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There has been a higher than expected leap in the rate of inflation, to a 41-year high of 11.1% last month, led by the latest rise in energy bills.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed the increase, from 10.1% in September, as the cost of light and heating for homes rose further despite help from the government’s energy price guarantee that limits wholesale charges for gas and power.

Food was cited as the other major element adding inflationary pressure during October, rising at the fastest annual pace since 1977.

The ONS estimated that the 11.1% reading for the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation was the highest since October 1981.

It added that prices rose between September and October 2022 by as much as they did in the entire year to July 2021.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rate of inflation to rise to 10.7% – itself still almost double the pace of wage growth.

Surging energy prices have been the main driver of the cost of living crisis – mostly a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that sent the cost of many commodities such as wheat, and the cost of producing them, through the roof.

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Wholesale energy costs currently remain below their conflict era peaks, raising hopes that the worst inflation is behind us.

However, there remains a lack of clarity on the support for energy bills beyond April, when the price guarantee will be reviewed. Further information could come in the chancellor’s autumn statement to MPs due on Thursday.

Jeremy Hunt is tipped to protect the most vulnerable from the worst by raising benefits and pensions in line with inflation but has warned that we all face higher taxes to help balance the books.

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‘Taxes will rise for everyone’

The Bank of England had expected that inflation would have surged above 13% last month without the government energy bill intervention because average annual bills under the Ofgem-set price cap would have skyrocketed to around £3,450.

Policymakers were tipped, by financial markets, to impose a further 0.5 percentage points increase to Bank rate when its rate-setting committee meets again next month.

That would take the rate to 3.5%.

But the higher than expected inflation figure could mean a more aggressive rate rise is considered – piling even more misery on borrowers after November’s 0.75 percentage point hike.

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UK on the brink of recession?

The Bank has signalled that curbing inflation is its priority despite revealing last month that it expected the country was already in recession.

Official figures last week showed the economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to September.

The Bank has raised the prospect of seven further quarters of negative growth.

Rachelle Earwaker, senior economist for the living standards-focused Joseph Rowntree Foundation said of the gloom: “The cost of living has millions fearing for the future, contributed to by soaring cost rises for food, transport and energy.

“Every day sees still more stories of people selling their possessions, or borrowing money at punishing interest rates, just to afford these essentials.”

Head of research for the British Chambers of Commerce business group, David Bharier, said separate ONS data covering factory gate prices indicated that inflation was yet to peak.

“We speak to thousands of businesses who tell us this is unsustainable”, he said.

“Our research shows that confidence is falling fast as many SMEs find it almost impossible to absorb or pass on rising costs.

“While the Bank of England seeks to control inflation through further interest rate rises, this is a blunt instrument that fails to address the core drivers of inflation for most firms: soaring energy costs, global supply chain disruption, and rising staff costs due to labour shortages.

“Ahead of tomorrow’s autumn statement, businesses will need to see a clear plan from the chancellor to boost business investment and growth, as well as targeted measures that ease the specific causes of inflation.

“The UK economy otherwise faces a lethal combination of recession and runaway inflation.”

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Liam Payne’s cause of death confirmed during UK inquest opening

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Liam Payne's cause of death confirmed during UK inquest opening

One Direction star Liam Payne died of multiple traumatic injuries, a UK inquest into his death has heard.

The 31-year-old singer, who died in October after falling from the third-floor balcony of a hotel in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was confirmed to have died of “polytrauma”, the inquest opening heard.

The hearing, which Buckinghamshire Coroner’s Court said was held on 17 December, was told it may take “some time” to establish how Payne died.

The inquest into Payne’s death in the UK has been adjourned until a pre-inquest review on 6 November, the coroner’s court said.

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Mourners gather for Payne’s funeral

Five people have been charged over Payne’s death at the Casa Sur Hotel on 16 October.

The hotel’s manager, a receptionist and a “representative” of Payne have been charged with negligent homicide (similar to manslaughter in UK law), Argentina’s National Criminal and Correctional Prosecutor’s Office previously said in a statement.

They are hotel manager Gilda Martin, receptionist Esteban Grassi and Payne’s “representative” Roger Nores.

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Two others, hotel employee Ezequiel Pereyra and waiter Braian Paiz, have been charged with supplying cocaine.

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Family and friends attended Payne’s funeral on 20 November, including his girlfriend Kate Cassidy and former partner Cheryl, with whom he had a son, Bear.

His One Direction bandmates, Harry Styles, Louis Tomlinson, Niall Horan and Zayn Malik also attended the private ceremony.

Senior Coroner Crispin Butler said during the inquest hearing: “Whilst there are ongoing investigations in Argentina into the circumstances of Liam’s death, over which I have no legal jurisdiction, it is anticipated that procuring the relevant information to address particularly how Liam came by his death may take some time through the formal channel of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.”

It comes after the star’s final hours were recently detailed by a judge and the Argentinian Public Prosecutor’s Office, who said in a statement Payne had been “demanding” drugs and alcohol during his stay at the hotel.

On 16 October, Payne was in the hotel lobby and “unable to stand” due to the “consumption of various substances”, the court document said.

The receptionist and two others “dragged” the singer to his room.

The document also reiterated the hypothesis that Payne had “tried to leave the room through the balcony and thus fell”.

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Plan to sanction people smuggling gangs is a bold and novel departure – but can the government make it bite?

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Plan to sanction people smuggling gangs is a bold and novel departure - but can the government make it bite?

So can you stop people smugglers by lumbering them with sanctions? That is the government’s latest idea, and it is bold and innovative.

It will certainly get attention, even if that doesn’t mean it will work. But it is another effort by this government to differentiate itself from the leaders who came before.

