The College Football Playoff selection committee will never ask coaches to run up the score, and the protocol specifically states that comparing games against a common opponent is done “without incenting margin of victory.”
That doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate a good old-fashioned drubbing.
With no changes to the top five of the third ranking on Tuesday night — No. 6 LSU and No. 7 USC earned small promotions at the expense of two-loss Oregon, which sank to 12 — Week 12 will provide several opportunities for the top contenders to leave no doubt they’re the better team.
In the case of No. 7 USC, now the committee’s top-ranked Pac-12 team, the one-loss Trojans can make a statement against a ranked rival in No. 16 UCLA — or eliminate the Pac-12 entirely with a loss. No team is better positioned to finish in the top four than No. 1 Georgia, which clinched the SEC East and will face LSU in the conference title game. A resounding win at Kentucky, though, would be another highlight the committee could point to if Georgia finishes as SEC runner-up.
No. 3 Michigan has a chance to continue to assert itself against unranked Illinois, a three-loss team that dropped out of the CFP Top 25 but could still win the Big Ten West. Tennessee and TCU, meanwhile, should cruise against unranked, unheralded conference opponents.
With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, here’s how Week 12 could potentially influence the committee’s evaluation on Selection Day, ranked in order of biggest impact:
Why it’s important: USC has no margin for error, and the road game against the ranked neighborhood rival is the next step in padding a résumé that could eventually trump one-loss Tennessee. USC is the Pac-12’s best hope at the playoff, and while many seem to assume No. 5 Tennessee will finish in the top four because the Vols are currently ranked ahead of USC, it will be much more complicated for the committee once the conference titles are added to the résumés and Tennessee doesn’t have one. USC could finish the season with three straight wins against ranked opponents — UCLA, Notre Dame and the Pac-12 title game opponent — which would put it squarely in the conversation for the top four.
2. TCU at Baylor
Why it’s important: No. 4 TCU didn’t get a bump this week, even though it played its best defense of the season, earned a road win against what used to be a CFP Top 25 team in Texas, and clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. That indicates the Horned Frogs still don’t have much if any margin for error, and a loss on Saturday to an unranked Baylor (6-4) team that K-State just hammered 31-3 would be difficult to overcome on Selection Day. If TCU finishes as an undefeated Big 12 champion, the Horned Frogs will finish in the top four, but a loss to either Baylor or Iowa State along the way will put them in a precarious position. It helped TCU that No. 22 Oklahoma State popped back into the Top 25, giving the Frogs two wins against ranked opponents, along with Kansas State. That would probably match Clemson, if it finishes as a one-loss ACC champ, but they could both be looking up at USC or Tennessee — or both.
3. Tennessee at South Carolina
Why it’s important: If you’re not playing on championship weekend, you’re praying. Without a division or conference title, Tennessee needs to impress the committee every chance it gets, and a road win against a bowl-bound SEC opponent is another boost for the Vols — even if South Carolina isn’t ranked. Assuming the SEC and Big Ten champions are in the top four, Tennessee needs to be concerned about undefeated TCU and one-loss USC. The Vols will need their wins against LSU and Alabama to overcome not having a conference title. Where it could get interesting is if LSU wins the SEC, because Tennessee could then claim a resounding 40-13 win over the SEC champs — in Baton Rouge. The Vols can’t control any of that, though, so finishing the season in style is their best bet.
4. Miami at Clemson
Why it’s important: Clemson and the ACC remain in the worst playoff position of any of the Power 5 conferences, so the Tigers cannot afford to struggle at home against a mediocre Miami team. Clemson hasn’t exactly dominated anyone this season, either. The Tigers are 2-1 against teams currently ranked in the CFP, and have a point margin of minus-5 in those three games (wins against NC State and FSU, loss to Notre Dame). If the SEC, Big Ten and undefeated TCU are in, Clemson needs to worry about one-loss Tennessee. The Vols’ wins against LSU and Alabama would be more impressive than Clemson’s wins against NC State, Florida State and UNC. The Tigers could also lose a résumé debate with one-loss USC. Their bigger problem, though, is that they’re already looking up at two two-loss teams, including Alabama.
