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Royal Mail workers are beginning a 48-hour strike that the retail sector warns could cripple the Black Friday discount shopping season.

The strike action is being taken nationwide by 115,000 staff represented by the Communication Workers Union (CWU).

University lecturers and teaching staff are also walking out on the first of three days of strikes – affecting an estimated 2.5 million students.

Around 70,000 members of the University and College Union (UCU) will strike today and Friday, and again next Wednesday, in a dispute over pay, pensions and contracts.

The union has warned of escalated action in the new year if the row is not resolved.

Scotland’s first national schools strike since the 1980s is also taking place over pay – with today’s one-day action by members of the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS) expected to shut the majority of schools across the country.

The Royal Mail action is the latest stoppage in a long-running, and increasingly bitter, dispute over pay and the company’s modernisation plans.

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The CWU rejected Royal Mail’s “best and final” offer on Wednesday.

The walkouts are deliberately timed to coincide with the core pre-Christmas shopping season – a crucial earnings generator for Royal Mail – as strikes will also hit 30 November and 1 December, affecting Cyber Monday deliveries.

More strikes are planned for 9, 11, 14, 15, 23 and 24 of December.

Retail intelligence firm Springboard has forecast a busy few days ahead as cash-strapped shoppers look to bag some bargains in the midst of the cost of living crisis.

It predicted that visits to retail venues on Black Friday will be 12.8% higher than on Black Friday 2021.

Fears of disrupted deliveries could force more bargain hunters towards stores rather than online shops.

The eBay marketplace said a survey of its small business members showed that half saw the impact of the Royal Mail walkout as “disastrous” for demand.

Ebay
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An eBay survey found 89% of sellers expected a negative impact on sales

eBay’s UK general manager, Murray Lambell, warned: “The UK boasts one of the world’s most sophisticated ecommerce economies, with small businesses thriving by scaling up their retail operations online.

“But industrial action risks creating chaos at the worst time for businesses and families.

“Astronomical energy prices, rising interest rates, and the blowback from political unrest has made it incredibly challenging for small businesses to operate right now.

“Adding industrial action, which is causing widespread disruption to deliveries and sales, at the most important time of year for trading, risks being the nail in the coffin for many small businesses.”

Michelle Ovens, founder of Small Business Britain, said: “Small businesses are under incredible pressure right now, with every area of business under strain and cash-flow a huge problem.

“The widespread disruption caused by postal strikes will jeopardise a core sales channel for many small businesses during the critical peak period, when every sale counts.

“We need to be doing all we can to support these businesses to recover and grow, and minimise obstacles where possible, not place them under further duress.”

Read more:

Government ‘not in a position to give inflation pay rises’
Civil servants to go on strike – affecting ports, borders and transport

On the bigger picture, Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Retailers will be working closely with their delivery providers on contingency plans to ensure customers can get the goods they need, especially on Black Friday and the run up to Christmas which is so important to consumers and retail businesses during this very difficult year.”

The CWU argues that Royal Mail’s proposals mean it is fighting for the very survival of the company as we know it.

It claims the terms on offer would turn Royal Mail into a “gig economy-style parcel courier, reliant on casual labour”.

Royal Mail says it must modernise to survive.

It has sought to be excused its requirement for letter deliveries on Saturdays and wants to be able to deliver more profitable parcels seven days a week.

It says the strikes to date have cost it £100m.

Royal Mail’s parent firm IDS says that without a deal, it could carve the UK operation from IDS and has threatened thousands of job losses on top of 6,000 already out for consultation.

The union conducted a vote of no confidence in Royal Mail chief executive Simon Thompson this week.

He said of the company’s offer on Wednesday: “Talks have lasted for seven months and we have made numerous improvements and two pay offers, which would now see up to a 9% pay increase over 18 months alongside a host of other enhancements. This is our best and final offer.

“Negotiations involve give and take, but it appears that the CWU’s approach is to just take. We want to reach a deal, but time is running out for the CWU to change their position and avoid further damaging strike action tomorrow.”

CWU general secretary Dave Ward responded: “We are disappointed that instead of reaching a compromise to avoid major disruption, Royal Mail have chosen to pursue such an aggressive strategy.

“We will not accept that 115,000 Royal Mail workers – the people who kept us connected during the pandemic, and made millions in profit for bosses and shareholders – take such a devastating blow to their livelihoods.

“We urge every member of the public to stand with their postie, and back them like never before.”

