MLB Awards Week: Predictions and everything you need to know about MVP, Cy Young and more
With the World Series in our rearview mirror — though the champion Astros are surely still reveling in their victory — the 2022 season is all but done, with one final piece left: awards!
The winners of MLB’s four major end-of-season awards — Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player — will be announced starting at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network each day this week.
Unlike last year, when none of the MVP candidates reached the postseason, five of this year’s six finalists made the playoffs — with last year’s AL MVP, Shohei Ohtani, once again left out of October. Of the six, just one appeared in the Fall Classic (and won) — Yordan Alvarez. The AL’s MVP race is, unsurprisingly, led by none other than Aaron Judge, while the NL’s race features two teammates — Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado — vying for the honors.
And the fun doesn’t stop there, as there’s lots to be excited about in the other races, too. At 39 years old, Justin Verlander could secure the third Cy Young of his career on Wednesday, while on the other hand, Sandy Alcantara could make Marlins franchise history if he wins the Cy Young in the NL.
We have everything you need to know for awards week — previewing each award in addition to our ESPN MLB experts’ predictions for who should take home the hardware. Be sure to check back throughout the week as this page is updated with results and analysis as each award is handed out.
Jump to … :
Rookie of the Year: NL | AL
Manager of the Year: NL | AL
Cy Young: NL | AL
MVP: NL | AL
National League Rookie of the Year
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Harris (8 votes), Strider (5)
What to know: The Braves took off in June when they called up Harris from Double-A to play center field and moved Strider from the bullpen to the rotation — and the pair proved to be one of the great rookie tandems in recent memory. Indeed, they’re likely to finish 1-2 in the balloting, and only three teammates have done that since ranked voting began in 1980: Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman of the Braves in 2011, Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith of the Cubs in 1989, and Alvin Davis and Mark Langston of the Mariners in 1984.
Though he played just 43 games above High-A, the Braves knew Harris could handle the defensive chores, but his offense was what surprised when his power took off in the majors. He hit .297/.337/.514 with 19 home runs, adding 20 steals in 22 attempts for a superlative all-around season. Harris’ 5.3 bWAR made him just the 34th rookie position player with 5.0 WAR since the divisional era began in 1969 — and with 114 games played, he had the fewest games of any player on the list.
Strider was a dominant force with his upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider, striking out 202 batters in just 131 2/3 innings, making him the 10th rookie since 1969 with 200 strikeouts and the first since Yu Darvish in 2012. Along the way, he held batters to a .180 average and finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA.
Donovan wasn’t viewed as a top prospect entering 2022, but he came up in late April and had a terrific season as a utility player, starting at six different positions while hitting .281/.394/.379 and winning a Gold Glove. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, he finished seventh in the majors in on-base percentage.
Our expert predictions give the nod to Harris, and historical precedent does usually favor the position player over the pitcher in a close race. No matter who wins, Braves fans should enjoy the pair for a long time: Harris signed what could end up as a 10-year extension while Strider signed what could be a seven-year extension. — David Schoenfield
ROY must-reads: 10 rookies about to take this year’s postseason by storm
American League Rookie of the Year
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Rodriguez (12 votes), Rutschman (1)
What to know: The American League field was so deep that postseason hero Jeremy Pena of the Astros couldn’t even crack the final three. Rodriguez (6.2), Kwan (5.5) and Rutschman (5.2) each topped 5.0 WAR, making this just the second time since Jackie Robinson won the first Rookie of the Year in 1947 that three position players from the same league reached that mark (joining the AL trio of Mark McGwire, Kevin Seitzer and Devon White in 1987).
Rodriguez is the overwhelming favorite, which is no knock on the seasons from Kwan and Rutschman. Rodriguez hit .284/.345/.509 with 28 home runs and 25 stolen bases, making him just the third rookie to go 25/25, joining Mike Trout and Chris Young. Beyond the numbers, Rodriguez also showcased the “it” factor with a high-energy, enthusiastic style of play, reminiscent of another former young Mariners center fielder (who did not win Rookie of the Year).
