Defying forecasts, crude oil prices have wiped out most of this year’s gains and could head lower

Published

3 years ago

November 28, 2022

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Tom Kaye of Plymouth, Pennsylvania tops off his neighbor’s gas tank for them on at a gas station in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 19, 2022.

Aimee Dilger | Reuters

Oil prices are defying expectations and are barely higher on the year, as the outlook for oil demand continues to deteriorate for now.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January settled higher Monday at $77.24 per barrel, following a drop to $73.60 per barrel, the lowest price since last December. WTI was up 2.2% for the year, after briefly turning negative earlier Monday.

Gasoline prices at the pump have also been falling dramatically and could be cheaper than last year for many Americans by Christmas, according to an outlook from the Oil Price Information Service. On Monday, the national average was $3.546 per gallon of regular unleaded fuel, down from $3.662 a week ago but still higher than the $3.394 a year ago, according to AAA.

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‘Macro headwinds rather than tailwinds’

China’s lockdowns and the rare protests against Beijing this weekend have raised more doubt about the outlook for the country’s already weakened economy.

“We think the recessionary [forces] around the world, particularly in the three largest economies, are dominating the macro environment for the year as a whole, and we think that the issues we’ve been identifying as relatively bumpy in the period ahead are going to remain,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup. “Right now, we are looking at macro headwinds rather than tailwinds.”

Morse was one of the more bearish strategists on Wall Street in 2022, but he said the latest market developments and the hit to major economies made even his forecast too bullish. He had revised his outlook higher at the end of the third quarter, based on the shift by OPEC+ to focus on prices and the pending ban of Russian crude by Europe.

The oil market has been focused on those two potential catalysts for higher prices, but the impact on demand from the slowdown in China and new lockdowns has outweighed concerns about supply for now. The European Union’s ban on purchases of seaborne Russian oil takes place Dec. 5. The EU is also expected to announce price caps for Russian crude.

OPEC+ is also a factor. The group includes OPEC, plus other producers, including Russia. The group surprised the market in October when it approved a production cut of 2 million barrels a day.

“We’re waiting to see if they signal even deeper cuts. There were rumors in the market about that happening,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. After dipping to the day’s lows, oil rebounded on Monday as speculation circulated about new OPEC+ cuts, he said.

Brent futures, the international benchmark, was lower Monday afternoon at $83.19 per barrel, recovering from $80.61 per barrel, the lowest price since January.

“Right now the target is below $60 [for WTI]. That’s what the chart is indicating… this is a new low for the move because previously the low for the year was late September and now we’ve broken that,” said Kilduff. “It all depends on what happens in China. China is as important on the demand side, as OPEC+ is on the supply side.”

Higher oil prices next year?

Analysts expect oil prices to increase next year. JPMorgan predicts Brent will average $90 per barrel in 2023.

Morgan Stanley expects the return of much higher prices mid-year, after China ends lockdowns.

“Our balances point to modest oversupply in coming months. Hence, we see Brent prices range-bound in the mid-80s to high-90s first,” the firm’s analysts wrote. “However, the market will likely return to balance in 2Q23 and undersupply in 2H23. With limited supply buffer, we expect Brent to return to ~$110/bbl by the middle of next year.”

Kilduff said he does not expect OPEC+ to make a big market impact this year with its cuts, though it is a wild card. Another factor that could drive prices would be if the war in Ukraine were to escalate.

“I’m not that worried about an OPEC+ cut just because the reality of it is most of the countries aren’t going to be cutting. It’s only going to be Saudi Arabia dialing back on the edges,” he said. “Everyone is so far into their quota. It’s a numbers game.”

Morse said market dynamics have changed and oil demand growth will be smaller as a percentage of gross domestic product. “We’re seeing a significant slowdown in global growth,” he said.

