NHS spending: Inflation and demand growth to wipe out almost all new funding

Published

3 years ago

November 18, 2022

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Nearly all of the new NHS funding announced by the chancellor will be eaten up by the costs of inflation and growing demand, with just £800m left over for the improvement of services.

In his autumn statement, Jeremy Hunt promised an additional £3.3bn in funding for the NHS for each of the next two years.

Analysis by the Nuffield Trust, shared exclusively with Sky News, suggests that rising prices and growing demand will use up three quarters of next year’s increase, and the entirety of the increase scheduled for 2024/25.

Half of the total funding boost is likely to be eaten up by inflation, as the UK endures a second year of rising prices. A Sky News analysis found that energy price increases added £121m to the running cost of NHS buildings in the year to March.

Inflation is expected to cost the health service £3.2bn over the next two years, while increased demand from a growing and ageing population is expected to cost the NHS a further £852m next year and £1.7bn the year after.

That leaves just £795m left over for improving services next year, a quarter of the £3.3bn headline funding boost.

The increase scheduled for 2024/25, meanwhile, is set to be entirely taken up in dealing with the pressures of inflation and growing demand.

John Appleby, chief economist at the Nuffield Trust, said that the final amount “could be higher or lower”, depending on whether trusts overspend and whether certain key costs, like nurses’ pay, increase faster than expected.

Nurses are set to go on strike next month over the government’s decision not to raise their pay in line with inflation.

Rising energy costs are already putting NHS England’s finances under strain. Sky News analysis of data from NHS Digital found that an 18% rise in fuel prices added £121m to the running costs of the health service’s buildings in the year to March.

Many NHS trusts expect costs to rise further. A recent report by the British Medical Journal found that some trusts were budgeting for an additional £2m per month in fuel costs next year.

Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust confirmed to Sky News that it expects its annual energy bills to more than triple in 2023, adding £24m to its running costs.

It’s not just energy prices that are rising. The increased costs of hiring cleaners, for instance, has added £76m to the health service’s expenses over the past year, while higher costs for providing inpatient meals has added a further £38m.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of NHS Providers, told Sky News that the new money promised by the chancellor would allow the NHS to “just about keep the show on the road”.

“It will enable us to continue to manage a very difficult situation, and hopefully make further progress in areas like waiting lists.

“What it won’t do is address the fundamental issues and get the NHS to where the public would like it to be.”

More than 7 million people in England are currently waiting for treatment. That’s nearly one in eight of the population, and the number has been rising for 28 consecutive months.

The number of people waiting more than four hours at A&E is also at record levels, while ambulance response times are far above target.

David Maguire, senior analyst at the King’s Fund, told Sky News that local NHS trusts were likely to face “really, really tough decisions” about where to focus their resources in the coming years.

“You always have to prioritise emergency and urgent care. That might mean less focus on goals like improving productivity or investing in preventative care. We’re already seeing a pull back at the NHS England-level on some of the funding for transformation efforts, for example around digital technology and data usage.”

This wouldn’t be the first time the NHS has cut back on long-term investments in order to free up resources for frontline services.

Between 2014 and 2019, £4.3bn earmarked for capital investment was instead used to fund day-to-day spending.

That decision has left the NHS with a backlog of maintenance work worth £10.2bn – equivalent to 92% of the entire annual cost of running the NHS estates.

Nearly a fifth of that backlog (£1.8bn worth) is classified as “high risk”, meaning it could result in “catastrophic failure, major disruption to clinical services or deficiencies in safety liable to cause serious injury or prosecution”.

“We’ve got some hospitals which are currently being held up by struts,” said Mr Taylor.

“That’s not what you want people to be doing – lying in a hospital bed looking at a temporary strut holding up the roof. These hospitals aren’t currently dangerous, but in time they will become dangerous and this needs to be addressed.”

Dealing with the maintenance backlog is increasingly hampering the ability of trusts to invest in improving services. Last year, the NHS spent £1.4bn dealing with the maintenance backlog, 16% of its entire capital budget.

And that capital budget is already low by international standards. In the decade before the pandemic, OECD data shows, the UK’s long-term investments in the healthcare sector amounted to just 0.25% of GDP – compared to 0.38% in France and 0.69% in the US.

Reducing the waiting list

In order to reduce the number of patients waiting for treatment, NHS England set a target in February of returning NHS activity to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022-23, and increasing activity a further 29% within two years.

Thousands of additional staff have been hired in recent years, but the impact of COVID-19 and the demand of the target means that the NHS is still short of staff.

Trusts are increasingly hiring expensive agency workers to fill the gaps, adding further pressure to the budget.

