Nearly all of the new NHS funding announced by the chancellor will be eaten up by the costs of inflation and growing demand, with just £800m left over for the improvement of services.
In his autumn statement, Jeremy Hunt promised an additional £3.3bn in funding for the NHS for each of the next two years.
Analysis by the Nuffield Trust, shared exclusively with Sky News, suggests that rising prices and growing demand will use up three quarters of next year’s increase, and the entirety of the increase scheduled for 2024/25.
Half of the total funding boost is likely to be eaten up by inflation, as the UK endures a second year of rising prices. A Sky News analysis found that energy price increases added £121m to the running cost of NHS buildings in the year to March.
Inflation is expected to cost the health service £3.2bn over the next two years, while increased demand from a growing and ageing population is expected to cost the NHS a further £852m next year and £1.7bn the year after.
That leaves just £795m left over for improving services next year, a quarter of the £3.3bn headline funding boost.
The increase scheduled for 2024/25, meanwhile, is set to be entirely taken up in dealing with the pressures of inflation and growing demand.
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John Appleby, chief economist at the Nuffield Trust, said that the final amount “could be higher or lower”, depending on whether trusts overspend and whether certain key costs, like nurses’ pay, increase faster than expected.
Nurses are set to go on strike next month over the government’s decision not to raise their pay in line with inflation.
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Rising energy costs are already putting NHS England’s finances under strain. Sky News analysis of data from NHS Digital found that an 18% rise in fuel prices added £121m to the running costs of the health service’s buildings in the year to March.
Many NHS trusts expect costs to rise further. A recent report by the British Medical Journal found that some trusts were budgeting for an additional £2m per month in fuel costs next year.
Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust confirmed to Sky News that it expects its annual energy bills to more than triple in 2023, adding £24m to its running costs.
It’s not just energy prices that are rising. The increased costs of hiring cleaners, for instance, has added £76m to the health service’s expenses over the past year, while higher costs for providing inpatient meals has added a further £38m.
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of NHS Providers, told Sky News that the new money promised by the chancellor would allow the NHS to “just about keep the show on the road”.
“It will enable us to continue to manage a very difficult situation, and hopefully make further progress in areas like waiting lists.
“What it won’t do is address the fundamental issues and get the NHS to where the public would like it to be.”
More than 7 million people in England are currently waiting for treatment. That’s nearly one in eight of the population, and the number has been rising for 28 consecutive months.
The number of people waiting more than four hours at A&E is also at record levels, while ambulance response times are far above target.
David Maguire, senior analyst at the King’s Fund, told Sky News that local NHS trusts were likely to face “really, really tough decisions” about where to focus their resources in the coming years.
“You always have to prioritise emergency and urgent care. That might mean less focus on goals like improving productivity or investing in preventative care. We’re already seeing a pull back at the NHS England-level on some of the funding for transformation efforts, for example around digital technology and data usage.”
This wouldn’t be the first time the NHS has cut back on long-term investments in order to free up resources for frontline services.
Between 2014 and 2019, £4.3bn earmarked for capital investment was instead used to fund day-to-day spending.
That decision has left the NHS with a backlog of maintenance work worth £10.2bn – equivalent to 92% of the entire annual cost of running the NHS estates.
Nearly a fifth of that backlog (£1.8bn worth) is classified as “high risk”, meaning it could result in “catastrophic failure, major disruption to clinical services or deficiencies in safety liable to cause serious injury or prosecution”.
“We’ve got some hospitals which are currently being held up by struts,” said Mr Taylor.
“That’s not what you want people to be doing – lying in a hospital bed looking at a temporary strut holding up the roof. These hospitals aren’t currently dangerous, but in time they will become dangerous and this needs to be addressed.”
Dealing with the maintenance backlog is increasingly hampering the ability of trusts to invest in improving services. Last year, the NHS spent £1.4bn dealing with the maintenance backlog, 16% of its entire capital budget.
And that capital budget is already low by international standards. In the decade before the pandemic, OECD data shows, the UK’s long-term investments in the healthcare sector amounted to just 0.25% of GDP – compared to 0.38% in France and 0.69% in the US.
Reducing the waiting list
In order to reduce the number of patients waiting for treatment, NHS England set a target in February of returning NHS activity to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022-23, and increasing activity a further 29% within two years.
Thousands of additional staff have been hired in recent years, but the impact of COVID-19 and the demand of the target means that the NHS is still short of staff.
Trusts are increasingly hiring expensive agency workers to fill the gaps, adding further pressure to the budget.
Spending on agency workers reached £3bn in the year to March, up from £2.4bn two years earlier.