Why it’s important: No, Illinois isn’t ranked, but the three-loss Illini are at least above .500, and that’s more than you can say for most of Michigan’s opponents. Because the only ranked win so far is against Penn State, and only the Nittany Lions, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and UConn have winning records, Michigan needs to make the most of every opportunity it has against a respectable team in case it doesn’t beat No. 2 Ohio State. It’s not impossible for the loser of The Game to finish in the top four, but it would be more difficult for the Wolverines. The selection committee isn’t thrilled with Michigan’s schedule, which at No. 82 is easily the worst of any CFP contender. Michigan could face Illinois twice if they win their respective divisions and meet in the Big Ten championship game.
6. Ohio State at Maryland
Why it’s important: The Buckeyes haven’t clinched the East yet, and if they don’t beat Michigan in the regular-season finale, there’s zero chance Ohio State will finish in the top four if it can’t win in College Park. Ohio State has already struggled this season in bad weather against 1-9 Northwestern. Another ugly win could raise some eyebrows in the committee meeting room if Ohio State doesn’t win its division. Saturday will also give a glimpse into the health status of their two star running backs, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have been injured and will be key to making a serious playoff run. Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters he wouldn’t know their statuses until Thursday. The selection committee considers injuries to key players, but so far, the Buckeyes have continued to piece it together but have relied heavily on their passing game.
7. Georgia at Kentucky
Why it’s important: What if LSU wins the SEC? It’s likely Georgia also finishes in the top four, but it’s not a guarantee — especially with Tennessee sitting there with a win over the SEC champs. The selection committee considers common opponents, and there is no example more critical than this one. Would the committee put in the team that lost to the SEC champs, and not the one that beat them? It’s not the only component, though. Head-to-head results also matter, and Georgia owned Tennessee in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score indicated. Georgia could continue to boost its case with a road win against a division opponent, and wouldn’t be a great look if the Bulldogs struggled against a team Vanderbilt just found a way to beat.
Anger index
There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season, which means we’ve got just three more sets of rankings to go before the committee retires to its underground lair to begin plotting against the Group of 5 for another offseason. This week’s CFP Top 25 offered few surprises. If anyone expected the committee to challenge conventional wisdom, they were sorely disappointed. But that doesn’t mean no one has cause for frustration in the aftermath of the release. This is college football, after all. Anger is the default setting. So, let’s get to this week’s Anger Index.
1. Washington Huskies (8-2)
We talk a lot about résumé when it comes to the College Football Playoff rankings, but we rarely define what exactly a good résumé looks like. So, here’s one suggestion:
• At least one win vs. a very good to great opponent (in the top 10% of FBS teams) to prove you can play with the best of the best.
• Three or more wins against good teams (in the top one-third of FBS teams) to prove you can survive the week-in, week-out grind.
• Two or more wins in true road games to show you can go into a hostile environment and hold your own.
Add those three things up, package them with a sterling win-loss record, and you’ve got a resumé worthy of playoff consideration.
So, who fits that bill right now?
As of this week, there are nine teams. Eight of them are ranked among the top nine teams in the country (No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 TCU, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 6 LSU, No. 8 Alabama and No. 9 Clemson).
The ninth team? That’d be the Washington Huskies, who check in at a less-than-exciting No. 17 in this week’s rankings, behind four other Pac-12 teams, including two-loss Utah at No. 10 and two-loss UCLA at No. 16 as well as two-loss Oregon, ranked five spots higher, despite losing last week at home to… Washington!
So, why does the committee dismiss the Huskies? It’s all about style points.
Washington led Michigan State 39-10 in the second half, but the game finished 39-28.
The Huskies were up 30-7 on Stanford at the end of the third quarter, but the Cardinal rallied late for a 40-22 loss.
They were up 42-24 on Arizona in the second half, too, but that game ended 49-39.
Essentially, Washington has gone up big then gone on autopilot, and the end result is a handful of wins against lackluster opponents that look entirely mediocre.
Well, that and the loss to Arizona State. How can anyone explain that one? A pick six? Three turnovers on downs? Some sort of voodoo curse? Your guess is as good as ours.
The first eight teams we included here are 23-0 against the bottom half of FBS teams (per FPI) and have an average margin of victory of 40 points.
Washington is 4-1 and has won by an average of 10 points.
But is it reasonable to judge Washington by what it did against Arizona State when we’ve witnessed the Huskies toppled Oregon in Eugene?
