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Jeremy Hunt will unveil his autumn statement on Thursday, where he will attempt to find up to £60bn from a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts to rebalance the books.

Both the chancellor and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have warned that “difficult decisions” will need to be made in order to restore the UK’s economic credibility.

But speculation continues about what exact measures will form the autumn statement.

A report from the Resolution Foundation economic think tank has suggested Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt face a thankless task to rebalance the nation’s finances, with at least £40bn needing to be found by the government.

Treasury sources have told Sky News the financial “black hole” could be as large as £60bn – which may require up to £35bn of spending cuts and an extra £25bn raised through taxation.

So what measures could the chancellor take?

Minimum wage

The UK has a legal minimum wage which all firms should pay and all workers should receive which goes up every April.

With the cost of living soaring, there have been calls for the government to increase the minimum wage – officially known as the National Living Wage – by more than was planned in the autumn statement.

At present, the National Living Wage for over-23s is £9.50 an hour, for those aged 21-22 it is £9.18, for those aged 18-20 it is £6.83 and for those under-18 or apprentices it is £4.81.

The rates are the same across all parts of the UK.

Sky News understands that Mr Hunt will announce a rise in the National Living Wage for over-23s from £9.50 an hour to about £10.40 an hour.

The rise of nearly 10% would benefit around 2.5 million people, the original report in The Times said.

The newspaper also reports that eight million households will receive cost of living payments worth up to £1,100 a year.

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Who should bear brunt of budget?

Council tax

The Daily Telegraph has reported the government is also considering removing the requirement for local authorities to hold a referendum before increasing council tax by more than 2.99%, allowing them to raise significantly more money.

The new threshold could be 5%, according to the newspaper, which would see households in Band D paying up to £100 extra.

It could also mean that average council tax bills exceed £2,000 a year for the first time.

Under present rules, councils responsible for social care are allowed to increase their bills by 2.99%, including a 1% levy for social care.

If a local authority wants to raise bills any further, it must hold a local referendum.

But under new plans expected to be unveiled in the autumn statement, the maximum amount councils can increase bills without holding a referendum is expected to rise to 4.99% to help pay for social care.

Most councils are expected to take advantage of the freedom to charge residents more.

The Conservative Party manifesto in 2019 pledged to keep a veto on large council tax rises, insisting local people would “continue to have the final say”.

But a Treasury source told the Telegraph that councils need “more flexibility” to raise money.

The Telegraph has also suggested that the chancellor is considering plans to reduce the amount of funding received by councils for some of the services for refugees hosted by UK families.

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Cleverly: PM has ‘humility’

Freezing tax thresholds

In the 2021 spring budget, Mr Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, froze personal tax thresholds, which meant more low-income households had to pay the basic rate of income tax while those with earnings nearing £50,000 were made to pay the higher 40% rate.

The freezes were at the time forecast to last five years and raise billions for the Treasury by 2026, but it is thought this could be extended to 2028.

The Conservative Party’s winning 2019 manifesto promised to keep taxes low, so prolonging the freeze in the threshold at which workers start paying taxes is politically delicate ground for Mr Sunak’s government

However, it would send a signal the UK is committed to balancing its books over the long term.

Speaking on Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme last weekend ahead of the statement, Mr Hunt said: “We’re all going to be paying a bit more tax, I’m afraid.”

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‘We don’t need another round of cuts’

Lowering 45p threshold

One of the surprise moments in Ms Truss’s mini-budget was the decision to scrap the 45p tax rate for the highest earners.

The backlash was fierce amid a cost of living crisis that is hammering the least well off, and ditching the plan became the first U-turn of her short premiership.

Now there are rumours that rather than getting rid of the top rate, more people will end up paying it.

Reports have suggested Mr Hunt would lower the threshold for paying the 45p rate to £125,000 – down from the existing £150,000.

Analysis says this would bring an extra 246,000 people into the bracket at a cost to them of around £580 each a year, which in turn would raise the Treasury £1.3bn a year.

Mr Hunt told Sophy Ridge on Sunday that everyone will be asked to make “sacrifices” in his upcoming statement, but insisted those with the deepest pockets will bear the brunt of it – perhaps this policy idea is what he was referring to.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says everyone will be paying higher taxes, but there is ‘only so much we can ask’ from people on the lowest incomes.

