Rishi Sunak will this week kick off his premiership for real, with an international summit in Indonesia that will give a taster of his approach to foreign policy and an economic statement back in London that will define the early months of his government – for good or ill.
On Monday, Mr Sunak will arrive at theG20 summit in Indonesia, where the new PM will impress upon fellow world leaders his style and his policy priorities.
On style, Mr Sunak has signalled a change in approach. Gone is the combative, sometimes abrasive approach of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss – you might remember when she joked that the “jury was out” on whether French President Emmanuel Macron was a friend or foe – in favour of a more cordial and collaborative approach.
The prime minister made a point of calling President Macron a friend and seeking a bilateral summit with him at COP27 in Egypt last week in a meeting that was described as “very warm”.
Ask his team, and the focus for the prime minister will be to “call out Putin’s regime” while working with allies on global economic challenges.
But beyond “cementing relationships” with allies, what’s Mr Sunak’s vision for Britain’s foreign policy?
While Mr Johnson and Ms Truss had both been foreign secretaries before becoming prime minister, Mr Sunak has only ever politically focused on the domestic brief. What he thinks about foreign policy and Britain’s place in the world is not something this politician has ever been asked to flesh out, why would he? His main job in government before taking the top seat was dealing with the government’s economic response to the COVID crisis.
So it follows that the PM will try to flex economic credentials as a route into foreign policy, as leading nations grapple with spiking energy prices and inflation triggered in part by the war in Ukraine.
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There is a model for this approach: remember how Gordon Brown used his experience as chancellor on the global stage at the G20 summit in 2009 in London to agree a package of aid for the world economy.
Image: Ministers and heads of delegates attend the G20 finance and health ministers meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia
Call for ‘decisive action’
Mr Sunak is untested and relatively inexperienced – he was chancellor for just two years – but he at least has a level of fiscal credibility to contribute to discussions.
But Mr Sunak will have an eye on events in London as his chancellor puts the finishing touches on this autumn statement. His team have been keen to highlight the direct link between the global economy and the challenges back home.
Image: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt meet ahead of the autumn statement. Pic: HM Treasury
One No 10 official says the new PM will use the G20 to talk about “economic vision with partners, calling for coordinated and decisive action to address the current difficulties which will ultimately benefit the people of the UK”.
This summit is, in a way, a good opportunity for the prime minister to try to lay some of his own economic woes – exacerbated by Ms Truss’s disastrous mini-budget – at the feet of President Putin.
‘It’s going to be very, very tricky’
But his team are in no doubt that the autumn statement next Thursday could be the moment where it gets very bumpy for Mr Sunak as he lays bare the scale of the economic challenge and the extent of tax rises and spending cuts coming our way.
Estimates put the UK’s budgetary hole at around £55bn which Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will look to fill through a combination of squeezing government spending and raising taxes.
This is going to be very difficult territory for Mr Sunak and his chancellor. The prime minister is already deeply unpopular with a chunk of his party for taking the UK’s tax burden to a 70-year high, and this is an attack line which mortally wounded Mr Sunak in the July leadership race.
Further tax rises could whip up the simmering resentment in the party for him and his programme, while the spending squeeze risks further agitating a very disillusioned public.
“It’s going to be very, very tricky,” is how one key ally put it to me this week. “It’s got to be seen as fair [in terms of sharing the burden] and the hope is that it will be received neutrally.”
This will be a huge week for an untested prime minister in which we’ll get a better taster of how he’ll be received abroad as well as how he intends to lead at home. A lot rides on the seven days.
Although close to Russia geographically – less than three miles away at the narrowest point – it’s a very long way from neutral ground.
The expectation was they would meet somewhere in the middle. Saudi Arabia perhaps, or the United Arab Emirates. But no, Vladimir Putin will be travelling to Donald Trump’s backyard.
It’ll be the first time the Russian president has visited the US since September 2015, when he spoke at the UN General Assembly. Barack Obama was in the White House. How times have changed a decade on.
The US is not a member of the International Criminal Court, so there’s no threat of arrest for Vladimir Putin.
