South Africa’s economy at a pivotal point as outlook improves but political, energy risks remain
LONDON – South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa speaks during a press conference in central London on November 24, 2022
JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images
South Africa’s long-awaited economic reforms have begun to improve the country’s outlook, but the age-old problems of political uncertainty and a failing power system still pose significant risks.
The Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan has been a key tenet of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s agenda since he succeeded Jacob Zuma as the country’s leader in 2018. But deep divisions within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and his own cabinet have made for sluggish progress.
The suite of reforms — focused on energy security, infrastructure development, food security, job creation and the green transition — is designed to create a “sustainable, resilient and inclusive economy,” the government says.
And — some at least — appear to be working. S&P Global Ratings earlier this month affirmed its positive outlook on the country, saying that government measures to stimulate private sector activity could boost growth, and the measures had the potential to ease economic pressures.
“There is some hope in the public finances in South Africa, mainly due to the increase in government revenues as a result of higher commodity exports, and also due to the progress made in reducing debt and debt distress, and to ushering a public deficit,” Aleix Montana, Africa analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC last week.
However, political frailties and persistent issues at a state-owned utility continue to pose present economic risks.
Ramaphosa faces a “perfect storm of inflation, electricity cuts and corruption accusations that will continue to deteriorate South Africa’s profile and to pose risk for investments in the country,” Montana said.
A report into an alleged corruption scandal surrounding Ramaphosa is set to be examined by the National Assembly on Dec. 6, just 10 days before the party conference of his ruling ANC (African National Congress).
Energy woes
Though Ramaphosa is expected to secure a second five-year term, Montana said he will have to improve his credibility on economic and anti-corruption reforms in order to continue pushing through his agenda. The economy also remains at risk from persistent disruptions at state-owned companies, such as power utility Eskom.
South Africans have faced rolling blackouts as Eskom — which has long been a thorn in the side of the country’s economy — contends with shortfalls in generation capacity due to equipment failures and diesel shortages.
The company has warned that power outages, known as “load-shedding,” will continue for the next six to 12 months, and recently said it had run out of funds to acquire the diesel needed to run auxiliary power plants that are deployed during periods of peak consumption or emergencies.
Montana said that in order to secure sustained economic growth, the South African government will need to prioritize energy sustainability.
“Energy will require financial assistance from international players, but they will also need to ensure that it doesn’t have a negative impact on South African society,” he said.
“Apart from financial challenges, a lot of citizens of South Africa are employed in Eskom or in the fossil fuels sector, so the government will need to ensure that in their plan, they mitigate this potential impact of transitioning from a fossil fuels-based economy to the implementation of renewables in order to sustain electricity stability.”
Asked about this issue on a recent state visit to the U.K., Ramaphosa told CNBC’s Arabile Gumede that the problems at Eskom started long before 2014, when former President Jacob Zuma appointed him to address the country’s energy problems.
“As we are generating electricity, power stations keep breaking — many of them are old — but we are trying with a new boat, the management that’s in place to address this problem,” Ramaphosa said.
“So the problems of Eskom were seeds that were planted many years ago, rather than in 2014, and because we’re dealing with huge, complicated and complex machinery, it’s not a one-day fix, it can never be as these are very complex processes.”
He added that the government was working to reduce load-shedding requirements and to “ensure that the money’s there,” noting that Eskom “used to be the best utility in the world.”
“Do I have confidence that we will solve these problems? Yes, I do. I do have enormous confidence that we will solve them,” he said.
“But I think it’s important to have an appreciation of where we’ve come from, and obviously, it is very easy to put all the blame on the president, to put all the blame on the government, and yet these problems have come way back from the past.”
‘Taming the monster’ of inflation
Along with the domestic issues unique to South Africa, the country also faces the same inflationary pressures that have plagued economies around the world over the past year.
Annual headline inflation rose to 7.6% in October, defying the South African Reserve Bank’s expectations for price pressures to ease. This prompted the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike interest rates by an aggressive 75 basis points last week, taking the benchmark repo rate to 7%.
This marked the seventh consecutive meeting at which monetary policy had been tightened, and central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said in a press conference that it must “tame the monster of inflation.”
With prices rising much faster than the central bank’s 3-6% target, Kganyago noted that the SARB needs to see clear evidence that inflation has not just peaked, but begun to sustainably decline toward the midpoint of the range.
