There has been a higher than expected leap in the rate of inflation, to a 41-year high of 11.1% last month, led by the latest rise in energy bills.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed the increase, from 10.1% in September, as the cost of light and heating for homes rose further despite help from the government’s energy price guarantee that limits wholesale charges for gas and power.
Food was cited as the other major element adding inflationary pressure during October, rising at the fastest annual pace since 1977.
The ONS estimated that the 11.1% reading for the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation was the highest since October 1981.
It added that prices rose between September and October 2022 by as much as they did in the entire year to July 2021.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rate of inflation to rise to 10.7% – itself still almost double the pace of wage growth.
Surging energy prices have been the main driver of the cost of living crisis – mostly a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that sent the cost of many commodities such as wheat, and the cost of producing them, through the roof.
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Wholesale energy costs currently remain below their conflict era peaks, raising hopes that the worst inflation is behind us.
However, there remains a lack of clarity on the support for energy bills beyond April, when the price guarantee will be reviewed. Further information could come in the chancellor’s autumn statement to MPs due on Thursday.
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Jeremy Hunt is tipped to protect the most vulnerable from the worst by raising benefits and pensions in line with inflation but has warned that we all face higher taxes to help balance the books.
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‘Taxes will rise for everyone’
The Bank of England had expected that inflation would have surged above 13% last month without the government energy bill intervention because average annual bills under the Ofgem-set price cap would have skyrocketed to around £3,450.
Policymakers were tipped, by financial markets, to impose a further 0.5 percentage points increase to Bank rate when its rate-setting committee meets again next month.
That would take the rate to 3.5%.
But the higher than expected inflation figure could mean a more aggressive rate rise is considered – piling even more misery on borrowers after November’s 0.75 percentage point hike.
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UK on the brink of recession?
The Bank has signalled that curbing inflation is its priority despite revealing last month that it expected the country was already in recession.
Official figures last week showed the economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to September.
The Bank has raised the prospect of seven further quarters of negative growth.
Rachelle Earwaker, senior economist for the living standards-focused Joseph Rowntree Foundation said of the gloom: “The cost of living has millions fearing for the future, contributed to by soaring cost rises for food, transport and energy.
“Every day sees still more stories of people selling their possessions, or borrowing money at punishing interest rates, just to afford these essentials.”
Head of research for the British Chambers of Commerce business group, David Bharier, said separate ONS data covering factory gate prices indicated that inflation was yet to peak.
“We speak to thousands of businesses who tell us this is unsustainable”, he said.
“Our research shows that confidence is falling fast as many SMEs find it almost impossible to absorb or pass on rising costs.
“While the Bank of England seeks to control inflation through further interest rate rises, this is a blunt instrument that fails to address the core drivers of inflation for most firms: soaring energy costs, global supply chain disruption, and rising staff costs due to labour shortages.
“Ahead of tomorrow’s autumn statement, businesses will need to see a clear plan from the chancellor to boost business investment and growth, as well as targeted measures that ease the specific causes of inflation.
“The UK economy otherwise faces a lethal combination of recession and runaway inflation.”
Schoolchildren are asking teachers how to strangle a partner during sex safely, a charity says, while official figures show an alarming rise in the crime related to domestic abuse cases.
Warning: This article contains references to strangulation, domestic abuse and distressing images.
It comes as a woman whose former partner almost strangled her to death in a rage has advised anyone in an abusive relationship to seek help and leave.
Bernie Ryan, chief executive of the Institute for Addressing Strangulation, has been running the charity since its inception in 2022 after non-fatal strangulation became a standalone offence.
“It’s the ultimate form of control,” she says.
She says perpetrators and victims are getting younger, while the reason is unclear, but strangulation has seeped into popular culture and social media.
“We hear lots of sex education providers, teachers saying that they’re hearing it in schools.
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“We know teachers have been asked, ‘how do I teach somebody to strangle safely?’
“Our message is there is no safe way to strangle – the anatomy is the anatomy. Reduction in oxygen to the brain or blood flow will result in the same medical consequences, regardless of context.”
Image: Bernie Ryan, CEO of the Institute for Addressing Strangulation
A recent review by Conservative peer Baroness Gabby Bertin recommended banning “degrading, violent and misogynistic content” online.
Violent pornography showing women being choked during sex she found was “rife on mainstream platforms”.
Ms Ryan says she “wants to make sure that young people don’t have access to activities that demonstrate that this is normal behaviour”.
Strangulation is a violent act that is often committed in abusive relationships.
It is the second most common method used by men to kill women, the first is stabbing.
According to statistics shared by the Crown Prosecution Service, in 2024 there was an almost 50% rise in incidents of non-fatal strangulation and suffocation – compared to the year before.
