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Picture taken on May 3, 2022 shows a general view of Slovakia’s largest mineral oil refinery Slovnaft in Bratislava, Slovakia. (Photo by JOE KLAMAR / AFP)

Joe Klamar | Afp | Getty Images

The Group of 7 nations are in talks to cap Russian oil at $65 and $70 a barrel — but analysts say it likely won’t have a significant impact on Moscow’s oil revenues even if it’s approved.

Prices at those levels are close to what Asian markets are currently paying Russia, which are at a “big discount,” said Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of gas and LNG research, Massimo Di Odoardo.

“Those levels of discounts are certainly in line with what the discounts already are in the market … It’s something that doesn’t seem, as it is placed, like it’s going to have any effect [on Moscow] whatsoever if the price is so high.”

Russia has threatened to it will not supply oil to countries setting and endorsing the price cap.

“Given Russian oil (Urals) is trading at $60‑65/bbl, the proposed price cap is already compliant under prevailing market conditions,” said Vivek Dhar, Director of Mining and Energy Commodities research from Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

In a note on Thursday, he said that current Russian oil shipments face minimal disruption from the European Union denying shipping and insurance services.

He agreed that the discussed price cap won’t make much of a dent or deter Moscow in its war against Ukraine.

“Russia’s seaborne oil exports have increased to China, India and Turkey at the expense of advanced economies following the Ukraine war,” he added.

The oil embargo should not have a huge impact, says Wood Mackenzie

In fact, he said the price cap discussed was higher than markets were expecting.

“Oil prices finished lower overnight after the EU discussed a price cap on Russian oil between $US65‑70/bbl, a higher price range than markets expected and at levels that will reduce the risk of disruptions of EU sanctions on Russian oil shipments,” Dhar said.

There was similar skepticism over the EU’s proposed cap on natural gas prices. Several EU member states locked horns over the effectiveness of capping prices at 275 euros per megawatt hour, with some saying it’s not realistic to keep gas prices at such high levels for so long.

The bloc is seeking to stop gas prices from soaring sky-high as consumers are already struggling with rising cost-of-living.

G-7 policymakers have a tough balancing act to tread.

It seems to me like [the G-7] will err on the side of caution — setting it high rather than low to avoid worsening the inflationary spiral.

Pavel Molchanov

Energy analyst at Raymond James

If prices are set too high, they will be meaningless and risk having no impact on Russia — but if the price cap is too low, it could lead to a physical reduction in the supply of Russian oil onto the global market, said Raymond James’ energy analyst Pavel Molchanov.

A lower price cap “means more inflation, more consumer unhappiness, and more monetary tightening,” Molchanov pointed out.

“It seems to me like [the G-7] will err on the side of caution — setting it high rather than low to avoid worsening the inflationary spiral.”

Last week, official data showed U.K. inflation jumped to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, higher than expected, as energy prices, among other factors, continued to squeeze households and businesses.

Downside risks to current forecasts

If EU members agree to the proposed cap, Dhar expects the price of oil to fall below $95 per barrel for the last quarter of 2022.

Oil prices were fractionally higher on Friday afternoon Asia time. Brent crude futures inched higher by 0.35% to stand at $85.64 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 0.55% to $78.37 per barrel.

“Our price forecast assumes EU sanctions accompanied by a price cap on Russian oil will result in enough supply disruption to offset ongoing global growth concerns.”

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The European bloc has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia since since Moscow began its unprovoked war on neighboring Ukraine in late February.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast by $10 to $100 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2022, citing rising Covid concerns in China and lack of clarity over the Group of Seven nations’ plan to cap Russian oil prices.

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Siemens Energy shares jump 13% after guidance raise and leadership change at embattled wind turbine unit

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Siemens Energy shares jump 13% after guidance raise and leadership change at embattled wind turbine unit

Siemens Energy shares soared as much as 13% on Wednesday after the German renewables firm raised its forecast for the year and announced that the CEO of its troubled wind turbine unit will be replaced amid “comprehensive restructuring measures.”

