Rishi Sunak may yet find himself asking what Sir Gavin Williamson would have done between now and Christmas, as he faces an unenviable uphill struggle to manage his party.
While the prime minister presented himself as a fresh start when he entered Number 10 two weeks ago, the fissures, fury and fire inside the Conservative party have only partially calmed. This may yet change given the scale of the challenge ahead.
Here are five of them…
The Autumn Statement
The storm clouds are gathering. A revolt is brewing on tax. The Conservative membership refused to put Mr Sunak in Downing Street over the summer – in part – because as chancellor he took Britain to a 70-year high. Mr Sunak has subsequently been installed without consulting them.
On Thursday evening, Iain Duncan Smith told Sky News that “it will be of deep concern if we go over the top on tax rises because it’s absolutely a fact of life that tax rises will make the recession deeper”.
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He thinks the size of the black hole, which he stresses is based on forecasts (which can be wrong), may be smaller than expected particularly if energy costs drop. Newspapers have speculated on tax rises on every front, from income to inheritance tax. When the latter was floated at the weekend, one Tory MP told me: “You do have to ask what is the point of a Tory government anymore.”
A quickie Brexit deal on Northern Ireland
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This is a sleeper cell issue that could cause untold pain to Mr Sunak’s premiership if he gets it wrong. Some MPs believe there is a chance of a deal within weeks to overhaul the Northern Ireland Protocol – the agreement between the UK and EU preserves both the integrity of the EU single market as well as the lack of a hard border on the island of Ireland.
US President Joe Biden has suggested a deadline for a deal is the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement next April, and he is personally keen to resolve what he regards as a long-running sore. In his opening fortnight, Mr Sunak has made a huge effort to repair relations with the French and US presidents.
He was not an instinctive hardliner in EU Brexit discussions in Boris Johnson’s government. You can see the political attraction of a deal for Mr Sunak. But again, beware the hard Brexiteers. They – and some in the Unionist community in Northern Ireland – fear what will emerge is an expedient deal to reduce checks which still leaves this part of the UK subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
But if this happens, what happens to Suella Braverman, the home secretary, Chris Heaton Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary and Steve Baker, a Northern Ireland minister, and the chance of a revolt on his right flank?
Mr Duncan Smith told Sky News that the EU was not in a position to do a decent deal with the UK, and Mr Sunak should wait until after controversial legislation giving the UK the unilateral ability to disapply the protocol is in place. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss never successfully took on the ERG wing of the Tory party: will Mr Sunak be different?
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4:15
Analysis: ‘PM wasn’t as on form’
The trial of Boris Johnson
Forget “I’m A Celebrity”, the reality TV drama of late autumn could be the Privileges Committee inquiry into Mr Johnson over whether statements by the ex-PM during partygate “appear to amount to misleading the House”.
Although not formally confirmed, the plan has been to televise parts of the hearings – in effect to allow viewers to watch the evidence themselves in the hope that they reach the same conclusion as the panel of MPs chaired by Harriet Harman.
This has been plenty of potential to upend Mr Sunak’s administration. The PM’s spokesman said this week that this government “takes our responsibilities to assist the committee seriously” – a far cry from the approach taken when Ms Truss was in power.
Expect diaries, WhatsApp messages that have survived, and testimony all to be shared. Will Boris Johnson-supporting MPs be relaxed about the active decision by the Mr Sunak government to be complicit in the investigation?
Or will those who transferred their allegiance from Mr Johnson to Ms Truss – and now find themselves in the wilderness – allow themselves to become riled up at events?
As this parliament enters the twilight years, Mr Sunak cannot avoid multiple potentially bruising electoral tests. The first couple were in seats that elected Labour MPs last time around: on 1 December the City of Chester goes to the polls in a by-election to find a successor to Christian Matheson, who resigned after sexual misconduct allegations which he denied.
There will also be a by-election in Stretford and Urmston to find a replacement for Kate Green, the Labour MP who is stepping down to become deputy mayor of Manchester. But this will be little sweat for Mr Sunak since Labour will be expected to win. But then the party could be facing the self-inflicted wound generated by peerages for two Mr Johnson allies in his resignation honours list could cause by-elections.
Image: RIshi Sunak gets hectored by Sir Keir Starmer over Sir Gavin Williamson’s resignation at PMQs
Nadine Dorries, the mid-Bedfordshire MP with a 24,664 majority and Nigel Adams, the Selby and Ainsty MP which has a 20,137 majority could both trigger much more problematic elections. The margin of Tory victory in 2019 in both was considerable: but that means losses in these two very different parts of the county will be cataclysmic.
