Tom Kaye of Plymouth, Pennsylvania tops off his neighbor’s gas tank for them on at a gas station in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 19, 2022.
Aimee Dilger | Reuters
Oil prices are defying expectations and are barely higher on the year, as the outlook for oil demand continues to deteriorate for now.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January settled higher Monday at $77.24 per barrel, following a drop to $73.60 per barrel, the lowest price since last December. WTI was up 2.2% for the year, after briefly turning negative earlier Monday.
Gasoline prices at the pump have also been falling dramatically and could be cheaper than last year for many Americans by Christmas, according to an outlook from the Oil Price Information Service. On Monday, the national average was $3.546 per gallon of regular unleaded fuel, down from $3.662 a week ago but still higher than the $3.394 a year ago, according to AAA.
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‘Macro headwinds rather than tailwinds’
China’s lockdowns and the rare protests against Beijing this weekend have raised more doubt about the outlook for the country’s already weakened economy.
“We think the recessionary [forces] around the world, particularly in the three largest economies, are dominating the macro environment for the year as a whole, and we think that the issues we’ve been identifying as relatively bumpy in the period ahead are going to remain,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup. “Right now, we are looking at macro headwinds rather than tailwinds.”
Morse was one of the more bearish strategists on Wall Street in 2022, but he said the latest market developments and the hit to major economies made even his forecast too bullish. He had revised his outlook higher at the end of the third quarter, based on the shift by OPEC+ to focus on prices and the pending ban of Russian crude by Europe.
The oil market has been focused on those two potential catalysts for higher prices, but the impact on demand from the slowdown in China and new lockdowns has outweighed concerns about supply for now. The European Union’s ban on purchases of seaborne Russian oil takes place Dec. 5. The EU is also expected to announce price caps for Russian crude.
“We’re waiting to see if they signal even deeper cuts. There were rumors in the market about that happening,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. After dipping to the day’s lows, oil rebounded on Monday as speculation circulated about new OPEC+ cuts, he said.
Brent futures, the international benchmark, was lower Monday afternoon at $83.19 per barrel, recovering from $80.61 per barrel, the lowest price since January.
“Right now the target is below $60 [for WTI]. That’s what the chart is indicating… this is a new low for the move because previously the low for the year was late September and now we’ve broken that,” said Kilduff. “It all depends on what happens in China. China is as important on the demand side, as OPEC+ is on the supply side.”
Higher oil prices next year?
Analysts expect oil prices to increase next year. JPMorgan predicts Brent will average $90 per barrel in 2023.
Morgan Stanley expects the return of much higher prices mid-year, after China ends lockdowns.
“Our balances point to modest oversupply in coming months. Hence, we see Brent prices range-bound in the mid-80s to high-90s first,” the firm’s analysts wrote. “However, the market will likely return to balance in 2Q23 and undersupply in 2H23. With limited supply buffer, we expect Brent to return to ~$110/bbl by the middle of next year.”
Kilduff said he does not expect OPEC+ to make a big market impact this year with its cuts, though it is a wild card. Another factor that could drive prices would be if the war in Ukraine were to escalate.
“I’m not that worried about an OPEC+ cut just because the reality of it is most of the countries aren’t going to be cutting. It’s only going to be Saudi Arabia dialing back on the edges,” he said. “Everyone is so far into their quota. It’s a numbers game.”
Morse said market dynamics have changed and oil demand growth will be smaller as a percentage of gross domestic product. “We’re seeing a significant slowdown in global growth,” he said.
Oil demand growth for China turned out to be much less than expected. “We were thinking demand was sluggish. It turned out to be significantly more sluggish… We had thought this year was going to see 3.4 million barrels of demand growth. It actually grew by 1.7 million barrels,” Morse said. He noted that Europe’s demand is down by several hundred thousand barrels, and the U.S. was flat in 2022.
Morse said the demand decline is also part of bigger trend, tied in part to the energy transition toward renewables. “We are also looking for the peak of oil demand in this decade. It’s part of a longer term story,” he said.
