Tesla still owns US EV market but is losing market share, shows new data
S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that shows Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market share.
But when you had close to 100% of the market, there’s only one way to go, and that’s down.
For years now, Tesla has dominated the electric auto market in its home country. It is expected that Tesla’s hold on the market will erode as more EV options hit and help grow the US market, but for now, the US EV market is still extremely dependent on Tesla’s production and deliveries.
For the entire year of 2020, Tesla vehicles accounted for 79% of new electric vehicles registered in the United States. In 2021, that number went down to 69.95%, but that’s still impressive with EV delivery volumes significantly increasing throughout the year along with Tesla’s prices.
Now in 2022, new data released by S&P Global Mobility today shows that Tesla still dominates with 65% of market share this year through the first nine months:
Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.
Out of the more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Tesla vehicles.
When you look into the luxury EV market (over $50,000), Tesla’s dominance is even clearer with 85% market share.
S&P Global Mobility predicts that the number of EV models available in the US will grow from 48 at present to 159 by 2025.
Tesla is expected to only contribute a single additional vehicle, the Cybertruck, to those 100+ new EV models, but S&P says that it will still only marginally affect Tesla, which is expected to still grow its volume during that time.
Stephanie Brinley, associate director of AutoIntelligence for S&P Global Mobility, commented:
Before you feel too badly for Tesla, however, remember that the brand will continue to see unit sales grow, even as share declines. The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it will continue to be, so long as its competitors are bound by production capacity.
However, some of those new EV models from other automakers are expected to reach high-volume production within the next three years and start challenging Tesla’s dominance in the US.
In fact, S&P thinks that Tesla’s US EV share will drop to below 20% of the overall market by 2025 which means that either Tesla will have to falter or the rest of the industry will have to go all out in the next three years. Or more likely both.
Electrek’s Take
When you basically own the whole market, there’s only one way, and that’s down. So if I were Tesla, I wouldn’t worry too much.
It’s all about production volume. Whichever automaker is able to produce compelling EVs in large volume is going to dominate, and so far, that’s Tesla. There’s no doubt about it.
It’s important to note that Tesla dominates the EV market in the US right now, but the EV market is itself just about 5% of the US light vehicle market.
By the time there are a few dozen EV programs that have production capacities near a million units, the EV market will take a majority of market shares.
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Compton, California, has unveiled 25 new electric school buses – the school district’s first – and 25 Tellus 180 kW DC fast chargers.
Compton Unified School District (CUSD) in southern Los Angeles County is putting 17 Thomas Built Type A and eight Thomas Built Type C electric school buses on the road this spring. In addition to working with Thomas Built, CUSD also collaborated with electrification-as-a-service provider Highland Electric Fleet, utility Southern California Edison, and school transportation provider Durham School Services.
Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean School Bus Program awarded funds for the vehicles in the program’s first round. EPA also awarded CUSD funds for the third round of the program and anticipates introducing an additional 25 EV school buses in the future.
“I can’t stress enough how vital grants like these are and the need for continued support from our partners in government at the state and federal level to fund additional grants for school districts and their transportation partners that are ready to deliver and operate zero-emission buses,” said Tim Wertner, CEO of Durham School Services.
CUSD, which serves Compton and parts of the cities of Carson and Los Angeles, currently serves more than 17,000 students at 36 sites. The district has a high school graduation rate of 93% and an 88% college acceptance rate. One in 11 children in Los Angeles County have asthma, which makes the need for emissions-free school transportation that much more pressing.
Read more: Thomas Built Buses debuts its next-gen electric school bus
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After cutting lease prices by $200 this month, the Rivian R1S is now surprisingly affordable. It may even be a better deal than the new Tesla Model Y.
Rivian cuts R1S lease prices by $200 per month
Rivian’s R1S is one of the hottest electric SUVs on the market. If you haven’t checked it out yet, you’re missing out.
With some of the best deals to date, now may be the time. Rivian lowered R1S lease prices earlier this month to just $599 for 36 months, with $8,493 due at signing (30,000 miles). The offer is for the new 2025 R1S Adventure Dual Standard, which starts at $75,900.
Before the price cut, the R1S was listed at $799 per month, with $8,694 due at signing. The electric SUV now has the same lease price as the R1T, despite costing $6,000 more.
The 2025 R1T Dual Motor starts at $69,900, essentially making it a free $6,000 upgrade. At that price, you may even want to consider it over the new Tesla Model Y.
Tesla’s new Model Y Launch Series arrived with lease prices of $699 for 36 months. With $4,393 due at signing, the effective rate is $821 per month, or just $13 less than the R1S at $834. However, the 2025 R1S costs nearly $15,000 more, with the Model Y Launch Series price at $59,990.
Rivian is also offering an “All-Electric Upgrade Offer” of up to $6,000 for those looking to trade-in their gas-powered car, but base models are not included.
| Starting Price | Range (EPA-est.) |
|
| 2025 Rivian R1S Dual Standard | $75,900 | 270 miles |
| 2026 Tesla Model Y Launch Series | $59,990 | 327 miles |
To take advantage of the Rivian R1S lease deal, you must order it before March 15 and take delivery on or before March 31, 2025.
The 2025 Rivian R1S Dual Standard Motor has an EPA-estimated range of up to 270 miles. Tesla’s new Model Y Launch Series gets up to 327 miles.
Which electric SUV would you choose? Rivian’s R1S or the new Tesla Model Y? If you’re ready to check them out for yourself, you can use our links below to find deals on the Rivian R1S and Tesla Model Y in your area.
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Tesla says it can deliver new orders for the refreshed Model Y within two weeks in China. Is the automaker already experiencing a demand problem with the new Model Y?
Last month, Tesla launched the new Model Y in China. The vehicle features an updated design and new features that bring it closer to the recently refreshed Model 3.
Tesla has now started delivering the Long Range AWD updated Model Y in China this week.
But along with the start of deliveries, Tesla also opened orders for the non-Launch edition and the Standard Range RWD:
There were rumors coming from China that Tesla managed to get hundreds of thousands of orders for the new Model Y, which is not impossible since it would be just a few months of production for the best-selling EVs, but now Tesla’s updated configurator raised questions about these rumors.
Tesla says it can deliver a new Model Y RWD order placed today in “2 to 4 weeks” in China.
The Long Range AWD Model Y takes a bit longer at “6-10 weeks” for new orders.
Based on insurance data, Tesla’s deliveries in 2025 are currently down about 7,000 units compared to the same period last year.
Electrek’s Take
There’s no doubt that the Model Y changeover is going to hurt Tesla in Q1. The question is, by how much?
I am surprised to see that you can place an order right now and get on in just 2-4 weeks. It does point to soft demand for the RWD version, at least.
It’s going to be interesting to track deliveries through March. Tesla will need to deliver over 50,000 vehicles next month to arrive at similar levels as it did last year.
It looks like the production ramp is going well, so demand might be the bigger factor.
As for the Model 3, Tesla is already pulling all the demand levers in order for the sedan to contribute, but everything points to the new Model Y being the different maker.
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