Oil demand growth for China turned out to be much less than expected. “We were thinking demand was sluggish. It turned out to be significantly more sluggish… We had thought this year was going to see 3.4 million barrels of demand growth. It actually grew by 1.7 million barrels,” Morse said. He noted that Europe’s demand is down by several hundred thousand barrels, and the U.S. was flat in 2022.

Morse said the demand decline is also part of bigger trend, tied in part to the energy transition toward renewables. “We are also looking for the peak of oil demand in this decade. It’s part of a longer term story,” he said.

The weather’s influence

Kilduff said La Niña’s weather pattern has also affected prices, with warmer weather in North America. He and other analysts say it could continue to impact the market.

“We keep getting cold outlooks, and then it falters. This is La Niña. You will get cold days, but then you get balmy stretches,” Kilduff said. He said concerns about winter heating fuel supplies have abated with a build in supplies in Europe.

The result for consumers could be a windfall at the pump during the holiday season. OPIS expects prices to keep falling into January before turning higher again.

“If you combine the Chinese demonstrations with the warm weather in the northern hemisphere, that’s kind of a double-barreled assault on the energy price at the moment,” said Tom Kloza, global energy analyst at OPIS. He said he expects gasoline to average between $3 and $3.25 per gallon at its low, but it will be below $3 in many parts of the country.

Kloza said by Christmas, the U.S. national average should be slightly below the $3.28 level it was at last year.

Diesel prices have also been falling. According to AAA, diesel averaged $5.215 per gallon nationally Monday, off by about 8 cents per gallon from a week ago.

“We’ve been counter-seasonally building distillate fuel supply so that’s been easing things. If the weather stays relatively benign here, we’re going to lose that upside catalyst and grind lower still,” said Again’s Kilduff.

–Michael Bloom contributed to this story.

Environment

Why a landmark ruling from the world’s top court puts financial markets on notice

Published

6 hours ago

August 15, 2025

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Why a landmark ruling from the world’s top court puts financial markets on notice

Vanuatu’s Climate Change Minister Ralph Regenvanu (C) delivers a speech as he attends a demonstration ahead of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) session tasked with issuing the first Advisory Opinion (AO) on States’ legal obligations to address climate change, in The Hague on July 23, 2025.

John Thys | Afp | Getty Images

Gripped by corporate earnings season and U.S. President Donald Trump‘s back-and-forth tariff policy, investors largely shrugged off a historic climate ruling from the world’s top court.

But for some, the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) recent advisory opinion on state’s legal obligations in the face of climate change could emerge as a watershed moment for financial markets.

Günther Thallinger, a board member at Allianz, one of the world’s biggest insurers, said that close watchers of the ICJ’s July 23 ruling described it as perhaps the most significant climate development since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

At the time, the pronouncement marked the ICJ’s first-ever opinion on climate change and laid out that climate action is not optional.

The court said in a unanimous ruling that governments and countries have a legal obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions, protect present and future generations from the climate crisis and to cooperate internationally.

Notably, the ICJ also found that fossil fuel production, including licensing and subsidies, “may constitute an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State.”

This opinion for investors, for capital market participants, really means something.

Günther Thallinger

Board member at Allianz

The ruling, which was the brainchild of young law students in low-lying Pacific island states and championed by the government of Vanuatu, is widely expected to have far-reaching legal and political consequences.

Speaking in a personal capacity, Thallinger said that while the ICJ’s opinion is based on existing law and conventions, the ruling could yet have meaningful ramifications for a vast range of assets — whether one cares about climate change or not.

“If one takes as an investor what the International Court of Justice just said, then a revaluation of these assets needs to happen. Every prudent investor must do this now,” Thallinger told CNBC by video call.

“Even if they don’t like the discussion around climate change, even if they would say they denigrate the Court of Justice completely, they must expect that, in some countries, some governments, some courts are going to follow this opinion,” Thallinger said.

“If they follow this opinion, it has asset valuation implications, quite clearly. So, this opinion for investors, for capital market participants, really means something.”