But further monetary tightening will place additional pressure on the economy.
“We think that inflation is unlikely to return within the target range (let alone the midpoint) in the coming months, keeping policymakers in tightening mode well into 2023,” said Virág Fórizs, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
She flagged that food inflation continues to increase, offsetting some of the effects of softening fuel price pressures, while core inflation is likely to remain high. Capital Economics expects inflation to hover around 7.5% annually until early 2023, before dropping markedly around the middle of the year.
Fórizs said the weakness of the economy is unlikely to prevent further rate hikes, with growth concerns playing second fiddle to inflation worries. South African GDP contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter.
“While the end of the tightening cycle is not yet in sight, we expect the pace of tightening to slow over the next MPC meetings,” she noted.
Three MPC members voted to hike rates by 75 basis points last week, while two voted for 50 basis points. It marked an apparent softening of approach by some who voted for a 100-basis-point rise at the previous meeting.
“All in all, we’ve penciled in 100bp of further increases in the repo rate, to 8.00%, by Q2 2023,” Fórizs said.
Kubota says its new KATR farm tractor concept raises the bar in autonomous, zero-emission farming – and it looks like they’ve convinced others, too. The robot just won “Best of Innovation” at the CES Innovation Awards.
Built as a follow-up to last year’s New Agri Concept electric autonomous farm tractor, the new Kubota KATR is a first of its kind, compact, four-wheeled robot with a stable cargo deck platform and stability control features that allow it to conduct work in demanding off-road agricultural and construction work environments, even on extreme hills and slopes.
The KATR was named best in the Industrial Equipment and Machinery product category by a panel of industry expert judges, including media, designers, and engineers who reviewed submissions based on innovation, engineering, aesthetics, and design.
Kubota seems pretty proud of themselves – and rightly so. “We have a long-standing philosophy that our products must be technically excellent, be productive and enjoyable for our customers, and also ensure the sustainability of limited resources. Ultimately, our goal is to improve the quality of life for individuals and society,” said Brett McMickell, Kubota North America Chief Technology Officer. “Given the versatility of the KATR, it has a wide range of applications specifically designed to enhance productivity in the agriculture and construction sectors.”
The KATR is designed to be powertrain agnostic – meaning it can be configured with either an electric or combustion engine, “reflecting Kubota’s commitment to customer choice without compromise.” As shown, it offers a load capacity of approx. 285 lbs. (just under 130 kg) and can be operated either remotely or with an onboard controller.
The CES Innovation Awards program is owned and produced by CTA, the host and organizer of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), which is recognized worldwide for its innovation awards as it is the most influential tech event on a global stage. CES 2025 is set to run from January 7-10, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada – and, of course, we’ll be there (again).
Electrek’s Take
Population growth, while slowing, is still very much a thing that is happening – and fewer and fewer people seem to be willing to do the work of growing the food that more and more people need to eat and live.
Autonomous and remote operation technology like that found in Kubota’s latest concept farm tractors multiplies the efforts of the farmers that do show up for work every day, and the fact that it’s more sustainable from both a fuel perspective and a chemical perspective makes it a two-time winner in my book.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Kubota, via PR Newswire.
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We got to ride a pre-production model of a striking new e-bike/e-moped, the Owlet One, with lots of power in a small package.
We first met Owlet at Electrify Expo in Long Beach, CA, where we only had a couple minutes on its bike. But since the company is headquartered nearby in Los Angeles, they emailed us asking if we’d like a longer test ride, and delivered a bike to us for to spend a few hours on this time.
Just to set the stage for this ride: Owlet is a new brand, preparing to ship its first bike. So to start off, we rode a prototype, not the finished version. This means it may come with different features, and we’re not entirely sure when it will ship, either.
The first thing to notice about the Owlet One is its design, which certainly stands out immediately. The bike is made of aviation-grade aluminum, though is still quite hefty, tipping the scales at 84 lbs (but it felt even heavier in our hands).
On top of Owlet’s striking design, the bike is also somewhat of a unique shape and size. Despite offering a format that looks similar to an e-bike at first glance, it rides more like a small moped. This actually puts its 84lb weight into a different perspective – rather than being heavy for a bike, it can be thought of as light for a moped.
But photographs can’t encapsulate everything about the design of the Owlet, because it has one totally unique feature: an adjustable wheelbase.
This can be done by one person in under a minute, though requires a socket wrench and a small amount of elbow grease.