But to allow his visit to happen, the US Treasury Department will presumably have to lift sanctions on the Kremlin leader, as it did when his investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev flew to Washington in April.
And I think that points to one reason why Putin would agree to a summit in Alaska.
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Instead of imposing sanctions on Russia, as Trump had threatened in recent days, the US would be removing one. Even if only temporary, it would be hugely symbolic and a massive victory for Moscow.
The American leader might think he owns the optics – the peace-making president ordering a belligerent aggressor to travel to his home turf – but the visuals more than work for Putin too.
Shunned by the West since his invasion, this would signal an emphatic end to his international isolation.
Donald Trump has said a ceasefire deal is close. The details are still unclear but there are reports it could involve Ukraine surrendering territory, something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has always adamantly opposed.
Either way, Putin will have what he wants – the chance to carve up his neighbour without Kyiv being at the table.
And that’s another reason why Putin would agree to a summit, regardless of location. Because it represents a real possibility of achieving his goals.
It’s not just about territory for Russia. It also wants permanent neutrality for Ukraine and limits to its armed forces – part of a geopolitical strategy to prevent NATO expansion.
In recent months, despite building US pressure, Moscow has shown no intention of stopping the war until those demands are met.
It may be that Vladimir Putin thinks a summit with Donald Trump offers the best chance of securing them.
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The UK and four allies have criticised Israel’s decision to launch a new large-scale military operation in Gaza – warning it will “aggravate the catastrophic humanitarian situation” in the territory.
The foreign ministers of Britain, Australia, Germany, Italy and New Zealand said in a joint statement that the offensive will “endanger the lives of hostages” and “risk violating international humanitarian law”.
It marks another escalation in the war in Gaza, sparked by the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023.
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2:20
Can Netanyahu defeat Hamas ideology?
In their joint statement, the UK and its allies said they “strongly reject” the decision, adding: “It will endanger the lives of the hostages and further risk the mass displacement of civilians.
“The plans that the government of Israel has announced risk violating international humanitarian law. Any attempts at annexation or of settlement extension violate international law.”
The countries also called for a permanent ceasefire as “the worst-case scenario of famine is unfolding in Gaza”.
In a post on X, the Israeli prime minister’s office added: “Instead of supporting Israel’s just war against Hamas, which carried out the most horrific attack against the Jewish people since the Holocaust, Germany is rewarding Hamas terrorism by embargoing arms to Israel.”
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2:33
Inside plane dropping aid over Gaza
US ambassador hits out at Starmer
Earlier on Friday, the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, criticised Sir Keir Starmer after he said Israel’s decision to “escalate its offensive” in Gaza is “wrong”.
Mr Huckabee wrote on X: “So Israel is expected to surrender to Hamas & feed them even though Israeli hostages are being starved? Did UK surrender to Nazis and drop food to them? Ever heard of Dresden, PM Starmer? That wasn’t food you dropped. If you had been PM then UK would be speaking German!”
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In another post around an hour later Mr Huckabee wrote: “How much food has Starmer and the UK sent to Gaza?
“@IsraeliPM has already sent 2 MILLION TONS into Gaza & none of it even getting to hostages.”
Sir Keir has pledged to recognise a Palestinian state in September unless the Israeli government meets a series of conditions towards ending the war in Gaza.
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1:22
Lammy-Vance bromance: Will it last?
Mr Vance described a “disagreement” about how the US and UK could achieve their “common objectives” in the Middle East, and said the Trump administration had “no plans to recognise a Palestinian state”.
He said: “I don’t know what it would mean to really recognise a Palestinian state given the lack of functional government there.”
Mr Vance added: “There’s a lot of common objectives here. There is some, I think, disagreement about how exactly to accomplish those common objectives, but look, it’s a tough situation.”
The UN Security Council will meet on Saturday to discuss the situation in the Middle East.
Ambassador Riyad Mansour, permanent observer of the State of Palestine to the United Nations, said earlier on Friday that a number of countries would be requesting a meeting of the UN Security Council on Israel’s plans.