America’s midterms don’t normally grip us. Wake us up when you choose another president.
But these should, and for all the wrong reasons. Anyone who has covered a few of them knows they are very different this year.
The mood is dark in America. There is a sense of dread about the future. And if Americans are fearful, we should be too. The reverse Vegas rule applies here. What happens in America does not stay in America.
Those who thought the Donald Trump years were an aberration are in for a shock. Look at the candidates.
Almost 300 were endorsed by Mr Trump. Two-hundred of them have peddled his anti-democratic lie that he won the last election or its results were seriously flawed.
Some are Q Anon supporters to boot, subscribing to a movement that believes a cabal of paedophiles runs the US government.
Donald Trump is expected to declare his candidacy soon after these midterms. Looking at the polls, his second coming looks increasingly likely, with all that means for the world that we live in.
More on Us Midterms 2022
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An atmosphere of fear
The atmosphere out on the campaign trail is one of fear, among voters who tell you this great country, an ally, and inspiration for all the free world is, to put it bluntly, on the brink.
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It’s not just the fear of the other side winning. It is more powerful, more visceral than that.
Democrats are terrified that US democracy is about to be subverted. People who claim the electoral system is rigged are running for key positions that will give them power over that system. And Democrats fear they’ll use that power next time to twist votes in their favour.
A president who we now know seriously considered seizing voting machines and tried to bully officials to overturn the outcome of a free and fair election may be the frontrunner to win back the White House next time.
Think about that.
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2:53
Could the ‘red wave’ hit New York?
America tearing itself apart
If he fails to do so fairly next time he will now have allies in place as governors or state officials who could help him do so in other ways, should they win as seems likely in this week’s votes.
But Republican voters are equally passionate in their fear the country is being taken in the wrong direction by elites that are unaware how much the ordinary American is hurting.
Voters of all stripes fear recession, inflation, crime and rising costs, and see a government not doing enough to help.
But the fear is more existential than that. America, the country and idea, voters will tell you, is under threat and tearing itself apart.
Americans have stopped doing what they have always done best, talking to themselves and listening. They have retreated to opposing camps, losing themselves in echo chambers on the left and right.
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8:20
How a lie consumed a nation
‘It’s on the brink of disaster’
One mother in a town in New York state summed it up like this: “It’s divided and angry and hostile and corrupt, and it’s on the brink of disaster, I think.
“I think it’s incredibly discouraging. People believe what they want to believe and there’s no changing minds, and I don’t know how we’ll ever turn back from it either.”
She was no conspiracy theorist, just a middle class mother picking up pizza for her children.
Visit the US nowadays, and friends will tell you they believe violence or unrest is on its way.
Sober minded reasonable people talk in all honesty of a reckoning, unrest and even civil war.
In better days, the midterm elections were a carnival of democracy.
From the highest governor down to the town dog catcher, the people get to choose who runs their lives in a system they’ve been told since childhood is the best form of government the world has ever known.
But there is no sense of celebration this time.
The mood has soured. Entrenched in polarised corners, Americans are suspicious of each other’s intentions and full of foreboding about what comes next. That should have all of us worried.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier is steaming towards the Caribbean supported by the rest of its “carrier group” to add even more muscle to the US forces already threateningly close to Venezuela.
The question is simple – is this really all about President Trump‘s war on drugs in South America?
I doubt it. A sledgehammer to crack a nut isn’t even in it.
There are a few reasons to doubt the American government’s stated aim of wiping out these so-called “narco terrorist” gangs threatening the US from Venezuela, even after one takes out of the equation the sort of equipment the military is deploying – which isn’t what they would need for effective drug smuggling interdiction.
While the president acknowledges that the synthetic opioid fentanyl is a huge killer in the US (which it is) and is supplied by drug gangs (which it is), to blame Venezuela for fentanyl production is simply incorrect.
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Is Trump tackling cartels or trying to ‘control’ Venezuela?
