Rishi Sunak may yet find himself asking what Sir Gavin Williamson would have done between now and Christmas, as he faces an unenviable uphill struggle to manage his party.
While the prime minister presented himself as a fresh start when he entered Number 10 two weeks ago, the fissures, fury and fire inside the Conservative party have only partially calmed. This may yet change given the scale of the challenge ahead.
Here are five of them…
The Autumn Statement
The storm clouds are gathering. A revolt is brewing on tax. The Conservative membership refused to put Mr Sunak in Downing Street over the summer – in part – because as chancellor he took Britain to a 70-year high. Mr Sunak has subsequently been installed without consulting them.
On Thursday evening, Iain Duncan Smith told Sky News that “it will be of deep concern if we go over the top on tax rises because it’s absolutely a fact of life that tax rises will make the recession deeper”.
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He thinks the size of the black hole, which he stresses is based on forecasts (which can be wrong), may be smaller than expected particularly if energy costs drop. Newspapers have speculated on tax rises on every front, from income to inheritance tax. When the latter was floated at the weekend, one Tory MP told me: “You do have to ask what is the point of a Tory government anymore.”
A quickie Brexit deal on Northern Ireland
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This is a sleeper cell issue that could cause untold pain to Mr Sunak’s premiership if he gets it wrong. Some MPs believe there is a chance of a deal within weeks to overhaul the Northern Ireland Protocol – the agreement between the UK and EU preserves both the integrity of the EU single market as well as the lack of a hard border on the island of Ireland.
US President Joe Biden has suggested a deadline for a deal is the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement next April, and he is personally keen to resolve what he regards as a long-running sore. In his opening fortnight, Mr Sunak has made a huge effort to repair relations with the French and US presidents.
He was not an instinctive hardliner in EU Brexit discussions in Boris Johnson’s government. You can see the political attraction of a deal for Mr Sunak. But again, beware the hard Brexiteers. They – and some in the Unionist community in Northern Ireland – fear what will emerge is an expedient deal to reduce checks which still leaves this part of the UK subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
But if this happens, what happens to Suella Braverman, the home secretary, Chris Heaton Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary and Steve Baker, a Northern Ireland minister, and the chance of a revolt on his right flank?
Mr Duncan Smith told Sky News that the EU was not in a position to do a decent deal with the UK, and Mr Sunak should wait until after controversial legislation giving the UK the unilateral ability to disapply the protocol is in place. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss never successfully took on the ERG wing of the Tory party: will Mr Sunak be different?
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Analysis: ‘PM wasn’t as on form’
The trial of Boris Johnson
Forget “I’m A Celebrity”, the reality TV drama of late autumn could be the Privileges Committee inquiry into Mr Johnson over whether statements by the ex-PM during partygate “appear to amount to misleading the House”.
Although not formally confirmed, the plan has been to televise parts of the hearings – in effect to allow viewers to watch the evidence themselves in the hope that they reach the same conclusion as the panel of MPs chaired by Harriet Harman.
This has been plenty of potential to upend Mr Sunak’s administration. The PM’s spokesman said this week that this government “takes our responsibilities to assist the committee seriously” – a far cry from the approach taken when Ms Truss was in power.
Expect diaries, WhatsApp messages that have survived, and testimony all to be shared. Will Boris Johnson-supporting MPs be relaxed about the active decision by the Mr Sunak government to be complicit in the investigation?
Or will those who transferred their allegiance from Mr Johnson to Ms Truss – and now find themselves in the wilderness – allow themselves to become riled up at events?
As this parliament enters the twilight years, Mr Sunak cannot avoid multiple potentially bruising electoral tests. The first couple were in seats that elected Labour MPs last time around: on 1 December the City of Chester goes to the polls in a by-election to find a successor to Christian Matheson, who resigned after sexual misconduct allegations which he denied.
There will also be a by-election in Stretford and Urmston to find a replacement for Kate Green, the Labour MP who is stepping down to become deputy mayor of Manchester. But this will be little sweat for Mr Sunak since Labour will be expected to win. But then the party could be facing the self-inflicted wound generated by peerages for two Mr Johnson allies in his resignation honours list could cause by-elections.
Image: RIshi Sunak gets hectored by Sir Keir Starmer over Sir Gavin Williamson’s resignation at PMQs
Nadine Dorries, the mid-Bedfordshire MP with a 24,664 majority and Nigel Adams, the Selby and Ainsty MP which has a 20,137 majority could both trigger much more problematic elections. The margin of Tory victory in 2019 in both was considerable: but that means losses in these two very different parts of the county will be cataclysmic.
Rishi Sunak, Paul Dacre and The Blob
This is niche – but high impact. Ex-Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre is tipped to feature on Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list for a peerage. This would come despite the recommendation of House of Lords appointments committee, which reportedly rejected his nomination earlier in the year.
However, it would be for Mr Sunak to ultimately push through Mr Johnson’s recommendation against what Mr Dacre himself might term “the blob”. Would he risk the likely criticism for handing a peerage in the face of the rejection by the official committee, or would he risk the wrath of the Daily Mail by refusing?
