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Two people are reported to have been killed in Poland near the Ukrainian border by a Russian missile.

It didn’t take long for talk of Article 5 to surface – the part of the North Atlantic Treaty that binds all NATO members to protect the country that has been attacked.

But going straight for Article 5 skips a number of important steps that must be taken.

What is the next step?

General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of UK Joint Forces Command, told Sky News: “All eyes will now be on the site of the explosion, and experts in the technology will be looking for the missile debris and other debris to identify what it was that killed these two poor souls.

“And then when they’ve identified what it was, they can start to investigate how it got there and what was behind it.

“And really only when that is clearer – and clear, in my view – should the North Atlantic Council and NATO members take a definitive position on this.

“Because, to do so beforehand would imply they were prepared to decide on something really significant in the absence of actually knowing the facts.”

‘Crisis situation’ as NATO responds – follow live reaction

General Sir Richard said many of these facts will probably be established in daylight – it was late when the explosion happened – and he added that bits of the missile can be found and radar tracks through the sky can also be examined.

Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff, explained to Sky News the importance of this stage, saying: “If we take – or anybody takes – decisions on poor information then we’re bound to make poor decisions.”

So what happens while the investigation is under way?

Lord Dannatt said that one of the most important things at this stage is that the countries involved keep talking, saying: “The open channels and back channels should be being worked vigorously at the present moment to find out not just what happened but why it happened.”

At the same time, the other vital thing is what Lord Dannatt and General Sir Richard described as “cool heads and facts”.

Lord Dannatt said: “Establishing what has happened is really important and then cool heads are needed to analyse what our response should be.

“At this stage, we should be very, very cautious.”

General Sir Richard added: “We need to know what happened, what the intent was behind it and then people should take a view on it.

“I think an international junior school football match whirring up the rhetoric around this is deeply unhelpful.”

Read more:
Russian missile’ kills two in Poland
Missile strike on Poland may be an attempt to test NATO

What is likely to have happened?

Lord Dannatt said there are two possibilities – a Russian error or the Russians testing NATO’s response.

He said: “Modern technology is pretty accurate, so it’s quite difficult to explain a way that this might have been an accident.

“If it wasn’t an accident and it was a test of the West’s response, that’s something that has got to be thought through very, very carefully.

“Cool heads are required to make sure this appalling war does not get escalated as a result of miscalculation.”

General Sir Richard said: “We should recognise it’s probably unlikely Russia would choose to target a random grain silo in a village with a population of just 400 to start a war with NATO.

“But if Russia has decided to do that, then this world of ours is taking a turn that no one could have imagined even a month ago.

“It’s far more likely that a missile has gone rogue – it has malfunctioned or been deflected – and ended up in Poland with tragic consequences.”

What is Article 5 and why are we even talking about it?

Article 5 is perhaps the best-known part of the North Atlantic Treaty – the collective defence principle that means an attack against one member is considered an attack on all.

It was not invoked when Russia invaded Ukraine, because Ukraine is not a NATO member. But Poland is a NATO member, so anything that is found to have been an attack on Poland could possibly reach the stage of Article 5.

So does that mean the UK and other NATO countries have to go to war now?

Hold your horses and breathe. We’ve already talked about the need for an investigation. But even then, before Article 5 comes Article 4.

Article 4 says: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

Late on Tuesday night, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu told Sky News that the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, will chair an emergency meeting of the 30 member states in Brussels on Wednesday.

Reuters news agency reported that this meeting is at the request of Poland on the basis of Article 4.

The report cited two European diplomats, one of whom said the alliance would act cautiously and needed time to verify exactly what had happened.

It’s not clear what form this stage will take or how long it might last.

Any country can invoke Article 4 and NATO’s own website says that all decisions are made by consensus.

Article 4 does not always have to lead to NATO entering a conflict.

Has Article 4 been invoked before?

Since NATO was created in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times and you’ll see below that all-out war is not the default option:
• On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• On 26 July 2015, Turkey made the same request following terror attacks and to inform allies of the measures it was taking
• On 3 March 2014, Poland invoked it as tensions increased in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s aggressive actions
• In 2012, Turkey invoked it twice – once in June after one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian air defence and in October when five Turkish civilians were killed by Syrian shelling. In November, NATO agreed to Turkey’s request for the deployment of Patriot missiles as a defensive measure
• On 10 February 2002, Turkey invoked the article as a result of the armed conflict in neighbouring Iraq. NATO agreed a package of defensive measures and conducted Operation Display Deterrence

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Netanyahu faces condemnation over plan for Israel to take full military control of Gaza

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Netanyahu faces condemnation over plan for Israel to take full military control of Gaza

Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan for Israel to take full military control of the Gaza Strip has been condemned, amid fears a reoccupation could put the lives of Palestinians and the remaining Israeli hostages at risk.

Asked in a Fox News interview on Thursday if Israel would “take control of all of Gaza”, the prime minister replied: “We intend to, in order to assure our security, remove Hamas there, enable the population to be free of Gaza.”

Latest updates from war in Gaza

“We don’t want to keep it. We want to have a security perimeter,” he continued. “We want to hand it over to Arab forces that will govern it properly without threatening us and giving Gazans a good life.”

Israel already controls around 75% of Gaza and has largely sealed its borders.

To take full control, it would need to launch ground operations in the remaining areas that have not been destroyed, where most of Gaza’s two million population have sought refuge.

Israel’s security cabinet, which would need to approve the military operations, began a meeting on Thursday evening, but for now no official announcement has been made.

