US inflation figures are lower than Wall Street forecast – but there’s pain ahead for UK

Published

2 years ago

November 10, 2022

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Today’s dramatic US inflation figures raise hopes that the Federal Reserve is winning the fight against the monster.

Consumer price inflation in October came in at 7.7% on a year-on-year basis – lower than the 7.9% Wall Street had expected – and at 0.4% on a month-on-month basis which, again, was lower than the 0.6% that had been forecast.

This was a landmark in itself, since it is the first time since February this year that the headline rate of annual inflation has gone below 8%.

More important still are the so-called ‘core’ inflation numbers. This is the number that strips out volatile elements such as energy, food and tobacco and is relied on by the Fed as an accurate barometer of underlying inflationary pressures in the economy.

Here, too, the numbers were heading in the right direction.

On a year-on-year basis, core inflation came in at 6.3%, which was lower than the 6.5% expected. And, on a month-on-month basis, core inflation came in at 0.3% against the 0.5% that had been forecast on Wall Street.

The figures will raise hopes that the Fed will not have to raise US interest rates as aggressively in future as it has been.

The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, indicated last month that the Fed was even prepared to risk a US recession in order to bring inflation under control and the central bank has raised its main policy, Fed Funds, by 0.75% in each of its last four policy meetings.

The market reaction was instant. US stock futures rose, as did US Treasuries (US government IOUs), sending Treasury yields (which move in the opposite direction to the price) lower.

There was a similar reaction in Europe. The FTSE-100, which had been languishing in negative territory all morning, immediately reversed those losses to post a 1.5% gain. Yields on gilts – UK government bonds and the focus of so much attention lately – also fell.

On the currency markets, the prospect of the Fed going easier on interest rate rises from now on sent the dollar lower. Sterling is currently ahead by some 2% against the greenback and heading back up towards $1.16. The euro has also posted a gain of more than 1% against the greenback on the session.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said: “The first downside surprise in inflation in several months will inevitably be received by an equity market ovation.

“Not only is headline CPI back below its pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict level, but some details of the report suggest the long-awaited decline in inflation could now be underway.

“For now, however, despite both core and headline inflation easing, the best we can expect from the Fed is a downshift in the pace of tightening. A 0.5% hike, rather than 0.75%, in December is clearly on the cards but, until we have had a run of these types of CPI reports, a pause is still some way out.

“Let the market enjoy today, it still has another 100bps [1%] or so of tightening to commiserate.”

Stuart Clark, portfolio manager at wealth manager Quilter, added: “Inflation in the US has once again fallen, giving some momentum to the idea that the worst is now behind us.

“The rate is lower than expectations and this will provide some relief to consumers and the wider market, however it is worth noting food and shelter is still increasing, so we’re not completely out of the woods yet.”

Those are points worth bearing in mind. At 7.7%, the headline rate of inflation remains significantly higher than anything most American households or businesses have experienced during the last four decades. The Fed is still going to have to carry on raising the cost of borrowing and not least because, as was shown by other figures published today, the US jobs market still remains immensely strong.

And on this side of the Atlantic, it is by no means clear that inflation has even peaked, as it appears to have in the US.

The headline CPI figure for September was 10.1% and it is unlikely to be any lower when the October figure is published nine days from now. The same can be said for the eurozone where, in October, headline CPI hit 10.7%.

So there is still a lot of pain to come for UK households and businesses.

That said, it is unalloyed good news that inflation in the US is starting to moderate, albeit remaining at a historically high rate.

So far as the fight against inflation goes, the US economy is not out of the tunnel yet, but the light at the end of it is moving into view.

Business

Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use – with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Published

51 mins ago

November 14, 2024

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Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use - with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Consumer rights group Which? is suing Apple for £3bn over the way it deploys the iCloud.

If the lawsuit succeeds, around 40 million Apple customers in the UK could be entitled to a payout.

The lawsuit claims Apple, which controls iOS operating systems, has breached UK competition law by giving its iCloud storage preferential treatment, effectively “trapping” customers with Apple devices into using it.

It also claims the company overcharged those customers by stifling competition.

The rights group alleges Apple encouraged users to sign up to iCloud for storage of photos, videos and other data while simultaneously making it difficult to use alternative providers.

Which? says Apple doesn’t allow customers to store or back-up all of their phone’s data with a third-party provider, arguing this violates competition law.

The consumer rights group says once iOS users have signed up to iCloud, they then have to pay for the service once their photos, notes, messages and other data go over the free 5GB limit.

“By bringing this claim, Which? is showing big corporations like Apple that they cannot rip off UK consumers without facing repercussions,” said Which?’s chief executive Anabel Hoult.

“Taking this legal action means we can help consumers to get the redress that they are owed, deter similar behaviour in the future and create a better, more competitive market.”

Apple ‘rejects’ claims and will defend itself

Apple “rejects” the idea its customers are tied to using iCloud and told Sky News it would “vigorously” defend itself.

“Apple believes in providing our customers with choices,” a spokesperson said.

“Our users are not required to use iCloud, and many rely on a wide range of third-party alternatives for data storage. In addition, we work hard to make data transfer as easy as possible – whether it’s to iCloud or another service.

“We reject any suggestion that our iCloud practices are anti-competitive and will vigorously defend against any legal claim otherwise.”

It also said nearly half of its customers don’t use iCloud and its pricing is inline with other cloud storage providers.

How much could UK Apple customers receive if lawsuit succeeds?

The lawsuit will represent all UK Apple customers that have used iCloud services since 1 October 2015 – any that don’t want to be included will need to opt out.

However, if consumers live abroad but are otherwise eligible – for example because they lived in UK and used the iCloud but then moved away – they can also opt in.

