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Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we’re still awaiting the first big splash.

While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.

Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?

We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who’s likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.

Here’s how they voted — and what they had to say about their picks.


Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?

Yes: 7
No: 4
New York Yankees: 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
San Francisco Giants: 2

Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he’ll get. Either way, he’ll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.

“He gambled and showed up, but I’m going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast,” one voter said of the California native. “Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me.”


Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?

Trea Turner: 7
Carlos Correa: 5

There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.

“I think his [Turner’s] skill set ages the best,” one voter said. “Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn’t slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner’s athleticism any day.”


Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?

Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2
Correa: Yankees 4, Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3, Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1
Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers 2, Giants 2
Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox 4, Giants 4, Dodgers 2, Yankees 1, Cubs 1

Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco’s public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there’s no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason’s shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.

“Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to sit on his hands,” said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don’t get one of them.”

“I just think if the Giants don’t get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?,” another voter responded.” If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one.”


Yes: 4
No: 8

The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn’t do something else soon after losing him.

“I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they’ll move to quickly replace him,” a voter said.


Yes: 9
No: 3

On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.

“Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu],” one executive said.


Which top pitcher after Verlander and deGrom will provide the most value: Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker or Chris Bassitt?

Bassitt: 5
Rodon: 5
Senga: 2

The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt’s ERA has been higher than Rodon’s in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.

“I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value,” one voter said.

“It’s really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet,” another voter said.

Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?

Giants: 3
Phillies: 2
Texas Rangers: 2
Dodgers: 2
Red Sox: 1
Yankees: 1
Cubs: 1

The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series — and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.

“I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season,” one voter opined, “but I don’t see why they won’t again. Bruce Bochy didn’t unretire to sit at home in October. This year they’ll add pitching. You can count on that.”


Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?

Sean Murphy: 3
Pablo Lopez: 3
Lucas Giolito: 2
Bryan Reynolds: 2
Corbin Burnes: 2
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1
Kolten Wong: 1

Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn’t explain his choice — but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.

“Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board,” one evaluator said. “With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul.”


How much do MLB’s 2023 rule changes impact your offseason’s decision-making: a lot, some or not at all?

Not at all: 6
Some: 4
A lot: 0

Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager’s meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don’t have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.

“Obviously, you can’t hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don’t know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes — both behind the plate and on the bases,” one voter said. “I don’t think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term.”

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Rangers rally past Flyers but lose captain Miller

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Rangers rally past Flyers but lose captain Miller

NEW YORK — Mika Zibanejad tied it late in the third period, and the New York Rangers killed off two penalties in overtime on the way to beating the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in a shootout on Saturday.

The comeback for just a fifth win in 18 home games this season potentially came at a great cost, with captain J.T. Miller leaving in pain after taking a big hit from Nick Seeler with just over eight minutes left. Miller seemed to be favoring his right arm/shoulder as he skated off and went down the tunnel for medical attention.

Miller was already out when Zibanejad scored on a late power play following Rasmus Ristolainen‘s delay-of-game penalty for putting the puck over the glass. Penalties to Artemi Panarin and Scott Morrow in OT put the Rangers on the kill, but Igor Shesterkin made four of his 28 saves after regulation.

Panarin scored twice and had the shootout winner in his return after sitting out Thursday night at St. Louis because of an illness. The Rangers fell behind, allowing three goals in less than four minutes and another before the second period ended, then Vincent Trocheck got things rolling in the third.

Travis Sanheim had a goal and an assist, and Denver Barkey picked up his first two career points in his NHL debut for Philadelphia. Samuel Ersson allowed four goals on 27 shots, plus two more in the shootout, and he and the Flyers lost for the fifth time in six games.

Aleksei Kolosov was recalled from the minors to back up Ersson because Dan Vladar is banged up, general manager Daniel Briere said. Barkey was filling in for injured winger Christian Dvorak.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Sources: Dillingham signs 5-year deal with ASU

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Sources: Dillingham signs 5-year deal with ASU

Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has signed a new five-year contract that will average nearly $7.5 million over the course of the deal, sources told ESPN on Saturday.

The deal prioritized resources for the staff, as the salary pool increases $11 million, which puts it near the top of the Big 12.

The extension takes Dillingham out of the conversation for the Michigan job. He had been in the top group of candidates considered for it.

The deal remains for five years, as longer ones aren’t allowed by Arizona state law, but there are incentives to extend the contract up to 10 years. The deal is pending board approval.

Dillingham signed a new deal a year ago that made him the second-highest-paid coach in the Big 12 in 2025. While there are increases in salary, the heart of this new deal was resources for the program.

“We have the perfect coach for ASU,” a school source said. “We want to give him the tools to do his job the best way possible. That’s giving him resources to put into the staff and program and giving him longevity.”

The deal shows how Arizona State has prioritized football in recent years, as it won the Big 12 last season and reached the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history. It marked the first time the Sun Devils won a conference title outright since 1996.

It is also significant for athletic director Graham Rossini, who made it clear this week that retaining Dillingham was the top priority.

As the Michigan job lingered in the wake of Sherrone Moore’s firing, Dillingham got emotional talking about Arizona State. He is a graduate who long called the school his dream job and said on Dec. 13, “I love this place.”

