Indyref2: The four possible outcomes as Scotland awaits Supreme Court’s ruling

Published

3 years ago

November 23, 2022

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The intense discussion over Scotland’s future is reaching another, major milestone.

Politicians on both sides of Scotland’s independence debate are waiting with bated breath for the judgment from the Supreme Court on whether the Scottish parliament has the power to legislate for a second referendum without the approval of Westminster.

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Five judges – who have spent the last month examining 8,000 pages of legal arguments – are set to deliver their determination at 9.45am today.

There are four possible outcomes.

Scottish government wins

If the Scottish government wins, activists say it would essentially trigger the beginning of a referendum campaign.

It would allow Nicola Sturgeon to table the draft referendum bill at the Scottish parliament, where it would pass because the majority of MSPs are independence supporters.

An emboldened first minister would demand renewed talks with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to seek the “gold standard” agreement similar to 2014.

It is likely these talks would be fraught.

UK government wins

The second scenario is the court sides with the UK government and rules consent is needed from Westminster to re-run a referendum.

Downing Street would feel its position has been vindicated, but Ms Sturgeon is likely to argue it is an attack on democracy and “proves” Scotland is “trapped in an unequal union”.

The first minister has been clear that she will use the next general election on the single issue of whether Scotland should become independent.

Her ministers say it would be a “de-facto” referendum; their opponents say they will boycott any such scenario.

Court makes no ruling

Another possible outcome is the court decides it is unable to rule on a Holyrood-created referendum because the planned legislation is still in draft form.

Court gives a view – even if premature

And even though UK government lawyers urged the judges to hold back on ruling on hypothetical scenarios, they might decide to offer a view to clear things up once and for all.

How did we get here?

In the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum, the former first minister Alex Salmond and then prime minister David Cameron signed an official agreement to allow the vote to take place.

The eventual outcome was Scotland voting to stay in the United Kingdom.

Since then, Ms Sturgeon’s SNP government has won every Scottish election and put a referendum commitment in each manifesto.

Ms Sturgeon argued, among other issues, that Scotland was “dragged” out of the EU despite voting to remain.

She insists her party has a mandate to test the electorate on the question of independence on 19 October 2023.

However, this time the Conservative government at Westminster is not agreeing to a second vote.

Successive prime ministers have said the 2014 vote was decisive, and the SNP should instead focus on improving domestic challenges in education and the health service.

Why this ruling matters

There has been a deadlock between Holyrood and London for years.

The political stand-off landed in the Supreme Court in October, where the Scottish government sought clarity on Edinburgh holding a vote without the consent of London.

It argued any referendum would be “entirely advisory” with “no legal consequences”.

UK government lawyers insisted it was crystal clear Holyrood does not hold the power for a second vote, and urged judges to throw out the case.

They argued it would be “premature” to rule on something which is only a proposed bill at this stage.

The Supreme Court’s role is to look at the matter only from a legal perspective.

It cannot be underestimated how important this ruling is because nearly every day-to-day issue in Scotland is seen through the prism of the constitution.

It is arguably the biggest political elephant in the room, lingering over domestic debate.

Almost every poll suggests Scots are split down the middle on the future of the country, and it’s unclear whether this judgment will help settle the matter.

World

Riot police clash with protesters calling for end to Serbian president’s rule

Published

3 hours ago

June 29, 2025

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Riot police clash with protesters calling for end to Serbian president's rule

Serbian riot police have clashed with anti-government protesters calling for snap elections and an end to the 12-year rule of President Aleksandar Vucic.

The protest by tens of thousands of demonstrators was held in Belgrade on Saturday after months of persistent demonstrations led by Serbia‘s university students that have rattled Mr Vucic’s grip on power.

The crowd chanted “We want elections!” as they filled the capital’s central Slavija Square and several streets around it.

Students gave speeches. One, who didn’t give her name, said: “Elections are a clear way out of the social crisis caused by the deeds of the government, which is undoubtedly against the interests of their own people.

“Today, on June 28 2025, we declare the current authorities illegitimate.”

Tensions were high before and during the gathering.

Riot police had been deployed around government buildings, parliament and nearby Pionirski Park, where hundreds of Mr Vucic’s loyalists from across the country have been camping for months.

As the protest ended in the evening, some demonstrators threw bottles, rocks and flares at the police who were preventing the crowd from approaching Pionirski Park and confronting Mr Vucic’s backers.

Skirmishes between riot officers and groups of protesters lasted for several hours, with police firing tear gas to disperse crowds in several locations across Belgrade’s city centre.

Police detained several dozen protesters, while six officers were reported injured in the clashes, Dragan Vasiljevic, the director of police, told a news conference late on Saturday.

Responding to the violence, President Vucic said in an Instagram post: “Serbia always wins in the end.”

University students have been a key force behind nationwide demonstrations that started after a renovated rail station canopy collapsed, killing 16 people in November last year.

Many blamed the concrete roof crash on government corruption and negligence in state infrastructure projects, leading to recurring protests.

President Vucic and his right-wing Serbian Progressive Party have repeatedly refused the demand for an early parliamentary vote and accused protesters of planning to spur violence on orders from abroad, which they have not specified.