The consumer rights group estimates that individual consumers could be owed an average of £70, depending on how long they have been paying for the services during that period.

Apple is facing a similar lawsuit in the US, where the US Department of Justice is accusing the company of locking down its iPhone ecosystem to build a monopoly.

Apple said the lawsuit is “wrong on the facts and the law” and that it will vigorously defend against it.

Big tech’s battles

This is the latest in a line of challenges big tech companies like Apple, Google and Samsung have faced around anti-competitive practices.

Most notably, a landmark case in the US earlier this year saw a judge rule that Google holds an illegal monopoly over the internet search market.

The company is now facing a second antitrust lawsuit, and may be forced to break up parts of its business.

And in December last year, a judge declared Google’s Android app store a monopoly in a case brought by a private gaming company.

“Now that five companies control the whole of the internet economy, there’s a real need for people to fight back and to really put pressure on the government,” William Fitzgerald, from tech campaigning organisation The Worker Agency, told Sky News.

“That’s why we have governments; to hold corporations accountable, to actually enforce laws.”

Business

Homebase deal leaves 2,000 jobs at risk

Published

13 hours ago

November 13, 2024

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The jobs of more than half of the workforce at the DIY chain Homebase are at risk after the retailer’s owners called in administrators following a failed attempt at a sale.

Sky News reported earlier on Wednesday that around 1,500 people were set to keep their roles as 75 of the 130 stores were set to be snapped up by the saviour of Wilko in a so-called pre-pack deal.

The Range, also a general merchandise specialist, was confirmed as the buyer later in the day.

Teneo, which is handling the process, is understood to have been working to find a buyer for as many of the chain’s sites as possible.

Teneo said in a statement on Wednesday afternoon that up to 70 stores were confirmed to be included in the deal – saving up to 1,600 jobs out of 3,600.

It leaves 2,000 jobs at risk.

Forty-nine other stores will continue to trade while alternative offers are explored.

Sources told Sky’s City editor Mark Kleinman that there had been many expressions of interest in the remaining stores, despite the gloom being felt across the retail sector over the higher tax take demanded in the budget.

The sector has warned of higher inflation and job losses arising from the measures, which include increased employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels.

The pre-pack deal – which typically allows a buyer to cherry-pick the assets it wants – brings to an end a six-year ownership of Homebase by Hilco, the retail restructuring specialist.

Teneo had initially been attempting to find a buyer for the whole Homebase business.

The partial sale comprises all those stores in the Republic of Ireland and the Homebase brand and its e-commerce business.

The Range is part of CDS Superstores, which is controlled by the businessman Chris Dawson – nicknamed “the Del Boy billionaire” because of the distinctive number plate on his Rolls-Royce Wraith.

Last year, it paid £7m to buy the brand and intellectual property assets of Wilko, which had collapsed into administration.

Since then, Mr Dawson has opened a string of new Wilko outlets.

Business

P&O spent £47m sacking and replacing 786 mainly British seafarers in 2022

Published

19 hours ago

November 13, 2024

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P&O spent £47m sacking and replacing 786 mainly British seafarers in 2022

P&O Ferries spent more than £47m summarily sacking hundreds of seafarers in 2022, helping it cut losses by more than £125m and putting it on a path to profitability, according to accounts due to be published in the coming days.

The dismissal of 786 mainly British seafarers, and their replacement with largely non-European agency staff earning as little as £4.87 an hour, was hugely controversial, drawing criticism from across the political spectrum and threats of a consumer boycott.

The controversy was rekindled last month when Sky News revealed that DP World, P&O‘s Dubai-based parent, considered withdrawing a £1bn investment at its London Gateway port following criticism of P&O by the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.

P&O has always maintained the restructuring was necessary to allow it to compete with its rivals on cross-Channel routes, and prevent a total collapse of the company with the loss of more than 2,000 jobs.

In financial statements for P&O Holdings, filed 11 months late and seen by Sky News, the company says the restructuring cost £47.4m including legal fees and consultants, allowing it to cut the overall wage and salary bill by £21.3m.

In a note accompanying the accounts submitted to Companies House, P&O’s directors describe the restructuring as part of a “transformational journey” that will help it return to recording a profit before tax this year.

“The business has been on a transformational journey as it has recovered from the challenges of the global pandemic, Brexit and the impact of disruption caused by the change in the crewing model,” the directors say.

“The group believes that the transformational actions that commenced in 2022 and continue through into 2024 will equip the business to grow profitably when demand rises in the coming years.”

Brexit and COVID financial distress

The accounts reveal the financial distress in which P&O found itself in 2022.

Having recorded losses of £375m the previous year as it struggled to recover from the pandemic-era decline in passenger numbers and post-Brexit complications, it was in breach of its covenants to external lenders underwriting the construction of new hybrid cross-Channel ferries.

Despite the restructuring costs, revenue increased by £83.3m to £918m in the financial year, but the company still recorded a loss of £249m and was reliant on loans totalling £365m from parent company DP World to remain a going concern.

An additional £70m was made available this year, with 4.5% interest rolled up and not requiring any repayment until 2028 at the earliest.

The financial statements also reveal that P&O was forced to sell one of the new cross-Channel ferries to a French subsidiary to pay off an external financing loan of £76.9m, and then lease the vessel back from its ultimate owner.

In a statement, P&O Ferries said: “Our 2022 financial accounts show the challenges faced by the business at that time, and why the business needed to transform into a competitive operator with a sustainable long-term future.

“P&O Ferries has taken steps to adjust to new market conditions, matching our capacity to demand, and adopting a more flexible operating model that enables us to better serve our customers.”