NHS spending: Inflation and demand growth to wipe out almost all of £3.3bn extra funding announced by chancellor

Published

2 years ago

November 18, 2022

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Nearly all of the new NHS funding announced by the chancellor will be eaten up by the costs of inflation and growing demand, with just £800m left over for the improvement of services.

In his autumn statement, Jeremy Hunt promised an additional £3.3bn in funding for the NHS for each of the next two years.

Analysis by the Nuffield Trust, shared exclusively with Sky News, suggests that rising prices and growing demand will use up three quarters of next year’s increase, and the entirety of the increase scheduled for 2024/25.

Half of the total funding boost is likely to be eaten up by inflation, as the UK endures a second year of rising prices. A Sky News analysis found that energy price increases added £121m to the running cost of NHS buildings in the year to March.

Inflation is expected to cost the health service £3.2bn over the next two years, while increased demand from a growing and ageing population is expected to cost the NHS a further £852m next year and £1.7bn the year after.

That leaves just £795m left over for improving services next year, a quarter of the £3.3bn headline funding boost.

The increase scheduled for 2024/25, meanwhile, is set to be entirely taken up in dealing with the pressures of inflation and growing demand.

John Appleby, chief economist at the Nuffield Trust, said that the final amount “could be higher or lower”, depending on whether trusts overspend and whether certain key costs, like nurses’ pay, increase faster than expected.

Nurses are set to go on strike next month over the government’s decision not to raise their pay in line with inflation.

Rising energy costs are already putting NHS England’s finances under strain. Sky News analysis of data from NHS Digital found that an 18% rise in fuel prices added £121m to the running costs of the health service’s buildings in the year to March.

Many NHS trusts expect costs to rise further. A recent report by the British Medical Journal found that some trusts were budgeting for an additional £2m per month in fuel costs next year.

Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust confirmed to Sky News that it expects its annual energy bills to more than triple in 2023, adding £24m to its running costs.

It’s not just energy prices that are rising. The increased costs of hiring cleaners, for instance, has added £76m to the health service’s expenses over the past year, while higher costs for providing inpatient meals has added a further £38m.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of NHS Providers, told Sky News that the new money promised by the chancellor would allow the NHS to “just about keep the show on the road”.

“It will enable us to continue to manage a very difficult situation, and hopefully make further progress in areas like waiting lists.

“What it won’t do is address the fundamental issues and get the NHS to where the public would like it to be.”

More than 7 million people in England are currently waiting for treatment. That’s nearly one in eight of the population, and the number has been rising for 28 consecutive months.

NHS tracker postcode search: See how your local trust is performing through the year

The number of people waiting more than four hours at A&E is also at record levels, while ambulance response times are far above target.

David Maguire, senior analyst at the King’s Fund, told Sky News that local NHS trusts were likely to face “really, really tough decisions” about where to focus their resources in the coming years.

“You always have to prioritise emergency and urgent care. That might mean less focus on goals like improving productivity or investing in preventative care. We’re already seeing a pull back at the NHS England-level on some of the funding for transformation efforts, for example around digital technology and data usage.”

This wouldn’t be the first time the NHS has cut back on long-term investments in order to free up resources for frontline services.

Between 2014 and 2019, £4.3bn earmarked for capital investment was instead used to fund day-to-day spending.

That decision has left the NHS with a backlog of maintenance work worth £10.2bn – equivalent to 92% of the entire annual cost of running the NHS estates.

Nearly a fifth of that backlog (£1.8bn worth) is classified as “high risk”, meaning it could result in “catastrophic failure, major disruption to clinical services or deficiencies in safety liable to cause serious injury or prosecution”.

“We’ve got some hospitals which are currently being held up by struts,” said Mr Taylor.

“That’s not what you want people to be doing – lying in a hospital bed looking at a temporary strut holding up the roof. These hospitals aren’t currently dangerous, but in time they will become dangerous and this needs to be addressed.”

Dealing with the maintenance backlog is increasingly hampering the ability of trusts to invest in improving services. Last year, the NHS spent £1.4bn dealing with the maintenance backlog, 16% of its entire capital budget.

And that capital budget is already low by international standards. In the decade before the pandemic, OECD data shows, the UK’s long-term investments in the healthcare sector amounted to just 0.25% of GDP – compared to 0.38% in France and 0.69% in the US.

Reducing the waiting list

In order to reduce the number of patients waiting for treatment, NHS England set a target in February of returning NHS activity to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022-23, and increasing activity a further 29% within two years.

Thousands of additional staff have been hired in recent years, but the impact of COVID-19 and the demand of the target means that the NHS is still short of staff.

Trusts are increasingly hiring expensive agency workers to fill the gaps, adding further pressure to the budget.

Spending on agency workers reached £3bn in the year to March, up from £2.4bn two years earlier.

Hours before the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, the National Audit Office said the NHS was unlikely to meet its activity targets, pointing to the impact of inflation, staff shortages and productivity issues.

Despite a 13% increase in the number of clinical staff since 2018, the number of people being removed from the NHS waiting list each month has risen by just 2%.

NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard said the chancellor’s decision to increase funding for the health service showed that “the government has been serious about its commitment to prioritise the NHS”.

“While I am under no illusions that NHS staff face very testing times ahead, particularly over winter, this settlement should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its key priorities,” she said.

UK

‘Major incident’ declared in Northern Ireland as wildfire breaks out amid higher-than-normal temperatures

Published

20 mins ago

April 6, 2025

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'Major incident' declared in Northern Ireland as wildfire breaks out amid higher-than-normal temperatures

A major incident has been declared in Northern Ireland after a wildfire broke out, the latest in a series of blazes seen across the UK over the past week amid soaring temperatures.