Income tax

As chancellor, Mr Sunak also promised to cut the basic rate of income tax to 19% in April 2024 and then to gradually reduce it to 16% by 2029.

While Ms Truss’s government had said it would cut 1p of the basic rate of income tax from April 2023 – given the great need to cut the country’s debt, it is unclear whether or not this will be a pledge that is kept.

The Telegraph newspaper has suggested Mr Hunt is planning on reverting to Mr Sunak’s initial policy and planning a delay in the cut to the basic rate of income tax until 2024.

The cut could be completely off the table, however the Conservative Party’s commitment to keeping taxes low where possible suggests this is a less likely outcome.

The paper has also reported that ministers have discussed slashing the rate of income tax relief that is applied to higher rate taxpayers from 40p to 20p – which would mean millions of higher rate taxpayers could face paying more income tax.

Officials are also said to have discussed raising the top rate of income tax – which was 50p until it was abolished by former chancellor George Osborne in 2013.

But this is believed to be a less likely path for Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt to choose to go down.

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Patient confronts PM on pay for nurses

Public sector pay

It has been reported Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt are looking at pay rises of 2% across the board in the public sector for 2023/24 as the government attempts to fill the £40bn gap in the public finances.

An original report in The Times suggested the measure was spoken about in meetings this month between the prime minister and chancellor.

Such a pay rise would represent a real-term cut for those including nurses, teachers and police officers – as inflation is forecast to remain at up to 9% for much of next year.

The Resolution Foundation has warned the public sector would struggle to recruit and retain staff if this policy were to be adopted.

Earlier this month, a nursing union representing hundreds of thousands of nurses voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history over pay levels and patient safety concerns.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) had called for its members to receive a pay rise of 5% above the RPI inflation rate, which currently stands at above 12%.

The Public and Commercial Services union (PCS) which represents more than 100,0000 civil servants has also recently voted to strike in a dispute over pay, pensions and jobs.

Meanwhile, the cap on bankers’ bonuses – which has limited payouts to two times executives’ salaries since 2014 – is expected to be lifted.

If so, this would be one of the few measures to survive Mr Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget.

However, the PM on Wednesday urged bosses to keep down their pay in order not to exacerbate inflation.

“Of course I would say to all executives to embrace pay restraint at a time like this and make sure they are also looking after all their workers,” Mr Sunak told ITV News.

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‘I have to choose which bills I pay’

Not raising benefits in line with inflation

Benefits are usually uprated along with inflation every April, but there have been reports ministers could switch to raising them in line with average earnings instead while inflation remains so high.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said if benefits were to increase by inflation, this would likely be a 10% rise – equating to a real-value increase of almost £500 on average per year for an out-of-work benefits claimant.

However, around £7bn would be saved if the government were to increase benefits in line with earnings instead.

The Resolution Foundation has said this move would save £5.6bn if applied to the state pension and pension credit and an additional £2.4bn if applied to working-age benefits such as Universal Credit.

It is predicted about nine million UK households would face a loss in income if benefits were to be increased in line with earnings rather than inflation.

The Resolution Foundation has estimated a single disabled adult on Universal Credit would lose £380, while a working single parent with one child would lose £478, and a working couple with three children would lose £978.

Number 10 have repeatedly refused to say whether or not they will raise benefits in line with inflation.

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Pressure on Sunak to protect pensions

Pensions triple lock

The triple lock is a government policy designed to ensure people’s pensions are not impacted by gradual rises in the cost of living over time.

In practice, it means the state pension must rise in April by whichever of the following three things is highest: average earnings, inflation in the previous September or 2.5%.

It is a long-term manifesto commitment of the Conservative Party, but questions had been raised about its future amid soaring inflation, with this hitting 10.1% in the benchmark month of September.

However, it is understood the chancellor will keep the triple lock and honour the Tory manifesto commitment when he delivers his autumn statement.

Sticking to the policy will mean the state pension rising from £185.15 to £203.85 a week from April.

Last month, during an interview with Sky News political editor Beth Rigby, the newly-appointed chancellor Mr Hunt said he could not make a commitment to keeping it in place, saying everything was on the table when it came to possible cuts to cover the fiscal black hole in Whitehall.

Getting rid of the triple lock would save the Treasury billions, with the Resolution Foundation estimating that linking state pension increases to the lower rate of average earnings, around 5.5%, rather than inflation, would save £5.6bn next year.

