Week 12 was a “gut it out, just get the W” kind of week, with each of the top four teams staring down too-close-for-comfort situations in their respective games.
Because all four won ugly, not much, if anything, should change Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces its fourth of six rankings. No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU should hold steady at the top as the nation’s only remaining undefeated teams.
The No. 5 spot will be the most interesting, as one-loss USC and two-loss LSU can both make a case to replace Tennessee following the Vols’ stunning 63-38 loss to unranked South Carolina on Saturday night.
Only one game remains in the regular season before the top contenders have a chance to punctuate their résumés with a conference title. No Week 13 game will have a greater impact on Selection Day than The Game, the annual rivalry matchup between Ohio State and Michigan, which will determine the winner of the Big Ten’s East division.
What the committee reveals Tuesday night, though, will provide more hints at how the group will sort everything out on Selection Day. Here’s what to look for, along with Adam Rittenberg’s case for USC being ranked higher than LSU and the top four picks of ESPN’s college football reporters.
Who’s No. 5?
LSU will remain the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, but while the Tigers were beating up on UAB 41-10, USC was clinching a spot in the Pac-12 championship game with a 48-45 instant classic against crosstown rival No. 16 UCLA. The Bruins now have three losses and will drop in the new rankings, but they should still be a CFP top 25 win for USC. According to ESPN’s strength of record metric, USC is ranked No. 9 and still looking up at No. 8 LSU.
The selection committee doesn’t look ahead, so while USC still has two opportunities to impress the committee in games against Notre Dame and the Pac-12 championship, the Trojans might not have done enough yet to usurp LSU. USC’s best wins are against Oregon State and UCLA. LSU’s best wins are against Alabama and Ole Miss, which has lost three of its past four. LSU’s 40-13 home loss to Tennessee now looks worse. If USC jumps LSU for that No. 5 spot, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan and Clemson Tigers should be concerned.
Does the loser of The Game really stand a chance?
The climb would appear more daunting if USC lands the fifth spot Tuesday — and if TCU happens to jump Michigan to No. 3. The committee determined last week that Georgia separated itself from the rest of the country, but there was discussion about Nos. 2, 3 and 4 before the committee ultimately settled on the status quo. Will TCU’s second road win change that, even though it wasn’t the Frogs’ best performance? If TCU jumps Michigan, it will put more pressure on the Wolverines to win Saturday. According to ESPN’s analytics, Michigan’s nonconference lineup of home games against Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn was the second weakest in the FBS.
With Tennessee’s loss, the Big Ten has the best chance to send multiple teams to the CFP. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Big Ten has a 67% chance to have multiple teams, while the SEC has a 29% chance. The reality in the committee meeting room, though, is that Ohio State would have a better chance than Michigan as East Division runner-up because of its win against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes’ win against the Irish would have to look better than whatever USC does Saturday to its rival because if the Trojans run the table and win the Pac-12, that common opponent will be a factor in the debate.
Will Clemson finish its season with two Top 25 opponents?
At No. 9, one-loss Clemson is currently stuck behind two-loss teams LSU and Alabama. Will Clemson also be looking up at two-loss Tennessee, too?! That would emphatically indicate Clemson is in a precarious position. In strength of record, Clemson, at No. 7, ranks behind No. 6 Tennessee.
Regardless, the Tigers need help, and they could get it Tuesday if four-loss South Carolina sneaks into the CFP top 25 after its resounding upset of Tennessee. Of course, that helps only if Clemson beats its in-state rival Saturday. Clemson’s best win currently is against No. 19 Florida State, followed by No. 24 NC State, but the Wolfpack lost their second straight game Saturday at Louisville and should drop out of the rankings Tuesday.
That leaves No. 13 North Carolina, which will face Clemson in the ACC championship game.
How far will the two-loss Tar Heels tumble after their embarrassing 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech (5-6)? A win for Clemson over the Tar Heels won’t impress the committee as much as the opportunities TCU and USC will have in their respective conference title games.
What the committee will — and should — do
Paul Finebaum discusses USC’s path to the playoff after a win over UCLA in Week 12.
