US President Joe Biden has said it was “unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia, while the Associated Press news agency has quoted US officials saying it could have been fired by Ukraine, attempting to intercept a Russian airstrike against its territory.
The Polish president has so far said his country has no conclusive evidence as to who fired the missile and that the strike appeared to have been a one-off incident rather than an ongoing threat.
All-out war with Moscow is the last thing NATO wants, but allies will likely seek to respond in some way to Tuesday’s explosion, which left two people dead.
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In a first step, they will hold emergency talks on Wednesday morning at their headquarters in Brussels, with Poland set to request consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty.
Article 4 allows for an ally that feels threatened to discuss its concerns and any possible action.
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The scale of the reaction will depend on what happened, why, and what kind of message the 30 member states want to send to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
NATO has so far sought to avoid confrontation ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is not part of NATO, in February.
But the alliance has also been alert to the possibility of Russia seeking to test allied resolve by deliberately targeting its territory or accidentally harming a member state – such as Poland – that shares a border with Ukraine.
NATO forces will have war-gamed possible scenarios and how best to respond.
It means, once there is clarity about what went on, the reaction from NATO will likely be rapid. But it will require consensus.
If the explosions at Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, close to the border with Ukraine, appear to have happened by mistake or as the result of Ukrainian air defence systems blasting Russian missiles out of the sky, the allies could choose to bolster their own defences further rather than go on the offensive.
If, as seems far less likely, it is established that Russia deliberately launched missiles at Poland, Moscow will have knowingly crossed a red line.
Allies have made clear that they will strike back if any part of NATO is attacked. This could even mean invoking Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty, which declares that an attack on one is an attack on all and could see NATO allies retaliate with military force.
The threat of an armed response to any armed attack is the cornerstone of the alliance’s ability to defend itself and its interests.
An attack by Russia against Poland would be a deliberate test of this resolve.
NATO will need to balance demonstrating that such action will not be tolerated and must never happen again, with the need to prevent triggering a wider war between two nuclear-armed opponents.
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
Image: The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
Image: The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Image: Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
Image: The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
Image: The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.