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Two people are reported to have been killed in Poland near the Ukrainian border by a Russian missile.

It didn’t take long for talk of Article 5 to surface – the part of the North Atlantic Treaty that binds all NATO members to protect the country that has been attacked.

But going straight for Article 5 skips a number of important steps that must be taken.

What is the next step?

General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of UK Joint Forces Command, told Sky News: “All eyes will now be on the site of the explosion, and experts in the technology will be looking for the missile debris and other debris to identify what it was that killed these two poor souls.

“And then when they’ve identified what it was, they can start to investigate how it got there and what was behind it.

“And really only when that is clearer – and clear, in my view – should the North Atlantic Council and NATO members take a definitive position on this.

“Because, to do so beforehand would imply they were prepared to decide on something really significant in the absence of actually knowing the facts.”

‘Crisis situation’ as NATO responds – follow live reaction

General Sir Richard said many of these facts will probably be established in daylight – it was late when the explosion happened – and he added that bits of the missile can be found and radar tracks through the sky can also be examined.

Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff, explained to Sky News the importance of this stage, saying: “If we take – or anybody takes – decisions on poor information then we’re bound to make poor decisions.”

So what happens while the investigation is under way?

Lord Dannatt said that one of the most important things at this stage is that the countries involved keep talking, saying: “The open channels and back channels should be being worked vigorously at the present moment to find out not just what happened but why it happened.”

At the same time, the other vital thing is what Lord Dannatt and General Sir Richard described as “cool heads and facts”.

Lord Dannatt said: “Establishing what has happened is really important and then cool heads are needed to analyse what our response should be.

“At this stage, we should be very, very cautious.”

General Sir Richard added: “We need to know what happened, what the intent was behind it and then people should take a view on it.

“I think an international junior school football match whirring up the rhetoric around this is deeply unhelpful.”

Read more:
Russian missile’ kills two in Poland
Missile strike on Poland may be an attempt to test NATO

What is likely to have happened?

Lord Dannatt said there are two possibilities – a Russian error or the Russians testing NATO’s response.

He said: “Modern technology is pretty accurate, so it’s quite difficult to explain a way that this might have been an accident.

“If it wasn’t an accident and it was a test of the West’s response, that’s something that has got to be thought through very, very carefully.

“Cool heads are required to make sure this appalling war does not get escalated as a result of miscalculation.”

General Sir Richard said: “We should recognise it’s probably unlikely Russia would choose to target a random grain silo in a village with a population of just 400 to start a war with NATO.

“But if Russia has decided to do that, then this world of ours is taking a turn that no one could have imagined even a month ago.

“It’s far more likely that a missile has gone rogue – it has malfunctioned or been deflected – and ended up in Poland with tragic consequences.”

What is Article 5 and why are we even talking about it?

Article 5 is perhaps the best-known part of the North Atlantic Treaty – the collective defence principle that means an attack against one member is considered an attack on all.

It was not invoked when Russia invaded Ukraine, because Ukraine is not a NATO member. But Poland is a NATO member, so anything that is found to have been an attack on Poland could possibly reach the stage of Article 5.

So does that mean the UK and other NATO countries have to go to war now?

Hold your horses and breathe. We’ve already talked about the need for an investigation. But even then, before Article 5 comes Article 4.

Article 4 says: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

Late on Tuesday night, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu told Sky News that the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, will chair an emergency meeting of the 30 member states in Brussels on Wednesday.

Reuters news agency reported that this meeting is at the request of Poland on the basis of Article 4.

The report cited two European diplomats, one of whom said the alliance would act cautiously and needed time to verify exactly what had happened.

It’s not clear what form this stage will take or how long it might last.

Any country can invoke Article 4 and NATO’s own website says that all decisions are made by consensus.

Article 4 does not always have to lead to NATO entering a conflict.

Has Article 4 been invoked before?

Since NATO was created in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times and you’ll see below that all-out war is not the default option:
• On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• On 26 July 2015, Turkey made the same request following terror attacks and to inform allies of the measures it was taking
• On 3 March 2014, Poland invoked it as tensions increased in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s aggressive actions
• In 2012, Turkey invoked it twice – once in June after one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian air defence and in October when five Turkish civilians were killed by Syrian shelling. In November, NATO agreed to Turkey’s request for the deployment of Patriot missiles as a defensive measure
• On 10 February 2002, Turkey invoked the article as a result of the armed conflict in neighbouring Iraq. NATO agreed a package of defensive measures and conducted Operation Display Deterrence

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Sudan war: Torture, rape and forced starvation as paramilitaries suffocate besieged city

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Sudan war: Torture, rape and forced starvation as paramilitaries suffocate besieged city

Faces marked by terror and torment fill North Darfur’s displacement camps.

