South Africa’s economy at a pivotal point as outlook improves but political, energy risks remain
LONDON – South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa speaks during a press conference in central London on November 24, 2022
JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images
South Africa’s long-awaited economic reforms have begun to improve the country’s outlook, but the age-old problems of political uncertainty and a failing power system still pose significant risks.
The Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan has been a key tenet of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s agenda since he succeeded Jacob Zuma as the country’s leader in 2018. But deep divisions within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and his own cabinet have made for sluggish progress.
The suite of reforms — focused on energy security, infrastructure development, food security, job creation and the green transition — is designed to create a “sustainable, resilient and inclusive economy,” the government says.
And — some at least — appear to be working. S&P Global Ratings earlier this month affirmed its positive outlook on the country, saying that government measures to stimulate private sector activity could boost growth, and the measures had the potential to ease economic pressures.
“There is some hope in the public finances in South Africa, mainly due to the increase in government revenues as a result of higher commodity exports, and also due to the progress made in reducing debt and debt distress, and to ushering a public deficit,” Aleix Montana, Africa analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC last week.
However, political frailties and persistent issues at a state-owned utility continue to pose present economic risks.
Ramaphosa faces a “perfect storm of inflation, electricity cuts and corruption accusations that will continue to deteriorate South Africa’s profile and to pose risk for investments in the country,” Montana said.
A report into an alleged corruption scandal surrounding Ramaphosa is set to be examined by the National Assembly on Dec. 6, just 10 days before the party conference of his ruling ANC (African National Congress).
Energy woes
Though Ramaphosa is expected to secure a second five-year term, Montana said he will have to improve his credibility on economic and anti-corruption reforms in order to continue pushing through his agenda. The economy also remains at risk from persistent disruptions at state-owned companies, such as power utility Eskom.
South Africans have faced rolling blackouts as Eskom — which has long been a thorn in the side of the country’s economy — contends with shortfalls in generation capacity due to equipment failures and diesel shortages.
The company has warned that power outages, known as “load-shedding,” will continue for the next six to 12 months, and recently said it had run out of funds to acquire the diesel needed to run auxiliary power plants that are deployed during periods of peak consumption or emergencies.
Montana said that in order to secure sustained economic growth, the South African government will need to prioritize energy sustainability.
“Energy will require financial assistance from international players, but they will also need to ensure that it doesn’t have a negative impact on South African society,” he said.
“Apart from financial challenges, a lot of citizens of South Africa are employed in Eskom or in the fossil fuels sector, so the government will need to ensure that in their plan, they mitigate this potential impact of transitioning from a fossil fuels-based economy to the implementation of renewables in order to sustain electricity stability.”
Asked about this issue on a recent state visit to the U.K., Ramaphosa told CNBC’s Arabile Gumede that the problems at Eskom started long before 2014, when former President Jacob Zuma appointed him to address the country’s energy problems.
“As we are generating electricity, power stations keep breaking — many of them are old — but we are trying with a new boat, the management that’s in place to address this problem,” Ramaphosa said.
“So the problems of Eskom were seeds that were planted many years ago, rather than in 2014, and because we’re dealing with huge, complicated and complex machinery, it’s not a one-day fix, it can never be as these are very complex processes.”
He added that the government was working to reduce load-shedding requirements and to “ensure that the money’s there,” noting that Eskom “used to be the best utility in the world.”
“Do I have confidence that we will solve these problems? Yes, I do. I do have enormous confidence that we will solve them,” he said.
“But I think it’s important to have an appreciation of where we’ve come from, and obviously, it is very easy to put all the blame on the president, to put all the blame on the government, and yet these problems have come way back from the past.”
‘Taming the monster’ of inflation
Along with the domestic issues unique to South Africa, the country also faces the same inflationary pressures that have plagued economies around the world over the past year.
Annual headline inflation rose to 7.6% in October, defying the South African Reserve Bank’s expectations for price pressures to ease. This prompted the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike interest rates by an aggressive 75 basis points last week, taking the benchmark repo rate to 7%.
This marked the seventh consecutive meeting at which monetary policy had been tightened, and central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said in a press conference that it must “tame the monster of inflation.”
With prices rising much faster than the central bank’s 3-6% target, Kganyago noted that the SARB needs to see clear evidence that inflation has not just peaked, but begun to sustainably decline toward the midpoint of the range.
But further monetary tightening will place additional pressure on the economy.
