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Results have been coming in all night and our live maps and charts are continuing to update, showing the progress of both races.

When we started it seemed like the Democrats were likely to lose the House and probably the Senate too. With just the final results still to come in there’s a chance they could keep both.

The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 221 House seats compared with the Democrats’ 214, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters.

A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.

The race for the Senate is also very much in the balance, with just four seats left to declare. Georgia’s race is set for a run-off on 6 December so we may have to wait until then for the final standings.

There has been the odd notable gain for the Republicans in certain seats, for example Jen Kiggans defeating January 6 investigator Elaine Luria in Virginia’s battleground 2nd district.

But much of the picture is muddied by the redistricting that has taken place since the 2020 election. Many of the seats listed as ‘gains’ are new districts entirely or represent geographies almost unrecognisable to ones they’ve replaced.

These gains, for both parties although benefiting the Republicans overall, don’t necessarily reflect the shifting of Americans’ political preferences but the adjustment of the American political map.

What is the House of Representatives and how are seats allocated?

Although the map above looks fairly well soaked-through in Republican red, that too can be misleading.

Each seat has a similar population to each other, but some are much smaller than others geographically. Usually that’s in city areas where there’s a denser population.

This map shows each district as the same size as each other, which can give a better sense of the balance of power across the country.

The race for the Senate

The balance of power in the Senate was always expected to be poised more delicately than the House, and with just four seats left to declare we’re not much closer to working out who will come out on top.

The Democrats made a potentially crucial gain in Pennsylvania but the Republicans managed to hold out in a tight race in Wisconsin – a state won by President Biden in 2020.

We won’t get the result from Georgia until after 6 December, because state rules dictate that if no candidate reaches 50% the top two must fight again in a run-off vote.

Given the win in Pennsylvania, the Republicans need to flip two of the three remaining Democrat seats to take control – Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. So if one party wins both of Nevada and Arizona that second Georgia vote won’t matter quite as much.

Including those seats which weren’t up for election this year, this is how the balance of the Senate will look until the 2024 election.

The six states with a split Senate delegation during the last two years was the fewest in more than a century, something which the Pew Research Center said is a “reflection of the partisan polarisation that has reshaped American politics” in recent decades.

As Pennsylvania now has two Democratic senators we could be on for a new low this year.

Why aren’t all states having elections?

What does this mean for Donald Trump?

The former president is yet to officially announce his intention to run for election again but is still the bookies’ favourite to win in 2024.

Although he is less prominent on social media these days he certainly hasn’t shied away from politics. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and 49 for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.

But initial results suggest that may have backfired. Republican House candidates backed by Mr Trump have actually performed worse than those who weren’t.

The Republican vote share in areas with a Trump-backed candidate has increased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the 2020 election.

That’s far less than the 8 percentage point increase in areas where the local Republican candidate had no such endorsement.

Those endorsements, prized weapons in Republican primaries of recent months, appear to have proven less helpful in winning over Democrats and independent voters.

The difference is most striking in Democrat-held seats, but even in Republican areas Trump-endorsed candidates have fared relatively poorly.

This analysis is based on early results from just over half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least gives us a glimpse of how things are going.

What does this election mean for America?

After the 2020 election it was the first time since Barack Obama’s first term that both chambers of Congress and the presidency had been in Democratic hands.

It is much easier for a president or a party to enact their policies if all three are held by the same party.

If Joe Biden’s Democrats lose control of one or both chambers they will lose the ability to set the agenda on the big issues dividing the country, things like gun control, the economy, abortion, immigration, and climate change.

The president’s parties do typically lose seats at the midterms – 28 on average – although the Democrats will of course be hoping to buck that trend as George W Bush last did in 2002, a year on from 9/11.

President Biden’s approval ratings have been at a historic low however, which made that look unlikely.

The Republicans needed to gain five seats from the 2020 result to take the House, and just one for the Senate.


Credits:

Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe
Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta

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Thousands protest against Donald Trump and Elon Musk at rallies in all 50 US states

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Thousands protest against Donald Trump and Elon Musk at rallies in all 50 US states

Thousands of people gathered in various cities across the US as protests against Donald Trump and Elon Musk took place in all 50 states on Saturday.

Around 1,200 demonstrations were planned in locations including Washington DC, New York City and West Palm Beach, Florida – just miles away from where the US president has this weekend played golf.

The “Hands Off!” protests were against the Trump administration’s handling of government downsizing, human rights and the economy, among other issues.

In Washington DC, protesters streamed on the grass in front of the Washington Monument, where one person carried a banner which read: “Make democracy great again.”

Demonstrators hold up their banners during a 'Hands Off!' protests protest against President Donald Trump at the Washington Monument in Washington, Saturday, April 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
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Thousands gathered in Washington DC to rally against various Trump policies. Pic: AP

A demonstrator twirls a ribbon during a "Hands Off!" protest against President Donald Trump at the Washington Monument in Washington, Saturday, April 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
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Pic: AP

Another protester took aim at Mr Trump‘s handling of Russia and Ukraine, with a placard that read: “Stop Putin’s puppets from destroying America.”

