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The last time a chancellor of the exchequer appeared on the Sunday morning political shows he helped kick the economy off a cliff-edge.

Seven long weeks ago, Kwasi Kwarteng was still revelling in the aftermath of his not-so-mini budget and its promise of unfunded tax cuts, so much so he promised more to come.

It was that intervention, as much as the cavalier non-budget, that helped markets make up their mind about the UK’s direction under Mr Kwarteng and his mayfly prime minister Liz Truss.

Within hours the pound had slumped and the following day the cost of borrowing soared, a sudden and shocking loss of confidence with long-term consequences for government, business and mortgage holders that is still being felt.

This morning, Mr Kwarteng’s successor used the Sunday platform to try to reassure us, and as importantly the markets, that he is going to clean up the mess.

Jeremy Hunt is only six weeks into the job but he spent as many years as health secretary, and his manner was that of a medic with grave news.

The message from Dr Hunt is that while the patient is very ill, there is a cure, but it’s going to hurt.

More on Jeremy Hunt

“We are going to have to increase taxes and cut public spending to show that we are a country that can pay our way,” he told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme.

“I’m afraid we are all going to have to pay more taxes.”

These are not words Conservative chancellors go into the job dreaming of uttering, but they are based on a diagnosis of the economy Mr Hunt shares with Rishi Sunak, not long out of the job himself and by some accounts still trying to do it from No 10.

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‘We’ll be asking everyone for sacrifices’

Mr Kwarteng’s tax cuts left a £60bn gap – a “black hole” in political journalese – in government plans to have borrowing as a share of GDP falling over the next three years.

That calculation matters because it demonstrates that the government has a plan to cover its own costs, rather than endlessly borrow to pay for essential services. That gives confidence to investors which in turn makes it cheaper to borrow in the first place.

It should be said that the size and scope of the black hole is itself a political choice rather than economic truism. Governments set the fiscal rules for themselves and can change them any time they like.

Mr Kwarteng’s problem was he presented a plan that did not add up under the rules he said he was sticking to. The Hunt-Sunak challenge is that economic credibility can only be regained by demonstrating a willingness to fill that gap.

Read more: Sunak’s premiership is about to start for real as he faces a huge week at home and abroad

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Three PMs in three months: A timeline

That means announcing plans that outwardly look like they will hammer earners from all income brackets as well as public services and the people that work in them.

If that is the economic reasoning behind Mr Hunt’s relentlessly austere messaging since he took the job, how and if he achieves it is political.

Having promised in the 2019 Conservative manifesto not to raise any of the main taxes, he is instead likely to freeze the thresholds above which they are paid, meaning over time more people will pay more tax.

(That’s “stealth taxes” in the journalese, “fiscal drag” in economic jargon, and “less money” in the real world.)

As for the spending cuts they are less clear, and may remain so after Thursday’s autumn statement.

Mr Hunt appeared to again commit to increasing pensions in line with inflation under the “triple-lock” but he was explicit that striking nurses will not get an inflation-proof pay deal.

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The rise and fall of Kwasi Kwarteng

Beyond that we wait to see how much detail is offered and how much it means even if it is. Mr Hunt will be setting economic expectations for the next five years, with a forecast for the same period from the Office for Budget Responsibility that investors will read as closely as the autumn statement itself.

But three of those years lie beyond the current parliament, meaning a new government, or as we have seen even a new prime minister, can change course should they choose.

Click to subscribe to the Sophy Ridge on Sunday podcast

So the measures we will hear next week are politically non-binding. Some may even be intended as a trap for Labour, an attempt to commit the opposition to unpopular decisions in advance.

There is little doubt however that the economic peril is real. Inflation is above 10%, the energy crisis continues, and we are in the foothills of a recession that will see interest rates rise further.

And there is no magic cure.

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity. 

It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.

Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.

The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.

The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.

Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.

A child at the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
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A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.

More on Rohingyas

Jaker is just 19.

We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.

He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.

They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.

“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”

And he says the impact has been deadly.

“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”

Jaker speaks to Sky's Cordelia Lynch
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Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch

An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
Image:
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

The situation in Cox’s is desperate.

People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.

In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.

Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.

And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.

Read more from Sky News:
Bangladesh leader reacts to ‘House of Mirrors’ prison
Inside Bangladesh’s ‘death squad’ jails

Sri Lanka rescues more than 100 people believed to be Rohingya refugees

Teknaf in Cox's Bazar - where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
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Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River

Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.

Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.

But not for the military or AA, he says.

Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.

“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.

Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
Image:
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause

It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.

But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.

In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.

Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Image:
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar

Safura's son Aman had his foot blown off
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Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off

Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.

Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.

Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.

They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.

“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”

The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.

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Trump tells Gazans ‘you are dead’ if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

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Trump tells Gazans 'you are dead' if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.

The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.

The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.

In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.

President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress. Pic: AP
Image:
File pic: AP

But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.

Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”

There are “American lives at stake,” she added.

Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.

A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.

Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.

Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters

On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.

“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”

Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.

“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”

Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.

Donald Trump welcomes Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters

The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.

The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.

Palestinians walk among the rubble of buildings, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, February 27, 2025. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
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Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.

Read more:
The competing plans for rebuilding Gaza
Freed Israeli hostage details captivity

Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.

Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.

Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

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Trump admits tariffs ‘disturbance’ as China says it is ‘ready for any type of war’ with US

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Trump admits tariffs 'disturbance' as China says it is 'ready for any type of war' with US

Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.

The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.

Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.

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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pic:Reuters/AP
Image:
Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP

Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.

Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.

Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.

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Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped

Concern over threat to interest rates

A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.

A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.

The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

China imposes retaliatory tariffs

The president, however, said he was “just getting started” after 43 days into his second term.

China and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs against the US.

From next week China will add its own 15% levy on a range of agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.

An extra 10% will be added to soya beans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy products imports.

The country has also raised additional complaints against the US with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Read more:
Beijing’s patience is running thin
‘Dumb’: Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs
Political division in US has never looked like this

Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”

“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast

“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”

“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.

“He’s preparing for war.”

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

Compromise ‘as early as Wednesday’?

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.

He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.

Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”

Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).

But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.

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