Their eyes fill with despair as they describe what they have survived during a 16-month siege on one of Sudan‘s oldest cities.

It has entrapped their loved ones and spread armed violence, leaving village after village burnt to the ground.

Extreme cases of torture, rape and forced starvation are shared again and again in horrifying detail.

This elderly man told us he was blinded by the RSF when he tried to flee
Image:
This elderly man told us he was blinded by the RSF when he tried to flee

Women collapse into sobs as they contemplate the future and the elderly raise their hands to the sky, trembling and empty, to pray for overdue relief.

In shelters which have seen little to no humanitarian aid, camp directors hand us lists showing requests for clean water, medical supplies and food. Even the trademark white United Nations tarp is scarce.

Some frayed tent material is used to close the gaps in the stick-lined walls that surround the traditional huts displaced families have built for themselves.

They use them as a temporary refuge from the battles that rage for control of the regional capital, Al Fashir.

Instead of fleeing into nearby Chad, they wait here for news that the siege has been lifted and they may finally be able to return.

But that news may never come.

The battle for Al Fashir – and Sudan

Al Fashir is being suffocated to death by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as they push to claim full control of the Darfur region as a base for their parallel government, after the military recaptured the capital Khartoum and other key sites in central Sudan.

Close to a million people are facing famine in Al Fashir and surrounding camps as the RSF enforces a full blockade, launching armed attacks on volunteers and aid workers risking their lives to bring in food.

Inside the city, thousands are bombarded by almost daily shelling from surrounding RSF troops.

The RSF have physically reinforced their siege with a berm – a raised earth mound. First spotted by Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, the berm is visible from space.

The Sudan war started in April 2023, when long-simmering tensions between the Sudanese army and the RSF broke out in Khartoum.

UN agencies said in July that some 40,000 people have been killed and almost 13 million displaced.

Relevant descriptionSeveral mediation attempts have failed to secure a humanitarian access mechanism or any lulls in fighting.

‘We could hear some of them being killed’

As the bombs drop on Al Fashir, war-wounded civilians travel by road to the last functioning hospital in the state. But the beds in Tina Hospital are largely empty.

The facility cannot afford to provide free or subsidised treatment to the people that need it.

“It is so difficult. This hospital cannot care for a patient without money,” says Dr Usman Adam, standing over an emaciated teenager with a gunshot wound in his stomach.

“We need support.

“Either medication or money to the victims – by anyhow, we need support.”

Maaz, 18, a victim of a gunshot wound, is treated in the last functioning hospital in North Darfur
Image:
Maaz, 18, a victim of a gunshot wound, is treated in the last functioning hospital in North Darfur

In nearby camps, women are grieving brothers, fathers, and husbands killed, missing or still trapped inside Al Fashir. Many of them were forced to face Rapid Support Forces (RSF) torture as they tried to escape.

“If you don’t have money to pay ransom, they take you inside a room that looks like an office and say ‘if you don’t have anything we will kill you or worse’,” says 20-year-old mother Zahra, speaking to us at a girls’ school in Tine that is now a makeshift shelter.

“They beat the men, robbed them and whipped them. We could hear some of them being killed while we women were rounded up on a mat and threatened. We gave them money, but they took the other girls into a room, and we couldn’t tell if they were beaten or raped.”

Zahra was threatened by the RSF and heard people being killed
Image:
Zahra was threatened by the RSF and heard people being killed

The women around her on the mat echo Zahra’s anguish.

“They beat us, tortured us, humiliated us – everything you can imagine!” one yells out in tears.

A mother named Leila sits next to her four children and stares down at the ground. I ask her if she has hope of returning to Al Fashir, and she starts to say no as the women nearby shout: “Yes! We will return by the grace of God.”

Leila complies with weak affirmation, but her eyes have the haunting resignation of permanent loss. Her city, as she knows it, is gone.

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Babies and young children silently stare out from their laps. Many of them wear the signs of physical shock. An older woman on the mat tells us her infant grandson was blinded by the extreme conditions of their escape and takes us to see him and his mother in their hut.

“We fled Al Fashir to Tawila camp while I was heavily pregnant,” says Nadeefa, as her son Mustafa cries on her lap, unable to focus his eyes.

