Defying forecasts, crude oil prices have wiped out most of this year’s gains and could head lower

Published

2 years ago

November 28, 2022

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Tom Kaye of Plymouth, Pennsylvania tops off his neighbor’s gas tank for them on at a gas station in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 19, 2022.

Aimee Dilger | Reuters

Oil prices are defying expectations and are barely higher on the year, as the outlook for oil demand continues to deteriorate for now.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January settled higher Monday at $77.24 per barrel, following a drop to $73.60 per barrel, the lowest price since last December. WTI was up 2.2% for the year, after briefly turning negative earlier Monday.

Gasoline prices at the pump have also been falling dramatically and could be cheaper than last year for many Americans by Christmas, according to an outlook from the Oil Price Information Service. On Monday, the national average was $3.546 per gallon of regular unleaded fuel, down from $3.662 a week ago but still higher than the $3.394 a year ago, according to AAA.

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‘Macro headwinds rather than tailwinds’

China’s lockdowns and the rare protests against Beijing this weekend have raised more doubt about the outlook for the country’s already weakened economy.

“We think the recessionary [forces] around the world, particularly in the three largest economies, are dominating the macro environment for the year as a whole, and we think that the issues we’ve been identifying as relatively bumpy in the period ahead are going to remain,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup. “Right now, we are looking at macro headwinds rather than tailwinds.”

Morse was one of the more bearish strategists on Wall Street in 2022, but he said the latest market developments and the hit to major economies made even his forecast too bullish. He had revised his outlook higher at the end of the third quarter, based on the shift by OPEC+ to focus on prices and the pending ban of Russian crude by Europe.

The oil market has been focused on those two potential catalysts for higher prices, but the impact on demand from the slowdown in China and new lockdowns has outweighed concerns about supply for now. The European Union’s ban on purchases of seaborne Russian oil takes place Dec. 5. The EU is also expected to announce price caps for Russian crude.

OPEC+ is also a factor. The group includes OPEC, plus other producers, including Russia. The group surprised the market in October when it approved a production cut of 2 million barrels a day.

“We’re waiting to see if they signal even deeper cuts. There were rumors in the market about that happening,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. After dipping to the day’s lows, oil rebounded on Monday as speculation circulated about new OPEC+ cuts, he said.

Brent futures, the international benchmark, was lower Monday afternoon at $83.19 per barrel, recovering from $80.61 per barrel, the lowest price since January.

“Right now the target is below $60 [for WTI]. That’s what the chart is indicating… this is a new low for the move because previously the low for the year was late September and now we’ve broken that,” said Kilduff. “It all depends on what happens in China. China is as important on the demand side, as OPEC+ is on the supply side.”

Higher oil prices next year?

Analysts expect oil prices to increase next year. JPMorgan predicts Brent will average $90 per barrel in 2023.

Morgan Stanley expects the return of much higher prices mid-year, after China ends lockdowns.

“Our balances point to modest oversupply in coming months. Hence, we see Brent prices range-bound in the mid-80s to high-90s first,” the firm’s analysts wrote. “However, the market will likely return to balance in 2Q23 and undersupply in 2H23. With limited supply buffer, we expect Brent to return to ~$110/bbl by the middle of next year.”

Kilduff said he does not expect OPEC+ to make a big market impact this year with its cuts, though it is a wild card. Another factor that could drive prices would be if the war in Ukraine were to escalate.

“I’m not that worried about an OPEC+ cut just because the reality of it is most of the countries aren’t going to be cutting. It’s only going to be Saudi Arabia dialing back on the edges,” he said. “Everyone is so far into their quota. It’s a numbers game.”

Morse said market dynamics have changed and oil demand growth will be smaller as a percentage of gross domestic product. “We’re seeing a significant slowdown in global growth,” he said.