Spending on agency workers reached £3bn in the year to March, up from £2.4bn two years earlier.

Hours before the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, the National Audit Office said the NHS was unlikely to meet its activity targets, pointing to the impact of inflation, staff shortages and productivity issues.

Despite a 13% increase in the number of clinical staff since 2018, the number of people being removed from the NHS waiting list each month has risen by just 2%.

NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard said the chancellor’s decision to increase funding for the health service showed that “the government has been serious about its commitment to prioritise the NHS”.

“While I am under no illusions that NHS staff face very testing times ahead, particularly over winter, this settlement should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its key priorities,” she said.

UK

Man, 92, found guilty of rape and murder nearly 60 years ago

Published

2 hours ago

June 30, 2025

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Man, 92, found guilty of rape and murder nearly 60 years ago

A 92-year-old man has been found guilty of raping and murdering a woman born 133 years ago – in what’s thought to be the UK’s longest cold case to reach trial.

Ryland Headley was convicted at Bristol Crown Court of killing 75-year-old mother of two, Louisa Dunne, at her home back in June 1967.

Latest DNA technology – as well as matching palm prints taken at the scene more than 57 years ago – led a jury to find Headley guilty on both charges.

Detective Inspector Dave Marchant from Avon and Somerset Police said forces across the country are investigating whether Headley could be linked to other unsolved crimes.

“This investigation was a blend of new and old forensic techniques – DNA being the latest and greatest…but we were able to utilise that original investigative material,” he said.

On the morning of 28 June 1967, neighbours noticed that Louisa Dunne, born in 1892, wasn’t standing on her doorstep as usual.

They found her lying dead inside her home in the Easton area of Bristol – bruised, blood coming from one ear, vomit in her mouth and her underwear around her ankles.

The police investigation at the time found traces of semen on intimate swabs and on the skirt she was wearing, but it was around 20 years before DNA testing.

A palm print was also found on one of the rear windows inside the house.

“The original investigation was, by all accounts, massive,” DI Marchant told Sky News.

“Over 19,000 palm print eliminations were taken from men and boys in the Bristol area and beyond. Over 8,000 house-to-house records were completed and several thousand statements were taken,” he added.

But Headley – in his 30s at the time – lived just outside the ring of houses where palm prints were taken.

A post-mortem examination found she had “extensive abrasions” on her face and that the most likely explanation was that a hand had been pressed against her mouth.

Around 20 crates of evidence were stored in Avon and Somerset Police HQ for nearly six decades alongside other cold cases.

The case was reviewed in 2024, with new DNA testing on the sperm found on the skirt Ms Dunne had been wearing.

Investigating officers were told the results showed a DNA match on the national database that was “a billion times” more likely to belong to Headley than anyone else.

“I had to read that email several times to fully digest the content of it and believe what I was reading. Then it was, okay, game on, let’s get this investigation going,” said DI Marchant.

Headley was arrested at his home in Ipswich in November 2024 – he did not give evidence during the trial.

The jury heard that forensic experts had matched Headley’s palm print, taken on arrest, to that of the one found on Ms Dunne’s window at the time.

The judge allowed the prosecution to raise the fact that Headley had already spent time in jail for committing two other rapes, around a decade after Ms Dunne’s murder.

Both those cases involved attacks against elderly women in similar circumstances.

Prosecutor Anna Vigars KC told the jury these offences demonstrate to all of us that Headley “has a tendency” to act in exactly the same way that we say that he did back in 1967.

“In other words, to break into people’s homes at night and, in some cases, to target an elderly woman living alone, to have sex with her despite her attempts to fend him off, and to threaten violence,” she said.

Speaking before the verdict, Louisa Dunne’s granddaughter recalled the moment police told her of progress in the cold case, nearly six decades on: “She said, ‘this is about your grandmother’, and I said, ‘have they caught him?’ It came out, I never thought I’d say anything like that. Have you caught him? and she said, ‘we have a suspect’.”

She described the impact of the attack on her grandmother and that a conviction would bring relief:

“I accepted it. I accepted that some murders just never get solved. And some people just have to live with that emptiness and that sadness.

“I think it’s appalling, absolutely appalling. The poor woman – it must have been absolutely terrifying. And the reality of a rape, I don’t like thinking about, I don’t think anybody does,” she added.

The Crown Prosecution Service told Sky News that it was not aware of a cold case with a longer period between the offence and trial.

DI Marchant told Sky News it demonstrates the value of reviewing such cases: “I think this investigation shows you should never give up.

“You should never look at an investigation and say, ‘oh, it’s too old, it happened X number of years ago’ and have an arbitrary cut off point. At the time we re-instigated it in 2024… there was a chance a suspect could still be alive and as it turned out – he was.”