Mustafa was blinded as a newborn after his mother fled the RSF
Image:
Mustafa was blinded as a newborn after his mother fled the RSF

“After I had given birth, we made the journey here. Mustafa was only 16 days old and could not handle the harsh conditions. As time went on, we realised he couldn’t see. We think he was blinded as a newborn on the road.”

Her mother and mother-in-law sit on the mat next to her and take turns trying to calm Mustafa down. Her mother-in-law Husna tells us that her own son, Mustafa’s father, is missing.

“We don’t know where my son is,” she says. “He disappeared as we fled.”

Mustafa's father went missing as the family fled the RSF
Image:
Mustafa’s father went missing as the family fled the RSF

‘They killed my children’

An elderly woman, Hawa, approaches us in the same yard with her own story to tell.

“These people [the RSF] killed my children. They killed my in-laws. They orphaned my grandchildren. They killed two of my sons.

“One of my daughters gave birth on the road and I brought her with me to this camp. I don’t have anything,” she says, trembling as she stands.

“They raped my two younger daughters in front of me. There is nothing more than that. They fled from shame and humiliation. I haven’t seen them since.”

The RSF raped Hawa's daughters in front of her
Image:
The RSF raped Hawa’s daughters in front of her

Dr Afaf Ishaq, the camp director and emergency response room (EER) volunteer, is sobbing nearby.

“I have dealt with thousands and thousands of cases, I am on the verge of a mental breakdown,” she says.

“Sometimes in the morning, I have my tea and forget that I need to eat or how to function. I just sit listening to testimony after testimony in my head and feel like I am hallucinating.”

Everyone we speak to points to her as a source of relief and help, but Dr Ishaq is largely carrying the burden alone. When haphazard financial support for the ERR community kitchens ends, she says people flock to her complaining of hunger.

Dr Ishaq lives in the camp by herself after fleeing her home in Khartoum at the start of the war in April 2023. She says she quickly escaped after her husband joined the RSF.

Dr Afaf Ishaq has seen thousands of cases of violence and sexual violence
Image:
Dr Afaf Ishaq has seen thousands of cases of violence and sexual violence

Since then, she has been constantly reminded of the atrocities committed by her husband’s ranks in Khartoum, her hometown Al Fashir and the ethnic violence they are carrying out across the region.

“The RSF focuses on ethnicity,” she says. “If you are from the Zaghawa, Massalit, Fur – from Darfuri tribes – you should be killed, you should be raped.

“If they find that your mother or father are from another tribe like Rizeigat or Mahamid – they won’t rape you, they won’t touch you.”

The RSF has besieged Al Fashir for 16 months. File pic: Reuters
Image:
The RSF has besieged Al Fashir for 16 months. File pic: Reuters

A message for the West

In January, the Biden administration determined that the RSF are carrying out genocide in Darfur, 20 years after former US secretary of state Colin Powell made the declaration in 2004.

But the designation has done little to quell the violence.

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Sudan’s government has accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying arms and logistical support to the RSF. The UAE denies these claims but many on the ground in Darfur say its role in this war is accepted as fact.

The silence from the UAE’s allies in the West, including the UK and US, is felt loudly here – punctuated by gunfire and daily bombs.

Dr Ishaq fled her home in Khartoum at the start of the war after her husband joined the RSF
Image:
Dr Ishaq fled her home in Khartoum at the start of the war after her husband joined the RSF

Dr Ishaq’s distress ratches up when I ask her about neglect from the international community.

“I direct my blame to the international community. How can they speak of human rights and ignore what is happening here?

“Where is the humanity?”

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Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann case refuses to speak to British police

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Prime suspect in Madeleine McCann case refuses to speak to British police

The prime suspect in the disappearance of Madeleine McCann has refused to be interviewed by the Metropolitan Police.

German drifter Christian B, as he is known under privacy laws, became a leading person of interest following the three-year-old British girl’s disappearance from a holiday resort in Portugal in 2007.

He is expected to be released from a jail in Germany as soon as Wednesday, at the end of a sentence for raping an elderly woman in Praia da Luz in 2005.

The Met said it sent an “international letter of request” to the 49-year-old for him to speak with them – but he rejected it.

Madeleine vanished shortly after she was left sleeping by her parents, Kate and Gerry McCann, who went for dinner in a nearby restaurant in Praia da Luz.

