The College Football Playoff selection committee will never ask coaches to run up the score, and the protocol specifically states that comparing games against a common opponent is done “without incenting margin of victory.”
That doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate a good old-fashioned drubbing.
With no changes to the top five of the third ranking on Tuesday night — No. 6 LSU and No. 7 USC earned small promotions at the expense of two-loss Oregon, which sank to 12 — Week 12 will provide several opportunities for the top contenders to leave no doubt they’re the better team.
In the case of No. 7 USC, now the committee’s top-ranked Pac-12 team, the one-loss Trojans can make a statement against a ranked rival in No. 16 UCLA — or eliminate the Pac-12 entirely with a loss. No team is better positioned to finish in the top four than No. 1 Georgia, which clinched the SEC East and will face LSU in the conference title game. A resounding win at Kentucky, though, would be another highlight the committee could point to if Georgia finishes as SEC runner-up.
No. 3 Michigan has a chance to continue to assert itself against unranked Illinois, a three-loss team that dropped out of the CFP Top 25 but could still win the Big Ten West. Tennessee and TCU, meanwhile, should cruise against unranked, unheralded conference opponents.
With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, here’s how Week 12 could potentially influence the committee’s evaluation on Selection Day, ranked in order of biggest impact:
Why it’s important: USC has no margin for error, and the road game against the ranked neighborhood rival is the next step in padding a résumé that could eventually trump one-loss Tennessee. USC is the Pac-12’s best hope at the playoff, and while many seem to assume No. 5 Tennessee will finish in the top four because the Vols are currently ranked ahead of USC, it will be much more complicated for the committee once the conference titles are added to the résumés and Tennessee doesn’t have one. USC could finish the season with three straight wins against ranked opponents — UCLA, Notre Dame and the Pac-12 title game opponent — which would put it squarely in the conversation for the top four.
2. TCU at Baylor
Why it’s important: No. 4 TCU didn’t get a bump this week, even though it played its best defense of the season, earned a road win against what used to be a CFP Top 25 team in Texas, and clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. That indicates the Horned Frogs still don’t have much if any margin for error, and a loss on Saturday to an unranked Baylor (6-4) team that K-State just hammered 31-3 would be difficult to overcome on Selection Day. If TCU finishes as an undefeated Big 12 champion, the Horned Frogs will finish in the top four, but a loss to either Baylor or Iowa State along the way will put them in a precarious position. It helped TCU that No. 22 Oklahoma State popped back into the Top 25, giving the Frogs two wins against ranked opponents, along with Kansas State. That would probably match Clemson, if it finishes as a one-loss ACC champ, but they could both be looking up at USC or Tennessee — or both.
3. Tennessee at South Carolina
Why it’s important: If you’re not playing on championship weekend, you’re praying. Without a division or conference title, Tennessee needs to impress the committee every chance it gets, and a road win against a bowl-bound SEC opponent is another boost for the Vols — even if South Carolina isn’t ranked. Assuming the SEC and Big Ten champions are in the top four, Tennessee needs to be concerned about undefeated TCU and one-loss USC. The Vols will need their wins against LSU and Alabama to overcome not having a conference title. Where it could get interesting is if LSU wins the SEC, because Tennessee could then claim a resounding 40-13 win over the SEC champs — in Baton Rouge. The Vols can’t control any of that, though, so finishing the season in style is their best bet.
4. Miami at Clemson
Why it’s important: Clemson and the ACC remain in the worst playoff position of any of the Power 5 conferences, so the Tigers cannot afford to struggle at home against a mediocre Miami team. Clemson hasn’t exactly dominated anyone this season, either. The Tigers are 2-1 against teams currently ranked in the CFP, and have a point margin of minus-5 in those three games (wins against NC State and FSU, loss to Notre Dame). If the SEC, Big Ten and undefeated TCU are in, Clemson needs to worry about one-loss Tennessee. The Vols’ wins against LSU and Alabama would be more impressive than Clemson’s wins against NC State, Florida State and UNC. The Tigers could also lose a résumé debate with one-loss USC. Their bigger problem, though, is that they’re already looking up at two two-loss teams, including Alabama.
Why it’s important: No, Illinois isn’t ranked, but the three-loss Illini are at least above .500, and that’s more than you can say for most of Michigan’s opponents. Because the only ranked win so far is against Penn State, and only the Nittany Lions, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and UConn have winning records, Michigan needs to make the most of every opportunity it has against a respectable team in case it doesn’t beat No. 2 Ohio State. It’s not impossible for the loser of The Game to finish in the top four, but it would be more difficult for the Wolverines. The selection committee isn’t thrilled with Michigan’s schedule, which at No. 82 is easily the worst of any CFP contender. Michigan could face Illinois twice if they win their respective divisions and meet in the Big Ten championship game.