UK

BBC issues new statement over stream of anti-IDF chant at Glastonbury

Published

4 hours ago

June 30, 2025

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BBC issues new statement over stream of anti-IDF chant at Glastonbury

The BBC has said it regrets not pulling the live stream of Bob Vylan’s “unacceptable” Glastonbury set – as Ofcom said the broadcaster has “questions to answer”.

The corporation has faced mounting criticism over airing the performance on Glastonbury‘s West Holts Stage, during which the rap-punk duo’s frontman Bobby Vylan led chants of: “Free, free Palestine” and: “Death, death to the IDF (Israel Defence Forces)”.

Sir Keir Starmer condemned the remarks as “appalling hate speech”, while festival organiser Emily Eavis said they “crossed a line” – and media watchdog Ofcom has now also released a statement raising concerns.

This morning, a spokesperson for the prime minister did not directly answer when asked if he still had confidence in BBC director-general Tim Davie.

Footage from Bob Vylan’s set on Saturday showed some of the crowd joining in, as the group performed in front of a screen that said Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to “genocide”.

Afterwards, the BBC said there had been a warning on screen about potential “strong and discriminatory language”, but described the comments as “deeply offensive”.

On Monday, a spokesperson released an updated statement, saying the comments were antisemitic and the performance should have been taken off air.

“The BBC respects freedom of expression but stands firmly against incitement to violence,” the statement said. “The antisemitic sentiments expressed by Bob Vylan were utterly unacceptable and have no place on our airwaves. We welcome Glastonbury’s condemnation of the performance.”

A judgement to issue a warning on screen while streaming online was in line with editorial guidelines, the spokesperson added, and the performance has not been made available to view on demand.

“The team were dealing with a live situation but with hindsight we should have pulled the stream during the performance. We regret this did not happen.

“In light of this weekend, we will look at our guidance around live events so we can be sure teams are clear on when it is acceptable to keep output on air.”

An Ofcom spokesperson said: “We are very concerned about the live stream of this performance, and the BBC clearly has questions to answer.

“We have been speaking to the BBC over the weekend and we are obtaining further information as a matter of urgency, including what procedures were in place to ensure compliance with its own editorial guidelines.”

In a statement shared on Instagram on Sunday, Bobby Vylan said: “Teaching our children to speak up for the change they want and need is the only way that we make this world a better place.

“As we grow older and our fire starts to possibly dim under the suffocation of adult life and all its responsibilities, it is incredibly important that we encourage and inspire future generations to pick up the torch that was passed to us.”

The latest developments follows severe condemnation from the prime minister, who said there was “no excuse for this kind of appalling hate speech”.

Sir Keir also referenced a previous statement that Belfast rap group Kneecap, who were on stage after Bob Vylan, should have been removed from the line-up after one member was charged with a terrorism offence.

“I said that Kneecap should not be given a platform and that goes for any other performers making threats or inciting violence,” he said.

Ms Eavis, whose father Michael co-founded the festival, said in a statement that Bob Vylan had “very much crossed a line”.

She added: “Their chants very much crossed a line and we are urgently reminding everyone involved in the production of the festival that there is no place at Glastonbury for antisemitism, hate speech or incitement to violence.”

The Israeli embassy posted on X in the hours after the set, saying it was “deeply disturbed by the inflammatory and hateful rhetoric”.

It said the slogan used “advocates for the dismantling of the State of Israel”.

In a separate post on X on Sunday, Israel’s foreign ministry published graphic footage following the attack by Hamas on the Nova festival in Israel on 7 October 2023, and the Campaign Against Antisemitism (CAA) said it would be formally complaining to the BBC over its “outrageous decision” to broadcast the performance.

Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on behalf of the government, Health Secretary Wes Streeting described the chant as “appalling”, especially at a music festival – “when there were Israelis at a similar music festival who were kidnapped, murdered, raped, and in some cases still held captive”.

He added that while “there’s no justification for inciting violence against Israelis… the way in which Israel’s conducting this war has made it extremely difficult for Israel’s allies around the world to stand by and justify”.

Lucy McMullin, who was in the crowd for Bob Vylan, told Sky News: “When there’s children and civilians being murdered and starved, then I think it’s important that people are speaking out on these issues.

“However, inciting more death and violence is not the way to do it.”

Police have said they are reviewing footage of both the Bob Vylan and Kneecap sets to assess whether any criminal offences were committed.

Speaking to Sky News earlier today, women and equalities minister Baroness Jacqui Smith said the comments “clearly” over-stepped the mark.

“I’m surprised that the BBC carried on broadcasting them live when it was obvious what was happening.”