But charities have warned the impact on poorer pensioners, who are facing soaring food and energy bills amid the cost of living crisis, would be huge.

En route to the G20 summit in Bali earlier this week, Mr Sunak gave his strongest hint yet that the government will protect the triple lock on pensions, saying the elderly “will always be at the forefront of my mind”.

Speaking to reporters, the PM said he had demonstrated in the past he understood the particular pressures faced by pensioners unable to increase their incomes by any other means in order to cope with the cost of living.

“My track record as chancellor shows I care very much about those pensioners, particularly when it comes to things like energy and heating because they are especially vulnerable to cold weather,” he said.

“I am someone who understands the particular challenge of pensioners.”

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‘Delay best way to make right decisions’

Keeping National Insurance increase

When he was chancellor, Mr Sunak brought in a 1.25 percentage point increase in National Insurance payments in what was referred to as a “social care levy” – taking the rate up to 13.25%

The 1.25 percentage point increase in NI was supposed to raise £12bn a year.

The money was due to go to the NHS to help clear the COVID backlog before the rest was set to be used to improve the social care sector.

Ms Truss announced the increase would be reversed on 6 November as more people began to struggle with bills during the cost of living crisis, putting the rate back down to 12%.

But, in search of more savings, Mr Hunt could be tempted to reintroduce the policy or to alter it so that the cut only applies to those on the basic rate of income tax.

Last month, Downing Street suggested that the PM will not bring back a National Insurance hike in the near future.

“The former prime minister and the chancellor agreed that extra funding for the NHS to deal with the backlogs and tackling social care reform was something that was a priority,” the PM’s press secretary said.

“Obviously we’ve been through a lot since then,” she added.

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Treasury minister addresses defence spending

Cutting defence spending

Mr Sunak has repeatedly declined to commit to a promise from his predecessor Liz Truss to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, compared to the NATO minimum of 2.5% as his government seeks to balance the books.

Speaking at the G20 summit in Bali, the PM downplayed concerns by some in the Tory party that ditching the target could be seen as a weakness by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We’ve got not just a current but a historic track record of being strong investors in defence and prioritising NATO. I think people can feel completely assured that we’re investing in our defences,” he said.

Mr Hunt has also refused to commit to lifting the amount of money spent on the armed forces to 3% of national income by 2030, saying the Ministry of Defence, like all other departments, would have to make additional savings.

“I’m going to ask all departments to find more efficiencies than they were planning to find,” Mr Hunt told Sky News.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has fought hard over the past three years to secure much-needed increases in defence spending at a time of growing security threats.

Asked whether any backtracking on defence spending goals would be a resigning issue, a defence source a few weeks ago said that Mr Wallace would hold the prime minister to the pledges made.

This includes a commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026 from around 2% at present and then to 3% of GDP by 2030 in what would equate to around an extra £157billion over eight years.

But even Mr Wallace appeared to row back from that position last week, telling European defence ministers he was “taking it budget by budget at the moment” amid the need to fill a fiscal black hole in government finances.

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How can government fill ‘black hole’ in nation’s finances?

Prolonging temporary cut to foreign aid

Another idea being mooted is prolonging the cut to international development aid.

While chancellor, Mr Sunak reduced foreign aid spending to 0.5% of GDP saying it would return to the baseline 0.7% when the economic situation had improved following the coronavirus pandemic.

According to The Times, Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt could now argue it will not be possible to increase aid spending until 2027 or 2028 given the economic turmoil caused by Ms Truss and former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s so-called mini-budget.

However, in his recent ministerial reshuffle, the prime minister appointed Conservative MP Andrew Mitchell as development minister, 10 years after his tenure as secretary of state for international development.

Mr Mitchell has been an ardent critic of reducing the foreign aid budget to 0.5% of GDP and his appointment could be a sign that Mr Sunak may be willing to compromise on this issue.

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Why do shell profits matter?

Windfall tax

Reports have suggested Mr Sunak is working on proposals to expand the windfall tax on energy companies.

The concept of a windfall tax is to target firms which are benefitting from something they are not responsible for – such as energy firms getting more money for their oil and gas compared to last year because of supply concerns following the Ukraine war and increased demand after COVID restrictions were lifted.

