Ukrainian forces could be back in Crimea by the end of December and the entire war with Russia will be over by the spring, a Ukrainian deputy defence minister has predicted.
Volodymyr Havrylov, a retired major general, said his country would never stop fighting until victory and had even factored in the potential of a Russian nuclear strike.
The minister, in an interview with Sky News, said he believed the probability of an atomic attack by Russia to be low, but said: “Yeah, it would be drama.
“For everybody it will be just – God knows what scenario – but it [a tactical nuclear strike] is not [a] threat which will stop us from… continuing our war.”
In terms of the prospect for peace talks with the Kremlin, Mr Havrylov said they would only happen once Russian troops are ready to leave every inch of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula that President Vladimir Putin seized in 2014 and swathes of the east of Ukraine that have been held by Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years.
“There is a decision inside the society in Ukraine that we are going up to the end,” he said in London during a trip to the UK this week.
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“It doesn’t matter what kind of scenario is on the table.
“People paid a lot of blood, a lot of efforts to what we have already achieved.
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“And everybody knows that any delay or frozen conflict is only the continuation of this war against the existence of Ukraine as a nation.”
Ukraine’s troops, backed by Western weapons, achieved a hugely significant win earlier this month with the recapture of the southern city of Kherson, forcing Russian troops to retreat back to the eastern side of the Dnipro River.
It had been the only regional capital taken by Russia.
Asked if the success made other goals feel more likely, such as retaking Crimea, Mr Havrylov said: “It’s only a matter of time and, of course, we would like to make it sooner than later.”
He said this could be helped by what is known as a “black swan” event – something unpredictable – happening in Russia, such as the sudden collapse of the Putin regime.
“I think Russia can face a black swan in their country, inside Russia and it can contribute to the success of us with Crimea,” the minister said, speaking in fluent English.
There was “also a military option as well with some kind of combination of forces, resources and something else”.
“We can step in Crimea, for example, by the end of December. Possible, possible. Not excluded that it be so,” he added.
Mr Havrylov believed Ukrainian troops would continue to fight through the winter, exploiting their momentum, despite the harsh conditions, with freezing temperatures and exhaustion.
He said that they did not have a choice because any pause in operations would give the Russian side a greater chance to replenish their stocks and bring in reinforcements.
“They’re interested in just making a pause in this war to regroup, to bring more people from the motherland… that’s the dream.
“That’s why… we have no right to stop. We have to advance,” he said.
As to when the war will end, Mr Havrylov said as a military it was important to be prepared for a long fight if Russia is able to reinforce.
“Of course, in this case, the war will take some time. But my feeling is that by the end of the spring, this war will be over.”
Outgoing US President Joe Biden is set to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping today for what is likely to be his last time as US president.
The two leaders are expected to hold talks on the sidelines of a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in the Peruvian capital, Lima.
It comes against the backdrop of increasing tension in the US-China relationship with a potential trade war looming under a Trump presidency, several China hawks tapped for US cabinet positions and China’s growing status among global south countries as an emerging leader of an alternative world order.
This week China was focused on events in the southern city of Zhuhai.
First there was a car ramming attack at Zhuhai’s sports stadium which left 25 people dead. A shocking event that was heavily censored in China.
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What happened at Zhuhai sports centre?
Less than an hour’s drive away the country was holding its premier air show.
It was a military enthusiast’s dream, and not even intermittent rain could keep the crowds of tens of thousands of people away from relishing in the roar of jets in the skies above Zhuhai.
China’s fighter jet fleet
One of the main drawcards was China’s newest stealth fighter the J-35A. It will join the country’s J-20 in service for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
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The J-10C was China’s aerobatics star of the show. There were daily displays of its prowess in sky-high manoeuvres and formations that impressed onlookers, leaving a streak of colours across the cloudy rain-clogged sky.
China’s military modernsiation programme is continuing apace
It boasts the largest navy in the world and the largest armed forces by active-duty personnel.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Airforce is developing fast too.
Dr Nicole Leveringhaus, a China security expert from King’s College London, says: “China started with very little. It was devastated by wars on many fronts in the 30s and 40s. Its defence industry was depleted. In 70-plus years it’s built itself up and now we’re seeing the results.
“It’s an impressive feat to go from a bloated land-based peasant guerrilla army to what it has to today.”
Chinese pride and nationalism on display
Enjoying the air show spectacle, military fan Liu Liansong said: “I think the air show is great. It is a firm manifestation of the air force’s development from scratch. We as Chinese people feel very proud.”
The air show included massive exhibition halls of military hardware, from drones to robotics, firearms and mock missiles. Merely getting from one end of the venue to the other through densely packed crowds was a mission.
Russia in the air
The other crowd puller this week was Russia’s aerobatic air force unit, performing daily theatrics at dizzying speeds.
