The military faces a cut of more than £2bn in its day-to-day budget in the year to March 2024 despite growing security threats, new calculations by Labour appear to show.
The potential drop in spending in real terms – when inflation is taken into account – was compared with the £33bn allocated to defence running costs – such as salaries, training and fuel – in the 12 months to March 2022, the opposition’s defence team said.
John Healey, the shadow defence secretary, said Rishi Sunak’s government had failed to commit to any new funding for defence in the autumn statement delivered last week.
“That means less money for forces pay, recruitment and training,” he told Sky News.
But a defence source signalled that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt had provided an assurance that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would receive help to protect its budget from inflation – though the source did not offer a specific figure.
“The chancellor has committed to provide sufficient funding and exceptional budgetary flexibilities to meet defence’s external pressures in 2023-2024 so that core defence spending will be at least flat in real terms,” the defence source said.
“The chancellor and prime minister acknowledge defence spending will then need to rise and we will look at that in the Integrated Review refresh.”
More on Defence
Related Topics:
The comments appear to indicate that the MoD is expecting to draw on reserves held by the Treasury to bolster its budget – otherwise it will shrink in real terms.
Using official figures provided by the House of Commons library, Labour studied a four-year settlement for defence, from 2021, agreed when Boris Johnson was prime minister as part of a sweeping Integrated Review of defence, security and foreign policy.
Advertisement
The data put the amount of the defence budget spent on resources – known as resource departmental expenditure limit (RDEL) – at £33.3bn in the year to March 2022, based on November inflation forecasts. This was signalled to drop to £32.1bn in the year to March 2023, fall again to £31.2bn in the year to March 2024 and once more to £31bn in the year to March 2025.
Image: Shadow defence secretary John Healey
The Sunak government is reviewing Mr Johnson’s Integrated Review in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, had said this refresh would be completed by December. But, in his autumn statement, Mr Hunt indicated that it might not be until next year.
“The prime minister and I both recognise the need to increase defence spending. But before we make that commitment it is necessary to revise and update the Integrated Review,” the chancellor told MPs last Thursday.
“I have asked for that vital work to be completed ahead of the next budget and today confirm we will continue to maintain the defence budget at least 2% of GDP to be consistent with our NATO commitment.”
Mr Sunak has declined to offer any new target on defence spending.
By contrast, Liz Truss, his short-lived predecessor, pledged to lift defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade.
The stamp of boots, the rumble of the tanks and the roar of the jet engines literally reverberated through the stand where we were sitting.
“We serve the people” came the cries when called on; the passion, of course, had been practised, but it felt authentic too.
The security to get here spoke volumes about just how tightly controlled this whole event has been.
Our meet time, dictated by the Chinese government, was over seven hours before the start of the parade itself, bussed in at the dead of night, no fewer than three separate rigorous security scans.
But once onto Beijing’s historic Tiananmen Square, we were free to film in places that are normally strictly off limits.
And that is because today, nothing less than Chinaitself, in all its prowess, is on show.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:49
Xi: ‘We can avoid repetition of tragedy’
A projection of power
While this parade is officially to mark 80 years since the official surrender of Japan in the Second World War, it is about so much more than that.
It is about the projection of power, both internally and around the world, too.
To the domestic audience, it is about showing just how far China has come since the war.
From a country invaded and ‘humiliated’ by Japan, to a global superpower, all thanks, they say, to the Chinese Communist Party and the vision of President Xi.
It is notable that even in official communications to the foreign media, the objective of “demonstrating loyalty to the party” was listed as a more important motivation than “commemorating” victory in the war and the sacrifices of the Chinese people.
But be in no doubt, they know the world is watching too, and this was also about projecting power internationally.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Close company
That is largely about the military might, of course, the huge array of Chinese-produced, cutting-edge new weaponry was notable. So is the fact that Xi’s reorganisation and modernisation of the military has been a key theme.
But the messaging was also about the power of China’s allegiances and its political heft too.
Indeed, today was especially notable not just for what was on show, but also for who was here.
No accident at all that Xi Jinping was continually staged with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on his right and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to his left.
Image: Pic: Reuters
There has been speculation that the recent blossoming alliance between Putin and Kim has irked China somewhat. No sign of that today, the signals were all that this is a trio in lockstep.
Indeed, Kim rarely leaves his hermit kingdom, and he has never been to a multilateral event as big as this. His presence speaks volumes about his confidence in this company.
All of this comes after four days of intense diplomacy here, where China has hosted leaders from across the world in an attempt to cast itself as a great convener of nations and a preserver of a peaceful global order.
It’s a message perhaps a little undermined when stood before such a show of military might, with one leader wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and another sanctioned by much of the world for its accumulation of nuclear weapons.
But perhaps to many, disillusioned with America, this simply doesn’t matter, and that is the gap Xi is successfully exploiting.
Not everyone will be buying in, but this was in some ways a vision for a future Xi would like to see, and it is a vision that’s centred on Chinese power.
Xi Jinping hailed the “great regeneration of China” as he hosted Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un for Beijing’s biggest ever military parade.
The three leaders, who have been labelled the “axis of upheaval”, watched on as troops, tanks, and other military hardware put on a show of force in the Chinese capital.
After being flanked by his Russian and North Korean counterparts as they emerged together at the start of the ceremony, Mr Xi paid tribute to his country’s soldiers who fought “the Japanese invaders” during World War Two.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:05
Xi, Putin, and Kim walk out for parade
Xi: We will defend our sovereignty
The parade marked the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat, which brought the conflict to an end.
“It is an important part of our history, and we made our contribution to saving the people, defending peace, and ensuring victory,” Mr Xi said.
He called on countries to “look after each other” to “avoid the repetition of tragedy”, before declaring China would “accelerate our development and defend our national integrity and sovereignty”.
