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Jeremy Hunt will promise to weather an economic “storm” by raising taxes, cutting public spending and scaling back energy support to fill a £54bn black hole in the nation’s finances.

The chancellor will insist to MPs on Thursday that his autumn statement puts the UK on a “balanced path to stability” as he tackles the “enemy” of inflation, which has soared to a 41-year high.

But the measures could put him on a collision course with Tory MPs on the right of his party who are already voicing anger about the prospect of some of the plans.

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An 11th hour petition from two dozen Tory MPs, led by Jonathan Gullis, has been sent to the chancellor asking him not to hike fuel duty in the statement.

The package will be in the form of £30bn of spending cuts and £24bn in tax rises over the next five years – a stark contrast to Kwasi Kwarteng’s unfunded tax-slashing spending splurge two months ago.

Among the measures, annual energy bills for a typical household will stay capped at £2,500, but this will rise to £3,000 in April 2023, when support will become more targeted with additional payments for low-income households and pensioners, Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby understands.

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On tax rises, those with the broadest shoulders will bear most of the burden, but there will be pain all around.

The chancellor is expected to lower the threshold for paying the highest rate of tax to £125,000 – down from the existing £150,000.

This is a marked difference to Liz Truss’s plans to scrap the 45p rate altogether, giving the highest earners an average tax cut of £10,000.

Analysis says lowering the threshold will bring an extra 246,000 people into the highest bracket at a cost to them of around £580 each a year, which in turn would raise the Treasury £1.3bn a year.

Mr Hunt is also expected to announce a freeze on personal income tax and national insurance tax thresholds lasting until 2028.

Sometimes referred to as a “stealth tax”, freezing tax thresholds drags more earners into paying higher rates of tax.

Mr Hunt has already hinted he will make it easier for local authorities to increase council tax, with reports suggesting the threshold for raising bills without a referendum could increase from 2.99% to 5%.

There is also expected to be a big increase in the windfall tax on energy companies, and a new tax on electricity generators.

Labour has previously said a windfall tax extension could raise an additional £50bn, and criticised what it calls the “loophole” that allows gas and oil firms to offset their tax liability if they invest back into the UK.

On spending cuts, departments are expected to be told to live within an envelope of the March Spending Review, when inflation at was 3%.

With inflation now at 11.1%, that amounts to a real-terms cut across the board, meaning tough choices will be necessary.

However, there will be some exceptions, with the NHS expected to get more money.

There is also likely to be some protection for the schools budget, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates understands.

“There will inevitably be some good news after the weeks of doom-laden warnings,” he said.

Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt have spent weeks warning that tough choices lay ahead.

However, the prime minister told Sky News on Tuesday that “fairness and compassion” will be at the heart of his decisions.

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It is understood the chancellor will keep the triple lock for pensioners in his autumn statement – honouring a manifesto commitment.

He is also expected to uprate benefits in line with inflation, rather than earnings (a controversial move that would have saved £5bn).

The government has not confirmed what measures will be in the statement, but there has been a constant stream of measures reportedly being considered.

This “pitch rolling” helps markets get an idea of what is coming down the road and avoids spooking traders.

When Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng made several surprise announcements in their mini-budget in September, it contributed to the financial chaos which saw the pound crash and the Bank of England forced to intervene to prevent pension funds from collapsing.

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Analysis released on Monday by the independent Resolution Foundation think tank found the mistakes they made cost the UK £30bn, doubling the sum the Treasury says will have to be raised.

Mr Hunt will say that his “difficult decisions” are necessary to keep mortgage rates low and tackle the rocketing energy and food prices intensifying the cost of living crisis.

“Families across Britain make sacrifices every day to live within their means, and so too must governments because the United Kingdom will always pay its way,” he is expected to say.

But Tories on the right of the Conservative Party are already voicing anger about the prospect of raising taxes.

Among the Tory critics, former cabinet minister Esther McVey has warned she will not support tax rises without the scrapping of the “unnecessary vanity project” of HS2.

Former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg told ITV’s Peston he would vote for the budget so as to not bring the government down, but warned he opposes tax increases, which he believes “risks making a recession worse”.

Labour has also warned that Britain is “falling behind on the global stage”.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The country is being held back by 12 years of Tory economic failure and wasted opportunities and working people are paying the price.

