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Nearly all of the new NHS funding announced by the chancellor will be eaten up by the costs of inflation and growing demand, with just £800m left over for the improvement of services.

In his autumn statement, Jeremy Hunt promised an additional £3.3bn in funding for the NHS for each of the next two years.

Analysis by the Nuffield Trust, shared exclusively with Sky News, suggests that rising prices and growing demand will use up three quarters of next year’s increase, and the entirety of the increase scheduled for 2024/25.

Half of the total funding boost is likely to be eaten up by inflation, as the UK endures a second year of rising prices. A Sky News analysis found that energy price increases added £121m to the running cost of NHS buildings in the year to March.

Inflation is expected to cost the health service £3.2bn over the next two years, while increased demand from a growing and ageing population is expected to cost the NHS a further £852m next year and £1.7bn the year after.

That leaves just £795m left over for improving services next year, a quarter of the £3.3bn headline funding boost.

The increase scheduled for 2024/25, meanwhile, is set to be entirely taken up in dealing with the pressures of inflation and growing demand.

More on Autumn Statement 2022

John Appleby, chief economist at the Nuffield Trust, said that the final amount “could be higher or lower”, depending on whether trusts overspend and whether certain key costs, like nurses’ pay, increase faster than expected.

Nurses are set to go on strike next month over the government’s decision not to raise their pay in line with inflation.

Rising energy costs are already putting NHS England’s finances under strain. Sky News analysis of data from NHS Digital found that an 18% rise in fuel prices added £121m to the running costs of the health service’s buildings in the year to March.

Many NHS trusts expect costs to rise further. A recent report by the British Medical Journal found that some trusts were budgeting for an additional £2m per month in fuel costs next year.

Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust confirmed to Sky News that it expects its annual energy bills to more than triple in 2023, adding £24m to its running costs.

It’s not just energy prices that are rising. The increased costs of hiring cleaners, for instance, has added £76m to the health service’s expenses over the past year, while higher costs for providing inpatient meals has added a further £38m.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of NHS Providers, told Sky News that the new money promised by the chancellor would allow the NHS to “just about keep the show on the road”.

“It will enable us to continue to manage a very difficult situation, and hopefully make further progress in areas like waiting lists.

“What it won’t do is address the fundamental issues and get the NHS to where the public would like it to be.”

More than 7 million people in England are currently waiting for treatment. That’s nearly one in eight of the population, and the number has been rising for 28 consecutive months.

NHS tracker postcode search: See how your local trust is performing through the year

The number of people waiting more than four hours at A&E is also at record levels, while ambulance response times are far above target.

David Maguire, senior analyst at the King’s Fund, told Sky News that local NHS trusts were likely to face “really, really tough decisions” about where to focus their resources in the coming years.

“You always have to prioritise emergency and urgent care. That might mean less focus on goals like improving productivity or investing in preventative care. We’re already seeing a pull back at the NHS England-level on some of the funding for transformation efforts, for example around digital technology and data usage.”

This wouldn’t be the first time the NHS has cut back on long-term investments in order to free up resources for frontline services.

Between 2014 and 2019, £4.3bn earmarked for capital investment was instead used to fund day-to-day spending.

That decision has left the NHS with a backlog of maintenance work worth £10.2bn – equivalent to 92% of the entire annual cost of running the NHS estates.

Nearly a fifth of that backlog (£1.8bn worth) is classified as “high risk”, meaning it could result in “catastrophic failure, major disruption to clinical services or deficiencies in safety liable to cause serious injury or prosecution”.

“We’ve got some hospitals which are currently being held up by struts,” said Mr Taylor.

“That’s not what you want people to be doing – lying in a hospital bed looking at a temporary strut holding up the roof. These hospitals aren’t currently dangerous, but in time they will become dangerous and this needs to be addressed.”

Dealing with the maintenance backlog is increasingly hampering the ability of trusts to invest in improving services. Last year, the NHS spent £1.4bn dealing with the maintenance backlog, 16% of its entire capital budget.

And that capital budget is already low by international standards. In the decade before the pandemic, OECD data shows, the UK’s long-term investments in the healthcare sector amounted to just 0.25% of GDP – compared to 0.38% in France and 0.69% in the US.

