US midterms are a very unreliable way of predicting the next president | Adam Boulton
By definition, midterm elections in America occur two years into a presidential term with two years to go until the next general election.
They have no direct bearing on who is the president of the United States residing in the White House.
The midterms are about electing officials to Congress – the other, legislative, branch of the US government and to offices in each of the 50 states, the constitutional counterbalance to the centralised federal government in Washington DC.
In the excitement of poring over the many results from a massive nationwide vote involving millions of people, it is worth remembering that extrapolating from the midterms is a very unreliable way of predicting who will be the next president or even who will be the main nominees in the race.
Recent history shows how wrong snap judgments can be. Two years out from the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump was widely regarded as an unlikely joke candidate. At a similar point ahead of 2008, conventional wisdom was leaning towards Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani as nominees.
Quite different people, Barack Obama and John McCain, actually fought it out in the end. In 1994 Newt Gingrich led the “Republican Revolution” with his “contract with America” smashing the ambitions of Bill Clinton’s Democrats. He was Time magazine’s man of the year and tipped as a future president. In spite of numerous bids for the White House, he never came close.
The final results are not yet in but there are already some pointers as to the political mood in the US.
The “expected” red wave was more of a ripple. There is almost always a backlash against a first-term president’s party in the midterms but the Democrats fared much better under President Joe Biden than they did under Mr Obama or Mr Clinton.
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Surge of support for Trump’s Republicans fails to take off
As Dominic Waghorn has reported here, Republican candidates endorsed by Donald Trump fared significantly worse than those who steered clear of him.
Only a minority of Republican candidates were interested in campaigning on “the big steal” – the false claim that Mr Trump really won re-election in 2020, Republican analysts argue that the party is now pivoting away from Donald Trump’s obsession.
Dr Mehmet Oz the Republican senate candidate in Pennsylvania pointedly phoned Democrat John Fetterman to concede defeat. Mr Trump is said to be furious with his wife Melania for endorsing the TV doctor. Fox News played Mr Trump down on election night and Rupert Murdoch’s main US newspapers, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post, have become heavily critical of him. The Post dubbed the former President “Trumpty Dumpty” this week.
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‘Red wave’ fails to show
Control of the evenly-split US Senate is down to three states which also played a key role in determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential contest: Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. Given that Republicans have not polled as strongly as they would have liked, the special election run-off in Georgia on 6 December will be key. Under state law the winner has to take over 50% of the vote. In the first round the Democratic incumbent pastor Raphael Warnock had 49.2% and his Republican opponent, former football star Herschel Walker, had 48.7%.
From next January the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, will flip from Democrat to Republican. Kevin McCarthy will replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, the third-highest elected office in the US. A Republican House will most likely prevent President Biden from passing any further significant legislation. The investigation into the 6 January 2021 assault on the Capitol and Mr Trump’s role in it will probably be shelved.
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Donald Trump may soon be yesterday’s news as America’s right-wing media turns to Ron DeSantis
Could Florida governor Ron DeSantis thwart Donald Trump’s fresh run for the White House?
The stand-out winner of the night was 44-year-old Ron DeSantis, the Republican Governor of Florida who won re-election by a landslide in what is now Mr Trump’s home state. Another name to watch is the high profile and ambitious JD Vance, the best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy. He fought a poor campaign but still held the Ohio Senate seat comfortably for the Republicans.
Immediately before the election, the assumption was that the race in 2024 would be a rerun of 2020: Biden v Trump. Both men had already indicated their intention of standing again, though neither had yet made a formal declaration. If he (all men so far) put his name forward, an incumbent president such as Mr Biden would not normally be seriously challenged by his own party. The Trump machine looked to be unbeatable.
Trump vs DeSantis battle anticipated
The Democrats’ relatively mild drubbing this week would seem to cement Mr Biden in place. But there is now a question mark over Mr Trump in spite of his insistence in advance that a poor Republican showing would have nothing to do with him. A battle for the nomination between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis is widely anticipated. Things are unlikely to be so straight forward.