Mexican cartels produce fentanyl with precursors largely supplied from China, and it is from Mexico – America’s neighbour – that the fentanyl is smuggled directly into the United States across its southern border.
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The Mexican cartels are very proud of their business, and from my experience covering this story over the years, when the drugs cartels are proud of something, and it makes them a lot of money – which fentanyl does – they don’t share the market with anyone, and certainly not with Venezuela.
President Trump is right that Venezuela is now a large supplier of other illegal drugs, especially cocaine, but they come from countries like Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, which are the largest producers of the coca leaf in the world (the coca leaf is what cocaine is made from).
Image: The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford. Pic: Reuters
Venezuela, which borders Colombia, is largely a transit country to the Caribbean in the same way that Ecuador, which also borders Colombia, is a transit country to the Pacific.
Image: Sailors work on a Venezuelan Navy patrol boat off the Caribbean coast. Pic: Reuters
Neither Venezuela nor Ecuador are significant drug producers.
The drugs enter Venezuela overland, primarily from Colombia, and then mainly leave the country from ports on the northern coast of the country – and these are the departure points of the boats the US government has recently targeted and destroyed, along with the crews on board.
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Hegseth: US forces strike ‘narco-terrorists’
President Trump claims these boats from Venezuela are heading to the United States, but in reality they are mainly heading to the nearby islands of Trinidad and Tobago, and from there they largely go to West Africa and Europe – mostly Spain and Portugal.
Drugs heading to America either pass through Mexico over the border into the US or are transported via the Pacific Ocean route through countries like Ecuador. In this instance, Venezuela isn’t involved.
It’s widely accepted the two most exported drugs from South America are cocaine and marijuana – and the volume of production is staggering.
But the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US says that synthetic opioids like fentanyl are responsible for most overdose deaths there – and fentanyl is not produced in South America, whatever the president says.
So one can only conclude he is either mistaken and misinformed, or he has another motive. I suspect it is the latter, and that regime change in Venezuela is top of the list.
The US has announced it is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America as it ramps up an operation to target alleged drug smuggling boats.
The Pentagon said in a statement that the USS Gerald R Ford would be deployed to the region, including the Caribbean Sea, to “bolster US capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity of the United States homeland and our security in the Western Hemisphere”.
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro told state media that the US was “inventing a new eternal war”.
The vessel is the US Navy’s largest aircraft carrier. It is currently deployed in the Mediterranean alongside three destroyers, and the group are expected to take around one week to make the journey.
There are already eight US Navy ships in the central and South American region, along with a nuclear-powered submarine, adding up to about 6,000 sailors and marines, according to officials.
It came as the US secretary of war claimed that six “narco-terrorists” had been killed in a strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat in the Caribbean Sea overnight.
Image: A still from footage purporting to show the boat seconds before the airstrike, posted by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on X
Pete Hegseth said his military had bombed a vessel which he claimed was operated by Tren de Aragua – a Venezuelan gang that was designated a terror group by Washington in February.
Writing on X, he claimed that the boat was involved in “illicit narcotics smuggling” and was transiting along a “known narco-trafficking route” when it was struck during the night.
All six men on board the boat, which was in international waters, were killed and no US forces were harmed, he said.
Ten vessels have now been bombed in recent weeks, killing more than 40 people.
Mr Hegseth added: “If you are a narco-terrorist smuggling drugs in our hemisphere, we will treat you like we treat al Qaeda. Day or NIGHT, we will map your networks, track your people, hunt you down, and kill you.”
While he did not provide any evidence that the vessel was carrying drugs, he did share a 20-second video that appeared to show a boat being hit by a projectile before exploding.
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Footage of a previous US strike on a suspected drugs boat earlier this week
Speaking during a White House news conference last week, Donald Trump argued that the campaign would help tackle the US’s opioid crisis.
“Every boat that we knock out, we save 25,000 American lives. So every time you see a boat, and you feel badly you say, ‘Wow, that’s rough’. It is rough, but if you lose three people and save 25,000 people,” he said.
