NHL Power Rankings: Where every team stands vs. preseason expectations
After a month of the 2022-23 NHL season, some teams are clearly surpassing preseason expectations while others have stumbled badly at the start.
In this week’s power rankings, we take a look at the preseason point total over/unders established by Caesars Sportsbook, and how far teams are beyond or below that mark based on their point projections.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors rates teams against one another — taking into account game results, injuries and upcoming schedule — and those results are tabulated to produce the list featured here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 4. Points paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 2
Preseason O/U: 97
Points pace: 142
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 12), vs. SJ (Nov. 15), vs. ARI (Nov. 17)
Coach Bruce Cassidy has the Golden Knights exceeding their preseason over/under by the greatest number of points, thanks to a defense that’s the best in the NHL in front of steadier-than-expected goaltending.
Previous ranking: 1
Preseason O/U: 97
Points pace: 141
Next seven days: @ BUF (Nov. 12), vs. VAN (Nov. 13), vs. PHI (Nov. 17)
While the rest of the NHL was wondering if their championship window was still open, the Bruins started the season by taking a wrecking ball, knocking down the entire wall and saying, “Here’s your window.” And they did it without Charlie McAvoy, who returned to the ice this week.
Previous ranking: 8
Preseason O/U: 89.5
Points pace: 129
Next seven days: vs. ARI (Nov. 12), @ MTL (Nov. 15), @ TOR (Nov. 17)
The Devils’ current pace would more than double their standings point total from last season (63). Amazing what a healthy core and some occasional saves can do.
Previous ranking: 11
Preseason O/U: 93.5
Points pace: 107
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Nov. 11), @ PHI (Nov. 13), @ TB (Nov. 15), @ FLA (Nov. 17)
The Pete DeBoer Effect is in full swing in Dallas, as the veteran coach averages a 103.5-point pace in his first season coaching teams. The Stars are slightly ahead of that at the start.
Previous ranking: 13
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 111
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 12), @ CHI (Nov. 14), vs. COL (Nov. 17)
The Canes’ formula remains the same, as they’re getting nearly 62% of the shot attempts at 5-on-5 through 13 games. They’re a little ahead of their points projection — and their special teams haven’t jelled quite yet.
Previous ranking: 21
Preseason O/U: 88.5
Points pace: 116
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 12), @ SEA (Nov. 13), vs. ANA (Nov. 17)
New head coach Rick Bowness is getting results with the Jets, who have seen a dramatic turnaround defensively year over year.
Previous ranking: 13
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Points pace: 98
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 12), @ OTT (Nov. 14), @ NSH (Nov. 17)
The Islanders’ goals-against average ranks in the top 10 thanks to the brilliant Ilya Sorokin, but their uptick in goal scoring year over year has put them on pace to exceed preseason expectations.
Previous ranking: 19
Preseason O/U: 79.5
Points pace: 105
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 11), vs. WPG (Nov. 13), vs. NYR (Nov. 17)
The Kraken infamously missed their preseasons point projections in their inaugural season, which were inflated based on the Golden Knights’ expansion success. Expectations were adjusted accordingly for Year 2 — and the Kraken are currently shattering them to challenge for the division lead.
Previous ranking: 9
Preseason O/U: 112.5
Points pace: 103
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Nov. 12), vs. STL (Nov. 14), @ CAR (Nov. 17)
The Avs’ big-name players are rolling — minus the injured Gabriel Landeskog — but their supporting cast hasn’t quite met the challenge of reaching their preseason point projection.
Previous ranking: 10
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Points pace: 100
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 12), vs. WSH (Nov. 15), vs. DAL (Nov. 17)
There was little chance the Panthers were going to replicate their 122-point juggernaut from last season, but some recent success has them back on a 100-point pace.
Previous ranking: 7
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 95
Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 11), vs. WSH (Nov. 13), vs. DAL (Nov. 15), vs. CGY (Nov. 17
The Bolts have played to a 100-point pace for the past five seasons, but some injuries and an average start for Andrei Vasilevskiy have them missing their standings target for now.
Previous ranking: 14
Preseason O/U: 107.5
Points pace: 100
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 11), vs. VAN (Nov. 12), @ PIT (Nov. 15), vs. NJ (Nov. 17)
Depending on the week, the Leafs are either a disaster that should cost everyone their jobs or a talented team that’s finally putting it together in the regular season, so those firings will have to wait until after the first round of the playoffs.
Previous ranking: 18
Preseason O/U: 73.5
Points pace: 101
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 12), vs. DAL (Nov. 13), @ CBJ (Nov. 15), @ BOS (Nov. 17)
Few teams are defying expectations like the Flyers have so far. Much of that credit goes to the goaltending of Carter Hart, whose numbers are better than what you’d expect based on the play of the team in front of him.
