The last time a chancellor of the exchequer appeared on the Sunday morning political shows he helped kick the economy off a cliff-edge.
Seven long weeks ago, Kwasi Kwarteng was still revelling in the aftermath of his not-so-mini budget and its promise of unfunded tax cuts, so much so he promised more to come.
It was that intervention, as much as the cavalier non-budget, that helped markets make up their mind about the UK’s direction under Mr Kwarteng and his mayfly prime minister Liz Truss.
Within hours the pound had slumped and the following day the cost of borrowing soared, a sudden and shocking loss of confidence with long-term consequences for government, business and mortgage holders that is still being felt.
This morning, Mr Kwarteng’s successor used the Sunday platform to try to reassure us, and as importantly the markets, that he is going to clean up the mess.
Jeremy Hunt is only six weeks into the job but he spent as many years as health secretary, and his manner was that of a medic with grave news.
The message from Dr Hunt is that while the patient is very ill, there is a cure, but it’s going to hurt.
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“We are going to have to increase taxes and cut public spending to show that we are a country that can pay our way,” he told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme.
“I’m afraid we are all going to have to pay more taxes.”
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These are not words Conservative chancellors go into the job dreaming of uttering, but they are based on a diagnosis of the economy Mr Hunt shares with Rishi Sunak, not long out of the job himself and by some accounts still trying to do it from No 10.
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2:55
‘We’ll be asking everyone for sacrifices’
Mr Kwarteng’s tax cuts left a £60bn gap – a “black hole” in political journalese – in government plans to have borrowing as a share of GDP falling over the next three years.
That calculation matters because it demonstrates that the government has a plan to cover its own costs, rather than endlessly borrow to pay for essential services. That gives confidence to investors which in turn makes it cheaper to borrow in the first place.
It should be said that the size and scope of the black hole is itself a political choice rather than economic truism. Governments set the fiscal rules for themselves and can change them any time they like.
Mr Kwarteng’s problem was he presented a plan that did not add up under the rules he said he was sticking to. The Hunt-Sunak challenge is that economic credibility can only be regained by demonstrating a willingness to fill that gap.
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6:39
Three PMs in three months: A timeline
That means announcing plans that outwardly look like they will hammer earners from all income brackets as well as public services and the people that work in them.
If that is the economic reasoning behind Mr Hunt’s relentlessly austere messaging since he took the job, how and if he achieves it is political.
Having promised in the 2019 Conservative manifesto not to raise any of the main taxes, he is instead likely to freeze the thresholds above which they are paid, meaning over time more people will pay more tax.
(That’s “stealth taxes” in the journalese, “fiscal drag” in economic jargon, and “less money” in the real world.)
As for the spending cuts they are less clear, and may remain so after Thursday’s autumn statement.
Mr Hunt appeared to again commit to increasing pensions in line with inflation under the “triple-lock” but he was explicit that striking nurses will not get an inflation-proof pay deal.
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1:58
The rise and fall of Kwasi Kwarteng
Beyond that we wait to see how much detail is offered and how much it means even if it is. Mr Hunt will be setting economic expectations for the next five years, with a forecast for the same period from the Office for Budget Responsibility that investors will read as closely as the autumn statement itself.
But three of those years lie beyond the current parliament, meaning a new government, or as we have seen even a new prime minister, can change course should they choose.
So the measures we will hear next week are politically non-binding. Some may even be intended as a trap for Labour, an attempt to commit the opposition to unpopular decisions in advance.
There is little doubt however that the economic peril is real. Inflation is above 10%, the energy crisis continues, and we are in the foothills of a recession that will see interest rates rise further.
Pope Francis, 88, had spent five weeks in Rome’s Gemelli hospital as he was treated by doctors for a life-threatening bout of double pneumonia.
The Pope, in what was a previously unannounced move, entered St Peter’s Square in a wheelchair shortly before noon local time at the end of the celebration of a mass for the Catholic Church’s Jubilee year.
Image: The pontiff arrives at the end of a mass. Pic: AP
In front of the main altar for the service, Francis waved to applauding crowds, before briefly talking.
Speaking in a frail voice while receiving oxygen via a small hose under his nose, he said: “Happy Sunday to everyone. Thank you so much.”
A message prepared by the Pope and released by the Vatican said he felt the “caring touch” of God.
