Rishi Sunak may yet find himself asking what Sir Gavin Williamson would have done between now and Christmas, as he faces an unenviable uphill struggle to manage his party.
While the prime minister presented himself as a fresh start when he entered Number 10 two weeks ago, the fissures, fury and fire inside the Conservative party have only partially calmed. This may yet change given the scale of the challenge ahead.
Here are five of them…
The Autumn Statement
The storm clouds are gathering. A revolt is brewing on tax. The Conservative membership refused to put Mr Sunak in Downing Street over the summer – in part – because as chancellor he took Britain to a 70-year high. Mr Sunak has subsequently been installed without consulting them.
On Thursday evening, Iain Duncan Smith told Sky News that “it will be of deep concern if we go over the top on tax rises because it’s absolutely a fact of life that tax rises will make the recession deeper”.
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He thinks the size of the black hole, which he stresses is based on forecasts (which can be wrong), may be smaller than expected particularly if energy costs drop. Newspapers have speculated on tax rises on every front, from income to inheritance tax. When the latter was floated at the weekend, one Tory MP told me: “You do have to ask what is the point of a Tory government anymore.”
A quickie Brexit deal on Northern Ireland
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This is a sleeper cell issue that could cause untold pain to Mr Sunak’s premiership if he gets it wrong. Some MPs believe there is a chance of a deal within weeks to overhaul the Northern Ireland Protocol – the agreement between the UK and EU preserves both the integrity of the EU single market as well as the lack of a hard border on the island of Ireland.
US President Joe Biden has suggested a deadline for a deal is the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement next April, and he is personally keen to resolve what he regards as a long-running sore. In his opening fortnight, Mr Sunak has made a huge effort to repair relations with the French and US presidents.
He was not an instinctive hardliner in EU Brexit discussions in Boris Johnson’s government. You can see the political attraction of a deal for Mr Sunak. But again, beware the hard Brexiteers. They – and some in the Unionist community in Northern Ireland – fear what will emerge is an expedient deal to reduce checks which still leaves this part of the UK subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
But if this happens, what happens to Suella Braverman, the home secretary, Chris Heaton Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary and Steve Baker, a Northern Ireland minister, and the chance of a revolt on his right flank?
Mr Duncan Smith told Sky News that the EU was not in a position to do a decent deal with the UK, and Mr Sunak should wait until after controversial legislation giving the UK the unilateral ability to disapply the protocol is in place. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss never successfully took on the ERG wing of the Tory party: will Mr Sunak be different?
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4:15
Analysis: ‘PM wasn’t as on form’
The trial of Boris Johnson
Forget “I’m A Celebrity”, the reality TV drama of late autumn could be the Privileges Committee inquiry into Mr Johnson over whether statements by the ex-PM during partygate “appear to amount to misleading the House”.
Although not formally confirmed, the plan has been to televise parts of the hearings – in effect to allow viewers to watch the evidence themselves in the hope that they reach the same conclusion as the panel of MPs chaired by Harriet Harman.
This has been plenty of potential to upend Mr Sunak’s administration. The PM’s spokesman said this week that this government “takes our responsibilities to assist the committee seriously” – a far cry from the approach taken when Ms Truss was in power.
Expect diaries, WhatsApp messages that have survived, and testimony all to be shared. Will Boris Johnson-supporting MPs be relaxed about the active decision by the Mr Sunak government to be complicit in the investigation?
Or will those who transferred their allegiance from Mr Johnson to Ms Truss – and now find themselves in the wilderness – allow themselves to become riled up at events?
As this parliament enters the twilight years, Mr Sunak cannot avoid multiple potentially bruising electoral tests. The first couple were in seats that elected Labour MPs last time around: on 1 December the City of Chester goes to the polls in a by-election to find a successor to Christian Matheson, who resigned after sexual misconduct allegations which he denied.
There will also be a by-election in Stretford and Urmston to find a replacement for Kate Green, the Labour MP who is stepping down to become deputy mayor of Manchester. But this will be little sweat for Mr Sunak since Labour will be expected to win. But then the party could be facing the self-inflicted wound generated by peerages for two Mr Johnson allies in his resignation honours list could cause by-elections.
Image: RIshi Sunak gets hectored by Sir Keir Starmer over Sir Gavin Williamson’s resignation at PMQs
Nadine Dorries, the mid-Bedfordshire MP with a 24,664 majority and Nigel Adams, the Selby and Ainsty MP which has a 20,137 majority could both trigger much more problematic elections. The margin of Tory victory in 2019 in both was considerable: but that means losses in these two very different parts of the county will be cataclysmic.
Rishi Sunak, Paul Dacre and The Blob
This is niche – but high impact. Ex-Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre is tipped to feature on Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list for a peerage. This would come despite the recommendation of House of Lords appointments committee, which reportedly rejected his nomination earlier in the year.
However, it would be for Mr Sunak to ultimately push through Mr Johnson’s recommendation against what Mr Dacre himself might term “the blob”. Would he risk the likely criticism for handing a peerage in the face of the rejection by the official committee, or would he risk the wrath of the Daily Mail by refusing?
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
Image: A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
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Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Image: Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
Image: An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.
US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
Image: File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Image: Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Image: Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Image: Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.
The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.
Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.
Image: Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP
Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.
Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.
Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.
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6:35
Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped
Concern over threat to interest rates
A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.
A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.
The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
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Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”
“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast
“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”
“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.
“He’s preparing for war.”
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Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.
He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.
Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”
Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).
But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.