NHL Power Rankings: Where every team stands vs. preseason expectations
After a month of the 2022-23 NHL season, some teams are clearly surpassing preseason expectations while others have stumbled badly at the start.
In this week’s power rankings, we take a look at the preseason point total over/unders established by Caesars Sportsbook, and how far teams are beyond or below that mark based on their point projections.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors rates teams against one another — taking into account game results, injuries and upcoming schedule — and those results are tabulated to produce the list featured here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 4. Points paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 2
Preseason O/U: 97
Points pace: 142
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 12), vs. SJ (Nov. 15), vs. ARI (Nov. 17)
Coach Bruce Cassidy has the Golden Knights exceeding their preseason over/under by the greatest number of points, thanks to a defense that’s the best in the NHL in front of steadier-than-expected goaltending.
Previous ranking: 1
Preseason O/U: 97
Points pace: 141
Next seven days: @ BUF (Nov. 12), vs. VAN (Nov. 13), vs. PHI (Nov. 17)
While the rest of the NHL was wondering if their championship window was still open, the Bruins started the season by taking a wrecking ball, knocking down the entire wall and saying, “Here’s your window.” And they did it without Charlie McAvoy, who returned to the ice this week.
Previous ranking: 8
Preseason O/U: 89.5
Points pace: 129
Next seven days: vs. ARI (Nov. 12), @ MTL (Nov. 15), @ TOR (Nov. 17)
The Devils’ current pace would more than double their standings point total from last season (63). Amazing what a healthy core and some occasional saves can do.
Previous ranking: 11
Preseason O/U: 93.5
Points pace: 107
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Nov. 11), @ PHI (Nov. 13), @ TB (Nov. 15), @ FLA (Nov. 17)
The Pete DeBoer Effect is in full swing in Dallas, as the veteran coach averages a 103.5-point pace in his first season coaching teams. The Stars are slightly ahead of that at the start.
Previous ranking: 13
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 111
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 12), @ CHI (Nov. 14), vs. COL (Nov. 17)
The Canes’ formula remains the same, as they’re getting nearly 62% of the shot attempts at 5-on-5 through 13 games. They’re a little ahead of their points projection — and their special teams haven’t jelled quite yet.
Previous ranking: 21
Preseason O/U: 88.5
Points pace: 116
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 12), @ SEA (Nov. 13), vs. ANA (Nov. 17)
New head coach Rick Bowness is getting results with the Jets, who have seen a dramatic turnaround defensively year over year.
Previous ranking: 13
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Points pace: 98
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 12), @ OTT (Nov. 14), @ NSH (Nov. 17)
The Islanders’ goals-against average ranks in the top 10 thanks to the brilliant Ilya Sorokin, but their uptick in goal scoring year over year has put them on pace to exceed preseason expectations.
Previous ranking: 19
Preseason O/U: 79.5
Points pace: 105
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 11), vs. WPG (Nov. 13), vs. NYR (Nov. 17)
The Kraken infamously missed their preseasons point projections in their inaugural season, which were inflated based on the Golden Knights’ expansion success. Expectations were adjusted accordingly for Year 2 — and the Kraken are currently shattering them to challenge for the division lead.
Previous ranking: 9
Preseason O/U: 112.5
Points pace: 103
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Nov. 12), vs. STL (Nov. 14), @ CAR (Nov. 17)
The Avs’ big-name players are rolling — minus the injured Gabriel Landeskog — but their supporting cast hasn’t quite met the challenge of reaching their preseason point projection.
Previous ranking: 10
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Points pace: 100
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 12), vs. WSH (Nov. 15), vs. DAL (Nov. 17)
There was little chance the Panthers were going to replicate their 122-point juggernaut from last season, but some recent success has them back on a 100-point pace.
Previous ranking: 7
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 95
Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 11), vs. WSH (Nov. 13), vs. DAL (Nov. 15), vs. CGY (Nov. 17
The Bolts have played to a 100-point pace for the past five seasons, but some injuries and an average start for Andrei Vasilevskiy have them missing their standings target for now.
Previous ranking: 14
Preseason O/U: 107.5
Points pace: 100
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 11), vs. VAN (Nov. 12), @ PIT (Nov. 15), vs. NJ (Nov. 17)
Depending on the week, the Leafs are either a disaster that should cost everyone their jobs or a talented team that’s finally putting it together in the regular season, so those firings will have to wait until after the first round of the playoffs.
Previous ranking: 18
Preseason O/U: 73.5
Points pace: 101
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 12), vs. DAL (Nov. 13), @ CBJ (Nov. 15), @ BOS (Nov. 17)
Few teams are defying expectations like the Flyers have so far. Much of that credit goes to the goaltending of Carter Hart, whose numbers are better than what you’d expect based on the play of the team in front of him.
