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With two weeks left, there’s eight teams for four spots.

That’s the overly simplified version of the College Football Playoff landscape right now, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Of course, the positions of those eight teams are wildly different from one another, so that’s where we’re going to rely on the Predictor — which uses FPI projections and predicts the committee’s selection process based on its past behavior — to answer key questions about the playoff race as we near the finish line.


Who gets in if everyone wins out?

Everyone, in this case, is: Georgia, Ohio State (after beating an 11-0 Michigan in Week 13), TCU, Clemson and USC.

That would make three undefeated slam dunks in the first teams listed above and result in a battle for the final spot between Michigan, USC and Clemson.

This is close! And it would be a fascinating decision for the committee. Here’s where the Playoff Predictor lands:

Michigan: 52%
USC: 31%
Clemson: 23%

(Note: those numbers add up to more than 100% on the off-chance the committee decides to leave out TCU).

So why does the model lean toward one-loss Michigan over the two one-loss conference champs? Two key factors: résumé and team quality.

Outside of the conference championship, we project that an 11-1 Michigan would actually have a slightly superior Strength of Record than a 12-1 USC or 12-1 Clemson, though it is exceptionally close with the Trojans and could flip. Michigan is also, in FPI’s mind, the best team of the three — by a lot. The Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in FPI, while Clemson and USC trail at Nos. 9 and 14, respectively.

So from the model’s perspective it sees a team with the better FPI and SOR, and that’s usually the team that gets the better ranking. But the conference championship muddies the waters, which is why this isn’t clear at all.

What if Michigan, instead of Ohio State, ends up 13-0 in the above scenario?

That sets up what should be a fairly easy selection process for the committee, with Georgia, Michigan and TCU virtual locks and Ohio State as a heavy favorite to land that last place.

Ohio State: 79%
USC: 16%
Clemson: 14%

The Buckeyes are the No. 2 ranked team in FPI and also would have a slightly stronger 11-1 SOR than an 11-1 Michigan, meaning Ohio State would also be ahead of USC and Clemson in the résumé metric.

What happens if Michigan or Ohio State lose in the Big Ten championship game?

This is too unlikely for us to do a full-blown scenario, but I think we can get the general idea by just plugging in, for starters, an Ohio State loss in that game — against whoever the opponent may be (Iowa, Purdue and Illinois all still have a chance to win the Big Ten West).

According to the Predictor, the Buckeyes would still have a 94% chance to get into the playoff in this scenario. That would drop a little bit if Clemson, TCU and USC all won out, but it still would be awfully likely Ohio State gets in.

For Michigan, it’s a pretty similar story: A loss in the Big Ten championship game — which the Wolverines can only get to by beating Ohio State first — still gives them an 86% chance at the playoff. Again, that would drop a little bit if everything else went against them elsewhere, but they’d probably still get in.

Is a one-loss TCU finished?

The Predictor says: not necessarily, particularly if the loss is to Iowa State, and then TCU goes on to win the Big 12 championship. At that point, TCU would be a one-loss conference champion with an average strength of record rank of 2.7. That’s the résumé of a playoff team! Independent of results elsewhere, the Predictor says TCU would have a 71% shot at the playoff in this spot, which I think might be a bit of a shock.

This drops to 64% if Clemson and USC also win out. But from the model’s perspective, TCU would have clearly the best résumé of those three teams at that point.

Is there any chance Alabama sneaks in?

*Whispers* Yes, there’s a chance.

We mentioned there are eight teams with a shot at the playoff at the top and have talked about six of them thus far. The seventh is LSU, which can get in by winning out. The eighth is Alabama. Consider this scenario:

• Georgia wins the SEC

• Ohio State wins out

• Clemson, TCU and USC all lose in conference championship games

In this situation there are three teams virtually certain to get in: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Who else? The Predictor leans TCU over Alabama 46% to 39%, but it’s close! And if we give TCU a loss against Iowa State, too, then Alabama would be the favorite for that fourth spot.

Is the Predictor overrating Alabama’s chances to reach the CFP at 12% right now? Probably by a little bit. But is it impossible the Crimson Tide get in? It is not.

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Skinner ‘great’ in return as Oilers force Game 7

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Skinner 'great' in return as Oilers force Game 7

After a week on the bench, Stuart Skinner returned to the net to help the Edmonton Oilers force a Game 7 in their second-round series against the Vancouver Canucks.

Last appearing in Game 3 after struggling to start the series, Skinner made 14 saves in the Oilers’ 5-1 win in Game 6 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta.

Game 7 will be played Monday at Rogers Arena in Vancouver as the winner will face the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference finals starting Thursday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

“I think by doing what we did tonight, I think we just showed a lot of desperation,” Skinner said on the ESPN broadcast. “Guys were blocking shots all over the place. I think both teams played great. You got to give a lot of credit to Vancouver, but you know Vancouver is going to come out really hard especially in their barn. I think we’re going to have to match that and bring some more.”

Averaging 3.80 goals per game during the playoffs while boasting a defensive structure that’s been among the strongest when it comes to limiting shots on goals and scoring chances is the formula the Oilers have used to come within a game of the Western Conference finals.

Figuring out how the Oilers could mesh their defensive structure with the most consistent version of Skinner, however, was one of those challenges they were trying to solve in a series in which the first five games were decided by a goal.

Especially when the Oilers limited the Canucks to 19.3 shots per game in the first three games only to find themselves down in the series with Skinner posting a 4.63 goals-against average and a .790 save percentage through Game 3.

Saturday saw the connection between the Oilers’ defensive structure and Skinner finally click.

The Oilers, who had limited teams to 24.91 scoring chances per 60, limited the Canucks to 18 scoring chances in 5-on-5 play. They also held the Canucks to just seven high-danger scoring chances and didn’t allow any in the second period.

