How AMD became a chip giant and leapfrogged Intel after years of playing catch-up
Advanced Micro Devices made history this year when it surpassed Intel by market cap for the first time ever. Intel has long held the lead in the market for computer processors, but AMD’s ascent results from the company branching out into entirely new sectors.
In one of the biggest semiconductor acquisitions in history, AMD purchased adaptive chip company Xilinx in February for $49 billion. Now, AMD chips are in two Tesla models, NASA’s Mars Perseverance land rover, 5G cell towers and the world’s fastest supercomputer.
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“AMD is beating Intel on all the metrics that matter, and until and unless Intel can fix its manufacturing, find some new way to manufacture things, they will continue to do that,” said Jay Goldberg, semiconductor consultant at D2D Advisory.
But a decade ago, analysts had a very different outlook for AMD.
“It was almost a joke, right? Because for decades they had these incredible performance problems,” Goldberg said. “And that’s changed.”
CNBC sat down with AMD CEO Lisa Su to hear about her company’s remarkable comeback, and huge bets on new types of chips in the face of a PC slump, fresh restrictions on exports to China and shifting industry trends.
‘Real men have fabs’
AMD was founded in 1969 by eight men, chief among them Jerry Sanders. The famously colorful marketing executive had recently left Fairchild Semiconductor, which shares credit for the invention of the integrated circuit.
“He was one of the best salesmen that Silicon Valley had ever seen,” said Stacy Rasgon, semiconductor analyst at Bernstein Research. “Stories of lavish parties that they would throw. And there’s one story about him and his wife coming down the stairs of the turret at the party in matching fur coats.”
AMD Co-Founder Jerry Sanders poses at the original headquarters of Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, in Sunnyvale, California, in 1969
AMD
He also coined an infamous phrase about chip fabrication plants, or fabs.
“Jerry Sanders was very famous for saying, ‘Real men have fabs,’ which obviously is a comment that is problematic on a number of levels and has largely been disproven by history,” Goldberg said.
As technology advances, making chips has become prohibitively expensive. It now takes billions of dollars and several years to build a fab. AMD now designs and tests chips and has no fabs.
“When you think about what do you need to do to be world class and design, it’s a certain set of skills,” Su said. “And then what do you need to do to be world class In manufacturing? It’s a different set of skills and the business model is different, the capital model is different.”
Back in the ’70s, AMD was pumping out computer chips. By the ’80s, it was a second-source supplier for Intel. After AMD and Intel parted ways, AMD reverse engineered Intel’s chips to make its own products that were compatible with Intel’s groundbreaking x86 software. Intel sued AMD, but a settlement in 1995 gave AMD the right to continue designing x86 chips, making personal computer pricing more competitive for end consumers.
In 2006, AMD bought major fabless chip company ATI for $5.4 billion. Then in 2009, AMD broke off its manufacturing arm altogether, forming GlobalFoundries.
“That’s when their execution really started to take off because they no longer had to worry about the foundry side of things,” Goldberg said.
GlobalFoundries went public in 2021 and remains a top maker of the less advanced chips found in simpler components like a car’s anti-lock brakes or heads-up display. But it stopped making leading-edge chips in 2018. For those, AMD turned to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which now makes all of AMD’s most advanced chips.
Catching Intel
AMD only has major competition from two other companies when it comes to designing the most advanced microprocessors: Nvidia in graphics processing units, GPUs, and Intel in central processing units, CPUs.
While AMD controls far less GPU and CPU market share than Nvidia and Intel, respectively, it’s made remarkable strides since moving away from manufacturing and reducing capital expenditure.
Meanwhile, Intel doubled down on manufacturing last year, committing $20 billion for new fabs in Arizona and up to $100 billion in Ohio, for what it says will be the world’s largest chip-making complex. But the projects are still years away from coming online.
“Intel is just not moving forward fast enough,” Goldberg said. “They’ve said they expect to continue to lose share in next year and I think we’ll see that on the client side. And that’s helped out AMD tremendously on the data center side.”
AMD’s Zen line of CPUs, first released in 2017, is often seen as the key to the company’s recent success. Su told CNBC it’s her favorite product. It’s also what analysts say saved AMD from near bankruptcy.
“They were like literally, like probably six months away from the edge and somehow they pulled out of it,” Rasgon said. “They have this Hail Mary on this new product design that they’re still selling like later generations of today, they call it Zen is their name for it. And it worked. It had a massively improved performance and enabled them to stem the share losses and ultimately turn them around.”
AMD CEO Lisa Su shows the newly released Genoa CPU, the company’s 4th generation EPYC processor, to CNBC’s Katie Tarasov at AMD’s headquarters in Santa Clara, California, on November 8, 2022
Jeniece Pettitt
Among the Zen products, AMD’s EPYC family of CPUs made monumental leaps on the data center side. Its latest, Genoa, was released earlier this month. AMD’s data center customers include Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, Oracle, IBM and Microsoft Azure.
