
CFP rankings: What’s next for top contenders, plus a 12-team field and the Anger Index
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ESPN staff
The College Football Playoff selection committee will never ask coaches to run up the score, and the protocol specifically states that comparing games against a common opponent is done “without incenting margin of victory.”
That doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate a good old-fashioned drubbing.
With no changes to the top five of the third ranking on Tuesday night — No. 6 LSU and No. 7 USC earned small promotions at the expense of two-loss Oregon, which sank to 12 — Week 12 will provide several opportunities for the top contenders to leave no doubt they’re the better team.
In the case of No. 7 USC, now the committee’s top-ranked Pac-12 team, the one-loss Trojans can make a statement against a ranked rival in No. 16 UCLA — or eliminate the Pac-12 entirely with a loss. No team is better positioned to finish in the top four than No. 1 Georgia, which clinched the SEC East and will face LSU in the conference title game. A resounding win at Kentucky, though, would be another highlight the committee could point to if Georgia finishes as SEC runner-up.
No. 3 Michigan has a chance to continue to assert itself against unranked Illinois, a three-loss team that dropped out of the CFP Top 25 but could still win the Big Ten West. Tennessee and TCU, meanwhile, should cruise against unranked, unheralded conference opponents.
With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, here’s how Week 12 could potentially influence the committee’s evaluation on Selection Day, ranked in order of biggest impact:
Jump to:
Anger Index | 12-team bracket | Résumés |
1. USC at UCLA
Why it’s important: USC has no margin for error, and the road game against the ranked neighborhood rival is the next step in padding a résumé that could eventually trump one-loss Tennessee. USC is the Pac-12’s best hope at the playoff, and while many seem to assume No. 5 Tennessee will finish in the top four because the Vols are currently ranked ahead of USC, it will be much more complicated for the committee once the conference titles are added to the résumés and Tennessee doesn’t have one. USC could finish the season with three straight wins against ranked opponents — UCLA, Notre Dame and the Pac-12 title game opponent — which would put it squarely in the conversation for the top four.
2. TCU at Baylor
Why it’s important: No. 4 TCU didn’t get a bump this week, even though it played its best defense of the season, earned a road win against what used to be a CFP Top 25 team in Texas, and clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. That indicates the Horned Frogs still don’t have much if any margin for error, and a loss on Saturday to an unranked Baylor (6-4) team that K-State just hammered 31-3 would be difficult to overcome on Selection Day. If TCU finishes as an undefeated Big 12 champion, the Horned Frogs will finish in the top four, but a loss to either Baylor or Iowa State along the way will put them in a precarious position. It helped TCU that No. 22 Oklahoma State popped back into the Top 25, giving the Frogs two wins against ranked opponents, along with Kansas State. That would probably match Clemson, if it finishes as a one-loss ACC champ, but they could both be looking up at USC or Tennessee — or both.
3. Tennessee at South Carolina
Why it’s important: If you’re not playing on championship weekend, you’re praying. Without a division or conference title, Tennessee needs to impress the committee every chance it gets, and a road win against a bowl-bound SEC opponent is another boost for the Vols — even if South Carolina isn’t ranked. Assuming the SEC and Big Ten champions are in the top four, Tennessee needs to be concerned about undefeated TCU and one-loss USC. The Vols will need their wins against LSU and Alabama to overcome not having a conference title. Where it could get interesting is if LSU wins the SEC, because Tennessee could then claim a resounding 40-13 win over the SEC champs — in Baton Rouge. The Vols can’t control any of that, though, so finishing the season in style is their best bet.
4. Miami at Clemson
Why it’s important: Clemson and the ACC remain in the worst playoff position of any of the Power 5 conferences, so the Tigers cannot afford to struggle at home against a mediocre Miami team. Clemson hasn’t exactly dominated anyone this season, either. The Tigers are 2-1 against teams currently ranked in the CFP, and have a point margin of minus-5 in those three games (wins against NC State and FSU, loss to Notre Dame). If the SEC, Big Ten and undefeated TCU are in, Clemson needs to worry about one-loss Tennessee. The Vols’ wins against LSU and Alabama would be more impressive than Clemson’s wins against NC State, Florida State and UNC. The Tigers could also lose a résumé debate with one-loss USC. Their bigger problem, though, is that they’re already looking up at two two-loss teams, including Alabama.
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5. Illinois at Michigan
Why it’s important: No, Illinois isn’t ranked, but the three-loss Illini are at least above .500, and that’s more than you can say for most of Michigan’s opponents. Because the only ranked win so far is against Penn State, and only the Nittany Lions, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and UConn have winning records, Michigan needs to make the most of every opportunity it has against a respectable team in case it doesn’t beat No. 2 Ohio State. It’s not impossible for the loser of The Game to finish in the top four, but it would be more difficult for the Wolverines. The selection committee isn’t thrilled with Michigan’s schedule, which at No. 82 is easily the worst of any CFP contender. Michigan could face Illinois twice if they win their respective divisions and meet in the Big Ten championship game.