It is another sign of the deepening ties between China and Russia.
One Russian tourist and recreational pilot, Yulia, told Sky News: “Both sides are looking for good communication in business, aviation and in many spheres including tourism.”
The secretary of Russia’s security council and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu also visited the air show, viewing both Chinese and Russian-made jets.
In Beijing, secretary Shoigu was quoted by Russian state media as saying: “I see the most important task as countering the policy of ‘dual containment’ of Russia and China pursued by the United States and its satellites.”
The West is increasingly frustrated by China’s support of Russia. The US has sanctioned two Chinese companies, accusing them of being involved in the production of Russian aerial drones used on the battlefield.
China insists it is not supplying weapons to Russia.
One of the companies, Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co, had a small stand in one of the exhibition halls. Its representatives declined Sky News’ request for an interview.
Tariff war brewing
Despite the raw military might on display in Zhuhai, in China there is uncertainty and unease about what an impending Donald Trump presidency will mean for global trade.
President-elect Trump has threatened blanket tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products exported to the US.
This would be a serious blow to China’s target GDP growth and comes at a time when the country’s economy faces deep-set challenges.
At the other end of the country, in Beijing analysts are weighing up the impact of possible tariffs and the Chinese government’s options to respond.
Senior Asia analyst Chim Lee, from The Economist Intelligence Unit, is not optimistic that a US-China agreement to minimise the damage can be reached.
“I think both sides have recognised that the era of making deals is passed,” Mr Lee said.
“We’re going to see China starting with some targeted measures, tariffs it feels more comfortable to impose,” he explained. “But there are also areas where China is starting to be a bit more aggressive.”
This action could include export controls on China’s production of critical minerals and retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture exports.
Trade competition, military posturing and complicated geo-political alliances have set the stage for a challenging next phase in US-China relations.
New pictures show the moment of impact as an Israeli missile hit a Beirut apartment block and exploded.
The block was one of five buildings destroyed by airstrikes on Friday alone.
Israel launched airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut in a fourth consecutive day of intense attacks.
There were no immediate reports of casualties.
An Associated Press photographer captured a sequence of images showing an Israeli bomb approaching and hitting a multi-storey apartment building in Beirut’s Tayouneh area.
Richard Weir, a senior crisis, conflict and arms researcher at Human Rights Watch, reviewed the close-up photos to determine what type of weapon was used.
“The bomb and components visible in the photographs, including the strake, wire harness cover, and tail fin section, are consistent with a Mk-84 series 2,000-pound class general purpose bomb equipped with Boeing’s joint directed attack munition tail kit,” he told AP.
Deadly strikes as bombardment stepped up
Israel stepped up its bombardment this week – an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in US-led diplomacy towards a ceasefire.
The Israeli military said its fighter jets attacked munitions warehouses, a headquarters and other Hezbollah infrastructure. It issued a warning on social media identifying buildings ahead of the strikes.
Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed five members of the same family in a home in Ain Qana in the southern province of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon’s state media said.
The report said a mother, father and their three children were killed but didn’t provide their ages.
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Three other Israeli strikes killed six people and wounded 32 in different parts of Tyre province on Friday, also in south Lebanon, the report said.
Video footage also showed a building being struck and turning into a cloud of rubble and debris that billowed into Horsh Beirut, the city’s main park.
More than 3,200 people have been killed in Lebanon during 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah – most of them since mid-September.
About 27% of those killed were women and children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
Israel dramatically escalated its bombardment of Lebanon from September, vowing to cripple Hezbollah and end its barrages in Israel.
Friday’s strikes come as Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister has asked Iran to help secure a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah.
The prime minister appeared to urge Ali Larijani, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to convince the militant group to agree to a deal that could require it to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border.
Iran is a main backer of Hezbollah and for decades has been funding and arming the Lebanese militant group.
On Thursday, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister and a member of its security cabinet, said that prospects for a ceasefire with Lebanon were the most promising since the conflict began.
The Washington Post reported Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rushing to advance a Lebanon ceasefire to deliver an early foreign policy win to his ally, US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Super high-IQ revolutionaries” who are willing to work 80+ hours a week are being urged to join Elon Musk’s new cost-cutting department in Donald Trump’s incoming US government.
The X and Tesla owner will co-lead the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
In a reply to an interested party, Mr Musk suggested the lucky applicants would be working for free.
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“Indeed, this will be tedious work, make lost of enemies & compensation is zero,” the world’s richest man wrote.
“What a great deal!”
When announcing the new department, President-elect Donald Trump said Mr Musk and Mr Ramaswamy “will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies”.
Mr Musk has previously made clear his desire to see cuts to “government waste” and in a post on his X platform suggested he could axe as many as three-quarters of the more than 400 federal departments in the US, writing: “99 is enough.”