Previous ranking: 16
Preseason O/U: 94
Points pace: 97
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 12), @ CGY (Nov. 14), @ EDM (Nov. 16)
The Kings get the Dennis Green memorial “They were who we thought they were!” award in the power rankings, as they are just three points off their preseason prediction after 16 games.
Previous ranking: 6
Preseason O/U: 101
Points pace: 93
Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 12), vs. ARI (Nov. 13), @ SEA (Nov. 17)
The Rangers are stronger analytically yet worse offensively than they were last season, which is a bit of a conundrum.
Previous ranking: 22
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Points pace: 100
Next seven days: @ LA (Nov. 12), @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ SJ (Nov. 17)
When GM Steve Yzerman made several veteran additions in the offseason, many assumed he believed the Red Wings were ready to turn the corner. Their point pace would indicate it’s less of a turn and more like a Mario Kart power glide.
Previous ranking: 5
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 87
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 12), vs. LA (Nov. 16)
Edmonton was already off its preseason points expectations when Evander Kane suffered that unfortunate skate cut injury to his wrist that will keep the top-line winger out for at least three months.
Previous ranking: 4
Preseason O/U: 103
Points pace: 76
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 12), vs. LA (Nov. 14), @ TB (Nov. 17)
Nazem Kadri has been great, Jonathan Huberdeau has been OK, but Jacob Markstrom has been below average, with a quality starts percentage of .200.
Previous ranking: 12
Preseason O/U: 79
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: vs. BOS (Nov. 12), vs. VAN (Nov. 15), @ OTT (Nov. 16)
The Sabres are running ahead of expectations but still have to shed the label as the NHL’s “start fast, fade quickly” team.
Previous ranking: 20
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 11), vs. SJ (Nov. 13), @ NSH (Nov. 15), vs. PIT (Nov. 17)
The Wild have yet to find their groove offensively, averaging 2.92 goals per game after hitting 3.72 goals per game last season. How much offense did Kevin Fiala take with him?
Previous ranking: 15
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Points pace: 76
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 11), @ MTL (Nov. 12), vs. TOR (Nov. 15), @ MIN (Nov. 17)
The Penguins snapped their seven-game winless streak, but it’s a long climb back to their projected preseason point total.
Previous ranking: 17
Preseason O/U: 96.5
Points pace: 77
Next seven days: vs. TB (Nov. 11), @ TB (Nov. 13), @ FLA (Nov. 15), @ STL (Nov. 17)
The Capitals are nearly 20 points off their preseason total thanks to a slew of significant names — Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson and Connor Brown — missing significant time.
Previous ranking: 24
Preseason O/U: 71.5
Points pace: 88
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 12), vs. NJ (Nov. 15), @ CBJ (Nov. 17)
Thanks to head coach Marty St. Louis and an offensively dominant top line, the Canadiens are blowing past their standings projections.
Previous ranking: 26
Preseason O/U: 65.5
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 12), vs. CAR (Nov. 14), vs. STL (Nov. 16)
Based on preseason expectations — and those expectations were that the Blackhawks would be in the tank for Connor Bedard — Chicago is one of the league’s biggest surprises. First-year coach Luke Richardson has the Blackhawks playing hard, competitive games even in defeat.
Previous ranking: 25
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Points pace: 64
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 12), vs. MIN (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 17)
The early-season struggles of Juuse Saros (.892 save percentage through 10 games) are one factor behind the Predators’ stumble out of the gate.
Previous ranking: 29
Preseason O/U: 92.5
Points pace: 64
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 12), @ BOS (Nov. 13), @ BUF (Nov. 15)
Amid lackluster play and front-office dysfunction, the Canucks are around 29 points off their expected total from the preseason.
Previous ranking: 28
Preseason O/U: 73
Points pace: 49
Next seven days: @ DAL (Nov. 11), @ MIN (Nov. 13), @ VGK (Nov. 15), vs. DET (Nov. 17)
Despite Erik Karlsson‘s best efforts, the Sharks are running more than 20 points off their extremely modest preseason expectations.
Previous ranking: 32
Preseason O/U: 63.5
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: @ NJ (Nov. 12), @ NYR (Nov. 13), @ VGK (Nov. 17)
Doesn’t it feel like the Coyotes should be even more than 19 points better than their preseason total? Or is that just what happens when a team wins in Toronto?
Previous ranking: 23
Preseason O/U: 84.5
Points pace: 57
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 12), vs. NYI (Nov. 14), vs. BUF (Nov. 16)
Many NHL executives and media pundits were proclaiming “watch out for Ottawa” before the season. We don’t think they meant “… because the Senators are going to fall woefully short of their point total projections,” but here we are.