Combining that defensive consistency with Skinner allowing only one goal on 15 shots added to an evening that saw the Oilers burst through for five goals. It was the third time this postseason and the first time in the second round that the Oilers have scored more than five goals.

Oilers captain Connor McDavid, who finished with three points, told the Sportsnet broadcast after the game that although Skinner didn’t face many shots he did “a great job” handling what McDavid considered to be dangerous chances.

“We never had a doubt,” McDavid said. “He’s a battler. He’s always been a battler. Our team always responds and he’s no different. He responded great and gave us a great performance.”

His role in the Oilers’ Game 6 win is the latest development in what has been another mercurial season for the second-year goaltender.

A year ago, Skinner was a rookie who emerged as the No. 1 goaltender for his hometown team. He helped the Oilers reach the second round only for them to be eliminated in six games by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights.

Skinner was pulled over the final three games of the series, which led to an offseason filled with questions. Much like the Oilers themselves, Skinner had a difficult start to the season but found consistency once the club fired coach Jay Woodcroft and hired Kris Knoblauch.

In that time, Skinner solidified his place as the team’s No. 1 goaltender — which is what made his performances through the first three games so jarring. It led to him being pulled to start the third period in the Oilers’ Game 3 loss, with Knoblauch turning to Calvin Pickard in Games 4 and 5.

Pickard stopped 19 shots in the Oilers’ Game 4 victory while allowing three goals on 35 shots in their 3-2 loss in Game 5 to the Canucks.

Knoblauch said after Game 3 that Skinner would return to the lineup at some point, and that point was Saturday.

Now he and the Oilers are just a win away from the conference finals.

“I think obviously, to start off, I think Calvin was amazing when he got put in,” Skinner said. “Definitely got the job done and kept us in it. An unbelievable teammate. For me, I was able to get a little bit of rest and just work on my game and feel good about it again. I was able to come out and do what I had to do.”

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Barkov, ‘best player in the world,’ wins 2nd Selke

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Barkov, 'best player in the world,' wins 2nd Selke

NEW YORK — Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov has won the Selke Trophy as the NHL’s best defensive forward, the league announced Saturday night.

Barkov, 28, is a two-time Selke winner after also finishing first in voting for the award in 2021. He was a big part of the Panthers allowing the fewest goals this season and won 57.3% of his faceoffs, ranking ninth among players with at least 50 games and 500 attempts.

The center from Finland received 156 of 194 first-place votes from members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association and was listed on all but two ballots.

Teammate and forward Matthew Tkachuk, speaking after Friday night’s series-clinching win over the Boston Bruins called Barkov “the best player in the world right now,” adding that “I don’t really even have the words for what he’s doing for our team right now.”

Barkov has led Florida to a second consecutive trip to the Eastern Conference final. After helping the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final, where they lost to the Vegas Golden Knights last summer, he will lead his team into the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday, vs. the New York Rangers.

“We went through it last year, obviously, and that’s helped a lot,” Barkov told SportsNet Friday night after eliminating the Bruins. “But this year is a new year. We have new players, we’re just creating something new here, something really exciting. We’re really excited for this opportunity again, and we can’t wait to get going.”

Carolina Hurricanes veteran Jordan Staal finished second in voting, and Toronto Maple Leafs All-Star Auston Matthews finished third.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Sullivan named U.S. hockey coach for Milan 2026

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Sullivan named U.S. hockey coach for Milan 2026

Mike Sullivan was selected U.S. coach for the 2026 Milan Olympics on Saturday, an expected move that puts the two-time Stanley Cup champion in charge of the country’s bid for its first gold medal since the “Miracle On Ice” in 1980.

USA Hockey also announced that the Pittsburgh Penguins coach will be behind the bench for the Four Nations Face-Off next year, a tournament the NHL will showcase in February for a taste of international competition leading up to the Olympics. Milan marks the return of NHL players to the Olympics after missing the past two Games.

“We’re excited to have Mike guiding our teams,” U.S. general manager Bill Guerin said. “He is one of the very best coaches in the game and his background, including with international hockey, is well-suited to help put our team in the best position to win.”

Sullivan, a native of Marshfield, Massachusetts, was an assistant at the 2006 Olympics, also in Italy in Turin. Most recently he was on John Tortorella’s staff for the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.

Each of those events went disastrously for the U.S., which also lost to eventual champion Canada in the semifinals of the 2014 Sochi Olympics and then to Finland in the bronze-medal game.

NHL players are set to be back in Milan and then France in 2030 after an agreement was reached between the league, players’ association, International Olympic Committee and International Ice Hockey Federation. It’s an opportunity for a generation of American stars, including Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Adam Fox, Charlie McAvoy and strong players in goal, to finally compete together on the world stage.

Sullivan, who coached Pittsburgh to the Cup in 2016 and 2017, will run the show. He was supposed to coach the U.S. in Beijing in 2022 before the NHL withdrew late because of pandemic scheduling issues.

“I am beyond grateful to have the opportunity to coach Team USA in these two significant international events,” Sullivan said in a statement. “It’s been amazing to see the progress we’ve made in hockey in our country over the course of my career. I am honored to lead our best players and I look forward to the challenge that lies ahead.”

Sullivan, 56, previously coached the Boston Bruins during his lengthy career that began in the early 2000s. He has been with Pittsburgh since being promoted as a midseason replacement in 2015-16. As a player, he represented the U.S. at the world juniors in 1988 and the world championship in 1997.

“Mike Sullivan is not only a great coach but someone who has a strong passion for American hockey,” USA Hockey executive director Pat Kelleher said. “He’s a world-class leader and been an important part of hockey in our country for a very long time.”

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