Licensing and subsidies

On the issue of licensing and subsidies, Thallinger said the ICJ’s ruling could prove to be a significant development.

That’s because licensing and permitting for the mining sector, for example, and government subsidies for fossil fuels could be at risk following the court opinion. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas is the chief driver of the climate crisis.

“If subsides are unlawful, then one should expect that subsidies are somehow stopped at a certain point in time,” Thallinger said.

“Now, certain business processes live on these subsidies or at least benefit to a certain degree on these subsidies. And, as always for an investor, usually you look simply at the cashflow, and if the cashflow part is missing or all of a sudden becomes much smaller then that means another valuation,” he added.

President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Yuji Iwasawa (C) and members issue first Advisory Opinion (AO) on States’ legal obligations to address climate change, in The Hague on July 23, 2025.

John Thys | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest carbon emitters, provided a mixed response to the ICJ’s ruling.

“As always, President Trump and the entire administration is committed to putting America first and prioritizing the interests of everyday Americans,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in response to the court opinion, Reuters reported.

A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said the ruling has a “positive significance” for advancing international climate cooperation and sought to reaffirm the Asian country’s status as a developing country.

Mixed signals

Not everyone is as concerned about the ICJ’s ruling from an investor standpoint.

“I feel like the wide spectrum of views that exist in the investor community on climate change, and the action that investors are supposed to take, will probably mean that the decision is a bit of a Rorschach test,” Lindsey Stewart, director of institutional insights for Morningstar, told CNBC by video call.

“People are just going to see things that kind of confirm their existing view,” he added.

A Rorschach test refers to a psychological assessment during which a person is asked to describe what they see in a series of inkblots.

Ida Kassa Johannesen, head of commercial ESG at Saxo Bank, said the ICJ’s intervention is a non-binding advisory opinion, rather than a ruling, “and this distinction is crucial.”

Companies with significant environmental footprints, such as those in the oil and gas, mining and heavy industry sectors, are likely to face increased litigation risk, which could affect their costs, valuation and reputation, Johannesen told CNBC by email.

“As a result, investors and particular large institutional investors may begin to reallocate capital away from high-risk sectors to manage exposure to climate-related legal and reputational risks,” she added.

Saxo Bank’s Johannesen pointed out that the U.S. and China both expressed reservations about the ICJ’s opinion, emphasizing its non-binding nature and calling for flexibility in climate action.

The Trump administration also recently signed into law the U.S. president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a package that is favorable to mining and oil and gas companies.

“All this sends mixed signals which would probably lead to fragmented market responses between the world’s 2 largest economies and the [rest of the world], slow down global regulatory convergence and ultimately limit the (short-term) impact on markets and investor behavior,” Johannesen said.

A firefighter falls on the ground while working to extinguish a wildfire in San Cibrao das Viñas, outside Ourense, northwestern Spain, on August 12, 2025.

Miguel Riopa | Afp | Getty Images

A spokesperson at ABP, one of Europe’s largest pension funds, welcomed what they billed as “the spirit” of the court’s opinion, but said they do not anticipate any short-term ramifications for financial markets.

“The ICJ’s advisory opinion sends a signal that climate inaction may constitute a breach of international law. However, given its non-binding nature, we don’t expect immediate changes in national policies or financial markets,” an ABP spokesperson told CNBC by email.

The Dutch pension fund, which doesn’t invest in fossil fuels and says it actively supports climate solutions, highlighted that Europe, for example, already has a lot of climate legislation in place.

Environment

Global EV sales hit 10.7M in 2025 – Europe surges, US stalls

Published

13 hours ago

August 14, 2025

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Global EV sales hit 10.7M in 2025 – Europe surges, US stalls

Global EV sales are still riding high, with 1.6 million EVs sold in July 2025, according to new data from global research firm Rho Motion. That’s up 21% from July last year, even though sales dipped 9% from June. It brings total EV sales for the first seven months of the year to 10.7 million – up 27% compared to the same period in 2024.