6. Ohio State at Maryland
Why it’s important: The Buckeyes haven’t clinched the East yet, and if they don’t beat Michigan in the regular-season finale, there’s zero chance Ohio State will finish in the top four if it can’t win in College Park. Ohio State has already struggled this season in bad weather against 1-9 Northwestern. Another ugly win could raise some eyebrows in the committee meeting room if Ohio State doesn’t win its division. Saturday will also give a glimpse into the health status of their two star running backs, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have been injured and will be key to making a serious playoff run. Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters he wouldn’t know their statuses until Thursday. The selection committee considers injuries to key players, but so far, the Buckeyes have continued to piece it together but have relied heavily on their passing game.
7. Georgia at Kentucky
Why it’s important: What if LSU wins the SEC? It’s likely Georgia also finishes in the top four, but it’s not a guarantee — especially with Tennessee sitting there with a win over the SEC champs. The selection committee considers common opponents, and there is no example more critical than this one. Would the committee put in the team that lost to the SEC champs, and not the one that beat them? It’s not the only component, though. Head-to-head results also matter, and Georgia owned Tennessee in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score indicated. Georgia could continue to boost its case with a road win against a division opponent, and wouldn’t be a great look if the Bulldogs struggled against a team Vanderbilt just found a way to beat.
Anger index
There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season, which means we’ve got just three more sets of rankings to go before the committee retires to its underground lair to begin plotting against the Group of 5 for another offseason. This week’s CFP Top 25 offered few surprises. If anyone expected the committee to challenge conventional wisdom, they were sorely disappointed. But that doesn’t mean no one has cause for frustration in the aftermath of the release. This is college football, after all. Anger is the default setting. So, let’s get to this week’s Anger Index.
1. Washington Huskies (8-2)
We talk a lot about résumé when it comes to the College Football Playoff rankings, but we rarely define what exactly a good résumé looks like. So, here’s one suggestion:
• At least one win vs. a very good to great opponent (in the top 10% of FBS teams) to prove you can play with the best of the best.
• Three or more wins against good teams (in the top one-third of FBS teams) to prove you can survive the week-in, week-out grind.
• Two or more wins in true road games to show you can go into a hostile environment and hold your own.
Add those three things up, package them with a sterling win-loss record, and you’ve got a resumé worthy of playoff consideration.
So, who fits that bill right now?
As of this week, there are nine teams. Eight of them are ranked among the top nine teams in the country (No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 TCU, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 6 LSU, No. 8 Alabama and No. 9 Clemson).
The ninth team? That’d be the Washington Huskies, who check in at a less-than-exciting No. 17 in this week’s rankings, behind four other Pac-12 teams, including two-loss Utah at No. 10 and two-loss UCLA at No. 16 as well as two-loss Oregon, ranked five spots higher, despite losing last week at home to… Washington!
So, why does the committee dismiss the Huskies? It’s all about style points.
Washington led Michigan State 39-10 in the second half, but the game finished 39-28.
The Huskies were up 30-7 on Stanford at the end of the third quarter, but the Cardinal rallied late for a 40-22 loss.
They were up 42-24 on Arizona in the second half, too, but that game ended 49-39.
Essentially, Washington has gone up big then gone on autopilot, and the end result is a handful of wins against lackluster opponents that look entirely mediocre.
Well, that and the loss to Arizona State. How can anyone explain that one? A pick six? Three turnovers on downs? Some sort of voodoo curse? Your guess is as good as ours.
The first eight teams we included here are 23-0 against the bottom half of FBS teams (per FPI) and have an average margin of victory of 40 points.
Washington is 4-1 and has won by an average of 10 points.
But is it reasonable to judge Washington by what it did against Arizona State when we’ve witnessed the Huskies toppled Oregon in Eugene?
The Pac-12 is essentially a five-team stalemate right now, so a lot can change. But there’s really very little case for Washington as the fourth of those five teams, and if we simply look at the credits rather than the debits on the Huskies’ resumé, there’s actually a fairly strong case for putting them at the top of the heap.
2. The ACC
Clearly the committee is not a fan of the ACC, despite the league’s nine teams with six wins or better already. That pesky Notre Dame deal, which keeps leading to ugly losses for the league and no salvation from realignment from the Irish is a real problem.
This week’s rankings put the ACC in a bit of a bind. Clemson is ranked No. 9, the lowest by any of the supposed playoff contenders, a spot behind two-loss Alabama. Yes, Clemson’s résumé is far superior to, say, No. 7 USC. And yes, Clemson beat a Florida State team that beat two-loss LSU (ranked three spots higher). And yes, the Tigers rebounded nicely from the Notre Dame loss last week with an emphatic win over Louisville. But the committee isn’t buying, which means the Tigers can win out and still be at the bottom of the conference champion pecking order.