Oil demand growth for China turned out to be much less than expected. “We were thinking demand was sluggish. It turned out to be significantly more sluggish… We had thought this year was going to see 3.4 million barrels of demand growth. It actually grew by 1.7 million barrels,” Morse said. He noted that Europe’s demand is down by several hundred thousand barrels, and the U.S. was flat in 2022.

Morse said the demand decline is also part of bigger trend, tied in part to the energy transition toward renewables. “We are also looking for the peak of oil demand in this decade. It’s part of a longer term story,” he said.

The weather’s influence

Kilduff said La Niña’s weather pattern has also affected prices, with warmer weather in North America. He and other analysts say it could continue to impact the market.

“We keep getting cold outlooks, and then it falters. This is La Niña. You will get cold days, but then you get balmy stretches,” Kilduff said. He said concerns about winter heating fuel supplies have abated with a build in supplies in Europe.

The result for consumers could be a windfall at the pump during the holiday season. OPIS expects prices to keep falling into January before turning higher again.

“If you combine the Chinese demonstrations with the warm weather in the northern hemisphere, that’s kind of a double-barreled assault on the energy price at the moment,” said Tom Kloza, global energy analyst at OPIS. He said he expects gasoline to average between $3 and $3.25 per gallon at its low, but it will be below $3 in many parts of the country.

Kloza said by Christmas, the U.S. national average should be slightly below the $3.28 level it was at last year.

Diesel prices have also been falling. According to AAA, diesel averaged $5.215 per gallon nationally Monday, off by about 8 cents per gallon from a week ago.

“We’ve been counter-seasonally building distillate fuel supply so that’s been easing things. If the weather stays relatively benign here, we’re going to lose that upside catalyst and grind lower still,” said Again’s Kilduff.

–Michael Bloom contributed to this story.

Environment

Massachusetts launches a two-year V2X pilot program

Published

2 hours ago

March 1, 2025

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Massachusetts launches a two-year V2X pilot program

Kia EV9 Massachusetts V2X pilot — Kia EV9 (Source: Kia)

Massachusetts is launching a first-of-its-kind statewide vehicle-to-everything (V2X) pilot program. This two-year initiative, backed by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MassCEC), aims to deploy 100 bidirectional chargers to homes, school buses, municipal, and commercial fleet participants across the state.

These bidirectional chargers will enable EVs to serve as mobile energy storage units, collectively providing an estimated 1.5 MW of new storage capacity. That means EVs won’t just be getting power – they’ll be giving it back to the grid, helping to balance demand and support renewable energy use. The program is also focused on ensuring that low-income and disadvantaged communities have access to this cutting-edge tech.

The Massachusetts pilot is one of the largest state-led V2X initiatives in the US and is designed to tackle key challenges in deploying bidirectional charging technology. By strategically placing these chargers in a variety of settings, the program aims to identify and resolve barriers to wider adoption of V2X technology.

Massachusetts EV owners and fleet operators enrolled in the program will get bidirectional chargers capable of both vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and backup power operations at no cost. Here’s what they stand to gain:

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No-cost charging infrastructure: Bidirectional charging stations and installation are fully covered for participants.
Grid resilience: With an estimated 1.5 MW of new flexible and distributed storage assets, the program strengthens Massachusetts’ energy infrastructure.
Clean energy integration: V2G technology allows EVs to charge when renewable energy is available and discharge stored energy when it’s not, supporting the state’s clean energy goals.
Backup power: EV batteries can be used as backup power sources during outages.
Revenue opportunities: Some participants can earn money by sending stored energy back to the grid.

Clean energy solutions firm Resource Innovations and vehicle-grid integration tech company The Mobility House are leading the program’s implementation. “With the charging infrastructure provided through this program, we’re eliminating financial barriers and enabling school districts, homeowners, and fleets to access reliable backup power,” said Kelly Helfrich of Resource Innovations. “We aim to create a scalable blueprint for V2X programs nationwide.”

