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Week 12 was a “gut it out, just get the W” kind of week, with each of the top four teams staring down too-close-for-comfort situations in their respective games.

Because all four won ugly, not much, if anything, should change Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces its fourth of six rankings. No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU should hold steady at the top as the nation’s only remaining undefeated teams.

The No. 5 spot will be the most interesting, as one-loss USC and two-loss LSU can both make a case to replace Tennessee following the Vols’ stunning 63-38 loss to unranked South Carolina on Saturday night.

Only one game remains in the regular season before the top contenders have a chance to punctuate their résumés with a conference title. No Week 13 game will have a greater impact on Selection Day than The Game, the annual rivalry matchup between Ohio State and Michigan, which will determine the winner of the Big Ten’s East division.

What the committee reveals Tuesday night, though, will provide more hints at how the group will sort everything out on Selection Day. Here’s what to look for, along with Adam Rittenberg’s case for USC being ranked higher than LSU and the top four picks of ESPN’s college football reporters.

Who’s No. 5?

LSU will remain the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, but while the Tigers were beating up on UAB 41-10, USC was clinching a spot in the Pac-12 championship game with a 48-45 instant classic against crosstown rival No. 16 UCLA. The Bruins now have three losses and will drop in the new rankings, but they should still be a CFP top 25 win for USC. According to ESPN’s strength of record metric, USC is ranked No. 9 and still looking up at No. 8 LSU.

The selection committee doesn’t look ahead, so while USC still has two opportunities to impress the committee in games against Notre Dame and the Pac-12 championship, the Trojans might not have done enough yet to usurp LSU. USC’s best wins are against Oregon State and UCLA. LSU’s best wins are against Alabama and Ole Miss, which has lost three of its past four. LSU’s 40-13 home loss to Tennessee now looks worse. If USC jumps LSU for that No. 5 spot, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan and Clemson Tigers should be concerned.

Does the loser of The Game really stand a chance?

The climb would appear more daunting if USC lands the fifth spot Tuesday — and if TCU happens to jump Michigan to No. 3. The committee determined last week that Georgia separated itself from the rest of the country, but there was discussion about Nos. 2, 3 and 4 before the committee ultimately settled on the status quo. Will TCU’s second road win change that, even though it wasn’t the Frogs’ best performance? If TCU jumps Michigan, it will put more pressure on the Wolverines to win Saturday. According to ESPN’s analytics, Michigan’s nonconference lineup of home games against Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn was the second weakest in the FBS.

With Tennessee’s loss, the Big Ten has the best chance to send multiple teams to the CFP. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Big Ten has a 67% chance to have multiple teams, while the SEC has a 29% chance. The reality in the committee meeting room, though, is that Ohio State would have a better chance than Michigan as East Division runner-up because of its win against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes’ win against the Irish would have to look better than whatever USC does Saturday to its rival because if the Trojans run the table and win the Pac-12, that common opponent will be a factor in the debate.

Will Clemson finish its season with two Top 25 opponents?

At No. 9, one-loss Clemson is currently stuck behind two-loss teams LSU and Alabama. Will Clemson also be looking up at two-loss Tennessee, too?! That would emphatically indicate Clemson is in a precarious position. In strength of record, Clemson, at No. 7, ranks behind No. 6 Tennessee.

Regardless, the Tigers need help, and they could get it Tuesday if four-loss South Carolina sneaks into the CFP top 25 after its resounding upset of Tennessee. Of course, that helps only if Clemson beats its in-state rival Saturday. Clemson’s best win currently is against No. 19 Florida State, followed by No. 24 NC State, but the Wolfpack lost their second straight game Saturday at Louisville and should drop out of the rankings Tuesday.

That leaves No. 13 North Carolina, which will face Clemson in the ACC championship game.

How far will the two-loss Tar Heels tumble after their embarrassing 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech (5-6)? A win for Clemson over the Tar Heels won’t impress the committee as much as the opportunities TCU and USC will have in their respective conference title games.


What the committee will — and should — do

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Paul Finebaum discusses USC’s path to the playoff after a win over UCLA in Week 12.

The top four teams in the CFP rankings survived Week 12 despite facing varying degrees of adversity. The committee isn’t likely to shuffle the order, so the real intrigue comes down to No. 5 after Tennessee’s historic loss at unranked South Carolina. Other than Georgia, Tennessee seemingly had the most secure path to the CFP until Saturday night. The Vols will be dropping in Tuesday night’s ranking, but which team replaces them at No. 5? That leads to our weekly debate.