China stays on top

China continues to dominate, with 6.5 million EVs sold year-to-date, accounting for over half of all global EV sales. BEVs are still the top choice, with sales up 40% this year. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) didn’t fare as well, with domestic sales down 15% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year.

Even though Chinese EV sales dropped 13% in July from June, EVs made up over 50% of all passenger car sales for the third month in a row. The government is helping keep momentum going with another round of Q3 funding for its EV trade-in scheme, and a final 2025 round is expected in October.

Europe’s EV momentum is speeding up

Europe saw a 30% year-to-date jump in EV sales, reaching 2.3 million units. Germany and the UK are leading the pack – Germany’s up 43%, and the UK is up 32%. But France posted just a 9% year-over-year gain in July and is still down 11% for the year.

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To help turn things around, France is revamping its EV leasing program for low-income households starting September 30, aiming to support more than 50,000 purchases.

Meanwhile, Italy is the dark horse of 2025. Thanks to fresh incentives totaling around $700 million, EV sales are up 40%, and the country is quickly catching up to its neighbors. EV market share in Italy now stands at 11%, compared to 27% in Germany and over 30% in the UK.

North America stalls out except for one short-term boost

North America is lagging, with just a 2% bump in EV sales year-to-date. In the US, that’s partly due to policy uncertainty and tariffs. Automakers took a multi-billion-dollar hit in Q2, although some of that was offset by reduced requirements to buy zero-emission vehicle credits.

A spike in demand is expected in Q3, as buyers rush to take advantage of the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV tax credit before it expires on September 30, but a cooldown is then anticipated.

Some automakers are shifting their EV strategies: Ford recently announced a new “Universal EV Platform” and plans to launch a $30,000 midsize electric pickup with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries by 2027.

And on the trade front, the US has inked deals with South Korea, Japan, and the EU to impose a 15% tariff on imported cars.

The bottom line

Global EV sales are still charging ahead, even if the road is bumpy in some regions. China’s holding steady, Europe’s revving up, and North America’s waiting to see what happens next. Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “Despite regional variations, the overall trajectory for EV adoption in 2025 remains strongly upward.”

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Environment

Volkswagen is making some EV owners pay extra to unlock full potential

Published

13 hours ago

August 14, 2025

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Volkswagen is making some EV owners pay extra to unlock full potential

Another monthly subscription? Some Volkswagen EV drivers will now need to pay extra to unlock their vehicle’s full potential.

Volkswagen has put performance behind a paywall, at least for ID.3 drivers in the UK. The Volkswagen ID.3 Pro and Pro S are now listed with 201 hp on the UK website.

To unlock the vehicle’s full performance of 228 hp, drivers will now need to pay extra. You can choose from a monthly subscription, starting at £16.50 ($22) per month, or you can opt for a one-time lifetime fee of £649 ($880).

However, the one-time fee is attached to the vehicle, not the buyer. So if it’s sold, the upgrade goes with it. As Auto Express pointed out, the monthly payment is nearly three times that of a standard Netflix membership.

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Although the performance upgrade locks the extra power behind a paywall, Volkswagen said it doesn’t affect range.

Volkswagen isn’t the first, and likely not the last, to make drivers pay for their vehicles’ full potential. Remember when BMW tried to charge $18 a month for heated seats and other features in 2022?

Yeah, that didn’t go over so well. BMW has since dropped the subscription. Other brands, including Polestar, offer similar performance upgrades.

Will Volkswagen try to charge EV drivers in the US or other parts of Europe extra for performance? Given the backlash from BMW, it’s not likely. We’ll see how it goes over in the UK first.

The company is gearing up to launch a new series of entry-level EVs, starting with the ID.2 next year. An SUV version of the ID.2 is scheduled to launch shortly after, followed by the production version of the ID.1, which is set to arrive in 2027. Volkswagen is also considering a “mini Buzz” that could replace the Touran, but nothing has been confirmed.

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