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The world’s eight billionth resident has been born today, according to projections by the United Nations Population Division.

The global population has reached eight billion – three times the size it was in 1950 – and although there are more people on Earth than ever before because we’re living longer, population growth is at its slowest rate in more than 70 years.

In 2020 the global population growth rate fell below 1%. This is largely due to a reduced birth rate, with women having fewer children due to widespread contraception and better education and mobility for women and girls.

The global population is also getting older – 10% are aged over 65, and this will increase to 16% by 2050.

By 2050 the number of over-65s will be twice that of those under five.

Where is it growing the fastest?

The two fastest-growing regions in the world are East and Southeast Asia, home to 2.3 billion people, and central and South Asia, which has 2.1 billion people.

China and India are the joint-most populated countries in the world, with 1.4 billion people each.

Based on UN projections, India will surpass China for the first time next year.

Religious ceremony in Mumbai, India on 31 October
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The population of India is expected to surpass that of China next year

More than half of the projected increase up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050.

The biggest increases will come specifically from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania, with both populations doubling in the next 30 years.

Elsewhere in Africa, the biggest surges will be in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt.

In Asia outside India and China, the biggest growth will happen in Pakistan and the Philippines.

More generally, 46 of the least-developed countries in the world will have the fastest-growing populations between now and 2050.

Most of this growth (two-thirds) will be driven by what has already happened – and the youthful structure of the population.

People queue for COVID testing in Beijing, China on 9 November
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China has been the most populous country since records began

Where is the population shrinking?

The world population is growing more slowly than it has in decades due to long periods of low fertility.

More than two-thirds of people live in countries where women have 2.1 children or fewer.

This is roughly the level that would produce zero growth worldwide.

The population of 61 countries will decrease by 1% or more between now and 2050 – either due to decreased birth rates or increased levels of migration.

The war in Ukraine is having a huge impact on its population size – with projections showing it will have lost more than 20% of its population by 2050.

Four other central and eastern European countries – Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Serbia – will experience similar population decreases in the next three decades.

Read more:
Overpopulation hitting the poorest as family planning remains contentious in Nigeria

A cow grazes near a damaged house in the village of Arkhanhelske, Kherson region
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Many refugees have fled the war in Ukraine

COVID decreases life expectancy

Overall life expectancy fell from 72.8 before the pandemic in 2019 to 71 last year.

COVID’s impact was not the same for every region, however.

Central and southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean were hit the most – with life expectancy decreasing by around three years.

But in Australia and New Zealand, which both shut their borders and pursued a “zero COVID” policy for most of the pandemic, life expectancy increased by 1.2 years due to a decreased risk of dying from other causes during successive lockdowns.

Coronavirus may have resulted in some short-term reductions in pregnancies, but there was no evidence of an overall decline, UN experts said.

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Overpopulation in Nigeria

What’s next?

The global population will continue to grow – to around 8.5 billion people by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050.

It will start to peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.

After that, trends are uncertain.

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Australia, New Zealand, the rest of Oceania, North Africa and Western Asia will still be growing in population by the end of this century.

But the rest of the world, including Europe and North America, will have reached their peak and started to decline before the year 2100.

Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, said of the eight billion milestone: “This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates.”

But he added: “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”

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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed after Beirut airstrikes, Israeli army says

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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed after Beirut airstrikes, Israeli army says

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed after airstrikes in Beirut, the Israeli army has said.

Recent weeks have seen Israel unleash a barrage of strikes against Lebanon after it turned its attention to the conflict at its northern border.

On Friday, Israel targeted the capital Beirut with a series of attacks claiming to have struck the headquarters of Hezbollah.

Israel-Hezbollah latest

People stand near a picture of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the funeral of Hezbollah member Ali Mohamed Chalbi, after hand-held radios and pagers used by Hezbollah detonated across Lebanon, in Kfar Melki, Lebanon September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Aziz Taher
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People stand near a picture of Nasrallah during the funeral of a Hezbollah member. Pic: Reuters

People watch Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised address, as they sit at a cafe in Beirut, Lebanon September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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People watch Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised address in Beirut. Pic: Reuters

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it carried out a “precise strike” on Hezbollah’s “central headquarters”, which it claimed was “embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut”.

The first wave of attacks shook windows across the city and sent thick clouds of smoke billowing into the air.

Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in Beirut's southern suburbs. Pic: AP
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Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP

While Israel stressed it had been a “precise” strike, preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry confirmed at least six other people were killed and 91 were wounded.

Israel said Nasrallah was the intended target and initially there were claims he had survived.

However, after several hours of confusion, his death was confirmed by Israel.

“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorise the world,” the IDF said.

Hours later, a defiant Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death but vowed their fight with Israel would continue after confirming they had fired upon sites in northern Israel.

“The leadership of Hezbollah pledges to the highest, holiest, and most precious martyr in our path full of sacrifices and martyrs to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people,” they said.

Recent days have seen Israel launch strikes in Lebanon in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and Bhamdoun
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Recent days have seen Israel launch strikes in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and Bhamdoun

datawrapper map of Beirut showing the suburb of Dahieh
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The Israeli strike that allegedly took Nasrallah’s life was on residential buildings in Dahieh, Beirut

Alongside claiming to have killed Nasrallah, the IDF said it had killed a number of other commanders, including Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front.

The country’s military said the strike was carried out while Hezbollah leadership met at their underground headquarters in Dahieh.

In the aftermath of the most recent attacks, an Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on whether US-made Mark 84 heavy bombs were used in the strike against Nasrallah.

“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said in a media briefing.

He continued: “We hope this will change Hezbollah’s actions.”

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Hezbollah leader killed says IDF

He added the number of civilian casualties was unclear but blamed Hezbollah for positioning itself in residential areas.

“We’ve seen Hezbollah carry out attacks against us for a year. It’s safe to assume that they are going to continue carrying out their attacks against us or try to,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iran said it was in constant contact with Hezbollah and other allies to determine its “next step”, but Reuters reported the country’s supreme leader was transferred to a secure location in light of the latest attack.

Speaking after the attack, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Muslims “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah” and said: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront,” state media reported.

Nasrallah’s death will be a blow to Hezbollah as it continues to reel from a campaign of escalating Israeli attacks.

Flames rise after an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut this morning. Pic: AP
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Flames rise after an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP

Nasrallah is latest Hezbollah leader to fall

While Nasrallah’s death is certainly the most high-profile of recent attacks, it continues a trend of Israel targeting Hezbollah’s leadership structure.

Also on Saturday, in the early hours of the morning, the commander of the group’s missile unit and his deputy were killed in another Israeli attack in southern Lebanon.

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Then, in a separate strike overnight on Friday, the IDF said it killed the head of Hamas’s network in southern Syria.

This followed the deaths of other senior commanders, including Muhammad Qabisi, earlier in the month.

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Muriel Furrer: Swiss teenage cyclist dies after crash at world championships

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Muriel Furrer: Swiss teenage cyclist dies after crash at world championships

A Swiss teenage cyclist with “a bright future ahead of her” has died a day after suffering a serious head injury at the world championships.

Muriel Furrer crashed while competing on rain-slicked roads in the junior women’s road race in her home country.

The 18-year-old rider fell heavily on Thursday in a forest area south of the city of Zurich and was airlifted to hospital by helicopter, reportedly in a critical condition.

Race organisers announced on Friday she had died.

Zurich University Hospital. Pic: Reuters
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The cyclist died at Zurich University Hospital. Pic: Reuters

They said in a statement: “Muriel Furrer sadly passed away today at Zurich University Hospital.”

The UCI governing body for world cycling paid tribute to her in a statement on its website, entitled “The cycling world mourns the loss of Muriel Furrer”.

It read: “It is with great sadness that the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) and the Organising Committee of the 2024 UCI Road and Para-cycling Road World Championships today learned the tragic news of the death of young Swiss cyclist Muriel Furrer.

“With the passing of Muriel Furrer, the international cycling community loses a rider with a bright future ahead of her. We offer sincere condolences to Muriel Furrer’s family, friends and her Federation Swiss Cycling.”

Swiss Cycling said in a post on X: “Our hearts are broken, we have no words. It is with a heavy heart and infinite sadness that we have to say goodbye to Muriel Furrer today.

“We are losing a warm-hearted and wonderful young woman who always had a smile on her face. There is no understanding, only pain and sadness.”

At a news conference, a director of the Swiss organising committee Olivier Senn said he could not confirm exactly where the crash happened.

Police and the public prosecutor’s office were investigating the incident, Mr Senn said.

Furrer had finished in 44th position in the junior women’s time trial earlier in the week.

The rider’s family has asked for the championships – which last for nine days – to continue, said UCI sports director Peter van den Abeele.