“Bidirectional charging benefits vehicle owners by providing backup power and revenue opportunities while strengthening the grid for the entire community,” added Russell Vare of The Mobility House North America.

The program is open for enrollment now through June 2025. For more details, visit the MassCEC V2X Program webpage. A list of eligible bidirectional vehicles can be found on that page.

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Environment

Compton, California, just got its first 25 electric school buses

Published

6 hours ago

February 28, 2025

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Compton, California, just got its first 25 electric school buses

Compton electric school buses — Photo: National Express LLC

Compton, California, has unveiled 25 new electric school buses – the school district’s first – and 25 Tellus 180 kW DC fast chargers.

Compton Unified School District (CUSD) in southern Los Angeles County is putting 17 Thomas Built Type A and eight Thomas Built Type C electric school buses on the road this spring. In addition to working with Thomas Built, CUSD also collaborated with electrification-as-a-service provider Highland Electric Fleet, utility Southern California Edison, and school transportation provider Durham School Services.

Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean School Bus Program awarded funds for the vehicles in the program’s first round. EPA also awarded CUSD funds for the third round of the program and anticipates introducing an additional 25 EV school buses in the future.

“I can’t stress enough how vital grants like these are and the need for continued support from our partners in government at the state and federal level to fund additional grants for school districts and their transportation partners that are ready to deliver and operate zero-emission buses,” said Tim Wertner, CEO of Durham School Services.

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CUSD, which serves Compton and parts of the cities of Carson and Los Angeles, currently serves more than 17,000 students at 36 sites. The district has a high school graduation rate of 93% and an 88% college acceptance rate. One in 11 children in Los Angeles County have asthma, which makes the need for emissions-free school transportation that much more pressing.

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Rivian’s R1S electric SUV just got way cheaper to lease

Published

7 hours ago

February 28, 2025

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Rivian's R1S electric SUV just got way cheaper to lease

After cutting lease prices by $200 this month, the Rivian R1S is now surprisingly affordable. It may even be a better deal than the new Tesla Model Y.

Rivian cuts R1S lease prices by $200 per month

Rivian’s R1S is one of the hottest electric SUVs on the market. If you haven’t checked it out yet, you’re missing out.

With some of the best deals to date, now may be the time. Rivian lowered R1S lease prices earlier this month to just $599 for 36 months, with $8,493 due at signing (30,000 miles). The offer is for the new 2025 R1S Adventure Dual Standard, which starts at $75,900.

Before the price cut, the R1S was listed at $799 per month, with $8,694 due at signing. The electric SUV now has the same lease price as the R1T, despite costing $6,000 more.

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The 2025 R1T Dual Motor starts at $69,900, essentially making it a free $6,000 upgrade. At that price, you may even want to consider it over the new Tesla Model Y.

Tesla’s new Model Y Launch Series arrived with lease prices of $699 for 36 months. With $4,393 due at signing, the effective rate is $821 per month, or just $13 less than the R1S at $834. However, the 2025 R1S costs nearly $15,000 more, with the Model Y Launch Series price at $59,990.

Rivian is also offering an “All-Electric Upgrade Offer” of up to $6,000 for those looking to trade-in their gas-powered car, but base models are not included.

	Starting Price	Range (EPA-est.)
2025 Rivian R1S Dual Standard	$75,900	270 miles
2026 Tesla Model Y Launch Series	$59,990	327 miles

Rivian R1S Dual Standard vs new Tesla Model Y Launch Series

To take advantage of the Rivian R1S lease deal, you must order it before March 15 and take delivery on or before March 31, 2025.

The 2025 Rivian R1S Dual Standard Motor has an EPA-estimated range of up to 270 miles. Tesla’s new Model Y Launch Series gets up to 327 miles.

Which electric SUV would you choose? Rivian’s R1S or the new Tesla Model Y? If you’re ready to check them out for yourself, you can use our links below to find deals on the Rivian R1S and Tesla Model Y in your area.

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