Mr Putin and Mr Kim represent two of the Chinese president’s closest allies, with both leaning heavily on Beijing for trade – the former especially reliant since being ostracised by the West over the war in Ukraine.
Image: Tens of thousands of troops took part in the parade. Pic: Reuters
Trump sends a message
Donald Trump’s attempts to smooth over US-Russia relations, and bring an end to that conflict, have so far not achieved anything significant.
Posting on Truth Social as soldiers marched through Tiananmen Square, the US president suggested China and its allies were conspiring against Washington.
“May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration,” he said.
“Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:41
‘China needs us more than we need them’
For Mr Xi, the parade was a chance not just to commemorate its role in World War Two, but to showcase itself as a significant alternative to a postwar world order dominated by the US.
Mr Trump’s isolationist foreign policy, including cuts to overseas aid, has – according to his critics – given China a tantalising opportunity to flex its muscle.
Concerns remain about whether Beijing may one day make a move on Taiwan, while other nations – notably India – become more drawn into its trade orbit due to Mr Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
The parade came after an economic summit in Beijing, with Indian PM Narendra Modi among the attendees.
Image: Hardware including tanks and fighter jets were on show. Pic: Reuters
China could pose ‘huge threat’ to US
Philip Shetler-Jones, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Sky News that China’s impressive military – if allied with Russia’s – could “pose a huge threat to American forces” in the Pacific.
“In Japan particularly, people are quite mindful there are joint exercises between Chinese and Russian forces using nuclear-capable bombers, ships, and more recently submarines,” he said.
“I think the intention is to imply that if it came to full-scale conflict involving the US, then China would expect to have collaboration with Russia – and perhaps North Korea as well.”
The alleged GPS jamming of a plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen by Russia raises concerns about air travel – but were there politics at play?
Jamming can overwhelm an aircraft’s GPS navigation systems, preventing them from working properly, leaving pilots to rely on other ways of finding out where they are.
The EU said there was GPS jamming but the plane was able to land safely, adding: “We have received information from Bulgarian authorities that they suspect this blatant interference was carried out by Russia.”
But the timing of the allegation of GPS jamming – something reported to be routine along the Russian border – days before a crucial meeting of European leaders to discuss peacekeeping troops for Ukraine raises the question of why now?
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:37
Explained: How GPS jamming works
Sky News has spoken to a pilot who was flying in the same area as Ms von der Leyen on Sunday, as well as a security expert with extensive knowledge of electronic warfare, to try and work out what happened.
What is GPS jamming?
More on Russia
Related Topics:
GPS interference has become a known and widespread issue affecting aircraft over Europe in recent years, particularly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
Experts generally point the finger at Russia, saying that Moscow uses GPS interference to defend against Ukrainian drones but maybe also to cause a nuisance for the West.
Jamming can overwhelm an aircraft’s GPS navigation systems, preventing them from working properly, leaving pilots to rely on other ways of finding out where they are.
Image: A plane transporting Ursula von der Leyen and her staff on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
What happened to Ursula von der Leyen?
According to the Financial Times, the ‘attack’ disabled GPS navigation services at Plovdiv airport in Bulgaria on Sunday afternoon.
The aircraft was deprived of electronic navigational aids as it approached, the newspaper said. It circled the airport for an hour before the pilot decided to manually land the plane, apparently using paper maps.
The area is near a known hotspot for GPS interference and blame was quickly levelled at Russia – a claim that Moscow denied. Russia has denied other instances of GPS jamming in the past.
NATO chief Mark Rutte said the alliance takes the jamming of GPS signals “very seriously” and is working “day and night” to prevent that jamming, to ensure “they will not do it again”.
Follow the World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Pilot: Airport is in a known GPS interference area
Sean Fitzpatrick is an experienced pilot who regularly flies through areas known for GPS interference. Indeed, he flew within 40 miles of Plovdiv airport on the same day as Ms Von der Leyen.
He told Sky News: “That airport is in a known GPS interference area. Anyone flying in there would know that there’s a high probability of having GPS issues.”
While GPS jamming is a nuisance, pilots essentially turn off GPS receivers and rely on other aids like the instrument landing system, Sean said.
He added: “When I heard they were pulling out paper charts (to navigate) I’m like, why didn’t they just have an iPad?”
Given that GPS jamming of flights near the Russian border is reported to be routine, Sean was asked if the choice to reveal this particular alleged incident to the media – so close to the coalition of the willing summit this week – was political.
“Based on the information I have, that’s what it looks like… Based on what I’ve seen and the information that’s available to the public and what I know as a professional… I think there’s a bit of politics and sensationalism.”
Image: A map of GPS interference levels detected over Europe earlier this year. Credit: GPSjam.org
‘We can make your life difficult’
Dr Thomas Withington, an expert on electronic warfare at the RUSI thinktank, agreed that there could be political angles to what happened.
“I think it’s quite hard to say with any degree of certainty whether her aircraft was deliberately targeted,” he told Sky News, noting that jamming signals are often sent out over a wide area. “But I’m sure that for Mr Putin it’s a very happy coincidence.”
He added: “Politically, what you’re saying is ‘we’re here, we can make your life difficult’.”
He also spoke about the wider impact of GPS jamming – and the possible dangers.
“I think it is important that the news went out there, because I think it indicates that Russia is an irresponsible actor, and these actions are grossly irresponsible, because you’re attempting to create a danger to international air travel, and there is simply no justification for that.”
He referenced the Azerbaijan Airlines flight in December, which was reportedly GPS jammed before it was mistakenly shot down by Russian air defences, killing 38 people.
“If those (Russian) actions cause loss of life, particularly in a NATO nation, I think it should be made very clear that a military response would be considered for that.”