Rishi Sunak, Paul Dacre and The Blob
This is niche – but high impact. Ex-Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre is tipped to feature on Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list for a peerage. This would come despite the recommendation of House of Lords appointments committee, which reportedly rejected his nomination earlier in the year.
However, it would be for Mr Sunak to ultimately push through Mr Johnson’s recommendation against what Mr Dacre himself might term “the blob”. Would he risk the likely criticism for handing a peerage in the face of the rejection by the official committee, or would he risk the wrath of the Daily Mail by refusing?
“Liberation day” was due to be on 1 April. But Donald Trump decided to shift it by a day because he didn’t want anyone to think it was an April fool.
It is no joke for him and it is no joke for governments globally as they brace for his tariff announcements.
It is stunning how little we know about the plans to be announced in the Rose Garden of the White House later today.
It was telling that we didn’t see the President at all on Tuesday. He and all his advisers were huddled in the West Wing, away from the cameras, finalising the tariff plans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the so-called ‘measured voice’. A former hedge fund manager, he has argued for targeted not blanket tariffs.
Peter Navarro is Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing. A long-time aide and confidante of the president, he is a true loyalist and a firm believer in the merits of tariffs.
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His economic views are well beyond mainstream economic thought – precisely why he appeals to Trump.
The third key character is Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary and the biggest proponent of the full-throttle liberation day tariff juggernaut.
The businessman, philanthropist, Trump fundraiser and billionaire (net worth ranging between $1bn and $2bn) has been among the closest to Trump over the past 73 days of this presidency – frequently in and out of the West Wing.
If anything goes wrong, observers here in Washington suspect Trump will make Lutnick the fall guy.
And what if it does all go wrong? What if Trump is actually the April fool?
“It’s going to work…” his press secretary said when asked if it could all be a disaster, driving up the cost of living for Americans and creating global economic chaos.
“The president has a brilliant team who have been studying these issues for decades and we are focussed on restoring the global age of America…” Karoline Leavitt said.
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2:52
‘Days of US being ripped off are over’
Dancing to the president’s tune
My sense is that we should see “liberation day” not as the moment it’s all over in terms of negotiations for countries globally as they try to carve out deals with the White House. Rather it should be seen as the start.
Trump, as always, wants to be seen as the one calling the shots, taking control, seizing the limelight. He wants the world to dance to his tune. Today is his moment.
But beyond today, alongside the inevitable tit-for-tat retaliation, expect to see efforts by nations to seek carve-outs and to throw bones to Trump; to identify areas where trade policies can be tweaked to placate the president.
Even small offerings which change little in a material sense could give Trump the chance to spin and present himself as the winning deal maker he craves to be.
One significant challenge for foreign governments and their diplomats in Washington has been engaging the president himself with proposals he might like.
Negotiations take place with a White House team who are themselves unsure where the president will ultimately land. It’s resulted in unsatisfactory speculative negotiations.
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6:03
Treasury minister: ‘We’ll do everything to secure a deal’
Too much faith placed in the ‘special relationship’?
The UK believes it’s in a better position than most other countries globally. It sits outside the EU giving it autonomy in its trade policy, its deficit with the US is small, and Trump loves Britain.
It’s true too that the UK government has managed to accelerate trade conversations with the White House on a tariff-free trade partnership. Trump’s threats have forced conversations that would normally sit in the long grass for months.
Yet, for now, the conversations have yielded nothing firm. That’s a worry for sure. Did Keir Starmer have too much faith in the ‘special relationship’?
Downing Street will have identified areas where they can tweak trade policy to placate Trump. Cars maybe? Currently US cars into the UK carry a 10% tariff. Digital services perhaps?
US food? Unlikely – there are non-tariff barriers on US food because the consensus seems to be that chlorinated chicken and the like isn’t something UK consumers want.
Easier access to UK financial services maybe? More visas for Americans?
For now though, everyone is waiting to see what Trump does before they either retaliate or relent and lower their own market barriers.
A man inside Mandalay has told Sky News bodies remain under “collapsed and inclining” buildings after the Myanmar earthquake – as a woman was freed from rubble after 91 hours.
The local inside Myanmarsaid many of the structures in the city were wrecked or badly damaged after the 7.7 magnitude quake on Friday, adding: “There are some bodies, some dead bodies, that still remain and other destruction”.
Meanwhile, in a televised address, Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing said the number of dead had risen to 2,719 and is expected to exceed 3,000.
Some 4,521 people have been injured, while a further 441 are missing.
