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Nearly all of the new NHS funding announced by the chancellor will be eaten up by the costs of inflation and growing demand, with just £800m left over for the improvement of services.

In his autumn statement, Jeremy Hunt promised an additional £3.3bn in funding for the NHS for each of the next two years.

Analysis by the Nuffield Trust, shared exclusively with Sky News, suggests that rising prices and growing demand will use up three quarters of next year’s increase, and the entirety of the increase scheduled for 2024/25.

Half of the total funding boost is likely to be eaten up by inflation, as the UK endures a second year of rising prices. A Sky News analysis found that energy price increases added £121m to the running cost of NHS buildings in the year to March.

Inflation is expected to cost the health service £3.2bn over the next two years, while increased demand from a growing and ageing population is expected to cost the NHS a further £852m next year and £1.7bn the year after.

That leaves just £795m left over for improving services next year, a quarter of the £3.3bn headline funding boost.

The increase scheduled for 2024/25, meanwhile, is set to be entirely taken up in dealing with the pressures of inflation and growing demand.

More on Autumn Statement 2022

John Appleby, chief economist at the Nuffield Trust, said that the final amount “could be higher or lower”, depending on whether trusts overspend and whether certain key costs, like nurses’ pay, increase faster than expected.

Nurses are set to go on strike next month over the government’s decision not to raise their pay in line with inflation.

Rising energy costs are already putting NHS England’s finances under strain. Sky News analysis of data from NHS Digital found that an 18% rise in fuel prices added £121m to the running costs of the health service’s buildings in the year to March.

Many NHS trusts expect costs to rise further. A recent report by the British Medical Journal found that some trusts were budgeting for an additional £2m per month in fuel costs next year.

Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust confirmed to Sky News that it expects its annual energy bills to more than triple in 2023, adding £24m to its running costs.

It’s not just energy prices that are rising. The increased costs of hiring cleaners, for instance, has added £76m to the health service’s expenses over the past year, while higher costs for providing inpatient meals has added a further £38m.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of NHS Providers, told Sky News that the new money promised by the chancellor would allow the NHS to “just about keep the show on the road”.

“It will enable us to continue to manage a very difficult situation, and hopefully make further progress in areas like waiting lists.

“What it won’t do is address the fundamental issues and get the NHS to where the public would like it to be.”

More than 7 million people in England are currently waiting for treatment. That’s nearly one in eight of the population, and the number has been rising for 28 consecutive months.

NHS tracker postcode search: See how your local trust is performing through the year

The number of people waiting more than four hours at A&E is also at record levels, while ambulance response times are far above target.

David Maguire, senior analyst at the King’s Fund, told Sky News that local NHS trusts were likely to face “really, really tough decisions” about where to focus their resources in the coming years.

“You always have to prioritise emergency and urgent care. That might mean less focus on goals like improving productivity or investing in preventative care. We’re already seeing a pull back at the NHS England-level on some of the funding for transformation efforts, for example around digital technology and data usage.”

This wouldn’t be the first time the NHS has cut back on long-term investments in order to free up resources for frontline services.

Between 2014 and 2019, £4.3bn earmarked for capital investment was instead used to fund day-to-day spending.

That decision has left the NHS with a backlog of maintenance work worth £10.2bn – equivalent to 92% of the entire annual cost of running the NHS estates.

Nearly a fifth of that backlog (£1.8bn worth) is classified as “high risk”, meaning it could result in “catastrophic failure, major disruption to clinical services or deficiencies in safety liable to cause serious injury or prosecution”.

“We’ve got some hospitals which are currently being held up by struts,” said Mr Taylor.

“That’s not what you want people to be doing – lying in a hospital bed looking at a temporary strut holding up the roof. These hospitals aren’t currently dangerous, but in time they will become dangerous and this needs to be addressed.”

Dealing with the maintenance backlog is increasingly hampering the ability of trusts to invest in improving services. Last year, the NHS spent £1.4bn dealing with the maintenance backlog, 16% of its entire capital budget.

And that capital budget is already low by international standards. In the decade before the pandemic, OECD data shows, the UK’s long-term investments in the healthcare sector amounted to just 0.25% of GDP – compared to 0.38% in France and 0.69% in the US.