6. Ohio State at Maryland
Why it’s important: The Buckeyes haven’t clinched the East yet, and if they don’t beat Michigan in the regular-season finale, there’s zero chance Ohio State will finish in the top four if it can’t win in College Park. Ohio State has already struggled this season in bad weather against 1-9 Northwestern. Another ugly win could raise some eyebrows in the committee meeting room if Ohio State doesn’t win its division. Saturday will also give a glimpse into the health status of their two star running backs, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have been injured and will be key to making a serious playoff run. Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters he wouldn’t know their statuses until Thursday. The selection committee considers injuries to key players, but so far, the Buckeyes have continued to piece it together but have relied heavily on their passing game.
7. Georgia at Kentucky
Why it’s important: What if LSU wins the SEC? It’s likely Georgia also finishes in the top four, but it’s not a guarantee — especially with Tennessee sitting there with a win over the SEC champs. The selection committee considers common opponents, and there is no example more critical than this one. Would the committee put in the team that lost to the SEC champs, and not the one that beat them? It’s not the only component, though. Head-to-head results also matter, and Georgia owned Tennessee in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score indicated. Georgia could continue to boost its case with a road win against a division opponent, and wouldn’t be a great look if the Bulldogs struggled against a team Vanderbilt just found a way to beat.
Anger index
There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season, which means we’ve got just three more sets of rankings to go before the committee retires to its underground lair to begin plotting against the Group of 5 for another offseason. This week’s CFP Top 25 offered few surprises. If anyone expected the committee to challenge conventional wisdom, they were sorely disappointed. But that doesn’t mean no one has cause for frustration in the aftermath of the release. This is college football, after all. Anger is the default setting. So, let’s get to this week’s Anger Index.
1. Washington Huskies (8-2)
We talk a lot about résumé when it comes to the College Football Playoff rankings, but we rarely define what exactly a good résumé looks like. So, here’s one suggestion:
• At least one win vs. a very good to great opponent (in the top 10% of FBS teams) to prove you can play with the best of the best.
• Three or more wins against good teams (in the top one-third of FBS teams) to prove you can survive the week-in, week-out grind.
• Two or more wins in true road games to show you can go into a hostile environment and hold your own.
Add those three things up, package them with a sterling win-loss record, and you’ve got a resumé worthy of playoff consideration.
So, who fits that bill right now?
As of this week, there are nine teams. Eight of them are ranked among the top nine teams in the country (No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 TCU, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 6 LSU, No. 8 Alabama and No. 9 Clemson).
The ninth team? That’d be the Washington Huskies, who check in at a less-than-exciting No. 17 in this week’s rankings, behind four other Pac-12 teams, including two-loss Utah at No. 10 and two-loss UCLA at No. 16 as well as two-loss Oregon, ranked five spots higher, despite losing last week at home to… Washington!
So, why does the committee dismiss the Huskies? It’s all about style points.
Washington led Michigan State 39-10 in the second half, but the game finished 39-28.
The Huskies were up 30-7 on Stanford at the end of the third quarter, but the Cardinal rallied late for a 40-22 loss.
They were up 42-24 on Arizona in the second half, too, but that game ended 49-39.
Essentially, Washington has gone up big then gone on autopilot, and the end result is a handful of wins against lackluster opponents that look entirely mediocre.
Well, that and the loss to Arizona State. How can anyone explain that one? A pick six? Three turnovers on downs? Some sort of voodoo curse? Your guess is as good as ours.
The first eight teams we included here are 23-0 against the bottom half of FBS teams (per FPI) and have an average margin of victory of 40 points.
Washington is 4-1 and has won by an average of 10 points.
But is it reasonable to judge Washington by what it did against Arizona State when we’ve witnessed the Huskies toppled Oregon in Eugene?
The Pac-12 is essentially a five-team stalemate right now, so a lot can change. But there’s really very little case for Washington as the fourth of those five teams, and if we simply look at the credits rather than the debits on the Huskies’ resumé, there’s actually a fairly strong case for putting them at the top of the heap.
2. The ACC
Clearly the committee is not a fan of the ACC, despite the league’s nine teams with six wins or better already. That pesky Notre Dame deal, which keeps leading to ugly losses for the league and no salvation from realignment from the Irish is a real problem.
This week’s rankings put the ACC in a bit of a bind. Clemson is ranked No. 9, the lowest by any of the supposed playoff contenders, a spot behind two-loss Alabama. Yes, Clemson’s résumé is far superior to, say, No. 7 USC. And yes, Clemson beat a Florida State team that beat two-loss LSU (ranked three spots higher). And yes, the Tigers rebounded nicely from the Notre Dame loss last week with an emphatic win over Louisville. But the committee isn’t buying, which means the Tigers can win out and still be at the bottom of the conference champion pecking order.
That’s doubly true for North Carolina. Here’s a quick comparison:
Team A: 9-1, No. 11 strength of record, No. 75 strength of schedule, road loss to ranked team, Heisman contender QB, shaky defense, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Team B: 9-1, No. 10 strength of record, No. 65 strength of schedule, road loss to a ranked team, Heisman contender at QB, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Not much separating the two, right? And yet, six spots separate Team A (North Carolina) from Team B (USC) in the rankings.