“We think that inflation is unlikely to return within the target range (let alone the midpoint) in the coming months, keeping policymakers in tightening mode well into 2023,” said Virág Fórizs, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
She flagged that food inflation continues to increase, offsetting some of the effects of softening fuel price pressures, while core inflation is likely to remain high. Capital Economics expects inflation to hover around 7.5% annually until early 2023, before dropping markedly around the middle of the year.
Fórizs said the weakness of the economy is unlikely to prevent further rate hikes, with growth concerns playing second fiddle to inflation worries. South African GDP contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter.
“While the end of the tightening cycle is not yet in sight, we expect the pace of tightening to slow over the next MPC meetings,” she noted.
Three MPC members voted to hike rates by 75 basis points last week, while two voted for 50 basis points. It marked an apparent softening of approach by some who voted for a 100-basis-point rise at the previous meeting.
“All in all, we’ve penciled in 100bp of further increases in the repo rate, to 8.00%, by Q2 2023,” Fórizs said.
For the better part of a year, Tesla has been promising “more affordable models” to replace the cancelled “Model 2.” The new models were supposed to go into production in the next 2 days, but it sure feels like that might not happen, because nobody’s heard anything at all about them.
For several years now, Tesla has been teasing everyone with the promise of more affordable models.
While the Tesla Model 3 is pretty reasonably priced, many were waiting for a promised $25,000 model, which many had taken to calling the “Model 2.”
Tesla was supposedly going to pursue a new revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing method to get costs down for the future vehicle, to enable this lower price.
However, last year Tesla CEO Elon Musk refocused the company’s efforts on its much–delayed Robotaxi project, which finally launched last weekend in limited form in Austin, to mixed results. The company also wants to release a purpose-built Robotaxi vehicle called the Cybercab, which is first showed off last October. It plans to its unboxed manufacturing method for the Cybercab.
Along with this, Musk cancelled plans for a $25,000 vehicle, as first reported by Reuters and immediately denied by Musk. Reuters was later shown to be correct in its report. Musk routinely denies true media reports.
Despite canceling $25k Tesla, “more affordable models” were teased
Even after canceling plans for the $25,000 “Model 2,” Tesla continued to say it was working on “more affordable models.” It started including that phrase in its quarterly reports in April 2024, in its Q1 report. At the time, it said it had “updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.”
In each report since then, Tesla has reiterated that “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.”
The most recent inclusion of this phrase is in Tesla’s Q1 2025 report, which was released on April 22 of this year. Again, Tesla said that these models were on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.
On that Q1 call, Tesla’s head of vehicle engineering, Lars Moravy, answered a question about the company’s more affordable models thusly:
Yeah, we’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through like the last-minute issues that pop up. We’re not getting down one by one. At this point, I would say that ramp maybe — might be a little slower than we had hoped initially, but there’s nothing, just kind of given the turmoil that exists in the industry right now. But there’s nothing blocking us from starting production within the next — within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks. And I will say, it’s important to emphasize that as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and the design of it is really limited to what we can do in our existing lines rather than build new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles. And that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the big, new lowest price to the market within the constraints of selling.
That was said only two months ago, when Tesla should have had good visibility on the imminent start of production of new models. And the first half of 2025 ends on June 30, two days from now. As of yet, we have heard nothing more about it.
We should have heard something by now
Typically, in advance of the launch of a new model, we will get some sort of information. Rarely can a company, especially on with such a magnifying glass over everything it does, get away with a secret launch of something like a car. There’d be camouflaged vehicles, supplier reports, leaks from the inside, or something of the sort. Yet we’ve seen very little.
Now… Tesla did say that it would start production, rather than start sales, within the first half of this year. So they don’t have to have it ready on the lot, and even starting trial production could kind of qualify.
But even then – Tesla has never launched a surprise vehicle before without telling everyone about it well ahead of time. Tesla is known for its big hype vehicle unveilings, which often come many years before deliveries begin. Even new trim levels, like performance models, are usually known about months ahead of time.
The last time Tesla did pull off an unexpected vehicle launch was the next-gen Roadster, but that was 8 years ago, and it still hasn’t gone into production. Even the Robovan concept unveiled at the Cybercab event, which wasn’t expected at that particular event, had seen leaks years prior.
It might just be a stripped down Model 3/Y
Another wrinkle is that Tesla has never really detailed exactly what the phrase “more affordable models” means.