“What Britain needs in the autumn statement are fairer choices for working people, and a proper plan for growth.”

And Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the Unite union, warned Mr Hunt “workers are ready to take a stand”.

“He can choose to inject investment into the NHS and deliver a fair pay deal – or he can leave it as it is today, in danger of fatal collapse,” she said.

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Huge fire breaks out at electrical substation in west London

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Huge fire breaks out at electrical substation in west London

A huge fire has broken out at an electrical substation in west London.

Around 100 firefighters were tackling the blaze on Aberdeen Place in Maida Vale, where an electrical transformer was alight.

The roof of a neighbouring residential building was also alight, the London Fire Brigade said. Around 80 people have been evacuated from their homes.

Pictures from the surrounding areas show thick black smoke bellowing across the city’s skyline.

The fire bridge received more than 170 calls about the blaze from around 5.30am on Tuesday. Fifteen fire engines attended the scene.

“This is a very visible fire, which is producing lots of smoke,” said station commander Paul Morgan.

“Residents are advised to keep their windows and doors shut and avoid the area where possible.”

Fire crews from Paddington, Euston and other stations were fighting the fire.

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It is not known what has caused the blaze.

It comes a month after Heathrow was shut down following a fire at a nearby electrical substation.

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Moment Heathrow substation ignites

The Metropolitan Police said it was not treating that fire as a criminal matter after more than 1,000 flights were cancelled and hundreds of thousands of passengers affected.

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Sex offenders to be denied refugee status under plans to improve women’s safety

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Sex offenders to be denied refugee status under plans to improve women's safety

Migrants convicted of sex offences in the UK or overseas will be unable to claim asylum under government plans to change the law to improve border security.

The Home Office announcement means foreign nationals who are added to the sex offenders register will forfeit their rights to protection under the Refugee Convention.

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As part of the 1951 UN treaty, countries are allowed to refuse asylum to terrorists, war criminals and individuals convicted of a “particularly serious crime” – which is currently defined in UK law as an offence carrying a sentence of 12 months or more.

The government now plans to extend that definition to include all individuals added to the Sex Offenders’ Register, regardless of the length of sentence, in an amendment to the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, which is currently going through parliament. It’s understood they also hope to include those convicted of equivalent crimes overseas.

Those affected will still be able to appeal their removal from the UK in the courts under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA
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More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA

It is unclear how many asylum seekers will be affected, as the government has been unable to provide any projections or past data on the number of asylum seekers added to the Sex Offenders’ Register.

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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Sex offenders who pose a risk to the community should not be allowed to benefit from refugee protections in the UK.

“We are strengthening the law to ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously.”

Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls Minister Jess Philips said: “We are determined to achieve our mission of halving violence against women and girls in a decade.

“That’s exactly why we are taking action to ensure there are robust safeguards across the system, including by clamping down on foreign criminals who commit heinous crimes like sex offences.”

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The Home Office would like voters to see this as a substantial change. But that’s hard to demonstrate without providing any indication of the scale of the problem it seeks to solve.

Clearly, the government does not want to fan the flames of resentment towards asylum seekers by implying large numbers have been committing sex crimes.

But amid rising voter frustration about the government’s grip on the issue, and under pressure from Reform – this measure is about signalling it is prepared to take tough action.

Conservatives: ‘Too little, too late’

The Conservatives claim Labour are engaged in “pre-election posturing”.

Chris Philp MP, the shadow home secretary, said: “This is too little, too late from a Labour government that has scrapped our deterrent and overseen the worst year ever for small boat crossings – with a record 10,000 people crossing this year already.

“Foreign criminals pose a danger to British citizens and must be removed, but so often this is frustrated by spurious legal claims based on human rights claims, not asylum claims.”

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Has Labour tackled migration?

The Home Office has also announced plans to introduce a 24-week target for appeal hearings (known as “first-tier tribunals”) to be held for rejected asylum seekers living in taxpayer-supported accommodation, or for foreign national offenders.

The current average wait is 50 weeks. The idea is to cut the asylum backlog and save taxpayers money – Labour have committed to end the use of asylum hotels by the end of this parliament.

It’s unclear how exactly this will be achieved, although a number of additional court days have already been announced.

