There has been a higher than expected leap in the rate of inflation, to a 41-year high of 11.1% last month, led by the latest rise in energy bills.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed the increase, from 10.1% in September, as the cost of light and heating for homes rose further despite help from the government’s energy price guarantee that limits wholesale charges for gas and power.
Food was cited as the other major element adding inflationary pressure during October, rising at the fastest annual pace since 1977.
The ONS estimated that the 11.1% reading for the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation was the highest since October 1981.
It added that prices rose between September and October 2022 by as much as they did in the entire year to July 2021.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rate of inflation to rise to 10.7% – itself still almost double the pace of wage growth.
Surging energy prices have been the main driver of the cost of living crisis – mostly a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that sent the cost of many commodities such as wheat, and the cost of producing them, through the roof.
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Wholesale energy costs currently remain below their conflict era peaks, raising hopes that the worst inflation is behind us.
However, there remains a lack of clarity on the support for energy bills beyond April, when the price guarantee will be reviewed. Further information could come in the chancellor’s autumn statement to MPs due on Thursday.
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Jeremy Hunt is tipped to protect the most vulnerable from the worst by raising benefits and pensions in line with inflation but has warned that we all face higher taxes to help balance the books.
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‘Taxes will rise for everyone’
The Bank of England had expected that inflation would have surged above 13% last month without the government energy bill intervention because average annual bills under the Ofgem-set price cap would have skyrocketed to around £3,450.
Policymakers were tipped, by financial markets, to impose a further 0.5 percentage points increase to Bank rate when its rate-setting committee meets again next month.
That would take the rate to 3.5%.
But the higher than expected inflation figure could mean a more aggressive rate rise is considered – piling even more misery on borrowers after November’s 0.75 percentage point hike.
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UK on the brink of recession?
The Bank has signalled that curbing inflation is its priority despite revealing last month that it expected the country was already in recession.
Official figures last week showed the economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to September.
The Bank has raised the prospect of seven further quarters of negative growth.
Rachelle Earwaker, senior economist for the living standards-focused Joseph Rowntree Foundation said of the gloom: “The cost of living has millions fearing for the future, contributed to by soaring cost rises for food, transport and energy.
“Every day sees still more stories of people selling their possessions, or borrowing money at punishing interest rates, just to afford these essentials.”
Head of research for the British Chambers of Commerce business group, David Bharier, said separate ONS data covering factory gate prices indicated that inflation was yet to peak.
“We speak to thousands of businesses who tell us this is unsustainable”, he said.
“Our research shows that confidence is falling fast as many SMEs find it almost impossible to absorb or pass on rising costs.
“While the Bank of England seeks to control inflation through further interest rate rises, this is a blunt instrument that fails to address the core drivers of inflation for most firms: soaring energy costs, global supply chain disruption, and rising staff costs due to labour shortages.
“Ahead of tomorrow’s autumn statement, businesses will need to see a clear plan from the chancellor to boost business investment and growth, as well as targeted measures that ease the specific causes of inflation.
“The UK economy otherwise faces a lethal combination of recession and runaway inflation.”
Labour MP Tulip Siddiq has been sentenced to two years in jail for corruption in Bangladesh.
Ms Siddiq was accused of using her influence over her aunt, the country’s former prime minister, to illegally secure plots of land for family members in the diplomatic zone of the capital Dhaka.
She was being tried in absentia.
Her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted last year and has since been sentenced to death, although she fled to India before she could be arrested.
Ms Siddiq, her niece, has described herself as “collateral damage” in the new Bangladeshgovernment’s campaign against Ms Hasina, and previously said the trial was based on “fabricated accusations and driven by a clear political vendetta”.
In response to the sentence on Monday, Ms Siddiq said the “whole process has been flawed and farcical from the beginning to the end”.
“The outcome of this kangaroo court is as predictable as it is unjustified,” she added. “I hope this so-called ‘verdict’ will be treated with the contempt it deserves.
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“My focus has always been my constituents in Hampstead and Highgate, and I refuse to be distracted by the dirty politics of Bangladesh.”
