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England is in with a shot, but Wales’ chances are slim.

Brazil is still the favourite, according to Stats Perform’s artificial intelligence model, which estimates the probability of every match outcome using team rankings and betting odds based on historical team performance.

The model then uses match outcome probabilities to factor in the strength of the opposing teams and the difficulty of their path to the final to come up with the likelihood that each team will win.

Select your team below to see how likely they are to lift the trophy this year.

How far is each team expected to get?

Here are the teams that the model from Stats Perform and Opta predicts will make it through to the later rounds of the tournament.

The games below are based on the likelihood that each team reaches that round, which differs from their chance of winning the tournament.

How are England and Wales performing on the pitch?

The charts below show how many goals they have scored in their games so far compared to the last World Cup for England and Euro 2020 for Wales.

It also shows how many goals they were expected to score given the quality of chances created.

What about individual players?

Football statistics website FotMob calculates a score for each players’ performance out of 10 using more than 300 individual data points.

Here’s how they all compare.

We’re also comparing World Cup performances with players’ scores in their league games this season to see whether they’re living up to their potential.

The chart below shows how much scores from the World Cup differ from the pre-tournament average.

We will keep updating this page throughout the tournament with the latest predictions and performance data.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Why data journalism matters to Sky News

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Girl, 7, dies after tree collapses at park in Southend

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Girl, 7, dies after tree collapses at park in Southend

One girl has died and another is in a critical condition after a tree partially collapsed at a park in Essex.

The girls, aged seven and six, suffered serious injuries when they were among a number of children caught beneath the tree at Chalkwell Park in Southend.

Essex Police confirmed the seven-year-old girl died in hospital and her family is receiving support from specialist officers.

Three other children suffered minor injuries following the incident.

An East of England Ambulance Service spokesperson said: “We were called at 2.55pm to reports that a tree had fallen in Chalkwell Park in Chalkwell.

“Six ambulances, three ambulance officer vehicles, the London Air Ambulance and Kent Air Ambulance were sent to the scene.”

Map showing the location of Chalkwell Park in Essex

Police said an investigation is continuing into what caused the tree to collapse.

‘Unimaginable hardship’ for families

Chief Superintendent Leighton Hammett said: “Families are facing unimaginable hardship this evening and all of our thoughts are with them at this time.

“I cannot begin to put into words how difficult today’s events have been, and continue to be, for them.

“It’s also not lost on me how traumatic it must have been for the members of the public who witnessed this awful incident.

“Across a matter of moments, many of them went from enjoying the warm summer weather to rushing to the aid of strangers without a second thought.”

Chief Sup Hammett also paid tribute to police, ambulance and fire crews who “did all they could,” adding that “today’s loss is one they will all take personally”.

Death is ‘truly devastating’

Local MP David Burton-Sampson said: “The news of the sad death of one of the children involved in the incident at Chalkwell Park today is truly devastating.

“I am sure I reflect the thoughts of all our residents here in Southend in sending my deepest condolences to the child’s family and friends.

“My thoughts are also with the other children injured and I wish them a full and speedy recovery.

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Hundreds of NHS quangos to be axed – as plans unveiled for health funding to be linked to patient feedback

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Hundreds of NHS quangos to be axed - as plans unveiled for health funding to be linked to patient feedback

NHS funding could be linked to patient feedback under new plans, with poorly performing services that “don’t listen” penalised with less money.

As part of the “10 Year Health Plan” to be unveiled next week, a new scheme will be trialled that will see patients asked to rate the service they received – and if they feel it should get a funding boost or not.

It will be introduced first for services that have a track record of very poor performance and where there is evidence of patients “not being listened to”, the government said.

This will create a “powerful incentive for services to listen to feedback and improve patients’ experience”, it added.

Sky News understands that it will not mean bonuses or pay increases for the best performing staff.

NHS payment mechanisms will also be reformed to reward services that keep patients out of hospital as part of a new ‘Year of Care Payments’ initiative and the government’s wider plan for change.

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Speaking to The Times, chief executive of the NHS Confederation Matthew Taylor expressed concerns about the trial.

He told the newspaper: “Patient experience is determined by far more than their individual interaction with the clinician and so, unless this is very carefully designed and evaluated, there is a risk that providers could be penalised for more systemic issues, such as constraints around staffing or estates, that are beyond their immediate control to fix.”

He said that NHS leaders would be keen to “understand more about the proposal”, because elements were “concerning”.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We will reward great patient care, so patient experience and clinical excellence are met with extra cash. These reforms are key to keeping people healthy and out of hospital, and to making the NHS sustainable for the long-term as part of the Plan for Change.”

In the raft of announcements in the 10 Year Health Plan, the government has said 201 bodies responsible for overseeing and running parts of the NHS in England – known as quangos – will be scrapped.

These include Healthwatch England, set up in 2012 to speak out on behalf of NHS and social care patients, the National Guardian’s Office, created in 2015 to support NHS whistleblowers, and the Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB).

The head of the Royal College of Nursing described the move as “so unsafe for patients right now”.

Professor Nicola Ranger said: “Today, in hospitals across the NHS, we know one nurse can be left caring for 10, 15 or more patients at a time. It’s not safe. It’s not effective. And it’s not acceptable.

“For these proposed changes to be effective, government must take ownership of the real issue, the staffing crisis on our wards, and not just shuffle people into new roles. Protecting patients has to be the priority and not just a drive for efficiency.”

Elsewhere, the new head of NHS England Sir Jim Mackey said key parts of the NHS appear “built to keep the public away because it’s an inconvenience”.

“We’ve made it really hard, and we’ve probably all been on the end of it,” he told the Daily Telegraph.

“The ward clerk only works nine to five, or they’re busy doing other stuff; the GP practice scrambles every morning.”

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Cocaine haul worth nearly £100m seized in one of UK’s biggest-ever drugs busts

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Cocaine haul worth nearly £100m seized in one of UK's biggest-ever drugs busts

A haul of cocaine worth nearly £100m has been seized at a UK port, authorities say.

The haul, weighing 2.4 tonnes, was found under containers on a ship arriving from Panama at London Gateway port in Thurrock, Essex.

It had been detected earlier this year after an intelligence-led operation but was intercepted as it arrived in the UK this week.

With the help of the port operator, 37 large containers were moved to uncover the drugs, worth an estimated £96m.

The haul is the sixth-largest cocaine seizure in UK history, according to Border Force.

Its maritime director Charlie Eastaugh said: “This seizure – one of the largest of its kind – is just one example of how dedicated Border Force maritime officers remain one step ahead of the criminal gangs who threaten our security.

“Our message to these criminals is clear – more than ever before, we are using intelligence and international law enforcement cooperation to disrupt and dismantle your operations.”

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Container ships are one of the main ways international gangs smuggle Class A drugs into the UK, Mr Eastaugh said.

Cocaine deaths in England and Wales increased by 31% between 2022 and 2023, according to the latest Home Office data.

Elsewhere this weekend, a separate haul of 170 kilos of ketamine, 4,000 MDMA pills, and 20 firearms were found on a lorry at Dover Port in Kent.

One of the 20 firearms found at Dover Port. Pic: NCA
Image:
One of the 20 firearms found at Dover Port. Pic: NCA

Experts estimate the ketamine’s street value to be £4.5m, with the MDMA worth at least £40,000.

The driver of the lorry, a 34-year-old Tajikistan national, was arrested at the scene on suspicion of smuggling the items, the National Crime Agency said.

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