A number of briefings to newspapers have suggested the options could include increasing the levy, extending the deadline and expanding its remit to include renewable energy generators such as wind farms.

At present, the energy profits levy on oil and gas firms – also known as the windfall tax – is set at 25%. It is also due to expire in 2025.

With companies such as Shell recently reporting their second highest quarterly profit on record – £8bn – there is a suggestion the government should increase the levy above the 25% level.

The Financial Times has suggested the chancellor will use his autumn statement to lift the existing windfall tax on oil and gas companies from 25% to 35%, while extending it for another two years until 2028.

It is also thought the government is considering a “revenue cap” on electricity generators in line with a similar move by the European Union.

Another option being mooted is the creation of a 40% tax on the “excess returns” produced by the electricity sector above a certain price per megawatt hour.

Labour has said a windfall tax extension could raise an additional £50bn.

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How to save money on energy bills

Row back on promise to cut VAT on energy bills

Ms Truss’s government capped average annual household energy bills at £2,500 for two years in an attempt to relieve the burden for households across the UK.

Entering his new post, Mr Hunt scaled this back so that it will only continue until April 2023.

As part of his campaign to become Conservative Party leader the first time around in the summer, Mr Sunak promised he would scrap VAT on energy bills if he were to be victorious in the contest.

However, it is not known whether this pledge will be followed through with or not.

The Guardian newspaper has reported that the Treasury is considering raising the energy cap from its current level of £2,500 from next April – while The Sunday Times reported Treasury officials have discussed a scenario where average annual bills go up from £2,500 to between £2,850 and £3,100 – a rise of up to £600 on current bills.

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America will not put up with it for much longer!’: Donald Trump hits out at Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy once again

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America will not put up with it for much longer!': Donald Trump hits out at Ukraine's President Zelenskyy once again

Donald Trump has hit out at the Ukrainian president once again, just four days after an explosive on-camera spat between the pair.

The US president posted on Truth Social saying Volodymyr Zelenskyy made “the worst statement that could have been made” when he said the end of the war with Russia is “very, very far away”.

“America will not put up with it for much longer!” Mr Trump posted.

Live updates: Trump hits out at Zelenskyy again

“It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing,” the president added.

Mr Zelenskyy then posted on X saying Ukraine is “working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace”.

“Peace is needed as soon as possible,” he posted.

More on Donald Trump

Mr Trump also appeared to attack Mr Zelenskyy and Europe after yesterday’s Ukraine summit in London at which leaders, according to Mr Trump: “stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the US.”

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The Ukraine summit: How the day unfolded

“What are they thinking?” Mr Trump asked.

Hours later, however, during a press conference at the White House, Mr Trump praised Europe, saying its leaders have “acted very well”.

“We’re going to make deals with everybody… including Europe and European nations – and they’ve acted very well… they’re good people,” he said.

Read more:
‘I found Zelenskyy defiant after disastrous confrontation with Trump’
UK to defend Ukraine peace deal with ‘coalition of willing’, Starmer says

He told reporters the deal with Ukraine wasn’t dead despite the ongoing disagreements between himself and Mr Zelenskyy.

Donald Trump made an announcement about an investment from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, and also answered questions about Ukraine on 3 March 2025. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump speaking to reporters on Monday night. Pic: Reuters

“It’s a great deal for us,” he said.

“I just think he [President Zelenskyy] should be more appreciative.”

A deal to end the war was still “very, very far away”, Mr Zelenskyy said earlier, adding he expects to keep receiving US support despite the two leaders’ public spat.

“I think our relationship [with the US] will continue because it’s more than an occasional relationship,” the Ukrainian president added.

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Sky News meets Zelenskyy: The key moments

Despite the confrontation leading to Mr Zelenskyy being told to leave the White House, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage told Sky News’s chief political correspondent Jon Craig the argument may have been a “blessing”.

“Zelenskyy needed to wake up and smell the coffee,” said Mr Farage.

“And since that meeting, he’s done so, by the way, I’m told from people inside the White House that before they left the building, Zelenskyy wanted to go back in and sign the deal.”

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Pro-Ukrainian protesters gather in London

Mr Zelenskyy was in London over the weekend to meet with Sir Keir Starmer and King Charles and took part in a European summit on Ukraine convened by the UK.

