Coterra Energy ‘s (CTRA) solid third-quarter earnings beat on Thursday, along with hefty free cash flow and a raised dividend, solidified the Club’s investment case in the oil-and-gas producer. Total revenue soared by nearly 500% year-on-year, to $2.52 billion, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $2.37 billion, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted earnings per share more than doubled on an annual basis, to $1.42 a share, beating analysts’ forecasts of $1.37 a share. Note: Coterra management is set to hold its post-earnings conference call at 10 a.m. ET Friday, which we’ll monitor for any updates. Bottom line Coterra continued to return an outsized amount of free cash flow to shareholders: 74% in the third quarter, to be exact. While we’ve worked to moderate our energy exposure in recent months, our two-pronged investment rationale has not changed: 1) Hedge our portfolio against inflation as oil-and-gas prices stay higher for longer and 2) get rewarded for our patience through robust dividend payouts and stock buybacks, which are made possible by those same elevated commodity prices. Coterra hiked its fixed-plus-variable dividend payout on a sequential basis, supporting the second part of our investment thesis. The company was the only one of our three exploration-and-production holdings to do so this earnings season. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Devon Energy (DVN), by contrast, announced quarter-over-quarter declines to their payouts, due to falling oil prices in the third quarter. But Coterra’s larger natural gas exposure — a key reason we initiated our position in April — proved advantageous in the three months ended Sept. 30. U.S. natural gas prices bottomed out in early summer , before increasing for nearly two months in a row and then falling again more recently. U.S. natural gas futures closed at $6.33 per million British thermal units on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate crude — the U.S. oil benchmark — settled at $88.17 a barrel. Coterra’s stock was trading down nearly 2% in afterhours trading Thursday, at roughly $30 a share, as the market digested its third-quarter report. Cash flow Cash flow is king for companies like Coterra. Here’s how the Houston-based company did in the third quarter. Cash flow from operations expanded by more than 600% year-over-year, to $1.77 billion, roughly in line with analysts forecasts of 1.76 billion, according to FactSet. Adjusted discretionary cash flow (cash flow from operations excluding changes in assets and liabilities) was $1.52 billion, below estimates of $1.62 billion. Free cash flow , or money the business generates subtracting capital expenditures, was $1.06 billion, short of analysts’ forecasts of $1.16 billion. Capital expenditures of $460 million came in above the $450 million predicted by analysts. Based on recent commodity strip prices, Coterra management expects free cash flow for the full year to be $3.9 billion, compared with the FactSet estimate of $3.83 billion. Coterra also said its full-year capital budget is projected to be $1.7 billion, matching the high end of its prior guidance range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. Dividends and buybacks Coterra said it would pay out a fixed-plus-variable dividend of 68 cents a share, up from its prior 60 cents a share quarter-on-quarter. Based on Coterra’s Thursday closing price of $30.61, that equates to a roughly 8.9% annualized dividend yield. Half of the company’s third-quarter free cash flow is going toward the dividend, as was the case with second-quarter free cash flow. The company spent $253 million in the third quarter to repurchase 9.3 million shares at an average price of $27.03 a share. That’s equal to about 24% of free cash flow. In the second quarter, 30% of Coterra’s free cash flow went toward stock buybacks, totaling $303 million. As of Sept. 30, the company has $510 million remaining on its $1.25 billion buyback authorization. Production and Q4 outlook Total production in the quarter was 641,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the 610,000 to 630,000 barrel-a-day guidance the company issued in August and above analysts’ forecasts for production of 624,100 barrels a day. Coterra attributed its total production levels to “strong well performance and improving cycle times.” Here’s the breakdown of Coterra’s production in the third quarter: Oil: 87,900 barrels a day, ahead of a consensus forecast of 86,700 barrels a day. Natural gas: 2.8 billion cubic feet a day, slightly exceeding analysts’ forecasts of 2.77 billion cubic feet a day. For the fourth quarter, Coterra expects total production to be between 615,000 and 635,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, which at the midpoint is lower than the 632,900 barrels a day forecasted by analysts. The company also forecasts oil volumes to average between 86,000- to 89,000 barrels a day, roughly in line with estimates for 87,200 barrels a day. Natural gas volumes should average between 2.72 billion- and 2.78 billion cubic feet a day, below the 2.8 billion cubic feet a day predicted by analysts. For the full year, Coterra raised its total production guidance by 1% at the midpoint, saying it now should be between 625,000- to 640,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. At the midpoint that exceeds estimates for 630,000 barrels a day. At the same time, the company raised its forecast for natural gas production for the full year to between 2.76 billion- to 2.85 billion cubic feet a day, also up 1% at the midpoint. That compares with analysts’ forecasts of 2.8 billion cubic feet a day. Coterra’s realized prices, excluding commodity derivatives, in the third quarter were $93.35 per barrel of oil, better than the $92.7 per barrel analysts expected, and $6.37 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas, below the $6.50 analysts predicted. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CTRA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
In this photo illustration, a Coterra Energy Inc. logo is seen on a smartphone screen.