It’s a question that’s got more relevant – and more urgent – over the last 24 hours.
The US government has just deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier and its associated battleships to the Caribbean, just off the coast of Venezuela.
So: what’s going on?
Well, on the face of it, it’s a drugs war. For weeks now, the Trump administration has been using the US military to “dismantle transnational criminal organisations and counter narco terrorism in the defence of the homeland”.
Basically: stopping the drugs supply into America.
Dealing with the demand might actually be more effective as a strategy, but that’s another story.
Donald Trump’s focus is to hit the supply countries and to hit them hard – and this is what that has looked like: drones and missiles taking out boats said to be carrying drugs from places like Venezuela into the US.
We can’t know for sure that these are drugs boats or if the people are guilty of anything, because the US government won’t tell us who the people are.
But alongside this, something bigger has been going on: a massive build-up of US troops in the Caribbean, over 6,000 sailors and marines are there.
Here’s the thing: an aircraft carrier is not remotely suited to stopping drug smuggling.
However, it is a vital element of any planned ground or air war.
Trump is focused on stopping the drugs, yes, but is there actually a wider objective here: regime change?
He has been clear in his belief in spheres of influence around the world – and his will and want to control and dominate the Western hemisphere.
Influence domination over Venezuela could fix the drug problem for sure, but much more too.
The world’s largest oil reserves? Yes, they’re in Venezuela.
On Thursday, appearing at a press conference with Mr Hegseth, Mr Trump said that it was necessary to kill the alleged smugglers, because if they were arrested they would only return to transport drugs “again and again and again”.
“They don’t fear that, they have no fear,” he told reporters.
The attacks at sea would soon be followed by operations on land against drug smuggling cartels, Mr Trump claimed.
“We’re going to kill them,” he added. “They’re going to be, like, dead.”
Some Democratic politicians have expressed concerns that the strikes risk dragging the US into a war with Venezuela because of their proximity to the South American country’s coast.
Others have condemned the attacks as extrajudicial killings that would not stand up in a court of law.
Jim Himes, a member of the House of Representatives, told CBS News earlier this month: “They are illegal killings because the notion that the United States – and this is what the administration says is their justification – is involved in an armed conflict with any drug dealers, any Venezuelan drug dealers, is ludicrous.”
He claimed that Congress had been told “nothing” about who was on the boats and how they were identified as a threat.
A convicted child killer executed in Tennessee showed signs of “sustained cardiac activity” two minutes after he was pronounced dead, his lawyer has claimed.
Byron Black, who shot dead his girlfriend Angela Clay and her two daughters, aged six and nine, in a jealous rage in 1988, was executed in August by a lethal injection.
Alleged issues about his case were raised on Friday as part of a lawsuit challenging the US state‘s lethal injection policies, amid claims they violate both federal and state constitutional bans on cruel and unusual punishment.
The latest proceedings in Nashville were held to consider whether attorneys representing death row inmates in the lawsuit will be allowed to depose key people involved in carrying out executions in Tennessee.
There were fears that the device would shock his heart when the lethal chemicals took effect.
The Death Penalty Information Center, which provides data on such matters, said it was unaware of any similar cases.
Seven media witnesses said Black appeared to be in discomfort during the execution. He looked around the room as the execution began, and could be heard sighing and breathing heavily, the AP news agency reported at the time.
An electrocardiogram monitoring his heart recorded cardiac activity after he was pronounced dead, his lawyer Kelley Henry told a judge on Friday.
Ms Henry, who is leading a group of federal public defenders representing death row inmates in the US state, said only the people who were there would be able to answer the question of what went wrong during Black’s execution.
“At one point, the blanket was pulled down to expose the IV,” she told the court.
“Why? Did the IV come out? Is that the reason that Mr Black exclaimed ‘it’s hurting so bad’? Is the EKG (electrocardiogram) correct?”
A full trial in the case is scheduled to be heard in April.