The military faces a cut of more than £2bn in its day-to-day budget in the year to March 2024 despite growing security threats, new calculations by Labour appear to show.
The potential drop in spending in real terms – when inflation is taken into account – was compared with the £33bn allocated to defence running costs – such as salaries, training and fuel – in the 12 months to March 2022, the opposition’s defence team said.
John Healey, the shadow defence secretary, said Rishi Sunak’s government had failed to commit to any new funding for defence in the autumn statement delivered last week.
“That means less money for forces pay, recruitment and training,” he told Sky News.
But a defence source signalled that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt had provided an assurance that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would receive help to protect its budget from inflation – though the source did not offer a specific figure.
“The chancellor has committed to provide sufficient funding and exceptional budgetary flexibilities to meet defence’s external pressures in 2023-2024 so that core defence spending will be at least flat in real terms,” the defence source said.
“The chancellor and prime minister acknowledge defence spending will then need to rise and we will look at that in the Integrated Review refresh.”
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The comments appear to indicate that the MoD is expecting to draw on reserves held by the Treasury to bolster its budget – otherwise it will shrink in real terms.
Using official figures provided by the House of Commons library, Labour studied a four-year settlement for defence, from 2021, agreed when Boris Johnson was prime minister as part of a sweeping Integrated Review of defence, security and foreign policy.
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The data put the amount of the defence budget spent on resources – known as resource departmental expenditure limit (RDEL) – at £33.3bn in the year to March 2022, based on November inflation forecasts. This was signalled to drop to £32.1bn in the year to March 2023, fall again to £31.2bn in the year to March 2024 and once more to £31bn in the year to March 2025.
Image: Shadow defence secretary John Healey
The Sunak government is reviewing Mr Johnson’s Integrated Review in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, had said this refresh would be completed by December. But, in his autumn statement, Mr Hunt indicated that it might not be until next year.
“The prime minister and I both recognise the need to increase defence spending. But before we make that commitment it is necessary to revise and update the Integrated Review,” the chancellor told MPs last Thursday.
“I have asked for that vital work to be completed ahead of the next budget and today confirm we will continue to maintain the defence budget at least 2% of GDP to be consistent with our NATO commitment.”
Mr Sunak has declined to offer any new target on defence spending.
By contrast, Liz Truss, his short-lived predecessor, pledged to lift defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade.
Syria has carried out pre-emptive operations targeting Islamic State cells – arresting 71 people during 61 raids.
Explosives and weapons were seized, with the interior ministry revealing they were working on “precise” intelligence information.
“Many” of those detained were wanted criminals, with forces obtaining evidence that linked them to terrorist activities.
A statement added that the operation was part of “ongoing national efforts to combat terrorism and confront plots targeting the country’s security and citizens”.
The raids come as Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa travels to Washington for a meeting with Donald Trump, where he will join a coalition against IS.
Meanwhile, the US is preparing to establish a military presence in Damascus to enable a security pact that is being brokered between Syria and Israel.
According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, officials intercepted information that suggested Islamic State was planning to launch new attacks.
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Interior ministry spokesman Nour al Din al Baba told al Ekhbariya: “The current major threat lies in IS’ attempts to reconstitute itself and recruit new members, particularly among the youth.”
Since then, al Sharaa’s transitional administration has been attempting to restore security, introduce economic reforms, and cooperate with international partners.
On Friday, the UK and US removed sanctions against al Sharaa – following in the footsteps of the UN Security Council.
The State Department said this was “in recognition of the progress demonstrated by the Syrian leadership”, including work to counter narcotics and eliminate chemical weapons.
Al Sharaa had faced a travel ban, asset freeze and an arms embargo for well over a decade because he was previously affiliated with al Qaeda.
Israeli troops in Gaza have received the remains of another hostage.
They have now been taken to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine to be examined.
If it is confirmed that they belong to a hostage, this would mean there are five bodies left to be returned under the terms of a ceasefire that began on 10 October.
Israel has also released the bodies of 285 Palestinians – but this identification process is harder because DNA labs are not allowed in Gaza.
Last night’s transfer is a sign of progress in the fragile truce, but some of the remains handed over in recent weeks have not belonged to any of the missing hostages.