3. Everyone outside the Big Ten
Ohio State is No. 2. Michigan is No. 3. Both, by any eye test or statistical metric, are very good teams.
And yet, look at the résumés.
Michigan beat Penn State. It’s next best win is by a touchdown at home vs. Maryland. Seven of its 10 wins are against teams .500 or worse (and the other is Iowa, which… sorry, we fell asleep while typing Iowa.)
Ohio State beat Penn State. It’s next best win was a rather unimpressive affair in the opener against Notre Dame. In Big Ten play, the best team the Buckeyes have beaten is… sorry, we nodded off again thinking about Iowa.
So the lynchpin for both teams to be ranked in the top three is Penn State. And yet, Penn State’s best wins are Purdue, Auburn and Minnesota — all unranked.
None of this is to suggest Michigan and Ohio State aren’t two of the three best teams in the country. They may well be. But even before the season began, it was obvious the path to get here was just a two-step process: Beat Penn State, meet up in Columbus on Nov. 26.
Must be nice.
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the power to expand the College Football Playoff wants the field to grow to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season.
But currently, expansion is scheduled to begin in 2026. So while discussions continue on how to move up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the already-determined model released by the commissioners and presidents.
The field will be composed of the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.
Here’s what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:
Seeds with byes
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. USC
Remaining seeds
(conference champs in bold)
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. LSU
8. Alabama
9. Clemson
10. Utah
11. Penn State
12. UCF
First-round games
No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Michigan
No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Tennessee
No. 10 Utah at No. 7 LSU
No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Georgia
No. 10 Utah-No. 7 LSU winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 11 Penn State-No. 6 Tennessee winner vs. No. 3 TCU
No. 12 UCF-No. 5 Michigan winner vs. No. 4 USC
Top résumés
1. Georgia
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 44 | SOR: 2
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee 27-13
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Kentucky
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
No. 2 Ohio State
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 60 | SOR: 4
Biggest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State 44-31
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan
Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship, No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24
No. 3 Michigan
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 82 | SOR: 5
Biggest win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State 41-17
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Ohio State
Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl, No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11
No. 4 TCU
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 38 | SOR: 1
Biggest win: Oct. 22 vs. Texas 17-10
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Baylor
Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 5 Tennessee
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 3 | SOR: 3
Biggest win: Oct. 8 at LSU 40-13
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at South Carolina
Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 6 LSU
Record: 8-2 | SOS: 11 | SOR: 7
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama 32-31
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Texas A&M
Last playoff appearance: 2020 CFP National Championship: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25
No. 7 USC
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 65 | SOR: 10
Biggest win: Sept. 24 at Oregon State 17-14
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at UCLA
Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 8 Clemson
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 55 | SOR: 8
Biggest win: Oct. 1 vs. NC State 30-20
Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina
Last playoff appearance: 2021 Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28
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Sports
Week 4 preview: Key matchups, quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype and more
Published
3 hours agoon
September 19, 2025By
admin
If there’s an overriding storyline through three weeks, it has been about the winners and losers of some big bets on quarterbacks.
Miami bet on Carson Beck reviving his NFL prospects after a down year at Georgia. So far, he has delivered, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass with eight total touchdowns, and the Canes are ranked in the top five.
Oklahoma wagered Brent Venables’ future on John Mateer, and the Washington State transfer has been electric, leading the Sooners past Michigan in a Week 2 showdown and earning Heisman front-runner status.
Auburn felt sure former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold still had plenty of untapped potential, and through three weeks, he has looked like the superstar he once was, getting the Tigers to 3-0.
Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon all bet on in-house QBs rather than dipping into the transfer portal, and all have been rewarded.
Florida State, Indiana and Tulane hit pay dirt in the portal.
That’s the good news.
On the flip side, so many quarterbacks who were expected to provide massive dividends — Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, DJ Lagway, Nico Iamaleava, LaNorris Sellers — have wavered between average or awful.
Week 4 offers some chances for redemption, with Lagway getting another big test against Miami, Klubnik hoping to right the ship against Syracuse and UNC‘s Gio Lopez going on the road against UCF in the Tar Heels’ first real test since a blowout loss to TCU.
Some of the nation’s most talented young players have a chance to break through, too. CJ Carr can earn win No. 1 against woeful Purdue. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, coming off a strong performance against Central Michigan, has a much bigger test against Nebraska. Ole Miss’ Austin Simmons hopes to return from injury in time to make his mark in a showdown with Tulane.
The story is just beginning to be written, so there’s plenty of time for Manning, Klubnik and other preseason darlings to find their footing. But it has been a cold September for some of the nation’s most renowned passers, and Week 4 could be another opportunity for others to grab their share of the spotlight. — David Hale
Jump to:
Auburn-Oklahoma | Utah-Texas Tech
Quarterbacks who are falling short
Breakout players | Quotes of the week
What do each of these teams need to do to win?