The search for the British toddler has gone on for 18 years
Image:
The search for the British toddler has gone on for 18 years

The Met said Christian B remains a suspect in its own investigation – with Portuguese and German authorities also probing Madeleine’s disappearance.

He has previously denied any involvement.

More on Madeleine Mccann

Detective Chief Inspector Mark Cranwell, a senior investigating officer, said the force will “continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry” in the absence of an interview with Christian B.

He said: “For a number of years we have worked closely with our policing colleagues in Germany and Portugal to investigate the disappearance of Madeleine McCann and support Madeleine’s family to understand what happened…

“We have requested an interview with this German suspect but, for legal reasons, this can only be done via an International Letter of Request which has been submitted.

“It was subsequently refused by the suspect. In the absence of an interview, we will nevertheless continue to pursue any viable lines of inquiry.”

Madeleine was taken from her family's apartment while her parents dined in a nearby restaurant
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Madeleine was taken from her family’s apartment while her parents dined in a nearby restaurant

In June, a hit-and-run theory emerged in connection with Madeleine’s death.

But her mother, Kate, has long dismissed the suggestion her daughter managed to get out of the apartment alone.

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Sky’s Martin Brunt investigates the hit-and-run theory in the case of Madeleine McCann

A number of searches have been carried out by German, Portuguese and British authorities since her disappearance – with the latest taking place near the Portuguese municipality of Lagos in June.

In 2023, investigators carried out searches near the Barragem do Arade reservoir, about 30 miles from Praia da Luz.

Christian B spent time in the area between 2000 and 2017 and had photographs and videos of himself near the reservoir.

In October last year, the suspect was cleared by a German court of unrelated sexual offences, alleged to have taken place in Portugal between 2000 and 2017.

The total funding given to the Met’s investigation, titled Operation Grange, has been more than £13.2m since 2011 after a further £108,000 was secured from the government in April.

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Russia’s war rehearsals are worrying Europe – but they do offer NATO one thing

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Russia's war rehearsals are worrying Europe – but they do offer NATO one thing

On NATO’s doorstep, Russia is rehearsing for war.

It has deployed tanks, battleships and supersonic bombers for military drills with Belarus that are happening on land, at sea and in the air.

‘Zapad-2025′ are the allies’ first joint exercises since the invasion of Ukraine, and on Sunday involved the launch of a hypersonic missile in the Barents Sea.

“There are several strategic goals here that [Russia and Belarus] want to achieve,” Hanna Liubakova, an independent Belarusian journalist, told Sky News.

“Scare, show that they are capable, show that they can threaten… and of course, they’re also checking what the reaction and response could be.”

The reaction so far has been frosty, to say the least.

A Russian nuclear submarine sets out to sea during the practice run. Pic: AP.
Image:
A Russian nuclear submarine sets out to sea during the practice run. Pic: AP.

Russia launches a Zircon hypersonic missile at a target during the Zapad joint strategic exercise. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Russia launches a Zircon hypersonic missile at a target during the Zapad joint strategic exercise. Pic: Reuters

Ahead of the drills, Poland closed its border with Belarus and deployed more than 30,000 troops as part of its own military exercises.

Lithuania is also holding drills and said it would bolster defences along its frontiers with Russia and Belarus.

The authorities in Minsk, and in Moscow, insist the drills are defensive and not aimed at any other country.

A Russian nuclear submarine sets out to sea during the practice run. Pic: AP.
Image:
A Russian nuclear submarine sets out to sea during the practice run. Pic: AP.

On Friday, the Kremlin even described Europe’s concerns as “emotional overload”.

But the last time these drills happened four years ago, it led to a massive build-up of Russian troops in Belarus, which Moscow then used for part of its invasion of Ukraine a few months later.

And the drills aren’t the only thing Europe is worried about.

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The show of strength comes at a time of heightened tension after recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace – first in Poland and then Romania.

There’s a feeling in the West that the drones and drills are a test of NATO’s defences and Western resolve.

But you’re unlikely to find that opinion on the streets of the Belarusian capital, Minsk.

“There is no aggression,” Mikhail told Sky News. “Exercises are normal, especially planned ones. So I think it’s fine.”

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

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According to Kristina, Russia and Belarus are “not the aggressors”.

“I think our head of state [Alexander Lukashenko] will solve this issue and we will support him. He’s not aggravating the situation.”

A provocation or not, the drills offer NATO a fresh chance to scrutinise Russia’s military, after three-and-a-half years of costly combat in Ukraine.

It would feel a lot more comfortable, though, if they weren’t happening so close to home.

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