As best we can tell, the plan is to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3/Y, rather than an actual new model. However, in that case, the inclusion of the word “models” is strange, since that suggests an actual new model (or multiple new models) rather than just a cheaper version of an existing one.
Tesla could really use a boost right now
Importantly, now would be a good time for Tesla to have a more affordable model. The company is suffering from a huge sales decline in almost every territory where it sells – partially due to an aging product line, with only one new model released in the last 6 years, the Cybertruck… and it’s a flop.
The Model Y, Tesla’s most popular vehicle, did recently get a refresh, but that has failed to slow Tesla’s sales decline.
And there’s a lot of competition coming right now, too. In China, 4 Model Y competitors are launching this month – starting with the Xiaomi YU7 which was just announced and got 200,000 orders in 3 minutes.
Beyond the lack of a cheaper model, another reason for Tesla’s sales decline is CEO Elon Musk’s political activity, which included becoming the largest funder of anti-EV forces, along with showing support for German neo-Nazis, agreeing with a defense of Hitler’s actions in the Holocaust, and many other white supremacist statements.
These actions have driven protests against the company, embarrassed owners and pushed many customers away – and those protesters aren’t planning on stopping.
And while Musk also continues to promise world-changing innovations at Tesla (whenever he looks away from his phone for two seconds), few of them have materialized. Tesla is supposed to change the world in 6 ways this year (Semi, Roadster, unsupervised FSD, Cybercab, Optimus, and the “affordable EV”), and halfway through the year, has so far achieved none of them.
So, given that releasing an eyesore didn’t work, updating its most popular vehicle didn’t work, overpromising world-changing innovations didn’t work, and the CEO acting like a nazi at every possible turn didn’t work, maybe the company should try the one thing it hasn’t: a more affordable model. But Tesla, so far, has declined this strategy – despite teasing us for so long with the idea.
Now, we do still have two days, so who knows, maybe we’ll get some sort of announcement imminently. It is possible, for example, that Tesla is saving its announcement for the very end of the quarter, so as not to spoil its traditional end-of-quarter sales rush (on what is already expected to be a poor sales quarter). But if it does happen, we will be surprised. And if the change is anything more than a mildly de-contented Model 3/Y, we may even be impressed.
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TQ, the German force behind some of the lightest and quietest e-bike motors on the market, just took a leap forward – again. Barely weeks after debuting the lightweight HPR60 e-bike drive system, the company has introduced the HPR40, now claiming the title of the lightest and most efficient mid-drive motor in the world.
Tailored for road and gravel e-bikes, the HPR40 clocks in at just 1.17 kg (2.6 lb). That means it has slashed nearly half the weight of the previous HPR60, which weighed 1.92 kg (4.2 lb).
Despite being smaller, it still delivers a respectable 40 Nm of torque and up to 200W of peak power, making it ideal for riders seeking subtle assist rather than brute force. This isn’t about raw horsepower; it’s about efficiency and seamless integration.
Don’t expect to see it on the next 750W Lectric or Aventon, but look for it on higher-end gravel and road e-bikes where riders are looking for a modest boost instead of a powerful burst.
Unlike motors that have been rebadged from their original use on mountain bikes or commuters, TQ designed the HPR40 from scratch for lighter frames, aiming to remain nearly invisible on a bike’s bottom bracket and with controls hidden inside the handlebar. The result is a drive system that blends into the bike like a whisper, offering performance without the bulk.
At the heart of the HPR motor is TQ’s Harmonic Pin-Ring Transmission, which is a refined drivetrain rearranged to live fully inside a bike in place of the bottom bracket. This clever design eliminates noisy gears, reduces friction, and lets the motor engage instantly with zero lag. While that might sound like many mid-drives we regularly see from manufacturers like Bosch, TQ’s is so small and so deeply integrated that it’s barely visible to a casual observer.
The HPR40 pairs with a 290Wh battery that weighs just 1.46 kg (3.2 lb) and is hidden inside the downtube. There’s also a water bottle-sized 160 Wh range extender available, keeping total system weight under 2.7 kg (6 lbs). That’s one of the lightest fully integrated e-bike systems out there.
Control comes via a hidden handlebar remote hidden under the handlebar tape, and a sleek end-cap LED display keeps essentials in view without disrupting aesthetics. This stripped-down interface reinforces TQ’s philosophy: get out of the rider’s way. Or as New Atlas humorously described it, “it’s almost as if the company is daring riders to start a fresh round of mechanical doping scandals.”