What the CFP selection committee will do: Put LSU at No. 5 over USC

What the CFP selection committee should do: Put USC at No. 5 over LSU

The initial rankings had USC ahead of LSU, but the teams flipped after LSU’s dramatic win against Alabama. LSU remained one spot ahead of USC in last week’s rundown and didn’t do anything to hurt its standing Saturday night, pulling away from UAB in the second quarter for a 41-10 victory. The expectation here is that the committee will simply drop Tennessee and move up LSU and USC, in that order.

But how should USC be viewed after its dramatic 48-45 win over UCLA at the Rose Bowl? The UCLA game brought out the best in USC’s offense and quarterback Caleb Williams, who strengthened his case in the Heisman Trophy race with 470 passing yards. Until Saturday night, USC’s profile had been defined by wins over mostly bad teams and a respectable road loss to Utah. The Trojans now have two notable road victories: over UCLA and Oregon State, which could enter the committee’s top 20 Tuesday.

To be clear, USC doesn’t have a win that pops as much as LSU’s over Alabama. The Trojans’ best opportunities are ahead, against Notre Dame this week and, ideally, Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. But their top two wins occurred on the road, while LSU’s best road victories have come against Arkansas and Florida, two 6-5 teams that are under .500 in SEC play.

USC’s lone loss, to Utah, is quite similar to LSU’s 24-23 season-opening setback against Florida State, a three-loss team that should be slotted around the same spot as Utah in the new rankings. The only difference is USC’s loss occurred on the road, while LSU fell to FSU in New Orleans, hardly a true neutral site.

USC also doesn’t have a second loss, especially not a 27-point setback at home like the one LSU endured against Tennessee last month. Of note: Since dismantling LSU in Death Valley, Tennessee dropped its next two road games by a combined score of 90-51.

LSU’s second-best win, a 45-20 triumph over Ole Miss on Oct. 22, also has been devalued. The Rebels were largely noncompetitive in Saturday’s loss at Arkansas and likely will be slotted around Oregon State in Tuesday’s rankings.

A case can be made that LSU is more balanced than USC, which hasn’t stopped many offenses when it isn’t taking the ball away. LSU has risen to 20th nationally in points allowed, while USC languishes at 68th. But USC boasts a similar edge on offense, especially after Saturday night’s magic.

These are comparable teams, but USC now carries the stronger profile because of what has happened on the road — two good wins and a respectable loss. LSU can’t quite match that. — Adam Rittenberg


ESPN reporters’ top-four picks

Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU

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Buffs coach: Stars ‘should be going 1-2’ in draft

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Buffs coach: Stars 'should be going 1-2' in draft

BOULDER, Colo. — For the horde of NFL talent evaluators and some bleachers full of fans, Colorado coach Deion Sanders said Friday that they all got to see the top two players available in this year’s NFL draft.

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter were among the 16 Colorado players who took part in the school’s showcase event for scouts, coaches and personnel executives from every NFL team. And Deion Sanders said the two marquee players confirmed what he has known for a long time.

“It’s tremendous,” Sanders said. “… They should be going 1-2 [in the draft], that’s the way I feel about it. They are the two best players in this draft. … The surest bets in this draft are those two young men, and I didn’t stutter or stammer when I said that.”

Neither Shedeur Sanders nor Hunter took part in most of the position drills or physical testing, but Sanders had a throwing session for just under an hour and Hunter was one of the wide receivers who participated. Neither player worked out at the scouting combine earlier this year, so it was the first time Sanders had thrown in such a setting since the end of the season. He showed some full seven-step drops and play-action from the shotgun and under center.

“I think I did pretty good, to my expectations,” said Sanders, who set the career FBS accuracy mark in his two years at Colorado (71.8%) to go with his 4,134 passing yards and 37 touchdowns last season. “I know I did the best in college football right now, for sure.”

Asked after the throwing session whether he believed he was the best quarterback in the draft, Sanders said: “I feel like I’m the No. 1 quarterback, and that’s what I know. But at the end of the day, I’m not stuck on that because it’s about the situation, so whatever situation, whatever franchise believes in me, I’m excited to go. … I’m comfortable in any situation.”