The weather’s influence
Kilduff said La Niña’s weather pattern has also affected prices, with warmer weather in North America. He and other analysts say it could continue to impact the market.
“We keep getting cold outlooks, and then it falters. This is La Niña. You will get cold days, but then you get balmy stretches,” Kilduff said. He said concerns about winter heating fuel supplies have abated with a build in supplies in Europe.
The result for consumers could be a windfall at the pump during the holiday season. OPIS expects prices to keep falling into January before turning higher again.
“If you combine the Chinese demonstrations with the warm weather in the northern hemisphere, that’s kind of a double-barreled assault on the energy price at the moment,” said Tom Kloza, global energy analyst at OPIS. He said he expects gasoline to average between $3 and $3.25 per gallon at its low, but it will be below $3 in many parts of the country.
Kloza said by Christmas, the U.S. national average should be slightly below the $3.28 level it was at last year.
Diesel prices have also been falling. According to AAA, diesel averaged $5.215 per gallon nationally Monday, off by about 8 cents per gallon from a week ago.
“We’ve been counter-seasonally building distillate fuel supply so that’s been easing things. If the weather stays relatively benign here, we’re going to lose that upside catalyst and grind lower still,” said Again’s Kilduff.
For the better part of a year, Tesla has been promising “more affordable models” to replace the cancelled “Model 2.” The new models were supposed to go into production in the next 2 days, but it sure feels like that might not happen, because nobody’s heard anything at all about them.
For several years now, Tesla has been teasing everyone with the promise of more affordable models.
While the Tesla Model 3 is pretty reasonably priced, many were waiting for a promised $25,000 model, which many had taken to calling the “Model 2.”
Tesla was supposedly going to pursue a new revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing method to get costs down for the future vehicle, to enable this lower price.
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However, last year Tesla CEO Elon Musk refocused the company’s efforts on its much–delayed Robotaxi project, which finally launched last weekend in limited form in Austin, to mixed results. The company also wants to release a purpose-built Robotaxi vehicle called the Cybercab, which is first showed off last October. It plans to its unboxed manufacturing method for the Cybercab.
Despite canceling $25k Tesla, “more affordable models” were teased
Even after canceling plans for the $25,000 “Model 2,” Tesla continued to say it was working on “more affordable models.” It started including that phrase in its quarterly reports in April 2024, in its Q1 report. At the time, it said it had “updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.”
In each report since then, Tesla has reiterated that “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.”
The most recent inclusion of this phrase is in Tesla’s Q1 2025 report, which was released on April 22 of this year. Again, Tesla said that these models were on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.
On that Q1 call, Tesla’s head of vehicle engineering, Lars Moravy, answered a question about the company’s more affordable models thusly:
Yeah, we’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through like the last-minute issues that pop up. We’re not getting down one by one. At this point, I would say that ramp maybe — might be a little slower than we had hoped initially, but there’s nothing, just kind of given the turmoil that exists in the industry right now. But there’s nothing blocking us from starting production within the next — within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks. And I will say, it’s important to emphasize that as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and the design of it is really limited to what we can do in our existing lines rather than build new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles. And that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the big, new lowest price to the market within the constraints of selling.
That was said only two months ago, when Tesla should have had good visibility on the imminent start of production of new models. And the first half of 2025 ends on June 30, two days from now. As of yet, we have heard nothing more about it.
We should have heard something by now
Typically, in advance of the launch of a new model, we will get some sort of information. Rarely can a company, especially on with such a magnifying glass over everything it does, get away with a secret launch of something like a car. There’d be camouflagedvehicles, supplier reports, leaks from the inside, or something of the sort. Yet we’ve seen very little.
Now… Tesla did say that it would start production, rather than start sales, within the first half of this year. So they don’t have to have it ready on the lot, and even starting trial production could kind of qualify.
The last time Tesla did pull off an unexpected vehicle launch was the next-gen Roadster, but that was 8 years ago, and it still hasn’t gone into production. Even the Robovan concept unveiled at the Cybercab event, which wasn’t expected at that particular event, had seen leaks years prior.