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“On the day of the jubilee of the sick and the world of healthcare, I ask the Lord that this touch of his love may reach those who suffer and encourage those who care for them,” said the message.
“And I pray for doctors, nurses and health workers, who are not always helped to work in adequate conditions and are sometimes even victims of aggression.”
The IDF says it mistakenly identified a convoy of aid workers as a threat – following the emergence of a video which proved their ambulances were clearly marked when Israeli troops opened fire on them.
The bodies of 15 aid workers – including eight medics working for the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) – were found in a “mass grave” after the incident, according to the head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Jonathan Whittall.
The Israeli military originally claimed an investigation found the vehicles did not have any headlights or emergency signals and were therefore targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
But video footage obtained by the PRCS, and verified by Sky News, showed the ambulances and a fire vehicle clearly marked with flashing red lights.
In a briefing from the IDF, it said the ambulances arrived in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah shortly after a Hamas police vehicle drove through.
Image: Palestinians mourning the medics after their bodies were recovered. Pic: Reuters
An IDF surveillance aircraft was watching the movement of the ambulances and notified troops on the ground. The IDF said it will not be releasing that footage.
When the ambulances arrived, the soldiers opened fire, thinking the medics were a threat, according to the IDF.
The soldiers were surprised by the convoy stopping on the road and several people getting out quickly and running, the IDF claimed, adding the soldiers were unaware the suspects were in fact unarmed medics.
An Israeli military official would not say how far away troops were when they fired on the vehicles.
The IDF acknowledged that its statement claiming that the ambulances had their lights off was incorrect, and was based on the testimony from the soldiers in the incident.
The newly emerged video footage showed that the ambulances were clearly identifiable and had their lights on, the IDF said.
The IDF added that there will be a re-investigation to look into this discrepancy.
Image: The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen – with three red light vehicles visible in front
Addressing the fact the aid workers’ bodies were buried in a mass grave, the IDF said in its briefing this is an approved and regular practice to prevent wild dogs and other animals from eating the corpses.
The IDF could not explain why the ambulances were also buried.
The IDF said six of the 15 people killed were linked to Hamas, but revealed no detail to support the claim.
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1:22
Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
The newly emerged footage of the incident was discovered on a phone belonging to one of the workers who was killed, PRCS president Dr Younis Al Khatib said.
“His phone was found with his body and he recorded the whole event,” he said. “His last words before being shot, ‘Forgive me, mom. I just wanted to help people. I wanted to save lives’.”
Sky News used an aftermath video and satellite imagery to verify the location and timing of the newly emerged footage of the incident.
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2:43
Aid worker attacks increasing
It was filmed on 23 March north of Rafah and shows a convoy of marked ambulances and a fire-fighting vehicle travelling south along a road towards the city centre. All the vehicles visible in the convoy have their flashing lights on.
The footage was filmed early in the morning, with a satellite image seen by Sky News taken at 9.48am local time on the same day showing a group of vehicles bunched together off the road.
Contemplating the turmoil sown by the return of President Trump, nobody could deny that the results of leadership elections in major nations matter to the rest of the world.
Take just the members of the G7 – so-called rich, industrialised democracies. Italy elected Giorgia Meloni in 2022, confirming the rise of the far-right. She was not only Italy’s first female leader, she was also the first from a neo-fascist party since Mussolini.
Barring accidents, the next potentially transformative election in what used to be called the “Western alliance” will not be for two years.
France is due to elect a new president to succeed Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2027. The contest is already plagued by undercurrents of disruption, conflict between politicians and the law, and populism – similar to the fires burning elsewhere in the US and Europe.
This week French judges banned the frontrunner to win the presidency from running for office for the next five years. It looked as though they have knocked Marine Le Pen out of the race.
Nobody, least of all her, the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), knows what is going to happen next in French politics.
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In opinion polls just over half of the French population, between 54% and 57%, agreed that justice had run its course. “The law is the same for everyone,” President Macron declared.
After lengthy consideration by a tribunal of three judges, Le Pen and nine other former RN MEPs were found guilty of illegally siphoning off some €4.4m (£3.7m) of funds from the European Parliament for political operations in France, not for personal gain.
Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban and four years in prison, not to begin before the appeals process had been concluded. Even then that sentence in France would normally amount to two years’ house arrest wearing an ankle alarm.