“If you looked at our business five years ago, we were probably more than 80% – 90% in the consumer markets and very PC-centric and gaming-centric,” Su said. “As I thought about what we wanted for the strategy of the company, we believed that for high-performance computing, really the data center was the most strategic piece of the business.”
AMD’s revenue more than tripled between 2017 and 2021, growing from $5.3 billion to over $16 billion. Intel’s annual revenue over that stretched, meanwhile, increased about 25% from close to $63 billion in 2017 to $79 billion last year.
Geopolitical concerns and PC slump
AMD’s success at catching up to Intel’s technological advances is something many attribute to Su, who took over as CEO in 2014. AMD has more than tripled its employee count since then. Su was Fortune’s #2 Business Person of the Year in 2020 and the recipient of three of the semiconductor industry’s top honors. She also serves on President Joe Biden’s Council of Advisors on Science on Technology, which pushed hard for the recent passage of the CHIPS Act. It sets aside $52 billion for U.S. companies to manufacture chips domestically instead of overseas.
“It’s a recognition of just how important semiconductors are to both economic prosperity as well as national security in the United States,” Su said.
With all the world’s most advanced semiconductors currently made in Asia, the chip shortage highlighted the problems of overseas dependency, especially amid continued tension between China and Taiwan. Now, TSMC is building a $12 billion 5-nanometer chip fab outside Phoenix.
“We’re pleased with the expansion in Arizona,” Su said. “We think that’s a great thing and we’d like to see it expand even more.”
Earlier this month, the Biden administration enacted big new bans on semiconductor exports to China. AMD has about 3,000 employees in China and 25% of its sales were to China last year. But Su says the revenue impact has been “very small.”
“When we look at the most recent regulations, they’re not significantly impacting our business,” Su said. “It does affect some of our highest-end chips that are used in sort of AI applications. And we were not selling those into China.”
What is hurting AMD’s revenue, at least for now, is the PC slump. In its third-quarter earnings report earlier this month, AMD missed expectations, shortly after Intel warned of a soft fourth quarter. PC shipments were down nearly 20% in the third quarter, the steepest decline in more than 20 years.
“It’s down a bit more than perhaps we expected,” Su said. “There is a cycle of correction which happens from time to time, but we’re very focused on the long-term road map.”
Going custom
It’s not just PC sales that are slowing. The very core of computer chip technology advancement is changing. An industry rule called Moore’s Law has long dictated that the number of resistors on a chip should double about every two years.
“The process that we call Moore’s Law still has at least another decade to go, but there’s definitely, it’s slowing down,” Goldberg said. “Everybody sort of used CPUs for everything, general purpose compute, but that’s all slowed down. And so now it suddenly makes sense to do more customized solutions.”
Former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng and AMD CEO Lisa Su on stage in Munich, Germany, at the
AMD
That’s why AMD acquired Xilinx, known for its adaptive chips called Field-Programmable Gate Arrays, or FPGAs. Earlier this year, AMD also bought cloud startup Pensando for $1.9 billion.
“We can quibble about some of the prices they paid for some of these things and what the returns will look like,” said Goldberg, adding that the acquisitions were ultimately a good decision. “They’re building a custom compute business to help their customers design their own chips. I think that’s a very, it’s a smart strategy.”
More and more big companies are designing their own custom chips. Amazon has its own Graviton processors for AWS. Google designs its own AI chips for the Pixel phone and a specific video chip for YouTube. Even John Deere is coming out with its own chips for autonomous tractors.
“If you really look underneath what’s happening in the chip industry over the last five years, everybody needs more chips and you see them everywhere, right?” Su said. “Particularly the growth of the cloud has been such a key trend over the last five years. And what that means is when you have very high volume growth in chips, you do want to do more customization.”
Even basic chip architecture is at a transition point. AMD and Intel chips are based on the five-decade-old x86 architecture. Now ARM architecture chips are growing in popularity, with companies like Nvidia and Ampere making major promises about developing Arm CPUs, and Apple switching from Intel to self-designed ARM processors.
“My view is it’s really not a debate between x86 and Arm,” Su said. “You’re going to see basically, these two are the most important architectures out there in the market. And what we’ve seen is it’s really about what you do with the compute.”
For now, analysts say AMD is in a strong position as it diversifies alongside its core business of x86 computing chips.
“AMD should fare much better in 2023 as we come out of the cycle, as their performance gains versus Intel start to become apparent, and as they start to build out on some of these new businesses,” Goldberg said.
Intel did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Correction: “And we were not selling those into China,” said Lisa Su, AMD’s CEO. Her quote has been updated to reflect a typo that appeared in an earlier version of this article.
