‘We will see spectacular failures’: CEOs and investors on what the end of cheap money means for tech
Guillaume Pousaz, CEO and founder of payment platform Checkout.com, speaking onstage at the 2022 Web Summit tech conference.
Horacio Villalobos | Getty Images
LISBON, Portugal — Once high-flying tech unicorns are now having their wings clipped as the era of easy money comes to an end.
That was the message from the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal, earlier this month. Startup founders and investors took to the stage to warn fellow entrepreneurs that it was time to rein in costs and focus on fundamentals.
“What’s for sure is that the landscape of fundraising has changed,” Guillaume Pousaz, CEO of London-based payments software company Checkout.com, said in a panel moderated by CNBC.
Last year, a small team could share a PDF deck with investors and receive $6 million in seed funding “instantly, ” according to Pousaz — a clear sign of excess in venture dealmaking.
Checkout.com itself saw its valuation zoom nearly threefold to $40 billion in January after a new equity round. The firm generated revenue of $252.7 million and a pre-tax loss of $38.3 million in 2020, according to a company filing.
Asked what his company’s valuation would be today, Pousaz said: “Valuation is something for investors who care about entry point and exit point.”
“The multiples last year are not the same multiples than this year,” he added. “We can look at the public markets, the valuations are mostly half what they were last year.”
“But I would almost tell you that I don’t care at all because I care about where my revenue is going and that’s what matters,” he added.
Rising cost of capital
Private tech company valuations are under immense pressure amid rising interest rates, high inflation and the prospect of a global economic downturn. The Fed and other central banks are raising rates and reversing pandemic-era monetary easing to stave off soaring inflation.
That’s led to a sharp pullback in high-growth tech stocks which has, in turn, impacted privately-held startups, which are raising money at reduced valuations in so-called “down rounds.” The likes of Stripe and Klarna have seen their valuations drop 28% and 85%, respectively, this year.
“What we’ve seen in the last few years was a cost of money that was 0,” Pousaz said. “That’s through history very rare. Now we have a cost of money that is high and going to keep going higher.”
Higher rates spell challenges for much of the market, but they represent a notable setback for tech firms that are losing money. Investors value companies based on the present value of future cash flow, and higher rates reduce the amount of that expected cash flow.
Pousaz said investors are yet to find a “floor” for determining how much the cost of capital will rise.
“I don’t think anyone knows where the floor is on the upper hand,” he said. “We need to reach the floor on the upper hand to then decide and start predicting what is the lower end, which is the long term residual cost of capital.”
“Most investors do valuations still to this day on DCF, discounted cash flow, and to do that you need to know what is the residual floor on the downside. Is it 2%, is it 4%? I wish I knew. I don’t.”
‘An entire industry got ahead of its skis’
A common topic of conversation at Web Summit was the relentless wave of layoffs hitting major tech companies. Payments firm Stripe laid off 14% of its employees, or about 1,100 people. A week later, Facebook owner Meta slashed 11,000 jobs. And Amazon is reportedly set to let go 10,000 workers this week.
“I think every investor is trying to push this to their portfolio companies,” Tamas Kadar, CEO of fraud prevention startup Seon, told CNBC. “What they usually say is, if a company is not really growing, it’s stagnating, then try to optimize profitability, increase gross margin ratios and just try to just lengthen the runway.”
Venture deal activity has been declining, according to Kadar. VCs have “hired so many people,” he said, but many of them are “out there just talking and not really investing as much as they did before.”
Not all companies will make it through the looming economic crisis — some will fail, according to Par-Jorgen Parson, partner at VC firm Northzone. “We will see spectacular failures” of some highly valued unicorn companies in the months ahead, he told CNBC.
The years 2020 and 2021 saw eye-watering sums slosh around equities as investors took advantage of ample liquidity in the market. Tech was a key beneficiary thanks to societal shifts brought about by Covid-19, like working from home and increased digital adoption.
As a result, apps promising grocery delivery in under 30 minutes and fintech services letting consumers buy items with no upfront costs and virtually anything to do with crypto attracted hundreds of millions of dollars at multibillion-dollar valuations.
In a time when monetary stimulus is unwinding, those business models have been tested.
“An entire industry got ahead of its skis,” Parson said in an interview. “It was very much driven by hedge fund behaviour, where funds saw a sector that is growing, got exposure to that sector, and then bet on a number of companies with the expectation they will be the market leaders.”
