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With two weeks left, there’s eight teams for four spots.

That’s the overly simplified version of the College Football Playoff landscape right now, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Of course, the positions of those eight teams are wildly different from one another, so that’s where we’re going to rely on the Predictor — which uses FPI projections and predicts the committee’s selection process based on its past behavior — to answer key questions about the playoff race as we near the finish line.


Who gets in if everyone wins out?

Everyone, in this case, is: Georgia, Ohio State (after beating an 11-0 Michigan in Week 13), TCU, Clemson and USC.

That would make three undefeated slam dunks in the first teams listed above and result in a battle for the final spot between Michigan, USC and Clemson.

This is close! And it would be a fascinating decision for the committee. Here’s where the Playoff Predictor lands:

Michigan: 52%
USC: 31%
Clemson: 23%

(Note: those numbers add up to more than 100% on the off-chance the committee decides to leave out TCU).

So why does the model lean toward one-loss Michigan over the two one-loss conference champs? Two key factors: résumé and team quality.

Outside of the conference championship, we project that an 11-1 Michigan would actually have a slightly superior Strength of Record than a 12-1 USC or 12-1 Clemson, though it is exceptionally close with the Trojans and could flip. Michigan is also, in FPI’s mind, the best team of the three — by a lot. The Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in FPI, while Clemson and USC trail at Nos. 9 and 14, respectively.

So from the model’s perspective it sees a team with the better FPI and SOR, and that’s usually the team that gets the better ranking. But the conference championship muddies the waters, which is why this isn’t clear at all.

What if Michigan, instead of Ohio State, ends up 13-0 in the above scenario?

That sets up what should be a fairly easy selection process for the committee, with Georgia, Michigan and TCU virtual locks and Ohio State as a heavy favorite to land that last place.

Ohio State: 79%
USC: 16%
Clemson: 14%

The Buckeyes are the No. 2 ranked team in FPI and also would have a slightly stronger 11-1 SOR than an 11-1 Michigan, meaning Ohio State would also be ahead of USC and Clemson in the résumé metric.

What happens if Michigan or Ohio State lose in the Big Ten championship game?

This is too unlikely for us to do a full-blown scenario, but I think we can get the general idea by just plugging in, for starters, an Ohio State loss in that game — against whoever the opponent may be (Iowa, Purdue and Illinois all still have a chance to win the Big Ten West).

According to the Predictor, the Buckeyes would still have a 94% chance to get into the playoff in this scenario. That would drop a little bit if Clemson, TCU and USC all won out, but it still would be awfully likely Ohio State gets in.

For Michigan, it’s a pretty similar story: A loss in the Big Ten championship game — which the Wolverines can only get to by beating Ohio State first — still gives them an 86% chance at the playoff. Again, that would drop a little bit if everything else went against them elsewhere, but they’d probably still get in.

Is a one-loss TCU finished?

The Predictor says: not necessarily, particularly if the loss is to Iowa State, and then TCU goes on to win the Big 12 championship. At that point, TCU would be a one-loss conference champion with an average strength of record rank of 2.7. That’s the résumé of a playoff team! Independent of results elsewhere, the Predictor says TCU would have a 71% shot at the playoff in this spot, which I think might be a bit of a shock.

This drops to 64% if Clemson and USC also win out. But from the model’s perspective, TCU would have clearly the best résumé of those three teams at that point.

Is there any chance Alabama sneaks in?

*Whispers* Yes, there’s a chance.

We mentioned there are eight teams with a shot at the playoff at the top and have talked about six of them thus far. The seventh is LSU, which can get in by winning out. The eighth is Alabama. Consider this scenario:

• Georgia wins the SEC

• Ohio State wins out

• Clemson, TCU and USC all lose in conference championship games

In this situation there are three teams virtually certain to get in: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Who else? The Predictor leans TCU over Alabama 46% to 39%, but it’s close! And if we give TCU a loss against Iowa State, too, then Alabama would be the favorite for that fourth spot.

Is the Predictor overrating Alabama’s chances to reach the CFP at 12% right now? Probably by a little bit. But is it impossible the Crimson Tide get in? It is not.

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Astros say Hader won’t throw for about 3 weeks

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Astros say Hader won't throw for about 3 weeks

HOUSTON — Astros All-Star closer Josh Hader will be shut down from throwing for approximately three weeks after the team announced Friday he has been diagnosed with left shoulder capsule strain.