Image: The MP previously said the trial was ‘driven by a clear political vendetta’. File pic: Reuters
An investigation by Sir Keir Starmer’s ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, did not find “evidence of improprieties”.
However, he said it was “regrettable” that Ms Siddiq had not been more alert to the “potential reputational risks” of the ties to her aunt.
The UK does not have an extradition treaty in place with Bangladesh.
Former prime minister: Investigation ‘corrupt’
Awami League, a banned political party in Bangladesh, led by Ms Hasina, said that the verdicts were “entirely predictable… just as other recent ACC (Anti-Corruption Commission) cases have been,” and accused the commission of being led by “desperate, unelected men”.
Ms Hasina then added in a statement through the party: “No country is free from corruption. But corruption needs to be investigated in a way that is not itself corrupt.
“The ACC has failed that test today. It is controlled by an unelected government run by the Awami League’s political opponents.
“It has exclusively targeted members of the Awami League, or those seen to be sympathetic to our party, and done nothing to prosecute or even investigate the cronyism that has escalated in Bangladesh since Dr Mohammad Yunus and his so-called interim government took power.”
The former prime minister was handed a combined 21-year prison sentence in other corruption cases last week.
Image: Siddiq was accused of obtaining plots of land from Sheikh Hasina, former prime minister and her aunt. File pic: AP
Barrister Cherie Blair, who is married to ex-prime minister Tony Blair, Sir Robert Buckland, who served as justice secretary, and Dominic Grieve, an ex-attorney general, wrote that the criminal proceedings against Ms Siddiq were “artificial and a contrived and unfair way of pursuing a prosecution”.
The lawyers wrote that Ms Siddiq did not have a “proper opportunity of defending herself”.
“She is being tried in her absence without justification and… the proceedings fall far short of standards of fairness recognised internationally,” they said.
The letter was also signed by high-profile lawyers Philippe Sands and Geoffrey Robertson.
They called for the Bangladeshi authorities to put all the allegations to Ms Siddiq’s lawyers “so that she has a fair opportunity to address them”.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
The family of a father-of-four who died on holiday in Benidorm say new evidence has further convinced them that foul play was involved in his death.
Nathan Osman, 30, from Pontypridd in South Wales, was on a long weekend break with friends in Benidorm in September 2024.
Less than 24 hours after he arrived, his body was found by an off-duty police officer at the bottom of a remote 650ft (200m) cliff on the outskirts of the resort.
He died from head and abdominal injuries after falling from height, a post-mortem found.
Local police said it was “a tragic accident” that occurred after Nathan left his friends in Benidorm to walk back to his hotel room alone.
But his family believe the investigation into his death has not been adequate, and that the local authorities have never considered the possibility of a homicide.
Image: Nathan Osman. Pic: Family photo
Their suspicions of foul play were first provoked by the fact that the remote location where Nathan was found was in the opposite direction to the hotel, and some distance away on foot.
They began doing their own investigating, building a timeline of events drawn from sources including CCTV, witness statements and Nathan’s bank records, which they say showed attempts were made to use his bank cards the day after he died.
Now, the family have told Sarah-Jane Mee on The UK Tonight that new phone data they have uncovered suggests he couldn’t have reached the spot he was found on foot.
Image: Nathan’s brother Lee, mother Elizabeth and father Jonathan speak to Sarah-Jane Mee
After getting the phone back a couple of months ago, they say they tracked Nathan’s last movements through a health app.
“There’s a breakdown inside the app of every 10 minutes – the distance, pace, measurement of pace… every detail you can think of,” Nathan’s brother, Lee Evans, tells Mee.
“His pace wasn’t consistent with a fast walk or even a sprint.”
He said it was a faster journey, despite being uphill for 40 minutes, which has convinced the family that he was in a vehicle.
Image: Pic: Family handout
The family also went to visit the area where Nathan was found.
“We were a bit upset, but we were very pleased we went up there”, his mother, Elizabeth, says. “We could see… there’s no way he would have looked at that area and thought, ‘I’m going up here.’
“You can see straight off, there’s no clubs, there’s no hotels up there, there’s just the odd house dotted around. It was just out in the wild, there was nothing up there.”
