Economy is almost certainly in recession and the picture ahead is murky

Published

3 years ago

November 5, 2022

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Let’s start with what we do know.

The economy is now almost certainly in recession. It will not be pleasant. This is a recession which will be felt in most households’ pockets – both through the rise in energy prices and shop prices and the rise in the cost of borrowing.

And when it comes to the cost of borrowing, things are certainly getting tougher. Today the Bank of England raised its official interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, meaning if you’re on a floating rate loan tied to Bank rate the increase will be immediately reflected in your monthly repayments.

In a sense, the Bank is merely doing what most people had expected and what markets had already priced in: in other words, the current fixed rate loans out there on the market already assumed something like this happening.

Remember that point: we’ll come back to it.

So we know the economy is in recession. We know prices are very high and times are looking tough – especially if you have a mortgage which needs to be re-fixed soon. But here’s where the certainty ends and the murkiness begins.

Normally the Bank of England produces one main forecast in its Monetary Policy Report – the quarterly document in which it gives its sense of the state of the economy. But this time around it did something unusual: it produced two, and gave quite a lot of prominence to both of them.

A money market rollercoaster

Why? Well, it comes back to the fact that money markets have been on a rollercoaster recently. As you’ll recall if you’ve followed the ride, in the wake of the mini-budget, expectations for where the Bank’s interest rate was going next year leapt up to over 6%. Since Liz Truss‘s exit, those expected rates have begun to fall, to the extent that as of this week they were expecting a peak of 4.75%. That’s a big change.

And these numbers matter enormously: the higher the rates, the more households who will struggle to make their repayments and the tougher life will get for businesses, many of which will struggle to operate. So even a change of a few fractions of a percentage point will make a big difference.

Eight successive quarters of contraction

That brings us back to the Bank’s latest forecasts. It has to base those forecasts for the state of the economy off an assumption of what’s happening to those interest rates. So it typically takes a two week “snapshot” of what money markets expect for borrowing rates and then builds a forecast around it.

Normally that’s a pretty uncontroversial exercise, but not this time. Because as we all know, those rates were all over the place following the mini-budget and the ensuing gilt market meltdown.

The upshot is that the Bank’s central forecast – the one we usually look at – is particularly bad.

It involves eight successive quarters of contraction: that would be the single longest recession since comparable records began in the early 20th century – though it would be much less deep than nearly all of those downturns. It would see the economy shrink by nearly 3% and unemployment get up to 6.5%.

But here’s the thing: that forecast is based on market expectations that Bank rate would get up to 5.25% next year. And the Bank is unusually explicit today that it thinks that is very unlikely. So that recession forecast is a little bit of a chimera: it is based on a scenario which will probably not happen.

So here’s where that other forecast comes in.

The Bank produced a separate set of figures which ignore all that market mayhem and just imagine rates stay where they are, as of this afternoon, at 3% in perpetuity.

On the basis of that forecast, there is still a recession, but it is barely more than half the depth of its central forecast and doesn’t last half as long. Unemployment doesn’t peak as high. Household income isn’t quite as badly hit. It’s tough, but not awful.

More rate rises

So: is that forecast a more reliable picture of the impending months? Well, not necessarily, for two reasons.

First, the Bank said explicitly today that it thinks it will have to raise interest rates again, albeit not as high as markets were expecting a few weeks ago.

What that means is anyone’s guess, but the signal is that they might not even have to rise as high as the 4.75% markets are currently pricing in. But that does mean a slightly worse outlook.

Second, the Bank’s forecast doesn’t make any assumptions about what the government’s Autumn Statement is going to do to the economy. And given everyone expects the government to cut spending and/or raise taxes, it’s a fair assumption that that could also bear down on economic activity.

It’s complicated

So, as you can see: it’s complicated. I know that’s not especially helpful if you’re after a quick summary. But it’s a fairer reflection of where we are.

The UK is in recession, but it’s worth being a little wary of the more lurid headlines out there about how it’s the “longest in history”. The Bank is saying that’s a possibility if rates went higher (and it doesn’t currently think they will).

But there is another interesting thing going on here, which comes back to that point I made at the start – that when the Bank moves its rates it is, in a sense, reflecting what people out there in the market are expecting it to do. Those expectations matter – and the Bank can often influence them itself.