Following the summit, Sir Keir announced a “coalition of the willing” to potentially provide boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

Read more: The ‘coalition of the willing’ – who’s in, who’s out?

US secretary of state Marco Rubio today thanked Foreign Secretary David Lammy for “the UK’s role in encouraging Europe to provide for its own defence and push for peace in Ukraine”, according to US state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.

“The secretary confirmed the United States is ready to negotiate to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict and will continue working with the UK towards peace in Ukraine,” she said.

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Long-range drone strikes weakening Russia’s combat ability, senior Ukrainian commander says

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Long-range drone strikes weakening Russia's combat ability, senior Ukrainian commander says

Russia is finding it “significantly” harder to conduct combat operations against Ukraine because of a rise in Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian weapons supplies, ammunition depots and fuel refineries, a senior commander has said.

Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol signalled these attacks would grow, revealing that his country plans to more than quadruple the production rate of deep strike drones – with a range of hundreds of miles – to more than 2,000 aircraft a month.

Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol
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Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol

Ukraine has been intensifying the tempo of its long-range drone strikes against targets inside Russia and Russian-occupied territory since late December – demonstrating what defence sources say is a world-leading capability that the Kremlin is struggling to counter.

The mission is an example of how Kyiv remains focused on combatting Moscow’s invasion even as world attention fixates on the fallout from a row between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as efforts by Europe to prepare a plan for peace.

Live updates: Ukraine war latest

The comments by Brigadier Shchygol, who coordinates long-range drone strikes for Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, offer a rare insight into the impact of the covert mission, which is also carried out by other branches of the Ukrainian military and security services.

“Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to conceal the extent of the damage,” the commander told Sky News in an interview at an undisclosed location in Kyiv.

“Headquarters have been hit, command structures weakened, and panic is spreading among their officers. Compared to a year ago, conducting full-scale combat operations has become significantly more challenging for [the Russians].”

Ukrainian drones being launched from a secret location
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Ukraine’s drone technology is considered to be world-leading


Sky News analysis of long-range drone strikes last month found that since December, there had been a ramping up of attacks against oil refineries in Russia that are used to fuel Russian tanks, jets and warships.

The analysis took in strikes officially confirmed by the Ukrainian armed forces. Brigadier Shchygol said “far more” drone attacks by Ukraine are not publicly confirmed.

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Ukraine ramps up attacks on oil depots

In a sign of the importance placed on long-range drones, he said Kyiv’s ability to manufacture this weapon has already jumped 100-fold since late 2022 to more than 500 per month.

While the officer would not say how many of these drones are then deployed on operations, he noted: “Nothing is just sitting in storage unused.”

He said recent operations had targeted several storage sites for Russia’s Iranian-designed Shahed one-way attack drones – used by the Russian armed forces against Ukrainian military and civilian targets.

More than 3,000 Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, according to the officer, who said: “As a result, their deployment of these drones has significantly decreased.”

Top secret drone mission

Sky News was given rare access to view a drone mission last week at a top-secret area.

As night fell, soldiers dressed in black – all members of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, an elite branch of the armed forces – prepared a line of about 10 drones.

Ukrainian drones being launched from a secret location
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Ukrainian drones being launched from a secret location

Each aircraft looked like a giant, grey metal mosquito.

The model is called “Lutti”, which is Ukrainian for “Fury”.

One by one, the drones burst into life, a propeller on the back whirring, pushing the aircraft forward at ever greater speed until it took off into the darkness.

We were told their target was an ammunition depot inside Russia.

Ukrainian drones being launched from a secret location
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Ukraine’s drone technology is considered to be world-leading


"Vector", the commander on the ground, spoke with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity
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“Vector” spoke with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity

“Vector”, the commander on the ground, said his drones have a success rate of 70 to 80%.

He said Ukraine’s deep strike operations are “very important”.

“We change the war with these drones,” Vector said, speaking with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity.

“We can show [Russia] that the war can come in their houses, in their towns, cities.”

Russia’s sheer size makes it vulnerable

Using drones to strike targets hundreds of miles inside Russia is a complex challenge.

As night falls, members of an elite branch of Ukraine's armed forces prepare a line of drones
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As night falls, members of an elite branch of Ukraine’s armed forces prepare a line of drones

But the sheer size of their enemy’s country works in Ukraine’s favour. The Russian military has weapons sites, ammunition storage areas, oil refineries and military headquarters dotted across its territory and lacks the air defences to be able to protect them all.

