World population to hit eight billion – as projections reveal where is growing the fastest
The world’s eight billionth resident will be born today, according to projections by the United Nations Population Division.
The global population will reach eight billion – three times the size it was in 1950 – and although there are more people on Earth than ever before because we’re living longer, population growth is at its slowest rate in over 70 years.
In 2020 the global population growth rate fell below 1%. This is largely due to a reduced birth rate, with women having fewer children due to widespread contraception and better education and mobility for women and girls.
The global population is also getting older – 10% are aged over 65, and this will increase to 16% by 2050.
By 2050 the number of over-65s will be twice that of those under five.
Where is it growing the fastest?
The two fastest-growing regions in the world are East and Southeast Asia, which is home to 2.3 billion people; and central and South Asia, which has 2.1 billion people.
Currently, China and India are the joint-most populated countries in the world, with 1.4 billion people each.
But based on UN projections, India will surpass China for the first time in 2023.
Religious ceremony in Mumbai, India on 31 October
Sub-Saharan Africa is the next most-populous region, with more than 50% of population growth expected to come from there between now and 2050.
The biggest increases in growth will come specifically from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania, which will both see their populations double in the next 30 years.
Elsewhere in Africa, the biggest surges in growth will be in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt.
In Asia outside of India and China, the biggest growth will happen in Pakistan and the Philippines.
More generally, 46 of the least developed countries in the world will have the fastest growing populations between now and 2050.
Most of this growth (two thirds) will be driven by what has already happened – and the youthful structure of the current population.
People queue for COVID testing in Beijing, China on 9 November
Where is the population shrinking?
The world population is growing slower than it has in decades due to long periods of low fertility.
More than two thirds of people live in countries where women have 2.1 children or fewer in their lifetimes.
This is roughly the level that would produce zero growth worldwide.
Some 61 countries will see their populations decrease by 1% or more between now and 2050 – either due to decreased birth rates or increased levels of migration.
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COVID decreases life expectancy
Overall life expectancy fell from 72.8 years before the pandemic in 2019 to 71 years in 2021.
COVID’s impact was not the same for every region, however.
Central and southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean’s life expectancies were hit the most – decreasing by around three years.
But in Australia and New Zealand, which both shut their borders and pursued a ‘zero COVID’ policy for most of the pandemic, life expectancy increased by 1.2 years due to a decreased risk of dying from other causes during successive lockdowns.
Coronavirus may have resulted in some short-term reductions in pregnancies, but there was no evidence of an overall decline, UN experts said.
What’s next?
The global population will continue to grow – to around 8.5 billion people by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050.
It will start to peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.
After that, trends are uncertain.
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Australia, New Zealand, the rest of Oceania, North Africa and Western Asia will still be growing in population by the end of this century.
But the rest of the world, including Europe and North America, will have reached their peak and started to decline before the year 2100.
UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said of the eight billion milestone: “This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates.”
But he added: “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”
Donkey karts loaded with wrapped parcels of unknown goods weave around the large puddles of water left in the dried riverbed.
Young men quickly hop over laid bricks to bridge the puddles followed by women treading carefully with babies on their backs.
The Limpopo River’s seasonal dryness is a natural pathway for those moving into South Africa from Zimbabwe illegally.
A sandy narrow beach undisturbed by border patrols with crossers chatting peacefully under trees on both banks as men furiously load and unload smuggled goods on the roadside.
Against the anti-immigration rage and xenophobia boiling over in South Africa’s urban centres, the tranquillity and ease of the border jumping is astonishingly calm.
People crossing the dried Limpopo River to get from Zimbabwe to South Africa
“You can’t stop someone who is suffering. They have to find any means to come find food,” one man tells us anonymously as he crosses illegally.
At 55 years old, he remembers the 3,500-volt electric fence called the “snake of fire” installed here by the Apartheid regime.
Hundreds of women and children escaping conflict in the late 1980s and early 1990s were electrocuted.
A woman near the border
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Today, people fleeing drought and economic strife are smuggled across or walking through border blindspots like this one.
“Now, it’s easy,” he says. “There is no border authority here.”
He crosses regularly and always illegally. While he laughs at the lack of border agents, he says he has been stopped by soldiers in the past.
“They send us back but then the next day you try to come back and it is fine.”
Part of the dilapidated border fence that separates South Africa with Zimbabwe
We find a few soldiers on our way back to the main road. They look confused by our presence but unphased. It is hard to believe they are unaware of the streams of people and goods moving across the dried riverbed just a few hundred metres away.
Border ‘fence’ trampled and full of holes
We drive along the border fence to get to the official border post into Zimbabwe, Beitbridge.
“Fence” is a generous term for the knee-height barbed wire laid across 25 miles of South Africa’s northern edges in 2020. Some sections are completely trampled, and others are gaping with holes.
The concrete fortress is a drastic change to the soft, sandy riverbed. Queues dismantle and reassemble as eager crowds rush from one building to another as instructions change.
Zimbabweans can live, work and study in South Africa on a Zimbabwean exemption permit, but many like Precious, a mother-of-three, cannot even afford a passport.
Precious, a mother-of-three, staying at a shelter in Musina, South Africa
Shelters for women and trafficked children in Musina
When we meet her at a women’s shelter in the border town of Musina, she says she only has $30 (£23.90) to find work in South Africa and that a passport costs $50 (£39.80).