Reducing the waiting list

In order to reduce the number of patients waiting for treatment, NHS England set a target in February of returning NHS activity to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022-23, and increasing activity a further 29% within two years.

Thousands of additional staff have been hired in recent years, but the impact of COVID-19 and the demand of the target means that the NHS is still short of staff.

Trusts are increasingly hiring expensive agency workers to fill the gaps, adding further pressure to the budget.

Spending on agency workers reached £3bn in the year to March, up from £2.4bn two years earlier.

Hours before the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, the National Audit Office said the NHS was unlikely to meet its activity targets, pointing to the impact of inflation, staff shortages and productivity issues.

Despite a 13% increase in the number of clinical staff since 2018, the number of people being removed from the NHS waiting list each month has risen by just 2%.

NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard said the chancellor’s decision to increase funding for the health service showed that “the government has been serious about its commitment to prioritise the NHS”.

“While I am under no illusions that NHS staff face very testing times ahead, particularly over winter, this settlement should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its key priorities,” she said.

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890 people arrested at Palestine Action protest yesterday – including 17 on suspicion of assaulting police officers

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890 people arrested at Palestine Action protest yesterday - including 17 on suspicion of assaulting police officers

The Metropolitan Police has said 890 people were arrested at a protest against the banning of Palestine Action as a terror group on Saturday – including 17 on suspicion of assaulting officers.

A total of 857 individuals were arrested in Parliament Square in London under the Terrorism Act 2000 over alleged offences, the force said.

It added that a further 33 were arrested for other offences, with 17 of those detained on suspicion of assaulting officers. The Met Police did not say what the other 16 arrests were for.

Deputy Assistant Commissioner Claire Smart, who led the policing operation, thanked Met Police officers for their “professionalism and tireless work despite the level of abuse that they faced”.

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Ms Smart said: “The violence we encountered during the operation was coordinated and carried out by a group of people, many wearing masks to conceal their identity, intent on creating as much disorder as possible.

“Many of those individuals have now been arrested and we have begun securing charges.”

Defend Our Juries, which organised the demonstrations, insisted the rally was “the picture of peaceful protest”.

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‘Do I look like a terrorist?’ nurse at protest asks Sky News

Ms Smart also claimed that the “contrast between this demonstration and the other protests we policed yesterday, including the Palestine Coalition march attended by around 20,000 people, was stark”.

She added: “You can express your support for a cause without committing an offence under the Terrorism Act or descending into violence and disorder, and many thousands of people do that in London every week.

“We have a duty to enforce the law without fear or favour. If you advertise that you are intending to commit a crime, we have no option but to respond accordingly.”

Defend Our Juries previously estimated 1,500 had gathered for the rally on Saturday, where many held signs saying: “I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Pics: PA
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Pics: PA

The group has been banned as a terror group since 5 July after MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour of the move proposed by then-home secretary Yvette Cooper, making it illegal to express support for the group.

It came shortly after two Voyager aircraft suffered around £7m worth of damage at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire on 20 June.

Defence Secretary John Healey told Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that he expects newly appointed Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood to be “just as tough” as her predecessor on Palestine Action.

He said: “I expect her to defend the decision the government has taken to proscribe Palestine Action because of what some of its members are responsible for, and were planning for.”

Read more from Sky News:
Israel warns Gaza City residents to flee
Anger over Israeli president’s planned visit to UK
Sydney beaches closed after fatal shark attack

The Met Police previously said the consequences for those charged under the Terrorism Act include a maximum sentence of six months’ imprisonment.

The Home Office is set to appeal against the High Court ruling allowing Palestine Action’s co-founder, Huda Ammori, to proceed with a legal challenge against the government over the group’s ban.

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Labour considering using military barracks to house asylum seekers

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Labour considering using military barracks to house asylum seekers

Defence Secretary John Healey has told Sky News the government is considering using military barracks to house asylum seekers, as an estimated 1,000 people arrived in the UK on small boats on Saturday.

“We are looking at the potential use of military and non-military sites for temporary accommodation for the people who come across on these small boats that may not have a right to be here,” he told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips.