Rutschman might have had a better chance to win if he hadn’t suffered a triceps strain in spring training, which delayed his debut until May 21 — not coincidentally, right about when the Orioles started to go on their surprising run. He hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs and excellent defense and leadership. His superb approach at the plate (65 walks, 86 strikeouts) is a huge plus and should allow for improved offense in the future. Indeed, both he and Rodriguez have MVP-level ceilings.
Kwan gained attention when he went 5-for-5 in the third game of the season and, really, never stopped hitting, finishing at .298 and winning a Gold Glove in left field. Kwan and Rutschman were teammates at Oregon State — and, yes, the Beavers won the College World Series with them in 2018. — Schoenfield
ROY must-reads: How Julio Rodriguez became the Mariners’ $470 million man
National League Manager of the Year
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Showalter (6 votes), Snitker (5), Roberts (1), Philadelphia Phillies’ Rob Thomson (1)
What to know: This looks like a toss-up, especially given that Roberts’ Dodgers won 111 games — most in the National League since 1906 — and he rates as third favorite on the board. It was the fourth time Roberts has won at least 104 games, although his one Manager of the Year award came in 2016, when the Dodgers won just 91 games.
He probably won’t win this year, because as dominant as the Dodgers were in the regular season (remember, voting is done before the playoffs), the Mets and Braves perhaps had more compelling storylines. Showalter took over a Mets team coming off a 77-85 season and guided it to 101 wins and its first playoff trip since 2016. He brought some professionalism to a team that needed it, cleaned up the defense and the little things, and had all that success even though Jacob deGrom didn’t start a game until August. Snitker, who won this award in 2018, guided the Braves to their fifth straight division title — rallying from 10.5 games down on June 1 and sweeping the Mets the final week of the season to wrap up the division. — Schoenfield
MOY must-reads: ‘The golden age of Dodger baseball’? L.A. sets franchise wins record — again — but has just one ring
American League Manager of the Year
Finalists:
-
Terry Francona, Cleveland Guardians
-
Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles
-
Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners
Experts’ picks: Hyde (6 votes), Francona (6), Houston Astros’ Dusty Baker (1)
What to know: Baker, of course, finished as the real manager of the year after ending his personal World Series drought in his 25th season as a manager, but he’s not even a finalist. This is a two-man race between Hyde and Francona, as the Orioles and Guardians were perhaps the two biggest surprises of 2022.
In his fourth season with the Orioles, Hyde’s team improved from 52 wins to 83, one of the biggest single-season improvements in history, staying in the playoff race until late in the season. Wins over expectation is usually a guiding principle in this award, and that should help Hyde. Francona’s advantage is the Guardians did make the playoffs, winning the AL Central with a 92-70 record — a 12-game improvement, impressive for a team that had both the youngest lineup and the youngest pitching staff in the majors. Francona’s ability to work with young players continues to be an impressive strength and could win him his third MOY award. — Schoenfield
MOY must-reads:
How the Guardians turned the AL Central race into a one-team sprint
How the Orioles — yes, the Baltimore Orioles — became the hottest team in MLB
National League Cy Young
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Alcantara (13 votes) (unanimous choice)
What to know: This looks like a possible unanimous victory for Alcantara. He went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and led the majors with 228 2/3 innings and six complete games. No, those last two numbers wouldn’t stand out even a decade ago, but that was the most innings by a starter since David Price in 2016 and 23 innings more than any other pitcher in 2022. Alcantara went at least eight innings in 14 of his 32 starts, and his 8.0 bWAR gave him a sizable lead over Aaron Nola’s 6.0, the second-highest total among NL pitchers.