The Pac-12 is essentially a five-team stalemate right now, so a lot can change. But there’s really very little case for Washington as the fourth of those five teams, and if we simply look at the credits rather than the debits on the Huskies’ resumé, there’s actually a fairly strong case for putting them at the top of the heap.
2. The ACC
Clearly the committee is not a fan of the ACC, despite the league’s nine teams with six wins or better already. That pesky Notre Dame deal, which keeps leading to ugly losses for the league and no salvation from realignment from the Irish is a real problem.
This week’s rankings put the ACC in a bit of a bind. Clemson is ranked No. 9, the lowest by any of the supposed playoff contenders, a spot behind two-loss Alabama. Yes, Clemson’s résumé is far superior to, say, No. 7 USC. And yes, Clemson beat a Florida State team that beat two-loss LSU (ranked three spots higher). And yes, the Tigers rebounded nicely from the Notre Dame loss last week with an emphatic win over Louisville. But the committee isn’t buying, which means the Tigers can win out and still be at the bottom of the conference champion pecking order.
That’s doubly true for North Carolina. Here’s a quick comparison:
Team A: 9-1, No. 11 strength of record, No. 75 strength of schedule, road loss to ranked team, Heisman contender QB, shaky defense, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Team B: 9-1, No. 10 strength of record, No. 65 strength of schedule, road loss to a ranked team, Heisman contender at QB, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Not much separating the two, right? And yet, six spots separate Team A (North Carolina) from Team B (USC) in the rankings.
3. Everyone outside the Big Ten
Ohio State is No. 2. Michigan is No. 3. Both, by any eye test or statistical metric, are very good teams.
And yet, look at the résumés.
Michigan beat Penn State. It’s next best win is by a touchdown at home vs. Maryland. Seven of its 10 wins are against teams .500 or worse (and the other is Iowa, which… sorry, we fell asleep while typing Iowa.)
Ohio State beat Penn State. It’s next best win was a rather unimpressive affair in the opener against Notre Dame. In Big Ten play, the best team the Buckeyes have beaten is… sorry, we nodded off again thinking about Iowa.
So the lynchpin for both teams to be ranked in the top three is Penn State. And yet, Penn State’s best wins are Purdue, Auburn and Minnesota — all unranked.
None of this is to suggest Michigan and Ohio State aren’t two of the three best teams in the country. They may well be. But even before the season began, it was obvious the path to get here was just a two-step process: Beat Penn State, meet up in Columbus on Nov. 26.
Must be nice.
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the power to expand the College Football Playoff wants the field to grow to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season.
But currently, expansion is scheduled to begin in 2026. So while discussions continue on how to move up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the already-determined model released by the commissioners and presidents.
The field will be composed of the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.
Here’s what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:
Seeds with byes
1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC
Remaining seeds (conference champs in bold)
5. Michigan 6. Tennessee 7. LSU 8. Alabama 9. Clemson 10. Utah 11. Penn State 12. UCF
First-round games
No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Michigan No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Tennessee No. 10 Utah at No. 7 LSU No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Georgia No. 10 Utah-No. 7 LSU winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 11 Penn State-No. 6 Tennessee winner vs. No. 3 TCU No. 12 UCF-No. 5 Michigan winner vs. No. 4 USC
Top résumés
1. Georgia
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 44 | SOR: 2 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee 27-13 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Kentucky Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
No. 2 Ohio State
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 60 | SOR: 4 Biggest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State 44-31 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship, No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24
No. 3 Michigan
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 82 | SOR: 5 Biggest win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State 41-17 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Ohio State Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl, No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11
No. 4 TCU
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 38 | SOR: 1 Biggest win: Oct. 22 vs. Texas 17-10 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Baylor Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 5 Tennessee
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 3 | SOR: 3 Biggest win: Oct. 8 at LSU 40-13 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at South Carolina Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 6 LSU
Record: 8-2 | SOS: 11 | SOR: 7 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama 32-31 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Texas A&M Last playoff appearance: 2020 CFP National Championship: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25
No. 7 USC
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 65 | SOR: 10 Biggest win: Sept. 24 at Oregon State 17-14 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at UCLA Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 8 Clemson
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 55 | SOR: 8 Biggest win: Oct. 1 vs. NC State 30-20 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina Last playoff appearance: 2021 Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28
U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell of the Western District of North Carolina also denied NASCAR’s request that two teams — 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports — be ordered to post a bond to cover fees they would not be legally owed if they lose the case.