It might just be a stripped down Model 3/Y
Another wrinkle is that Tesla has never really detailed exactly what the phrase “more affordable models” means.
As best we can tell, the plan is to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3/Y, rather than an actual new model. However, in that case, the inclusion of the word “models” is strange, since that suggests an actual new model (or multiple new models) rather than just a cheaper version of an existing one.
Tesla could really use a boost right now
Importantly, now would be a good time for Tesla to have a more affordable model. The company is suffering from a huge sales decline in almost every territory where it sells – partially due to an aging product line, with only one new model released in the last 6 years, the Cybertruck… and it’s a flop.
And while Musk also continues to promise world-changing innovations at Tesla (whenever he looks away from his phone for two seconds), few of them have materialized. Tesla is supposed to change the world in 6 ways this year (Semi, Roadster, unsupervised FSD, Cybercab, Optimus, and the “affordable EV”), and halfway through the year, has so far achieved none of them.
So, given that releasing an eyesore didn’t work, updating its most popular vehicle didn’t work, overpromising world-changing innovations didn’t work, and the CEO acting like a nazi at every possible turn didn’t work, maybe the company should try the one thing it hasn’t: a more affordable model. But Tesla, so far, has declined this strategy – despite teasing us for so long with the idea.
Now, we do still have two days, so who knows, maybe we’ll get some sort of announcement imminently. It is possible, for example, that Tesla is saving its announcement for the very end of the quarter, so as not to spoil its traditional end-of-quarter sales rush (on what is already expected to be a poor sales quarter). But if it does happen, we will be surprised. And if the change is anything more than a mildly de-contented Model 3/Y, we may even be impressed.
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TQ, the German force behind some of the lightest and quietest e-bike motors on the market, just took a leap forward – again. Barely weeks after debuting the lightweight HPR60 e-bike drive system, the company has introduced the HPR40, now claiming the title of the lightest and most efficient mid-drive motor in the world.
Tailored for road and gravel e-bikes, the HPR40 clocks in at just 1.17 kg (2.6 lb). That means it has slashed nearly half the weight of the previous HPR60, which weighed 1.92 kg (4.2 lb).
Despite being smaller, it still delivers a respectable 40 Nm of torque and up to 200W of peak power, making it ideal for riders seeking subtle assist rather than brute force. This isn’t about raw horsepower; it’s about efficiency and seamless integration.
Unlike motors that have been rebadged from their original use on mountain bikes or commuters, TQ designed the HPR40 from scratch for lighter frames, aiming to remain nearly invisible on a bike’s bottom bracket and with controls hidden inside the handlebar. The result is a drive system that blends into the bike like a whisper, offering performance without the bulk.
At the heart of the HPR motor is TQ’s Harmonic Pin-Ring Transmission, which is a refined drivetrain rearranged to live fully inside a bike in place of the bottom bracket. This clever design eliminates noisy gears, reduces friction, and lets the motor engage instantly with zero lag. While that might sound like many mid-drives we regularly see from manufacturers like Bosch, TQ’s is so small and so deeply integrated that it’s barely visible to a casual observer.
The HPR40 pairs with a 290Wh battery that weighs just 1.46 kg (3.2 lb) and is hidden inside the downtube. There’s also a water bottle-sized 160 Wh range extender available, keeping total system weight under 2.7 kg (6 lbs). That’s one of the lightest fully integrated e-bike systems out there.
Control comes via a hidden handlebar remote hidden under the handlebar tape, and a sleek end-cap LED display keeps essentials in view without disrupting aesthetics. This stripped-down interface reinforces TQ’s philosophy: get out of the rider’s way. Or as New Atlas humorously described it, “it’s almost as if the company is daring riders to start a fresh round of mechanical doping scandals.”
TQ’s HPR40 isn’t just a fancy new drive system in a display booth, it’s already built into the new Canyon Endurace:ONFly, a sub‑10 kg (22 lb) e-road bike that tips the scales at just 9.9 kg. The Endurace:ONFly marries TQ’s whisper-soft assist with Canyon’s aerodynamic finesse, offering riders a bike that feels analog but rides electric.
