The UK economy is to suffer the biggest hit of all the G7 nations next year, a report has forecast.
The economy is to contract more than any of the other six countries that form the group of the world’s largest industrialised democracies, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
GDP, a measure of economic output, is to reduce 0.4% next year and grow 0.2% in 2024. This is better than previous OECD predictions which has been for the economy to remain static.
The only other G7 economy to contract next year is Germany‘s. which will experience a smaller contraction of 0.3%.
Growth will be small in the majority of the G7 nations. Italy’s GDP will grow 0.2%, the US will see 0.5%, France will experience 0.6% while Canada and Japan will see rises of 1% and 1.8% respectively.
Of the G20 countries the UK economy will perform the third worst, behind Russia and Sweden with 5.6% and 0.6% contractions respectively expected.
The government’s energy price guarantee scheme will increase inflation, requiring hiked interest rates which will result in higher borrowing costs, the organisation said in its economic outlook report,
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The untargeted nature of the scheme is the problem, the report said. Under the scheme, all domestic electricity users are to be paid £400 to reduce the impact of sky-high energy costs.
More targeted measures, directed to those most in need, would lower the overall cost to the state, and better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation, the OECD said.
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Inflation forecasts
The rate of inflation rose to 10.1% in September, according to official figures, due to rising prices and the fallout from the mini-budget.
Numerous economic forecasts are echoed by the OECD, which said risks to the UK economy are considerable and “tilted towards the downside”.
Inflation will peak at around 10% late this year due to high energy prices and continuing labour and goods supply shortages, before gradually declining to 2.7% by the end of 2024, the report said.
Consumption is expected to slow due to the cost of living crisis, but this will be lessened by a planned 9.7% increase in the minimum wage and the usual uprating of welfare benefits and pensions in April next year.
There was a caveat attached, as the report said higher-than-expected goods and energy prices could weigh on consumption and further depress growth.
Equally a prolonged period of labour shortages could force businesses into a more permanent reduction of operating capacity or push up wage inflation up.
Energy reduction and net zero
While the OECD said financial support measures are needed to help with high energy prices, there should also be incentives for energy reduction.
The government also came in for criticism over its action to reach net-zero emissions.
The policies in place are “not yet sufficient” to reach net-zero target, the report said. Accelerating progress towards net-zero is fundamental to enhance the UK’s energy security and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, the report added.
More investment can be driven by the government “being clearer about its approach to the transition to a net-zero economy and developing an economy-wide plan with specific deadlines, policies and priorities”.
Martin Lewis says motorists who were mis-sold car finance are likely to receive “hundreds, not thousands of pounds” – with regulators launching a consultation on a new compensation scheme.
The founder of MoneySavingExpert.com believes it is “very likely” that about 40% of Britons who entered personal contact purchase or hire purchase agreements between 2007 and 2021 will be eligible for payouts.
“Discretionary commission arrangements” saw brokers and dealers charge higher levels of interest so they could receive more commission, without telling consumers.
Image: Pics: PA
Speaking to Sky News Radio’s Faye Rowlands, Lewis said: “Very rarely will it be thousands of pounds unless you have more than one car finance deal.
“So up to about a maximum of £950 per car finance deal where you are due compensation.”
Lewis explained that consumers who believe they may have been affected should check whether they had a discretionary commission arrangement by writing to their car finance company.
However, the personal finance guru warned against using a claims firm.
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“They’re hardly going to do anything for you and you might get the money paid to you automatically anyway, in which case you’re giving them 30% for nothing,” he added.
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Who’s eligible for payout after car finance scandal?
Yesterday, the Financial Conduct Authority said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.
The FCA’s statement added that those affected “should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way”.
Lewis told Sky News that the consultation will launch in October – and will take six weeks.
“We expect payouts to come in 2026, assuming this will happen and it’s very likely to happen,” he said.
“As for exactly how will work, it hasn’t decided yet. Firms will have to contact people, although there is an issue about them having destroyed some of the data for older claims.”
He believes claims will either be paid automatically – or affected consumers will need to opt in and apply to get compensation back.
The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.
Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.
The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now”.
Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.
If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.
Any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.
The FCA has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.
The FCA estimates the cost of any scheme – including compensation and administrative costs – to be no lower than £9bn.
But in a video on X, Lewis said that millions of people are likely to be due a share of up to £18bn.
The regulator’s announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.
Image: Waves break on the sea front in Blackpool. File pic: PA
A wider yellow warning – covering the North of England and Northern Ireland – is also active between 6am this morning and 11.59pm tonight.
Train operator LNER has warned passengers not to travel north of Newcastle, while Avanti West Coast has advised its customers not to travel north of Preston as it will be “heavily affected” by the weather.
“We’re expecting heavy rain and high winds to result in disruption of services,” LNER said in a statement.
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Some trains have already been cancelled in Scotland, with Network Rail saying several lines will be closed from 12pm. Other routes will run with a reduced timetable and longer journey times.
Among the routes set to close at midday are Edinburgh to Fife, Perth to Dundee, and Aberdeen to Inverness, as well as the West Highland Line.