The women’s and men’s elite races, scheduled for Saturday and Sunday respectively, will use the same stretch of road where the fatal crash happened.

A UCI gala event scheduled for Saturday evening has been cancelled, along with public events to mark races planned for Friday.

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Second Swiss cyclist death

Furrer is the second Swiss cyclist to die in just over a year after crashing on home roads.

At the Tour de Suisse in June 2023, Gino Mader went off the road and down a ravine during a descent. The 26-year-old died from his injuries the next day.

“Obviously it is another tragic death,” Mr Senn said. “There are a lot of similarities, similar feelings. Today is about Muriel.”

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Hassan Nasrallah killed: Decapitated and in disarray, Hezbollah and Iran must now decide to fight or backdown

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Hassan Nasrallah killed: Decapitated and in disarray, Hezbollah and Iran must now decide to fight or backdown

The leader of Hezbollah is dead.

This is a very big moment, not just in this conflict but for the future of the Middle East.

In 2006, the last Lebanon War, Israel tried and failed to kill him.

Last night, in a huge series of strikes on southern Beirut, they finally hit their target.

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People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as they sit in a cafe in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
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People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier this month. Pic: AP

A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP
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A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP

Over the past 18 years Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah in his image, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and significantly expanding its arsenal.

He wasn’t just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance.

More on Hezbollah

With Iran’s help, Hezbollah became one of the best armed non-state militaries in the world.

It is now decapitated and in disarray.

During the past decades Israel has also been at work, steadily gathering intelligence on Nasrallah and Hezbollah, building a vast database of information, an effort which arguably distracted them from better understanding the intentions of Hamas.

The intelligence successes of the past days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the stunning failures on October 7.

Iran and Hezbollah must choose

This is a pivotal moment.

Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to respond: fight, or backdown.

The strike also killed Ali Karaqi, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front and labelled as the second most wanted by the IDF.

It is still unclear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior figures would have been eliminated too.

Nasrallah will be replaced.

The assassination of enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Moussawi in 1992.

He was succeeded by Nasrallah.

The working assumption is that the group will respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.

But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.

Nasrallah had become isolated as the IDF had steadily killed commanders over a fortnight of scything airstrikes on their compounds in Beirut and elsewhere.

It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be done with Iranian guidance.

Nasrallah might be dead, but Hezbollah isn’t

Hezbollah is badly wounded, not just as a paramilitary force but in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.

This might be a moment for more moderate voices within Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.

As the war escalated over recent weeks, noticeable divisions emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.

He remained an important ally, however, a trusted advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and this will come as a personal blow to him.

Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy what is left of the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.

Alternatively, after such a difficult ten days, Tehran might conclude that this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with its main proxy still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.

With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also be concerned about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.

Ultimately, the reason for Hezbollah’s existence – to act as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – hasn’t changed, but if Tehran calculates its proxies can no longer act as that shield it might try to accelerate its nuclear programme.

Could a ground invasion follow?

The Israeli government has choices of its own: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue with an air campaign that has delivered such dramatic successes.

There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send troops in, but Hezbollah is not defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and they are likely hiding in the vast tunnel network under the hills across the border.

Even a limited ground invasion risks large loss of life, on both sides, and the potential Israel will be lured into something more prolonged than it intended.

Nasrallah’s death might change the dynamic in Gaza too.

Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has clung on and rejected ceasefire attempts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran would go to war with Israel, dragging its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.

That might still happen, but just as Nasrallah became isolated, so too is Sinwar.

The much trumpeted “unity of arenas” has failed to join up.

The Middle East might often look chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules generally acknowledged and followed by belligerents.

For years Hezbollah and Israel acted within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.

Then, eleven months ago on 8 October, Hezbollah attacked Israel out of solidarity with Hamas.

Nasrallah tied Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting ended in Gaza.

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That ceasefire never came.

The rules shifted as the crossfire escalated, but it remained broadly contained within boundaries understood by both sides.

Until two weeks ago, 17 September, when thousands of pagers started exploding across Beirut and Lebanon.

It is possible Nasrallah had concluded that Israel was war-weary, and he overestimated the domestic and international pressure Netanyahu was under to end the fighting.

He might have believed that Netanyahu had neither the will nor the support to open up another front.

He, like so many of us, maybe assumed US influence on Israel would prevail.

Those miscalculations cost him his life.

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