Previous ranking: 27
Preseason O/U: 94.5
Points pace: 55
Next seven days: @ VGK (Nov. 12), @ COL (Nov. 14), @ CHI (Nov. 16), vs. WSH (Nov. 17)
The Blues are playing like a team that has lost its identity, lost its swagger and perhaps most of all lost its goal-scoring prowess, owning the league’s worst offense. They’re currently the NHL team missing the mark by the greatest point margin.
Previous ranking: 30
Preseason O/U: 81.5
Points pace: 50
Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 12), vs. PHI (Nov. 15), vs. MTL (Nov. 17)
The Jackets have badly missed even the modest expectations they earned after signing Johnny Gaudreau in the offseason. Being 31st in offense and 32nd in defense will do that to a team.
Previous ranking: 31
Preseason O/U: 80
Points pace: 53
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 12), vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ WPG (Nov. 17)
The Ducks aren’t coming close to their preseason total at the moment, but what they lack in success in the standings they make up with fun, fun and more fun on the ice. We’ll also take “losing fun” over “losing boring” any day.
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy and Oregon coach Dan Lanning are unexpectedly giving the Week 2 matchup between their teams some extra juice.
While speaking on his radio show Monday, Gundy said Oklahoma State spent “around $7 million” on its team over the past three years before referring to how much the Ducks have spent on their roster in recent years.
“I think Oregon spent close to $40 [million] last year alone,” Gundy said. “So, that was just one year. Now, I might be off a few million.”
Gundy made several other comments about Oregon’s resources — he said “it’ll cost a lot of money to keep” Ducks quarterback Dante Moore and that he believes Oregon’s budget should determine the programs they schedule outside of the Big Ten.
“Oregon is paying a lot, a lot of money for their team,” Gundy said. “From a nonconference standpoint, there’s coaches saying they should [play teams with similar budgets].”
On Monday night during his weekly news conference, Lanning responded.
“If you want to be a top-10 team in college football, you better be invested in winning. We spend to win,” Lanning said when asked about Gundy’s comments. “Some people save to have an excuse for why they don’t. … I can’t speak on their situation; I have no idea what they got in their pockets over there.”
Lanning added that he has “a lot of respect” for Gundy and praised how Gundy has consistently led his team to winning seasons over his 20-year tenure in Stillwater. Both teams are 1-0 this season; the Ducks are ranked No. 7 and are expected to be vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
“Over the last three to five years, they’ve elevated themselves. They have a lot of resources,” Gundy said. “They’ve got them stacked out there pretty good right now.”
Last year, Georgia coach Kirby Smart referenced Oregon’s resources, saying at SEC media days that he wishes he could get “some of that NIL money” that Oregon alum and Nike founder Phil Knight “has been sharing with Dan Lanning.”
“I think it’s impressive that guys like Kirby have been signing the No. 1 class in the nation without any NIL money this entire time,” Lanning said jokingly in response to Smart during Big Ten media days last year. “Obviously, Coach Smart took a little shot at us. But if you want to be a top-10 team in college football, you better have great support. We have that.”
While Smart’s and Lanning’s barbs had the tone of two coaches who have worked together (Lanning was Georgia’s defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021), the back-and-forth with Gundy on Monday was unexpected.
“I’m sure UT-Martin maybe didn’t have as much as them last week, and they played,” Lanning said of Oklahoma State. “So, we’ll let it play out.”
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David Hale
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — If Bill Belichick were still in New England, still helming a team he’d coached for a quarter-century, where he’d won six Super Bowls, he could have shrugged off Monday’s debacle against TCU as just a hiccup on a long road to somewhere better, answering his critics with his now ubiquitous retort: On to the next game.
In Chapel Hill on Monday, with a sell-out crowd eager to get its first glimpse of a new era of North Carolina football under the tutelage of one of the game’s all-time greats, what happened couldn’t be shrugged off so easily.
Belichick’s Tar Heels were embarrassed, with TCU rolling to a 48-14 win in which UNC didn’t simply look like the lesser team, but one that often appeared utterly unprepared for the moment.
“We’re better than what we were tonight but we have to go out there and show that and prove it,” Belichick said. “Nobody’s going to do it for us. We’re going to have to do it ourselves, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
Through the first drive of Belichick’s tenure as a college coach, everything had gone right.
Crowds filled the bars and restaurants along Franklin Street in Chapel Hill hours before kickoff. A pregame concert, headlined by country star and UNC alum Chase Rice, set the stage for a star-studded event. Michael Jordan and Lawrence Taylor and Mia Hamm were all in attendance as the Belichick era at North Carolina finally kicked off.