Coterra Energy‘s (CTRA) solid third-quarter earnings beat on Thursday, along with hefty free cash flow and a raised dividend, solidified the Club’s investment case in the oil-and-gas producer.
Total revenue soared by nearly 500% year-on-year, to $2.52 billion, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $2.37 billion, according to Refinitiv.
Adjusted earnings per share more than doubled on an annual basis, to $1.42 a share, beating analysts’ forecasts of $1.37 a share.
Note: Coterra management is set to hold its post-earnings conference call at 10 a.m. ET Friday, which we’ll monitor for any updates.
Bottom line
Coterra continued to return an outsized amount of free cash flow to shareholders: 74% in the third quarter, to be exact.
While we’ve worked to moderate our energy exposure in recent months, our two-pronged investment rationale has not changed: 1) Hedge our portfolio against inflation as oil-and-gas prices stay higher for longer and 2) get rewarded for our patience through robust dividend payouts and stock buybacks, which are made possible by those same elevated commodity prices.
Coterra hiked its fixed-plus-variable dividend payout on a sequential basis, supporting the second part of our investment thesis. The company was the only one of our three exploration-and-production holdings to do so this earnings season. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Devon Energy (DVN), by contrast, announced quarter-over-quarter declines to their payouts, due to falling oil prices in the third quarter.
U.S. natural gas futures closed at $6.33 per million British thermal units on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate crude — the U.S. oil benchmark — settled at $88.17 a barrel. Coterra’s stock was trading down nearly 2% in afterhours trading Thursday, at roughly $30 a share, as the market digested its third-quarter report.
Cash flow
Cash flow is king for companies like Coterra. Here’s how the Houston-based company did in the third quarter.
Cash flow from operations expanded by more than 600% year-over-year, to $1.77 billion, roughly in line with analysts forecasts of 1.76 billion, according to FactSet.
Adjusted discretionary cash flow (cash flow from operations excluding changes in assets and liabilities) was $1.52 billion, below estimates of $1.62 billion.
Free cash flow, or money the business generates subtracting capital expenditures, was $1.06 billion, short of analysts’ forecasts of $1.16 billion.
Capital expenditures of $460 million came in above the $450 million predicted by analysts.
Based on recent commodity strip prices, Coterra management expects free cash flow for the full year to be $3.9 billion, compared with the FactSet estimate of $3.83 billion.
Coterra also said its full-year capital budget is projected to be $1.7 billion, matching the high end of its prior guidance range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.
Dividends and buybacks
Coterra said it would pay out a fixed-plus-variable dividend of 68 cents a share, up from its prior 60 cents a share quarter-on-quarter. Based on Coterra’s Thursday closing price of $30.61, that equates to a roughly 8.9% annualized dividend yield. Half of the company’s third-quarter free cash flow is going toward the dividend, as was the case with second-quarter free cash flow.
The company spent $253 million in the third quarter to repurchase 9.3 million shares at an average price of $27.03 a share. That’s equal to about 24% of free cash flow. In the second quarter, 30% of Coterra’s free cash flow went toward stock buybacks, totaling $303 million. As of Sept. 30, the company has $510 million remaining on its $1.25 billion buyback authorization.