Today’s Monetary Policy Report contains some pretty heavy hints that the market has overshot its expectations about where Bank rate will go in the future. In other words, the report itself could plausibly persuade investors to notch down their expectations for where interest rates are heading next year.

If that happened, we would be left with an interesting paradox: that even as it raises interest rates even more than it has ever done since it became independent in 1997, the Bank could actually push down what markets expect that eventual peak to be.

In other words, this interest rate increase could be reducing the real-life cost of borrowing in the mortgage markets. Fixed rate loans could get cheaper as a result of today’s events, not more expensive.

Perhaps that sounds topsy-turvy, but then it’s no more weird than many of the other turns of this rollercoaster in recent weeks.

Business

It’s now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

Published

7 hours ago

October 8, 2025

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It's now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

Britain’s wealth gap is growing and it’s now practically impossible for a typical worker to save enough to become rich, according to a report.

Analysis by The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, found it would take average earners 52 years to accrue savings that would take them from the middle to the top of wealth distribution.

The total needed would be around £1.3m, and assumes they save almost all of their income.

Wealth gaps are “entrenched”, it said, meaning who your parents are – and what assets they may have – is becoming more important to your living standards than how hard you work.

While the UK’s wealth has “expanded dramatically over recent decades”, it’s been mainly fuelled by periods of low interest rates and increases in asset worth – not wage growth or buying new property.

Citing figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Wealth And Assets Survey, the think tank found household wealth reached £17trn in 2020-22, with £5.5trn (32%) held in property and £8.2trn (48%) in pensions.

The report said: “As a result, Britain’s wealth reached a new peak of nearly 7.5 times GDP by 2020-22, up from around three times GDP in the mid-1980s.

“Yet, despite this remarkable increase in the overall stock of wealth, relative wealth inequality – measured by the share of wealth held by the richest households – has remained broadly stable since the 1980s, with the richest tenth of households consistently owning around half of all wealth.”

According to the think tank, this trend has worsened intergenerational inequality.

It said the wealth gap between people in their early 30s and people in their early 60s has more than doubled between 2006-08 and 2020-22 – from £135,000 to £310,000, in real cash terms.

Regional inequality remains an issue, with median average wealth per adult higher in London and the South East.

Could wealth tax be the answer?

The report comes seven weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, having batted away calls earlier this year for a wealth tax.

Former Labour leader Lord Kinnock is among those to have called for one, in an interview with Sky News.

But speaking to Bloomberg last month, Ms Reeves said: “We already have taxes on wealthy people – I don’t think we need a standalone wealth tax.”

Previous government policies targeting Britain’s richest, notably a move to grab billions from non-doms, has led to concerns about an exodus of wealth. The prime minister has denied too many are leaving the capital.

Molly Broome, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said any wealth taxes would not just be paid by the country’s richest citizens.

She said: “With property and pensions now representing 80% of the growing bulk of household wealth, we need to be honest that higher wealth taxes are likely to fall on pensioners, southern homeowners or their families, rather than just being paid by the super-rich.”

Business

Millions of people could each get hundreds of pounds in compensation over car loan mis-selling

Published

7 hours ago

October 8, 2025

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Millions of people could each get hundreds of pounds in compensation over car loan mis-selling

Up to 14.2 million people could each receive an average of £700 in compensation due to car loan mis-selling, the financial services regulator has said.

Nearly half (44%) of all car loan agreements made between April 2007 and November 2024 could be eligible for payouts, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said.

Those eligible for the compensation will have had a loan where the broker received commission from a lender.

Lenders broke the law by not sharing this fact with consumers, the FCA said, and customers lost out on better deals and sometimes paid more.

A scheme is seen by the FCA as the best outcome for consumers and lenders, as it avoids the courts and the Financial Ombudsman Service, therefore minimising delay, uncertainty and administration costs.

The scheme will be funded by the dozens of lenders involved in the loans, and cost about £8.2bn, on the lower end of expectations, which had been expected to reach as much as £18bn.

The figure was reached by estimating that 85% of eligible applicants will take part in the scheme.

What if you think you’re eligible?

Anyone who believes they have been impacted should contact their lender and has a year to do so. Compensation will begin to be paid in 2026, with an exact timeline yet to be worked out.

