Crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah Tank Farm in Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia, in 2018.
Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast by $10 to $100 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2022, citing rising Covid concerns in China and lack of clarity over the Group of Seven nations’ plan to cap Russian oil prices.
“The market is right to be anxious about forward fundamentals, due to significant Covid cases in China and a lack of clarity on the implementation of the G7’s price cap,” Goldman economists led by Jeffrey Currie said in a note, adding that more lockdowns in China would be equivalent to the deep production cuts imposed by OPEC+ of 2 million barrels a day.
China recorded recorded three Covid deaths over the weekend, the country’s first deaths from the virus since May this year.
China’s capital Beijing tightened Covid measures in the last three days as the local case count climbed to several hundred per day.
The economists added that the possibility of more lockdowns in the world’s top importer of oil will dent demand from it even further.
Crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah Tank Farm in Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in 2018. Crude prices fluctuated in recent months, rising to more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about a global recession, subsequently falling to around $90 per barrel after OPEC+ slashed production.
Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“China’s Covid cases are at Apr-22 highs, yet, the new policy reaction function is unknown … we lower our expectations for China demand by 1.2 [million barrels per day] for the quarter (to 14.0 mb/d), anticipating further lockdowns from here,” the note stated, adding that China’s current crude demand falls short of Goldman’s expectations for October to November by 800,000 barrels a day.
Investors ‘disappointed’
Crude prices fluctuated in recent months, rising to more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about a global recession, subsequently falling to around $90 per barrel after OPEC+ slashed production.
Both futures last hovered around two-month lows:Brent crude futures shed less than a dollar, or 0.9%, to stand at $86.83 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.09% to $79.21 per barrel.
Also contributing to Goldman’s downward revision are the higher than expected volumes of production and exports of oil from Russia, just two weeks before the EU embargo takes effect in early December.
“Investors have been left disappointed by higher than expected production and export flows from Russia. This is despite just two weeks remaining before the EU embargo takes effect on crude, alongside the G-7 price cap, for which more details are set to be announced next week,” the investment bank said in the note.
Lucid Group’s (LCID) stock is dropping on Wednesday after the company missed Q2 expectations. CEO Marc Winterhoff admitted during a new interview that the auto tariffs and the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit “keeps us up at night,” but promises things are looking up from here.
Lucid (LCID) CEO explains Q2 hurdles and future plans
Despite the reassurance, Lucid’s CEO admitted several things negatively impacted earnings. For one, its gross margin for the quarter was -105%, due to $54 million in extra costs from tariffs.
Lucid also lowered its production goal for the year from a firm 20,000 to between 18,000 and 20,000. The company stated that the updated range reflects the changing market.
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During an interview on Wednesday morning, Winterhoff told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau that changes in trade, tariffs, and tax credits are “something that, you know, keeps us up at night.”
Lucid posted revenue of $259.4 million, missing Wall Street’s estimates of around $280 million. It also reported a wider-than-expected net loss of $790 million, or a loss of $ 0.34 per share.
Lucid Gravity Grand Touring in Aurora Green (Source: Lucid)
Winterhoff told LeBeau that the biggest challenge Lucid faced in Q2 was tariffs, which had a bigger impact on gross margins than expected. However, it should work itself out throughout the remainder of the year, Lucid’s CEO added.
The other topic that many were wondering about was the availability of Earth magnets. Winterhoff explained that, unlike most of its competitors, Lucid was able to overcome the issue.
Lucid Gravity SUV with Nuro’s self-driving tech (Source: Lucid)
If it weren’t for Lucid’s quick actions, the company would have had to stop production in Q2. Instead, Winterhoff said that the company now has the raw materials, earth magnets, and licensing for the remainder of the year.
Lucid’s CEO added, “We are actually in a good place right now.” The company secured a partnership with Uber and Nuro to develop and deploy 20,000 robotaxis over the next six years. As part of the agreement, Uber is investing $300 million into Lucid.
Although it missed expectations, Lucid is still making progress. The EV maker is coming off its sixth straight quarter with record deliveries. It also produced a record number of vehicles in Q2.
After overcoming supply chain issues that limited Gravity output, Lucid said it’s on track to “significantly increase production” in the second half of the year.
Lucid delivery and production (Source: Lucid Group)
Lucid ended the quarter with $4.86 billion in total liquidity, which it expects will provide funding through the second half of 2026, when it plans to launch its midsize platform.
The midsize platform will have at least three “top hots,” or vehicles, including an electric SUV and Sedan. With prices expected to start at around $50,000, Lucid’s midsize EVs are expected to go head-to-head with the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.
Lucid Group (LCID) stock chart Q2 2024 through Q2 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Lucid Group’s (LCID) stock is down about 10% on Wednesday following Q2 earnings. Despite share prices surging after the Uber partnership last month, Lucid’s stock is still down nearly 30% over the past 12 months.
The company is planning a reverse stock split, which will be voted on at an upcoming investor meeting, to boost the share price and attract larger investors.