Auburn: The Tigers have to disrupt Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer and make him pay for running the ball, and they have the ingredients to do so. Auburn is tied for sixth nationally in sacks per game (3.67) and tied for 12th in tackles for loss per game (8.7). Although Keldric Faulk is the headliner, Arkansas State transfer Keyron Crawford has been the team’s most disruptive pass rusher so far with three sacks and a forced fumble. The defense and run game, which ranks 16th nationally at 240 yards per game, ideally must reduce the pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold in his highly anticipated return to Oklahoma. Arnold is completing nearly 70% of his passes, running the ball effectively and limiting mistakes, but the more Auburn’s other playmakers can take off his plate, the better the chances for a key road win. — Adam Rittenberg
Oklahoma: Arnold started nine games for the Sooners last fall. If anyone knows his weak spots, it’s Oklahoma coach Brent Venables. As Adam points out, Arnold (eight turnovers in 2024) has played efficient, mistake-free football in his first three games at Auburn. A Sooners defense that’s creating pressures on 44.6% of its snaps this season — 10th nationally, per ESPN Research — is built to change that and make Arnold uncomfortable, although Oklahoma will be without 2024 sack leader R Mason Thomas for the first half Saturday following a Week 3 targeting ejection. Mateer will have his own work cut out for him against the Tigers’ defensive front, but he should be able to find holes in a secondary that ranks 85th in yards allowed per game (220.0). The difference, ultimately, could come on the ground where a still-figuring-out Oklahoma rushing attack meets Auburn’s 10th-ranked run defense (67.0 yards per game) on Saturday. Freshman Tory Blaylock (5.4 yards per carry) has been the Sooners’ most effective running back through three games. — Eli Lederman
How do each of these quarterbacks need to perform?
Utah: Through three games a year ago, Utah had gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives. This season, it has happened only three times in three games. The difference is Devon Dampier, who has looked as at ease running his brand of dual-threat football in a Power 4 backfield as he did a year ago at New Mexico. Dampier has racked up more than 800 yards of offense and accounted for eight touchdowns, and he has yet to turn the ball over. His skill set has made him particularly effective. He has already accumulated 80 yards on scramble plays, and three of his seven TD passes have come from outside the pocket. This will be his biggest test to date, but he’ll also be, by far, the biggest challenge for Texas Tech’s defense. — Hale
Texas Tech: Behren Morton hasn’t taken a snap after the third quarter across three straight 30-plus point victories to open the season. Still, Texas Tech’s senior quarterback enters Week 4 tied for No. 1 nationally in passing touchdowns (11) and ranks ninth in passing yards (923), leading the nation’s highest-scoring offense (58.0 PPG). Utah, with the nation’s 20th-ranked pass defense (134.0 yards per game), should present Morton with his toughest test yet in 2025. He’ll have to be accurate against an experienced Utes secondary, and Morton’s decision-making will be key, too, in the face of a Utah front seven that features the nation’s joint sack leader in John Henry Daley — five in three games — and blitzes on 42.6% of its snaps, the 10th-highest rate among FBS defenses, per ESPN Research. Most of all, Texas Tech will hope Morton’s experience (27 career starts) can keep its offense steady in the Red Raiders’ first visit to a notoriously hostile Rice-Eccles Stadium. — Eli Lederman
Three quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype
1. Arch Manning
Anyone can have a rough outing in a Week 1 matchup against the defending champs, and Manning looked fine a week later against San José State. So, nothing to worry about, right? Ah, not so fast. A dismal first half against UTEP ignited a full-on inferno of criticism of the preseason Heisman favorite, and for good reason. Manning is completing just 55% of his throws and has turned the ball over three times, and Texas has gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives so far. Add the sideline grimace that coach Steve Sarkisian chalked up to — well, we’re not quite sure — and it would be enough reason for concern even if Manning didn’t carry a legendary name and a ton of hype. That this all comes on the heels of such high expectations means Manning will be fighting critics for the foreseeable future.
2. Cade Klubnik
What’s wrong with Clemson‘s offense? The answers are everywhere, but none appear bigger than Klubnik, who has at times looked lost, frustrated or intimidated in the pocket. His 37.5 QBR through three games ranks 121st out of 136 FBS passers, and his miserable first-half performances — no passing touchdowns, two turnovers — have put Clemson in some early holes. Klubnik is completing less than 60% of his throws on the year, but the bigger issue is the number of open receivers he hasn’t even targeted in key moments. He has been sacked just three times this year, but he has gotten moved off his position too often, and abandoned ship even more frequently. So, what’s wrong with the Tigers? The better question is what’s wrong with the Tigers’ QB?
3. DJ Lagway
After last year’s hot finish, the assumption was that Lagway would take the next step in 2025 to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Through three weeks, he’s nowhere close. Not only is Florida off to a 1-2 start, Lagway has been the primary culprit. He’s completing 71% of his throws, but nearly one-third of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage. He has done nothing to extend the field, attempting just seven throws of 20 yards or more. On those throws, he has one completion and two picks. Lagway’s six interceptions overall are tied for the second most nationally through three games. If Florida wants to turn things around amid a brutal schedule, it has to start with Lagway looking more like the player he appeared to be down the stretch in 2024. — Hale
Five early breakout players
Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami: The 6-foot-3, 275-pound pass rusher is performing at an All-America level so far this season with 15 stops, 11 pressures, 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble through three games. Bain was a top-100 recruit and a Freshman All-American in 2023, so there’s nothing shocking about his rise, but he’s making the leap as a junior and proving he’s a no-doubt NFL draft first-round pick. As ESPN draft expert Jordan Reid put it, no other draft-eligible player in the sport is having a greater down-to-down impact than Bain.