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Netanyahu on Israel’s plans for Gaza

Plan will ‘put hostages and soldiers in danger’

The plan has been criticised by many, including families of hostages being held by Hamas and a top Israeli Defence Force (IDF) official.

Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, said Mr Netanyahu promised her that he would pursue a deal to free the hostages.

She said in a post on X: “Someone who talks about a comprehensive deal doesn’t go and conquer the Strip and put hostages and soldiers in danger.

“Netanyahu and his partners are about to condemn [Matan] to death.”

Israel’s military chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, has warned against occupying Gaza, saying it would endanger the hostages and put further strain on the IDF, according to Israeli media reports.

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In an illustration of the kind of opposition Israel could face internationally if it purses the plan, a Jordanian official aid Arabs would “only support what Palestinians agree and decide on”.

“Security in Gaza must be done through legitimate Palestinian institutions,” the source said.

“Arabs will not be agreeing to Netanyahu’s policies nor clean his mess.”

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Israeli hostage families sail near Gaza

At least 42 more Palestinians killed by Israeli fire, say hospitals

It comes after at least 42 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes and shootings across southern Gaza on Thursday, according to local hospitals.

At least 13 of those people were seeking aid in an Israeli military zone where UN aid convoys are regularly overwhelmed by desperate crowds and looters.

An Israeli soldier, standing next to an Israeli flag, looks out across Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Image:
An Israeli soldier, standing next to an Israeli flag, looks out across Gaza. Pic: Reuters

Another two were killed on roads leading to sites run by the Israel- and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.

The GHF said there were no violent incidents at or near its sites on Thursday.

Read more:
Video of hostage released by Hamas
Aid sites are scenes of ‘orchestrated killing

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The war in Gaza began when Hamas killed about 1,200 people – mostly civilians – in its attack on 7 October 2023 and abducted 251 others. They still hold approximately 50 of those hostages – with 20 believed to be alive – after most of the others were released in ceasefires or other deals.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 61,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between militants and civilians in its count.

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Putin plays down idea of meeting Zelenskyy, saying ‘certain conditions’ must be met

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Putin plays down idea of meeting Zelenskyy, saying 'certain conditions' must be met

Vladimir Putin has played down the possibility of a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying that while it is possible, certain conditions must be met.

The Russian president was responding to an American proposal of a trilateral meeting between him, the Ukrainian president and Donald Trump.

The idea was floated by Steve Witkoff, the US president’s envoy during talks with Mr Putin on Wednesday, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.

War in Ukraine: Latest updates

Mr Ushakov said the three-way option was “simply mentioned by the American representative during the meeting in the Kremlin”.

He added, however: “This option was not specifically discussed.”

On the prospect of meeting Mr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin said: “I have already said many times that I have nothing against it in general – it is possible.”

However, he distanced himself from any such meeting happening soon, adding: “But certain conditions must be created for this. Unfortunately, we are still far from creating such conditions.”

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Mr Zelenskyy offered to speak to Vladimir Putin in May, challenging him to meet in Istanbul for talks on ending the war in Ukraine – an invitation the Russian leader declined.

While a trilateral meeting appears to be off the agenda, Mr Ushakov said an agreement had been reached for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to meet “in the coming days”.

After the US president touted a “very good prospect” of the leaders meeting for Ukraine ceasefire talks, Mr Ushakov said on Thursday that Russian and American officials had started working on the details.

“At the suggestion of the American side, an agreement was essentially reached to hold a bilateral meeting at the highest level in the coming days,” he said.

“We are now beginning concrete preparations together with our American colleagues.”

Regarding a trilateral meeting, Mr Ushakov said: “We propose, first of all, to focus on preparing a bilateral meeting with Trump, and we consider it most important that this meeting be successful and productive.”

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Will Putin agree to Trump’s condition to meet Zelenskyy?

It would be the first time the two leaders have met since Mr Trump returned to office, and follows a three-hour meeting between Mr Putin and Steve Witkoff in Moscow on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it appeared that Russia was “more inclined to a ceasefire”.

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The Ukrainian president said he planned to speak on Thursday to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as well as contacts from France and Italy.

He said he planned to discuss a ceasefire, a leaders’ summit and long-term security, adding: “Ukraine has never wanted war and will work toward peace as productively as possible.”

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A poll from Gallup suggests 69% of Ukrainians support a negotiated end to the war with Russia – an almost complete reversal from 2022, when 73% favoured fighting until victory.

Most said they were sceptical the war would end soon, with 68% saying they believed it was unlikely that active fighting would stop within the next 12 months.

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Trump vowed to end Ukraine war in first 24 hours of his presidency – nearly 200 days in, could he be close?

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Trump vowed to end Ukraine war in first 24 hours of his presidency  - nearly 200 days in, could he be close?

Seven hours is a long time in US politics.

At 10am, Donald Trump accused Russia of posing a threat to America’s national security.

By 5pm, Mr Trump said there was a “good prospect” of him meeting Vladimir Putin “soon”.

There had, he claimed, been “great progress” in talks between his special envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian president.

It’s difficult to gauge the chances of a meeting between the two leaders without knowing what “great progress” means.

Is Russia “inclined” towards agreeing a ceasefire, as Ukraine’s president now claims?

Is Mr Putin prepared to meet with his Ukrainian foe, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, too?

The very fact that we’re asking those questions suggests something shifted on a day when there was no expectation of a breakthrough.

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Zoo kills 12 healthy baboons to ease overcrowding

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Mr Trump repeatedly vowed to end the war within 24 hours of becoming president.

On day 198 of his presidency, he might, just might, be one step closer to achieving that.

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