The government also plans to crack down on fake immigration lawyers who advise migrants on how to lodge fraudulent asylum claims, with the Immigration Advice Authority given new powers to issue fines of up to £15,000.

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Schoolgirl who attempted to murder teachers and pupil sentenced to 15 years in detention

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Schoolgirl who attempted to murder teachers and pupil sentenced to 15 years in detention

A 14-year-old girl who attempted to murder two teachers and a pupil at a school in Wales has been sentenced to 15 years in detention.

The girl, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was previously found guilty of attempting to murder teachers Fiona Elias and Liz Hopkin and a pupil at Ysgol Dyffryn Aman in Ammanford.

Emergency services were called to the school on 24 April last year, in what the trial heard was a “serious episode of violence” during the mid-morning break after the girl took her father’s fishing “multi-tool” to school.

She had admitted to three counts of wounding with intent and possession of a bladed article on a school premises, but a jury found her guilty of attempted murder in February after a week-long trial.

Following her arrest, the teenager told officers she was “pretty sure” the incident would be on the news, and added “that’s one way to be a celebrity”.

Both Mrs Elias and Mrs Hopkin “received significant and serious injuries”, Swansea Crown Court heard.

Mrs Hopkin was airlifted to the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff after she sustained “four stab wounds”, while Mrs Elias and the pupil also attended hospital for treatment.

Ammanford in Carmarthenshire
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Ammanford in Carmarthenshire

‘Changed my life forever’

Reading her victim personal statement from the witness box on Monday, Fiona Elias said the incident had shown her that life was “fragile” and had been “a steep learning curve”.

“Walking out on duty that day would change my life forever,” she said – a moment which “replays itself over and over no matter how much time passes”.

“It’s not easy, and I know I’ll continue to face challenges, but every day I’m taking step towards healing,” Mrs Elias said.

Addressing the defendant, Mrs Elias said “your motive was clear, you intended to murder me” but that she was stopped “thanks to Liz’s selfless actions”.

She said she was not “ruling out the possibility of a meeting with [the pupil] in the future,” but that she first needed to know she would “engage with the interventions that will be put in place”.

Outlining her plans to campaign for safer working conditions at schools, Mrs Elias said: “I never expected to give my blood, but I will always give my heart to Ysgol Dyffryn Aman and to the world of education.”

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The teenager, who can’t be named, is due to be sentenced in April.

‘Right place at the right time’

Liz Hopkin said it had been “the worst experience of [her] life” but that she was “glad” she was “in the right place at the right time” to protect Mrs Elias.

“I’m still here, I’m still alive, though at the time I was sure that I was going to die,” she told the court.

“Physically, my wounds have healed but the scars remain.”

Mrs Hopkin added that the thought of returning to a career in teaching now filled her with “anxiety and dread”.

“You were prepared to kill someone you did not know,” she said, addressing the defendant, who sat in the court for proceedings, until she moved to the dock for sentence.

“The decision to end my life was never yours to make.”

But Mrs Hopkin said she worried about the defendant’s future, adding: “I don’t want you to be punished forever but I do want you to take every opportunity to make your life better.”

Concluding her victim personal statement, Mrs Hopkin said: “It has changed me in ways I never wanted and that is something I will have to live with for the rest of my life.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

‘Very complex young girl’

Prosecuting, William Hughes KC said aggravating factors in the case included use of a knife, the fact two of the victims were “carrying out a public service” and that the offending took place in public.

In mitigation, Caroline Rees KC said the defendant was “a very complex young girl”.

She said she had shown remorse, had a “difficult background” and also the fact there were two trials.

Handing down his sentence, Judge Paul Thomas said the defendant would serve half of the 15-year sentence before she can be considered for release.

Addressing the defendant, he said: “What you did in school almost a year ago the day has caused a large number of people a great deal of harm and upset. It has hugely affected many lives, including, of course, your own.”

“The simple fact is you tried to kill three people, two teachers and another pupil,” he added.

“I think that it is very important here that what you did you did in full of so many other pupils…In my view you wanted as many of your fellow pupils as possible to see what you intended to do.”

The Judge added that “for one reason or other, [the defendant wasn’t] really listening” to the victim impact statements of Mrs Elias and Mrs Hopkin.

He said he did not think the teenager was “genuinely sorry” for what she did, adding: “You showed no emption or even interest in how they felt that day or ever since.”

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