Image: Kerry Allan pleads for other victims of abuse to leave before it’s too late
Domestic abuse victim Kerry Allan has a message for anyone who is in an abusive relationship.
Kerry met Michael Cosgrove in September 2022. While she said “at the beginning it was really good”, within months he became physically abusive.
In August last year her friends found his profile on a dating app.
“I confronted him and he denied it. I knew we were going to get into a big argument and I couldn’t face it, so I said I was going to my mum’s for a few days and take myself away from the situation.
“I came back a few days later and stupidly I agreed we could try again and everything escalated from that.”
Image: Injuries to Kerry’s chest. Pic: CPS
In the early hours of 25 August the pair had come in from a night out at a concert and got into an argument.
“He was having a go at me, accusing me of flirting with other people, and I was angry. I told him he had a nerve after what he’d done to me in the week and how he humiliated me.
“I told him that I wanted to leave, that we were done and that I wanted to go to my mum’s and that’s when it got bad.
“He pinned me to the bed and that’s when he first strangled me.”
Image: Kerry’s neck injury. Pic: CPS
Kerry says this was the first time she’d ever been violently assaulted. Cosgrove was eerily silent as he eventually let go and Kerry gasped for air.
“I remember trying to get my breath back, I was crying and hyperventilating… I was sick on the bedroom floor and I was asking him to go.”
Cosgrove strangled her for a second time before letting go again.
“He was saying I wasn’t getting out of this bedroom alive. I was dead tonight, he hoped that I knew that. Just kept saying how I’d ruined his life.”
Image: Injury to Kerry’s eye. Pic: CPS
“I remember feeling a sort of shock thinking at this point, I’m not going to get out of this bedroom, he’s actually going to kill me.”
Kerry began screaming and shouting for help as loud as she could.
Her neighbours heard the commotion and called the police. While they were en route, Kerry was once again being assaulted.
Image: Bleeding in Kerry’s eye
“I ran over to the bedroom window and tried to jump out, he grabbed me as I went to open the window, and we struggled. And then I was back in the same position, he was on top of me on the bed, and his hands were round the throat again. But this time it didn’t stop.
“I remember trying to struggle and trying to kick out and hit him and I just kept thinking that I definitely was going to die, because at this point, it wasn’t stopping.”
The next memory Kerry has is opening her eyes to see police and paramedics in the bedroom.
Image: Michael Cosgrove. Pic: CPS
Cosgrove had heard the sirens, jumped out of the bedroom window and went to hide in Kerry’s car.
Kerry remembers opening her eyes to paramedics caring for her: “I remember thinking, I’m alive. I couldn’t believe it. I couldn’t believe that I was alive and I wasn’t dead. My last memory is him being on top of me with his hands on my throat.”
Image: Kerry met Michael Cosgrove in September 2022
She gives this advice to anyone who is in an abusive relationship: “Please speak to somebody, whether it’s friends, family, a work colleague, whether it’s somebody online, whether it’s a charity that you’re directed to, any sort of abuse is not okay.
“Whether it starts off emotional, they often start off that way, and they escalate, and they can escalate badly.
“Take what happened to me as a huge warning sign, because I wouldn’t want anyone else to be in the position I’ve been in the last eight months.”
Cosgrove was found guilty of attempting to murder Kerry and intentional strangulation.
The King echoed the words of his grandfather as he delivered a speech at the precise moment King George VI addressed the nation to mark VE Day 80 years ago.
At 9pm, Charles spoke at Horse Guards Parade in central London and called on the country to “rededicate ourselves” to “the cause of freedom” and “the prevention of conflict”.
His grandfather spoke to the nation from Buckingham Palace at 9pm on 8 May 1945, to thank the country for their contribution as war came to an end in Europe.
Image: King Charles III and Queen Camilla wave Union flags during the concert celebrating the 80th Anniversary of VE Day, held at the historic Horse Guards Parade in central London. Picture date: Thursday May 8, 2025.
Recalling the VE Day speeches, Charles said: “We should remind ourselves of the words of our great wartime leader, Sir Winston Churchill, who said ‘meeting jaw to jaw is better than war’.
“In so doing, we should also rededicate ourselves not only to the cause of freedom but to renewing global commitments to restoring a just peace where there is war, to diplomacy, and to the prevention of conflict.
“For as my grandfather put it, ‘We shall have failed, and the blood of our dearest will have flowed in vain, if the victory which they died to win does not lead to a lasting peace, founded on justice and established in good will’.
Stressing the responsibility we still hold today, he added: “Just as those exceptional men and women fulfilled their duty to each other, to humankind, and to God, bound by an unshakeable commitment to nation and service, in turn it falls to us to protect and continue their precious legacy – so that one day hence generations yet unborn may say of us: ‘they too bequeathed a better world’.”