That’s doubly true for North Carolina. Here’s a quick comparison:
Team A: 9-1, No. 11 strength of record, No. 75 strength of schedule, road loss to ranked team, Heisman contender QB, shaky defense, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Team B: 9-1, No. 10 strength of record, No. 65 strength of schedule, road loss to a ranked team, Heisman contender at QB, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Not much separating the two, right? And yet, six spots separate Team A (North Carolina) from Team B (USC) in the rankings.
3. Everyone outside the Big Ten
Ohio State is No. 2. Michigan is No. 3. Both, by any eye test or statistical metric, are very good teams.
And yet, look at the résumés.
Michigan beat Penn State. It’s next best win is by a touchdown at home vs. Maryland. Seven of its 10 wins are against teams .500 or worse (and the other is Iowa, which… sorry, we fell asleep while typing Iowa.)
Ohio State beat Penn State. It’s next best win was a rather unimpressive affair in the opener against Notre Dame. In Big Ten play, the best team the Buckeyes have beaten is… sorry, we nodded off again thinking about Iowa.
So the lynchpin for both teams to be ranked in the top three is Penn State. And yet, Penn State’s best wins are Purdue, Auburn and Minnesota — all unranked.
None of this is to suggest Michigan and Ohio State aren’t two of the three best teams in the country. They may well be. But even before the season began, it was obvious the path to get here was just a two-step process: Beat Penn State, meet up in Columbus on Nov. 26.
Must be nice.
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the power to expand the College Football Playoff wants the field to grow to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season.
But currently, expansion is scheduled to begin in 2026. So while discussions continue on how to move up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the already-determined model released by the commissioners and presidents.
The field will be composed of the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.
Here’s what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:
Seeds with byes
1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC
Remaining seeds (conference champs in bold)
5. Michigan 6. Tennessee 7. LSU 8. Alabama 9. Clemson 10. Utah 11. Penn State 12. UCF
First-round games
No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Michigan No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Tennessee No. 10 Utah at No. 7 LSU No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Georgia No. 10 Utah-No. 7 LSU winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 11 Penn State-No. 6 Tennessee winner vs. No. 3 TCU No. 12 UCF-No. 5 Michigan winner vs. No. 4 USC
Top résumés
1. Georgia
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 44 | SOR: 2 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee 27-13 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Kentucky Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
No. 2 Ohio State
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 60 | SOR: 4 Biggest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State 44-31 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship, No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24
No. 3 Michigan
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 82 | SOR: 5 Biggest win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State 41-17 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Ohio State Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl, No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11
No. 4 TCU
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 38 | SOR: 1 Biggest win: Oct. 22 vs. Texas 17-10 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Baylor Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 5 Tennessee
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 3 | SOR: 3 Biggest win: Oct. 8 at LSU 40-13 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at South Carolina Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 6 LSU
Record: 8-2 | SOS: 11 | SOR: 7 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama 32-31 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Texas A&M Last playoff appearance: 2020 CFP National Championship: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25
No. 7 USC
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 65 | SOR: 10 Biggest win: Sept. 24 at Oregon State 17-14 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at UCLA Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 8 Clemson
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 55 | SOR: 8 Biggest win: Oct. 1 vs. NC State 30-20 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina Last playoff appearance: 2021 Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea has promoted Steve Gregory to defensive coordinator and Nick Lezynski to co-defensive coordinator, the school announced Monday.
Lea served as his own defensive coordinator last season after he demoted the previous coordinator, Nick Howell, following the 2023 season.
Gregory was associate defensive coordinator and secondary coach. He joined Vanderbilt following five seasons as an NFL assistant.
Lezynski is entering his fourth season at Vanderbilt. He was hired as linebackers coach and was promoted to defensive run game coordinator in 2023.
Under Lea’s direction, Gregory and Lezynski helped the Vanderbilt defense show marked improvement. The scoring defense rose from 126th in 2023 to 50th in 2024 and rushing defense from 104th to 52nd. Vanderbilt held consecutive opponents under 100 rushing yards (Virginia Tech and Alcorn State) for the first time since 2017, and a 17-7 win over Auburn marked the lowest point total by an SEC opponent since 2015.
The Commodores were 7-6, their first winning record since 2013.
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Texas is targeting former West Virginia and Troy coach Neal Brown for a role on its 2025 coaching staff, a source confirmed to ESPN.
The role is still to be determined, and a deal is not finalized but could be soon, the source said. Brown spent the past six seasons coaching West Virginia and went 37-35 before being fired in December. He went 35-16 at Troy with a Sun Belt championship in 2017.