He added: “That doesn’t change how I feel about here. That doesn’t change that my sister’s my neighbor. That doesn’t change that my parents live three doors down. … [Michigan] is one of the best jobs in America, it’s an unbelievable brand, an iconic brand, so a great opportunity for somebody.”

Arizona State is 22-16 under Dillingham, including a 19-7 record over the past two seasons. The Sun Devils play Duke in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl on Dec. 31.

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Sooners’ errors key big blown lead, loss to Bama

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Sooners' errors key big blown lead, loss to Bama

NORMAN, Okla. — Back in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019, No. 8 Oklahoma earned an unwanted distinction Friday night. After squandering a 17-point advantage in a 34-24 loss to No. 9 Alabama, the Sooners now own the two largest blown leads in playoff history.

A month after Crimson Tide miscues fueled the defining win of Oklahoma’s 2025 season on Nov. 15, Alabama flipped the script inside Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, feasting on errors by quarterback John Mateer and the Sooners’ special team to bounce the hosts in the CFP first round and secure a Rose Bowl quarterfinal date with No. 1 Indiana on Jan. 1.

Down 17-0 early in the second quarter, the Crimson Tide scored on five of their next seven possessions and rattled off 27 unanswered points to match the largest comeback in CFP history, tying the 17-point deficit Georgia overcame to top Oklahoma in a double-overtime, Rose Bowl thriller on New Year’s Day 2018. According to ESPN Research, teams that have led by 17 or more in a CFP game are 28-2 all time. The two losses belong to the Sooners.

Additionally, Friday’s result marked the program’s second-largest blown lead at home since Oklahoma Memorial Stadium opened in 1923. Winless in five playoff trips since 2015, Oklahoma now holds the most losses of any program in CFP history.

“We had the ability and the opportunities to overcome it all even in just the last several minutes of the game, despite some just incredibly critical mistakes,” Sooners coach Brent Venables said. “But it just wasn’t in the cards for us tonight.”

The Sooners’ adopted team motto this fall was “Hard to Kill.” On the same night rap legend 50 Cent performed inside Oklahoma Memorial Stadium with those words emblazoned on his sweater, the Sooners buried themselves with a parade of errors.

An Oklahoma offense that began the postseason ranked 90th nationally scored on three of its first four possessions. By the time wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III caught a 7-yard touchdown from Mateer to open a 17-0 lead with 10:51 remaining in the second quarter, the Sooners had forced three consecutive three-and-outs and were outgaining Alabama 135-12.

After Alabama responded with a nine-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, the dynamics of the second meeting between the two programs in the past 34 days swung on three plays.

Facing third-and-3 from midfield, Mateer evaded a sack and rolled out of the pocket with open space in front of him. He could have run for a first down. Instead, Mateer fired 40-plus yards downfield to running back Xavier Robinson, who failed to haul in the throw. On the next snap, Oklahoma punter Grayson Miller dropped his punt attempt and turned the ball over on downs, setting the stage for a 35-yard field goal from Alabama’s Conor Talty that cut the lead to 17-10.

“Field position against an Oklahoma team is so critical with their defense, so that was huge,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. “That was really huge for us.”

On the ensuing series, Alabama ran a disguised defensive look that appeared to confuse Mateer. With a safety dropped into coverage and Oklahoma wide receiver Keontez Lewis streaking downfield, Mateer fired, inexplicably, to no one other than Alabama defensive back Zabien Brown, who intercepted the pass and streaked down the Sooners sideline for a 50-yard pick-six.

Suddenly, the game sat level at 17-17 with 1:18 remaining in the second quarter. Of the 15 teams that have gone behind by at least 17 in the first half of a CFP game, the Crimson Tide became the first not to be trailing, courtesy of Mateer’s fourth interception in his past two games.

“I got tricked, and it’s pretty bad,” Mateer said. “I mean, you watch the tape. It was obvious it wasn’t a Cover 0. I got tricked, and it happens sometimes. But when you get tricked, you’ve got to mitigate the damage, and I didn’t do it.”

DeBoer described Alabama’s first-round win as “the opposite of the first game back at home.” Indeed, the Crimson Tide were statistically dominant in Oklahoma’s 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa last month. But the Sooners left with a signature win by taking advantage of mistakes.

In Friday’s rematch, the roles reversed. Second-half touchdowns from Lotzeir Brooks and Daniel Hill thrust the Crimson Tide to a 34-24 lead with 7:24 remaining. Pushing to close the gap, Oklahoma reached field goal position twice in the final three minutes, setting the stage for Lou Groza Award winner Tate Sandell, who had converted on each of his past 24 field goal attempts.

Battling gusting winds, Sandell pushed the first attempt — a 36-yarder — wide left. Ninety seconds later, he came up short on a 51-yard attempt, his first miss from 50-plus yards this season.

Sandell’s pair of misses were the final markers of a night that simply stopped going Oklahoma’s way following a scorching opening 20 minutes. After stunning wins over Tennessee and Alabama in November, and the similarly astonishing appearance of 50 Cent in Norman on Friday night, the Sooners ran out of magic, ultimately beaten at their own game by Alabama.

“When we needed to, we couldn’t pull one out like we have in several other games this year,” Venables said.

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