It said in a statement that Jochen Eickholt at Siemens Gamesa informed the board that he will step down from his position as CEO by mutual agreement on July 31, and be succeeded by Vinod Philip.

“In a very difficult situation at Siemens Gamesa, Jochen laid the central foundations for the urgently needed reorganization and new start within Siemens Energy. It is only fair to emphasize that the causes of the quality problems did not fall under his tenure as CEO,” said Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch in a statement. 

It said that Gamesa had initiated comprehensive restructuring measures and “steps for long-term strategic development” in order to boost operating margins.

Strong demand for power grid equipment amid the company’s “success” in stabilizing the wind business led Siemens on Wednesday to raise its forecast for the year.

Power-generating Siemens 2.37 megawatt (MW) wind turbines are seen at the Ocotillo Wind Energy Facility California, May 29, 2020.

Bing Guan | Reuters

For the full year, the company now expects a comparable revenue growth between 10% and 12% and a profit margin before special items between negative 1% and positive 1%. It previously forecast comparable revenue growth between 3% and 7% and a profit margin before special items between negative 2% and positive 1%.

Shares of Siemens Energy traded 11.3% higher at around 9:45 a.m. London time.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, CEO Bruch said Siemens Energy had enjoyed a “good quarter,” citing “very positive” order momentum in energy. However, he warned the company still needed to work through some quality issues.

“We are tackling the things in wind. We have been working over the last two years on a lot of things. Jochen launched a lot of the right activities in terms of this operational turnaround. We knew it was going to take years for us to really get it back on track,” Bruch said.

“Going forward, we are going to be active in onshore and offshore. We are going to focus the business on offshore more. We hammer down on the volume product in offshore,” he added.

A tough 2023

Siemens Energy suffered a rough 2023. Problems with manufacturing faults at Gamesa forced the parent company to a 4.6 billion euro ($4.94 billion) loss for the fiscal year. An investigation into quality issues was launched at the wind turbine division.

In June, during a particularly turbulent time for the stock, Siemens Energy scrapped its profit forecast and warned that the costly failures at Gamesa could drag on for years.

Siemens Energy working through wind turbine quality issues, CFO says

The wind industry has expanded rapidly over the past two decades, lowering costs to rival — and sometimes undercut — those of fossil fuels, while boosting efficiency with ever-bigger turbines and reducing reliance on state subsidies. But the issues last year led investors to worry that Gamesa’s problems might be a symptom of a wider problem for the industry.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, Siemens Energy reported a net income of 108 million euros for the last quarter and raised its outlook on “stronger growth and positive cash development.” 

— CNBC’s Elliot Smith contributed to this article.

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Rivian (RIVN) Q1 results – revenue beat, earnings miss, Q4 profit reaffirmed

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Rivian (RIVN) Q1 results – revenue beat, earnings miss, Q4 profit reaffirmed

Rivian has released its Q1 2024 results, slightly beating analyst estimates on revenue, which grew sharply year-over-year, but with wider losses than expected and only slight gross margin improvement as it still hopes to turn some quarterly profit by the end of the year.

Electric truck maker Rivian announced its results after the bell today, capping off a quarter that has seen difficulty for some EV makers.

Rivian previously announced that deliveries remained flat between Q4 and Q1 at 13,588 units, but were up 71% since the same quarter last year. Rivian says it achieved 5.1% market share in US EVs in Q1, quite a feat for a company that sells only upmarket vehicles, with the R1S being the best-selling EV over $70k

Q1 tends to be a down quarter for vehicle deliveries, so year-over-year numbers are often used – though with EV makers experiencing rapid growth, quarterly numbers can still be useful.

Analysts estimated that Rivian would bring in $1.175 billion in revenue this quarter, with a loss of $1.15 per share.