Reducing the waiting list

In order to reduce the number of patients waiting for treatment, NHS England set a target in February of returning NHS activity to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022-23, and increasing activity a further 29% within two years.

Thousands of additional staff have been hired in recent years, but the impact of COVID-19 and the demand of the target means that the NHS is still short of staff.

Trusts are increasingly hiring expensive agency workers to fill the gaps, adding further pressure to the budget.

Spending on agency workers reached £3bn in the year to March, up from £2.4bn two years earlier.

Hours before the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, the National Audit Office said the NHS was unlikely to meet its activity targets, pointing to the impact of inflation, staff shortages and productivity issues.

Despite a 13% increase in the number of clinical staff since 2018, the number of people being removed from the NHS waiting list each month has risen by just 2%.

NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard said the chancellor’s decision to increase funding for the health service showed that “the government has been serious about its commitment to prioritise the NHS”.

“While I am under no illusions that NHS staff face very testing times ahead, particularly over winter, this settlement should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its key priorities,” she said.

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Nurse Sandie Peggie who complained about sharing changing room with transgender doctor wins part of employment tribunal

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Nurse Sandie Peggie who complained about sharing changing room with transgender doctor wins part of employment tribunal

A nurse who complained about sharing a changing room with a transgender doctor has won part of her employment tribunal against NHS Fife, although several claims were dismissed.

Sandie Peggie took action against the health board and transgender medic Dr Beth Upton after she was suspended from her job at Victoria Hospital in Kirkcaldy following a row with her colleague on Christmas Eve 2023.

Ms Peggie, who has worked for the NHS for 30 years, was placed on special leave after Dr Upton made an allegation of bullying and harassment, and cited concerns about patient care.

The nurse lodged a claim against NHS Fife and Dr Upton, citing the Equality Act 2010, including sexual harassment, harassment related to a protected belief, indirect discrimination, and victimisation.

The employment tribunal hearings took place in Dundee before Judge Sandy Kemp earlier this year.

In a written judgment on Monday, the harassment claim was upheld against NHS Fife, but allegations of discrimination, indirect discrimination and victimisation were dismissed.

The claims against Dr Upton did not succeed and were dismissed.

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Dr Beth Upton arriving at the tribunal in February. Pic: PA
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Dr Beth Upton arriving at the tribunal in February. Pic: PA

Ms Peggie stated: “I am beyond relieved and delighted that the tribunal has found that my employer Fife Health Board harassed me after I complained about having to share a female-only changing room with a male colleague.

“The last two years have been agonising for me and my family.

“I will have much more to say in the coming days once I’ve been able to properly consider the lengthy judgment and discuss it with my legal team.

“For now, I am looking forward to spending a quiet few days with my family.”

Ms Peggie paid tribute to her “incredible” legal team, which included lead counsel Naomi Cunningham, junior counsel Dr Charlotte Elves, and solicitor Margaret Gribbon.

She added: “There are many others I would like to thank and will do so in the coming days.”

Read more:
NHS Fife chief announces early retirement ahead of ruling

The tribunal found that NHS Fife had harassed Ms Peggie by failing to revoke the grant of permission to Dr Upton on an interim basis after the nurse complained, for the period until different work rotas took effect so that they would not work together and said that, as a result, Dr Upton was in the changing room when the claimant was present on two occasions.

It also found the board had harassed Ms Peggie by taking an unreasonable length of time to investigate the allegations against her; by making reference to patient care allegations against her on 28 March 2024; and giving an instruction to her not to discuss the case, until a further message a little over two weeks later which confirmed that applied only to the investigation.

A separate hearing on remedy – which could see Ms Peggie receive financial compensation – will take place at a later date.

NHS Fife said it had been a “complex and lengthy process”.

The health board added: “The employment tribunal unanimously dismissed all of the claimant’s allegations against Dr Upton and all of the allegations against the board apart from four specific aspects of the harassment complaint.

“We will now take time to work through the detail of the judgment alongside our legal team to understand fully what it means for the organisation.

“We want to recognise how difficult this tribunal has been for everyone directly and indirectly involved.

“Our focus now is to ensure that NHS Fife remains a supportive and inclusive environment for all employees and our patients and to deliver health and care to the population of Fife.”