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Elon Musk is teasing a new Tesla ‘Full Self-Driving Supervised’ (FSD) update with “10x improvements”, but historical performance compared to Musk’s announcements suggests that it’s safer to manage your expectations.
In a new X post last night, Musk is teasing an upcoming new FSD update that will include a “10x increase in parameters”:
Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.
This is the second time that Musk is teasing an update to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program this year.
The version of FSD in consumer vehicles hasn’t improved all year, as Tesla has focused its efforts on its ‘Robotaxi’ service in Austin.
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After launching FSD v13 on HW4 vehicles late last year, the system has not shown meaningful improvement based on crowdsourced community data.
In fact, it appears to be deteriorating.
With 16,000 miles on the first 5 point updates on FSD v13, people were traveling on average 510 miles between critical disengagements (left), and now with the last 4 point updates, people are traveling 431 miles between critical disengagements (right):
Although the discrepancy could also be explained simply by the latest data being more accurate with more mileage.
Now, Tesla shareholders are hoping that the lag in improvement will be mitigated by Tesla using what it has learned through its deployment of its supervised robotaxi service in Austin to release a significantly improved FSD update.
In June, Musk first teased this update, and at the time, he said that it would include a “4x increase in parameters” and would come “in the next few months.”
Now, he seems to bonify the increase in parameters to “10x” and adjusts the timeline to the end of September.
However, before getting excited, it’s important to remember the last time Musk promised an increase in performance through an increase in parameters.
The CEO said that FSD v12.5 on HW4 was a “5x increase in parameters” and that was quite disappointing.
FSD v12.5 on HW4 (left) only brought a 22% increase in miles between critical disengagement compared to v12.3 (right):
In fact, the miles between critical disengagements plummeted with other v12.5 point updates, and it ultimately ended at 184 miles between critical disengagements, significantly below v12.3:
Therefore, it’s hard to get too excited about a new “10 increase in parameters” when that’s what happened the last time Musk called for it.
Electrek’s Take
Let’s be optimistic here and assume a 2x improvement in miles between critical disengagements from now on.
FSD on HW4 would still only be at about 900 miles between critical disengagements, which is nowhere near where you need to be for an unsupervised self-driving system.
At this improvement rate, Tesla would still need 5-10 years to get close to an unsupervised driving system and that’s while it is reaching the limits of its HW4 system. It’s becoming fairly clear that HW4 is going the way of HW3: obsolescence.
Tesla FSD would be impressive if it were sold as what it is: a level 3 driver assistance system. It’s best out there.
But it needs to be compared against what it is sold as: a self-driving system that will enable unsupervised autonomy.
In comparison to that, it’s terrible.
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Volkswagen is shaking things up with plans to trim its lineup. Volkswagen is killing off one of its oldest SUVs, but an electric vehicle is also in line to get the axe.
Volkswagen is retiring the Touareg and electric ID.5 SUVs
The Volkswagen Touareg has been on sale for over 24 years. First launched in 2022, the luxury SUV was developed in tandem with the Porsche Cayenne, sharing powertrain components and a similar design.
Next year, Volkswagen will retire it from its lineup. Company insiders confirmed to Autocar that Touareg production will end in 2026, leaving the Tayron as the largest Volkswagen SUV available in the UK.
Unlike several of its popular nameplates, including the Golf and Tiguan, the Touareg has no direct successor planned.
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However, that’s not the only vehicle Volkswagen is cutting from its lineup. The ID.5, Volkswagen’s electric coupe-SUV, is also getting the axe.
The ID.5 was just launched in 2021 as a sportier, more coupe-like alternative to the ID.4, but it has failed to live up to the hype. With the ID.4 overshadowing the coupe version, Volkswagen will cut it from its lineup starting in 2027.
Volkswagen ID.5 Pro (Source: Volkswagen)
The move comes as VW doubles down on more affordable, mass-market EVs like the upcoming ID.2 and ID.1. Volkswagen will launch the ID.2 next year, which could arrive as the ID.Polo, followed by an SUV version. In 2027, the production version of the ID.1 is scheduled to launch.
Volkswagen is also reportedly developing a “mini Buzz,” an electric MPV that will replace the Touran. Although nothing is official, the idea has been brought up in boardroom meetings.
Volkswagen ID.4 GTX and ID.5 GTX (Source: Volkswagen)
However, with Skoda considering a similar vehicle, sources close to the company’s CEO, Thomas Schäfer, say it’s not a priority right now. The source added, “We looked at it, but the market is demanding crossovers and SUV models.” That’s where Volkswagen is focusing next with a drastic overhaul to its ID series of electric vehicles, expected.
Although it had eight of the top ten best-selling EVs in Germany in the first half of 2025, VW has struggled to keep pace in global markets.
Will the new entry-level EV lineup help it turn things around? That’s what Volkswagen is betting on. We will see how it plays out over the next few months.
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