Hours before the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, the National Audit Office said the NHS was unlikely to meet its activity targets, pointing to the impact of inflation, staff shortages and productivity issues.
Despite a 13% increase in the number of clinical staff since 2018, the number of people being removed from the NHS waiting list each month has risen by just 2%.
NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard said the chancellor’s decision to increase funding for the health service showed that “the government has been serious about its commitment to prioritise the NHS”.
“While I am under no illusions that NHS staff face very testing times ahead, particularly over winter, this settlement should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its key priorities,” she said.
The biggest night in British TV, this year’s BAFTA TV Awards saw the golden masks handed out to a wide spread of shows – with the BBC’s Mr Loverman the only show to take home two awards.
Hosted by Scottish actor and presenter Alan Cumming, the night kicked off with a Traitors skit, before handing out 29 awards, interspersed with a live performance or two.
While Baby Reindeer had gone into the night the most nominated, it took just one prize, as did the much talked about Mr Bates Vs The Post Office. Meanwhile Rivals and Slow Horses, which had also been hotly tipped, went home empty-handed.
Here are some of the top moments from the 2025 TV BAFTAs.
Image: Baby Reindeer star Jessica Gunning won her first BAFTA. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
‘Hello cheeky chops!’
Jessica Gunning took the first prize of the evening, greeting her award with joyful: “Hello cheeky chops!”
Gunning, a first-time nominee, said Baby Reindeer had “changed my life”, reminiscing about her childhood playing make believe and inventing imaginary friends, never knowing she’d eventually end up using her dramatic skills to win a BAFTA.
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The role of Martha has already won her an Emmy, a SAG award and a Golden Globe in the US.
Gunning also wished her co-star and creator of Baby Reindeer Richard Gadd a happy birthday (his 36th), calling him “nipple”, a nickname her character Martha gave to Donny (Gadd’s character) in the show.
Image: Cast and crew of Mr Bates Vs The Post Office take their award. Pic: BAFTA Pic: John Phillips/ Getty Images for BAFTA
‘Liars and bullies’
Mr Bates Vs The Post Office took the limited drama prize, with producer Patrick Spence telling the audience: “Our show didn’t change the law, the people of this nation did that,” before going on to say it showed the public “cannot abide liars and bullies.”
Flagging the journalists and the campaigners who covered the wrongful conviction of the sub postmasters convicted due to Horizon IT scandal, he called making the show, “the greatest privilege of our lives”.
Later, when accepting the special award earned by ITV for commissioning the show, the channel’s managing director Kevin Lygo said he’d “never seen anything quite like” the impact of Mr Bates Vs The Post Office.
Flagging the large number of people impacted by the scandal who were still waiting for compensation, Lygo didn’t mince his words, demanding: “Hurry up and pay these people what they’re due.”
Image: Danny Dyer is a proud – and sweary – BAFTA winner. Pic: PA
Watch your mouth
Several winners were so excited they couldn’t refrain from a little blue language.
Accepting his first BAFTA for best male comedy performance, Danny Dyer dropped the f-bomb numerous times.
In his speech, Dyer thanked his co-star and the show’s creator Ryan Sampson, calling him “one of the greatest things to have come out of Rotherham”.
He praised Sampson for “never doing the same thing twice”, adding with tongue in cheek, “It’s not something I can say”. Dyer concluded his speech with a nod to his family, and a final trademark “f***”.
Meanwhile, a very excited Sophie Willen stepped up to accept the prize for scripted comedy.
The Taskmaster alumni told the crowd: “I’m not allowed to swear and all I want to do is go beep, beep”, before calling her win “bloomin’ fabulous”.
Willen – whose part autobiographical comedy Alma’s Not Normal tackles the care system, drug addiction, mental illness, and terminal cancer – called her cast and crew “shit hot”, before catching herself, then repeating “shit, shit”.
Image: Ruth Jones with her BAFTA for Gavin & Stacey. Pic: Kate Green/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
‘I love you James’
Taking the prize for female performance in a comedy, Ruth Jones channelled her inner Nessa, saying: “I’m not going to lie, this is immense.”
Thanking the cast and crew, she became emotional as she added: “The person I would like to thank most is my dear, dear talented friend James Corden.” The cameras of course then panned to a chuffed looking Corden, sitting in the audience.
She went on to say that without him, “Vanessa Shanessa Nessa Jenkins would not exist”, paying tribute to their 17 years writing together, adding, “long may it continue” – and so perhaps giving hope for a new Jones/Corden collaboration to follow Gavin And Stacey’s final act?