Taylen Green, QB, Arkansas: Green is off to an incredible start to his second season under OC Bobby Petrino, leading the country in total offense with 866 passing yards, 307 rushing yards (most among all FBS QBs) and 13 total touchdowns. Last week against Ole Miss, he became the first QB in program history to surpass 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. The Razorbacks came up short in their SEC opener but have seven more top-25 opponents on the schedule, which should give Green every opportunity to play his way into Heisman contention.
Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M: The Aggies faced Craver last year during his freshman season at Mississippi State and knew he could be a dangerous playmaker. He has been an absolute game changer for Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s passing game with an FBS-leading 443 receiving yards and four TDs on just 20 receptions. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound wideout isn’t flying under the national radar anymore after burning Notre Dame’s secondary for a career-best 207 yards on seven catches, and his 279 yards after catch are nearly 100 more than any other pass catcher in the country.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy had a prolific freshman season at UL Monroe and hasn’t slowed down one bit since making his move to the SEC. He’s now the second-leading rusher in the FBS with 462 yards and five TDs after a ridiculous 250-yard day against Louisiana last week. The sophomore has played in only 15 career games, yet he already has three 200-yard performances on his résumé, and he leads all FBS backs with 29 forced missed tackles, according to ESPN Research.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal: The true freshman from Hawaii was a late riser in the recruiting rankings as a high school senior, and we’re quickly learning why he became so coveted. Sagapolutele signed with Oregon but flipped back to Cal in early January, believing he’d have a chance to start right away for the Golden Bears. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound lefty has flashed big-time arm talent and exciting potential with 780 passing yards and seven total TDs while leading a 3-0 start. He’s becoming must-see TV on a Cal squad that looks poised to exceed expectations. — Max Olson
Quotes of the Week
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on speculation about his job security:
“Hey, listen, if Clemson’s tired of winning, they can send me on my way. But I’m gonna go somewhere else and coach. I ain’t going to the beach. Hell, I’m 55. I’ve got a long way to go. Y’all are gonna have to deal with me for a while.”
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on quarterback Arch Manning:
“Here’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, the way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by. I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”
LSU coach Brian Kelly:
“LSU won the football game, won the game. I don’t know what you want from me. What do you want? You want us to win 70-0 against Florida to keep you happy?”
Michigan fill-in coach Biff Poggi on Bryce Underwood:
“He might actually be Batman. We need to do a DNA test on him.”
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key addressing his team after beating Clemson:
“Enjoy the s— out of it, man. Guess what? Next week is going to be bigger.”
Sports
Sources: ACC closing in on new schedule format
Published
4 hours agoon
September 19, 2025By
admin
-
Andrea Adelson
CloseAndrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
-
David Hale
CloseDavid Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
Sep 18, 2025, 10:41 PM ET
The ACC is closing in on a change to its scheduling format that will require all league teams to play at least 10 games against Power Four competition, though the number of intra-conference games played — eight or nine — remains a sticking point, according to multiple sources.
Athletics directors are scheduled to meet Monday in Charlotte to discuss the details of what will either be a move to a nine-game conference slate with one additional Power Four game required out of conference or an “8+2” model that would provide more flexibility to schools who already have an annual non-conference rival.
“The ACC committing to go to 10 Power Four games is a big step forward,” Clemson athletics director Graham Neff said. “It’s indicative of where college football is and leans into emphasizing the importance of strength of schedule and more Power Four matchups.”
Neff is among the handful of ADs concerned that a nine-game conference slate would be problematic in limiting schools’ ability to play marquee non-conference games, as Clemson did this season against LSU in Week 1.
The Tigers play South Carolina annually and, beginning in 2027, will also have a yearly game against Notre Dame.
A straw poll of 13 of the ACC’s 17 athletics directors showed nine supported or were amenable to the nine-game slate, while Clemson and Florida State are among the others with concerns about the impact on non-conference scheduling.
The SEC announced last month it would move from an eight-game to a nine-game conference slate — a decision that has spurred the ACC’s interest in adjusting its scheduling model, too.
Multiple sources said ACC commissioner Jim Phillips wants to see the conference play nine league games annually plus require each school to schedule one out-of-conference game against another Power Four school, essentially matching the SEC’s new strategy. ACC schools are already supposed to have at least one Power Four non-conference game each year, but that rule has not been enforced and several programs have avoided playing a more difficult schedule. Sources told ESPN that the current conversations have reached a consensus that 10 Power Four games must be an enforced minimum moving forward.
One administrator said it felt inevitable the league was going to go to nine league games. Duke coach Manny Diaz agreed.
“I think it’d be awfully strange to be the only conference not at nine conference games,” Diaz said. “Usually when you’re the only one doing something, it’s either really good or really bad. It just feels like you’d want continuity in what everybody does in college sports.”
The SEC’s move coincided with the College Football Playoff committee’s revised guidelines that emphasize strength of opponent. SEC schools are also expected to see an increase in revenue from its TV partner, ESPN, for adding the additional conference game.