In practice, I found that the adjustable wheelbase probably won’t come up much for riding purposes. The longest wheelbase (or close to it) was the most comfortable and stable to me, and shorter wheelbases were a bit more of a novelty, especially on this powerful bike which can get a little squirrelly on the shorter settings.
Another issue is that it changes the angle of the kickstand, which means you can’t really use the kickstand outside of a narrow wheelbase range. The final bike will supposedly have a different kickstand design, but this will likely be an issue regardless of how it’s redesigned.
But it was good for making the bike small enough to fit into places you might not normally be able to fit a moped-style bike. Between its narrow handlebars and shrunk down to its smallest 44-inch-long setting, it fit into the back of both a Tesla Model Y and an Audi A3 wagon (both with seats down), but not quite into a Model 3 – which I’ve fit multiple normal-sized bikes into the back of, though with the front wheel removed. Though its hefty weight does mean it can be awkward to lift the bike in there in the first place.
And it’s got more power than you’d expect out of most e-bikes too. With a 750W motor (3000W peak), there’s plenty of get up and go, and plenty to keep you going even as you reach closer to its 30mph top speed. This top speed can be lowered through the bike’s computer, to fit your local regulations.
Speaking of regulations, the bike is officially categorized as a motorized scooter, rather than an actual e-bike, as it doesn’t have pedals. It’s in a similar category to electric kick scooters, so you need to have any class of driver’s license to ride it, though it can be used either on or off public roads (but check your area’s regulations for sidewalk use, helmet requirements, and so on).
The throttle we tested was a thumb throttle, though we would have preferred a twist throttle. The thumb throttle is just too twitchy, and on a bike with such peaky acceleration, it could get jumpy. This was especially true with shorter wheelbase settings. Owlet says there will be an option for a twist throttle when the bike ships, but we’d also like to see the software moderate acceleration on the very low end even with the thumb throttle.
And the bike is fully throttle-driven – there are no pedals, only pegs. Owlet plans to offer an option for pegs attached to the front to allow a different, more laid-back seating position.
I tested the bike with a few accessories I had laying around, but because of the Owlet’s unique design, not all of them would fit (the handlebar cupholder seen in some of my photos doesn’t come with the bike, for example, which has no bottle cage mount). You’ll probably want a backpack if you’re planning to carry things on this bike, rather than saddlebags or the like.
Owlet says the bike’s 1500Wh battery (made with 2170-format cells) can take you around 40-60 miles, and comes with a 350W charger for a ~5 hour charge. Based on our test ride, we think this range is reasonable or perhaps even conservative – but I’m also a pretty lightweight rider at 155lbs, and always remember that e-bike ranges vary widely depending on terrain and rider.
The seat has a very cool look to it and is comfortable to sit on, partially due to integrated seat suspension. The front fork also has 3.5 inches of suspension travel. I’d have liked for both suspensions to be a little looser, but that is again likely due to my relatively light weight.
All of this comes with a caveat: we rode a prototype here, not a final bike. So the bike was missing some final features, some features weren’t working (like the headlight), and so on. Owlet says that specifically the LCD and foot stands will be changed, but we imagine other tweaks are possible (we hope one of the LCD changes makes it easier to read with polarized sunglasses – it was a bit tough, which is true of many, but not all, bike computer screens).
Owlet also has plans for a future bike, the Owlet 2, which is more solidly in the moped category, with a less wild design and higher range and top speed. Owlet shared an early prototype fact sheet with us, but given the One is already a bit of a ways out from delivery, don’t hold your breath for the 2 yet.
In short, the Owlet is a fun, quirky ride with a very design-forward ethos. If you’re looking for a bike that doesn’t look like any other, it could be worth looking into. Though it’s definitely on the unorthodox side and you have to be willing to accept its eccentricities when compared to more conventional two-wheeled devices.
The company is taking $50 refundable deposits for its bike, which it has said it wants to ship around March – but it also says that it’s waiting for a minimum batch quantity of preorders first, and that shipments would take 3-6 months after that, so we imagine March could be optimistic. If you want to get in line, you can reserve one here.
The bike will cost $3,995, though early reservers can get it for $2,995, along with an engraved serial number and a 1 year warranty/service package. Owlet wants to have service locations around LA and possibly one in New York, to begin with. It will distribute the bikes by shipping them directly to customers.
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