Mr Trump faces a busy few days. On Monday he is under subpoena to appear before the House January 6 Inquiry – though whether he will turn up is a matter of conjecture. On Tuesday he has promised to make a “very big announcement” that he said will be “perhaps” the biggest in American history. This is widely expected to be the official launch of his bid for re-election in 2024. Win or lose, campaigning is a money maker for Trump.
Becoming president would be the best escape from the various civil and legal law suits engulfing him. But the Republican hierarchy do not want him to be their candidate and pressure is mounting on him to delay. If he pulls out, Mr DeSantis will definitely put himself forward. However, there would be bound to be a contested primary season for the Republican nomination, with no certainty that Mr DeSantis would emerge the winner. Mr DeSantis’ prospects are even more uncertain if he gets locked in a bloody contest with Mr Trump, with others putting themselves forward as compromise candidates.
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The answer to the Republicans’ candidate quandary may determine whether Joe Biden, who will celebrate his 80th birthday on 20 November, really bids for the democratic nomination and a second term. Analysing the data, the Republican pollster Frank Luntz explains that Mr Biden is the only Democratic nominee likely to beat Mr Trump (he’s already done it once) but, paradoxically, any other Republican nominee would beat Mr Biden. If it is not going to be against Mr Trump, the Democrats would be wise to go with someone other than Mr Biden.
Fallibility of opinion polls
The fallibility of American opinion polls further adds to the uncertainty. The polls and the data mining aggregators who work from them, such as Nate Silver’s 538.com, had another bad night this week. John Della Volpe, the head of polling at the Kennedy School at Harvard University, did much better foreseeing the mere “red ripple”.
He points out that most of the commercial polls are commissioned by right-leaning entities and have tended to show the Republicans doing better than turns out to be the case. In particular their samples have failed to reflect the high level engagement of younger voters and their centrist tendencies, most likely boosted by the Supreme Court’s ruling against abortion.
All this means that we don’t yet know what the political battleground will be in 2024 and we can’t be sure who the “frontrunners” will be. It is unwise to read too much into the midterms or to pay much attention to the same pundits who told us that President Trump in 2024 was practically a locked-on certainty. The confusing wonders of democracy really were on the ballot this November.
Denmark’s foreign minister has summoned the top US diplomat in the country over a report alleging that people connected to Donald Trump have been carrying out covert influence operations in Greenland.
The move to summon the American charge d’affaires came after Denmark’s national broadcaster reported on Wednesday that at least three people linked to the US president have been involved in such operations.
Mr Trump has repeatedly said he seeks US jurisdiction over Greenland – a vast, semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. He has not ruled out military force to take control of the mineral-rich, strategically located Arctic island.
Denmark, a US NATO ally, and Greenland have both stated that the island is not for sale and have criticised reports of US intelligence-gathering activities in the territory.
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Why does Trump want Greenland?
Danish public broadcaster DR reported on Wednesday that unnamed Danish government and security insiders, as well as unidentified sources in Greenland and the US, believe that at least three Americans with connections to Mr Trump have been carrying out covert influence operations.
According to the report, one individual allegedly created a list of Greenlanders supportive of the US, gathered the names of those critical of Mr Trump, and encouraged locals to highlight incidents that could portray Denmark negatively in the American media.
Two others reportedly attempted to build relationships with local politicians, business figures, and residents.
An influence operation is an organised effort to shape how people in a society think in order to achieve certain political, military or other objectives.
DR said its report is based on information from eight sources who believe the objective is to undermine Denmark’s relationship with Greenland by influencing Greenlandic society from within.
The US embassy in Copenhagen directed queries on the issue to Washington.
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The Danish broadcaster said it had been unable to clarify whether the Americans were working at their own initiative or on orders from someone else. It said it knows their names but chose not to publish them in order to protect its sources.
Sky News is unable to independently verify those claims.
“We are aware that foreign actors continue to show an interest in Greenland and its position in the Kingdom of Denmark,” Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said in a statement released by his ministry.
“It is therefore not surprising if we experience outside attempts to influence the future of the kingdom in the time ahead.
“Any attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of the kingdom will of course be unacceptable,” Mr Rasmussen said.
