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If you’re feeling a bit disorientated by the chancellor’s autumn statement, you’re not alone.

In just eight weeks, the government has shifted from wanting to roll out the biggest tax cuts in 50 years to taking the country’s tax burden to its highest level since the Second World War.

Liz Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng wanted to slash taxes – announcing £45bn of unfunded tax cuts in September – only for their replacements Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt to swing the pendulum the other way, with an autumn statement targeting £55bn of fiscal consolidation, plus tax rises of £25bn and spending cuts at £30bn.

We’ve lurched from the zeal of Ms Truss’s low tax, small state, trickle-down economics to the pragmatism of Mr Sunak, who claims he’s instinctively a fiscal Conservative but on Thursday oversaw an autumn statement that borrowed much from the opposition front bench.

There were windfall taxes on energy companies (raising £5.6bn by 2027/8), a freeze on National Insurance thresholds for extra money for employers (£5.8bn), a cut to the 45p rate of tax threshold to £125,000 (£855m), changes to capital gains and dividends tax (£1.4bn), and a reversal of Kwarteng’s stamp duty cuts (£1.6bn).

Tax rises paid for by business and the wealthy had all the hallmarks of a Labour budget.

On spending, too, the Tories are prioritising extra money for the NHS (£6.6bn) and for schools (£4.6bn) over the next two years, paid for in part from the overseas aid budget.

And while public services will feel the squeeze in the coming year as inflation gallops ahead of allocated spending, most of the £30bn of spending cuts will be kicked into the next parliament, when the Tories might not even be in power, with day-to-day departmental spending £21.5bn less in 2027/8 than under previous plans.

“They’ve shot Labour’s fox,” is how one senior economist put it to me, as Mr Hunt borrowed some of Sir Keir Starmer’s tax plans, put more money into public services and saved the spending cut pain until after the general election.

Mr Hunt also threw the gauntlet down to Labour as to how they’d pay for improved public services.

But the political skill of Thursday’s statement can’t detract from the hard reality of what people are about to face as the UK tips into recession and energy bills and inflation remain high.

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Pledge to increase NHS budget

UK households are set to suffer a 7.1% fall in living standards over the next two years.

It’s the largest decline in six decades and will take household disposable incomes back to levels not seen since 2013. A decade of growth wiped out.

That, coupled with below inflationary pay rises for public sector workers and tight budgets as inflation outpaces funding settlements for much of our public services, is going to hurt voters and no doubt test their relationship with a Conservative Party already more than 20 points behind in the polls.

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Millions to pay more in tax

A YouGov poll in The Times says 45 per cent of voters blame higher borrowing levels on the Conservative government, despite Mr Hunt’s best attempts to blame it on global factors.

And then there is the Tory party itself.

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Energy price cap to rise again in 2023

Mr Sunak was pilloried back in the summer by his then-leadership rival Ms Truss as the Conservative chancellor who lifted the country’s tax burden to a 70-year high. On Thursday, he went further, lifting it to a near 80-year high.

The signs of discontent rippled through the backbenches on Thursday. Richard Drax made the point, shared by many of his colleagues, that raising taxes risks stifling growth.

Bill Cash complained about the cost of HS2 and Therese Villiers asked the chancellor to cut taxes quickly if current forecasts about economic recovery and inflation proved to be overly pessimistic.

This an autumn statement from a chancellor and prime minister insisting it’s time to “face the storm”.

On Thursday, both will be relieved that the announcement didn’t unsettle the markets, but the economic outlook is nothing but grim for the public and the government. The coming months could be very bumpy indeed.

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‘The future is in our hands’ scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

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'The future is in our hands' scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold, and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said.

Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.

The record heat has not only has real-world implications, as it contributed to deadly flooding in Spain and vicious drought in places like Zambia in southern Africa.

It is also highly symbolic.

Countries agreed in the landmark Paris Agreement to limit warming ideally to 1.5C, because after that the impacts would be much more dangerous.

The news arrives as California battles “hell on earth” wildfires, suspected to have been exacerbated by climate change.

And it comes as experts warn support for the Paris goals is “more fragile than ever” – with Donald Trump and the Argentinian president poised to row back on climate action.

More on Climate Change

What caused 2024 record heat – and is it here to stay?

Friends of the Earth called today’s findings from both the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change service and the Met Office “deeply disturbing”.

The “primary driver” of heat in the last two years was climate change from human activity, but the temporary El Nino weather phenomenon also contributed, they said.

The breach in 2024 does not mean the world has forever passed 1.5C of warming – as that would only be declared after several years of doing so, and warming may slightly ease this year as El Nino has faded.