The HPR40’s high torque density means riders can double their pedaling output with a modest 200 W boost. That translates to better climbs, longer rides, and a natural ride feel, all without the compromises of heavier systems. Considering that many riders can put out around 200W of constant power by themselves, the effect is like having a tandem rider along helping out, except that he only weighs 6 pounds.
The move shows that not every drive maker is merely chasing horsepower and torque figures. Instead, by merging elegant design, noticeable yet natural power, and light weight, TQ is proving that electric assistance doesn’t have to scream. It can whisper.
Electrek’s Take
Here’s the real story: the HPR40 isn’t just a technical footnote, it’s a signal. It shows that electric bike engineering is transitioning from brute force toward a future that also includes invisible, intuitive power systems. For riders chasing the delicate line between analog feel and electric assist, this is a breakthrough.
And considering that many riders are reaching an age where their mind wants to do the kind of rides that their body might no longer be capable of, systems like these can keep those riders in the saddle for longer. That’s many more years of keeping the good times rolling (and keeping the body young by continuing regular exercise).
Now the question is whether other brands will follow suit. Will we see this ultra-light motor trickle down into commuter e‑bikes or adventure-ready gravel rigs? If so, the day when an e‑bike feels exactly like a bike, but gives you a little assist when you need it most, just got much closer.
TQ is playing a long game: subtle, smart, and purpose-built. The HPR40 is merely the first move, and if this is any indicator, the next wave of e-bikes may feel less electric and more… old school?
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Elon Musk claims Tesla has delivered its first car fully autonomously from the factory to a customer’s home “across town.”
If true, I’d argue that this is actually a bigger deal than its “Robotaxi” with supervisors, but there are still questions about the value of such a system.
The Tesla CEO announced on X:
The first fully autonomous delivery of a Tesla Model Y from factory to a customer home across town, including highways, was just completed a day ahead of schedule!!
Musk has been known to stretch the meaning of the words “fully autonomous” over the years, but he did give a few more details:
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There were no people in the car at all and no remote operators in control at any point. FULLY autonomous! To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fully autonomous drive with no people in the car or remotely operating the car on a public highway.
This would be somewhat of an improvement from its recently launched Robotaxi service, which involves a Tesla employee in the passenger seat at all times, ready to hit a kill switch.
However, Musk’s last comment is not valid. Several companies have tested fully autonomous driving with no one in the driver’s seat or in the car, and Waymo has even started offering rides to paying passengers on freeways.
Highway driving is part of Waymo’s operations in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, although it is currently only available to employees through Waymo’s internal app in the latter two markets.
Musk says that a video of the milestone is coming soon.
The milestone comes after Tesla has been moving its vehicles autonomously from the end of the line to its delivery lots at factories in the US for the last few months.
Electrek’s Take
With in-car supervisors at all times and numerous issues arising in just the first few days of operations, Tesla’s Robotaxi launch fell short of expectations. For anyone who had previously experienced Tesla’s Supervised Full Self-Driving or a more comprehensive product like Waymo, it didn’t feel special.
An autonomous drive with no one in the car, including highway driving from the factory to a customer’s home, can be more impressive, albeit with some potential caveats.
“No people in the car at all and no remote operators in control at any point.” In some sense, Tesla’s FSD and Robotaxi programs would be able to do that too, it’s just that Tesla is not confident that they can do it reliably enough over long periods of time to remove the supervision.
Which raises the question: what’s different with this?
No one in the car, so Tesla doesn’t take the safety concerns as seriously? That would be weird, as the safety of people outside of the vehicle, aka other road users, also needs to be considered.
It’s possible that Tesla tested the particular route for this drive several times and then remotely, even potentially with a trailing car, as it was spotted several times in recent months, monitored it with someone ready to stop it at all times.
It wouldn’t be that far from what Tesla already operates, and not something scalable until we see data that shows Tesla can consistently do this safely over hundreds of thousands of miles.
Ultimately, that remains the main issue. Tesla is big on making videos and making showy statements when it comes to self-driving, but it has never released any relevant data. Ever. Let’s see it.
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