23XI Racing, a team co-owned by NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, which is owned by entrepreneur Bob Jenkins, are suing NASCAR to compete with charter recognition throughout the 2025 season.
NASCAR and the teams that compete in the top Cup Series operate with a franchise system that was implemented in 2016 in which 36 cars have “charters” that guarantee them a spot in the field at every race and financial incentives. There are four “open” spots earmarked for the field each week.
The teams banded together in negotiations on an improved charter system in an often-contentious battle with NASCAR for nearly two years. In September, NASCAR finally had enough and presented the teams with a take-it-or-leave-it offer that had to be signed the same day – just 48 hours before the start of the playoffs.
23XI and Front Row were the only two teams out of 15 who refused to sign the new charter agreement. They then teamed together to sue NASCAR and chairman Jim France, arguing as the only stock car entity in the United States, NASCAR has a monopoly and the teams are not getting their fair share of the pie.
Both organizations maintained they would still compete as open cars, but convinced Bell last month to give them chartered status by arguing they would suffer irreparable harm as open cars. Among the claims was that 23XI driver Tyler Reddick, last year’s regular-season champion, would contractually become an immediate free agent if the team did not have him in a guaranteed chartered car.
NASCAR argued Wednesday that it needs that money earmarked because it would be redistributed to the chartered teams if 23XI and Front Row lose.
Jeffrey Kessler, considered the top antitrust lawyer in the country, argued that NASCAR has made no such promise to redistribute the funds to other teams. Kessler said NASCAR told teams it was up to NASCAR’s discretion how it would use the money and didn’t rule out spending some on its own legal fees.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
For years, teammates have asked Devin Williams to teach them his changeup, a pitch so unusual and dominant it has its own nickname. Williams always helps. They just never get “The Airbender” right.
“I haven’t seen anyone replicate it,” Williams said.
Powered by The Airbender, Williams has established himself as one of the premier relievers in baseball since breaking into the majors in 2019. He has been so good that the Milwaukee Brewers, keeping with their frugal roster-building tactics, traded Williams to the New York Yankees last month for left-hander Nestor Cortes and prospect Caleb Durbin before he inevitably would become too expensive in free agency next winter.
So, for one season, at least, Williams will follow in the footsteps of another Yankees closer who perplexed hitters with one pitch: Mariano Rivera.
“Those are big shoes to fill,” Williams said of Rivera, whose signature cutter helped him become the first player voted unanimously to the Hall of Fame. “I feel he kind of ruined it for everybody else. I mean, after him, it’s hard to live up to those expectations. But at the end of the day, I can only be me.”
Being himself has been more than good enough for the 30-year-old Williams. The right-hander won the 2020 National League Rookie of the Year Award with a 0.33 ERA in 22 games as the Brewers’ primary setup man during the COVID-shortened campaign. He was an All-Star in 2022 and 2023, his first full season as a closer.
Last season, after missing the first four months with stress fractures in his back, he posted a 1.25 ERA with 14 saves in 15 opportunities across 22 appearances. His 40.8% strikeout rate since 2020 ranks second in the majors among relievers. His 1.70 ERA is also second. His .144 batting average against ranks first.
“Obviously, he’s one of the best in the league, if not the best,” Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake said.
For Williams, it all starts with The Airbender. Williams grips it like a changeup and its 84-mph average velocity plays off his fastball like a changeup. But it’s a changeup with an exceptionally high spin rate that breaks to his arm side — opposite from the typical changeup — making it resemble a screwball or a left-hander’s sweeping slider. It is without precedent.
“It’s not anything to do with the grip,” Williams said. “The grip is nothing special. That’s why I think it’s funny when people are like, ‘Oh, don’t give it away.’ This is the most basic changeup grip they teach you when you’re 8 years old.”
Williams said his changeup is so different for two reasons: His elite extension, which ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024, and a singular ability to pronate his wrist.
“It’s the way my wrist works, the way I’m able to manipulate the ball is something unique, uniquely me,” Williams said. “It allows me to throw my changeup the way I throw it. I’m a really good pronator, not supinator. That’s why my slider sucked. You need to get on the other side of the ball. I’m not good at that. I’m good at turning it over.”