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Image: King Charles III and Queen Camilla alongside the Waleses at the concert celebrating the 80th Anniversary of VE Day, held at the historic Horse Guards Parade in central London. Picture date: Thursday May 8, 2025. Pic: PA
The King’s words were designed to be a reminder of current conflicts.
In recent months, the monarch has been placed at the forefront of diplomatic matters, making his call for “unity” even more pertinent.
“The Allied victory being celebrated then, as now, was a result of unity between nations, races, religions and ideologies, fighting back against an existential threat to humanity,” the King said. “Their collective endeavour remains a powerful reminder of what can be achieved when countries stand together in the face of tyranny.”
After a week which has seen the Royal Family make it a priority to ensure VE Day commemorations have been special for the surviving veterans, the King thanked not just those who served in uniform but acknowledged the contribution of those left back home.
“We unite to celebrate and remember with an unwavering and heartfelt gratitude, the service and sacrifice of the wartime generation who made that hard-fought victory possible,” he said. “While our greatest debt is owed to all those who paid the ultimate price, we should never forget how the war changed the lives of virtually everyone.”
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King arrives at VE Day service
Like families up and down the country remembering VE Day, it was clear Charles’s mother, Queen Elizabeth II, was at the forefront of his mind.
Remembering his mother’s story of what happened when she was allowed to leave the palace, he said: “The celebration that evening was marked by my own late mother who, just 19 years old, described in her diary how she mingled anonymously in the crowds across central London and ‘walked for miles’ among them.
“The rejoicing continued into the next day, when she wrote ‘Out in the crowd again. Embankment, Piccadilly. Rained, so fewer people. Conga-ed into House. Sang till 2am. Bed at 3am!’.
Charles continued: “I do hope your celebrations tonight are almost as joyful, although I rather doubt I shall have the energy to sing until 2am, let alone lead you all in a giant conga from here back to Buckingham Palace.”
Earlier in the week, at a tea party held at Buckingham Palace, the King said to one veteran: “Do you do the conga? I remember doing congas with my grandmother round and round the house.”
Red Wall MPs should push for the two-child benefit cap to be lifted rather than a reversal of the winter fuel payment policy, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.
Baroness Harman, the former Labour Party chair, told Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast that this would hand the group a “progressive win” rather than simply “protesting and annoying Sir Keir Starmer” over winter fuel.
Earlier this week, a number of MPs in the Red Wall – Labour’s traditional heartlands in the north of England – reposted a statement on social media in which they said the leadership’s response to the local elections had “fallen on deaf ears”.
They singled out the cut to the winter fuel allowance as an issue that was raised on the doorstep and urged the government to rethink the policy, arguing doing so “isn’t weak, it takes us to a position of strength”.
But Baroness Harman said a better target for the group could be an overhaul of George Osborne’s two-child benefit cap.
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The cap, announced in 2015 as part of Lord David Cameron’s austerity measures, means while parents can claim child tax credit or Universal Credit payments for their first and second child, they can’t make claims for any further children they have.
Labour faced pressure to remove the cap in the early months of government, with ministers suggesting in February that they were considering relaxing the limit.
Baroness Harman told Beth Rigby that this could be a sensible pressure point for Red Wall MPs to target.
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She said: “It could be that they have a kind of progressive win, and it might not be a bad thing to do in the context of an overall strategy on child poverty.
“Let’s see whether instead of just protesting and annoying Sir Keir Starmer, they can build a bridge to a new progressive set of policies.”
Jo White, the Labour MP for Bassetlaw and a member of the Red Wall group, suggested that her party’s “connection” to a core group of voters “died” with the decision to means test the winter fuel payment for pensioners.
“We need to reset the government,” she told Electoral Dysfunction. “The biggest way to do that is by tackling issues such as winter fuel payments.
“I think we should raise the thresholds so that people perhaps who are paying a higher level of tax are the only people who are exempt from getting it.”
Image: Pic: AP
A group of MPs in the Red Wall, thought to number about 40, met on Tuesday night following the fallout of local election results in England, which saw Labour lose the Runcorn by-electionandcontrol of Doncaster Council to Reform UK.
Following the results, Sir Keir said “we must deliver that change even more quickly – we must go even further”.
Some Labour MPs believe it amounted to ignoring voters’ concerns.
One of the MPs who was present at the meeting told Sky News there was “lots of anger at the government’s response to the results”.
“People acknowledged the winter fuel allowance was the main issue for us on the doorstep,” they said.
“There is a lack of vision from this government.”
Another added: “Everyone was furious.”
Downing Street has ruled out a U-turn on means testing the winter fuel payment, following newspaper reports earlier this week that one might be on the cards.