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Tom Kaye of Plymouth, Pennsylvania tops off his neighbor’s gas tank for them on at a gas station in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 19, 2022. 

Aimee Dilger | Reuters

Oil prices are defying expectations and are barely higher on the year, as the outlook for oil demand continues to deteriorate for now.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January settled higher Monday at $77.24 per barrel, following a drop to $73.60 per barrel, the lowest price since last December. WTI was up 2.2% for the year, after briefly turning negative earlier Monday.

Gasoline prices at the pump have also been falling dramatically and could be cheaper than last year for many Americans by Christmas, according to an outlook from the Oil Price Information Service. On Monday, the national average was $3.546 per gallon of regular unleaded fuel, down from $3.662 a week ago but still higher than the $3.394 a year ago, according to AAA.

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‘Macro headwinds rather than tailwinds’

China’s lockdowns and the rare protests against Beijing this weekend have raised more doubt about the outlook for the country’s already weakened economy.

“We think the recessionary [forces] around the world, particularly in the three largest economies, are dominating the macro environment for the year as a whole, and we think that the issues we’ve been identifying as relatively bumpy in the period ahead are going to remain,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup. “Right now, we are looking at macro headwinds rather than tailwinds.”

Morse was one of the more bearish strategists on Wall Street in 2022, but he said the latest market developments and the hit to major economies made even his forecast too bullish. He had revised his outlook higher at the end of the third quarter, based on the shift by OPEC+ to focus on prices and the pending ban of Russian crude by Europe.

The oil market has been focused on those two potential catalysts for higher prices, but the impact on demand from the slowdown in China and new lockdowns has outweighed concerns about supply for now. The European Union’s ban on purchases of seaborne Russian oil takes place Dec. 5. The EU is also expected to announce price caps for Russian crude.

OPEC+ is also a factor. The group includes OPEC, plus other producers, including Russia. The group surprised the market in October when it approved a production cut of 2 million barrels a day.

“We’re waiting to see if they signal even deeper cuts. There were rumors in the market about that happening,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. After dipping to the day’s lows, oil rebounded on Monday as speculation circulated about new OPEC+ cuts, he said.

Brent futures, the international benchmark, was lower Monday afternoon at $83.19 per barrel, recovering from $80.61 per barrel, the lowest price since January.

“Right now the target is below $60 [for WTI]. That’s what the chart is indicating… this is a new low for the move because previously the low for the year was late September and now we’ve broken that,” said Kilduff. “It all depends on what happens in China. China is as important on the demand side, as OPEC+ is on the supply side.”

Higher oil prices next year?

Analysts expect oil prices to increase next year. JPMorgan predicts Brent will average $90 per barrel in 2023.

Morgan Stanley expects the return of much higher prices mid-year, after China ends lockdowns.

“Our balances point to modest oversupply in coming months. Hence, we see Brent prices range-bound in the mid-80s to high-90s first,” the firm’s analysts wrote. “However, the market will likely return to balance in 2Q23 and undersupply in 2H23. With limited supply buffer, we expect Brent to return to ~$110/bbl by the middle of next year.”

Kilduff said he does not expect OPEC+ to make a big market impact this year with its cuts, though it is a wild card. Another factor that could drive prices would be if the war in Ukraine were to escalate.

“I’m not that worried about an OPEC+ cut just because the reality of it is most of the countries aren’t going to be cutting. It’s only going to be Saudi Arabia dialing back on the edges,” he said. “Everyone is so far into their quota. It’s a numbers game.”

Morse said market dynamics have changed and oil demand growth will be smaller as a percentage of gross domestic product. “We’re seeing a significant slowdown in global growth,” he said.

Oil demand growth for China turned out to be much less than expected. “We were thinking demand was sluggish. It turned out to be significantly more sluggish… We had thought this year was going to see 3.4 million barrels of demand growth. It actually grew by 1.7 million barrels,” Morse said. He noted that Europe’s demand is down by several hundred thousand barrels, and the U.S. was flat in 2022.