Production and Q4 outlook
Total production in the quarter was 641,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the 610,000 to 630,000 barrel-a-day guidance the company issued in August and above analysts’ forecasts for production of 624,100 barrels a day. Coterra attributed its total production levels to “strong well performance and improving cycle times.”
Here’s the breakdown of Coterra’s production in the third quarter:
Oil: 87,900 barrels a day, ahead of a consensus forecast of 86,700 barrels a day.
Natural gas: 2.8 billion cubic feet a day, slightly exceeding analysts’ forecasts of 2.77 billion cubic feet a day.
For the fourth quarter, Coterra expects total production to be between 615,000 and 635,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, which at the midpoint is lower than the 632,900 barrels a day forecasted by analysts. The company also forecasts oil volumes to average between 86,000- to 89,000 barrels a day, roughly in line with estimates for 87,200 barrels a day. Natural gas volumes should average between 2.72 billion- and 2.78 billion cubic feet a day, below the 2.8 billion cubic feet a day predicted by analysts.
For the full year, Coterra raised its total production guidance by 1% at the midpoint, saying it now should be between 625,000- to 640,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. At the midpoint that exceeds estimates for 630,000 barrels a day. At the same time, the company raised its forecast for natural gas production for the full year to between 2.76 billion- to 2.85 billion cubic feet a day, also up 1% at the midpoint. That compares with analysts’ forecasts of 2.8 billion cubic feet a day.
Coterra’s realized prices, excluding commodity derivatives, in the third quarter were $93.35 per barrel of oil, better than the $92.7 per barrel analysts expected, and $6.37 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas, below the $6.50 analysts predicted.
(Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CTRA. See here for a full list of the stocks.)
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Rad’s ‘jack-of-all-trades’ RadRunner 2 and RadRunner 3 Plus e-bikes provide utility with mobility at low prices from $999
Having begun back in February, and now continuing with Rad Power’s current Earth Day Sale running through April 23, the brand still has two of its three RadRunner series e-bikes down at the lowest prices in their history, while the RadRunner Plus model has run out of stock. Starting with the lowest priced, you can hop aboard the brand’s RadRunner 2 Utility e-bike for just $999 shipped, bringing costs down from its $1,499 post-2024 tariff pricing. Before this price cut began, things had only ever fallen as low as $1,199 before the summer of last year, with discounts following July only ever dropping to $1,299. But with this shake-up, you’ll score $500 off the going rate for as long as supplies last, gaining a versatile means to commute and run errands at the lowest price we have tracked.
Given the moniker of Rad’s “jack-of-all-trades” model, the RadRunner 2 is an affordable means to get around during commutes, joyrides, errand running, and more. I see them, and their counterparts in the series, parked outside my local grocery store frequently, as more and more folks in Brooklyn seem to be finding them as a solid alternative to owning a car. You’ll get up to 50 miles of travel here with its four PAS levels activated at up to 20 MPH top speeds with its combination of a 750W brushless gear hub motor and the 672Wh battery. Along with the simplified control panel for its riding settings, it also comes stocked with a rear-mounted cargo rack that offers a 120-pound payload, puncture-resistant fat tires, a standard LED headlight, and an integrated taillight with both brake light and flash mode capabilities.
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The upgraded RadRunner 3 Plus e-bike, meanwhile, is also still down at it’s newest all-time low of $1,699 shipped, brought down from $2,199. It sports the same 750W motor and 672Wh battery combination for achieving 45+ miles of travel through its five PAS levels at up to 20 MPH speeds. There are some notable differences here, like the Tektro hydraulic disc brakes that provide better stopping power (over the RadRunner 2’s mechanical ones), as well as a 350-pound payload (50 pounds more total), and a longer step-thru design for a more ergonomic riding position. There are also other features like puncture-resistant fat tires, fenders over both wheels, the LED headlight and brake-light capable integrated taillight (with the auto-on functionality), and LCD screen for settings.