Urias did end up leading the NL with a 2.16 ERA, but he pitched just 175 innings in 31 starts — a good example of how many more innings Alcantara delivered than even a Cy Young finalist like Urias. Alcantara’s season is also even more impressive since 23 of those 32 starts came against .500-or-better teams. Fried, by comparison, made 17 of his 30 starts against winning teams, while Urias made 16 of 31 — although he was an impressive 11-3 with a 1.45 ERA in those 16 games. Still, this one is all Alcantara, who will become the first Marlins pitcher to win a Cy Young Award (Kevin Brown finished second in 1996). — Schoenfield
Cy Young must-reads: How Julio Urias became the Dodgers’ ace — and maybe their closer
American League Cy Young
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Verlander (12 votes), Cease (1)
What to know: This is what you call a comeback season. After blowing out his elbow one start into 2020 and undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander returned at age 39 after missing two seasons and went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, leading the AL in wins and ERA. You lead the league in those two categories and you’re the heavy favorite to win the Cy Young Award, but Verlander also led the majors in lowest batting average allowed (.186), lowest OBP allowed (.227) and lowest slugging percentage allowed (.270).
Cease (14-8, 2.20 ERA, 227 strikeouts) and Manoah (16-7, 2.24 ERA, 196 2/3 innings) are certainly two of the up-and-coming young starters in the game. Indeed, there are arguments to be made for both. Cease led AL pitchers with 6.4 bWAR, although Verlander and Manoah weren’t far behind at 5.9 (and non-finalist Shohei Ohtani was at 6.2). Manoah pitched 21 more innings than Verlander, which is important, and did it pitching in the league’s toughest division (and had a 1.90 ERA in division games). Still, this looks like Verlander’s year and his third Cy Young Award, after wins in 2011 and 2019 (and three runner-up finishes in between). — Schoenfield
Cy Young must-reads:
The fall of the starting pitcher — and one young ace who signifies hope for the future
From Tommy John to Cy Young form at 39? Inside Justin Verlander’s unprecedented return to dominance
National League MVP
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Goldschmidt (6 votes), Machado (4), Arenado (3)
What to know: Goldschmidt had been the heavy favorite after hitting .404/.471/.817 with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in May and remaining hot … at least until September, when he finally slumped, hitting .245 with two home runs. By then, however, the Cardinals were cruising to a division title and the Goldschmidt MVP storyline seemed etched in stone. But as our expert picks suggest, maybe it isn’t such a sure thing. Arenado (7.9) actually topped Goldschmidt (7.8) in bWAR, although the difference there is insignificant. Machado (7.4), meanwhile, led in FanGraphs WAR over Arenado’s 7.3 and Goldschmidt’s 7.1.
Goldschmidt was the best hitter in the NL, finishing at .317/.404/.578 with 35 home runs and 115 RBIs, so support for Arenado and Machado centers around the value their defense brings and those WAR totals that ended up pretty even. Goldschmidt led the NL in win probability added (Machado was second) while Arenado wasn’t in the top 10, but some of the other clutch numbers favor Arenado: He had a .988 OPS in high-leverage situations (Goldschmidt was at .895) and .864 in “late and close” situations (Goldschmidt was at .789).
MVP voters have certainly focused on a player’s WAR more and more over the past decade, so that should make this a split vote, but in a close race, it usually seems to go to the best hitter and that’s Goldschmidt. He has had two runner-up MVP finishes and one third place, but at 34 years old, I think he finally wins. — Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
‘It’s my prime, baby’: Why Manny Machado is the best he’s ever been at age 30
American League MVP
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Judge (12 votes), Ohtani (1)
What to know: You might have heard about this one. Ohtani went 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts as a pitcher. As mentioned above, his 6.2 pitching bWAR was second in the AL and he’ll probably finish fourth in the Cy Young voting. As a hitter, he hit .273/.356/.519 with 34 home runs and 95 RBIs, good enough for the fifth-highest OPS in the AL. So you have a top-five pitcher and a top-five hitter. That is a superhero season.