TQ’s HPR40 isn’t just a fancy new drive system in a display booth, it’s already built into the new Canyon Endurace:ONFly, a sub‑10 kg (22 lb) e-road bike that tips the scales at just 9.9 kg. The Endurace:ONFly marries TQ’s whisper-soft assist with Canyon’s aerodynamic finesse, offering riders a bike that feels analog but rides electric.
The HPR40’s high torque density means riders can double their pedaling output with a modest 200 W boost. That translates to better climbs, longer rides, and a natural ride feel, all without the compromises of heavier systems. Considering that many riders can put out around 200W of constant power by themselves, the effect is like having a tandem rider along helping out, except that he only weighs 6 pounds.
The move shows that not every drive maker is merely chasing horsepower and torque figures. Instead, by merging elegant design, noticeable yet natural power, and light weight, TQ is proving that electric assistance doesn’t have to scream. It can whisper.
Electrek’s Take
Here’s the real story: the HPR40 isn’t just a technical footnote, it’s a signal. It shows that electric bike engineering is transitioning from brute force toward a future that also includes invisible, intuitive power systems. For riders chasing the delicate line between analog feel and electric assist, this is a breakthrough.
And considering that many riders are reaching an age where their mind wants to do the kind of rides that their body might no longer be capable of, systems like these can keep those riders in the saddle for longer. That’s many more years of keeping the good times rolling (and keeping the body young by continuing regular exercise).
Now the question is whether other brands will follow suit. Will we see this ultra-light motor trickle down into commuter e‑bikes or adventure-ready gravel rigs? If so, the day when an e‑bike feels exactly like a bike, but gives you a little assist when you need it most, just got much closer.
TQ is playing a long game: subtle, smart, and purpose-built. The HPR40 is merely the first move, and if this is any indicator, the next wave of e-bikes may feel less electric and more… old school?
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Environment
Elon Musk claims Tesla delivered its first car fully autonomously from factory to customer
Elon Musk claims Tesla has delivered its first car fully autonomously from the factory to a customer’s home “across town.”
If true, I’d argue that this is actually a bigger deal than its “Robotaxi” with supervisors, but there are still questions about the value of such a system.
The Tesla CEO announced on X:
The first fully autonomous delivery of a Tesla Model Y from factory to a customer home across town, including highways, was just completed a day ahead of schedule!!
Musk has been known to stretch the meaning of the words “fully autonomous” over the years, but he did give a few more details:
There were no people in the car at all and no remote operators in control at any point. FULLY autonomous! To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fully autonomous drive with no people in the car or remotely operating the car on a public highway.
This would be somewhat of an improvement from its recently launched Robotaxi service, which involves a Tesla employee in the passenger seat at all times, ready to hit a kill switch.
However, Musk’s last comment is not valid. Several companies have tested fully autonomous driving with no one in the driver’s seat or in the car, and Waymo has even started offering rides to paying passengers on freeways.
Highway driving is part of Waymo’s operations in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, although it is currently only available to employees through Waymo’s internal app in the latter two markets.
Musk says that a video of the milestone is coming soon.
The milestone comes after Tesla has been moving its vehicles autonomously from the end of the line to its delivery lots at factories in the US for the last few months.
Electrek’s Take
With in-car supervisors at all times and numerous issues arising in just the first few days of operations, Tesla’s Robotaxi launch fell short of expectations. For anyone who had previously experienced Tesla’s Supervised Full Self-Driving or a more comprehensive product like Waymo, it didn’t feel special.
An autonomous drive with no one in the car, including highway driving from the factory to a customer’s home, can be more impressive, albeit with some potential caveats.
“No people in the car at all and no remote operators in control at any point.” In some sense, Tesla’s FSD and Robotaxi programs would be able to do that too, it’s just that Tesla is not confident that they can do it reliably enough over long periods of time to remove the supervision.
Which raises the question: what’s different with this?
No one in the car, so Tesla doesn’t take the safety concerns as seriously? That would be weird, as the safety of people outside of the vehicle, aka other road users, also needs to be considered.
It’s possible that Tesla tested the particular route for this drive several times and then remotely, even potentially with a trailing car, as it was spotted several times in recent months, monitored it with someone ready to stop it at all times.
It wouldn’t be that far from what Tesla already operates, and not something scalable until we see data that shows Tesla can consistently do this safely over hundreds of thousands of miles.
Ultimately, that remains the main issue. Tesla is big on making videos and making showy statements when it comes to self-driving, but it has never released any relevant data. Ever. Let’s see it.
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