Indyref2: The four possible outcomes as Scotland awaits Supreme Court’s ruling

Published

3 years ago

November 23, 2022

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The intense discussion over Scotland’s future is reaching another, major milestone.

Politicians on both sides of Scotland’s independence debate are waiting with bated breath for the judgment from the Supreme Court on whether the Scottish parliament has the power to legislate for a second referendum without the approval of Westminster.

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Five judges – who have spent the last month examining 8,000 pages of legal arguments – are set to deliver their determination at 9.45am today.

There are four possible outcomes.

Scottish government wins

If the Scottish government wins, activists say it would essentially trigger the beginning of a referendum campaign.

It would allow Nicola Sturgeon to table the draft referendum bill at the Scottish parliament, where it would pass because the majority of MSPs are independence supporters.

An emboldened first minister would demand renewed talks with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to seek the “gold standard” agreement similar to 2014.

It is likely these talks would be fraught.

UK government wins

The second scenario is the court sides with the UK government and rules consent is needed from Westminster to re-run a referendum.

Downing Street would feel its position has been vindicated, but Ms Sturgeon is likely to argue it is an attack on democracy and “proves” Scotland is “trapped in an unequal union”.

The first minister has been clear that she will use the next general election on the single issue of whether Scotland should become independent.

Her ministers say it would be a “de-facto” referendum; their opponents say they will boycott any such scenario.

Court makes no ruling

Another possible outcome is the court decides it is unable to rule on a Holyrood-created referendum because the planned legislation is still in draft form.

Court gives a view – even if premature

And even though UK government lawyers urged the judges to hold back on ruling on hypothetical scenarios, they might decide to offer a view to clear things up once and for all.

How did we get here?

In the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum, the former first minister Alex Salmond and then prime minister David Cameron signed an official agreement to allow the vote to take place.

The eventual outcome was Scotland voting to stay in the United Kingdom.

Since then, Ms Sturgeon’s SNP government has won every Scottish election and put a referendum commitment in each manifesto.

Ms Sturgeon argued, among other issues, that Scotland was “dragged” out of the EU despite voting to remain.

She insists her party has a mandate to test the electorate on the question of independence on 19 October 2023.

However, this time the Conservative government at Westminster is not agreeing to a second vote.

Successive prime ministers have said the 2014 vote was decisive, and the SNP should instead focus on improving domestic challenges in education and the health service.

Why this ruling matters

There has been a deadlock between Holyrood and London for years.

The political stand-off landed in the Supreme Court in October, where the Scottish government sought clarity on Edinburgh holding a vote without the consent of London.

It argued any referendum would be “entirely advisory” with “no legal consequences”.

UK government lawyers insisted it was crystal clear Holyrood does not hold the power for a second vote, and urged judges to throw out the case.

They argued it would be “premature” to rule on something which is only a proposed bill at this stage.

The Supreme Court’s role is to look at the matter only from a legal perspective.

It cannot be underestimated how important this ruling is because nearly every day-to-day issue in Scotland is seen through the prism of the constitution.

It is arguably the biggest political elephant in the room, lingering over domestic debate.

Almost every poll suggests Scots are split down the middle on the future of the country, and it’s unclear whether this judgment will help settle the matter.

World

UN’s Antonio Guterres condemns ‘teaspoon’ of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes

Published

4 hours ago

May 24, 2025

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UN's Antonio Guterres condemns 'teaspoon' of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes

The head of the UN has said Israel has only authorised for Gaza what amounts to a “teaspoon” of aid after at least 60 people died in overnight airstrikes.

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday the supplies approved so far “amounts to a teaspoon of aid when a flood of assistance is required,” adding “the needs are massive and the obstacles are staggering”.

He warned that more people will die unless there is “rapid, reliable, safe and sustained aid access”.

Israel says around 300 aid trucks have been allowed through since it lifted an 11-week blockade on Monday, but according to Mr Guterres, only about a third have been transported to warehouses within Gaza due to insecurity.

The IDF said 107 vehicles carrying flour, food, medical equipment and drugs were allowed through on Thursday.

Many of Gaza’s two million residents are at high risk of famine, experts have warned.

Meanwhile, at least 60 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes across Gaza overnight.

Ten people died in the southern city of Khan Younis, and deaths were also reported in the central town of Deir al-Balah and the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north, according to the Nasser, Al-Aqsa and Al-Ahli hospitals where the bodies were brought.

The latest strikes came a day after two Israeli embassy workers were killed in Washington.

The suspect, named as 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, told police he “did it for Gaza”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney of fuelling antisemitism following the shootings.

The leaders of the UK, France and Canada are “on the wrong side of humanity and (…) history”, he said, after they threatened “concrete action” against Israel this week if it continues its “egregious” military operations in Gaza.