Morse said the demand decline is also part of bigger trend, tied in part to the energy transition toward renewables. “We are also looking for the peak of oil demand in this decade. It’s part of a longer term story,” he said.

The weather’s influence

Kilduff said La Niña’s weather pattern has also affected prices, with warmer weather in North America. He and other analysts say it could continue to impact the market.

“We keep getting cold outlooks, and then it falters. This is La Niña. You will get cold days, but then you get balmy stretches,” Kilduff said. He said concerns about winter heating fuel supplies have abated with a build in supplies in Europe.

The result for consumers could be a windfall at the pump during the holiday season. OPIS expects prices to keep falling into January before turning higher again.

“If you combine the Chinese demonstrations with the warm weather in the northern hemisphere, that’s kind of a double-barreled assault on the energy price at the moment,” said Tom Kloza, global energy analyst at OPIS. He said he expects gasoline to average between $3 and $3.25 per gallon at its low, but it will be below $3 in many parts of the country.

Kloza said by Christmas, the U.S. national average should be slightly below the $3.28 level it was at last year.

Diesel prices have also been falling. According to AAA, diesel averaged $5.215 per gallon nationally Monday, off by about 8 cents per gallon from a week ago.

“We’ve been counter-seasonally building distillate fuel supply so that’s been easing things. If the weather stays relatively benign here, we’re going to lose that upside catalyst and grind lower still,” said Again’s Kilduff.

–Michael Bloom contributed to this story.

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Trump picks Liberty Energy CEO and Oklo board member Chris Wright as Energy secretary

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Trump picks Liberty Energy CEO and Oklo board member Chris Wright as Energy secretary

US President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, DC on November 13, 2024. 

Allison Robbert | AFP | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday selected Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to serve as the next energy secretary of the United States.

Liberty Energy is an oilfield services company headquartered in Denver with a $2.7 billion market capitalization. The company’s stock gained nearly 9% on Nov. 6 after Trump won the U.S. presidential election, but its shares have since pulled back.

Wright serves on the board of Oklo, a nuclear power startup backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that is developing micro reactors.

Wright will also serve on Trump’s Council of National Energy, the president-elect said Saturday. The council will be led by Trump’s pick for Interior Secretary, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Wright has denied that climate change presents a global crisis that needs to be addressed through a transition away from fossil fuels.

“There is no climate crisis and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition either,” Wright said in a video posted on his LinkedIn page last year. “Humans and all complex life on earth is simply impossible without carbon dioxide. Hence the term carbon pollution is outrageous.”

“There is no such thing as clean energy or dirty energy,” Wright said. “All energy sources have impacts on the world both positive and negative.”

Trump described Wright as a “leading technologist and entrepreneur in the energy sector.”

“He has worked in Nuclear, Solar, Geothermal, and Oil and Gas,” the president-elect said in a statement Saturday.

“Most significantly, Chris was one of the pioneers who helped launch the American Shale Revolution that fueled American Energy Independence, and transformed the Global Energy Markets and Geopolitics,” Trump said.

Trump has vowed to increase fossil fuel production to reduce energy costs, though analysts and some oil executives have said the president has little influence on oil and natural gas output in the U.S.

The U.S. has produced more crude oil than any other country in history, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, since 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration.

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New Kubota KATR farm robot concept wins CES innovation award

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New Kubota KATR farm robot concept wins CES innovation award

Kubota says its new KATR farm tractor concept raises the bar in autonomous, zero-emission farming – and it looks like they’ve convinced others, too. The robot just won “Best of Innovation” at the CES Innovation Awards.

Built as a follow-up to last year’s New Agri Concept electric autonomous farm tractor, the new Kubota KATR is a first of its kind, compact, four-wheeled robot with a stable cargo deck platform and stability control features that allow it to conduct work in demanding off-road agricultural and construction work environments, even on extreme hills and slopes.