ACC ADs were briefed on the various plans during a call Wednesday, though several said there remains little understanding of how potential changes would be accepted by ESPN or considered among the College Football Playoff committee. Indeed, as Radakovich noted, the ideal formula for a 12-team playoff vs. an expanded playoff might not be the same, but the ACC will need to decide its scheduling fate before knowing what the future playoff might look like.
“Hopefully Jim [Phillips] will give us some insight into that when we get together Monday, and help set the table that, hey, nine is going to be really important for us to keep a very good seat at the table as it relates to the other CFP commissioners and the Power 4 conferences,” Miami athletics director Dan Radakovich said. “It all depends on how big the CFP gets. That’s another driving factor we won’t know. We’re going to have to make this decision without that knowledge and try to project it the best way we can.”
No additional revenues are expected to come from ESPN if a change is made. The ACC also changed its revenue-distribution model starting in 2025, awarding a higher percentage of revenue to schools based on TV ratings.
“It’s important we continue to be strategic in providing value to our media partner, ESPN,” Neff said. “And with how the ACC has adapted our financial distribution model, that has direct school revenue implications unlike any other conference.”
The ACC has wrestled with how many league games it should play for more than a decade. In 2012, the ACC agreed to play nine league games, but decided to stay at eight after adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh and coming to a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame the following year. The intra-state nonconference rivalry games that Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville play annually against their SEC rivals have always been a sticking point in any of these discussions.
For those four specific teams, their rivalry games coupled with a nine-game conference slate would provide a full inventory of 10 Power Four matchups — with more in years in which those schools play Notre Dame as part of the league’s agreement that requires five games per year against the Irish. That leaves little room for marquee matchups like Clemson-LSU or Florida State-Alabama, two games that did monster ratings in Week 1 of this season, each drawing more than 10 million viewers.
But future marquee non-conference matchups like those could disappear once the ACC moves to a nine-game conference slate, Neff said, which could diminish the overall product and inhibit revenue opportunities, given the ACC’s new distribution model that provides more money to schools with better TV ratings.
Radakovich noted that games like this week’s showdown with Florida are unlikely to be played moving forward due to the constraints of a larger conference schedule, but he will continue to have conversations with Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin.
“It’s going to be a real tough sell because Florida has their nine SEC games and their rivalry game with FSU,” Radakovich said. “Scott and I will have some chats to see if it can happen but it’s going to be some tough sledding.”
Louisville athletics director Josh Heird said his school would still schedule top non-conference competition, even if that means an 11th Power Four game. The Cardinals currently have future games scheduled against Georgia in 2026 and 2027 and Texas A&M in 2028 and 2029.
“Play good teams,” Heird said. “We’ll play Kentucky every year, and we’ll have Notre Dame every once in a while. And we absolutely want to still play the home-and-homes with Georgia and Texas A&M. I think the kids want to play those games, too.”
Several ADs expressed concern, however, that series like Louisville’s with Georgia and Texas A&M would disappear regardless, as the SEC bows out of such matchups now that its teams will play nine league games. Others suggested the SEC and Big Ten — the two leagues with the most financial clout — could work together for non-conference scheduling, leaving the ACC and Big 12 with few options to fill out their schedules, particularly if the ACC has two Power Four non-conference games required.
“You’re not guaranteed 10,” one AD in favor of a 9+1 model said. “That’s the issue. Who’s to say the other Power four leagues want to schedule ACC schools?”
One alternative could be for ACC teams to schedule non-conference games against each other, as NC State and Virginia did in Week 2. Several ADs expressed skepticism about that plan, however, suggesting it would be extremely confusing for fans to understand which ACC vs. ACC matchups counted in the league standing and which did not.
Regardless, the ACC will have to figure out a way around a more basic problem of math. With 17 football-playing members, there’s no way for all schools to play nine conference games.
One initial plan involved games vs. Notre Dame — an ACC member in all sports except football — to count as conference games. Multiple ADs told ESPN that plan has been shelved for the time being, likely in favor of an imbalanced model in which at least one team will play just eight conference games while the rest play nine.
Monday’s meetings in Charlotte are expected to move the league closer to a final decision, but several sources said they did not expect an official vote to happen for a few weeks and were similarly dubious a change would take effect for the 2026 season.
“Let’s look to try to set our course,” Radakovich said. “The discussions will happen Monday but decisions will hopefully happen shortly thereafter. Hopefully we’ll come out of that with a consensus that leads the ACC to a final conclusion.”
Sports
Witness in 2006 Miami murder case found alive
Published
7 hours agoon
September 19, 2025By
admin
Florida prosecutors have repeatedly told a court that a key witness in their murder case against a former Miami Hurricanes football player accused in the 2006 killing of teammate Bryan Pata was dead.
However, with the long-delayed murder trial of Rashaun Jones only weeks from its scheduled start in Miami, ESPN reporters knocked on an apartment door in Louisville, Kentucky, recently and found the witness, Paul Conner, alive.
Conner told ESPN that he wasn’t aware anyone from Miami was looking for him and said he rarely leaves his apartment.