Hader was placed on the injured list on Monday for the first time in his nine-year major league career because of a shoulder strain. Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Hader would seek a second opinion before determining a next course of action.

A six-time All-Star, Hader, who is in his second year with the Astros, is 6-2 with a 2.05 ERA and is tied for third with 28 saves in 48 appearances this season.

The Astros entered play on Friday leading the American League West by 1½ games, despite having 13 players on the injured list.

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Brewers activate rookie Misiorowski from IL

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Brewers activate rookie Misiorowski from IL

CINCINNATI — Milwaukee Brewers rookie pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has been activated from the injured list after missing about 2½ weeks with a left tibia contusion.

The move potentially clears the way for the All-Star right-hander to pitch in the NL Central-leading Brewers’ series opener Friday at Cincinnati as they attempt to earn a 13th straight victory, which would match the longest winning streak in franchise history. The Brewers won their first 13 games in 1987.

Misiorowski last pitched July 28 in an 8-4 victory over the Chicago Cubs. Misiorowski’s knee appeared to buckle in the first inning that night as he fielded a dribbler and threw wildly to first base, though he remained in the game and ended up lasting four innings.

He owns a 4-1 record and 2.70 ERA in seven starts. Misiorowski has struck out 47 batters over 33⅓ innings.

In other moves Friday, the Brewers optioned right-handed pitcher Grant Anderson to Triple-A Nashville, placed outfielder Blake Perkins on the bereavement list, put outfielder Isaac Collins on the paternity list, and recalled infielder Tyler Black and outfielder Steward Berroa from Nashville.

Anderson, 28, was 2-3 with a 3.07 ERA in 53 relief appearances with Milwaukee.

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Amid woes, Cubs focus on process, not results

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Amid woes, Cubs focus on process, not results

CHICAGO — Mired in a collective offensive slump, the Chicago Cubs are preaching sticking with the process — and not worrying about the results — as a way out of it.

The team has lost three consecutive series for the first time all season, culminating in a 2-1 defeat to the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday when the Cubs failed to push across the tying run in the eighth inning despite having runners on second and third with no outs.

“There’s a tendency to make everything sound worse than it is in our game,” manager Craig Counsell said Friday before facing the Pittsburgh Pirates. “That’s the nature of it when it’s every day.

“Things not going right is not what’s happening. I think that’s what you fall into. This is baseball that’s happening. You have to be tough enough to roll with that.”

Chicago ranks 28th in runs scored since the All-Star break after being at the top of the league for most of the first three months of the season. There’s no single culprit, as most of the top and middle of the order has struggled.

Right fielder Kyle Tucker was asked how to break out of it.

“I don’t know,” he said. “You just figure it out. We play so many games, you just got to get through it at times.”

Tucker is hitting .195 since July 1 with just one home run and four extra-base hits. After jamming his right ring finger on a slide in early June, he finished the month strong but has gone backward since.

The finger is “fine,” Tucker said.

He isn’t the only one struggling. Designated hitter Seiya Suzuki has driven in just eight runs since the break — he had 77 RBIs in the first half — while hitting .182. First baseman Michael Busch is batting .171 since the break, while left fielder Ian Happ is at .228.

But no one has struggled more of late than center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had just three hits and 15 strikeouts in August before a second-inning double Friday.

“It becomes the self-inflicted pressure when you feel like you’re not playing your part in contributing,” Crow-Armstrong said before Friday’s game. “When stuff starts to kind of pile up like that, it sucks, but it’s also baseball and I still have however many fricking weeks left this season, and it’s still a lot of time to begin to produce again.”

Counsell added: “Sticking to the things that get you results and being OK it might not happen at that exact time you want it to is the right way to be your best self. I think we have to be consistent with that. For us to focus on results is harmful, so you focus on things that contribute to us being good.”

That’s the collective feeling of the group inside the clubhouse as the Cubs continue to maintain a spot in the wild-card race, even if the division seems as if it could be slipping away. Wins are still coming — just not at the clip they were during the first half. And the club still hasn’t been swept in a three- or four-game series — one of two teams in baseball that can make that claim.

There’s still time to find that offensive groove again as the Cubs look to cut into the Milwaukee Brewers‘ lead in the division while also staving off the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card race.

“Brewers are hot,” Crow-Armstrong said. “The Reds are playing good baseball. It’s another division matchup [this weekend]. I mean, the Cubbies are the Cubbies. We’re going to go keep playing the same baseball we played all year. … It’s been an interesting two weeks, but we’re fine. I don’t think there’s any worry in the world.”

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