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Two people are reported to have been killed in Poland near the Ukrainian border by a Russian missile.

It didn’t take long for talk of Article 5 to surface – the part of the North Atlantic Treaty that binds all NATO members to protect the country that has been attacked.

But going straight for Article 5 skips a number of important steps that must be taken.

What is the next step?

General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of UK Joint Forces Command, told Sky News: “All eyes will now be on the site of the explosion, and experts in the technology will be looking for the missile debris and other debris to identify what it was that killed these two poor souls.

“And then when they’ve identified what it was, they can start to investigate how it got there and what was behind it.

“And really only when that is clearer – and clear, in my view – should the North Atlantic Council and NATO members take a definitive position on this.

“Because, to do so beforehand would imply they were prepared to decide on something really significant in the absence of actually knowing the facts.”

‘Crisis situation’ as NATO responds – follow live reaction

General Sir Richard said many of these facts will probably be established in daylight – it was late when the explosion happened – and he added that bits of the missile can be found and radar tracks through the sky can also be examined.

Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff, explained to Sky News the importance of this stage, saying: “If we take – or anybody takes – decisions on poor information then we’re bound to make poor decisions.”

So what happens while the investigation is under way?

Lord Dannatt said that one of the most important things at this stage is that the countries involved keep talking, saying: “The open channels and back channels should be being worked vigorously at the present moment to find out not just what happened but why it happened.”

At the same time, the other vital thing is what Lord Dannatt and General Sir Richard described as “cool heads and facts”.

Lord Dannatt said: “Establishing what has happened is really important and then cool heads are needed to analyse what our response should be.

“At this stage, we should be very, very cautious.”

General Sir Richard added: “We need to know what happened, what the intent was behind it and then people should take a view on it.

“I think an international junior school football match whirring up the rhetoric around this is deeply unhelpful.”

Read more:
Russian missile’ kills two in Poland
Missile strike on Poland may be an attempt to test NATO

What is likely to have happened?

Lord Dannatt said there are two possibilities – a Russian error or the Russians testing NATO’s response.

He said: “Modern technology is pretty accurate, so it’s quite difficult to explain a way that this might have been an accident.

“If it wasn’t an accident and it was a test of the West’s response, that’s something that has got to be thought through very, very carefully.

“Cool heads are required to make sure this appalling war does not get escalated as a result of miscalculation.”

General Sir Richard said: “We should recognise it’s probably unlikely Russia would choose to target a random grain silo in a village with a population of just 400 to start a war with NATO.

“But if Russia has decided to do that, then this world of ours is taking a turn that no one could have imagined even a month ago.

“It’s far more likely that a missile has gone rogue – it has malfunctioned or been deflected – and ended up in Poland with tragic consequences.”

What is Article 5 and why are we even talking about it?

Article 5 is perhaps the best-known part of the North Atlantic Treaty – the collective defence principle that means an attack against one member is considered an attack on all.

It was not invoked when Russia invaded Ukraine, because Ukraine is not a NATO member. But Poland is a NATO member, so anything that is found to have been an attack on Poland could possibly reach the stage of Article 5.

So does that mean the UK and other NATO countries have to go to war now?

Hold your horses and breathe. We’ve already talked about the need for an investigation. But even then, before Article 5 comes Article 4.

Article 4 says: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

Late on Tuesday night, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu told Sky News that the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, will chair an emergency meeting of the 30 member states in Brussels on Wednesday.

Reuters news agency reported that this meeting is at the request of Poland on the basis of Article 4.

The report cited two European diplomats, one of whom said the alliance would act cautiously and needed time to verify exactly what had happened.

It’s not clear what form this stage will take or how long it might last.

Any country can invoke Article 4 and NATO’s own website says that all decisions are made by consensus.

Article 4 does not always have to lead to NATO entering a conflict.

Has Article 4 been invoked before?

Since NATO was created in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times and you’ll see below that all-out war is not the default option:
• On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• On 26 July 2015, Turkey made the same request following terror attacks and to inform allies of the measures it was taking
• On 3 March 2014, Poland invoked it as tensions increased in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s aggressive actions
• In 2012, Turkey invoked it twice – once in June after one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian air defence and in October when five Turkish civilians were killed by Syrian shelling. In November, NATO agreed to Turkey’s request for the deployment of Patriot missiles as a defensive measure
• On 10 February 2002, Turkey invoked the article as a result of the armed conflict in neighbouring Iraq. NATO agreed a package of defensive measures and conducted Operation Display Deterrence

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Starmer and Zelenskyy discuss ending Russia’s ‘brutal war’ – as Putin says says he is open to bilateral talks on longer ceasefire

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Starmer and Zelenskyy discuss ending Russia's 'brutal war' - as Putin says says he is open to bilateral talks on longer ceasefire

Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about ending Russia’s “brutal war” on Ukraine in their latest phone call on Easter Monday, as Vladimir Putin said he was open to bilateral talks.