Image: State Of Rage director Marcel Mettelsiefen. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
War amid the awards
In a sobering moment amid the glitz and the glamour, the director of best single documentary, Ukraine: Enemy In The Woods – filmed by Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline – paid tribute to two contributors to the film who had since been killed in conflict.
Jamie Roberts spoke about two young men he’d worked with on the film, before adding: “They are not here – they are now dead.”
The winner of the current affairs category, State Of Rage, also offered a heartfelt message as they accepted the award for the programme which follows a Palestinian and Israeli family in the West Bank.
German State Of Rage director Marcel Mettelsiefen said: “It would be wrong to stand here without acknowledging what’s happening in Gaza.”
Speaking as a parent, he said: “This violence needs to stop now,” then adding, “let’s break this silence together.”
Image: Kirsty Wark celebrates her fellowship. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
‘I’ve interviewed musicians – and a few monsters’
Former Newsnight presenter Kirsty Wark received a standing ovation as she collected her BAFTA fellowship – the body’s highest accolade.
Accepting her award, Wark said: “Thank you so much to BAFTA. It is a privilege and an honour to have my name added to such an incredible roll call. My work continues to give me so much, not just wonderful friends and colleagues.”
The veteran broadcaster continued: “Things have changed so much, so radically, since the ’70s, not least the shoulder pads, the office drinks trolley, shooting on reversal for a fast edit, and film crews, the size of football teams, but always the chance to learn and grow and I’ve been lucky to interview everyone from politicians to painters, architects, economists, musicians and a few monsters.”
Wark added that the “most joyous change in television” has been “the number of women in senior roles”.
Image: ‘Mr Cruises’ aka Rob Brydon accepts Would I Lie To You’s first BAFTA. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
Would I Lie To You wins its first BAFTA
Everyone loves a conspiracy theory, and this year it could be courtesy of BAFTA and a big boat.
Accepting the entertainment award for perennial favourite Would I Lie To You, host Rob Brydon said: “This is a surprise.”
Team captain Lee Mack then added: “We’ve been nominated for eight years but now ‘Mr Cruises’ has done it for us,” referring to Brydon’s adverts for P&O cruises – the sponsor of tonight’s event.
“The whiff of scandal is in the air,” quipped Brydon.
In Memoriam
The In Memoriam section of the night was accompanied by live music by concert violinist and social media sensation Esther Abrami.
Always a poignant moment in the evening, it included a wide variety of stars who passed away this year including Shannon Doherty, Tony Slattery, Paul Danan, Henry Kelly, Linda Nolan, Michael Moseley, The Vivienne and Timothy West.
Image: Sir David Suchet became Poirot – briefly – to hand out the best actress award. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
Poirot presents best actress
Awarding the best actress prize, Sir David Suchet channelled his most famous on-screen character, Hercule Poirot, greeting the audience with “Mesdames, Messieurs” to wild applause.
He went on, in the words of the bumbling Belgian detective: “I expect you’re wondering why I’ve gathered you here tonight?”
Image: Marisa Abela with her BAFTA for leading actress. Pic: Kate Green/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
In a surprise win, Industry star Marisa Abela took the prize and had to be helped up on to the stage due to the length and tightness of her sparkling black gown.
Clearly surprised by her win, and becoming tearful, as she paid tribute to her drama school teacher who she said was in the audience that night, she also paid tribute to her mother, also an actress, without whom she said she’d never be on the stage accepting her first BAFTA aged just 28.
Migrants will have to live in the UK for a decade before they can apply for citizenship under plans to reduce reliance on foreign workers.
The change from five to 10 years will come with exceptions for people who make a “high contribution” to the economy or society, who will able to be fast-tracked for permanent settlement rights.
It comes on top of new English language requirements across every visa route, which will extend to adult dependents for the first time.
The measures will be announced by Sir Keir Starmer on Monday ahead of the Immigration White Paper, which will set out further reforms to bring net migration down.
At a press conference later, the prime minister will say: “This is a clean break from the past and will ensure settlement in this country is a privilege that must be earned, not a right.
“And when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration and to learning our language.
“Lower net migration, higher skills and backing British workers – that is what this White Paper will deliver.”
Net migration – the difference between the number of people immigrating and emigrating to a country – soared when the UK left the EU in January 2020.
It reached 903,000 in the year to June 2023 before falling to 728,000 in mid-2024. But that is still well above its pre-Brexit high of 329,000 in the year up to June 2015.
The government is under pressure to tackle legal migration, as well as illegal immigration, amid Reform UK’s surge in the polls.
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9:47
Reform: Immigration ‘should be frozen’
However, experts have questioned whether some of the changes announced by Sir Keir today will have much of an impact, at least in the short term.