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Visma owners close to picking banks for £16bn London float

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Visma owners close to picking banks for £16bn London float

The owners of Visma, one of Europe’s biggest software companies, are close to hiring bankers for a £16bn flotation that would rank among the London market’s biggest for years.

Sky News understands that Visma’s board and shareholders have convened a beauty parade of investment banks in the last fortnight ahead of an initial public offering (IPO) likely to take place in 2026.

Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are understood to be among those in contention for the top roles on the deal, City insiders said on Friday.

Several banks are expected to be appointed as global coordinators on the IPO as soon as this month.

Visma is a Norwegian company which supplies accounting, payroll, HR and other business software to well over one million small business customers.

It has grown at a rapid rate in recent years, both organically and through scores of acquisitions, and has seen its profitability and valuation rise substantially during that period.

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The business is now valued at about €19bn (£16.4bn) and is partly owned by a number of sovereign wealth funds and other private equity firms.

The majority of the company is owned by Hg, the London-based private equity firm which has backed a string of spectacularly successful companies in the software industry.

Visma’s owners’ decision to pick the UK ahead of competition from Amsterdam represents a welcome boost to the City amid ongoing questions about the attractiveness of the London stock market to international companies.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, used last month’s speech at Mansion House to launch a taskforce aimed at generating additional IPO activity in the UK.

Spokespeople claiming to represent Visma at Kekst, a communications firm, did not respond to a series of enquiries about the IPO appointments.

Hg also failed to respond to a request for comment.

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Carlyle to seize control of online retailer Very Group from Barclay family

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Carlyle to seize control of online retailer Very Group from Barclay family

The American investment giant Carlyle is preparing to take control of Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers, in a deal that will end the Barclay family’s long tenure at another major UK company.

Sky News has learnt that Carlyle, which is the biggest lender to Very Group’s immediate parent company, could assume ownership of the retailer as soon as October under the terms of its financing arrangements.

On Friday, sources said that Carlyle was expected to hold further talks in the coming weeks with fellow creditors including IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based vehicle which assumed part of Very Group’s debts in a complex deal related to ownership of the Telegraph newspaper titles.

Carlyle will probably end up holding a majority stake in Very Group, which has about 4.5 million customers, once it exercises a ‘step-in right’ which effectively converts its debt into equity ownership, the sources said.

Very Group – which is chaired by the former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi – borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, earlier this year as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.

Precise details of the company’s capital and ownership structure will be thrashed out before the change of control rights are triggered at the beginning of October.

The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.

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Carlyle, which declined to comment, may hold onto the business for a further period before looking to offload it.

IMI is also likely to end up with an equity stake or a preferred position in the recapitalised company’s debt structure, sources added.

Prospective bidders for Very Group were expected to be courted on the basis of its technology-driven financial services arm as well as the core retail offering which sells everything from electrical goods to fashion.

Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.

Very Group – previously known as Shop Direct – is one of the UK’s biggest online shopping businesses, owning the Very and Littlewoods brands and employing 3,700 people.

It boasts well over £2bn in annual sales, with about one-fifth of that generated by its Very Finance consumer lending arm.

Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at July’s general election.

He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for decades.

In the 39 weeks to 29 March, Very Group reported a 3.8% fall in revenue to £1.67bn, which it said included “a decrease in Littlewoods revenue of 15.1%, reflecting the ongoing managed decline of this business”.

Nevertheless, it said sales in its home and sports categories were performing strongly.

IMI’s position is expected to be pivotal to the talks about the future of the business, given Abu Dhabi’s status as an important global backer of buyout, credit and infrastructure funds such as those raised and managed by Carlyle.

The UAE vehicle is expected to emerge from the protracted saga over the Telegraph’s ownership with a 15% stake in the newspapers.

Under the original deal struck in 2023, RedBird and IMI paid a total of £1.2bn to refinance the Barclay family’s debts to Lloyds Banking Group, with half tied to the media assets and the other half – solely funded by IMI – secured against other family assets including part of Very Group’s debt pile.

The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service.

A spokesman for Very Group declined to comment, while IMI also declined to comment.

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Rachel Reeves said this flagship policy would raise money – it may end up doing the opposite

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Why Rachel Reeves may want to rethink one of her pivotal policies

What do we do about the non-doms? 

It’s a question more than a handful of people have been asking themselves at the Treasury lately.

Politics Hub: Follow latest updates

It had seemed simple enough. In her first budget as chancellor, Rachel Reeves promised a crackdown on the non-dom regime, which for the past 200 years has allowed residents to declare they are permanently domiciled in another country for tax purposes.