EcoFlow’s latest flash sale gives you the multi-capable DELTA Pro 3 with four 125W solar panels at a new $2,999 low, more
As part of its ongoing Mega Sale through April 25, EcoFlow has launched the next round of its flash offers lasting through the rest of the day. The main deal here is the DELTA Pro 3 Portable Power Station bundled alongside four 125W solar panels for $2,999 shipped. Coming down off its usual $4,598 price tag, we’ve only ever seen discounts take it down as low as $3,199 before today. For the rest of the day, you can take advantage of this lower-than-ever pricing to score one of the brand’s newer solar generator packages at a 35% markdown, giving you $1,599 in savings at a new all-time low price. It even beats out Amazon, where it still sits $300 higher.
One of the brand’s newer models that has been quite popular since releasing back in June, the EcoFlow DELTA Pro 3 starts off with an already impressive 4,096Wh LiFePO4 battery capacity with a steady 4,000W of power output that surges up to 6,000W. It comes with some equally impressive expansion capabilities up to 48,000Wh with additional equipment, with its output also expanding up to 12,000W when three of these power stations are connected together, covering major home backup needs. Among the many units under the brand’s flag, this one offers the widest amount of ways to recharge its own battery, with seven solo options and 18 combination options. A standard wall outlet will have it back at an 80% battery in 50 minutes, while also offering other options like solar charging (with a max 2,600W input), EV, automotive auxiliary outlets, dual PV charging, and much more.
It’s been given 14 output ports, divided up amongst seven ACs, two USB-As, two USB-Cs, and three DCs, and offers up the complete array of smart controls accessed through the companion app to monitor and adjust settings as it keeps your devices and appliances running. It was the first unit to be given the latest X-Core 3.0 tech, expanding its surging capabilities and charging speeds while also running at quieter decibels and cooler temperatures, as well as improving upon the battery and smart home management, providing “explosion-proof” battery packs, and upgrading its parallel capacity expansion performance.
The second of today’s flash savings gives you the brand’s 800W Alternator Charger at $349 shipped, coming down from its regular $399 pricing during this sale and its full $599 rate. With this device, you’ll be able to recharge any power station you have via your car’s alternator, juicing the battery back up while on the move – which makes a perfect companion for those who may be taking their setups on the road.
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A lawsuit alleging that Tesla is inflating mileage to avoid warranty claims is already being compared to Dieselgate and referred to as ‘Tesla Odometergate.’
Is Tesla having its own Dieselgate, or is it a nothing burger?
A new class action lawsuit filed in California against Tesla alleges that the automaker is using “predictive algorithms” to inflate mileage at the odometers, allowing Tesla to claim higher mileage past warranty limits.
Lawyers for the plaintiff wrote in the lawsuit:
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Rather than relying on mechanical or electronic systems to measure distance, Plaintiff alleges on information and belief that Tesla Inc. employs an odometer system that utilizes predictive algorithms, energy consumption metrics, and driver behavior multipliers that manipulate and misrepresent the actual mileage travelled by Tesla Vehicles. In so doing, Defendants can, and do, accelerate the rate of depreciation of the value of Tesla Vehicles and also the expiration of Tesla Vehicle warranties to reduce or avoid responsibility for contractually required repairs as well as increase the purchase of its extended warranty policy.
The lawsuit refers to patents filed by Tesla regarding its mileage counter, but it primarily relies on the experience of its lead plaintiff.
Nyree Hinton, a data professional from Los Angeles, is the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit and shared his own experience that led to making these allegations.
In December 2022, Hinton purchased a used 2020 Tesla Model Y with 36,772 miles on the odometer. He received Tesla’s Basic Vehicle Limited Warranty, which covers repairs for four years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first.
Shortly after, Hinton noticed that his vehicle’s mileage increased at an unexpected rate. Despite driving approximately 20 miles per day, based on his own estimate, the odometer indicated an average of over 72 miles per day. This rapid mileage accumulation led to the warranty expiring sooner than anticipated, resulting in Hinton incurring a $10,000 suspension repair bill that he believed should have been covered under the warranty otherwise.
Other than Hinton’s experience, the lawsuit is light on data, but it does cite other Tesla owners claiming to have similar experiences on forums and social media.
Here’s the full lawsuit:
Tesla’s own Dieselgate or a nothing burger
If the allegations in this lawsuit are factual, it would indeed be a significant scandal. However, it is light on proof.