Currently, migrants have to live in the UK for five years to get indefinite leave to remain, or “settled status” if they are from the EU. They can then use this to apply for British citizenship, usually 12 months after settlement.
There were 162,000 grants of settlement in 2024, up 35% from 2023, and 270,000 grants of citizenship in 2024, up nearly a third on the previous year.
‘Contributions-based’ citizenship model
The new “contributions-based model” means people must spend a decade in the UK before applying to stay, unless they can show a “real and lasting contribution to the economy and society”.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA
The Home Office said this will include “high-skilled” and “high-contributing” individuals like nurses, doctors, engineers and AI leaders.
The details are still being fleshed out and will be put to consultation later this year rather than in the white paper, Sky News understands.
However, the thinking is that those who pay higher taxes or who work in a priority sector will be eligible to be fast-tracked. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also keen for discounts to apply to those who make an “outstanding contribution” to society, such as community leaders, it is understood.
English language requirements
The government also plans to raise English language requirements across every immigration route, so foreign workers speak a higher standard of English.
For the first time, this will also extend to all adult dependents by requiring them to demonstrate a basic understanding of English, which the government says will help people integrate and find employment.
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Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that extending the amount of time people need to be in the UK to get permanent settlement rights is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels, as there is “no evidence” this affects their decision about whether to migrate.
Any impact would be seen in five to ten years, “when people get to that point of the visa journey”, she said, adding that the main effect of this policy would be to “bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office” and “to make it harder for migrants to settle in”.
She said that language requirements “are more likely to have an impact on the number of visas granted”, as more than half of skilled worker visas over the past couple of years have gone to dependents.
“However, there’s no data on how many of them would have passed a language test so it is hard to say how big,” Dr Sumption added.
The home office has not put a figure on what sort of reduction these policies could achieve, with Ms Cooper to give more details in parliament on Monday afternoon.
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16:59
Minister reveals new immigration plans
On Sunday, she told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips that plans to close the care worker visa route and change the skilled visa threshold to require a graduate qualification would cut the number of overseas workers by about 50,000 this year.
However, she refused to put a target on the overall levels of net migration the government is aiming for, saying that approach “failed” under the Conservatives.
The Tories have admitted making mistakes in office, but are still calling for a binding immigration cap and want to repeal the Human Rights Act for immigration issues.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said Labour has “overseen the worst ever start to a year for illegal immigrants crossing the channel” adding: “The idea that Starmer is tough on immigration is a joke.”
Nottingham Forest’s owner was filmed confronting his club’s manager on the pitch following their 2-2 draw with Leicester City.
Evangelos Marinakis entered the pitch after the Premier League match and was seen castigating manager Nuno Espirito Santo in front of the team’s fans.
The draw saw Forest’s hopes of qualifying for next year’s Champions League dented.
Image: Nottingham Forest’s Taiwo Awoniyi receives medical attention after sustaining an injury. Pic: Reuters
Marinakis, however, was frustrated at his manager for not substituting 27-year-old forward Taiwo Awoniyi after he suffered an injury while colliding with a goalpost.
That decision meant injured Awoniyi played for the final ten minutes but wasn’t able to contribute to the game, according to the manager.
The confrontation drew widespread criticism of Marinakis, with former Manchester United star Gary Neville posting on X: “Scandalous from that Forest owner. Nuno should go and negotiate his exit tonight with him! The Forest fans, players and manager do not deserve that”
Football broadcaster Des Kelly called Marinakis a “big baby” for his “tantrum out on the pitch”. “What an embarrassment,” he wrote in a post on X.
After the match, Espirito Santo confirmed the confrontation was about Awoniyi’s injury.
“It was due to the situation,” he told Sky Sports. “We got information [Awoniyi] was okay to keep going,” he said in a statement.
“Unfortunately, we didn’t have another stoppage to change him and he was not able to continue to help the team. We’re all frustrated.”
Although Forest made history this season and will now play in Europe – likely either in the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Conference League – many fans hoped they would make it to the Champions League.
While still a possibility, the draw means Forest will have to rely on teams above them dropping points in the final two games of the season.
In a statement posted on social media, Marinakis admitted he was frustrated at the end of the match.
“Today is a day for celebration, because after 30 years, Nottingham Forest is now guaranteed to be competing on the European stage once again – a promise I made to our supporters when we achieved promotion!”
“Everybody – coaching staff, players, supporters and including myself – we were frustrated around the injury of Taiwo and the medical staff’s misjudgment on Taiwo’s ability to continue the game.
“This is natural, this is a demonstration of the passion we feel for our club.
“Let’s all be grateful, passionate and keep on dreaming!”