Cooperation between the governments of Denmark and Greenland “is close and based on mutual trust,” he added.
Responding to a request for comment, the Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) said it believes that “particularly in the current situation, Greenland is a target for influence campaigns of various kinds” that could aim to create divisions in the relationship between Denmark and Greenland
The service said it has consistently increased its efforts and presence in Greenland in collaboration with local authorities and plans to maintain this approach moving forward.
Donald Trump has said he wants to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un again.
Speaking at the White House as he held talks with the new South Korean president Lee Jae Myung, Mr Trump told reporters: “I’d like to meet him this year… I look forward to meeting with Kim Jong Un in the appropriate future.”
“I’d like to have a meeting. I got along great with him,” President Trump said, adding they “became very friendly” during his first term in office.
“We think we can do something in that regard,” he said, adding that he would like to help the relationship between the two Koreas.
Trump and Kim at the demilitarized zone in June 2019. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump and Mr Kim held three meetings between 2018 and 2019 during Mr Trump’s first term and exchanged a number of, what the president called, “beautiful” letters.
In June 2019, Mr Trump briefly stepped into North Korea from the demilitarized zone (DMZ) with South Korea.
The US president on Monday responded to a question about whether he would return to the DMZ by fondly recalling the last time he did so.
“Remember when I walked across the line and everyone went crazy?” especially the Secret Service, Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
But “I loved it”, Mr Trump said. He added he felt safe because he had a good relationship with Mr Kim.
Mr Trump met South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung at the Oval Office on Monday. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump became the first sitting American president to set foot on North Korean soil six years ago.
However, little progress was made in curbing North Korea’s nuclear programme, and Mr Trump acknowledged in March this year that Pyongyang is a “nuclear power”.
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Since Mr Trump’s first-term meetings with Mr Kim ended, North Korea has shown no interest in returning to talks.
The White House said in June that Mr Trump would welcome communications with Mr Kim.
The attempts at rapprochement come after the election in South Korea of Mr Lee, who has pledged to reopen dialogue with North Korea.
As a gesture of engagement in June, Mr Lee suspended South Korean loudspeakers blasting music and messages into the North at the DMZ along their shared border.
Analysts say, however, that engaging North Korea will likely be more difficult for both Mr Lee and Mr Trump than it was in the president’s first term.
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Since then, North Korea has significantly expanded its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.
And it has developed close ties with Russia through direct support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, with Pyongyang providing both troops and weaponry.
Mr Kim told Russian President Vladimir Putin that his country will always stand with Moscow, state media reported in June.
US rapper Lil Nas X has pleaded not guilty after being charged with assaulting a police officer while walking in downtown Los Angeles in his underwear.
The musician, real name Montero Lamar Hill, was taken to hospital and arrested after police responded to reports of a naked man shortly before 6am on Thursday.
The district attorney’s office said on Monday that Lil Nas X faces three counts of battery with injury on a police officer and one count of resisting an executive officer.
He was being held on a $75,000 (£55,457) bail, conditional on attending drug treatment. It is not immediately clear whether he had posted it and been released yet.
He is set to return to court on 15 September for his next pre-trial hearing.
Pic: AP
During the hearing on Monday, Hill’s lawyer Christy O’Connor told the judge he had led a “remarkable” life, adding: “Assuming the allegations here are true, this is an absolute aberration in this person’s life.
“Nothing like this has ever happened to him.”
A law enforcement source told Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, on Thursday that the Old Town Road and Industry Baby hitmaker punched an officer twice in the face during the encounter.
The source added officers were unsure whether he was on any substances or in mental distress.
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NBC News cited TMZ footage where Hill was seen walking down the middle of Ventura Boulevard at 4am on Thursday in a pair of white briefs and cowboy boots.
In the videos, Hill tells a driver to “come to the party” in one clip and in another tells the person: “Didn’t I tell you to put the phone down?”
“Uh oh, someone’s going to have to pay for that,” Hill says as he continues to walk away.
In some clips, Hill struts as if he’s on a catwalk, posing for onlookers, and at one point he places an orange traffic cone on his head.
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