Williams did, however, modify his changeup grip to unearth the weapon. Entering 2019, Williams was a struggling minor league starter with a solid changeup, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He was one year from reaching free agency, from perhaps seeing his career come to an end and going to college to play soccer.
That spring, seeking more movement, he altered his changeup grip from a two-seam to a four-seam, circle change grip. He first threw it during a live batting practice session to Trent Grisham, then a Brewers prospect. Grisham, now with the Yankees, told Williams the spin difference was noticeable. Williams stuck with it.
A starter through spring training, Williams was sent to Double-A as a reliever to begin the season. The demotion sparked desperation, and Williams decided to throw harder than ever, reaching back to lift his fastball into the high 90s. He was in the majors by August. But it wasn’t until the COVID shutdown in 2020 — when he realized spinning the ball more and dropping the velocity from high-80s to mid-80s created more movement — that his changeup reached another level.
“I took that into the season and at summer camp I’m facing my own teammates,” Williams said. “And Jedd Gyorko, I threw him one, and he swung and missed and he was just like, What is that? I’ve never seen [anything] like that. That gave me confidence and we just ran with it. And I literally started throwing it all the time.”
Coincidentally, Williams said the closest changeup he’s seen to his belongs to Luke Weaver, whose emergence as a shutdown reliever in 2024 was crucial in the Yankees reaching the World Series. Williams happened to be in New York when the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers played in the Fall Classic. He was on his annual autumn vacation after the Brewers were eliminated from the postseason. Past trips have taken him all over Europe: London, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, Munich, Dortmund, with a soccer game invariably on his itinerary.
This time, he was in New York. He explored the city for 10 days. Instead of soccer, he watched the World Series from a bar. He shopped. He ate good food. He absorbed the city’s energy.
“I’m a city guy,” Williams said. “I love to explore cities. I like to immerse myself in the culture. I want to be like a normal, everyday person. You guys like bacon, egg and cheese? All right, I’m getting a bacon, egg and cheese.”
Less than two months later, as part of a series of moves executed in their pivot from Juan Soto‘s decision to sign with the crosstown Mets, the Yankees added Williams. On Thursday, Williams settled for $8.6 million to avoid arbitration.
He’ll partner with Weaver to create one of the best bullpen back ends in baseball — in hopes of helping the Yankees win their first championship since Rivera was dominating hitters with his cutter.
The Penguins’ captain tied Hall of Famer Joe Sakic at 1,641 points with an assist on Bryan Rust‘s first-period goal. Crosby then moved past Sakic with an assist on Drew O’Connor‘s sixth goal of the season later in the period as the Penguins raced to a 4-1 advantage.
Crosby’s 12th goal 5:42 into the second put the Penguins up 5-1, providing some welcome wiggle room for a team that has struggled to hold multiple-goal leads this season.
The next name ahead of Crosby on the career scoring list is none other than Penguins icon Mario Lemieux, who had 1,723 points.
“I’m running out of superlatives [about Crosby],” Penguins coach Mike Sullivan told reporters after the game. “What he’s accomplishing, first of all, his body of work in the league, his legacy that has been built to this point, speaks for itself. He’s the consummate pro. He just represents our sport, the league, the Pittsburgh Penguins in such a great way.
“He just carries himself with so much grace and humility and integrity. And he’s a fierce competitor on the ice.”
Rust also had a goal and two assists for Pittsburgh, which snapped a three-game losing streak by beating the Oilers for the first time since Dec. 20, 2019.
“For us, that was our goal — to be on our toes, be all over them, be on top of them, because they’re very fast, a skilled team,” Rust told reporters after the game. “I think just a result of that was us being able to get some offense.”
McDavid finished with three assists. Leon Draisaitl scored twice to boost his season total to an NHL-best 31, but the Penguins beat Stuart Skinner four times in the first 14 minutes. Skinner settled down to finish with 21 saves but it wasn’t enough as the Penguins ended Edmonton’s four-game winning streak.
TAKEAWAYS
Oilers: Their attention to detail in the first period was shaky. Though Skinner wasn’t at his best, the Penguins also had little trouble generating chances.
Penguins: Pittsburgh remains a work in progress at midseason but showed it can compete with the league’s best.
UP NEXT
Edmonton finishes a four-game trip at Chicago on Saturday. The Penguins continue a five-game homestand Saturday against Ottawa.