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October: Heavy machinery enters Gaza to clear rubble
At times, Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement – however, US President Donald Trump has previously acknowledged conditions on the ground in Gaza are difficult.
Meanwhile, UN officials have warned the levels of humanitarian aid flowing into the territory fall well short of what Palestinians require.
Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haqq said more than 200,000 metric tons of aid is positioned to move in – but only 37,000 tons has arrived so far.
Earlier on Friday, hundreds of mourners attended the military funeral of an Israeli-American soldier whose body was returned on Sunday.
Image: Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP
Captain Omer Neutra was 21 when he was killed by Hamas militants who then took his body into Gaza following the October 7th attacks.
Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads up US Central Command, said during the service: “He is the son of two nations.
“He embodied the best of both the United States and Israel. Uniquely, he has firmly cemented his place in history as the hero of two countries.”
His mother Orna addressed her son’s coffin – and said: “We are all left with the vast space between who you were to us and to the world in your life and what you were yet to become. And with the mission to fill that gap with the light and goodness that you are.”
Image: IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP
In other developments, Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other Israeli officials on charges of carrying out “genocide” in Gaza.
They have been accused of crimes against humanity – but the move is highly symbolic since these officials were unlikely to enter Turkey.
Foreign minister Gideon Saar dismissed the warrants, and said: “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdogan.”
In Soviet times, Western observers would scrutinise video footage of state occasions, like military parades on Red Square, to try to learn more about Kremlin hierarchy.
Who was positioned closest to the leader? What did the body language say? Which officials were in and out of favour?
In some ways, not much has changed.
The footage present-day Kremlinologists are currently pouring over is from Wednesday’s landmark meeting of Russia’s Security Council, in which Vladimir Putin told his top officials to start drafting proposals for a possible nuclear weapons test.
It was an important moment. Not one you’d expect a trusted lieutenant to miss. But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, was conspicuously absent – the only permanent member of the Council not present.
According to the Russian business daily, Kommersant, his absence was “coordinated”.
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Image: US President Donald Trump meets with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP
Image: Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP
That episode alone would have been enough to raise eyebrows.
But coupled with the selection of a more junior official to lead the Russian delegation at the upcoming G20 summit (a role Lavrov has filled in recent years) – well, that’s when questions get asked, namely: Has Moscow’s top diplomat been sidelined?
The question has grown loud enough to force the Kremlin into a denial, but it’s done little to quell speculation that Lavrov has fallen out of favour.
Image: Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters
Rumours of a rift have been mounting since Donald Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest last month, following a phone call between Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
According to the Financial Times, it was Lavrov’s uncompromising stance that prompted the White House to put the summit on ice.
Conversations I had with diplomatic sources here at the time revealed a belief that Lavrov had either dropped the ball or gone off-script. Whether it was by accident or by design, his diplomacy (or lack of it) torpedoed the summit and seemingly set back a US-Russia rapprochement.
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September: Anyone downing aircraft in Russian airspace will ‘regret it’
That would’ve angered Putin, who is keen to engage with Washington, not only on Ukraine but on other issues, like nuclear arms control.
More importantly, perhaps, it made the Russian president appear weak – unable to control his foreign minister. And Putin is not a man who likes to be undermined.
Football fans will be familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson’s golden rule of management: Never let a player grow bigger than the club. Putin operates in a similar fashion. Loyalty is valued extremely highly.
Image: Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters
Image: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP
Image: Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters
If Lavrov has indeed been sidelined, it would be a very significant moment indeed. The 75-year-old has been the face of Russian diplomacy for more than two decades and effectively Putin’s right-hand man for most of the Kremlin leader’s rule.
Known for his abrasive style and acerbic putdowns, Lavrov has also been a vociferous cheerleader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And in the melee that immediately followed the presidents’ press statements at the summit, I remember racing over to Lavrov as he was leaving and yelling a question to him through the line of security guards.
He didn’t even turn. Instead, he just shouted back: “Who are you?”
It was typical of a diplomatic heavyweight, who’s known for not pulling his punches. But has that uncompromising approach finally taken its toll?