Week 12 was a “gut it out, just get the W” kind of week, with each of the top four teams staring down too-close-for-comfort situations in their respective games.
Because all four won ugly, not much, if anything, should change Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces its fourth of six rankings. No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU should hold steady at the top as the nation’s only remaining undefeated teams.
The No. 5 spot will be the most interesting, as one-loss USC and two-loss LSU can both make a case to replace Tennessee following the Vols’ stunning 63-38 loss to unranked South Carolina on Saturday night.
Only one game remains in the regular season before the top contenders have a chance to punctuate their résumés with a conference title. No Week 13 game will have a greater impact on Selection Day than The Game, the annual rivalry matchup between Ohio State and Michigan, which will determine the winner of the Big Ten’s East division.
What the committee reveals Tuesday night, though, will provide more hints at how the group will sort everything out on Selection Day. Here’s what to look for, along with Adam Rittenberg’s case for USC being ranked higher than LSU and the top four picks of ESPN’s college football reporters.
Who’s No. 5?
LSU will remain the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, but while the Tigers were beating up on UAB 41-10, USC was clinching a spot in the Pac-12 championship game with a 48-45 instant classic against crosstown rival No. 16 UCLA. The Bruins now have three losses and will drop in the new rankings, but they should still be a CFP top 25 win for USC. According to ESPN’s strength of record metric, USC is ranked No. 9 and still looking up at No. 8 LSU.
The selection committee doesn’t look ahead, so while USC still has two opportunities to impress the committee in games against Notre Dame and the Pac-12 championship, the Trojans might not have done enough yet to usurp LSU. USC’s best wins are against Oregon State and UCLA. LSU’s best wins are against Alabama and Ole Miss, which has lost three of its past four. LSU’s 40-13 home loss to Tennessee now looks worse. If USC jumps LSU for that No. 5 spot, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan and Clemson Tigers should be concerned.
Does the loser of The Game really stand a chance?
The climb would appear more daunting if USC lands the fifth spot Tuesday — and if TCU happens to jump Michigan to No. 3. The committee determined last week that Georgia separated itself from the rest of the country, but there was discussion about Nos. 2, 3 and 4 before the committee ultimately settled on the status quo. Will TCU’s second road win change that, even though it wasn’t the Frogs’ best performance? If TCU jumps Michigan, it will put more pressure on the Wolverines to win Saturday. According to ESPN’s analytics, Michigan’s nonconference lineup of home games against Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn was the second weakest in the FBS.
With Tennessee’s loss, the Big Ten has the best chance to send multiple teams to the CFP. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Big Ten has a 67% chance to have multiple teams, while the SEC has a 29% chance. The reality in the committee meeting room, though, is that Ohio State would have a better chance than Michigan as East Division runner-up because of its win against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes’ win against the Irish would have to look better than whatever USC does Saturday to its rival because if the Trojans run the table and win the Pac-12, that common opponent will be a factor in the debate.
Will Clemson finish its season with two Top 25 opponents?
At No. 9, one-loss Clemson is currently stuck behind two-loss teams LSU and Alabama. Will Clemson also be looking up at two-loss Tennessee, too?! That would emphatically indicate Clemson is in a precarious position. In strength of record, Clemson, at No. 7, ranks behind No. 6 Tennessee.
Regardless, the Tigers need help, and they could get it Tuesday if four-loss South Carolina sneaks into the CFP top 25 after its resounding upset of Tennessee. Of course, that helps only if Clemson beats its in-state rival Saturday. Clemson’s best win currently is against No. 19 Florida State, followed by No. 24 NC State, but the Wolfpack lost their second straight game Saturday at Louisville and should drop out of the rankings Tuesday.
That leaves No. 13 North Carolina, which will face Clemson in the ACC championship game.
How far will the two-loss Tar Heels tumble after their embarrassing 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech (5-6)? A win for Clemson over the Tar Heels won’t impress the committee as much as the opportunities TCU and USC will have in their respective conference title games.
What the committee will — and should — do
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Paul Finebaum discusses USC’s path to the playoff after a win over UCLA in Week 12.
The top four teams in the CFP rankings survived Week 12 despite facing varying degrees of adversity. The committee isn’t likely to shuffle the order, so the real intrigue comes down to No. 5 after Tennessee’s historic loss at unranked South Carolina. Other than Georgia, Tennessee seemingly had the most secure path to the CFP until Saturday night. The Vols will be dropping in Tuesday night’s ranking, but which team replaces them at No. 5? That leads to our weekly debate.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Put LSU at No. 5 over USC
What the CFP selection committee should do: Put USC at No. 5 over LSU
The initial rankings had USC ahead of LSU, but the teams flipped after LSU’s dramatic win against Alabama. LSU remained one spot ahead of USC in last week’s rundown and didn’t do anything to hurt its standing Saturday night, pulling away from UAB in the second quarter for a 41-10 victory. The expectation here is that the committee will simply drop Tennessee and move up LSU and USC, in that order.