The top four teams in the CFP rankings survived Week 12 despite facing varying degrees of adversity. The committee isn’t likely to shuffle the order, so the real intrigue comes down to No. 5 after Tennessee’s historic loss at unranked South Carolina. Other than Georgia, Tennessee seemingly had the most secure path to the CFP until Saturday night. The Vols will be dropping in Tuesday night’s ranking, but which team replaces them at No. 5? That leads to our weekly debate.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Put LSU at No. 5 over USC
What the CFP selection committee should do: Put USC at No. 5 over LSU
The initial rankings had USC ahead of LSU, but the teams flipped after LSU’s dramatic win against Alabama. LSU remained one spot ahead of USC in last week’s rundown and didn’t do anything to hurt its standing Saturday night, pulling away from UAB in the second quarter for a 41-10 victory. The expectation here is that the committee will simply drop Tennessee and move up LSU and USC, in that order.
But how should USC be viewed after its dramatic 48-45 win over UCLA at the Rose Bowl? The UCLA game brought out the best in USC’s offense and quarterback Caleb Williams, who strengthened his case in the Heisman Trophy race with 470 passing yards. Until Saturday night, USC’s profile had been defined by wins over mostly bad teams and a respectable road loss to Utah. The Trojans now have two notable road victories: over UCLA and Oregon State, which could enter the committee’s top 20 Tuesday.
To be clear, USC doesn’t have a win that pops as much as LSU’s over Alabama. The Trojans’ best opportunities are ahead, against Notre Dame this week and, ideally, Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. But their top two wins occurred on the road, while LSU’s best road victories have come against Arkansas and Florida, two 6-5 teams that are under .500 in SEC play.
USC’s lone loss, to Utah, is quite similar to LSU’s 24-23 season-opening setback against Florida State, a three-loss team that should be slotted around the same spot as Utah in the new rankings. The only difference is USC’s loss occurred on the road, while LSU fell to FSU in New Orleans, hardly a true neutral site.
USC also doesn’t have a second loss, especially not a 27-point setback at home like the one LSU endured against Tennessee last month. Of note: Since dismantling LSU in Death Valley, Tennessee dropped its next two road games by a combined score of 90-51.
LSU’s second-best win, a 45-20 triumph over Ole Miss on Oct. 22, also has been devalued. The Rebels were largely noncompetitive in Saturday’s loss at Arkansas and likely will be slotted around Oregon State in Tuesday’s rankings.
A case can be made that LSU is more balanced than USC, which hasn’t stopped many offenses when it isn’t taking the ball away. LSU has risen to 20th nationally in points allowed, while USC languishes at 68th. But USC boasts a similar edge on offense, especially after Saturday night’s magic.
These are comparable teams, but USC now carries the stronger profile because of what has happened on the road — two good wins and a respectable loss. LSU can’t quite match that. — Adam Rittenberg
ESPN reporters’ top-four picks
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
BOULDER, Colo. — Deion Sanders watched his Colorado offense put up 49 points on the top scoring defense in the Big 12 on Saturday, but he isn’t satisfied. The coach expects dominance in all three phases of the game.
The Buffaloes outplayed Utah in two out of three phases and eventually got rolling on offense in a 49-24 victory, extending their win streak to four games and ensuring they’ll remain in the Big 12 championship race the rest of the way. Afterward, Sanders delivered a critique that sounded a little more like a warning to others.
“We haven’t even put it all together yet,” Sanders said. “Like, we haven’t even played our best game. That should be, in itself, scary. Like, man, when I said we comin’, we still comin’. We never stopped comin’. We are comin’. And we ain’t nearly there yet.”
Colorado (8-2, 6-1) got a strong start from its defense, which held the Utes (4-6, 1-6) to 83 yards on 33 plays in the first half, and a 76-yard punt return touchdown from receiver LaJohntay Wester to help make up for a bumpy start on offense. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders was intercepted on his first pass and later fumbled a snap for another turnover.