Prosecutors told Florida 11th Circuit Court Judge Cristina Miranda as recently as July that Conner was dead. A spokesperson for the state attorney’s office, Ed Griffith, told ESPN on Thursday that police relied on a public database that “seemed to indicate” Conner was deceased and that police asked officers in Louisville to knock on Conner’s door. He offered no documents of such a visit nor details of when an officer visited or what happened.
Griffith also pressed a reporter for the address ESPN visited — the same address that was listed on the database report Griffith cited. The lead detective in the case, Juan Segovia, also texted an ESPN reporter asking for Conner’s contact information.
It’s unclear how the revelation about Conner will affect the trial, currently set to start Oct. 6. “Is there an impact of that on the case? I would have to say yes, potentially,” Griffith said.
Jones’ attorney, Sara Alvarez, said ESPN’s finding raises further questions about the state’s case.
“I’m not shocked, but appalled,” she said by telephone Thursday. “This is a bigger issue. This is just blatant lies. Bald-faced lies.
“It’s a shame and it’s disgusting that you would be willing to send a man to prison for the rest of his life without any evidence and then not be honest about what evidence exists and doesn’t exist.”
In a conversation with an ESPN reporter and in questioning by police, Jones has said he did not kill Pata. He has pleaded not guilty.
Conner, a retired University of Miami writing instructor, once lived in the apartment complex where Pata, a likely high draft pick in the 2007 NFL draft, was shot once in the head in November 2006.
Conner contacted police soon after the shooting, saying he heard a “pop” and saw someone “jogging” away from the parking lot entrance near where Pata was shot. Conner picked Jones out of a photo lineup.
Some 13 years later, Conner was reinterviewed in 2020 and again picked Jones out of a lineup, according to Jones’ arrest warrant. And Conner recounted what he saw at a 2022 bond hearing and in a 2023 deposition with attorneys.
Conner, now 81, told ESPN in his Aug. 25 interview that he now doesn’t recall what happened in Miami, and he seemed unfamiliar with his prior statements.
“I’m getting up in years,” he said. “My memory comes and goes. How long ago was this court case?”
With Jones’ trial date looming, Miami assistant state attorney Cristina Diamond told Miranda in a July 17 hearing that officials believed Conner to be dead after multiple failed attempts to contact him and a third-party commercial database indicating he was deceased. Miranda accepted the efforts to find Conner and ruled to allow his prior testimony from the hearing and deposition to be used at trial. Jones’ attorneys had initially objected on grounds of their inability to cross-examine his statements but conceded to accept the state’s evidence during that hearing.
ESPN’s interview with Conner was actually the second confirmation that he was alive. After a reporter contacted Conner’s last known employer, a former colleague asked Louisville police to conduct a welfare check. On July 22, Conner answered and confirmed his identity, according to police bodycam images reviewed by ESPN.
The Miami-Dade Police Department’s inability to find Conner is the latest in a long string of official missteps that have dramatically prolonged the case and frustrated Pata’s still-grieving family. According to information obtained by ESPN through a lawsuit against Miami-Dade Police and other interviews and records, Jones was among the first suspects considered by police, but they didn’t arrest him until 2021, nine months after ESPN first published its findings. Jones, now 40, has remained in custody for the past four years amid court delays and changes in attorneys on both sides.
In March 2022, Miranda agreed to grant Jones an $850,000 bail and allow him out, pending trial; however, Jones has not paid the amount — typically 10%, or $85,000 — needed for release, sources told ESPN.
That bond hearing included in-person testimony from Conner. Police had no eyewitness to the shooting, so Conner was a key element to a case that relies heavily on testimony from friends and teammates that Jones and Pata fought verbally and physically before the killing and that Jones possessed a gun similar to the one likely used to kill Pata (although police never recovered the weapon).
Conner told the court he was walking to the Colony Apartment Complex, where he and Pata lived, just before 7 p.m. on Nov. 7, 2006. He was near the parking lot entrance when he heard a “loud bang.” About 15 to 20 seconds later, Conner testified, he came “face-to-face” with a man walking at a brisk pace. “He smiled at me. He had a clean set of white teeth,” Conner said. “I described him to the forensic artist.”
On the photo lineup from which Conner picked out Jones’ photo, Conner had put his signature, date and the phrase “90 percent,” and a defense attorney asked him what that meant.
“One of the detectives asked me, how sure I was that that was the defendant. And I answered 90%,” he said.
The attorney later asks, “So, if I understand you correctly, there is a 10% error in your calculation of whether or not this person is the person that you saw on that night?” to which Conner responds, “It could have been.”
The defense attorney also noted that when Conner, several years later, picked Jones out of a lineup, Jones’ picture was in the same location on a page as the first time — the top middle photo.
In building their case against Jones, prosecutors also have cited Jones’ actions that night, including his failure to attend a mandatory team meeting called after the shooting and efforts to borrow money to leave the area. They also cite cell phone records they say contradict where Jones told officers he had been.
According to a state motion filed July 8 to request the use of Conner’s prior testimony, Det. Segovia said he had been in touch with the FBI and local police in Ohio, where Conner last worked at the University of Toledo. Segovia said he learned that Conner had moved to Kentucky.