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2:52
Marine Le Pen hits out at ban
French presidents, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have been convicted before. Controversy is flaring because Le Pen was given an extra punishment: the immediate ban on running for political office, starting this week.
Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, her second in command at RN, likened the ban to a “nuclear bomb” and a “political death penalty”. Speaking in L’Assemblee Nationale, of which she is still a member, Le Pen identified herself with Alexei Navalny, the dissident leader murdered in Russia, and Ekrem Imamoglu, the recently imprisoned Turkish opposition leader and mayor of Istanbul.
The ban was imposed at the discretion of the chief judge Benedicte de Perthuis, a former business consultant, Francois Bayrou, France’s Macronist prime minister admitted he was “troubled” by the verdict. Not surprisingly perhaps from him, since the prosecution is appealing against verdicts in a similar case of political embezzlement, in which Bayrou’s party was found guilty but he was acquitted, escaping any possibility of a ban.
Bayrou is expected to be a candidate for the presidency. Meanwhile, RN has the power to bring down his government since it is the largest party in the Assembly, with 37%, but was kept out of power by a coalition.
Image: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. File pic: AP
Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic rushed to support Marine Le Pen. Matteo Salvini in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Vladimir Putin‘s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov all denounced what they saw as a “violation of democratic norms”. Hungary’s Viktor Orban said on X “Je suis Marine Le Pen”. Orban’s post came on the same platform Donald Trump Jr posted that “JD Vance was right about everything”, a reference to the US vice president’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he claimed Europe was silencing populist opposition.
President Trump weighed in: “The Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech… it is the same ‘playbook’ that was used against me.”
Le Pen has called for bans and tough sentences for corrupt politicians from other parties. In France, mainstream commentators are accusing her of hypocrisy and “Trumpisme” for attacking the courts now.
They also allege, or rather hope, that RN’s anger is endangering Marine Le Pen’s drive to make her party respectable with her so-called “wear a neck-tie strategy”, designed to dispel the loutish, racist image of her father’s Front National.
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0:26
Le Pen leaves court after guilty verdict
For all the protests, justice and politics are now inextricably mixed in France. A ban from political campaigning would be pointless for most convicts, who have no political ambitions.
Any suggestion that Le Pen was just being treated like any other citizen was dispelled when it was announced that her appeal would be speeded up to take place next summer. The president of the court de cassation conceded: “Justice knows how to adjust to circumstances… an election deadline in this case.”
The ban could be lifted in time to give Le Pen a year to stand for the presidency. At this stage, a full acquittal seems unlikely, given the weight of evidence against RN. That is awkward for her and her party because, presumably, she would be campaigning while under house arrest.
The best course of action for 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s apparent successor, or “Dauphin”, would be to stick with her now. He would gain little if he split RN by insisting she is fatally wounded.
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If she loses her appeal in a year’s time, his loyalty and indignation would be likely to boost his candidacy. Conventional wisdom is that without a lift he may be slick, but is too callow and too square to stand a chance of becoming president in 2027.
The far right in France is no different from the far right elsewhere – prone to internal rivalries and in-fighting.
The craggy intellectual Eric Zemmour came fourth in the first round in the last presidential contest in 2022. Back then he had the support of Marion Marechal-Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s flighty niece. The two have since fallen out and may separately bid to carry the far-right torch.
Macron is riding high as an international statesman but he is unpopular at home. Even if he wanted to, he cannot stand again because of term limits.
His attempts to spawn an heir apparent have failed. The 34-year-old prime minister Gabriel Attal led Ensemble to crushing defeat in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Current prime minister Bayrou, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe, will probably make a bid for the centre-right vote. Bruno Retailleau, the trenchantly hardline interior minister, looks a stronger candidate for the Gaullist Les Republicains.
In the last presidential contest, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard-left La France Insoumise came third. He may fancy his chances of getting into the final two in 2027 against a right-wing candidate, unless the Socialists get it together. Or perhaps he may let through two finalists from the right and the extreme right.
It is a mess.
France and Europe need effective leadership from a French president. The unnecessary judicial suspension of Marine Le Pen’s candidacy has simply generated uncertainty. Her supporters are outraged and her foes no longer know who they are fighting against.
The French establishment thinks it will all blow over. Just as likely the controversy in France will strengthen the populist winds blowing across the continent and the US.