A former extreme nationalist, Mr Vucic has become increasingly authoritarian since coming to power more than a decade ago. He formally says he wants Serbia to join the European Union, but critics say he has stifled democratic freedoms and strengthened ties with Russia and China.

While demonstrations have shrunk in recent weeks, the large showing for Saturday’s rally suggested that the resolve persists, despite relentless pressure and after nearly eight months of almost daily protests.

Serbian police, who are tightly controlled by Mr Vucic’s government, said 36,000 people were present at the start of Saturday’s protest.

An independent monitoring group that records public gatherings said a total of around 140,000 people were in attendance.

Serbia’s presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2027.

World

Thousands defy ban to join Pride march in Budapest

Published

12 hours ago

June 28, 2025

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Thousands defy ban to join Pride march in Budapest

If Hungary’s authorities thought banning this year’s Pride march would keep people off the streets, they were wrong.

Thousands turned out in Budapest, defying a law which said LGBTQ+ events like this should be cancelled to protect children.

The crowd was determined to fight for their rights.

“This is a special march, not just because it was the 30th, but also because it was banned,” said Orsi, who proudly wore a rainbow headband and waved a rainbow flag.

“I mean that’s all the more reason to go out on the street and show that Budapest and Hungary is a place where everybody is welcome, where love is equal,” she added.

Attendees had been warned that just being there could mean a 500 euro fine or prison time for the organisers.

They were told police would use facial recognition cameras to identify them, but they didn’t care.

Orsi said it was worth a fine.

Leonas had travelled from Poland to show his support and was also happy to take the risk.

“LGBT rights are attacked across the whole world, and we need to defend each other and work with each other,” he said.

Viktor Orban’s government has repeatedly pitched family values against LGBTQ+ rights.

“The mother is a woman, the father is a man and leave our kids alone,” he told conservative audiences in the past.

He says he is protecting Hungary’s Christian values, but critics say this is just part of a wider attack on democracy which has happened during his 15 years in control.

The Pride ban is just the latest targeting of LGBTQ+ communities.

In 2020, the country abolished its legal recognition of transgender people, and in 2021, politicians passed a law banning the depiction of homosexuality to under-18s.

While many were outraged by the attempt to cancel the Pride march, a small number of far-right activists organised demonstrations to show their support:

“Hungary and the Hungarian nation don’t want the aggressive LGBTQ+ propaganda. They are dangerous for our families, they are dangerous for our kids,” said Gabor Kelemen, a member of the 64 Counties Youth Movement.

However, the packed streets showed many disagree.

At one point, as far as the eye could see, the march snaked through streets and across the city’s bridges. The sound of drums and whistles mixing with gay anthems blaring out of speakers.

The organisers said they believed this will be the largest Pride march ever in Budapest.

The crowd was eclectic, with Hungarians from different communities joining a demonstration which many believe is now part of a fight for Hungary’s future.

“This is not only about the complexity of Pride, not only about love or equality… for Hungarians, it’s about sticking together, supporting each other, showing the government that we believe in a different kind of Hungary. We believe in freedom, we believe in democracy,” said activist Adam Kanicsar.

Despite the ban, today Pride attendees were celebrating a victory. But make no mistake, many in Hungary do not support the parade or what they see as an attack on traditional values.

Next year, the country will hold a general election, a vote which will expose how divided Hungary really is.

World

Chants of ‘death to America’ at funeral for Iranian military commanders and scientists

Published

12 hours ago

June 28, 2025

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Chants of 'death to America' at funeral for Iranian military commanders and scientists

Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Tehran to mourn top military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Iran’s 12-day war with Israel.

State-run Press TV said the event – dubbed the “funeral procession of the Martyrs of Power” – was held for 60 people, including four women and four children.

It said at least 16 scientists and 10 senior commanders were among the dead, including head of the Revolutionary Guard General Hossein Salami and the head of the guard’s ballistic missile programme, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

Their coffins were driven to Azadi Square on trucks adorned with their pictures as well as rose petals and flowers, as crowds waved Iranian flags.

Chants of “death to America” and “death to Israel” could be heard.

Attending the funeral were Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior figures, including Ali Shamkhani who was seriously wounded during the fighting and is an adviser to Iran‘s supreme leader.

There was no immediate sign of the supreme leader in the state broadcast of the funeral.

Iran’s president later thanked people for turning out.

“From the bottom of my heart, I thank you dear people,” Mr Pezeshkian wrote on social media.

“With love, you bid farewell to the martyrs of our homeland, and our voice of unity reached the ears of the world.”

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi called the deaths “hard and painful”.

Seemingly referencing the recent airstrikes, he added: “Institutions and structures, however important and valuable, return with new glory and greater strength over time, even if it takes years.”

Israel, the only Middle Eastern country widely believed to have nuclear weapons, said its attacks on Iran aimed to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons.

The US joined in by launching strikes on three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran, which Donald Trump said left them “obliterated”, however the exact extent of the damage remains unclear.

Iran denies having a nuclear weapons programme and the UN nuclear watchdog, which carries out inspections in Iran, has said it has “no credible indication” of an active, coordinated weapons project.

Over almost two weeks of fighting, Israel claimed it killed around 30 Iranian commanders and 11 nuclear scientists, before a ceasefire began on Tuesday.