In a nutshell, the idea is to cut the financing to what the Foreign Office refers to as “organised immigration networks” and is intended to deter “smugglers from profiting off the trafficking of innocent people”.

So far, so convincing. The rhetoric is good. The reality may be more difficult.

For one thing, and we await actual details of what’s going to be done, this raises an enormous question of how this can be accomplished.

A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover.
Pic: PA
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A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover. Pic: PA

Some of the people smugglers bringing people across the Channel are based in Britain, but most aren’t. And as a general rule, they’re quite hard to track down.

I know that, because I’ve met some of them.

In Kurdistan, I drank tea with a cheerful man, Karwan, who had been responsible for smuggling a thousand people into Europe.

He had absolutely no fear of being caught, and no sense that he was even breaking the law.

The smuggling gang did not want to reveal their faces. From Parsons October 2023 shorthand
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The smuggling gang, who we met in October 2023, did not want to reveal their faces


We meet that afternoon. The smuggler, *Karwan, turns up with three other men, all members of his group - he doesn't like the word "gang" - and accepts the offer of a cup of hot tea. From Parsons VT for shorthand October 2023

Instead, Karwan considered that he was doing a duty to Kurds, allowing them to escape from the hardship of their nation to a more prosperous life in other countries, including Britain. Or, at least, that’s what he said.

How exactly Britain could impose sanctions on him is hard to imagine.

Nor is it hard to think of fear now creeping into the minds of the various smugglers I’ve met during years of reporting from the beaches of northern France.

These people are well aware that they’re breaking the law. You can hardly spend your time dodging French police and claim to be innocent.

Guns are becoming more commonplace in migrant camps. The spectre of sanctions won’t stop them.

Man suspected of supplying small boats for Channel migrant crossings arrested
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Life jackets allegedly belonging to a gang of people smugglers which were seized by police in November

So the question is whether the British government can track down the people at the very top of these organisations and find a way of levying financial sanctions that bite.

Presumably, if these people were in Britain, they’d be arrested, with the prospect of their assets being frozen.

So imposing sanctions will probably involve working alongside European countries, coordinating action and sharing information. A process that has become more complicated since Brexit.

Sanctions have previously worked well when targeted towards high-profile people and organisations with a clear track record.

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The oligarchs who have propped up Vladimir Putin’s regime, for instance, or companies trying to procure armaments for hostile states. All have been targeted by a coalition of nations.

But this idea is novel – unilateral for a start, even if, one assumes, the French, Germans, Belgians and others have been warned in advance.

It’s also not quite clear how it will work – organised crime is famously flexible and if you successfully sanction one person, then someone else is likely to take over.

As for levying sanctions on the smuggling leaders in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Albania and beyond – well, good luck.

An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel.
Pic: Reuters
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An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel. Pic: Reuters

What it does is to draw that distinction between the recent past, when the Rwanda plan was the main ambition, and Keir Starmer’s reliance on focusing on criminality and working together with partners.

And one other note. For years, the government has talked about people crossing the Channel as illegal migrants, even though there is a dispute between UK and international law about whether these people are actually breaking the law.

Now the Foreign Office is using the term “irregular migration”. Is this a change of tone, or just a stylistic whim? Just as with the sanctions, we will wait and see.

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Senior Tory MP Sir David Davis calls for Lucy Letby retrial

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Senior Tory MP Sir David Davis calls for Lucy Letby retrial

A senior Conservative has called for a retrial for Lucy Letby, the nurse jailed for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven others.

Former minister Sir David Davis has said he believes a retrial will “clear” her, as her conviction was “built on a poor understanding of probabilities” and lacked “hard evidence”.

He told MPs on Wednesday “there is case in justice” for a retrial, but admitted there was a problem.

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David Davis

Much of the expert analysis of the case notes he was referring to, was available at the time but not presented to the jury, he said.

That meant the Court of Appeal can dismiss it, “basically saying the defence should have presented it at the initial trial”.

In effect, he said, the court can say: “‘If your defence team weren’t good enough to present this evidence, hard luck you stay banged up for life’.”

Such an outcome “may be judicially convenient, but it’s not justice,” he said.

He said earlier: “There was no hard evidence against Letby, nobody saw her do anything untoward. The doctor’s gut feeling was based on a coincidence – she was on shift for a number of deaths, and this is important, although far from all of them, far from all of them.

“It was built on a poor understanding of probabilities, which could translate later into an influential but spectacularly flawed piece of evidence.”

Sir David said Letby’s case “horrified the nation” and that it “seemed clear a nurse had turned into a serial killer”.

“Now I initially accepted the tabloid characterisation of Letby as an evil monster, but then I was approached by many experts, leading statisticians, neonatal specialists, forensic scientists, legal experts and those who had served at Chester Hospital who were afraid to come forward,” he added.

These experts convinced Sir David that “false analyses and diagnoses” had been used to “persuade a lay jury” to find Letby guilty.

Responding to Sir David, Justice Minister Alex Davies-Jones said it is “an important principle of the rule of law that the Government does not interfere with judicial decisions”.

She added: “It is not appropriate for me or the government to comment on judicial processes nor the reliability of convictions or evidence.”

Ms Davies-Jones later told the Commons that Letby could apply to the Criminal Cases Review Commission if she believed she had been wrongly convicted.

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Letby, from Hereford, is serving 15 whole-life orders after she was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering seven infants and attempting to murder seven others, with two attempts on one of her victims, between June 2015 and June 2016.

Letby, who was in her mid-20s and working at the Countess of Chester Hospital at the time of the murders, is now the UK’s most prolific child killer of modern times.

The 33-year-old killed her victims by injecting the infants with insulin or air or force-feeding them with milk.

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