“I’m looking really hard at it. I’m looking at it with the Home Office, and I recognise that the loss of confidence of the public over recent years in Britain’s ability to control its borders needs to be satisfied. And we have to deal with this problem with the small boats,” Mr Healey added.

Politics latest: Labour considers housing migrants on military sites

The measure follows widespread protests this summer over housing migrants in hotels.

Fresh small boat arrivals were spotted on Sunday, after an estimated 1,000 people arrived on Saturday – when French authorities said 24 people were rescued while trying to cross the Channel.

The figures compare to a relatively recent lull in crossings. In the previous seven days (30 August to 5 September) the Home Office recorded no small boat arrivals.

More on Asylum

Zia Yusuf, head of policy at Reform UK, told Trevor Phillips that Britain has become a “soft touch” on migration, before suggesting between 15 and 25 detention sites will need to be built to detain asylum seekers. He described these as “purpose-built modular steel structures”.

“We can look around the world at where things have worked and worked well. President Trump stood up 3,000 detention beds in eight days. That was this year in the state of Florida – using steel modular structures,” Mr Yusuf said.

He added that the president’s crackdown has significantly reduced illegal border crossings and suggested the same could happen in the English Channel to deter migrants.

“These are unarmed, largely men in dinghies, we don’t need a particularly formidable military to be able to take them to a detention centre,” he said.

Zia Yusuf from Reform UK said he believes Britain has become a "soft touch" on migration
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Zia Yusuf from Reform UK said he believes Britain has become a “soft touch” on migration

Shabana Mahmood will have the job of tackling illegal immigration after taking over from Yvette Cooper as home secretary on Friday – when Sir Keir Starmer carried out a major cabinet reshuffle following the resignation of his deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.

National Crime Agency (NCA) figures show record levels of disruption of immigration crime networks in 2024/25.

Join the Sky News immigration debate

Officials believe this contributed to the lowest number of boats crossing the Channel in August since 2019.

But, despite the 3,567 arrivals in August being the lowest since 2021, when looking across the whole of 2025, the figure of 29,003 is the highest on record for this point in a year.

Sky’s Political Correspondent Liz Bates said that after Labour scrapped the previous government’s controversial Rwanda policy and shut down the Bibby Stockholm barge, ministers are “hitting up against many of the same problems” with “a really broken and very slow asylum system”.

“The context to all of this is a huge shake-up at the Home Office, and I think something of an admission that [Yvette] Cooper, despite her years of experience, could not get a grip… of this problem of people coming across the Channel in small boats and then ending up in asylum hotels,” she added.

Army bases were previously used by the Conservative government, but this prompted local protests, and the sites were widely criticised for their poor conditions in some cases.

Read more from Sky News:
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Huge rise in asylum protests
Attack on Epping asylum seeker

As Sky’s Home Editor Jason Farrell writes, Ms Mahmood has become the home secretary of a country where the national flag is being hoisted as a symbol of dissatisfaction – with anger at the arrival of desperate migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.

Sir Keir’s sweeping changes

Sir Keir Starmer has announced sweeping changes to his ministerial team in the Home Office as his government works to get a grip of illegal migration to the UK.

Here’s a list of who has been moved, besides the home secretary.

Dame Angela Eagle, who was border security and asylum minister, has been moved to the environment department.

Dame Diana Johnson, who was policing and crime minister, has been moved to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).

She has said in a post on X that it was an “honour” to work with police officers, and she is “delighted” to be moving to the DWP.

Dan Jarvis has been given a role in the Cabinet Office, in addition to his post as security minister in the Home Office.

And Sarah Jones, who was industry minister, has been moved to the Home Office.

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Harry wants to put ‘trials and tribulations’ behind him in first UK visit in months – but will he meet the King?

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Harry wants to put 'trials and tribulations' behind him in first UK visit in months - but will he meet the King?

Prince Harry will carry out a rare public engagement outside of London this week, as he heads back to the UK for a visit with “no negativity”.

After a tumultuous five years, the Duke of Sussex and his team are hoping this may be a trip that can help begin to “put the trials and tribulations behind them” and herald a reset, according to sources close to the royal.

