The big new Exxon Mobil climate change deal that got an assist from Joe Biden
Could it be that Big Oil’s next big thing got a big assist from Joe Biden?
Maybe, if carbon capture and storage is indeed as big a deal as ExxonMobil’s first-of-its-kind deal to extract, transport and store carbon from other companies’ factories implies.
The deal, announced last month, calls for ExxonMobil to capture carbon emitted by CF Industries‘ ammonia factory in Donaldsonville, La., and transport it to underground storage using pipelines owned by Enlink Midstream. Set to start up in 2025, the deal is meant to herald a new stage in dealing with carbon produced by manufacturers, and is the latest step in ExxonMobil’s often-tense dialogue with investors who want oil companies to slash emissions.
The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August, may determine whether deals like Exxon’s become a trend. The law expands tax credits for capturing carbon from industrial uses in a bid to offset the high up-front costs of plans to capture carbon from places like CF’s plant, as other tax credits in the law lower costs of renewable power and electric cars.
The Inflation Reduction Act and Big Oil
The law may help oil companies like ExxonMobil build profitable businesses to replace some of the revenue and profit they’ll lose as EVs proliferate. Though the company isn’t sharing financial projections, it has committed to investing $15 billion in CCS by 2027 and ExxonMobil Low-Carbon Solutions president Dan Ammann says it may invest more.
“We see a big business opportunity here,” Ammann told CNBC’s David Faber. “We’re seeing interest from companies across a whole range of industries, a whole range of sectors, a whole range of geographies.”
The deal calls for ExxonMobil to capture and remove 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide yearly from CF’s factory, equivalent to replacing 700,000 gasoline-powered vehicles with electric versions.
Each company involved is pursuing its own version of the low-carbon industrial economy. CF wants to produce more carbon-free blue ammonia, a process that often involves extracting ammonia’s components from carbon-laden fossil fuels. Enlink hopes to become a kind of railroad for captured CO2 emissions, calling itself the would-be “CO2 transportation provider of choice” for an industrial corridor laden with refineries and chemical plants.
An industrial facility on the Houston Ship Channel where Exxon Mobil is proposing a carbon capture and sequestration network. Between this industry-wide plan and its first deal for another company’s CCS needs, ExxonMobil is hoping that its low-carbon business quickly scales to a legitimate source of revenue and profit.
CNBC
Exxon itself wants to develop carbon capture as a new business, Amman said, pointing to a “very big backlog of similar projects,” part of the company’s pledge to remove as much carbon from the atmosphere as Exxon itself emits by 2050.
“We want oil companies to be active participants in carbon reduction,” said Julio Friedmann, a deputy assistant energy secretary under President Obama and chief scientist at Carbon Direct in New York. “It’s my expectation that this can become a flagship project.”
The key to the sudden flurry of activity is the Inflation Reduction Act.
“It’s a really good example of the intersection of good policy coming together with business and the innovation that can happen on the business side to tackle the big problem of emissions and the big problem of climate change,” Ammann said. “The interest we are seeing, the backlog, are all confirming this is starting to move and starting to move quickly.”
The law increased an existing tax credit for carbon capture to $85 a ton from $45, Goldman said, which will save the Exxon/CF/Enlink project as much as $80 million a year. Credits for captured carbon used underground to enhance production of more fossil fuels are lower, at $60 per ton.
“Carbon capture is a big boys’ game,” said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrial, materials and energy research at consulting firm Third Bridge. “These are billion-dollar projects. It’s big companies capturing large amounts of carbon. And big oil and gas companies are where the expertise is.”
Goldman Sachs, and environmentalists, are skeptical
A Goldman Sachs team led by analyst Brian Singer called the law “transformative” for climate reduction technologies including battery storage and clean hydrogen. But its analysis is less bullish when it comes to the impact on carbon capture projects like Exxon’s, with Singer expecting more modest gains as the law accelerates development in longer-term projects. To speed up investment more, companies must build CCS systems at greater scale and invent more efficient carbon-extraction chemistry, the Goldman team said.
Industrial uses are the third-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., according to the EPA. That’s narrowly behind both electricity production and transportation. Emissions reduction in industrial uses is considered more expensive and difficult than in either power generation or car and truck transport. Industry is the focus for CCS because utilities and vehicle makers are looking first to other technologies to cut emissions.