It may not have been the Buffaloes’ finest performance of the season, but it was a 25-point win over the preseason Big 12 front-runner, snapping a seven-game losing streak against a program whose last win at Folsom Field came by a score of 63-21.
“I think that speaks a lot about the program and where we are,” Deion Sanders said. “We’ve got to tighten some things up and get some things together, but you see we’re trending in the right direction.
“We started off rough. That wasn’t indicative to who Shedeur is, and I thought he was kind of OK all game long. Then I look at the stats and he’s 30-for-41 for 340 [yards] and three [touchdowns]. Like, c’mon man. I guess I’m just a hard dad to please at times, as well as a hard head coach.”
Sanders praised Utah’s defense and the problems it presented throughout the contest and said he was thankful for the challenge. It took complementary football to overcome the two first-half turnovers, with Colorado’s defense holding Utah to field goals after both takeaways. The Buffaloes didn’t surrender a touchdown until midway through the third quarter.
“Those type of things can’t happen,” Shedeur Sanders said, “and I’m going to have a talk with the whole offense and apologize for my performance out there at the very beginning, because I can’t put the team in that type of situation. I’m thankful for the defense. I may have to take them out to dinner this week for saving me and saving the team.”
Sanders responded after the fumble by guiding an 85-yard touchdown drive that featured another highlight-reel moment for Travis Hunter. Sanders threw deep to Colorado’s two-way star on a fourth-and-8, and Hunter made a leaping grab over two Utah defenders for a 25-yard gain. Sanders hit Will Sheppard for an 8-yard score on his next throw to extend Colorado’s lead to 21-6.
Hunter added to his Heisman Trophy résumé Saturday with 55 receiving yards on five catches, a 5-yard rushing touchdown on a reverse and his third interception of the season while playing 132 snaps.
When asked if he had a message for undecided Heisman voters, Deion Sanders did not hold back.
“If they can’t see, they can’t see,” Sanders said. “It is what it is. I mean, Travis is who he is. It’s supposed to go to the best college football player. I think that’s been a wrap since, what, Week 2? So we ain’t petitioning for nobody. We ain’t doing that. We’ve got a wonderful display of cameras here and I think we’re on national television every week. If they can’t see it, there’s a problem.
“Don’t allow their hatred for me to interfere with our kids’ success. They gotta stop that. Y’all gotta stop. Some of y’all are like that. Y’all gotta stop that, man. Give the kids what they deserve, man. I had my turn. I played 14 years. You had 14 years to hate me. Now let it go.”
Hunter was the Heisman front-runner in ESPN BET odds entering Week 12 at +125, ahead of Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Miami quarterback Cam Ward.
Colorado’s defense was able to constantly pressure freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson, forcing four sacks and three interceptions, and Utah finished with a mere 31 rushing yards, their fewest in a game since 2011. The preseason No. 12 Utes were considered the Big 12 favorites entering their first season in the conference but are now in danger of their first losing campaign since 2013.
“I’m in the twilight zone,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. “… It’s the most difficult year of my coaching career, hands down, not even close.”
Colorado continues to control its destiny in chasing a Big 12 championship game bid, as the lone team in the 16-member conference that has lost just one conference game entering Saturday. The Buffaloes’ four-game win streak since a 31-28 home loss to Kansas State on Oct. 12 is the longest of Sanders’ two-year tenure.
After a 4-8 debut season, he has this once struggling program right where he planned to be for Year 2. In a league known for dramatic games decided by one-score margins, Sanders isn’t just trying to survive and advance to Arlington, Texas. He says he’s aiming for “flawless.”
“We expect to be here,” Sanders said. “A lot of y’all didn’t expect us to be here, and don’t think we don’t know that. But we expected to be where we are. Matter of fact, we expected to be a little better.”
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — DJ Lagway threw for a touchdown and set up another with a long completion in his return from a strained left hamstring, and Florida upset No. 21 LSU27-16 on Saturday to give the Gators their first series victory since 2018.