Mr Netanyahu also accused Sir Keir, Mr Macron and Mr Carney of siding with “mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.

But UK government minister Luke Pollard told Sky News on Friday morning he “doesn’t recognise” Mr Netanyahu’s accusation.

Earlier this week, Mr Netanyahu said he was recalling negotiators from the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of ceasefire talks failed to bring results. A working team will remain.

The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251 others.

The militants are still holding 58 captives, around a third of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals.

Israel’s offensive, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza, has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

World

’12 people’ injured in stabbing at Hamburg train station – as woman arrested

Published

7 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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'12 people' injured in stabbing at Hamburg train station - as woman arrested

A woman has been arrested after 12 people were reportedly injured in a stabbing at Hamburg’s central train station in Germany.

An attacker armed with a knife targeted people on the platform between tracks 13 and 14, according to police.

They added that the suspect was a 39-year-old woman.

Officers said they “believe she acted alone” and investigations into the stabbing are continuing.

There was no immediate information on a possible motive.

The fire service said six of the injured were in a life-threatening condition, three others were seriously hurt, and another three sustained minor injuries, news agency dpa reported.

The attack happened shortly after 6pm local time (5pm UK time) on Friday in front of a waiting train, regional public broadcaster NDR reported.

A high-speed ICE train with its doors open could be seen at the platform after the incident.

Railway operator Deutsche Bahn said it was “deeply shocked” by what had happened.

Four tracks at the station were closed in the evening, and some long-distance trains were delayed or diverted.

Hamburg is Germany‘s second biggest city, with the train station being a hub for local, regional and long-distance trains.

World

Mum of emaciated baby in Gaza says ‘I lost my husband… I don’t want to lose her’

Published

10 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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Mum of emaciated baby in Gaza says 'I lost my husband... I don't want to lose her'

In mid-May, the World Health Organisation assessed that there were “nearly half a million people in a catastrophic situation of hunger, acute malnutrition, starvation, illness and death”.

“This is one of the world’s worst hunger crises, unfolding in real time,” its report concluded.

Warning: This article contains images of an emaciated child which some readers may find distressing

Israel‘s decision this week to reverse the siege and allow “a basic level of aid” into Gaza should help ease the immediate crisis.

But the number of aid trucks getting in, so far fewer than 100 per day, is considered dramatically too few by aid organisations working in Gaza, and the United Nations accuses Israel of continuing to block vital items.

Israel-Gaza latest: Gaza enduring ‘atrocious death and destruction’, UN boss warns

“Strict quotas are being imposed on the goods we distribute, along with unnecessary delay procedures,” said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres in New York on Friday.

“Essentials, including fuel, shelter, cooking gas and water purification supplies, are prohibited. Nothing has reached the besieged north.”

Nineteen of Gaza’s hospitals remain operational, all of them are overwhelmed with the number of patients and a lack of supplies.

“Today, we receive between 300 to 500 cases daily, with approximately 10% requiring admission. This volume of inpatient cases far exceeds the capacity of Rantisi hospital, as the facility is not equipped to accommodate such large numbers,” Jall al Barawi, a doctor at the hospital, told us.

At least 94% of the hospitals have sustained some damage, some considerable, according to the UN.

Paramedic crews are close to running out of fuel to drive ambulances.

The lack of food, after an 11-week blockade, has left thousands malnourished and increasingly vulnerable to surviving injuries or recovering from other conditions.

Children are the worst affected.

Our team in Gaza filmed with baby Aya at the Rantisi hospital in northern Gaza. She is now three months old and dangerously thin.

Her skin stretches over her cheekbones and eye sockets on her gaunt, pale face. Her nappy is too big for her emaciated little body.

Lethal spiral

Her mother Sundush, who is only 19 herself, cannot get enough food to produce breastmilk. Baby formula is scarce.

Aya, like so many other young children, cannot get the vital nutrition she needs to grow and develop.

It’s a lethal spiral.

“My daughter was born at a normal weight, 3.5kg,” Sundush tells us.

“But as the war went on, her weight dropped significantly. I would breastfeed her, she’d get diarrhoea. I tried formula – same result. With the borders closed and no food coming in, I can’t eat enough to give her the nutrients she needs.”

“I brought her to the hospital for treatment, but the care she needs isn’t available.

“The doctor said her condition is very serious. I really don’t want to lose her, because I lost my husband and she’s all I have left of him. I don’t want to lose her.”

Some of the aid entering Gaza now is being looted. It is hard to know whether that is by Hamas or desperate civilians. Maybe a combination of the two.

The lack of aid creates an atmosphere of desperation, which eventually leads to a breakdown in security as everyone fights to secure food for themselves and their families.

Only by alleviating the desperation can the security situation improve, and the risk of famine abate.