But the world is “teetering on the edge” of doing so, Copernicus said.

Prof Piers Forster, chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, called it a “foretaste of life at 1.5C”.

Dr Gabriel Pollen, Zambia’s national coordinator for disasters, said “no area of life and the economy is untouched” by the country’s worst drought in more than 100 years.

Six million people face starvation, critical hydropower has plummeted, blackouts are frequent, industry is “decimated”, and growth has halved, he said.

Paris goal ‘not obsolete’

Scientists were at pains to point out it is not too late to curb worse climate change, urging leaders to maintain and step up climate action.

Professor Forster said temporarily breaching 1.5C “does not mean the goal is obsolete”, but that we should “double down” on slashing greenhouse gas emissions and on adapting to a hotter world.

The Met Office said “every fraction of a degree” still makes a difference to the severity of extreme weather.

Firefighters battle the Palisades fire as it burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles.
Pic: Reuters
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The California fires were whipped up by strong, dry winds and likely worsened by climate change. Pic: Reuters

Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “The future is in our hands: swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate”.

Climate action is ‘economic opportunity’

Copernicus found that global temperatures in 2024 averaged 15.10°C, the hottest in records going back to 1850, making it 1.60°C above the pre-industrial level during 1850-1900.

The Met Office’s data found 2024 was 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.

The figures are global averages, which smooth out extremes from around the world into one number. That is why it still might have felt cold in some parts of the world last year.

Greenpeace campaigner Philip Evans said as “the world’s most powerful climate denier” Donald Trump returns to the White House, others must “take up the mantle of global climate leadership”.

The UK’s climate minister Kerry McCarthy said the UK has been working with other countries to cut global emissions, as well as greening the economy at home.

“Not only is this crucial for our planet, it is the economic opportunity of the 21st century… tackling the climate crisis while creating new jobs, delivering energy security and attracting new investment into the UK.”

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

Photographs have captured the moments after a baby girl was born on a packed migrant dinghy heading for the Canary Islands.

The small boat was carrying 60 people and had embarked from Tan-Tan – a Moroccan province 135 nautical miles (250km) away.

One image shows the baby lying on her mother’s lap as other passengers help the pair.

The boat’s passengers – a total of 60 people, including 14 women and four children – were rescued by a Spanish coastguard ship.

Coastguard captain Domingo Trujillo said: “The baby was crying, which indicated to us that it was alive and there were no problems, and we asked the woman’s permission to undress her and clean her.

“The umbilical cord had already been cut by one of her fellow passengers. The only thing we did was to check the child, give her to her mother and wrap them up for the trip.”

Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters

Spanish coast guards wearing white suits work on a rescue operation as they tow a rubber boat carrying migrants, including a newborn baby, off the island off the Canary Island of Lanzarote, in Spain, in this handout picture obtained on January 8, 2025. SALVAMENTO MARITIMO/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT
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Coastguards rescued all 60 people aboard the boat. Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters


The mother and baby were taken for medical checks and treated with antibiotics, medical authorities said.

Dr Maria Sabalich, an emergency coordinator of the Molina Orosa University Hospital in Lanzarote, said: “They are still in the hospital, but they are doing well.”

When they are discharged from hospital, the pair will be moved to a humanitarian centre for migrants, a government official said.

They will then most likely be relocated to a reception centre for mothers and children on another of the Canary Islands, they added.

Thousands of migrants board boats attempting to make the perilous journey from the African coast to the Spanish Canaries each year.

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In 2024, a total of 9,757 people died on the route, according to Spanish migration charity Walking Borders.

Mr Trujillo said: “Almost every night we leave at dawn and arrive back late.

“This case is very positive, because it was with a newborn, but in all the services we do, even if we are tired, we know we are helping people in distress.”

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It’s not ‘traditional’ wildfire season – so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

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It's not 'traditional' wildfire season - so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?

What caused the California wildfires?

There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.

The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.

But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.

However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.

The main culprit so far is the Santa Ana winds.

Follow live: Malibu residents told to get ready to flee

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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’

What are Santa Ana winds?

So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.

Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.

It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.

These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.

They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.

The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.

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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared

The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect

The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.

“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”

What role has climate change played?

California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.

Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.

But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.

But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.

Read more:
Terrifying firestorm tears through home of film stars
State of emergency as wildfires sweep through LA celebrity suburb

A U.S flag flies as fire engulfs a structure while the Palisades Fire burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California.
Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.

“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.

“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”

The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.

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