“My husband is disabled and can’t work or do anything. I’m the only one doing everything – school, food, everything. I’m the one who has to take care of the kids and that situation makes me come here to find something,” she says tearfully before breaking down.
The shelter next door is home to trafficked children that were rescued. Other shelters are full of men looking for work.
Musina is a stagnant sanctuary for Zimbabweans searching for a better life who become paralysed here – a sign of the declining state of Zimbabwe and the growing hostility deeper in South Africa.
In Johannesburg, South Africa’s economic centre, illegal immigrants are facing raids and deportations organised by the Ministry of Home Affairs at the behest of popular discontent.
The heavy-handed escalation in the interior sits in stark contrast to the lax border control.
Derelict buildings in Johannesburg where migrants are living
“I wonder how serious our government is about dealing with immigration,” says Nomzamo Zondo, human rights attorney and executive director of the Socio-Economic Rights Institute of South Africa (SERI), as we walk through Johannesburg’s derelict inner city.
“I think part of it is that the South Africa we want to build is one that wants to welcome its neighbours and doesn’t forget the people that welcomed us when we didn’t have a home – and that is why I think they are so poor at maintaining the borders.”
She adds: “But then the call has to be one that says once you are here, how do we make sure you are regularised here, that you know who you are, and contribute to the economy at this point in time.”
More makeshift migrant accommodation in Johannesburg
Climate of anti-migrant hate
In 1994 as South Africa’s first democratically elected president, Nelson Mandela ordered that all electric fences be taken down.
His dream for South Africa to become a pan-African haven for civilians of neighbouring countries that provided sanctuary for fighters in the anti-Apartheid movement was criticised by local constituents back then.
Sky correspondent Yousra Elbagir speaks to migrants inside a government van
Now in a climate of increasing anti-migrant hate, that vision is rejected outright.
“I think that is the highest level of sell-out. When South Africans were in exile, they were in camps and they were restricted to go to other parts of those countries,” says Bungani Thusi, a member of anti-immigrant movement Operation Dudula, at a protest in Soweto.
Anti-immigrant protesters from the group Operation Dudula at a demonstration in Soweto
He is wearing faux military fatigues and has the upright position of an officer heading into battle.
“Why do you allow foreigners to go all over South Africa and run businesses and make girlfriends?” he adds, with all the seriousness of protest.
“South Africans can’t even have their own girlfriends because the foreigners have taken over the girlfriend space.”
Hamas has approved a list of 34 Israeli hostages to be returned as part of a possible Gaza ceasefire deal, an official from the Palestinian group has claimed.
But the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put out a statement saying Hamas had not provided a hostage list “up to this moment”.
Israel and Hamas argued on Sunday over the details of an agreement to halt fighting in the war-ravaged territory and bring captives home.
A renewed push is under way to reach a ceasefire in the 15-month war before US president-elect Donald Trump takes office on 20 January.
Liri Albag’s family said her ‘severe psychological distress is evident’. Pic: PA
It comes as Hamas released a video of a 19-year-old Israeli hostage in Gaza.
In an undated recording, Liri Albag – one of five female soldiers kidnapped in Hamas’s 7 October attack – speaks under duress and shares her anguish at having been held for 450 days.
Speaking in Hebrew, she calls for the Israeli government to secure her release and says: “Today is the beginning of a new year; the whole world is celebrating. Only we are entering a dark year, a year of loneliness.”
Ms Albag – who has turned 19 while being held hostage – adds that a fellow, unnamed captive has been injured. “We are living in an extremely terrifying nightmare,” she says.
The teenager’s family said the video has “torn our hearts to pieces”.
“This is not the daughter and sister we know. Her severe psychological distress is evident,” they said in a statement shared by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum.
The family has not given permission for the video of Ms Albag to be shared publicly but they have authorised the release of two photos.
Ms Albag’s loved ones are calling on the Israeli government and world leaders to use the current ceasefire talks to bring all remaining hostages back alive.
“It’s time to make decisions as if your own children were there,” they said.
Mr Netanyahu’s office said he has spoken Ms Albag’s parents and told them efforts to bring hostages home are “ongoing, including at this very moment”.
“Anyone who dares to harm our hostages will bear full responsibility for their actions,” he said.
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Liri Albag was taken from Nahal Oz. Pic: Bring Them Home Now
Roughly 250 people were taken hostage by Hamas on 7 October 2023 and as of December last year, 96 remained in the group’s custody.
Israel’s subsequent military offensive in Gaza has killed at least 45,805 Palestinians, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
It said 88 people have been killed in the past 24 hours. At least 17 were killed in airstrikes on homes in Gaza City on Saturday.
Several children were among those who died, medics said.
Palestinians gather at the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
Hamas’s video of Ms Albag, and Israel’s airstrikes, come amid a fresh push for an agreement to end the conflict in Gaza.
Israeli representatives arrived in Doha, Qatar, on Friday to resume indirect ceasefire talks brokered by Qatari and Egyptian mediators.
Hamas has said it is committed to reaching an agreement, but it is unclear how close the two sides are.
Joe Biden, whose US presidency comes to an end in just over a fortnight, has urged Hamas to agree a deal – while Mr Trump has said there will “be hell to pay” in Gaza if the hostages are not released before his inauguration in January.
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