Under the scheme, non-doms, some of the richest people in the country, were not taxed on their foreign incomes.

Then that all changed.

Standing at the despatch box in October last year, the chancellor said: “I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your tax here. So today, I can confirm we will abolish the non-dom tax regime and remove the outdated concept of domicile from the tax system from April 2025.”

The hope was that the move would raise £3.8bn for the public purse. However, there are signs that the non-doms are leaving in such great numbers that the policy could end up costing the UK investment, jobs and, of course, the tax that the non-doms already pay on their UK earnings.

If the numbers don’t add up, this tax-raising policy could morph into an act of self-harm.

Rachel Reeves has plenty to ponder ahead of her next budget. File pic: Reuters
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Rachel Reeves has plenty to ponder ahead of her next budget. File pic: Reuters

With the budget already under strain, a poor calculation would be costly financially. The alternative, a U-turn, could be expensive for other reasons, eroding faith in a chancellor who has already been on a turbulent ride.

So, how worried should she be?

The data on the number of non-doms in the country is published with a considerable lag. So, it will be a while before we know the full impact of this policy.

However, there is much uncertainty about how this group will behave.

While the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the policy could generate £3.8bn for the government over the next five years, assuming between 12 and 25% of them leave, it admitted it lacked confidence in those numbers.

Worryingly for ministers, there are signs, especially in London, that the exodus could be greater.

Property sales

Analysis from the property company LonRes, shows there were 35.8% fewer transactions in May for properties in London’s most exclusive postcodes compared with a year earlier and 33.5% fewer than the pre-pandemic average.

Estate agents blame falling demand from non-dom buyers.

This comes as no surprise to Magda Wierzycka, a South African billionaire businesswoman, who runs an investment fund in London. She herself is threatening to leave the UK unless the government waters down its plans.

Magda Wierzycka, from Narwan nondom VT
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Magda Wierzycka, from Narwan nondom VT

“Non-doms are leaving, as we speak, and the problem with numbers is that the consequences will only become known in the next 12 to 18 months,” she said.

“But I have absolutely no doubt, based on people I know who have already left, that the consequences would be quite significant.

“It’s not just about the people who are leaving that everyone is focusing on. It’s also about the people who are not coming, people who would have come, set up businesses, created jobs, they’re not coming. They take one look at what has happened here, and they’re not coming.”

Lack of options for non-doms

But where will they go? Britain was unusual in offering such an attractive regime. Bar a few notable exceptions, such as Italy, most countries run residency-based tax systems, meaning people pay tax to the country in which they live.

This approach meant many non-doms escaped paying tax on their foreign income altogether because they didn’t live in those countries where they earned their foreign income.

In any case, widespread double taxation treaties mean people are generally not taxed twice, although they may have to pay the difference.

In one important sense, Magda is right. It could take a while before the consequences are fully known. There are few firm data points for us to draw conclusions from right now, but the past could be illustrative.

Read more on Sky News:
Reeves warned over tax rises
What is a wealth tax?

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Are taxes going to rise?

The non-dom regime has been through repeated reform. George Osborne changed the system back in 2017 to limit it to just 15 years. Then Jeremy Hunt announced the Tories would abolish the regime altogether in one of his final budgets.

Following the 2017 reforms there was an initial shock, but the numbers stabilised, falling just 5% after a few years. The data suggests there was an initial exodus of people who were probably considering leaving anyway, but those who remained – and then arrived – were intent on staying in the UK.

So, should the government look through the numbers and hold its nerve? Not necessarily.

Have Labour crossed a red line?

Stuart Adam, a senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the response could be far greater this time because of some key changes under Labour.

The government will no longer allow non-doms to protect money held in trusts, so 40% inheritance tax will be due on their estates. For many, that is a red line.

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‘Rachel Reeves would hate what you just said’

Mr Adam said: “The 2017 reform deliberately built in what you might call a loophole, a way to avoid paying a lot more tax through the use of existing offshore trusts. That was a route deliberately left open to enable many people to avoid the tax.

“So it’s not then surprising that they didn’t up sticks and leave. Part of the reform that was announced last year was actually not having that kind of gap in the system to enable people to avoid the tax using trusts, and therefore you might expect to see a bigger response to the kind of reforms we’ve seen announced now, but it also means we don’t have very much idea about how big a response to expect.”

With the public finances under considerable pressure, that will offer little comfort to a chancellor who is operating on the finest of margins.

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