But how should USC be viewed after its dramatic 48-45 win over UCLA at the Rose Bowl? The UCLA game brought out the best in USC’s offense and quarterback Caleb Williams, who strengthened his case in the Heisman Trophy race with 470 passing yards. Until Saturday night, USC’s profile had been defined by wins over mostly bad teams and a respectable road loss to Utah. The Trojans now have two notable road victories: over UCLA and Oregon State, which could enter the committee’s top 20 Tuesday.
To be clear, USC doesn’t have a win that pops as much as LSU’s over Alabama. The Trojans’ best opportunities are ahead, against Notre Dame this week and, ideally, Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. But their top two wins occurred on the road, while LSU’s best road victories have come against Arkansas and Florida, two 6-5 teams that are under .500 in SEC play.
USC’s lone loss, to Utah, is quite similar to LSU’s 24-23 season-opening setback against Florida State, a three-loss team that should be slotted around the same spot as Utah in the new rankings. The only difference is USC’s loss occurred on the road, while LSU fell to FSU in New Orleans, hardly a true neutral site.
USC also doesn’t have a second loss, especially not a 27-point setback at home like the one LSU endured against Tennessee last month. Of note: Since dismantling LSU in Death Valley, Tennessee dropped its next two road games by a combined score of 90-51.
LSU’s second-best win, a 45-20 triumph over Ole Miss on Oct. 22, also has been devalued. The Rebels were largely noncompetitive in Saturday’s loss at Arkansas and likely will be slotted around Oregon State in Tuesday’s rankings.
A case can be made that LSU is more balanced than USC, which hasn’t stopped many offenses when it isn’t taking the ball away. LSU has risen to 20th nationally in points allowed, while USC languishes at 68th. But USC boasts a similar edge on offense, especially after Saturday night’s magic.
These are comparable teams, but USC now carries the stronger profile because of what has happened on the road — two good wins and a respectable loss. LSU can’t quite match that. — Adam Rittenberg
ESPN reporters’ top-four picks
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
NORMAN, Okla. — A week after John Mateer threw for the most yards in an Oklahoma quarterback debut against Illinois State, the transfer passer’s instinctive playmaking highlighted an imperfect performance that helped propel the No. 18 Sooners to a 24-13 win over No. 15 Michigan on Saturday night.
While Oklahoma smothered Wolverines freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, Mateer completed 21 of his 34 passes for 270 yards with a passing touchdown and an interception. He also finished with a team-high 19 carries for 74 yards, adding a pair of rushing scores on either side of halftime in his second career start for the Sooners.
“You saw what he can do,” Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables said of Mateer. “He falls forward a lot. He’s got great strength and great skills. Tough guy. He’s fearless. He attacks everything without fear.”
Playing behind four new offensive line starters, including freshman left tackle Michael Fasusi, Mateer remained poised against the Michigan pass rush early, connecting on completions of 34, 31 and 21 yards across the Sooners’ initial pair of offensive drives. According to ESPN Research, Mateer finished 8-of-13 with 156 passing yards and a touchdown in blitzing situations Saturday.
Oklahoma opened the scoring on its opening possession via a pop pass from Mateer to wide receiver Deion Burks, who logged a team-high seven receptions for 101 yards. Mateer’s 2-yard rushing score with 22 seconds remaining in the second quarter handed Oklahoma a 14-0 halftime lead, and he used his legs again for a 10-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter.
Mateer’s 19 carries marked the fourth-highest single-game tally of his career and included three runs of at least 10 yards. With his pair of rushing scores, Mateer joined Lamar Jackson and D’Eriq King as the only FBS players to record at least one passing and rushing score in eight consecutive games since 2015, according to ESPN Research, dating to his breakout campaign at Washington State last fall.
“John’s a willing runner,” Sooners offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle said. “He understands what it takes to win. They’re definitely designed QB runs in the game. At the end of the day, you’re just trying to win a football game, and John Mateer is willing [to run]. He probably took a big hit or two tonight. But hopefully all for the good of the team.”
Mateer’s night was not without mistakes. He was intercepted by Michigan defensive back TJ Metcalf in the first quarter after overthrowing tight end Will Huggins. Mateer was nearly intercepted again after halftime, and his third-quarter overthrow in the end zone beyond the hands of tight end Jaren Kanak cost the Sooners seven points as the Wolverines mounted a second-half comeback.
But Mateer’s risk-taking and flair for the extraordinary were also the drivers for Oklahoma in only the Sooners’ third win over a top-15 opponent under Venables. The Sooners led 14-7 early in the third quarter when Mateer shed a tackle in the backfield, rolled to his right and fired a 36-yard strike to wide receiver Isaiah Sategna. Mateer ran in his second touchdown and lifted the Sooners to a 21-7 advantage just two plays later.
