Poland crisis is unlikely to trigger direct conflict – but does show the risk of NATO being drawn into the war by accident

Published

3 years ago

November 16, 2022

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A deadly missile blast in Poland marks the first time Russia’s war in Ukraine has struck NATO soil in a serious test for the alliance.

But – judging by initial indications – the crisis does not look set to be the trigger for direct military conflict between NATO and Moscow.

Instead, it underlines the inherent risk of the Ukraine war drawing in NATO by accident – through a mistake or a miscalculation by Russia.

World leaders hold emergency meeting – follow live reaction

US President Joe Biden has said it was “unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia, while the Associated Press news agency has quoted US officials saying it could have been fired by Ukraine, attempting to intercept a Russian airstrike against its territory.

The Polish president has so far said his country has no conclusive evidence as to who fired the missile and that the strike appeared to have been a one-off incident rather than an ongoing threat.

All-out war with Moscow is the last thing NATO wants, but allies will likely seek to respond in some way to Tuesday’s explosion, which left two people dead.

In a first step, they will hold emergency talks on Wednesday morning at their headquarters in Brussels, with Poland set to request consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

Article 4 allows for an ally that feels threatened to discuss its concerns and any possible action.

The scale of the reaction will depend on what happened, why, and what kind of message the 30 member states want to send to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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NATO has so far sought to avoid confrontation ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is not part of NATO, in February.

But the alliance has also been alert to the possibility of Russia seeking to test allied resolve by deliberately targeting its territory or accidentally harming a member state – such as Poland – that shares a border with Ukraine.

NATO forces will have war-gamed possible scenarios and how best to respond.

It means, once there is clarity about what went on, the reaction from NATO will likely be rapid. But it will require consensus.

If the explosions at Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, close to the border with Ukraine, appear to have happened by mistake or as the result of Ukrainian air defence systems blasting Russian missiles out of the sky, the allies could choose to bolster their own defences further rather than go on the offensive.

If, as seems far less likely, it is established that Russia deliberately launched missiles at Poland, Moscow will have knowingly crossed a red line.

Allies have made clear that they will strike back if any part of NATO is attacked. This could even mean invoking Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty, which declares that an attack on one is an attack on all and could see NATO allies retaliate with military force.

The threat of an armed response to any armed attack is the cornerstone of the alliance’s ability to defend itself and its interests.

An attack by Russia against Poland would be a deliberate test of this resolve.

NATO will need to balance demonstrating that such action will not be tolerated and must never happen again, with the need to prevent triggering a wider war between two nuclear-armed opponents.

World

Trump’s USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Published

7 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Trump's USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.

Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.

“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.

USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.

The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.

Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.

USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.

Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.

But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.

In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.

The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.

Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.

The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.

World

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Published

9 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.

An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.

The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.

The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.

Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.

Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.

Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.

Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.

The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.

The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.

Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.

Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.

World

Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Published

16 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.

The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.

On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”

At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.

The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.

An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.

She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.

The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.

An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.

Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.