More than 100 firefighters and 14 fire appliances were at the scene of the “significant” wildfire on Sandbank Road, Hilltown, Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service said.

The fire had a front of approximately two miles “including a large area of forestry close to property”, the service said.

“Local residents are requested to avoid the area, a number of roads have been closed, to help support firefighting operations,” the fire service added.

“We ask that all members of the public remain particularly vigilant to the risk of fire at this time. We can reassure members of the public that normal service delivery is being maintained.”

Various fires erupted across England this week amid uncharacteristically warm and dry conditions for the time of year.

On Saturday, helicopters were deployed to tackle Scotland’s fourth wildfire this week, with police saying a blaze “which started in the Newton Stewart area has spread northwards and is expected to reach the Loch Doon area of East Ayrshire around 12am on Sunday”.

Police Scotland added: “As a precautionary measure members of the public are asked to avoid the Loch Doon area and anyone who may be camping in the area is advised to leave.”

Elsewhere in England, Devon and Cornwall Police said they were assisting the fire service with temporary road closures on the A30 in the Bolventor area as they tackle “a number of fires” on moorland.

In Dorset, Moors Valley Country Park was forced to close after multiple wildfires broke out there on Wednesday.

Separate incidents were then reported at Upton Heath in Poole on Wednesday, and nearby Canford Heath in the early hours of Thursday.

Friday was officially the warmest day of the year so far – with temperatures in the south of England reaching 23C (73.4F) – the highest since 21 September last year, according to the Met Office.

The weather conditions triggered a “severe” wildfire rating for parts of the UK on Tuesday.

UK

Labour MP Dan Norris arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences

Published

9 hours ago

April 5, 2025

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Labour MP Dan Norris arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences

Labour MP Dan Norris has been arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences.

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Dan Norris MP was immediately suspended by the Labour Party upon being informed of his arrest.

“We cannot comment further while the police investigation is ongoing.”

Police said a man in his 60s had been arrested on Friday on suspicion of sexual offences against a girl, rape, child abduction and misconduct in a public office.

Sky News has contacted Mr Norris for comment.

Mr Norris, 65, defeated Jacob Rees-Mogg to win the new seat of North East Somerset and Hanham in last year’s general election.

He has also lost the party whip in the House of Commons and has stepped down from his role as chair of the League Against Cruel Sports.

Avon and Somerset Police said in a statement: “In December 2024, we received a referral from another police force relating to alleged non-recent child sex offences having been committed against a girl.

“Most of the offences are alleged to have occurred in the 2000s, but we’re also investigating an alleged offence of rape from the 2020s.

“An investigation, led by officers within Operation Bluestone, our dedicated rape and serious sexual assault investigation team, remains ongoing and at an early stage.

“The victim is being supported and given access to any specialist help or support she needs.

“A man, aged in his 60s, was arrested on Friday (April 4) on suspicion of sexual offences against a girl (under the Sexual Offences Act 1956), rape (under the Sexual Offences Act 2003), child abduction and misconduct in a public office. He’s been released on conditional bail for enquiries to continue.

“This is an active and sensitive investigation, so we’d respectfully ask people not to speculate on the circumstances so our enquiries can continue unhindered.”

Mr Norris first entered Parliament when Tony Blair came to power in 1997 and served as the Wansdyke MP until 2010.

He was an assistant whip under Mr Blair and served as a junior minister under Gordon Brown.

Mr Norris has also been West of England mayor since 2021 but is due to step down ahead of May’s local elections.

A spokesman for the League Against Cruel Sports, a UK-based animal welfare charity which campaigns to end sports such as fox hunting and game bird shooting, confirmed he had stepped down from his role.

“The charity cannot comment further while an investigation is ongoing,” a statement said.

UK

Jaguar Land Rover to ‘pause’ US shipments over Donald Trump tariffs

Published

17 hours ago

April 5, 2025

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Jaguar Land Rover to 'pause' US shipments over Donald Trump tariffs

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has said it will “pause” shipments to the US as the British car firm works to “address the new trading terms” of Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The US president has introduced a 25% levy on all foreign cars imported into the country, which came into force on Thursday.

JLR, one of the country’s biggest carmakers, exported about 38,000 cars to the US in the third quarter of 2024 – almost equal to the amount sold to the UK and the EU combined.

Follow live updates: Trump’s baseline 10% tariff kicks in

In a statement on Saturday, a spokesperson for the company behind the Jaguar, Land Rover and Range Rover brands said: “The USA is an important market for JLR’s luxury brands.

“As we work to address the new trading terms with our business partners, we are taking some short-term actions including a shipment pause in April, as we develop our mid- to longer-term plans.”

The company released a statement last week before Mr Trump announced a “baseline” 10% tariff on goods from around the world, which kicked in on Saturday morning, on what he called “liberation day”.

JLR reassured customers its business was “resilient” and “accustomed to changing market conditions”.

“Our priorities now are delivering for our clients around the world and addressing these new US trading terms,” the firm said.

Trading across the world has been hit by Mr Trump’s tariff announcement at the White House on Wednesday.

All but one stock on the FTSE 100 fell on Friday – with Rolls-Royce, banks and miners among those to suffer the sharpest losses.

Cars are the top product exported from the UK to the US, with exports worth £8.3bn in the year to the end of September 2024, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.

For UK carmakers, the US is the second largest export market behind the European Union.

Industry groups have previously warned the tariffs will force firms to rethink where they trade, while a report by thinktank the Institute for Public Policy Research said more than 25,000 car manufacturing jobs in the UK could be at risk.