Players Hunter, who did not speak to the media after the workout, and Sanders met with the Cleveland Browns contingent, including team co-owner Jimmy Haslam, on Thursday night in Boulder.

“They got me really full,” Sanders said. “I definitely needed to go to the sauna after that. … It was a good vibe.”

Said Deion Sanders said: “[I] spoke to the owner, truly delightful. He was engaging. … I think one of those guys is going to be there [at No. 2].”

Hunter, the No. 1 player on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board, did not do any defensive drills Friday, but he ran a full assortment of routes.

Colorado safety Shilo Sanders, Shedeur’s brother, offered plenty of encouragement, shouting commentary and clapping after each throw, including “not a lot of quarterbacks can make that throw” after one deep completion.

The highly attended event — by NFL representatives as well as fans packing small bleachers — had a festive atmosphere. Deion Sanders named it the “We Ain’t Hard 2 Find Showcase,” complete with a large lighted “The Showcase” sign next to the drills.

Hunter, who has said he wants to play offense and defense in the NFL, won the Chuck Bednarik (top defensive player) and Fred Biletnikoff (top receiver) awards in addition to the Heisman. He said whether he will primarily be a wide receiver or a cornerback in the NFL depends “on the team that picks me.”

On Friday, Deion Sanders said “ain’t nobody like Travis.”

Hunter had 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns as a receiver last season to go with 35 tackles, 11 pass breakups and 4 interceptions at cornerback. In the Buffaloes’ regular-season finale against Oklahoma State, he became the only FBS player in the past 25 years with three scrimmage touchdowns on offense and an interception in the same game, according to ESPN Research.

He played 1,380 total snaps in Colorado’s 12 regular-season games: 670 on offense, 686 on defense and 24 on special teams. He played 1,007 total snaps in 2023.

Shilo Sanders, who hoped to show teams more speed than expected, ran a 4.52 40-yard dash after he measured in at 5-foot-11⅞, 196 pounds. He did not participate in the jumps or bench press that opened the workout, citing a right shoulder injury.

With all NFL eyes on the Colorado campus to see Shedeur Sanders throw, one player who made the most of it was wide receiver Will Sheppard. Sheppard, who measured 6-2¼, 196 pounds, ran the 40 in 4.56 and 4.54 to go with a 40½-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-11 broad jump.

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O’s Henderson off IL; will make ’25 debut vs. KC

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O's Henderson off IL; will make '25 debut vs. KC

Baltimore Orioles All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson was activated from the 10-day injured list and will make his season debut Friday night against the Kansas City Royals.

Henderson has been sidelined with a right intercostal strain and missed the first seven games of the big league campaign.

The 23-year-old Henderson will lead off and play shortstop against the host Royals.

Henderson was injured during a spring training game Feb. 27. He was fourth in American League MVP voting last season when he batted .281 and racked up career bests of 37 homers and 92 RBIs.

Henderson completed a five-game rehab stint at Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday. He batted .263 (5-for-19) with two homers and four RBIs and played four games at shortstop and one as the designated hitter. He did commit three errors.

“I think everybody’s looking forward to having Gunnar back on the team,” Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said Thursday. “The rehab went really, really well. I talked to him a couple days ago, he feels great swinging the bat. The timing came, especially the last few days. He just had to get out there and get some reps defensively and get some games in, and it all went well.”

Baltimore optioned outfielder Dylan Carlson to Triple-A Norfolk to open up a roster spot. The 26-year-old was 0-for-4 with a run and RBI in two games this season.

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Life after OMG: Can 2025 Mets replicate their 2024 vibes?

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Life after OMG: Can 2025 Mets replicate their 2024 vibes?

When New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns attempted to assemble the best possible roster for the 2025 season this winter, the top priority was signing outfielder Juan Soto. Next was the need to replenish the starting rotation and bolster the bullpen. Then, days before pitchers and catchers reported for spring training, the lineup received one final significant reinforcement when first baseman Pete Alonso re-signed.

Acquiring a player with a singing career on the side didn’t make the cut.

“No, that is not on the list,” Stearns said with a smile.