“We are reaching those targets. The slowing pace of their offensives – and in some places, even Ukrainian counter-offensives reclaiming territory – proves that our strikes are effective and growing more so,” Brigadier Shchygol said.

Read more:
Which countries could send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine?
In the room with Volodymyr Zelenskyy

A huge planning and reconnaissance effort underpins Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes.

It identifies targets and coordinates attacks between the different teams.

Varying volumes of drones are required for each mission – with some of the most complex strikes needing 100 unmanned aircraft.

From farm aircraft to fighter drone

The brigadier was speaking in a large room inside a disused building in Kyiv where five examples of different Ukrainian long-range drones were on display.

Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol
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Brigadier Shchygol spoke to Sky News from a room where long-range drones were on display

They tell the story of the evolution of vital battlefield technology that began life on a farm.

The earliest form of the long-range drone looks like an ordinary light aircraft, with rectangular wings and two propellers. It is a lot smaller than a manned plane but much larger than a regular drone – probably about the length of a car, with a similar wingspan.

This model, fitted with a camera and a large fuel tank to fly for long periods, had been used for surveillance for agricultural purposes.

It was adapted after Russia’s full-scale invasion to conduct reconnaissance and even bombing missions.

The idea was then modified further to develop similar-sized drones that look more like fighter jets, with pointed noses and triangular wings. These were designed to hold explosives in the main body of the plane.

Some of the drones are remotely piloted, others work via autopilot.

Russia’s war has forced Ukraine to use technology and innovation to fight back against its far more powerful foe.

It has accelerated the use of autonomous machines in an irreversible transformation of the warzone that everyone is watching and learning from.

Brigadier Shchygol said: “Right now, Ukraine’s battlefield experience is essentially a manual for the world.”

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Who’s in, who’s out? The ‘coalition of the willing’ that could secure peace in Ukraine

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Who's in, who's out? The 'coalition of the willing' that could secure peace in Ukraine

A “coalition of the willing” could provide boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. 

The phrase was a central theme of Sir Keir Starmer’s speech after European leaders gathered in London for crucial talks about Ukraine’s future.

Led by the UK and France, the initiative could see troops from a number of European and NATO countries deployed to Ukraine as peacekeepers in order to deter Vladimir Putin from rearming and attacking again in the future.

Follow latest: Russia not ready to negotiate, Zelenskyy says

Sir Keir said Europe “must do the heavy lifting” on defence and indicated several countries had expressed interest in being part of the coalition.

So who’s in, who’s out – and what’s behind these latest buzzwords?

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and France's President Emmanuel Macron hold a meeting during a Leaders' Summit on the situation in Ukraine at Lancaster House, London. Picture date: Sunday March 2, 2025.
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The UK, France and Ukraine are leading on developing a peace deal. Pic: PA

What is a coalition of the willing?

The prime minister has said the UK, France and Ukraine will work together on a peace deal that could be presented to the US.

The countries committed to working together on this deal would form a “coalition of the willing”.

Countries in the coalition could end up sending soldiers to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

Military analyst Michael Clarke said: “It has to be a coalition of the willing because you have at least two NATO members – Slovakia and Hungary – who are vetoing anything that Putin would not like… it’s the same with the EU.”

This approach would allow NATO members to act in a group but not under the NATO umbrella, avoiding vetoes from member states who don’t approve or don’t wish to be involved.

Sir Keir’s choice of the term “coalition of the willing” is also interesting. It’s perhaps intended to remind an American audience of a previous use of the same phrase: when the UK, Poland and other countries joined the US invasion of Iraq.

Russia has so far rejected the idea of any NATO or European peacekeeping force in Ukraine.

Map of military personnel by country, based on NATO estimates.
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Map of military personnel by country, based on NATO estimates.

Who’s in?

Sir Keir is being “quite coy about who the willing are”, Prof Clarke said.

The initiative is being led by the UK and France, so it seems a safe bet that both countries would be involved in the coalition.

Both have powerful militaries and the two nations are also the only countries in Europe with nuclear weapons.

“The important thing is that Britain and France are going to lead it because they are the two most important military powers in Europe,” Prof Clarke told Sky News.

