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With two weeks left, there’s eight teams for four spots.

That’s the overly simplified version of the College Football Playoff landscape right now, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Of course, the positions of those eight teams are wildly different from one another, so that’s where we’re going to rely on the Predictor — which uses FPI projections and predicts the committee’s selection process based on its past behavior — to answer key questions about the playoff race as we near the finish line.


Who gets in if everyone wins out?

Everyone, in this case, is: Georgia, Ohio State (after beating an 11-0 Michigan in Week 13), TCU, Clemson and USC.

That would make three undefeated slam dunks in the first teams listed above and result in a battle for the final spot between Michigan, USC and Clemson.

This is close! And it would be a fascinating decision for the committee. Here’s where the Playoff Predictor lands:

Michigan: 52%
USC: 31%
Clemson: 23%

(Note: those numbers add up to more than 100% on the off-chance the committee decides to leave out TCU).

So why does the model lean toward one-loss Michigan over the two one-loss conference champs? Two key factors: résumé and team quality.

Outside of the conference championship, we project that an 11-1 Michigan would actually have a slightly superior Strength of Record than a 12-1 USC or 12-1 Clemson, though it is exceptionally close with the Trojans and could flip. Michigan is also, in FPI’s mind, the best team of the three — by a lot. The Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in FPI, while Clemson and USC trail at Nos. 9 and 14, respectively.

So from the model’s perspective it sees a team with the better FPI and SOR, and that’s usually the team that gets the better ranking. But the conference championship muddies the waters, which is why this isn’t clear at all.

What if Michigan, instead of Ohio State, ends up 13-0 in the above scenario?

That sets up what should be a fairly easy selection process for the committee, with Georgia, Michigan and TCU virtual locks and Ohio State as a heavy favorite to land that last place.

Ohio State: 79%
USC: 16%
Clemson: 14%

The Buckeyes are the No. 2 ranked team in FPI and also would have a slightly stronger 11-1 SOR than an 11-1 Michigan, meaning Ohio State would also be ahead of USC and Clemson in the résumé metric.

What happens if Michigan or Ohio State lose in the Big Ten championship game?

This is too unlikely for us to do a full-blown scenario, but I think we can get the general idea by just plugging in, for starters, an Ohio State loss in that game — against whoever the opponent may be (Iowa, Purdue and Illinois all still have a chance to win the Big Ten West).

According to the Predictor, the Buckeyes would still have a 94% chance to get into the playoff in this scenario. That would drop a little bit if Clemson, TCU and USC all won out, but it still would be awfully likely Ohio State gets in.

For Michigan, it’s a pretty similar story: A loss in the Big Ten championship game — which the Wolverines can only get to by beating Ohio State first — still gives them an 86% chance at the playoff. Again, that would drop a little bit if everything else went against them elsewhere, but they’d probably still get in.

Is a one-loss TCU finished?

The Predictor says: not necessarily, particularly if the loss is to Iowa State, and then TCU goes on to win the Big 12 championship. At that point, TCU would be a one-loss conference champion with an average strength of record rank of 2.7. That’s the résumé of a playoff team! Independent of results elsewhere, the Predictor says TCU would have a 71% shot at the playoff in this spot, which I think might be a bit of a shock.

This drops to 64% if Clemson and USC also win out. But from the model’s perspective, TCU would have clearly the best résumé of those three teams at that point.

Is there any chance Alabama sneaks in?

*Whispers* Yes, there’s a chance.

We mentioned there are eight teams with a shot at the playoff at the top and have talked about six of them thus far. The seventh is LSU, which can get in by winning out. The eighth is Alabama. Consider this scenario:

• Georgia wins the SEC

• Ohio State wins out

• Clemson, TCU and USC all lose in conference championship games

In this situation there are three teams virtually certain to get in: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Who else? The Predictor leans TCU over Alabama 46% to 39%, but it’s close! And if we give TCU a loss against Iowa State, too, then Alabama would be the favorite for that fourth spot.

Is the Predictor overrating Alabama’s chances to reach the CFP at 12% right now? Probably by a little bit. But is it impossible the Crimson Tide get in? It is not.

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Sources: Sooners DT Stone hits transfer portal

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Sources: Sooners DT Stone hits transfer portal

Oklahoma defensive tackle David Stone entered the NCAA transfer portal Friday, sources told ESPN.

Stone, a former five-star recruit and the No. 6 overall player in the ESPN 300 for the 2024 class, made the surprising decision to enter the portal after playing in all 13 games as a true freshman with the Sooners. The 6-foot-3 313-pounder saw limited playing time, playing 88 snaps and recording 6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and 1 sack.

Stone was expected to compete for a more significant role as a sophomore, and Oklahoma coach Brent Venables recently praised him as the Sooners’ most improved defensive tackle this offseason.