The prime minister and Ukrainian president spoke on Monday afternoon, when Sir Keir “reiterated his iron-clad support for Ukraine“.

A Downing Street spokesperson added that the prime minister “said that the UK supports Ukraine’s calls for Russia to commit to a full ceasefire and that now is the time for Putin to show he is serious about ending his brutal war”.

“They discussed the latest developments on the Coalition of the Willing, and looked forward to further progress towards a just and lasting peace,” the spokesperson added.

Mr Zelenskyy later said on social media that he had a “good and detailed conversation” with the prime minister, and added Ukrainian officials will be in London for talks on ending the war with Russia on Wednesday.

“We are ready to move forward as constructively as possible, just as we have done before, to achieve an unconditional ceasefire, followed by the establishment of a real and lasting peace,” he added.

The Ukrainian president added that the 30-hour Easter truce, which both Kyiv and Moscow accuse the other of violating, showed that Russia “are prolonging the war”.

It comes as Mr Putin proposed bilateral talks with Ukraine on a longer ceasefire, which would mark the first time Russia held such talks since a failed peace deal soon after the invasion in 2022.

Speaking to a state TV reporter, the Russian president said: “We always have a positive attitude towards a truce, which is why we came up with such an initiative (the Easter truce), especially since we are talking about the bright Easter days.”

When asked about Mr Zelenskyy’s calls to extend the 30-hour ceasefire into a 30-day pause on civilian targets, he added: “This is all a subject for careful study, perhaps even bilaterally. We do not rule this out.”

The Ukrainian president said on Sunday evening that the Russian army had “violated Putin’s ceasefire more than 2,000 times” during the day, and accused Russia of “failing” to “uphold its own promise of a ceasefire”.

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From Saturday: Why Putin offered an Easter truce?

It also comes after Donald Trump has said he hopes Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” after he and his secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that the US will walk away from efforts to broker a peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress soon.

The US president said on his Truth Social platform that both countries would “start to do big business” with the US after ending the war.

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Last month, Ukraine accepted Mr Trump’s proposal for a 30-day truce, but Mr Putin refused to back a full 30-day ceasefire, saying crucial issues of verification had not been sorted out.

He then said he would agree not to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, both sides have accused each other of breaking the moratorium on attacks on energy targets and at sea.

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Royal Navy’s flagship HMS Prince of Wales begins eight-month deployment

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Royal Navy's flagship HMS Prince of Wales begins eight-month deployment

The Royal Navy’s flagship HMS Prince of Wales is to begin an eight-month deployment to send a “powerful message” of the UK’s naval and air power.

Operation Highmast will take in joint exercises and visits with 40 countries across the Mediterranean, Middle East, southeast Asia, Japan and Australia.

The £3bn aircraft carrier is scheduled to sail from Portsmouth on Tuesday, accompanied from the navy base by Type 45 destroyer HMS Dauntless, to join a formation of warships, supply ships and aircraft off the coast of Cornwall.

HMS Prince of Wales, as the biggest class of ship in the Royal Navy, is leading Carrier Strike Group 25 (CSG25) with the involvement of around 2,500 personnel from the Royal Navy, 592 from the Royal Air Force and 900 from the Army.

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King Charles visited the aircraft carrier in March

Later during the deployment, as many as 4,500 military personnel will be involved in exercises in the Indo-Pacific region. Forces from Norway, Canada and Spain are among 12 other nations taking part in operations.

The CSG’s first task will be to join a NATO exercise off France testing aerial defences before the ships move on to the Mediterranean to work with an Italian-led carrier force and then head east via the Red Sea.

HMS Prince of Wales sails from Portsmouth Naval Base for preparations before a planned deployment of a carrier strike group to the Indo-Pacific region later this year. Picture date: Monday February 24, 2025.
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HMS Prince of Wales pictured at Portsmouth Naval Base in February. Pic: PA

Other military assets include a contingent of up to 24 Royal Air Force F-35B Lightning fighter jets, Merlin Mk2 anti-submarine helicopters, Merlin Mk4 Commando and Wildcat helicopters along with T-150 Malloy and Puma drones.