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Ex-footballer Joey Barton sentenced for X posts sent to Jeremy Vine, Eni Aluko and Lucy Ward

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Ex-footballer Joey Barton sentenced for X posts sent to Jeremy Vine, Eni Aluko and Lucy Ward

Retired footballer Joey Barton has been sentenced over X posts he sent to football pundits Eni Aluko and Lucy Ward, along with broadcaster Jeremy Vine.

Barton, 43, had been found guilty of six counts of sending a grossly offensive electronic communication with intent to cause distress or anxiety.

He was sentenced to a six-month prison sentence, suspended for 18 months, at Liverpool Crown Court on Monday.

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Watch judge’s remarks in Barton sentencing

The former Manchester City, Newcastle United and Rangers midfielder had claimed he was the victim of a “political prosecution” and denied his aim was to “get clicks and promote himself”.

But the jury decided Barton, capped once for England in 2007, had “crossed the line between free speech and a crime” with the six posts he made on the social media platform.

The prosecution argued that Barton, who has 2.5 million followers, “may well be characterised as cutting, caustic, controversial and forthright”.

Peter Wright KC continued: “Everyone is entitled to express views that are all of those things.

“What someone is not entitled to do is to post communications electronically that are – applying those standards – beyond the pale of what is tolerable in society.”

Barton denied 12 counts of sending a grossly offensive electronic communication with intent to cause distress or anxiety between January and March last year.

He was found guilty on six counts, but cleared of another six.

Eni Aluko at London's Royal Courts of Justice last year for her libel claim against Barton. Photo: PA
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Eni Aluko at London’s Royal Courts of Justice last year for her libel claim against Barton. Photo: PA

In one post in January 2024, Barton compared Aluko and Ward to the “Fred and Rose West of football commentary”, and superimposed the women’s faces on a photograph of the serial murderers.

He also described Aluko as being in the “Joseph Stalin/Pol Pot category”, suggesting that she had “murdered hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of football fans’ ears”.

The jury found him not guilty in relation to the comparison with the Wests, Stalin and Pol Pot, but decided the superimposed image was grossly offensive.

Jeremy Vine. Pic: PA
Image:
Jeremy Vine. Pic: PA

Another message allegedly suggested Vine had a sexual interest in children, after the broadcaster posted a question relating to the posts about the football commentators asking whether Barton had a “brain injury”.

The court heard Barton replied to Vine’s tweet with a post referring to him as “you big bike nonce” and made references to convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The ex-footballer told the court the posts were “dark and stupid humour” and “crude banter”. He also said he had no intention of implying Vine was a paedophile.

Sentencing, the Honorary Recorder of Liverpool, Judge Andrew Menary KC, told Barton: “Robust debate, satire, mockery and even crude language may fall within permissible free speech.

“But when posts deliberately target individuals with vilifying comparisons to serial killers or false insinuations of paedophilia, designed to humiliate and distress, they forfeit their protection.

“As the jury concluded, your offences exemplify behaviour that is beyond this limit – amounting to a sustained campaign of online abuse that was not mere commentary but targeted, extreme and deliberately harmful.”

Barton was also given a two-year restraining order preventing him from contacting Aluko, Ward or Vine, or publishing any reference to them on a social media platform or broadcast platform.

He will also have to carry out 200 hours of unpaid work in the community and pay prosecution costs of £23,419.

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More arrests after ‘pepper spray’ incident at Heathrow Airport

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More arrests after 'pepper spray' incident at Heathrow Airport

Two more people have been arrested following a “pepper spray” incident at London’s Heathrow Airport

The incident took place shortly after 8am on Sunday, when two women were allegedly robbed of their suitcases after leaving the car park lift within the airport’s Terminal 3 building.

The alleged robbers then sprayed them with what is believed to be pepper spray, which then affected others nearby.

A 31-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of robbery and assault close to the scene on Sunday. He was released under investigation while enquiries continue.

Now, a 24-year-old man in Lambeth has been arrested on suspicion of robbery and assault and a 23-year-old woman on suspicion of conspiracy to commit robbery, the Metropolitan Police said.

The pair remain in custody.

London Ambulance Service attended the scene and treated 21 people, including a three-year-old girl.

Five people were taken to hospital. Their injuries are not believed to be life-changing or life-threatening.

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