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A deadly missile blast in Poland marks the first time Russia’s war in Ukraine has struck NATO soil in a serious test for the alliance.

But – judging by initial indications – the crisis does not look set to be the trigger for direct military conflict between NATO and Moscow.

Instead, it underlines the inherent risk of the Ukraine war drawing in NATO by accident – through a mistake or a miscalculation by Russia.

World leaders hold emergency meeting – follow live reaction

US President Joe Biden has said it was “unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia, while the Associated Press news agency has quoted US officials saying it could have been fired by Ukraine, attempting to intercept a Russian airstrike against its territory.

The Polish president has so far said his country has no conclusive evidence as to who fired the missile and that the strike appeared to have been a one-off incident rather than an ongoing threat.

All-out war with Moscow is the last thing NATO wants, but allies will likely seek to respond in some way to Tuesday’s explosion, which left two people dead.

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In a first step, they will hold emergency talks on Wednesday morning at their headquarters in Brussels, with Poland set to request consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

Article 4 allows for an ally that feels threatened to discuss its concerns and any possible action.

The scale of the reaction will depend on what happened, why, and what kind of message the 30 member states want to send to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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NATO has so far sought to avoid confrontation ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is not part of NATO, in February.

But the alliance has also been alert to the possibility of Russia seeking to test allied resolve by deliberately targeting its territory or accidentally harming a member state – such as Poland – that shares a border with Ukraine.

NATO forces will have war-gamed possible scenarios and how best to respond.

It means, once there is clarity about what went on, the reaction from NATO will likely be rapid. But it will require consensus.

Read more:
Missile strike on Poland may be deliberate attempt to test NATO – but overreacting risks dangerous escalation
What NATO Articles 4 and 5 say – as Russia accused of missile strike on member state

If the explosions at Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, close to the border with Ukraine, appear to have happened by mistake or as the result of Ukrainian air defence systems blasting Russian missiles out of the sky, the allies could choose to bolster their own defences further rather than go on the offensive.

If, as seems far less likely, it is established that Russia deliberately launched missiles at Poland, Moscow will have knowingly crossed a red line.

Allies have made clear that they will strike back if any part of NATO is attacked. This could even mean invoking Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty, which declares that an attack on one is an attack on all and could see NATO allies retaliate with military force.

The threat of an armed response to any armed attack is the cornerstone of the alliance’s ability to defend itself and its interests.

An attack by Russia against Poland would be a deliberate test of this resolve.

NATO will need to balance demonstrating that such action will not be tolerated and must never happen again, with the need to prevent triggering a wider war between two nuclear-armed opponents.

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity. 

It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.

Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.

The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.

The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.

Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.

A child at the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
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A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.

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Jaker is just 19.

We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.

He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.

They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.

“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”

And he says the impact has been deadly.

“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”

Jaker speaks to Sky's Cordelia Lynch
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Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch

An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
Image:
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

The situation in Cox’s is desperate.

People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.

In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.

Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.

And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.

Read more from Sky News:
Bangladesh leader reacts to ‘House of Mirrors’ prison
Inside Bangladesh’s ‘death squad’ jails

Sri Lanka rescues more than 100 people believed to be Rohingya refugees

Teknaf in Cox's Bazar - where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
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Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River

Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.

Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.

But not for the military or AA, he says.

Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.

“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.

Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
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Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause

It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.

But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.

In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.

Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
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Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar

Safura's son Aman had his foot blown off
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Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off

Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.

Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.

Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.

They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.

“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”

The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.

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Trump tells Gazans ‘you are dead’ if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

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Trump tells Gazans 'you are dead' if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.

The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.

The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.

In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.

President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress. Pic: AP
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File pic: AP

But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.

Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”

There are “American lives at stake,” she added.

Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.

A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.

Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.

Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters

On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.

“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”

Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.

“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”

Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.

Donald Trump welcomes Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters

The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.

The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.

Palestinians walk among the rubble of buildings, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, February 27, 2025. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
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Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.

Read more:
The competing plans for rebuilding Gaza
Freed Israeli hostage details captivity

Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.

Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.

Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

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Trump admits tariffs ‘disturbance’ as China says it is ‘ready for any type of war’ with US

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Trump admits tariffs 'disturbance' as China says it is 'ready for any type of war' with US

Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.

The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.

Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.

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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pic:Reuters/AP
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Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP

Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.

Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.

Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.

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Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped

Concern over threat to interest rates

A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.

A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.

The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

China imposes retaliatory tariffs

The president, however, said he was “just getting started” after 43 days into his second term.

China and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs against the US.

From next week China will add its own 15% levy on a range of agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.

An extra 10% will be added to soya beans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy products imports.

The country has also raised additional complaints against the US with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Read more:
Beijing’s patience is running thin
‘Dumb’: Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs
Political division in US has never looked like this

Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”

“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast

“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”

“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.

“He’s preparing for war.”

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

Compromise ‘as early as Wednesday’?

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.

He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.

Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”

Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).

But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.

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