Segovia then reached out to the Louisville Police Department, and according to the motion, “contact was made with the leasing office of that address, and they indicated that Mr. Conner did not live there.” Records show prosecutors were planning to subpoena a homicide detective from Louisville. No such officer has testified in the case.
ESPN requested records from the Louisville Police Department and connected with a spokesperson multiple times to inquire about any efforts made to locate Conner and any efforts by the officer who had been subpoenaed to testify. The spokesperson there said there were no records of any officer going to Conner’s address until the welfare check requested by the university colleague and ESPN’s inquiries. Conner said he has lived at his Louisville address for about a couple of years. A family member said they knew of no reason the leasing office would say Conner didn’t live there. A call to the leasing office was not returned.
ESPN made multiple requests to police and the Miami-Dade State Attorney for records of their efforts to find Conner. After initially claiming they had no documents, they eventually provided an email exchange in which Segovia wrote that he left 15 voicemail messages with Conner since May. Segovia added that he also sent emails to an address that officers had used with him previously. They also provided a copy of a June 6 letter addressed to Conner at his Louisville address that asked him to contact their office.
During ESPN’s visit, Conner allowed a reporter to review his phone. There were dozens of unanswered calls, and he appeared unfamiliar with how to check his voicemail. Several calls came from Miami-area phone numbers, including at least one that matched a phone number for Segovia. At a prior hearing, prosecutors said they had been aware Conner struggled with “technology” and had been difficult to reach.
Miami-Dade officials and the judge did not have a death certificate, mortuary record, obituary or any other official record of death, but instead relied on a commercial third-party information provider. Such companies often provide factual background information, but their terms of use disclose that information might contain errors, and they do not guarantee accuracy.
Conner’s cousin Steve Fahey, who said he was familiar with Conner’s prior role in the case, said he sees Conner frequently. He told ESPN in a phone interview that Conner has struggled lately with memory issues. He said Conner never mentioned anyone from Miami trying to reach him, and Fahey said no one from Miami tried to contact him, either.
Miami-Dade officials noted they spoke to a “distant cousin” of Conner’s who they said was unaware of Conner’s whereabouts, but they did not name the individual.
Alvarez, Jones’ attorney, said she should be able to question Conner in front of a jury about what she said were contradictions in details he gave police at various times. Whether Conner testifies, Alvarez said she plans to question Segovia about what she calls lies and misrepresentations of evidence.
Among other issues affecting the case recently, police told the court this summer that they had lost Pata’s student judicial records from the University of Miami. Pata had been involved in — although sometimes as just a bystander — a few misdemeanor-level altercations, according to the records, which ESPN acquired years ago through a public records request.
During a July 9 hearing, Jones’ attorney asked for a copy of an unredacted “lead sheet,” which was a four-page document with all the leads officers were looking into and a list of 39 individuals. The Miami-Dade Police Department used the lead sheet in the public records litigation with ESPN to assert the case was still active.
But during the hearing, the two main detectives who had worked the case said they didn’t know where the lead sheet was, and Segovia said it likely was discarded.
Florida law governs what documents agencies may destroy and which must be kept. Part of the statute applies to “summary information on … suspects or accomplices in crimes” and says records in that category must be retained “until obsolete, superseded, or administrative value is lost.”
Officials have not provided a reason as to why Jones wasn’t arrested until 2021, other than to say the case got a “fresh set of eyes” after Segovia was assigned as lead detective in 2020. That was around the time ESPN sued the Miami-Dade Police Department over the redacted investigative file. The last dated entry in the police report before the arrest was from 2010.
In a deposition last year, Segovia testified that police did not uncover any new evidence in the ensuing years that gave them probable cause to arrest Jones in 2021. “It was there all along,” Segovia said, but in 2007, the state attorney did not believe the case was strong enough to make an arrest.
In testimony during the records lawsuit hearings, law enforcement officials argued that they had a prime suspect and that there could be an arrest “in the foreseeable future,” which they said justified that the case was still active and its records not subject to disclosure; under Florida law, records from closed or adjudicated cases are subject to release.
In a pretrial hearing July 11, ASA Diamond offered a plea agreement to Jones of 18 years with credit for time served, but Jones — who attended the hearing via video conference — and his attorney rejected the offer.
In Florida, a conviction for second-degree murder could carry a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
ESPN’s original investigation into the case revealed a multitude of leads that police pursued, including a dispute Pata had over stolen car wheels, an angry ex-girlfriend, a nightclub fight involving possible gang members and two alleged jailhouse confessions. Nothing came of the tips.
The investigation also found multiple inconsistencies in police statements, leads that weren’t pursued to the end and people connected to Pata who were never interviewed.
Pata’s family members have, over the years, expressed frustration and disappointment in what they see as a lack of interest and effort by police.
Leading up to the trial, Edwin Pata, Bryan’s brother, said they were ready to finally see Jones on trial.
“It’s good that we’re actually going to put it behind us,” he said. “It’s constantly on our minds … we just got to be ready for it and know what to expect and be able to handle it.”
ESPN producers Scott Frankel and Gus Navarro contributed to this report.
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