The FCA said it would move “as quickly as we can”.

People who have already complained do not need to take action. Complaints about approximately four million loan agreements have already been received.

There’s no need to contact a solicitor or claims management firm, the FCA said, as it aimed for the scheme to be as easy as possible.

A lender won’t have to pay, however, if it can prove the customer could not have got cover anywhere else.

The number of people who will get a payout is not known. While there are 14.2 million agreements identified by the FCA, the same person may have taken out more than one loan over the 17-year period.

More expensive car loans?

Despite the fact many lenders have to contribute to redress, the FCA said the market will continue to function and pointed out the sector has grown in recent years and months.

In delivering compensation quickly, the FCA said it “can ensure that some of the trust and confidence in the market can be repaired”.

It could not, however, rule out that the scheme could mean fewer offers and more expensive car loans, but failure to introduce a scheme would have been worse.

The FCA said: “We cannot rule out some modest impacts on product availability and prices, we estimate the cost of dealing with complaints would be several billion pounds higher in the absence of a redress scheme.

“In that scenario, impacts on access to motor finance and prices for consumers could be significantly higher with uncertainty continuing for many more years.”

Business

Starmer refuses to rule out tax rises as he flies business leaders to India

Published

7 hours ago

October 8, 2025

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Starmer refuses to rule out tax rises as he flies business leaders to India

Sir Keir Starmer has begun the first full-blown trade mission to India since Theresa May was prime minister, bringing 125 UK CEOs, entrepreneurs and university leaders to Mumbai.

The prime minister flew on a plane with dozens of Britain’s most prominent business people, including bosses from BA, Barclays, Standard Chartered, BT and Rolls-Royce, for the two-day trip designed to boost ties between the two countries.

Starmer will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday, five months after the UK signed the first trade deal with India since Brexit.

The agreement has yet to be implemented, with controversial plans to waive national insurance for workers employed by big Indian businesses sent to the UK still the subject of a forthcoming consultation.

Speaking to journalists on the plane on the way out, the prime minister said he was determined to boost ties between the two countries.

The trip has been arranged to coincide with the Conservative Party conference, with the first day of meetings coinciding with Kemi Badenoch’s speech to activists in Manchester.

Politics latest – Badenoch: ‘Robert Jenrick is not the leader of the Conservative Party’

However, the business delegation is likely to use the trip to lobby the prime minister not to put more taxes on them in the November budget.

Sir Keir has already turned down the wish of some of the CEOs on the trip to increase the number of visas.

“The visa situation hasn’t changed with the free trade agreement, and therefore we didn’t open up more visas,” he said.

He told business that it wasn’t right to focus on visas, telling them: “The issue is not about visas. It’s about business-to-business engagement and investment and jobs and prosperity coming into the United Kingdom.”

The prime minister sidestepped questions about Mr Modi’s support of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, whom he wished happy birthday on social media. US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs against India, alleging that Indian purchases of Russian oil are supporting the war in Ukraine.

Asked about Mr Modi wishing Mr Putin happy birthday, and whether he had leverage to talk to Mr Modi about his relationship with Russia, Sir Keir sidestepped the question.

“Just for the record, I haven’t… sent birthday congratulations to Putin, nor am I going to do so,” he said. “I don’t suppose that comes as a surprise. In relation to energy, and clamping down on Russian energy, our focus as the UK, and we’ve been leading on this, is on the shadow fleet, because we think that’s the most effective way. We’ve been one of the lead countries in relation to the shadow fleet, working with other countries.”

Sir Keir refused to give business leaders any comfort about the budget and tax hikes, despite saying in his conference speech he recognised the last budget had an impact.

“What I acknowledged in my conference and I’ve acknowledged a number of times now, is we asked a lot of business in the last budget. It’s important that I acknowledge that, and I also said that that had helped us with growth and stabilising the economy,” he added. “I’m not going to make any comment about the forthcoming budget, as you would expect; no prime minister or chancellor ever does.”

Asked if too many wealthy people were leaving London, he said: “No. We keep a careful eye on the figures, as you would expect.

“The measures that we took at the last budget are bringing a considerable amount of revenue into the government which is being used to fix things like the NHS. We keep a careful eye on the figures.”