More than 10,000 buildings are known to have collapsed or been severely damaged in central and northwest Myanmar, the World Health Organisation said.
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0:41
Before and after: Myanmar earthquake
Smell of dead bodies near destroyed buildings
In Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, which was close to the quake’s epicentre, 50 children and two teachers were killed when their preschool collapsed, the United Nations said.
The local in the city told Sky News that “a lot of local assistance associations like charity groups are still struggling with digging out the corpses, the dead bodies, from the destruction”.
He said that “when we pass near the destructions, the collapsed building or very damaged building, we can smell” dead bodies.
“The smell of the dead bodies after four days… it still remains,” he said, before adding: “For the social assistance association… they need permission [to give aid] especially from the government.
“If they don’t have permission, then they cannot do anything.”
Image: People sheltering in a makeshift tent camp in Mandalay. Pic: Reuters
He also said others in Mandalay are struggling after the earthquake, which followed the city being affected by cyclones, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the civil war in Myanmar – where a junta seized power in a coup in 2021.
“Some people, they say they have nothing at all,” the local added. “They have no more home, they have no more belongings, because its already damaged.”
Woman freed after 91 hours under rubble
It comes after the fire department in Myanmar’s capital freed a woman trapped under rubble 91 hours after the building collapsed.
The 63-year-old woman was freed early on Tuesday in Naypyidaw.
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As the country continues to recover, a worker from the International Rescue Committee said people fear aftershocks and are sleeping outside on roads or in open fields.
Communities are struggling to meet basic needs such as access to clean water and sanitation, and emergency teams are working “tirelessly” to locate survivors and provide aid, the UN said in a report.
Rescue efforts have been complicated by the civil war, as rebel groups say the junta has conducted airstrikes, even after the quake, while NGOs fear that certain areas could be denied vital supplies.
“Myanmar’s military has a longstanding practice of denying aid to areas where groups who resist it are active,” said Joe Freeman, a researcher with Amnesty Myanmar.
“It must immediately allow unimpeded access to all humanitarian organisations and remove administrative barriers delaying needs assessments.”
The father of a paramedic killed by Israel in Gaza has told Sky News he would have been on the mission to rescue wounded colleagues, but was ill that day and so his son went instead.
“It was supposed to be me, you know. I was on duty that night but fell ill and sent him in my place.”
Speaking at his son’s funeral, Hassan Abu Hileh said Israel is to blame for the death of Mohammed and the other 14 men.
Image: Hassan Abu Hileh’s son Mohammed was killed when Israeli forces said they ‘opened fire on suspicious vehicles’
“We need protection from the international community. We need protection for medical teams. We are medics-soldiers of duty, not armed fighters. We carry out humanitarian work. If I see someone who needs medical attention, I’m obligated to serve them,” he said.
The bodies of the Red Crescent and United Nations workers went missing around eight days ago. Despite repeated requests to search for them, all denied by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), the UN eventually found 14 bodies buried under sand in a mass grave. One is still missing.
They were still wearing their uniforms.
Image: Funerals took place on Monday for medics killed in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
The director of the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza has accused Israel of murdering the emergency workers. “We arrived at the scene of the crime to retrieve the bodies and found that all of them had been shot directly in the upper part of their bodies and buried,” said Dr Bashir Murad.
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“The ambulances were also destroyed and buried.”
Image: Dr Bashir Murad, director of the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza, said the workers had been shot
The bodies were found in sand in the south of the Gaza Strip in what Jonathan Whittall, Gaza head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, called a “mass grave”, marked with the emergency light from a crushed ambulance.
Mr Whittall posted pictures and video of Red Crescent teams digging in the sand for the bodies and workers laying them out on the ground, covered in plastic sheets.
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1:22
Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has denied killing innocent medical workers and said Israeli forces opened fire on suspicious vehicles that were travelling without coordination and in an active combat zone.
“The IDF did not randomly attack an ambulance on March 23,” claimed a spokesman.
“Last Sunday, several uncoordinated vehicles were identified advancing suspiciously toward IDF troops without headlights or emergency signals. IDF troops then opened fire at the suspected vehicles.
“Earlier that day, cars that did not belong to terrorists were coordinated and passed safely on the same route.”
We have asked the IDF why the bodies were found in a mass grave but have received no comment.
More than 400 aid workers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, according to the UN.
According to the UN, at least 1,060 healthcare workers have been killed in the 18 months since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed southern Israel on 7 October 2023.
The UN is reducing its international staff in Gaza by a third because of safety concerns.