Jadan Baugh‘s 55-yard scoring scamper with 3:48 remaining essentially sealed it and put the Gators (5-5, 3-4 Southeastern Conference) on the verge of becoming bowl-eligible. Florida had dropped eight in a row against ranked opponents and was 1-10 under coach Billy Napier in rivalry games.
Former Florida coach Steve Spurrier suggested all week that fans should rush the field named after him if the Gators win. But it didn’t happen.
Florida’s defense, though, deserved to be celebrated. The unit sacked Garrett Nussmeier seven times — one more than LSU (6-4, 3-3) had allowed in its first nine games combined.
Lagway provided the big plays on offense for Florida. After sitting out most of the past two losses with the injury, he connected with Elijhah Badger for a 23-yard score in the first quarter. Lagway never scrambled but was mobile enough to create extra time by moving around the pocket.
He completed 13 of 26 passes for 226 yards. Badger caught six for 131 yards.
“Elite play,” Florida coach Billy Napier said of Lagway. “God blessed that young man.”
The game started to turn in Florida’s favor when T.J. Searcy sacked Nussmeier late in the third quarter. Nussmeier fumbled, one of his linemen scooped it out of the air then fumbled again. Caleb Banks recovered in what was one of several huge plays for the defensive tackle.
The Gators went backward from there despite the solid field position and ended up punting. But Jeremy Crawshaw pinned the Tigers inside the 10-yard line.
Florida then forced a punt and started another drive in LSU territory. This time, Lagway found Badger for a 36-yard gain that set up Ja’Kobi Jackson‘s 1-yard scoring run.
LSU dominated time of possession in the first half and doubled up Florida in plays. But Nussmeier struggled to find time in the second half. He completed 27 of 47 passes for 260 yards with a touchdown and the fumble, and the Gators’ defense frustrated him in bouncing back from a subpar effort the week before in a blowout loss at Texas.
“Last week was unacceptable, and they took ownership of that,” Napier said of his defense. “There was no moping around.”
Losing three in a row — to Texas A&M, Alabama and now Florida — makes it impossible for LSU coach Brian Kelly to continue his streak of 10-win seasons, which will end at seven. Kelly won double-digit games in each of his last five seasons at Notre Dame and extended it with consecutive 10-win campaigns in Baton Rouge.
“This is a simple exercise of do you want to fight or not?” Kelly said after the loss. “Do you want to fight and take responsibility as coaches and players that we’re not playing well and we’re struggling right now? … There’s a rough spot here that we have to fight through, and we have to do it together.”
As Napier left the field following handshakes and postgame interviews, he was cheered by the fans hovering at the team’s tunnel.
“You’ve got to be a tough guy, and you got to be up for the challenge,” Napier said. “This group has proven they’re up for that. It’s harder than ever in my opinion. These guys could have pointed fingers and splintered a long time ago. That’s what I’m most proud of.”
College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
Ball State fired coach Mike Neu, the school announced Saturday. The Cardinals are 3-7.
Neu was 40-63 in nine seasons at Ball State. Neu led the Cardinals to the MAC title in 2020, which was his only winning season at Ball State.
Sources told ESPN that the staff was informed of Neu’s dismissal early Saturday.
Offensive line coach Colin Johnson will serve as the interim head coach for the last two games, athletic director Jeff Mitchell said in a statement. Ball State hosts Bowling Green on Nov. 23 then plays at Ohio on Nov. 29.
Neu, 53, is a beloved alum with a strong campus reputation, but the lack of results ultimately led to his dismissal. Ball State lost 51-48 in overtime at Buffalo this week and fell to 2-4 in MAC play.
That clinched a fourth consecutive losing season for Ball State.
“Coach Neu has poured his heart into the Ball State football program,” Mitchell said in the statement. “I commend him for his professionalism and the positive team culture he has constructed. His efforts have greatly impacted the lives of hundreds of young men. He has represented the Ball State brand with integrity and class, and I wish him well in future pursuits.”
Neu led Ball State to two bowl games. That included a win over San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl to conclude the 2020 season, when Ball State finished 7-1 and won its first MAC title since 1996.