Tesla boss Mr Musk also featured on many signs due to his role in controversial government cuts as head of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Demonstrators march during a "Hands Off!" protest against President Donald Trump on Saturday, April 5, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Andres Kudacki)
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Demonstrators in NYC. Pic: AP

People take part in the nationwide anti-Trump “Hands Off” protest in Atlanta, Georgia U.S., April 5, 2025. REUTERS/ Megan Varner
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People marching in Atlanta, Georgia. Pic: Reuters

Hundreds of people show up to protest President Donald Trump at Centre Congregational Church in Brattleboro, Vt., during a national "Hands Off" protest on Saturday, April 5, 2025. (Kristopher Radder/The Brattleboro Reformer via AP)
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A rally in Vermont. Pic: The Brattleboro Reformer via AP

Terry Klein, a retired biomedical scientist, said she drove to the rally to protest Mr Trump’s policies on “everything from immigration to the DOGE stuff to the tariffs this week, to education”.

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“I mean, our whole country is under attack, all of our institutions, all the things that make America what it is,” she added.

A drone view shows a protest at the Utah State Capitol building in a demonstration that is part of larger "Hands off" events organized nationwide against U.S. President Donald Trump, in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., April 5, 2025. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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A drone view of the protest at the Utah State Capitol building. Pic Reuters

People participate in a protest at the Utah State Capitol building in a demonstration that is part of larger "Hands off" events organized nationwide against U.S. President Donald Trump, in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., April 5, 2025. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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A protester sports a Handmaid’s Tale costume. Pic: Reuters

People participate in a protest at the Utah State Capitol building in a demonstration that is part of larger "Hands off" events organized nationwide against U.S. President Donald Trump, in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., April 5, 2025. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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Pic: Reuters

Some at the various protests carried Ukrainian flags, while others sported rainbow attire and waved rainbow flags in support of the LGBTQ+ community.

Other protesters wore Palestinian keffiyeh scarves and carried “Free Palestine” signs.

Protesters refuse to take Donald Trump’s policies lying down

It was built to honour George Washington, a founding father of the United States.

And in the shadow of the 555ft Washington Monument, protestors were refusing to accept Donald Trump’s policies lying down.

“Stand tall,” they chanted, again and again.

“In every city, stand tall. In every state, stand tall. In truth, stand tall. In justice, stand tall.”

Those words, shouted by thousands on the city’s iconic mall, were reinforced by the words on their placards and t-shirts.

A minister, wearing a t-shirt with ‘Troublesome Priest’ printed on it, told me she found what was happening in the US government “appalling and immortal”.

One man said he had won the long-distance award, having travelled 2,750 miles from Hawaii for the protest.

“I finally reached a breaking point,” he added. “I couldn’t take it anymore.”

Another woman said: “We have to speak up, we have to act, we have to do something, because this is not America.”

I asked her what she would say to those who argue the people did speak when they elected Donald Trump as president.

She replied: “Some people have spoken and then some people have not and those of us that have not, we need to speak now.”

Thousands marched in New York City’s midtown Manhattan and in Boston, Massachusetts, while hundreds gathered in the sunshine outside the Utah State Capitol building in Salt Lake City, and in the rain outside the Statehouse in Columbus, Ohio.

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Mr Trump – who shook financial markets with his tariffs announcement this week – spent the day in Florida, playing a round of golf before returning to his Mar-a-Lago residence.

People protest in Manhattan, during a demonstration that is part of larger “Hands Off!” events organized nationwide against U.S. President Donald Trump, in New York City, New York, U.S., April 5, 2025. REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs
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People protest in Manhattan. Pic: Reuters

Activists protest President Donald Trump, who was a few miles away at his Trump National Golf Club, during a "Hands Off!" demonstration Saturday, April 5, 2025, in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Activists in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Pic: AP

Some four miles from Mar-a-Lago, more than 400 people gathered – and drivers honked their horns in support of protesters who held up signs including one which read: “Markets tank, Trump golfs.”

The White House has said Mr Trump plans to go golfing again on Sunday.

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Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem

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Global markets have given Trump a clear no-confidence vote - and his fickleness is making the problem worse

Global financial markets gave a clear vote of no-confidence in President Trump’s economic policy.

The damage it will do is obvious: costs for companies will rise, hitting their earnings.

The consequences will ripple throughout the global economy, with economists now raising their expectations for a recession, not only in the US, but across the world.

Tariffs latest: FTSE 100 suffers biggest daily drop since COVID

Financial investors had been gradually re-calibrating their expectations of Donald Trump over the past few months.

Hopes that his actions may not match his rhetoric were dashed on Wednesday as he imposed sweeping tariffs on the US’ trading partners, ratcheting up protectionism to a level not seen in more than a century.

Markets were always going to respond to that but they are also battling with another problem: the lack of certainty when it comes to Trump.

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He is a capricious figure and we can only guess his next move. Will he row back? How far is he willing to negotiate and offer concessions?

Read more:
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow
Trade war sparks ‘$2.2trn’ global market sell-off

These are massive unknowns, which are piled on to uncertainty about how countries will respond.

China has already retaliated and Europe has indicated it will go further.

That will compound the problems for the global economy and undoubtedly send shivers through the markets.

Much is yet to be determined, but if there’s one thing markets hate, it’s uncertainty.

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Stock markets suffer sharp drops after Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs

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Stock markets suffer sharp drops after Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs

Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.

The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.

While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.

Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble

All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.

A person works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Monday, March 31, 2025. Pic: AP
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The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP

By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.

Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.

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Worst one-day losses since COVID

As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.

It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.

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The latest numbers on tariffs

‘Trust in President Trump’

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.

“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”

Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”

He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.

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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?

Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’

The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.

He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.

Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.

He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”

Read more:
Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff numbers add up?

Tariffs about something more than economics: power

It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.

Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.

It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.

He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”

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