“They pushed up the valuation like crazy. And the reason why it was possible to do that was because there were no other places to go with the money at the time.”
Maëlle Gavet, CEO of startup accelerator program Techstars, agreed and said some later-stage companies were “not built to be sustainable at their current size.”
“A down round may not be always possible and, frankly, for some of them even a down round may not be a viable option for external investors,” she told CNBC.
“I do expect a certain number of late stage companies basically disappearing.”
Technology
Amazon was questioned by House China committee over ‘dangerous and unwise’ TikTok partnership
Amazon logo on a brick building exterior, San Francisco, California, August 20, 2024.
Smith Collection | Gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images
Amazon representatives met with the House China committee in recent months to discuss lawmaker concerns over the company’s partnership with TikTok, CNBC confirmed.
A spokesperson for the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party confirmed the meeting, which centered on a shopping deal between Amazon and TikTok announced in August. The agreement allows users of TikTok, owned by China’s ByteDance, to link their account with Amazon and make purchases from the site without leaving TikTok.
“The Select Committee conveyed to Amazon that it is dangerous and unwise for Amazon to partner with TikTok given the grave national security threat the app poses,” the spokesperson said. The parties met in September, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the news.
Representatives from Amazon and TikTok did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
TikTok’s future viability in the U.S. is uncertain. In April, President Joe Biden signed a law that requires ByteDance to sell TikTok by Jan. 19. If TikTok fails to cut ties with its parent company, app stores and internet hosting services would be prohibited from offering the app.
President-elect Donald Trump could rescue TikTok from a potential U.S. ban. He promised on the campaign trail that he would “save” TikTok, and said in a March interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that “there’s a lot of good and there’s a lot of bad” with the app.
In his first administration, Trump had tried to implement a TikTok ban. He changed his stance around the time he met with billionaire Jeff Yass. The Republican megadonor’s trading firm, Susquehanna International Group, owns a 15% stake in ByteDance, while Yass has a 7% stake in the company, NBC and CNBC reported in March.
— CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian contributed to this report.
Technology
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Former U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning says censorship is still “a dominant threat,” advocating for a more decentralized internet to help better protect individuals online.
Her comments come amid ongoing tension linked to online safety rules, with some tech executives recently seeking to push back over content moderation concerns.
Speaking to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal, on Wednesday, Manning said that one way to ensure online privacy could be “decentralized identification,” which gives individuals the ability to control their own data.
“Censorship is a dominant threat. I think that it is a question of who’s doing the censoring, and what the purpose is — and also censorship in the 21st century is more about whether or not you’re boosted through like an algorithm, and how the fine-tuning of that seems to work,” Manning said.
“I think that social media and the monopolies of social media have sort of gotten us used to the fact that certain things that drive engagement will be attractive,” she added.
“One of the ways that we can sort of countervail that is to go back to the more decentralized and distribute the internet of the early ’90s, but make that available to more people.”
Nym Technologies Chief Security Officer Chelsea Manning at a press conference held with Nym Technologies CEO Harry Halpin in the Media Village to present NymVPN during the second day of Web Summit on November 13, 2024 in Lisbon, Portugal.
Horacio Villalobos | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Asked how tech companies could make money in such a scenario, Manning said there would have to be “a better social contract” put in place to determine how information is shared and accessed.
“One of the things about distributed or decentralized identification is that through encryption you’re able to sort of check the box yourself, instead of having to depend on the company to provide you with a check box or an accept here, you’re making that decision from a technical perspective,” Manning said.
‘No longer secrecy versus transparency’
Manning, who works as a security consultant at Nym Technologies, a company that specializes in online privacy and security, was convicted of espionage and other charges at a court-martial in 2013 for leaking a trove of secret military files to online media publisher WikiLeaks.
She was sentenced to 35 years in prison, but was later released in 2017, when former U.S. President Barack Obama commuted her sentence.
Asked to what extent the environment has changed for whistleblowers today, Manning said, “We’re at an interesting time because information is everywhere. We have more information than ever.”
She added, “Countries and governments no longer seem to invest the same amount of time and effort in hiding information and keeping secrets. What countries seem to be doing now is they seem to be spending more time and energy spreading misinformation and disinformation.”
Manning said the challenge for whistleblowers now is to sort through the information to understand what is verifiable and authentic.
“It’s no longer secrecy versus transparency,” she added.
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