The KATR was named best in the Industrial Equipment and Machinery product category by a panel of industry expert judges, including media, designers, and engineers who reviewed submissions based on innovation, engineering, aesthetics, and design.

Kubota seems pretty proud of themselves – and rightly so. “We have a long-standing philosophy that our products must be technically excellent, be productive and enjoyable for our customers, and also ensure the sustainability of limited resources. Ultimately, our goal is to improve the quality of life for individuals and society,” said Brett McMickell, Kubota North America Chief Technology Officer. “Given the versatility of the KATR, it has a wide range of applications specifically designed to enhance productivity in the agriculture and construction sectors.”

The KATR is designed to be powertrain agnostic – meaning it can be configured with either an electric or combustion engine, “reflecting Kubota’s commitment to customer choice without compromise.” As shown, it offers a load capacity of approx. 285 lbs. (just under 130 kg) and can be operated either remotely or with an onboard controller.

The CES Innovation Awards program is owned and produced by CTA, the host and organizer of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), which is recognized worldwide for its innovation awards as it is the most influential tech event on a global stage. CES 2025 is set to run from January 7-10, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada – and, of course, we’ll be there (again).

Electrek’s Take

Kubota KATR named as CES Innovation Awards® 2025 Best of Innovation; via Kubota.

Population growth, while slowing, is still very much a thing that is happening – and fewer and fewer people seem to be willing to do the work of growing the food that more and more people need to eat and live.

Autonomous and remote operation technology like that found in Kubota’s latest concept farm tractors multiplies the efforts of the farmers that do show up for work every day, and the fact that it’s more sustainable from both a fuel perspective and a chemical perspective makes it a two-time winner in my book.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Kubota, via PR Newswire.

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Owlet’s prototype sits between a moped and a bike and is a hoot to ride

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Owlet's prototype sits between a moped and a bike and is a hoot to ride

We got to ride a pre-production model of a striking new e-bike/e-moped, the Owlet One, with lots of power in a small package.

We first met Owlet at Electrify Expo in Long Beach, CA, where we only had a couple minutes on its bike. But since the company is headquartered nearby in Los Angeles, they emailed us asking if we’d like a longer test ride, and delivered a bike to us for to spend a few hours on this time.

Just to set the stage for this ride: Owlet is a new brand, preparing to ship its first bike. So to start off, we rode a prototype, not the finished version. This means it may come with different features, and we’re not entirely sure when it will ship, either.

The first thing to notice about the Owlet One is its design, which certainly stands out immediately. The bike is made of aviation-grade aluminum, though is still quite hefty, tipping the scales at 84 lbs (but it felt even heavier in our hands).

On top of Owlet’s striking design, the bike is also somewhat of a unique shape and size. Despite offering a format that looks similar to an e-bike at first glance, it rides more like a small moped. This actually puts its 84lb weight into a different perspective – rather than being heavy for a bike, it can be thought of as light for a moped.

But photographs can’t encapsulate everything about the design of the Owlet, because it has one totally unique feature: an adjustable wheelbase.

This can be done by one person in under a minute, though requires a socket wrench and a small amount of elbow grease.

In practice, I found that the adjustable wheelbase probably won’t come up much for riding purposes. The longest wheelbase (or close to it) was the most comfortable and stable to me, and shorter wheelbases were a bit more of a novelty, especially on this powerful bike which can get a little squirrelly on the shorter settings.

Another issue is that it changes the angle of the kickstand, which means you can’t really use the kickstand outside of a narrow wheelbase range. The final bike will supposedly have a different kickstand design, but this will likely be an issue regardless of how it’s redesigned.

But it was good for making the bike small enough to fit into places you might not normally be able to fit a moped-style bike. Between its narrow handlebars and shrunk down to its smallest 44-inch-long setting, it fit into the back of both a Tesla Model Y and an Audi A3 wagon (both with seats down), but not quite into a Model 3 – which I’ve fit multiple normal-sized bikes into the back of, though with the front wheel removed. Though its hefty weight does mean it can be awkward to lift the bike in there in the first place.

