‘We will see spectacular failures’: CEOs and investors on what the end of cheap money means for tech
Guillaume Pousaz, CEO and founder of payment platform Checkout.com, speaking onstage at the 2022 Web Summit tech conference.
Horacio Villalobos | Getty Images
LISBON, Portugal — Once high-flying tech unicorns are now having their wings clipped as the era of easy money comes to an end.
That was the message from the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal, earlier this month. Startup founders and investors took to the stage to warn fellow entrepreneurs that it was time to rein in costs and focus on fundamentals.
“What’s for sure is that the landscape of fundraising has changed,” Guillaume Pousaz, CEO of London-based payments software company Checkout.com, said in a panel moderated by CNBC.
Last year, a small team could share a PDF deck with investors and receive $6 million in seed funding “instantly, ” according to Pousaz — a clear sign of excess in venture dealmaking.
Checkout.com itself saw its valuation zoom nearly threefold to $40 billion in January after a new equity round. The firm generated revenue of $252.7 million and a pre-tax loss of $38.3 million in 2020, according to a company filing.
Asked what his company’s valuation would be today, Pousaz said: “Valuation is something for investors who care about entry point and exit point.”
“The multiples last year are not the same multiples than this year,” he added. “We can look at the public markets, the valuations are mostly half what they were last year.”
“But I would almost tell you that I don’t care at all because I care about where my revenue is going and that’s what matters,” he added.
Rising cost of capital
Private tech company valuations are under immense pressure amid rising interest rates, high inflation and the prospect of a global economic downturn. The Fed and other central banks are raising rates and reversing pandemic-era monetary easing to stave off soaring inflation.
That’s led to a sharp pullback in high-growth tech stocks which has, in turn, impacted privately-held startups, which are raising money at reduced valuations in so-called “down rounds.” The likes of Stripe and Klarna have seen their valuations drop 28% and 85%, respectively, this year.
“What we’ve seen in the last few years was a cost of money that was 0,” Pousaz said. “That’s through history very rare. Now we have a cost of money that is high and going to keep going higher.”
Higher rates spell challenges for much of the market, but they represent a notable setback for tech firms that are losing money. Investors value companies based on the present value of future cash flow, and higher rates reduce the amount of that expected cash flow.
Pousaz said investors are yet to find a “floor” for determining how much the cost of capital will rise.
“I don’t think anyone knows where the floor is on the upper hand,” he said. “We need to reach the floor on the upper hand to then decide and start predicting what is the lower end, which is the long term residual cost of capital.”
“Most investors do valuations still to this day on DCF, discounted cash flow, and to do that you need to know what is the residual floor on the downside. Is it 2%, is it 4%? I wish I knew. I don’t.”
‘An entire industry got ahead of its skis’
A common topic of conversation at Web Summit was the relentless wave of layoffs hitting major tech companies. Payments firm Stripe laid off 14% of its employees, or about 1,100 people. A week later, Facebook owner Meta slashed 11,000 jobs. And Amazon is reportedly set to let go 10,000 workers this week.
“I think every investor is trying to push this to their portfolio companies,” Tamas Kadar, CEO of fraud prevention startup Seon, told CNBC. “What they usually say is, if a company is not really growing, it’s stagnating, then try to optimize profitability, increase gross margin ratios and just try to just lengthen the runway.”
Venture deal activity has been declining, according to Kadar. VCs have “hired so many people,” he said, but many of them are “out there just talking and not really investing as much as they did before.”
Not all companies will make it through the looming economic crisis — some will fail, according to Par-Jorgen Parson, partner at VC firm Northzone. “We will see spectacular failures” of some highly valued unicorn companies in the months ahead, he told CNBC.
The years 2020 and 2021 saw eye-watering sums slosh around equities as investors took advantage of ample liquidity in the market. Tech was a key beneficiary thanks to societal shifts brought about by Covid-19, like working from home and increased digital adoption.
As a result, apps promising grocery delivery in under 30 minutes and fintech services letting consumers buy items with no upfront costs and virtually anything to do with crypto attracted hundreds of millions of dollars at multibillion-dollar valuations.
In a time when monetary stimulus is unwinding, those business models have been tested.
“An entire industry got ahead of its skis,” Parson said in an interview. “It was very much driven by hedge fund behaviour, where funds saw a sector that is growing, got exposure to that sector, and then bet on a number of companies with the expectation they will be the market leaders.”
“They pushed up the valuation like crazy. And the reason why it was possible to do that was because there were no other places to go with the money at the time.”
Maëlle Gavet, CEO of startup accelerator program Techstars, agreed and said some later-stage companies were “not built to be sustainable at their current size.”
“A down round may not be always possible and, frankly, for some of them even a down round may not be a viable option for external investors,” she told CNBC.
“I do expect a certain number of late stage companies basically disappearing.”
Technology
Cognition to buy AI startup Windsurf days after Google poached CEO in $2.4 billion licensing deal
In this photo illustration, a man seen holding a smartphone with the logo of US artificial intelligence company Cognition AI Inc. in front of website.
Timon Schneider | SOPA Images | Sipa USA | AP
Artificial intelligence startup Cognition announced it’s acquiring Windsurf, the AI coding company that lost its CEO and several other senior employees to Google just days earlier.
Cognition said on Monday that it will purchase Windsurf’s intellectual property, product, trademark, brand and talent, but didn’t disclose terms of the deal. It’s the latest development in an AI talent war, as companies like Meta, Google and OpenAI fiercely compete for top engineers and researchers.
OpenAI had been in talks to acquire Windsurf for about $3 billion in April, but the deal fell apart, and Google said on Friday that it hired Windsurf’s co-founder and CEO Varun Mohan. Google is paying $2.4 billion in licensing fees and for compensation, as CNBC previously reported.
“Every new employee of Cognition will be treated the same way as existing employees: with transparency, fairness, and deep respect for their abilities and value,” Cognition CEO Scott Wu wrote in a memo to employees on Monday. “After today, our efforts will be as a united and aligned team. There’s only one boat and we’re all in it together.”
Cognition didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. Windsurf directed CNBC to Cognition.
Cognition is best known for its AI coding agent named Devin, which is designed to help engineers build software faster. As of March, the startup had raised hundreds of millions of dollars at a valuation of close to $4 billion, according to a report from Bloomberg.
Both companies are backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Other investors in Windsurf include Greenoaks, Kleiner Perkins and General Catalyst.
“I’m overwhelmed with excitement and optimism, but most of all, gratitude,” Jeff Wang, the interim CEO of Windsurf, wrote in a post on X on Monday. “Trying times reveal character, and I couldn’t be prouder of how every single person at Windsurf showed up these last three days for each other and for our users.”
Wu said that the acquisition ensures all Windsurf employees are “treated with respect and well taken care of in this transaction.” All employees will participate financially in the deal, have vesting cliffs waived for their work to date and receive fully accelerated vesting for their, according to the memo.
“There’s never been a more exciting time to build,” Wu wrote.
WATCH: Google snatches Windsurf CEO after OpenAI deal dissolves
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