Almost 20 percent of U.S. electricity last year came from renewable sources that replace coal and natural gas and another 19 percent came from carbon-free nuclear power, according to government data. Renewables’ share is rising rapidly in 2022, according to interim Energy Department reports, and the IRA also expands tax credits for wind and solar power. Most airlines plan to reduce their carbon footprint by switching to biofuels over the next decade.
More oil and chemical companies seem likely to get on the carbon capture bandwagon first. In May, British oil giant BP and petrochemical maker Linde announced a plan to capture 15 million tons of carbon annually at Linde’s plants in Greater Houston. Linde wants to expand its sales of low-carbon hydrogen, which is usually made by mixing natural gas with steam and a chemical catalyst. In March, Oxy announced a deal with a unit of timber producer Weyerhauser. Oxy won the rights to store carbon underneath 30,000 acres of Weyerhauser’s forest land, even as it continues to grow trees on the surface, with both companies prepared to expand to other sites over time.
Still, environmentalists remain skeptical of CCS.
Tax credits may cut the cost of CCS to companies, but taxpayers still foot the bill for what remains a “boondoggle,” said Carroll Muffett, CEO of the Center for International Environmental Law in Washington. The biggest part of industrial emissions comes from the electricity that factories use, and factory owners should reduce that part of their carbon footprint with renewable power as a top priority, he said.
“It makes no economic sense at the highest levels, and the IRA doesn’t change that,” Muffett said. “It just changes who takes the risk.”
Friedman countered by saying economies of scale and technical innovations will trim costs, and that CCS can reduce carbon emissions by as much as 10 percent over time.
“It’s a rather robust number,” Friedmann said. “And it’s about things you can’t easily address any other way.”
The US wind industry installed just 5.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 – the lowest level in a decade, according to Wood Mackenzie’s new US Wind Energy Monitor report. Installations are expected to rebound in 2025, but the real concern lies in US wind’s sharply downgraded 5-year outlook. As for the reason behind that bleak forecast, we’ll give you one guess as to why, and it starts with a T.
Wood Mac reports that 3.9 GW of onshore wind came online last year, along with 1.3 GW of onshore repowers and 101 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind.
Onshore wind
The US is expected to achieve more than 160 GW of installed onshore capacity by 2025, and onshore growth is projected to bounce back from 2024 and surpass 6.3 GW this year.
“The cliff in 2023 and 2024 created by the Production Tax Credit (PTC) push in 2022 will come to an end,” said Stephen Maldonado, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Despite the uncertainty created by the new administration, the massive number of orders placed in 2023 culminating in projects now under construction support the short-term forecast.”
The pipeline for onshore has 10.8 GW currently under construction through 2027, with another 3.9 GW announced.
GE Vernova led onshore wind installations in 2024 with 56% of the market and will continue to lead in connections for the next five years. It was followed by Vestas (40%) and Siemens Gamesa (4%).
Offshore wind
Offshore wind is projected to increase in 2025 as well, with 900 MW of installed capacity, up from a disappointing 101 MW in 2024. However, several projects have been shelved in the wake of Trump’s anti-wind executive orders, which downgraded the five-year outlook by 1.8 GW.
Electrek’s Take on US wind’s 5-year outlook
According to Wood Mac, 33 GW of new onshore wind capacity will be installed through 2029, along with 6.6 GW of new offshore capacity and 5.5 GW of repowers. However, due to Trump’s anti-wind policy and economic uncertainty, this five-year outlook is 40% less than a previous total of 75.8 GW. Growth will happen, but it’s going to be slower.
The main reason is Trump’s flourish of his Sharpie on executive orders that include “temporary” withdrawal of offshore wind leasing areas and putting a stop to onshore wind on federal lands. Plus, firing all those federal employees will likely make permitting wind farms a slower process. (Trump just wrote more executive orders today allowing coal projects on federal lands; he won’t have federal employees to issue permits for those, either.) He’s worked to throw up obstacles for wind projects in favor of fossil fuels. He won’t stop the wind industry, but he’s managed to get some projects canceled, and he’ll make things more of a slog over the next few years.
Read more: Coal is dead and Trump’s executive order won’t revive it
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BYD’s cheapest EV in China just got even more affordable. After cutting prices this month, the BYD Seagull EV starts at just 56,800 yuan, or under $8,000.
BYD cuts Seagull EV price to under $8,000 in April
Despite an intensifying EV price war in China, BYD is cutting prices once again. The Chinese EV giant announced a new promotion this month across several Ocean Series models, including the Seagull.