“The thing with John, I trust that kid to like no end,” Arbuckle said. “He understands moments and situations. He knows when to take a chance, when not to take a chance. So whenever he lets one rip and puts the ball in what someone may say is a risky situation, whenever he does that, I have the utmost confidence that he’s making the right decision.”
Another one of Mateer’s risks paid off early in the fourth quarter, ultimately launching an 8:27 drive that allowed Oklahoma to drain the remaining minutes and any lingering hope of a Michigan comeback.
Facing second-and-10 from the Sooners’ 38-yard line, Mateer again rolled out and — with Wolverines linebacker Jaishawn Barham bearing down on him — made a daring throw off his back foot into heavy traffic to find Kanak for a 9-yard connection.
“[Kanak] kind of went to the open space and I threw it a little dangerous,” Mateer said. “But he made it happen.”
A timely bit of innovation, Mateer’s throw marked the start of a 16-play, 78-yard scoring drive that effectively iced Oklahoma’s Week 2 victory and showed off the very best of Mateer and what his game-changing playmaking ability can offer the Sooners.
Oklahoma visits Temple in Week 3 before embarking on a gauntlet of an SEC schedule at home against Auburn on Sept. 20.
MADISON, Ill. — Denny Hamlin remained perfect in qualifying during the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, capturing the pole position Saturday at World Wide Technology Raceway.
It’s the 46th career pole and third this season for the Joe Gibbs Racing star, who also qualified first for last week’s playoff opener at Darlington Raceway.
“We made some great adjustments from where we were in practice,” said Hamlin, who turned a 139.190 mph lap in his No. 11 Toyota. “That’s what they did so well last week for qualifying. Now we’ve got great track position and just got to maintain it, and we’ll be in good shape.”
Kyle Larson will start second alongside Hamlin, earning his first top-10 qualifying effort on the 1.25-mile oval east of St. Louis.
It was a notable departure from how the playoffs began at Darlington. Only four championship-eligible drivers finished in the top 10 of the Southern 500, a record low for a playoff opener.
Among the disappointments was Larson, whose 19th at Darlington continued a five-race drought without a top-five finish.
“I think our team needs it more than anything,” the 2021 Cup champion said. “We haven’t been able to celebrate a whole lot, so we will definitely celebrate a front row starting spot at Gateway. It’s been a rough, inconsistent couple of months, so even just qualifying good feels really nice.”
Alex Bowman, who has finished no higher than 13th at Gateway, qualified 25th as the only playoff driver who will start outside the top 20. Bowman is tied with Josh Berry (who qualified 12th) for last in the points standings among the 16 playoff drivers.
“It’s great,” Belichick said, “but it’s really about the team. It was disappointing Monday night against TCU, but these guys bounced back — players, coaches, staff, support people — and just got back to work. They were determined to have a better outcome. I’m really proud of what they did. They deserve the credit for tonight.”
After a 48-14 blowout loss that included two defensive touchdowns by the Horned Frogs, Belichick praised the team’s ability to shrug off the performance and focus on the fundamentals.
UNC led 17-3 at the half, rushed for 148 yards, and didn’t turn over the ball against Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels’ maligned defense held the 49ers to just 21 yards on the ground, five days after TCU ran for 258.
The news cycle after Monday’s loss had been ugly for Belichick and the Tar Heels — “a lot of negativity from the outside,” he said — including reports from multiple outlets, including ESPN, that scouts from the New England Patriots, with whom Belichick won six Super Bowls, have been banned from North Carolina’s facility.
Belichick confirmed those reports Saturday, saying the decision was in response to a closed-door edict in New England.
“It’s obvious I’m not welcome at their facility,” Belichick said, “so they’re not welcome at ours.”
Belichick has had an acrimonious divorce from New England and owner Bob Kraft since he left the Patriots after the 2023 season, with multiple spats erupting in the media in recent months. Belichick took issue with comments from Kraft that hiring him had been a “big risk,” releasing a statement in July saying that he was the one who took a risk by accepting the job. In a Boston Globe story last month, Belichick appeared to take another swipe, saying that one of the perks of his job at North Carolina is that “there’s no owner, there’s no owner’s son,” the latter a reference to Jonathan Kraft.
On Saturday, Belichick seemed in far better spirits, though hardly effervescent in his celebration.
Asked if the team had given Belichick a game ball to celebrate his first win with the Tar Heels, senior Gavin Gibson laughed and said, “If we’d tried, I think he’d look at us like, ‘Nah.'”
Instead, Belichick pointed to UNC’s determination to wipe the slate clean after Monday’s ugly loss and offer some renewed hope that the Tar Heels wouldn’t roll over.
“It was clear in the locker room and as we got out on the practice field there was a … higher level of determination and commitment,” Belichick said. “That was good to see us improve.”
North Carolina hosts Richmond next week before heading to UCF to close out its nonconference schedule.