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Royal Navy exercises on HMS Dauntless

Commodore James Blackmore, CSG commander, said the deployment would send a “powerful message” of the UK’s naval and air power.

He said: “It’s about supporting key trade routes that exist from the Indo-Pacific region to the UK, and supporting partners and allies in the region, showing that we are there as a capable and credible force should it be required.

“Operation Highmast will demonstrate credible deterrence and our support to NATO and the rules-based international order.”

Defence Secretary, John Healey MP, called it an “immensely complex operation” which sends “a powerful message of deterrence to any adversary”.

“This is a unique opportunity for the UK to operate in close coordination with our partners and allies in a deployment that not only shows our commitment to security and stability, but also provides an opportunity to bolster our own economy and boost British trade and exports,” he added.

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JD Vance and his family arrive in India after Trump called country ‘big abuser’ on trade

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JD Vance and his family arrive in India after Trump called country 'big abuser' on trade

US vice president JD Vance has arrived in Delhi for a four-day visit to India as the countries look to negotiate on tariffs, a bilateral trade deal and strengthen their ties.

Mr Vance was accompanied by his wife Usha – whose parents moved from India to the US – their three children Ewan, Vivek and Mirabel and fellow government officials as he landed on Monday morning.

The visit comes weeks after US President Donald Trump imposed and then paused a sweeping tariff regime against around 60 countries, including India.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Second Lady Usha Vance arrive in New Delhi, India.
Pic: Reuters
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JD and Usha Vance landed in New Delhi. Pic: Reuters

In a statement after their meeting in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s office said he “welcomed the significant progress” in negotiations for an expected trade deal between the US and India.

It added that he and Mr Vance “noted continued efforts towards enhancing cooperation in energy, defence, strategic technologies and other areas”, and also “exchanged views on various regional and global issues of mutual interest, and called for dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward”.

Mr Modi also “conveyed his warm greetings to President Trump” ahead of his visit to India later this year.

JD Vance and Narendra Modi in New Dehli. Pic: AP
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JD Vance and Narendra Modi in New Delhi. Pic: AP

An announcement was expected on the countries’ TRUST (Transforming Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) partnership, a programme aimed at strengthening their cooperation in defence, critical minerals, AI, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy and space.

The Trump administration is also pushing India to buy defence equipment.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance reviews troops, upon his arrival in New Delhi, India, April 21, 2025. Kenny Holston/Pool via REUTERS
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JD Vance walks past troops after arriving in New Delhi. Pic: Reuters

The US is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at $190bn, with a trade deficit of about $46bn in India’s favour.

Both countries are engaged in negotiating a bilateral trade agreement and aim to double trade to $500bn by 2030.

Mr Trump has previously labelled India a “tariff king” and a “big abuser” on trade. He also recently shared a report which stated Indian tariffs on agricultural products were among the highest in the world.

The US president had slapped a 26% tariff on India, calling it a discounted rate against an average 52% duty on American products.

Over the weekend, Mr Vance met Pope Francis in one of the pontiff’s last public appearances before his death on Easter Monday.

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JD Vance and Pope ‘exchange Easter greetings’

Visit comes amid rising tensions with China

Mr Vance’s visit is also aimed at strategically balancing China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, with India seen as a counterweight of the two most populous countries.

China has warned it will take “resolute and reciprocal” countermeasures against countries that strike deals with the US at the expense of Chinese interests.

Relations between India and China have been tense over the years.

Dancers wearing traditional attires stand in front of a poster depicting U.S. Vice President JD Vance, on the day of his arrival, in New Delhi, India, April 21, 2025. Kenny Holston/Pool via REUTERS
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Dancers wearing traditional attire stand in front of a poster of Mr Vance. Pic: Reuters

The two countries, separated by the Himalayan mountain range, share a 2,000-mile border, most of which is not demarcated.

In 2020, in Galwan, soldiers of both countries had a face-off in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed. There was a national uproar and since then diplomatic relations have been low.

High-level military talks have been taking place to sort the border disputes, but have so far been inconclusive.

India’s move to strengthen ties with the US will increase friction with its northern neighbour, as China sees itself being isolated and targeted by the Trump administration.

Last week, China’s President Xi Jinping embarked on a tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, and said: “There are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars.”

Meanwhile, India has raised concerns over the treatment of Indian students who have received visa revocation notices in the US.

A survey by the American Immigration Lawyers Association found 50% of those reporting revocations were Indian. The US government has denied targeting Indians specifically with its actions.

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