The 2025 BYD Seagull EV is available starting at just 56,800 yuan ($7,800). The offer is for the non-Smart Driving Vitality Edition model, which usually starts at 69,800 yuan ($9,500).
After launching the new Seagull last year, BYD said the low-cost electric car officially opened “a new era of electricity being lower than oil.” Earlier this year, it upgraded most of its vehicles, including the Seagull, with its new “God’s Eye” smart driving system at no extra charge.
BYD’s Seagull is offered in three trims in China: Vitality, Freedom, and Flying. It has two battery options, 30.1 kWh or 38.9 kWh, which is good for the 305 km (190 mi) and 405 km (252 mi) CLTC range, respectively.
At just 3,780 mm long, 1,715 mm wide, and 1,540 mm tall, the Seagull is even smaller than the former Chevy Bolt EV (4,145 mm long, 1,765 mm wide, and 1,611 mm tall). It’s about the size of a Fiat 500e.
The price cut comes as BYD’s sales continue surging. With another 377,420 new energy vehicles (EVs and PHEVs) sold last month, the Chinese automaker has now sold over one million NEVs in 2025.
BYD’s EVs accounted for 416,388 while PHEV sales reached 569,710, an increase of 39% and 76% from last year, respectively.
| BYD Seagull EV trim | Starting Price | Range (CLTC) |
| Vitality | Normal: $9,500 (69,800 yuan) Now: $8,000 (56,800 yuan) |
190 mi (305 km) |
| Freedom | $10,300 (75,800 yuan) | 190 mi (305 km) |
| Flying | $11,700 (85,800 yuan) | 252 mi (405 km) |
Perhaps even more importantly, BYD sold over 206,000 vehicles overseas in 2025, more than doubling from last year. The Seagull EV is also sold in other global markets like Mexico and Brazil as the Dolphin Mini.
Later this year, it will launch in Europe as the Dolphin Surf, with expected prices starting under £20,000 ($26,000). Although it may not be the cheapest EV, BYD’s executive vice president, Stella Li, recently told Autocar it will be “the best value” when it arrives.
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Tesla has new Model Y inventory available today in the US, just days after opening orders for what is supposed to be its most popular model.
This proves that demand is terrible and Tesla is trying to hide it.
On Friday, Tesla launched the new non-Launch Edition Model Y in North America.
Prior to the launch, only a fully loaded $60,000 Launch Edition Model Y was available to order since January, and had been delivered since early March.
Now, North American buyers are able to buy a much cheaper version of the new Model Y for $49,000.
Only the Model Y Long Range AWD is available for now, but that’s Tesla’s most popular model in North America.
At the time, we noted that this is a great demand test for Tesla in the US amid some critical brand issues due to CEO Elon Musk.
We only have a few metrics to track the demand of the new Model Y in the US:
- Delivery timelines on new orders
- Available inventory
- Discounts/incentives
For most US zip codes tested by Electrek with different Model Y configurations (wheels and paint colors), Tesla quotes delivery within “1-3 weeks”.
But we also found several zip codes on both the West Coast and the East Coast where Tesla claims it can deliver the new vehicle “today”:
This would point to Tesla already having vehicles in inventory despite launching it just 4 days ago.
But Tesla is hiding the inventory.
If you search for Model Y in Tesla’s new inventory, you can’t find any in the US at the time of writing:
However, Tesla is showing some units in inventory to people configuring new Model Ys.
Some potential buyers are reporting that Tesla has a tab that pops up and directs them to some new inventory available (via TroyTeslike on Patreon):
This confirms that Tesla already has new non-Launch Edition Model Y in inventory available for sale in the US – pointing to Tesla having no backlog of demand for the new vehicle.
Electrek’s Take
This is much worse than I thought. I thought that Tesla would build a backlog of demand for the new Model Y in the US from people who didn’t want the fully loaded version, but it looks like that backlog lasted 4 days.
Of course, it’s all because of Tesla and Elon, and brand destruction.
Many people who invested in the stock market lost a lot of money over the last few weeks, and these people often happen to be people who buy new cars.
Now, the only thing left is for Tesla to start offering discounts and subsidies financing – the latter likely coming first, as it is already the case with new Model 3 orders in the US.
The good news for Tesla is that if Trump continues to crash the stock market, the Fed will likely have to reduce rates, making Tesla’s 0% financing cheaper to subsidize.
That’s a fun balancing act.
Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tesla offer incentives on the new Model Y in the US within the next 2 weeks – way ahead of schedule.
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