Rivian’s actual results, announced today, show that it beat the analysts with $1.204 billion in revenue, but had wider losses than expected at -$1.48 per share. Revenue improved by 82% year-over-year. Rivian ended the quarter with $7,858 billion in cash, down from $9,368 billion at the end of Q4 2023.

Gross margin on vehicles improved slightly, with a loss of $38,784 per vehicle as opposed to $43,372 per vehicle in the previous quarter. The gross margin improvement shows progress, but gross margins are still worse than they were in Q2 and Q3 of last year, at -$32k and -$30k respectively.

However, Rivian has just completed a plant shutdown, which started on April 5, and thus isn’t captured in this quarter’s results. The plant reopened on May 1.

This shutdown was focused on retooling to improve margins, and Rivian says it could increase efficiency by 30%. Rivian sees “significant progress” on cost optimization already, and says that it expects slight positive gross profit in Q4 of this year. We’ll expect to hear more about how the shutdown went on the company’s earnings call at 2PM PDT/5PM EDT today.

It’s also the first earnings call since Rivian’s R2/R3 unveiling event. These are Rivian’s two upcoming vehicles, with which it plans to move downmarket and into higher volume spaces. The R2 will start around $45k in the first half of 2026, while the R3 timeline and cost have not yet been announced.

Along with that event, Rivian announced that it would move production forward for the R2, by building it at its existing plant in Normal, IL, rather than a planned future plant in Georgia. This will bring Normal’s production numbers up to 215k units of total capacity per year across all products.

The main reason for this is to reduce capex in the short-term by $2.25 billion, saving the company cash in a time where fundraising is more difficult than it has been in the past. Rivian also recently cut 1% of jobs in service of these cost savings.

As part of today’s release, Rivian also reduced capex guidance for 2024 to $1.2 billion, down from $1.75 billion. It expects to save money in 2025 and 2026 from the decision to move R2 production to Normal, as well.

Otherwise, Rivian reaffirmed its full year 2024 guidance of 57,000 units production and a $2.7 billion loss, though it expects slight gross profit in Q4.

Rivian (RIVN) closed down 0.77% today, after opening high in response to rumors about a partnership with Apple, but giving back the gains throughout the day. RIVN is currently down 2-3% in aftermarket trading as we await the earnings call, where we expect a question (and likely non-answer) about the Apple rumors.

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BYD’s home city in China now has more supercharging plugs than gas pumps

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BYD's home city in China now has more supercharging plugs than gas pumps

Shenzhen, the home of Chinese EV giant BYD, says it’s become the first in China to have more supercharging plugs than gas pumps.

As Electrek reported in April, BYD received direct government subsidies of “at least” $3.7 billion to grow its EV business and undercut the competition with aggressively low pricing. So all those cheap EVs need to be fast-charged, and what better place to expand than BYD’s home city?

In June 2023, Shenzhen unveiled its first fully liquid-cooled supercharging prototype station as part of its “City of Supercharging” plan, in which it set a goal to build as many supercharging stations as gas stations by 2025. And these “superchargers” aren’t just DC fast chargers – they can charge EVs to 80% in just 10 minutes.

Shenzhen had 362 supercharging stations as of April 30, according to the latest data released by the city, but it didn’t say how many gas pumps there are. They’ve been conveniently sited in commercial complexes, bus stops, and industrial parks.

According to data from the Southern Power Grid Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau, Shenzhen’s EV charging volume reached 670 million kilowatt-hours in Q1 2024, an 11% increase year-over-year. So, the city has to plan carefully so as not to overburden the grid as both EVs and superchargers rapidly come online.

The city of 12.5 million people has been an electrification leader for some time; in 2017, it completely electrified its bus fleet with more than 16,000 electric buses, and its taxis became electrified in 2019.

China leads the world in renewables and EV growth, but it’s also the No 1 emitter of harmful greenhouse gases.

Read more: In 2023, investment in clean energy manufacturing shot up 70% from 2022


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