The IDF has admitted to mistakenly identifying a convoy of aid workers as a threat – following the emergence of a video which proved their ambulances were clearly marked when Israeli troops opened fire on them.
The bodies of 15 aid workers – including eight medics working for the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) – were found in a “mass grave” after the incident, according to the head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Jonathan Whittall.
The Israeli military originally claimed an investigation found the vehicles did not have any headlights or emergency signals and were therefore targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
But video footage obtained by the PRCS, and verified by Sky News, showed the ambulances and a fire vehicle clearly marked with flashing red lights.
In a briefing from the IDF, they said the ambulances arrived in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah shortly after a Hamas police vehicle drove through.
Image: Palestinians mourning the medics after their bodies were recovered. Pic: Reuters
An IDF surveillance aircraft was watching the movement of the ambulances and notified troops on the ground. The IDF said it will not be releasing that footage.
When the ambulances arrived, the soldiers opened fire, thinking the medics were a threat, according to the IDF.
The soldiers were surprised by the convoy stopping on the road and several people getting out quickly and running, the IDF claimed, adding the soldiers were unaware the suspects were in fact unarmed medics.
An Israeli military official would not say how far away troops were when they fired on the vehicles.
The IDF acknowledged that its statement claiming that the ambulances had their lights off was incorrect, and was based on the testimony from the soldiers in the incident.
The newly emerged video footage showed that the ambulances were clearly identifiable and had their lights on, the IDF said.
The IDF added that there will be a re-investigation to look into this discrepancy.
Image: The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen – with three red light vehicles visible in front
Addressing the fact the aid workers’ bodies were buried in a mass grave, the IDF said in its briefing this is an approved and regular practice to prevent wild dogs and other animals from eating the corpses.
The IDF could not explain why the ambulances were also buried.
The IDF said six of the 15 people killed were linked to Hamas, but revealed no detail to support the claim.
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Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
The newly emerged footage of the incident was discovered on a phone belonging to one of the workers who was killed, PRCS president Dr Younis Al Khatib said.
“His phone was found with his body and he recorded the whole event,” he said. “His last words before being shot, ‘Forgive me, mom. I just wanted to help people. I wanted to save lives’.”
Sky News used an aftermath video and satellite imagery to verify the location and timing of the newly emerged footage of the incident.
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Aid worker attacks increasing
It was filmed on 23 March north of Rafah and shows a convoy of marked ambulances and a fire-fighting vehicle travelling south along a road towards the city centre. All the vehicles visible in the convoy have their flashing lights on.
The footage was filmed early in the morning, with a satellite image seen by Sky News taken at 9.48am local time on the same day showing a group of vehicles bunched together off the road.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hit out at the US over its “weak” response to lethal Russian attacks on his hometown on Friday.
President Zelenskyy posted a lengthy and emotional statement on X about Russia’s strikes on Kryvyi Rih, which killed 19 people.
Meanwhile Ukrainian drones hit an explosives factory in Russia’s Samara region in an overnight strike, a member of Ukraine’s SBU security service told Reuters.
In his post, President Zelenskyy accused the United States of being “afraid” to name-check Russia in its comment on the attack.
“Unfortunately, the reaction of the American Embassy is unpleasantly surprising: such a strong country, such a strong people – and such a weak reaction,” he wrote on X.
“They are even afraid to say the word “Russian” when talking about the missile that killed children.”
America’s ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink had written on X: “Horrified that tonight a ballistic missile struck near a playground and restaurant in Kryvyi Rih.
“More than 50 people injured and 16 killed, including 6 children. This is why the war must end.”
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Strike on Zelenskyy’s home city
President Zelenskyy went on in his post to say: “Yes, the war must end. But in order to end it, we must not be afraid to call a spade a spade.
“We must not be afraid to put pressure on the only one who continues this war and ignores all the world’s proposals to end it. We must put pressure on Russia, which chooses to kill children instead of a ceasefire.”
Grandmother ‘burned to death in her home’
Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the city’s defense council, said the missile attack, followed by a drone attack, had killed 19 people, including nine children.
“The Iskander-M missile strike with cluster munitions at the children’s playground in the residential area, to make the shrapnel fly further apart, killed 18 people.
“One grandmother was burnt to death in her house after Shahed’s direct hit.”
Russia’s defence ministry said it had struck a military gathering in a restaurant – an assertion rebutted by the Ukrainian military as misinformation.
“The missile hit right on the street – around ordinary houses, a playground, shops, a restaurant,” President Zelenskyy wrote.
Mr Zelenskyy also detailed the child victims of the attack including “Konstantin, who will be 16 forever” and “Arina, who will also be 7 forever”.
The UK’s chief of the defence staff Sir Tony Radakin said he had met the Ukrainian leader on Friday, along with French armed forces leader General Thierry Burkhard.
“Britain and France are coming together & Europe is stepping up in a way that is real & substantial, with 200 planners from 30 nations working to strengthen Ukraine’s long term security,” Sir Tony wrote.
Global financial markets gave a clear vote of no-confidence in President Trump’s economic policy.
The damage it will do is obvious: costs for companies will rise, hitting their earnings.
The consequences will ripple throughout the global economy, with economists now raising their expectations for a recession, not only in the US, but across the world.