Hinton appears to have closely tracked his own experience, and he has some credibility as a data analyst. We have no reason not to believe him, but the case would need a lot more evidence to move forward.
Electrek reached out to ‘Green’, a well-known Tesla hacker who frequently discovers new features and specifications in Tesla’s software and firmware.
He told us that he doubts Tesla would have been able to hide something like that from him and the broader whitehat hacking community, but he admits they weren’t looking for it.
Green believes that it is likely that Tesla uses predictive algorithms for its odometer, but it could be as simple as accounting for tire wear, since tire rotation is used to calculate odometer mileage.
Odometers are not perfect, and there can be some discrepancies, but the one described by the lead plaintiff in this case is undoubtedly higher than what would be expected or allowed.
Electrek’s Take
I think it’s too light on data and proof right now to make a big deal out of this. I have no reason not to believe Hinton, but it could also be a specific problem with his vehicle rather than a broader issue and active deception from Tesla.
If the lawsuit is allowed to proceed, we may gain more insight, and it could encourage others with similar experiences to join in – resulting in more data.
In the meantime, I’ll remain in the skeptical camp on this one.
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Tesla’s brand damage is eroding the value of used Tesla vehicles at a rapid rate, as owners rush to sell theirs.
It is breaking the used Tesla market as prices are plunging just as the broader used car market is recovering.
After a few tough years for the used car market following the pandemic, it is finally starting to recover over the last month.
Economic uncertainty and a fear of higher inflation due to Trump’s tariffs are prompting some buyers to shift from the new car market to the used car market.
According to Car Guru‘s used car index, used car prices have risen an impressive 2.17% in the last 30 days alone.
However, there’s an exception: Tesla.
The price of used Tesla vehicles has been falling, like the rest of the used car market, since the pandemic; however, it is not benefiting from the reversal in the current macroeconomic situation.
While average used car prices rose more than 2% in the last 30 days, Tesla’s used car prices decreased by 1.34% in the US.
That’s due to oversupply, as many Tesla owners are selling their vehicles to distance themselves from the Tesla brand, which is associated with CEO Elon Musk and his increasingly divisive political views.
The demand to sell used Tesla vehicles is so high that many used car dealers, who had been fighting to acquire inventory just a year prior, are starting to be reticent about buying Tesla vehicles as the value decreases so rapidly.
In Quebec, Le Journal de Montréal spoke with local used car dealers and attended a car auction where many Tesla vehicles were up for sale, with some selling for half the price they were selling for just over a year ago.
Éric Piuze, owner of a used car dealership on Montreal’s South Shore, said (translated from French):
“People don’t want them anymore. The Elon Musk effect is very real in Quebec.”
The used car dealers at the auction noted that they are not confident they can sell the used Tesla quickly enough to avoid further value decreases.
Furthermore, they note that potential buyers are lowballing on Tesla vehicles because they are aware that inventory is high, creating a buyer’s market.
Dealers are also seeing higher defaults on Tesla car payments, as buyers who took on debt to purchase them just a few years ago struggle to make payments.
Piuze added (translated from French):
People paid a lot of money for Teslas. During the pandemic, we saw many people remortgaging their homes to buy a Tesla. Those days are over.
At its peak, the average used Tesla price was over $60,000 in 2022. Now, the same vehicles are worth a fraction, but their car payments are still high.
Electrek’s Take
Even with the used car market finally getting a breather from crashing prices, Tesla vehicles are not benefiting at all. This highlights a significant issue in the used Tesla market. It’s broken.
The market can’t absorb the surge in people selling their Tesla vehicles.
I wouldn’t want to be a company holding a fleet of Tesla vehicles right now. The value erosion is impressive.
I thought that maybe the Cybertruck was dragging the entire Tesla market down, with a 6.64% decrease in used value over the last 30 days. However, the Model Y alone saw a 1.67% decrease during the same period.
The good news is that the vast majority of people selling their used Tesla vehicles are purchasing other electric vehicles, thereby boosting the EV market. It’s also giving people the chance to get into Tesla vehicles for cheaper, although they should expect the value of those vehicles to decrease rapidly.
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