And somehow not epic enough. Judge’s season was also historic: 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, 133 runs, .425 OBP, .686 slugging. He led the AL in all those categories, most in dominant fashion, doing it in a season when offense was at its lowest levels since 2015. It was the best offensive season since peak Barry Bonds, and if you don’t want to include Bonds, you have to go back to Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams in the 1950s. Judge finished with 10.6 bWAR compared to Ohtani’s pitching-plus-hitting total of 9.6. Of course, the way WAR is constructed, it gives Ohtani a positional penalty, since he was a DH. Maybe you can argue that isn’t fair, since Ohtani obviously plays another position — pitcher.
Still, we can add up the numbers and leave position out of this: Ohtani produced an estimated 31 runs more than an average hitter and saved 40 runs compared to an average pitcher, for a combined total of 71 runs; Judge produced an estimated 80 runs more than average hitter. That’s how good he was at the plate: Better than the combined value of Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter. And that’s why Judge’s MVP award will be a deserving honor. — Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
The road to 62: How Aaron Judge made home run history in 2022
Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani: How to compare two radically different MVP contenders
‘This guy, he’s different’: What it’s like to watch Yordan Alvarez up close
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — NASCAR went before a federal judge Wednesday and asked for the antitrust suit filed against the stock car series to be dismissed. Should it proceed, NASCAR asked that the two teams suing be ordered to post a bond to cover fees they would not be legally owed if they lose the case.
NASCAR also asked U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell of the Western District of North Carolina to dismiss chairman Jim France as a defendant in the suit filed by 23XI Racing, a team co-owned by NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, which is owned by entrepreneur Bob Jenkins.
Bell promised a fast ruling but indicated he was unlikely to dismiss the suit when he closed the 90-minute hearing. The calendar he set when he received the case last month calls for a December trial.
“This case is going to be tried this year, and deserves to be tried this year,” Bell said.
Bell replaced Judge Frank Whitney, who heard the first round of arguments in early November. The teams went before Whitney and asked to be recognized as chartered teams this year as the suit progresses, but Whitney denied the motion.
The teams appealed and the case was transferred to Bell, who overruled Whitney and granted an injunction that allow 23XI and Front Row to compete with charter recognition throughout the 2025 season. That led NASCAR to request the teams post a bond to cover all the payouts they will receive as chartered teams as collateral should the teams lose the case.
NASCAR and the teams that compete in the top Cup Series operate with a franchise system that was implemented in 2016 in which 36 cars have “charters” that guarantee them a spot in the field at every race and financial incentives. There are four “open” spots earmarked for the field each week.
The teams banded together in negotiations on an improved charter system in a contentious battle with NASCAR for nearly two years. NASCAR in September finally had enough and presented the teams with a take-it-or-leave-it offer that had to be signed same day — just 48 hours before the start of the playoffs.
23XI and Front Row were the only two teams out of 15 who refused to sign the new charter agreement. They then teamed together to sue NASCAR and France, arguing as the only stock car entity in the United States, NASCAR has a monopoly and the teams are not getting their fair share of the pie.
Both organizations maintained they would still compete as open cars, but convinced Bell last month to give them chartered status by arguing they would suffer irreparable harm as open cars. Among the claims was that 23XI driver Tyler Reddick, last year’s regular season champion, would contractually become an immediate free agent if the team did not have him in a guaranteed chartered car.
Bell peppered both sides with questions regarding payout structures, what harm NASCAR would suffer if the teams were open cars and other issues.
“Why give a charter to anyone?” he at one point asked NASCAR.
Replied NASCAR attorney Christopher Yates, of Latham & Watkins: “NASCAR would be perfectly fine going back to that (pre-charter) model.”
Bell admitted he doesn’t normally hear motions to dismiss but did Wednesday because “we’ve got to get this case moving.” He later said he felt the hearing was beneficial as he was able to “size up” the attorneys and they could do the same with him.
Bell also warned both sides to work together to avoid disputes and promised the losing side will pay the fees for the discovery portion of the case.
With all indications that Bell is not going to dismiss the suit, it appears the only suspense will be if he orders the teams to post bond before the season begins next month. NASCAR argued Wednesday that it needs that money earmarked because it would be redistributed to the chartered teams if 23XI and Front Row lose.