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks about the Facebook News feature at the Paley Center For Media in New York on Oct. 25, 2019.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Mark Zuckerberg‘s net worth plunged by $18 billion Thursday after comments from the Meta CEO on the earnings call sent his company’s stock price to its steepest decline since October 2022.
Meta beat expectations on revenue and profit but delivered a lighter-than-expected revenue forecast. Zuckerberg told investors that the company would continue to spend billions of dollars investing in areas like artificial intelligence and the metaverse, even though Meta counts on advertising for 98% of its revenue.
“We’ve historically seen a lot of volatility in our stock during this phase of our product playbook where we’re investing in scaling a new product but aren’t yet monetizing it,” Zuckerberg said on the call.
Zuckerberg owns around 345 million Class A and B shares. With the stock falling by $52.12 on Thursday, the value of his stake sank by about $18 billion to $152 billion by the close of trading.
The 39-year-old programmer founded the company in his Harvard dorm room in 2004, and rebranded it from Facebook to Meta in 2021, signaling to investors his plan to focus on the non-existent metaverse.
Meta’s Reality Labs division, which houses the hardware and software for developing the metaverse, has posted cumulative losses of $45 billion since 2020, when the company first separated the unit in its financials.
Meta said it plans to spend $35 billion to $40 billion Meta on capital expenditures this year, an increase from its prior forecast.
Zuckerberg’s fortune has swung up and down through the years, as his company’s stock has been particularly volatile. His net worth fell by around $100 billion in 2022. In early 2023, he announced Meta would embark on a “year of efficiency,” a move that helped the stock price triple for the year, and bringing Zuckerberg’s net worth up with it.
Thursday wasn’t the worst day for Zuckerberg’s bank account. In early 2022, he lost almost $30 billion in a single day, when his company’s stock price tumbled 26% on weak earnings and disappointing guidance.
Snap reported first-quarter results on Thursday that beat analysts’ estimates and showed a return to double-digit revenue growth. Shares soared more than 25% in extended trading.
Here’s how the company did:
- Earnings per share: 3 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 5 cents expected by LSEG
- Revenue: $1.19 billion vs. $1.12 billion expected by LSEG
- Global daily active users: 422 million vs. 420 million expected, according to StreetAccount
- Average revenue per user: $2.83 vs. $2.67 expected, according to StreetAccount
Revenue for Snap’s first quarter increased 21% from $989 million in the same period last year. The company is growing at an accelerated clip, after it had previously reported six straight quarters of single-digit growth or sales declines.
Snap has been working to rebuild its ad business after the digital ad market stumbled in 2022, and it’s starting to pay off. In its investor letter, Snap said its revenue growth was primarily driven by improvements in the company’s advertising platform, as well as demand for its direct-response advertising solutions.
Advertising revenue came in at $1.11 billion in the first quarter. Snap’s “Other Revenue” category, which is primarily driven by Snapchat+ subscribers, reached $87 million, an increase of 194% year over year. Snap reported more than 9 million Snapchat+ subscribers for the period.
Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $46 million, far surpassing the $68 million loss expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount. In its investor letter, Snap said adjusted EBITDA “exceeded our expectations” and was primarily driven by operating expense discipline, as well as accelerating revenue growth.
“Given the progress we have made with our ad platform, the leadership team we have built, and the strategic priorities we have set, we believe we are well positioned to continue to improve our business performance,” Snap wrote in the letter.
Though Snap’s growth accelerated, it still fell behind that of Meta, which reported 27% growth in its better-than-expected first-quarter results on Wednesday. Meta shares plunged anyway after the company issued a light forecast and spooked investors with talk of its long-term investments.
Snap’s net loss for the quarter narrowed to $305.1 million, or a 19 cent loss per share, from $328.7 million, or a 21 cent loss per share, the year prior.
For its second quarter, Snap expects to report revenue between $1.23 billion and $1.26 billion, up from the $1.22 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount. Snap said adjusted EBITDA will fall between $15 million and $45 million, compared to Wall Street’s expectations of $15.5 million.
Snap reported 422 million daily active users (DAUs) in the first quarter, up 10% year over year. The company expects to report around 431 million DAUs in its second quarter, up from the 430 million expected by StreetAccount.
The company also provided a forecast for its full-year 2024 cost structure. Snap said quarterly infrastructure costs per DAU will fall between 83 cents and 85 cents for the rest of the year.
“We will continue to assess our infrastructure investment levels based on what is in the best long-term interest of our business,” Snap said.
Snap said the amount of time users spent watching content grew year over year, primarily due to engagement with Spotlight and Creator Stories. The company said time spent watching Spotlight, which aggregates content from users, increased 125% year over year.
In February, Snap announced it would lay off 10% of its global workforce, or around 500 employees. The company said Thursday that headcount and personnel costs will “grow modestly” through the rest of the year.
Snap will hold its quarterly call with investors at 5:30 p.m. ET Thursday.
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