Stearns’ decision not to re-sign Jose Iglesias, the infielder behind the mic for the viral 2024 Mets anthem “OMG,” was attributed to creating more roster flexibility. But it also hammered home a reality: The scrappy 2024 Mets, authors of a magical summer in Queens, are a thing of the past. The 2025 Mets, who will report to Citi Field for their home opener Friday, have much of the same core but also some prominent new faces — and the new, outsized expectations that come with falling two wins short of the World Series, then signing Soto to the richest contract in professional sports history.

But there’s a question surrounding this year’s team that you can’t put a price tag on: Can these Mets rekindle the magic — the vibes, the memes, the feel-good underdog story — that seemed to come out of nowhere to help carry them to Game 6 of the National League Championship Series last season?

“Last year the culture was created,” Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said. “It’s a matter of continuing it.”

For all the success Stearns has engineered — his small-market Milwaukee Brewers teams reached the postseason five times in eight seasons after he became the youngest general manager in history in 2015 — the 40-year-old Harvard grad, like the rest of his front office peers knows there’s no precise recipe for clubhouse chemistry. There is no culture projection system. No Vibes Above Replacement.

“Culture is very important,” Stearns said last weekend in the visiting dugout at Daikin Park before his club completed an opening-weekend series against the Houston Astros. “Culture is also very difficult to predict.”

Still, it seems the Mets’ 2024 season will be all but impossible to recreate.

There was Grimace, the purple McDonald’s blob who spontaneously became the franchise’s unofficial mascot after throwing out a first pitch in June. “OMG,” performed under Iglesias’ stage name, Candelita, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Latin Digital Songs chart, before a remix featuring Pitbull was released in October. Citi Field became a karaoke bar whenever Lindor stepped into the batter’s box with The Temptations’ “My Girl” as his walk-up song. Alonso unveiled a lucky pumpkin in October. They were gimmicks that might have felt forced if they hadn’t felt so right.

“I don’t know if what we did last year could be replicated because it was such a chaos-filled group,” Mets reliever Ryne Stanek said. “I don’t know if that’s replicable because there’s just too many things going on. I don’t know if that’s a sustainable model. But I think the expectation of winning is really important. I think establishing what we did last year and coming into this year where people are like, ‘Oh, no, that’s what we’re expecting to do,’ makes it different. It’s always a different vibe whenever you feel like you’re the hunter versus being the hunted.”

For the first two months last season, the Mets were terrible hunters. Lindor was relentlessly booed at Citi Field during another slow start. The bullpen got crushed. The losses piled up. The Mets began the season 0-5 and sunk to rock bottom on May 29 when reliever Jorge Lopez threw his glove into the stands during a 10-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers that dropped the team to 22-33.

That night, the Mets held a players-only meeting. From there, perhaps coincidentally, everything changed. The Mets won the next day, and 67 of their final 107 games.

This year, to avoid an early malaise and to better incorporate new faces like Soto and Opening Day starter Clay Holmes, players made it a point to hold meetings during spring training to lay a strong foundation.

“At the end of the day, we know who we are and that’s the beauty of our club,” Alonso said. “Not just who we are talent-wise, but who each individual is as a man and a personality. For us, our major, major strength is our collective identity as a unit.”

Organizationally, the Mets are attempting a dual-track makeover: Becoming perennial World Series contenders while not taking themselves too seriously.

The commemorative purple Grimace seat installed at Citi Field in September — Section 302, Row 6, Seat 12 in right field — remains there as part of a two-year contract. Last week, the franchise announced it will feature a New York-city themed “Five Borough” race at every home game — with a different mascot competing to represent each borough. For a third straight season, USA Today readers voted Citi Field — home of the rainbow cookie egg roll, among many other innovative treats — as having the best ballpark food in baseball.

In the clubhouse, their identity is evolving.

“I’m very much in the camp that you can’t force things,” Mets starter Sean Manaea said. “I mean, you can, but you don’t really end up with good results. And if you wait for things to happen organically, then sometimes it can take too long. So, there’s like a nudging of sorts. It’s like, ‘Let’s kind of come up with something, but not force it.’ So there’s a fine balance there and you just got to wait and see what happens.”

Stearns believes it starts with what the Mets can control: bringing positive energy every day and fostering a family atmosphere. It’s hard to quantify, but vibes undoubtedly helped fuel the Mets’ 2024 success. It’ll be a tough act to follow.

“It’s fluid,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “I like where guys are at as far as the team chemistry goes and things like that and the connections and the relationships. But it’ll continue to take some time. And winning helps, clearly.”

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