Jeffery Kessler, considered the top antitrust lawyer in the country, argued that NASCAR has made no such promise to redistribute the funds to other teams. Kessler said NASCAR told teams it was up to NASCAR’s discretion how it would use the money and didn’t rule out spending some on its own legal fees.
Jordan and Jenkins attended the first hearing but were not present Wednesday. Only 23XI co-owner Denny Hamlin was present, along with his fiancee and mother. France and vice chairman Mike Helton were in the gallery with NASCAR’s in-house legal counsel and members of the communications team.
-
Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
DANIA BEACH, Fla. — While discussing the opportunity that awaits Penn State in the College Football Playoff, coach James Franklin said Wednesday that the showdown against Notre Dame is about “representing our schools and our conferences.”
Franklin then caught himself, realizing Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman was sitting just to his right.
“Or our conference, excuse me,” Franklin said.
Penn State will be representing the Big Ten against FBS independent Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Nittany Lions reached the Big Ten championship game before earning a No. 6 seed in the first 12-team CFP, while the Fighting Irish made the playoff as an at-large and earned the No. 7 seed despite playing in one fewer game.
Franklin said he thinks a larger CFP ultimately requires more uniformity around college football, including every team to be part of a conference and playing the same number of league games. Notre Dame, one of three remaining FBS independents, sees its status as central to the school’s identity and has resisted chances to join the Big Ten and other conferences over the years. The Fighting Irish compete in the ACC for most of their other major sports, and they have a scheduling agreement with the ACC in football.
“It should be consistent across college football,” Franklin said. “This is no knock at [Freeman] or Notre Dame, but I think everybody should be in a conference. I think everybody should play a conference championship game, or nobody should play a conference champion championship game. I think everybody should play the same number of conference games.”
Penn State reached the CFP by playing nine conference games as well as the Big Ten championship game against No. 1 Oregon, which defeated the Nittany Lions 45-37 on Dec. 7. The Big 12 also has maintained a nine-game league slate, while the SEC and ACC have stayed at eight conference games.
Franklin, who coached at Vanderbilt before Penn State, praised the SEC for remaining at eight league games, which the league’s coaches wanted. The SEC has repeatedly considered going to nine league games during Franklin’s time in the Big Ten.
“I was not a math major at East Stroudsburg, but just the numbers are going to make things more challenging if you’re playing one more conference game,” he said.
Franklin also highlighted other areas of the sport that could be made more uniform, including starting the season a week earlier to ease the strain of playing more games with an expanded playoff. He reiterated his desire to appoint a college football commissioner unaffiliated with a school or a conference, and once again mentioned longtime coach and current ESPN analyst Nick Saban as an option, along with former Washington and Boise State coach Chris Petersen, now a Fox college football analyst, and Dave Clawson, who recently stepped down as Wake Forest’s coach.
“We need somebody that is looking at it from a big-picture perspective,” Franklin said.
Freeman acknowledged that Notre Dame prides itself on its independence. He said the team uses the weekend of conference championships, when they’re guaranteed not to be playing, as another open week for recovery and other priorities.
Notre Dame ended the regular season Nov. 30 and did not play again until Dec. 20, when it hosted Indiana in a first-round CFP game. In helping craft the format for the 12-team CFP, former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick agreed that if the Irish were selected, they would not be eligible to earn a bye into the quarterfinals.
Freeman noted that he doesn’t have a strong opinion on whether college football needs more uniformity.
“I’m a guy that just [thinks], ‘Tell us what we’re doing and let’s go, and you move forward,'” Freeman said. “I love where we’re at right now. [Athletic director] Pete Bevacqua and our Notre Dame administration will continue to make decisions that are best for our program.”
Franklin said his desire for greater consistency stems from the CFP selection process and the difficulty of committee members to sort through teams with vastly different paths and profiles, and determine strength of schedule and other factors.
“How do you put those people that are in that room to make a really important decision that impacts the landscape of college football, and they can’t compare apples to apples or oranges to oranges?” Franklin said. “I think that makes it very, very difficult.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway