man was taken to hospital, where he died on Thursday.

The victim’s family have been informed and are being supported by specialist officers.

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Speaking at the scene on Friday, neighbour Sandra Murphy, 65, described Mr Mackey as a “beautiful, kind man”, who “would do anything for anyone”.

“He was so loved around here. No-one would have a bad word to say about John,” she said.

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