It’s been confirmed the duke will be in Nottingham on Tuesday, visiting a youth organisation that he’s maintained strong personal contact with since moving to America.

Harry, who is no longer a working royal, is set to carry out a run of engagements and make a substantial donation to BBC Children in Need to support work tackling violence affecting young people.

Prince Harry, last seen in the UK in April 2025. Pic: AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali
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Prince Harry, last seen in the UK in April 2025. Pic: AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali

It is not known if he will meet with his estranged brother, the Prince of Wales, or his father, the King.

The King is currently in Balmoral with the Queen, and so far, no engagements have been announced for the couple this coming week.

The monarch last met his youngest son face-to-face more than 18 months ago, when the duke made a transatlantic dash to see his father after hearing about his cancer diagnosis. The pair spent less than an hour together.

‘There is no negativity with this trip,’ say sources close to Harry

Harry’s past visits to the UK, since stepping away from royal life, have often been shrouded in secrecy with any public moments taking place in London. This will also be the first time in a while that he isn’t returning due to a court case.

Sources close to Harry suggest that already means “there is no negativity with this trip” saying that “Harry is really looking forward to coming back to do what he loves”, focusing on his charity work.

“It’s a moment to put the trials and tribulations of the last few years behind us,” they added.

But Harry and his team are well aware that there will be considerable interest in whether or not he will see his father, the King. Hopes of reconciliation and a potential meeting were ramped up earlier in the summer when members of Harry’s team were photographed meeting with the King’s communications secretary for the first time. Both sides aren’t commenting on any possible contact between Harry and his father this week.

When Harry arrives in London on Monday the King will be in Scotland, marking Queen Elizabeth’s death and his Accession Day. But it’s understood that Harry is due to be in the UK for most of the coming week. The strain in the relationship between father and son was emphasised by Harry in an interview he gave after he lost his legal challenge against the Home Office over his security.

We also understand that his team have tried to “pack in as much as possible” in the coming days, with a number of private meetings and public visits to other organisations with which he has longstanding links.

We are told he will not be meeting lawyers.

Ultimately it appears that Prince Harry and his team are hoping this visit will have a different, more upbeat tone, compared to other recent trips to the UK, in what feels like a reset for the duke.

It has been suggested that he may have wanted to make the trip longer but as he’s “financially responsible” for the visit, including the travel and security bill for him and his team, his time here comes at a considerable cost.

Read more:
Harry’s broken relationship with Royal Family – how did we get here?
Harry and Meghan extend Netflix partnership

Harry last visited the Community Recording Studio (CRS) in Nottingham’s St Ann’s area to mark World Mental Health Day in 2019, just two months before he and the Duchess of Sussex announced they were stepping down as senior working royals and moving to North America.

The Duke of Sussex last visited the Community Recording Studio in Nottingham in 2019. Pic: PA
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The Duke of Sussex last visited the Community Recording Studio in Nottingham in 2019. Pic: PA

He is planning to hold a private briefing with Children in Need, the Police and Crime Commission, the CRS and community outreach group Epic Partners in Nottingham, stage informal catch-ups with some of the young people he met before, and watch performances from CRS artists and make a short speech.

Harry appears to be focusing on his philanthropic ventures while his wife, Meghan, works on her lifestyle brand, As Ever. She is not expected to join him on the trip to the UK.

Meghan is not expected to join the duke on his trip. Pic: Netflix
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Meghan is not expected to join the duke on his trip. Pic: Netflix

Senior aides to the King and the duke were pictured together in London this July in what was reported to be an initial step towards opening channels of communication between the two sides.

Harry levelled repeated accusations at the King, Queen, William and Kate in his Oprah interview, Netflix documentary, and memoir Spare. But he outlined hopes for a “reconciliation” with his family in a BBC interview in May.

His sit-down with the BBC came in the wake of a court battle over his security in the UK. His level of security was changed after the couple stepped down as senior royals.

Harry took a legal challenge to the Court of Appeal, which he ultimately lost in May. He said he “can’t see a world in which I would be bringing my wife and children back” to the UK.

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