And it’s got more power than you’d expect out of most e-bikes too. With a 750W motor (3000W peak), there’s plenty of get up and go, and plenty to keep you going even as you reach closer to its 30mph top speed. This top speed can be lowered through the bike’s computer, to fit your local regulations.

Speaking of regulations, the bike is officially categorized as a motorized scooter, rather than an actual e-bike, as it doesn’t have pedals. It’s in a similar category to electric kick scooters, so you need to have any class of driver’s license to ride it, though it can be used either on or off public roads (but check your area’s regulations for sidewalk use, helmet requirements, and so on).

The shrouding on the front fork does restrict turning radius, but only when walking the bike in tight corners

The throttle we tested was a thumb throttle, though we would have preferred a twist throttle. The thumb throttle is just too twitchy, and on a bike with such peaky acceleration, it could get jumpy. This was especially true with shorter wheelbase settings. Owlet says there will be an option for a twist throttle when the bike ships, but we’d also like to see the software moderate acceleration on the very low end even with the thumb throttle.

And the bike is fully throttle-driven – there are no pedals, only pegs. Owlet plans to offer an option for pegs attached to the front to allow a different, more laid-back seating position.

The motor, kickstand and pegs. This is the final wheel design, rather than the traditional spoked design in Owlet’s press photos above

I tested the bike with a few accessories I had laying around, but because of the Owlet’s unique design, not all of them would fit (the handlebar cupholder seen in some of my photos doesn’t come with the bike, for example, which has no bottle cage mount). You’ll probably want a backpack if you’re planning to carry things on this bike, rather than saddlebags or the like.

The bike’s owl-like headlights fit well with the brand name. The charging outlet is in the “beak”

Owlet says the bike’s 1500Wh battery (made with 2170-format cells) can take you around 40-60 miles, and comes with a 350W charger for a ~5 hour charge. Based on our test ride, we think this range is reasonable or perhaps even conservative – but I’m also a pretty lightweight rider at 155lbs, and always remember that e-bike ranges vary widely depending on terrain and rider.

The seat has a very cool look to it and is comfortable to sit on, partially due to integrated seat suspension. The front fork also has 3.5 inches of suspension travel. I’d have liked for both suspensions to be a little looser, but that is again likely due to my relatively light weight.

All of this comes with a caveat: we rode a prototype here, not a final bike. So the bike was missing some final features, some features weren’t working (like the headlight), and so on. Owlet says that specifically the LCD and foot stands will be changed, but we imagine other tweaks are possible (we hope one of the LCD changes makes it easier to read with polarized sunglasses – it was a bit tough, which is true of many, but not all, bike computer screens).

Owlet also has plans for a future bike, the Owlet 2, which is more solidly in the moped category, with a less wild design and higher range and top speed. Owlet shared an early prototype fact sheet with us, but given the One is already a bit of a ways out from delivery, don’t hold your breath for the 2 yet.

In short, the Owlet is a fun, quirky ride with a very design-forward ethos. If you’re looking for a bike that doesn’t look like any other, it could be worth looking into. Though it’s definitely on the unorthodox side and you have to be willing to accept its eccentricities when compared to more conventional two-wheeled devices.

The company is taking $50 refundable deposits for its bike, which it has said it wants to ship around March – but it also says that it’s waiting for a minimum batch quantity of preorders first, and that shipments would take 3-6 months after that, so we imagine March could be optimistic. If you want to get in line, you can reserve one here.

The bike will cost $3,995, though early reservers can get it for $2,995, along with an engraved serial number and a 1 year warranty/service package. Owlet wants to have service locations around LA and possibly one in New York, to begin with. It will distribute the bikes by shipping them directly to customers.


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