247 Sports first reported Texas targeting Brown.
The 44-year-old Brown spent time in the state as offensive coordinator at Texas Tech from 2010 to 2012. He also held coordinator roles at Troy and Kentucky.
After back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances, Texas is set to open spring practice March 17.
Florida State and Clemson will vote Tuesday on an agreement that would ultimately result in the settlement of four ongoing lawsuits between the schools and the ACC and a new revenue-distribution strategy that would solidify the conference’s membership for the near future, sources told ESPN on Monday.
The ACC board of directors is scheduled to hold a call Tuesday to go over the settlement terms. In addition, Florida State and Clemson have both called board meetings to present the terms at noon ET Tuesday. All three boards must agree to the settlement for it to move forward, but sources throughout the league expect a deal to be reached.
According to sources, the settlement includes two key objectives: establishing a new revenue-distribution model based on viewership and a change in the financial penalties for exiting the league’s grant of rights before its conclusion in June 2036.
This new revenue-distribution model — or “brand initiative” — is based on a five-year rolling average of TV ratings, though some logistics of this formula remain tricky, including how to properly average games on the unrated ACC Network or other subscription channels. The brand initiative will be funded through a split in the league’s TV revenue, with 40% distributed evenly among the 14 longstanding members and 60% going toward the brand initiative and distributed based on TV ratings.
Top earners are expected to net an additional $15 million or more, according to sources, while some schools will see a net reduction in annual payout of up to about $7 million annually, an acceptable loss, according to several administrators at schools likely to be impacted, in exchange for some near-term stability.
The brand initiative is expected to begin for the coming fiscal year.
The brand fund, combined with the separate “success initiatives” fund approved in 2023 and enacted last year that rewards schools for postseason appearances, would allow teams that hit necessary benchmarks in each to close the revenue gap with the SEC and Big Ten, possibly adding in the neighborhood of $30 million or more annually should a school make a deep run in the College Football Playoff or NCAA basketball tournament and lead the way in TV ratings.
The success initiatives are funded largely through money generated by the new expanded College Football Playoff and additional revenue generated by the additions of Stanford, Cal and SMU, each of which is taking a reduced portion of TV money over the next six to eight years, while the new brand initiative will involve some schools in the conference receiving less TV revenue than before.
As a result of their inclusion in the College Football Playoff this past season, SMU athletic director Rick Hart said, the Mustangs and Tigers each earned $4 million through the success initiatives.
Sources have suggested Clemson and Florida State would be among the biggest winners of this brand-based distribution, though North Carolina and Miami are others expected to come out with a higher payout. Georgia Tech was actually the ACC’s highest-rated program in 2024, based in part on a Week 0 game against Florida State and a seven-overtime thriller against Georgia on the final Friday of the regular season.
Basketball ratings will be included in the brand initiative, too, but at a smaller rate than football, which is responsible for about 75% of the league’s TV revenue.
If ACC commissioner Jim Phillips is able to get this to the finish line Tuesday, it would be a big win for him and for the conference during a time of unprecedented change in collegiate athletics — particularly for a league that many speculated would break apart when litigation between the ACC and Florida State and Clemson began in 2023.
Both schools would consider it a win as well after they decided to file lawsuits in their home states in hopes of extricating themselves from a grant of rights agreement that, according to Florida State’s attorneys, could have meant paying as much as $700 million to leave the conference. The ACC countersued both schools to preserve the grant of rights agreement through 2036.
Although the settlement will not make substantive changes to the grant of rights, it is expected that there will be declining financial penalties for schools that exit before 2036, with the steepest decreases coming after 2030 — something that would apply to any ACC school, not just Clemson and Florida State.
The specific financial figures for schools to get released from the grant of rights were not readily available. But the total cost to exit the league after the 2029-30 season is expected to drop below $100 million, sources said.
The current language would require any school exiting before June 2036 to pay three times the operating budget — a figure that would be about $120 million — plus control of that team’s media rights through the conclusion of the grant of rights.
This was seen as a critical piece to the settlement, allowing flexibility for ACC schools amid a shifting college football landscape, particularly beyond the 2030 season, when TV deals for the Big Ten (2029-30), Big 12 (2030) and the next iteration of the College Football Playoff (2031) come up for renewal — a figure Florida State’s attorneys valued at more than $500 million over 10 years.
Sources told ESPN that there’d just be one number to exit the league, not the combination estimated by FSU of a traditional exit fee and the loss of media from the grant of rights.
In addition to securing the success and brand initiatives, viewed within the league as progressive ideas to help incentivize winning, Phillips also guided the recently announced ESPN option pickup to continue broadcasting the ACC through 2036.