It is notable that France’s President Emmanuel Macron originally raised the possibility of French troops in Ukraine last year, when he refused to rule it out.

A F-16 aircraft releases flares during the "Noble Sword-14" NATO international tactical exercise at the land forces training centre in Oleszno, near Drawsko Pomorskie, northwest Poland September 9, 2014. About 1,700 soldiers from Croatia, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Germany, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, the U.S., Turkey, Hungary, Britain and Italy are participating in the three-week exercise. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel (POLAND  - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY)
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An F-16 aircraft releases flares during a NATO exercise over Poland. Pic: Reuters

The Baltic states – Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia – are also likely to be involved, along with Finland, Prof Clarke says. All four countries are in NATO and share borders with Russia.

Italy could be involved too, Prof Clarke said, though Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has clashed with Mr Macron over the idea last week.

Not in Europe but a NATO member, Canada seems another potential contributor to the coalition of the willing.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, when asked about a potential deployment of troops as part of a peacekeeping force, said yesterday: “Canada has looked at the ways it can best help and as I’ve said a few days ago, everything’s on the table.”

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The Ukraine summit: How the day unfolded

Who’s out?

Prof Clarke said Poland, Spain and Germany are not expected to send troops as peacekeepers, for different reasons.

Poland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe and aims to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence this year, well above the NATO target.

But it also has a long border with Ukraine and Belarus and is concerned about its own security.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last month said: “We do not plan to send Polish soldiers to the territory of Ukraine.”

“We will… give logistical and political support to the countries that will possibly want to provide such guarantees in the future, such physical guarantees.”

starmer X meloni
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Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has been critical of plans to send troops to Ukraine

Spain’s foreign minister Jose Manuel Albares said last month that it was “too early at the moment to talk about deploying troops in Ukraine”, in remarks quoted by AFP.

He added: “There is no peace at the moment, and the effort has to be to achieve it as soon as possible.”

Spain’s government has faced a number of crises at home and spends around 1.28% of GDP on defence, well below the NATO 2% target.

As the biggest economy in Europe, Germany is a crucial part of any united response to the Ukraine war.

But a new government has not yet been formed after last month’s elections.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, at a rally in Munich. Pic: Reuters
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Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Pic: Reuters

Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has previously ruled out sending German troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers.

While his government has provided substantial support to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, he has been seen by some as hesitant – for example resisting calls to send the vaunted Taurus missiles to Kyiv.

Friedrich Merz, who is expected to replace him as chancellor once the new government is in place, has taken a harder line, including on pledging Taurus missiles, so it remains to be seen if his attitude on deploying troops will also deviate from his predecessor.

‘Coalition of the willing’ is a curious term to revive


Deborah Hayes

Deborah Haynes

Security and Defence Editor

@haynesdeborah

The use of the term “coalition of the willing” to describe the nations that agree to support an international force to help protect any ceasefire deal in Ukraine is interesting and notable.

It could perhaps be an attempt by Sir Keir Starmer to appeal to an American audience as this was the phrase the United States used for its “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq more than two decades ago.

That intervention ended in disaster, triggering a bloody insurgency and locking the US and its allies into a costly war, despite the successful toppling of Saddam Hussein.

But reviving the words “coalition of the willing” will – if nothing else – remind Washington that London was its biggest and strongest backer when it turned to allies to back its 2003 invasion.

What about America?

The elephant in the room is the biggest contributor to NATO: the US.

For example, of the 5,015 fighter and fighter ground-attack aircraft in NATO, 2,951 of them are from the US, and a further 1,108 are US-made, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies thinktank.

And America’s military is not just the largest in the world, but its ability to support troops in the field in terms of logistics is very hard to replace.

The coalition of the willing initiative seems designed to show President Donald Trump that Europe is serious about shouldering the defence burden and taking on more responsibility for the defence of Ukraine.

It should be pointed out that while the US is the single biggest donor to Kyiv, Europe as a whole has pledged more, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy thinktank.

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The hope seems to be that the coalition of the willing initiative would persuade the US as the world’s most powerful military to pledge support as a backstop, to underwrite the peace deal.

It’s unclear so far what Washington’s response will be, particularly after the fiery recent meeting between Mr Trump, vice president JD Vance and Mr Zelenskyy.

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