The family says the phone data has helped them determine that he died around half an hour after he was seen on CCTV walking towards his hotel in the early hours of the morning.
“It was really ridiculous to think that my son would’ve walked up there [the remote location where he died] at 4am in the pitch dark.”
After the family were interviewed by Mee in May, South Wales Police opened its own investigation into Nathan’s death.
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Nathan’s family speaking to Mee in May
Lee says the Welsh force has been “appalled” by the lack of evidence turned over from the local police’s investigation.
His and Nathan’s father, Jonathan, says: “No procedures were followed. Nothing was cordoned off, it wasn’t a crime scene. There’s loads of things that could’ve been taken. Tyre tracks, foot tracks, nothing. No DNA taken.”
Lee says: “All that we’ve done over the last year, this could’ve been squashed within the first week, two weeks [by local investigators].
“We’ve had to find out and keep delving into every possible outcome and overturn every stone possible. We started off with… a needle in a haystack, we had no direction or any support on which way to go.”
Image: Nathan Osman. Pic: Family handout
What does Nathan’s family hope for now?
Nathan’s family say they have located 27 CCTV cameras which could have picked Nathan up in the area, after local investigators didn’t find any.
Elizabeth says that after alerting Spanish police to the locations, they were told that the CCTV “wouldn’t be working” or that footage would’ve already been erased.
“They just surmised everything,” she adds.
But the family, who found the last known CCTV footage of Nathan earlier this year, are convinced there is still hope.
Lee says: “There’s a number of CCTV footage in that area. We know there’s a way of finding a vehicle of some sort.”
But the family admit they may never find whoever could be responsible for Nathan’s death because so much time has been lost.
Elizabeth concludes: “Nathan walks with us every day. We all believe that,” adding that “all we want” is to find the ones responsible for his death and for him to “have the respect of a decent investigation”.
Sky News contacted Spanish police, which declined to comment, adding the case is under judicial review and it doesn’t want to hinder the course of the investigation.
South Wales Police told Sky News: “South Wales Police is carrying out enquiries on behalf of HM Coroner and a family liaison officer has been appointed to provide support.”
There could be a “danger to life” from heavy rain and flooding across much of Wales until Tuesday, with up to a month’s worth falling within 24 hours, forecasters have warned.
An amber warning that “heavy rain is likely to bring some disruption and probable flooding”, issued by the Met Office, has been extended in most of South Wales until 11.59pm on Monday.
The warning states “fast flowing or deep floodwater is possible, which could cause a danger to life” in the majority of South Wales.
Image: Pic: Met Office
Yellow rain warnings, meaning disruption is possible, have also been issued in parts of England and Wales from the early hours of Monday to 3am on Tuesday, and for most of Monday in southwest Scotland.
Forecasters predict 120mm (4.7in) of rain could fall in the highest ground of the area covered by the amber warning, while 20mm (0.8in) to 40mm (1.6in is expected widely and up to 80mm (3.1in) is likely in hilly parts.
The amount of rain projected to fall on Monday has caused landslides in Wales in the past, according to the British Geological Survey.
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Monday could be “a significant event for many”, and its impact will likely be greater because the ground is already saturated, the Met Office said.
Around 240mm (9.4in) has already fallen in Wales this month, almost 100mm more than its November average of 162mm (6.4in), according to one of its meteorologists.
England and Wales together have had 143% of the normal rainfall, he added.
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Senior operational Met Office meteorologist Marco Petagna said: “All areas have seen above normal rainfall, Scotland and Northern Ireland are less of an issue for tomorrow [Monday], away from southwest Scotland.”
He said parts of England and Wales “have seen already well-above normal rainfall and another several inches to come”.
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Natural Resources Wales (NRW) has listed 34 alerts in southern parts of Wales, warning people to be prepared for possible flooding.
Richard Preece, NRW’s duty tactical manager, said: “With some rivers already swollen and the ground saturated, we expect to see a number of flood alerts and warnings issued.”
The Environment Agency has posted three alerts that say flooding is expected and 42 warning that it is possible.