The Oklahoma native finished his high school career at IMG Academy in Florida and was a significant recruiting victory for Venables and his coaching staff in August 2023. Stone chose the Sooners over Texas A&M, Oregon, Florida, Miami and Michigan State.

The SEC does not grant immediate eligibility to players who transfer within the conference during the spring transfer window, so Stone would need to sit out the 2025 season if he moves on to another SEC program.

Oklahoma returns its top three defensive tackles from 2024 in Damonic Williams, Gracen Halton and Jayden Jackson. It also added Trent Wilson, the No. 164 recruit in the ESPN 300 for 2025, as an early enrollee this spring.

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QB Browne returns to Purdue after brief UNC stint

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QB Browne returns to Purdue after brief UNC stint

Quarterback Ryan Browne has decided to transfer back to Purdue after joining North Carolina earlier this offseason.

Browne committed to rejoining the Boilermakers on Friday after entering his name in the NCAA transfer portal Wednesday.

The 6-foot-4, 210-pound redshirt sophomore started two games for Purdue in 2024 but moved on amid the program’s head coaching change and went through spring practice under new Tar Heels coach Bill Belichick.

North Carolina landed a commitment from South Alabama transfer quarterback Gio Lopez on Thursday.

Browne and freshman Bryce Baker were North Carolina’s lone scholarship quarterbacks available for spring practice and were competing with three walk-ons while sixth-year senior Max Johnson recovers from a broken leg.

Browne threw for 636 yards, rushed for 240 yards and scored four touchdowns while appearing in nine games as Hudson Card’s backup over the past two seasons at Purdue, earning starts in losses to Illinois and Oregon.

By returning to West Lafayette, Browne will get an opportunity to compete for a starting job with Arkansas transfer Malachi Singleton, Washington State transfer Evans Chuba and Bennett Meredith, a former Arizona State transfer.

The Boilermakers lost one quarterback, EJ Colson, to the transfer portal earlier this week.

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U-M’s Underwood has up-and-down spring game

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U-M's Underwood has up-and-down spring game

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood showed glimpses of the growing pains he will experience as a freshman and flashes of the promise that made him the nation’s top-rated high school football recruit in the Wolverines’ spring game Saturday.

Underwood was 12 of 26 for 187 yards with a scrimmage-ending, 88-yard pass to tight end Jalen Hoffman on a reverse flea-flicker in a 17-0 win for the Blue over the Maize.

He also recovered his fumble, had a pair of delay-of-game penalties, several errant throws – high and wide – and some dropped. Underwood lost 12 yards on two sacks and gained 17 yards on three runs.

“He did well,” coach Sherrone Moore said. “Made some really, good throws and had some things we need to clean up and get better at.”

As the Wolverines wrapped up spring football in front of about 40,000 fans at the Big House, all eyes were on Underwood and he has become comfortable with that.

“It’s just the pressure that came with my arm,” Underwood told The Detroit News earlier this spring. “I can’t stop that.”

Underwood was sacked on his first snap and his first completion went for a loss. He did throw some darts, usually in the flat, and was quick enough to escape collapsed pockets to pick up yardage with his feet.

Underwood is expected to compete with sophomore Jadyn Davis and Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene for playing time ahead of the season-opening game on Aug. 30 at home against Fresno State.

“It’s a battle,” Moore said. “It’s going to go all the way to fall camp.”

Underwood is motivated to start and kick off a legacy-building career with lofty goals.

“A couple of Heismans and at least one natty,” Underwood said last month in an interview on the Rich Eisen Show.

Underwood knows there will be people doubting he can live up to the hype.

‘He’s just a freshman. He won’t be good enough,'” Underwood said. “I might keep that chip my whole three years.”

He attended at Belleville High School, which is about 15 miles east of Ann Arbor, and flipped his commitment to Michigan after telling LSU coaches last year he intended to play there.

Tom Brady, a former Wolverine and seven-time Super Bowl winner, talked with Underwood during the school’s recruitment via FaceTime and Oracle founder Larry Ellison, one of the world’s richest people, also connected with him.

Jay Underwood told the Wall Street Journal that his son is expected to make more than $15 million at Michigan, but that doesn’t guarantee he will take the first snap next fall.

“He wants to earn everything,” Moore has said. “He doesn’t want to be given anything.”

Hoffman said Underwood has simply blended in with his teammates.

“He’s really humble, like not a big head, ego, nothing like that,” he said. “Comes into work and every day, he wants to get better every day. He’s not riding off his success in high school. He’s really trying to be one of those top players in college football.”

Underwood participated in practices with the team before it beat Alabama in a bowl game, enrolled in classes in January and gained a lot experience in 14 private practices before a public scrimmage.

“Football is football,” he told MLive.com. “School is a little bit more overwhelming now.”

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