And then the Tar Heels delivered a flawlessly executed 83-yard touchdown drive, and the packed house at Kenan Stadium exploded.
This was the dream when UNC shocked the college football world by landing Belichick, and suddenly Belichick’s promise of bringing a national championship to a program that hasn’t even won an ACC title in more than half a century felt entirely plausible.
Then TCU delivered one cold dose of reality after another, and by midway through the third quarter, after Devean Deal‘s scoop-and-score on a Gio Lopez fumble put the Horned Frogs up by 34, the once-frenetic stands emptied out and the hope for something magical in Chapel Hill seemed a distant memory.
“They out-played us, out-coached us, and they were just better than we were tonight,” Belichick said. “It’s all there was to it. They did a lot more things right than we did.”
Belichick turned over the bulk of North Carolina’s roster in one offseason, bringing in 70 new players — nearly half of whom arrived after spring practice. The transformation of the roster along with Belichick’s famously guarded approach to media meant few outside of North Carolina’s locker room had a clear vision of just what this squad would look like.
By the time the bludgeoning was over, the mantra from the Tar Heels’ perspective was that this performance hardly showcased what they’d seen on the practice field for the past six weeks.
“I thought we were prepared for the game,” backup quarterback Max Johnson said. “We prepared for a week and a half for TCU specifically, but we’ve been working on our fundamentals for a year now. We need to do a better job executing.”
After the opening touchdown drive, North Carolina went three-and-out on five of its next six drives. Lopez went more than two hours of real time between completions. UNC failed to convert its first six third-down tries, and Lopez threw a pick-six late in the first half that seemed to be the last gasp for the Tar Heels. The defense was equally catastrophic. TCU racked up 542 yards of total offense and ran for 258 yards, including a 75-yard scamper by Kevorian Barnes, and the Heels missed one tackle after another after another.
“Too many three-and-outs, too many long plays on defense, two turnovers for touchdowns. You can’t overcome that,” Belichick said. “We just can’t perform well doing some of the things we did. We’ve got to be better than that. We had too many self-inflicted wounds we have to eliminate before we can even worry about addressing our opponent.”
Johnson came on in relief of Lopez, who left after his sack-fumble with a lower back injury, and he delivered a touchdown drive that at least offered some spark of life for the Heels’ offense. Belichick said it was unclear whether Lopez would be able to play Saturday at Charlotte, but he left open the possibility that the QB competition could be re-opened.
“We’ll see how Gio is,” Belichick said. “Max came in after being off for a long time and hung in there and made some plays in a tough situation. We’ll take a look at it and see where things are at and go from there. It’s too early to tell now.”
Before the game, Belichick spent nearly a half-hour on the field watching both teams go through warm-ups. He chatted with dignitaries and appeared to bask in the moment, but the magic quickly evaporated.
The 48 points scored by TCU in Belichick’s first career game as a college coach are more than his teams allowed in any of his 333 NFL games, and for as much as he’d worked to sell North Carolina as “the 33rd NFL team,” Monday’s disaster felt like a reminder that, regardless of his success in the pros, this was new territory.
His response to the loss, however, was largely in line with what fans have come to expect of the understated coach — simple, succinct and emphatic.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do,” he said. “We’ll get at it.”
For a fan base that had waited nine months for this moment, however, it could be harder to turn the page. Belichick never promised a quick fix, but there were reasonable assurances that this team would play with physicality and fundamentals, that UNC wouldn’t be out-coached or out-schemed.
By halftime Monday, the veil had been lifted. Belichick has six Super Bowl rings, but this was a bigger job than perhaps any he’d assumed before.
The excitement that reached its apex after the opening touchdown drive perfectly showcased what this experiment could look like. The question now is whether UNC’s reality will ever match the dream or if Belichick’s first drive as a college coach will be remembered as the pinnacle of his tenure here.
“Don’t lose hope,” Johnson said. “We’re going to continue to put our best foot forward, continue to work and trust in each other.”
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Andrea Adelson
Florida State freshman linebacker Ethan Pritchard was shot Sunday night and is hospitalized in critical but stable condition in intensive care at a Tallahassee-area hospital, the school said Monday.
According to the Gadsden County Sheriff’s Office, Pritchard was inside a vehicle outside an apartment building when the shooting happened Sunday night in Havana, Florida, which is about 16 miles from Tallahassee, near the Georgia state line. An investigation into the shooting is ongoing.
In its statement, Florida State said Pritchard was visiting family at the time he was shot.
“The Pritchard family is thankful for the support from so many people, as well as the care from first responders and medical professionals, and asks that their privacy be respected at this time,” the FSU statement said.
Pritchard, who is from Sanford, Florida, enrolled at Florida State in January but did not play in the Seminoles’ season-opening victory against Alabama.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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