UK economy made worse by ‘own goals’ like Brexit and Truss mini-budget, IFS economist says
Brexit, slashing investment and Liz Truss’s mini-budget are among the “own goals” that have led to the UK’s dire financial straits, according to a top economist.
Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), has been speaking about what left the UK in a position where yesterday’s autumn statement – that will leave more than half of all households worse off – was deemed necessary.
He said: “Let’s start with slashing investment spending, that was something announced under the last Labour government and continued by George Osborne.
“Cutting spending on education, particularly huge cuts to vocational and further education, but also to schools over that period.”
Politics live: Middle England set for a shock’ and higher taxes ‘here to stay’ –
Mr Johnson added that “very clearly, Brexit was an economic own-goal”.
“There may be other reasons for Brexit, but economically speaking that has been very bad news indeed and continues to be bad news, particularly the way that we’ve done it, the hard type of Brexit we’ve had, distancing ourselves from the single market,” he said.
Mr Johnson also pointed to Ms Truss’s tax slashing mini-budget – which inflicted around £30bn worth of damage as it sent the markets into freefall, the value of the pound plummeting, mortgage rates soaring and forced the Bank of England to intervene to stop pension funds collapsing.
“Obviously the mini-budget of a couple of months didn’t help. In fact, that was another large own-goal,” he said.
Read more: Middle earners facing same tax hit as those on six-figures | Ed Conway
While most of the policies of the short-lived Truss administration have now been reversed, Mr Johnson said the political instability of recent months was also not good for the economy.
“There have been three prime ministers and four chancellors in a few months.
“And to be reversing policy here, there and everywhere, to be uncertain about your trading relationship with the rest of Europe, to have corporation tax going up, down and round and round and round, all of that is bad for growth.”
The chancellor presented his highly-anticipated autumn statement to parliament on Thursday, littered with stealth taxes and curbs on government spending amounting to £55bn in an attempt to plug the black hole in the public finances.
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‘Difficult time for everyone,’ says Hunt
He sought to blame Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the “global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis” and said “we have risen to bigger challenges before”.
But Labour has blamed “12 weeks of Conservative chaos” and “12 years of Conservative economic failure” for the bleak outlook.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned the disposable incomes of UK households would fall by 7.1% over the next two years – the biggest drop on record.
Mr Johnson warned that this will “hit everyone”, adding that “middle England is set for quite a shock”.
“The truth is we just got a lot poorer. We are in for a long, hard, unpleasant journey; a journey that has been made more arduous that it might have been by a series of economic own goals,” he said.
Read more: Chancellor’s autumn statement had all hallmarks of a Labour budget | Beth Rigby
As a result of Mr Hunt’s announcements, the tax burden in the UK will now be at its highest since the Second World War, and there are stark warnings about increased bills and higher unemployment as the recession takes hold – as well as predictions the economy will still shrink 1.4% in 2023.
Speaking to Sky News earlier, the chancellor said it was “a difficult time for everyone” but tax hikes and spending cuts are needed to get the economy “on an even keel”.
“Over the next two years it is going to be challenging,” he said.
“But I think people want a government that is taking difficult decisions, has a plan that will bring down inflation, stop those big rises in the cost of energy bills and the weekly shop, and at the same time is taking measures to get through this difficult period.”
OpenAI has signed its first major licensing deal to bring well-known characters to life on its Sora video generation tool.
The company said the agreement with Walt Disney was part of a push to ensure the rights of creators in the generative artificial intelligence (AI) space amid growing concerns over copyright, fakes and misinformation.
It forms part of a $1bn Disney investment in OpenAI, that will see the entertainment firm roll out ChatGPT to its staff and grow its AI capabilities.
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The initial three-year licensing deal will allow Sora users to generate and share videos based on more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Pixar and Star Wars characters.
These include Mickey Mouse, Cinderella and Luke Skywalker.
Sora allows people to quickly create realistic clips based merely on text prompts.
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Why authors may be right to fear AI
Disney and OpenAI said they were committed to responsible use of AI amid the backlash from critics who have pointed to widespread misuse of generative AI in the social media space – a practice known as AI slop.
Some have depicted fake messages from celebrities and even used the dead.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said: “This agreement shows how AI companies and creative leaders can work together responsibly to promote innovation that benefits society, respect the importance of creativity, and help works reach vast new audiences.
His counterpart at Disney, Bob Iger, added that the partnership would “extend the reach of our storytelling through generative AI, while respecting and protecting creators and their works”.
As part of the deal, some user-generated Sora videos will be made available on the Disney+ streaming service.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said of the tie-up: “It’s a win-win situation for Disney and OpenAI. Disney gets to deploy its beloved brands in the world of AI while keeping control of the intellectual property.
“Fans can use Disney characters to make videos and take social media content to another level. That could drive significant traffic to OpenAI’s Sora social media platform, turning a relatively unknown entity into a household name in a flash.
“As part owner of the business, Disney will be able to use the equity stake in OpenAI to ensure its characters are used in a controlled environment.
“It’s a significant step forward for the concept of fan fiction”, he concluded.
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