The storm could also lead to road closures – and several ferry services have already been cancelled by Scottish operator CalMac.
The Met Office said that much of Scotland, particularly western coastal areas, will be battered by heavy rain and windy conditions.
Image: Pic: Met Office
The strongest gusts are expected this afternoon and into the evening – but a Met Office spokesperson warned “there remains some uncertainty in the depth and track of Floris”.
Sky News’ weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: “Storm Floris is likely to bring a spell of weather not usually associated with the height of summer.
“Travelling across the Atlantic, this otherwise unremarkable, low-pressure system will cross a powerful jet stream, exiting on the cold side, renowned for storm formation.”
She said inland gusts of 50mph to 60mph are widely possible, potentially reaching 80mph to 90mph over exposed coasts, hills and bridges.
“The rain associated with this storm will largely clear through early tomorrow, but it’s as the rain goes that the winds start to strengthen,” she warned.
Almost two months after Air India Flight 171’s deadly crash, some of the 53 British nationals on board are only now being laid to rest.
Some 300 friends, families, and locals from the Gujarati community in and around Londongathered in Wembley for a prayer and memorial service dedicated to remembering some of the victims.
Wearing his father’s emerald ring that was miraculously recovered from the wreckage, Miten Patel addresses the crowd.
His parents, Ashok and Shobhana Patel, were travelling back to their home in Orpington, Kent, after a spiritual trip to India, when they were killed in the crash on 12 June.
Their funeral was held only days ago, after being delayed following the discovery that the remains of other individuals were found in Miten’s mother’s casket.
Image: Ashok and Shobhana Patel were among 241 who died in the Air India plane crash
He credits Professor Fiona Wilcox, the senior coroner at Inner West London Coroner’s Court, for meeting with him and his family to break the news.
“My parents were the first ones repatriated in the UK,” Miten explains – he organised the repatriation of his parents before he flew out to Ahmedabad.
“When they were back home, the first thing that they did was a CT scan. And that’s when it came about, the CT scan showed that with mum’s remains, there were further remains there too.
“I don’t know what they were. I don’t know how many.”
Image: The remains of other individuals were found in Miten’s mother’s casket
Miten’s parents’ funeral was attended by hundreds. His father, Ashok, was a financial adviser and his mother, Shobhana, was a retired microbiologist.
As the eldest son, organising much of his parents’ farewell fell to him. The concern around his mother’s remains delayed the family’s chance to grieve.
“I think there should be a level of responsibility taken. Why did that happen? Where was the flaw in that process? I mean I do understand that whole situation, people were rushing, people were very tired.
“You know, to get all the remains, then having to separate them by DNA, it’s a long process. But really, for us as loved ones, it is very upsetting.”
Indian government spokesman Randhir Jaiswal previously said the country was “working closely with the UK side from the moment these concerns and issues were brought to our attention”.
“In the wake of the tragic crash, the concerned authorities had carried out identification of victims as per established protocols and technical requirements,” he said. “All mortal remains were handled with utmost professionalism and with due regard for the dignity of the deceased.
“We are continuing to work with the UK authorities on addressing any concerns related to this issue.”
The flight crashed moments after take-off en route to Gatwick, killing 241 people on board. Horrifying images were beamed around the world within minutes.
Confusion and fear spread like wildfire among relatives back in the UK, who immediately tried to get hold of their loved ones.
It was a family member of Komal Patel’s who called her after seeing the images on the news.
There was only one flight out of Ahmedabad back to London that day, and she had only just been texting her brother Sunny and his wife Monali, who’d been on holiday.
The events of the past few weeks have been unfathomable.
Image: Sunny and Monali Patel were about to celebrate their 10-year anniversary
In her first interview about her brother and her sister-in-law, Komal explains how she flew out to India with her cousin Jina to go and identify her little brother.
“Because we weren’t really allowed to see the body, I don’t think I’ve really come to terms with it. I still think I’m dreaming and it’s not really real,” Komal tells us.
Sunny and Monali Patel were in their 30s and about to celebrate their 10-year anniversary.
Image: Komal Patel flew to India with her cousin Jina to identify her little brother
The couple were the “light” and “soul” of their families.
They loved having fun, playing with their nieces and nephews and adored travelling. Komal says her brother loved barbecues and her sister-in-law worked with children and adored hers too.
“They’re just really fun, exciting, really lived life, just made memories, just made everyone really happy,” says big sister Komal.
“They were like the heart of my kids. Whenever they walked into a room, they just filled up the room with laughter and happiness.”
Image: A photo of Sunny and Monali Patel, who died in the Air India plane crash, on display at a vigil
The couple had been due to fly back home to London a week beforehand but postponed their flight.
“It has just been very traumatic, very, very sad for us, losing Sunny and Monali at 39 years old,” says their cousin Jina.
“They were full of life and brought so much light into our family. As a family, we’re devastated at why two people so young, with so much energy, who brought so much into our families have just sort of gone in one day.”
A joint funeral for the husband and wife was held a fortnight ago and like hundreds of families impacted by this tragedy, the family are now rebuilding a foundation that has been shattered.