Previous ranking: 16
Preseason O/U: 94
Points pace: 97
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 12), @ CGY (Nov. 14), @ EDM (Nov. 16)
The Kings get the Dennis Green memorial “They were who we thought they were!” award in the power rankings, as they are just three points off their preseason prediction after 16 games.
Previous ranking: 6
Preseason O/U: 101
Points pace: 93
Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 12), vs. ARI (Nov. 13), @ SEA (Nov. 17)
The Rangers are stronger analytically yet worse offensively than they were last season, which is a bit of a conundrum.
Previous ranking: 22
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Points pace: 100
Next seven days: @ LA (Nov. 12), @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ SJ (Nov. 17)
When GM Steve Yzerman made several veteran additions in the offseason, many assumed he believed the Red Wings were ready to turn the corner. Their point pace would indicate it’s less of a turn and more like a Mario Kart power glide.
Previous ranking: 5
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Points pace: 87
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 12), vs. LA (Nov. 16)
Edmonton was already off its preseason points expectations when Evander Kane suffered that unfortunate skate cut injury to his wrist that will keep the top-line winger out for at least three months.
Previous ranking: 4
Preseason O/U: 103
Points pace: 76
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 12), vs. LA (Nov. 14), @ TB (Nov. 17)
Nazem Kadri has been great, Jonathan Huberdeau has been OK, but Jacob Markstrom has been below average, with a quality starts percentage of .200.
Previous ranking: 12
Preseason O/U: 79
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: vs. BOS (Nov. 12), vs. VAN (Nov. 15), @ OTT (Nov. 16)
The Sabres are running ahead of expectations but still have to shed the label as the NHL’s “start fast, fade quickly” team.
Previous ranking: 20
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 11), vs. SJ (Nov. 13), @ NSH (Nov. 15), vs. PIT (Nov. 17)
The Wild have yet to find their groove offensively, averaging 2.92 goals per game after hitting 3.72 goals per game last season. How much offense did Kevin Fiala take with him?
Previous ranking: 15
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Points pace: 76
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 11), @ MTL (Nov. 12), vs. TOR (Nov. 15), @ MIN (Nov. 17)
The Penguins snapped their seven-game winless streak, but it’s a long climb back to their projected preseason point total.
Previous ranking: 17
Preseason O/U: 96.5
Points pace: 77
Next seven days: vs. TB (Nov. 11), @ TB (Nov. 13), @ FLA (Nov. 15), @ STL (Nov. 17)
The Capitals are nearly 20 points off their preseason total thanks to a slew of significant names — Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson and Connor Brown — missing significant time.
Previous ranking: 24
Preseason O/U: 71.5
Points pace: 88
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 12), vs. NJ (Nov. 15), @ CBJ (Nov. 17)
Thanks to head coach Marty St. Louis and an offensively dominant top line, the Canadiens are blowing past their standings projections.
Previous ranking: 26
Preseason O/U: 65.5
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 12), vs. CAR (Nov. 14), vs. STL (Nov. 16)
Based on preseason expectations — and those expectations were that the Blackhawks would be in the tank for Connor Bedard — Chicago is one of the league’s biggest surprises. First-year coach Luke Richardson has the Blackhawks playing hard, competitive games even in defeat.
Previous ranking: 25
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Points pace: 64
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 12), vs. MIN (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 17)
The early-season struggles of Juuse Saros (.892 save percentage through 10 games) are one factor behind the Predators’ stumble out of the gate.
Previous ranking: 29
Preseason O/U: 92.5
Points pace: 64
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 12), @ BOS (Nov. 13), @ BUF (Nov. 15)
Amid lackluster play and front-office dysfunction, the Canucks are around 29 points off their expected total from the preseason.
Previous ranking: 28
Preseason O/U: 73
Points pace: 49
Next seven days: @ DAL (Nov. 11), @ MIN (Nov. 13), @ VGK (Nov. 15), vs. DET (Nov. 17)
Despite Erik Karlsson‘s best efforts, the Sharks are running more than 20 points off their extremely modest preseason expectations.
Previous ranking: 32
Preseason O/U: 63.5
Points pace: 82
Next seven days: @ NJ (Nov. 12), @ NYR (Nov. 13), @ VGK (Nov. 17)
Doesn’t it feel like the Coyotes should be even more than 19 points better than their preseason total? Or is that just what happens when a team wins in Toronto?
Previous ranking: 23
Preseason O/U: 84.5
Points pace: 57
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 12), vs. NYI (Nov. 14), vs. BUF (Nov. 16)
Many NHL executives and media pundits were proclaiming “watch out for Ottawa” before the season. We don’t think they meant “… because the Senators are going to fall woefully short of their point total projections,” but here we are.
Previous ranking: 27
Preseason O/U: 94.5
Points pace: 55
Next seven days: @ VGK (Nov. 12), @ COL (Nov. 14), @ CHI (Nov. 16), vs. WSH (Nov. 17)
The Blues are playing like a team that has lost its identity, lost its swagger and perhaps most of all lost its goal-scoring prowess, owning the league’s worst offense. They’re currently the NHL team missing the mark by the greatest point margin.
Previous ranking: 30
Preseason O/U: 81.5
Points pace: 50
Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 12), vs. PHI (Nov. 15), vs. MTL (Nov. 17)
The Jackets have badly missed even the modest expectations they earned after signing Johnny Gaudreau in the offseason. Being 31st in offense and 32nd in defense will do that to a team.
Previous ranking: 31
Preseason O/U: 80
Points pace: 53
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 12), vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ WPG (Nov. 17)
The Ducks aren’t coming close to their preseason total at the moment, but what they lack in success in the standings they make up with fun, fun and more fun on the ice. We’ll also take “losing fun” over “losing boring” any day.
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
DANIA BEACH, Fla. — While discussing the opportunity that awaits Penn State in the College Football Playoff, coach James Franklin said Wednesday that the showdown against Notre Dame is about “representing our schools and our conferences.”
Franklin then caught himself, realizing Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman was sitting just to his right.
“Or our conference, excuse me,” Franklin said.
Penn State will be representing the Big Ten against FBS independent Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Nittany Lions reached the Big Ten championship game before earning a No. 6 seed in the first 12-team CFP, while the Fighting Irish made the playoff as an at-large and earned the No. 7 seed despite playing in one fewer game.
Franklin said he thinks a larger CFP ultimately requires more uniformity around college football, including every team to be part of a conference and playing the same number of league games. Notre Dame, one of three remaining FBS independents, sees its status as central to the school’s identity and has resisted chances to join the Big Ten and other conferences over the years. The Fighting Irish compete in the ACC for most of their other major sports, and they have a scheduling agreement with the ACC in football.
“It should be consistent across college football,” Franklin said. “This is no knock at [Freeman] or Notre Dame, but I think everybody should be in a conference. I think everybody should play a conference championship game, or nobody should play a conference champion championship game. I think everybody should play the same number of conference games.”
Penn State reached the CFP by playing nine conference games as well as the Big Ten championship game against No. 1 Oregon, which defeated the Nittany Lions 45-37 on Dec. 7. The Big 12 also has maintained a nine-game league slate, while the SEC and ACC have stayed at eight conference games.
Franklin, who coached at Vanderbilt before Penn State, praised the SEC for remaining at eight league games, which the league’s coaches wanted. The SEC has repeatedly considered going to nine league games during Franklin’s time in the Big Ten.
“I was not a math major at East Stroudsburg, but just the numbers are going to make things more challenging if you’re playing one more conference game,” he said.
Franklin also highlighted other areas of the sport that could be made more uniform, including starting the season a week earlier to ease the strain of playing more games with an expanded playoff. He reiterated his desire to appoint a college football commissioner unaffiliated with a school or a conference, and once again mentioned longtime coach and current ESPN analyst Nick Saban as an option, along with former Washington and Boise State coach Chris Petersen, now a Fox college football analyst, and Dave Clawson, who recently stepped down as Wake Forest’s coach.
“We need somebody that is looking at it from a big-picture perspective,” Franklin said.
Freeman acknowledged that Notre Dame prides itself on its independence. He said the team uses the weekend of conference championships, when they’re guaranteed not to be playing, as another open week for recovery and other priorities.
Notre Dame ended the regular season Nov. 30 and did not play again until Dec. 20, when it hosted Indiana in a first-round CFP game. In helping craft the format for the 12-team CFP, former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick agreed that if the Irish were selected, they would not be eligible to earn a bye into the quarterfinals.
Freeman noted that he doesn’t have a strong opinion on whether college football needs more uniformity.
“I’m a guy that just [thinks], ‘Tell us what we’re doing and let’s go, and you move forward,'” Freeman said. “I love where we’re at right now. [Athletic director] Pete Bevacqua and our Notre Dame administration will continue to make decisions that are best for our program.”
Franklin said his desire for greater consistency stems from the CFP selection process and the difficulty of committee members to sort through teams with vastly different paths and profiles, and determine strength of schedule and other factors.
“How do you put those people that are in that room to make a really important decision that impacts the landscape of college football, and they can’t compare apples to apples or oranges to oranges?” Franklin said. “I think that makes it very, very difficult.”
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